ES test of 1016 likely

Quick conclusion: A test of 1016 is probable. There is now R at around 1032 and 1035 on the way to the 1044 target that everyone is talking about. Now its only 5:10 AM as I start writing this so things can change, but this is where we are right now.

In the SPX vs ES chart (see last chart for SPX) note that spx 20/50 MA is 1028/1010 vs ES 1026/1027... need to watch that.

Details for chart below:
MACD not telling us anything much different so I removed it from chart to avoid clutter.

Grey ovals show heavy resistance at 1035/37 (Triple test). So ES might not hurdle the 1037 on this trip, if at all. Notice also that the prior 2 tests of 1035 the ES was above the yellow support line (which is now resistance). Now, however, to get to 1037 ES must penetrate the yellow R trendline also (probably around 1032), making the task tougher.

Also note the downtrend R line in the RSI. The stoch is throwing a semi-bullish signal that conflicts with RSI but unknown if stoch will turn down at yellow oval. Charts suggest it stoch probably will go down but something to watch. If it does turn down then we have a bearish stoch cross confirming the RSI. The RSI downtrend R line must be respected until broken. Its possible for stoch to go up but still not break the RSI R line.

The dotted yellow lines so potential paths of price movements.

At this time, I'm not calling necessarily for a trend change, but a test of the important 1016 area seems likely and is very possible. Hopefully that test will happen during regular market hours, not after hours.

The salmon colored trendline is newly drawn to support a more bullish case (many chartists would delete the yellow line and replace with the salmon one, I'm not doing that because the yellow trendline is more significant with 7 touch points vs. 2 for the pink). The salmon trendline can be considered a speedline, but there are other speedlines (higher) not shown, that I posted in an ealier posting.





Below is a zoomed out view of the same chart that shows SEVEN points (not two) touching the yellow trendline, making it rather valid.



Below is an SPX chart not ES




* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".