Friday ramblings / Thurs eve futures

More frequent updates are made at http://twitter.com/christopherstoc


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thurs ramblings (and Wedn eve ES futures)

More frequent updates are made at http://twitter.com/christopherstoc


Below are some other updates, but see twitter for live postings more frequently.  Just send me a request to follow christopherstoc on twitter

933
SWINGS: K up at 5340 from 5290 yest close,,, WLT up at 7813 from 74.50, sso up at 3630 from 3485, ARO up at 2783 from 2715




827 AM
my WLT long is up 3.70 now at 78.00 from 75.20


[08:00:08] Chris: i'll sell 75% of sso from 3495
near 3640ish, ES 1090, and hold rest for higher



* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

I'll also be Posting on Twitter... ID is christopherstoc

9:39 AM
Right now, I'm posting most things on twitter instead of here.
So, if you want to follow me on twitter, my twitter ID is christopherstoc.





Hi fellow traders,

I've had several people suggest that twitter is an effective means for all of us to share ideas. I'll begin posting via twitter, but will also use the blog at http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/ for longer messages and details.

So, if you want to follow me on twitter, my twitter ID is christopherstoc.

Chris

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tuesday's ramblings

0356
look at HD 3 day candel.... big engulfing bullish candle today there

0351
taking the 2.8% profit in HD here on half of remaining shares, will hold other half

0347
stopped out of csco, breakeven there too, can always re-enter,,, still holding 2.8% profits in HD tho

0344
exiting this gold short,,,, for small loss, about 1/10 of 1%, near breakeven,,,, holding some HD overnight, might hold some csco overnite if not stopped out of csco

0324
HD hit over its target 3397,,, still holding it long

0247
there are the new ES high of days, expected earlier

0219
HD target is now 3392, as i take a few shares profits here into strength 3354 from 3310 cost,, saving other shares for more

0215
if MM want to be really nasty, they will break over the HD high from yest on first try...trying rite now,,,pennies away...

0212
GOLD has broken lower from its coil, moving up to backtest here

0211
if that high breaks,,,it will trigger nice upside pop as stops r run, shorts cover

0210
HD continues to go after yesterdays high of day... last 3342 about 8 cents away :D

0207
GOLD breaking down finally.... GLD stall at .86 or .74 support

0206
HD and CSCO long are working good tho

0204
if this GOLD will break down, it would be nice,,,still short, still see lower

0153
the ES test here of 15min R is impt... if it breaks over the 15min DTL then should test HOD or make new high of day,,, bias is still up

0123
i'm bullish intraday until it breaks n sustains under it

0123
the 1049 ES continues to hold for last hours

1259
possible bear HS forming in GOLD 3min

1250
we could make a higher hi intraday still, per my charts..... or test todays high

1247
i still see another pop up in es spx

1245
watching to see if ES holds 1049,,,last 1051,,, support at 1049 could give a bounce up

1224
i see no reason to exit csco or HD long,,, will take profits on 25% shares in HD just to lock some gain in,,,

1217
CSCo finally waking up,,, last 23 up from 2280 stuck zone

1216
the HD successfully put in the 3 white soldiers mentioned an hour ago, with a 4th green candle now,,,

1210
GOLD falling :)


 
1206
the ES has a bullish confirmation of the inv hammer candle, with a 60 min close over the 1054 mentioned at 10AM

1205
HD is going after yesterday's high,, last 3325, trgt 3353, for a break even higher and a key reversal day bullish / engulfing candle possible..........

1159
covering short in 25% shares in GLD at breakeven to reduce risk, have lotsa shares, the last addition accomplished it avg down cost objective, holding 75% shares

1158
long HD and csco, HD green,, csco giving fits near breakeven, GLD behaving now, giving expected breakdown

1156
 i see poss breakdown in 8 minutes intraday, hence the premium paid for short

1155
GLD short basis cost now 117.05

1154
added 117.22not .27,,, paying premium

1152
adding GLD shorts lim 117.27 if able, last 11722

1127
3min ES has bull inv HS with 1064 target,,, if it plays out, last 1051

1126
HD 60min is trying to form a 3 white soldiers bullish pattern

1124
GLD hit 1707 near the 1705 trgt from before and bounced as expected,,,still see a break lower

1123
HD and CSCO long trades still valid, for me,,, gold short acting as expected too for now

1119
a 60min ES close over 1055 pref 1057 would be bullish ES

1118
the ES is exhibiting the "bullish" aspect of the shoot star invertd hammer mentinoed earlier....

11116
ES has just broken higher over its 3min DTL,,,and backtested it with support 1051,,, watching reaction to see if holds backtest

1111
GLD 117.05 is support and stall bounce there likely if it goes there,,,still expect a break lower after any bounce there, last 117.32

1106
i still like HD and CSCO long for now, intraday

1053
GOLD has now setup 15min divergences and possibly has made its high of the day,,,watching because GLD might want 118.20, last 117.25,,,still short GOLD for now

1051
the ES 60min has a shooting star candle, but this can be bearish or bullish in this formation. Why? because ES is in a downtrend 60 min, and shoot stars (inverted hammers) can be bullish in downtrends

1014
adding HD long 3295

1011
LONG in HD 3286 limit if filled, last 3291

Tues
948 \
I am SHORTING gold, short term, want long later, via GLD 117.00,,,, using 2x # of shares since GLD is a 1x instrument

Tuesday 9:10 AM
I'll buy some sso 33.27 if able pre-market, about 1042 ES, last 1044 ES

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday eve / Tues

Monday 4:46 PM
i've taken some SMALL swing long trades in CSCO and HD, both look like they have a bounce up in the coming hours

CSCO 22.35,,HD 33.21

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday ramblings

0354
exiting gold long swing for now for profit,,, taking loss on dig, profit on dug

0337
dow is "only" down 54 points,,,BEN may try to close green

0334
here comes pump up... es 1079

0311
back in DIG 2787, short term,, still have DUG too, hedged

0255
ES hit the 1080 target,,, now looks like spx wants a small bounce up first, before any signif decline, per 15min charts,, spx last 1083

0249
KR is holding up ok on this decline in spx,,,any spx bounce should be better in KR

0215
horiz R here at 1085 too ES,,watching here

0213
1087 ES resist, last 1084

0208
stop 2063/2073 for now in KR

0206
LONG in KR 2082, short term

0202
i might want sds at 3475, watching

0149
stop 4281 in smn 50% of shares to guar a profit

0148
theres the expected es 1082,,,still see lower to 1080/.78

0141
tighteneing my stop in DGP long gold to 30.97 to lock some profits if stopped out, on 1/2% but can always re-enter

0136
last 2 candles in ES 60min bearish pattern setting up,, with a close under the low of last hour confirming bearishness if it comes

0135
bulls in trouble here,,,they must hold es 1084/82...looks like it will break lower in coming minutes hoours

0121
if ES 1082 doesnt hold, bulls in trouble

0115
gold is pushing up somewhat here, tho narrow range tday

0113
ES continues to weaken the last hour.... more whipsaw expected still, for me

0106
out of EUO euro short for now,,,will look to re-enter,,, stopped out and took profits,, still long GOLD dgp

1241
watching reactions at es 1081 1083

1240
the mini trend up support line in ES is still valid but expecting at least a test of that (down ES)

1225
stopped out of hpq breakeven for now,,,after taking miniscule profit on a piece of it

1222
SMN here 4263 trying

1206
taking a few scalp profits in HPQ here, nothing impressive, stop moved to breakeven for now

1144
DGP gold stops set at about a 1% loss if stopped out,, can always re-enter

1143
EUO is at 2.7% profit, stop set at 2.5% profit is stopped out, can always reeenter,,, DGP swing is only at 0.3% for now...

1137
there is a 60min uptrend support line in ES that is holding

1135
HPQ has marginally broken higher out of coil as expected, but this is unconfirmed, can easily move lower, as the break is small for now,,, larger move up still could backtest down again,, some chop could be seen

1131
gold GLD DGP have possible bullish 3 day morning star pattern, needs to be confirmed tomorrow or any other subsequent day with a close over todays high

1124
HPQ is touching the R line in the coil now,,,,

1122
adding more hpq

1122
HPQ is in a 15min coil, still expecting a break to upside, last 4635

1042
if dig can get a 5min close over 2871 it should give a nice pop up,, last 2865

1032
this DIG DUG oil is not for the faint of heart, but fun volatile,,, DIG shortterm trade still valid

1014
trying DIG here 2845, short term only, want to switch back to dug later, still in dug from 59

1007
non-ewave analysis also suggests higher spx at this moment, to me, last 1083

954
i'm going long HPQ 4653

907
interesting that NQ/QQQQ are up while ES/SPY SPX is down

906 AM
Gold is up and euro is down this morning, good for the gold long and euro short portfolio positions.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday ramblings / Thurs eve futures

0410
i'm still bearish mid-term, expecting a lower high,,,spx could see a rally up to 1139 to 1150, time will tell,,, charts suggest some sideways motion firstnunless there is some significant gap on monday

0407
SX has a bullish piercing 2 day candle pattern with todays big green candle, SPY almost has the more bullish engulfing, qqqq have piercing bullish but also made a higher hi today than yest

0348
stop 2267 in swy to take a smaller than wanted profit if stopped

0259
long SWY here 2260 stop 2246 low risk

0247
stopped out of IBM last trade 124.50...loss,,, took profit on first IBM trade grrr

0219
i'm long gold, i know many here like it,,, but i'm also watching out for possible lil bear HS forming in daily.....

0214
out of ACN, took loss at 3796,,,, still in IBM

0204
ES 15min broke over its intraday downtrend line, and is backtesting now,,, still see higher ES for now,, last ES 1081

0155
filled ibm at 125.11

0151
buying a starter position in ibm here 125.15

0147
I am close to buying more IBM long, here at 124.97 is valid, but waiting to see if it drops first,,,, close to a buy setup, have an early buy setup now

0129
right now, intraday, charts are conflicting,,, i prefer to wait for the declines and go long when they base for intraday trades today, instead of trying to short,,,, daily momen down, 60 min up, 15min choppy.... if charts change then i would look to short

0103
Looking to re-enter IBM long if charts suppport it, no entry yet tho they suggest IBM has more up, to 126 target, last 124.75

1255
back in EUO again 2379

1219
ACN long at 3823

1211
stopped out of MRK for now, took loss on that one

1158
stop 3197 in MRK,,, that would be a LOSS if stopped but can always re-enter,,,loss offset by KFT and IBM and gold for net profits

profits locked in both IBM and KFT,,, still have gold dgp and MRK

125.18 IBM stop last .,22

stop 124.96 on most IBM to lock guar profits

took KFT profits 2929

2129 stop

1144
stop 2921 on most of KFT to guar profit if stopped

1125
spx stall at 1092 is likely

1117
i like IBM long,,, and its giving a bullish piercing candle daily,, will likely transition out of MRK and KFT and possibly add to IBM

1027
long IBM 123.67

959
KFT long swing from yesterday is just a little over cost,,, adding more KFT long here 2910

906am
ES was unable to hold the 5AM gains and declined all the way down to 1057, right near the prior 1056 low. last 1060. we'll have to watch and see if a rally forms, if 1056 holds and a bear HS forms then ES could rally to 1113 or 1144...

5:11 AM
it's only 5AM so too early to tell but ES is up now 7 points,,, perhaps the new long swing yesterday in KFT and MRK will give a pop up today,,expecting lower levels later after a bounce

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thurs ramblings (and Wedn eve ES futures)

0356
grr no shares avail to short VXX,,,order didnt go thru

0355
shorting small VIX overnite 3390 here

0352
taking a small long position overnite in KFT 2924,,,,

0341
i will keep some small long positions overnight in MRK and DD unless stopped out.... VXX long and short continues to be the best trade with best profits,,,re-investing those in mrk dd and gold long

0254
traders can make money long but it generally portends for lower prices in the coming weeks, these patterns, its rough on 401k long term holders

0253
this is very tough to read,,, all my stuff says that institutions MM are selling here and the letting prices up as shorts are trapped,,, that is price increases are from daytrade shorts not real money,,, my software continues to suggest that MM and Institut are distributing here, selling

0247
right now VIX has shoot star bearish almost a gravestone doji on daily candle

0246
bears want the VIx must repair itself b4 days end...it is more bearish in VIX than the spx is bullish,,,,

0243
3294 is still MRK trgt,,, 3252 last,,

0240
MRK is pushing up on the daily R in its wedge,,,unsure if it can break on this try,,,,

0237
MRK and DD continue valid... taking profits on way up, some scalp, saving some for larger targets

0236
ES could get 1096 today methinks, last 1088

0220
DD is breaking higher,,,made new high of day as expected....looking to take profits today on it

0201
going long DD here,,,, yes it is at HOD,,, charts suggest breakout up possible, momentum trade,, DD 3646

0143
MRK targets are 3257 then 3290, last 3238

0131
MRK has just broken over its intraday DTL

0128
i just got stopped out on that one...EUO will look for reentry later,,,loss

0122
i shorted vxx at 3430 but by the time i typed this it dropped to 3366

0111
charts are forming bull diverg in spx,,,,careful shorting down here imho,,, spx 1076

0103
my MRK stop at .87 was not hit...will lower to .84 temporarily,,, a better stop would be under .73 but keeping .83 for now

1213
if we exclude the crazy downspike in MRK, it is in a bull falling wedge daily, but of course that could convert to a bear down channel....indicators suggest that MRK may try to break higher in the coming hours or days but i'm not willing to risk more than i've set my stop at thus far, at 31.87. last 32.18, cost 32.40

1200
GOLD long and EURO short are doing fine

1200
MRK is deterioriating here, i may exit if it doesnt repair, staying long for now with same stop 3187,,,may exit b4 that,,, looking for a backtest up on this recent decline to see reactino then decide to hold or exit

1146
MRK 10min has a nice poss bull asc triangle hence my long position there,,among other reasons indicators

1101
LONG MRK 3240

1057
stopped out sso, took small scalp profit

1055
sso stop 3603 to guarantee at least small profit

1052
right now my charts suggest more up in spx

1047
sso 3577 trying

9:52
i'm buying EUO short euro for swing, 24.69 stop 23.44 for now

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

wednesday ramblings (and tues night futures)

0359
exiting vrsn,,,taking a loss,,, about 30 cents

0340
as expected, THEY are going for a green close, albeit small if achieved

0301
if VRSN can get a 4min close over 2818 then it should pop up, last 2814

0255
fwiw,my screener is flashing lots of individual stocks to "go long day"...but haven't looked at them,,,the screen is suddenly filled with them,,, whipsaw out here

0246
VRSN has a bear HS in 3min, but other signals suggest it could fail,,,i remain long vrsn for now

0239
intradayk i think spx wants another pop up in coming minutes hours, last spx 1113

0230
i'm not ready to add shorts yet at 1114spx

0223
GOLD DGP GLD appears moving off its lows,,,

0206
time for some gold,,, DGP at 30.88,,, swing,, starting positino will add later

0200
ES hit 1117 so far, close to the 1119 target....wtaching for directino fronm here

0148
in VRSN long for now, 2822

0135
out of DFS small loss,,,looking for other better enteries,,, remain long the TRV in profit zone

0129
stop .47 on DFS a few cents under breakeven,,,,

0122
selling 50% of TRV here 5022 trgt to lock some profit... wild ride lol

1237
spx may want 1133 DTL R test, last 1111

1228
sso triggered an auto program trade at 3748,,,watching that too

1227
ES 1118 could happen, why i sold most puts,,last 1109

1222
of course % profits in options are misleading, always sound dramatic

1219
selling all except 5% of all my spy puts here at 6.02 vs 1.48 cost,, 406% profit

1108
long DFS 13.52,,, stop 13.21 for now

1057
i continue to use TRV to tade the spx bounces,,, TRV up 0.16% vs spx / DOW down 0.75%

8:49
Interesting action on the ES futures. After moving down to a low of 1105, they have now rebounded up at 1117.  Should be an interesting day

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tuesday's ramblings

0133
long in TRV, stronger than spx

0100
as expected, VXX is backtesting now, watching to see if it holds down or not

1244
this whipsaw is exepcted until the daily 60 and 15min charts are all aligned in the same direction

1236
VXX has broken UNDER its 10minute 15min UTL for support, so expecting lower VXX for now,, last 2734,,, it COULD pop up higher to backtest the broken UTL

1229
sso 3938 trying here

1200
taking partial profits in MRK here at .63

1134
filled short vxx 27.00

1133
shorting VXX for now at 2700,,,then will reverse long vxx later, if filled at 2700

1107
AGQ silver up 2% profit from cost,, MRK up only a little but expecting more MRK move,, silver breaking higher here

1106
60min has not confirmed bearish for me yet in spx,, i still see another boucne up, last 1138

1054
the charts suggest one more bounce in spx before agressive down,,,watching this here, last spx 1136.50

956
going long silver viz AGQ 66.08

954
shorting MRK 32.82 stop 3328, shorting MRK 32.82 stop 3328,, looking for possible long sso later

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday ramblings

0355
too many conflicting charts in spxi dont have any long or short swings in spx,,, only keeping some TBT swing

0350
spx made both the 0119 pm targets of 1128/36

0341
taking 3.5% profit on 25% shares vix,x,,,, have 25% lefrt

0339
taking 2.2% profit on 25% more shares in VXX here,,,saving rest till close

0337
2763 stop vxx,,,, 2744 last

0331
taking 1% profit on vxx short on 25% of shares

0324
i think the VIX has one more test down first, hence the vxx short attempt

0319
SHORTING the VXX 2815 for now

0304
TBT making new daily highs..... still long tbt

0302
tbt is working well,,, stopped out of qid for for loss 1721 vs 1747 for now

0247
1721 qid stop

0228
QID 1745 here stop 1723

0215
likely will at least test HOD in tbt

0215
TBT looks good here into the close, even up at 4180

0203
taking profits on 25% shares INFY 5724 vs 5694 cost

0157
VIX might want a move down to 31 to stabilize, watching, last 3311

0153
long INFY 5693

0137
to guarantee profits if stopped: sso stop 3847,, chl stop 4723

0127
as expected, VIX is now at breakout support 3324,,,still suggestions that last break higher was false,,,watchihg to see if vix holds this support or not, bias is vix down for comoing minutes

0119
1128/36 spx could happen per charts, last 1122

0114
CHL crawling higher,,, 4721 should give a nice lil pop, last 4717

0101
VIX bearish shoot star warns it was maybe false breakout higher but not confirmed,,,

0100
VIX is backtesting toward 3338 breakout area.... could have been a false breakout higher,,,watching reaction 3338 if it gets there, last 3369

1250
long CHL 4710 tite stop 4687

1239
took profits ceco 2844

1226
sso 3838 trying here


1224
CECO long 2821


1116
qqqq support 4640 ,,, watching that area,, could see more sideways before significant decline

1026
trying some DIG,,,, short term only, want DUG again later,, 3189

939
i am buying more tbt 4206, have come at lower levels from last week

911am
i'm watching to see if ES puts in a lower high under 1173/75 or not, or if it pushes above that

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Bearish SPX, expecting first target of Feb Low, simple chart

Bearish SPX, expecting first target of Feb Low, simple chart.

More comments on the chart itself. Double click on the chart to see it full size.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday ramblings / Thurs eve futures

0402
i still see some more whipsaw and consolodation before a huge move down,, then down to 1150 1050,,, monday i plan to look for entries in twm spxu etc,,, and also in the dramatic volatile VXX and DUG

0357
about 0.5% each on csco trv,,,, PAAS is up 1% and holding it swing,,, tbt up 0.25% and holding swing

0356
took small profits in csco and trv,,,out of all longs,

0332
LONG TRV into close with 4983 stop, low risk, in at 5005

0324
stopped out of vz, aboout 1% loss

0312
we "should" have gotten 1122 today,,,didnt,,, suggests more whipsaw and not total fear,,,yet

0311
not expecting a dramaticly high run up if it comes

0310
this action also has characteristics of running stops lower, with a move up in the close, short covering,,, very tricky here

0309
my software does inidcate that today was being shorted into,,, held up and shorted into, so more down very likely but i'm waiting for chart confirmations, less cross currrents

0301
long here es 1128 could work but i'm not taking a position,, already have enough longs into the close (unless stopped)

0258
stop vz 2837,,, yes a lil lower or higher would be "better",,,, set at 2837 if that doesn't hold then i'm out with a loss,,,about 1%

0250
the last lil move down looked like a small bear trap...intraday only, which is why i remain hedged long via paas csco vz (tho vz is giving me fits and not moving)

0249
VIX 3min chart has a BULLs face

0243
theres an inv bull HS in ES 3min

0242
i still like csco long for now, esp if it breaks 2493, into the close only

0238
tbt 37.43 stop for now,,,wide stop from 4165, will raise later

0236
taking a SMALL starter position swing in TBT swing at 4165,, multi-week hold

0234
well PAAS i will keep swing, it's disconnected from spx, maybe

0231
too many mixed signals, conflicting charts in daily 60m 15m for me is no mans land,,, shark waters,,, not swimming with sharks :) for swings

0230
VIX is moving up bullishly now tho (bear spx)

0229
we r almost in no-mans land for me,,,, i will only keep a few swing shorts, having taken profits on most,, will look for better entries on monday for swings

0228
ES 60min candles do have bullish tails on them....

0209
csco is behaving,,, VZ is iffy, might get stopped out on another small loss if needed on vz,,, stop just below LOD (about 10 cents uder),, PAAS setup still valid moving up

0200
PAAS could make a vertical intraday move up,,, at 2752 from 2740....

0151
going long PAAS 2740

0136
here is the ex[ected whipsaw movements,,,tricky here

0122
my charts r suggesting the spx still bounces up from this move down,,, spx 1131 last,,,,

0113
ES also hsa R at 1141, 1136

0107
locking in 3.2% in twm now on all except small piece,,, will look to re-enter,,,may not be today i reenter

0105
for the first time today, the VIX is showing weakeness,,, spx bounce expected, at 1134 last

0103
VZ has margninally managed to break thru its 15min DTL....see if it can sustain for a pop higher,,, cscso up too

1256
LOL stop hit, out of EWC at 2% profit

1256
stop 2722 EWC to lock 2% profit if stopped out

1249
my target still is 1122 spx,,,,later


1248
ES 15min does have a confirmed bull harami pattern,,,,but its contratrend of course

1247
temporarily bullish in ES if ES over 1127,, if 1127 breaks then bearish

1246
watching out for this poss bull inv HS in 3min spx es,,,

1242
grr DUG stopped out,,, around 6.5% profit,,,still have just a lil left,,,look to re-enter later

1239
6287 stop on most DUG,,,will hold a little with stop lower cuz cost is only5932

1236
i still see more down,,, but hedging long viz CSCO and VZ, which have held up in the decline,, so trading both long and short here

1228
VZ has 2 nice 60min bull hammers but not confirmed yet,,,needs 60 min close over prev bar hi

1225
csco will hit R at 2502 and stall expectd, last 2492

1224
a second csco buy prog alert, now at 2486 from 2478

1220
CSCO buy program alert,,,,alert only no program yet, last 2480, remain long

1214
VZ and CSCO longs still valid setups,,,, still in twm dug ewc

1203
taking a SMALL long position in CSCO 24.78 here, stop 24.17 for now

1142
trying SMALL position in VZ long here 2867,,,, if the DOW moves up some I expect VZ to lead,, stop 280 for now, mental stop higher just under LOW of day

1130
taking some profits on SPY options at 4.05 vs 1.48 for 273% profit,,,still have half of options

1128
DUG hit the 6350 target, partial profits taken at 7% in one day swing, holding more for 6421 but it could drop b4 then

1124
as expected, taking some TWM profit here at this R, it didnt blast thru,, 19.08 TWM,, holding rest of shares for higher

1122
1912 and 1942 are targets in TWM, but they are also R, so watching those

1121
RUSSEL is at some support here in 60min,,,watching for reaction

1120
my target is still 1122 spx, today

1113
stopped out of QLD,,,took the loss on that one 0.6%,,,,on the hedge

1104
DUG is flying higher, 6290 last up 6% profit on remaining half,  QLD down right now 0.5%

1100
6085 stop in qld for now,,,still short russel, canada, in DUG

1055
surprisingly i am trying QLD long here 6160

1045
the TWM 133t has a BULL W in it

1038
ES hit 1136 trgt, now 1134 must hold for bulls else more down

1033
possibly es 1136 trgt from 1139 then bounce unless 1136 does not hold

1024
TWM short russel should make another pop up, then prob will take profits as expect a move lower, then up again, 1863 last

1022
trying to build bull inv HS in ES spx 3min,,,what else is new lol

1014
stop was hit, sold 6188 for 4.5% profit since buying yesterday

1013
stop 6188 DUG on half

1013
DUG is slowing temporarily here, preparing to take profits at 5-6% soon, on half of shares, holding other half for 6350/6421

1011
ES resist 1139/40,,last 1138

1010
1122 spx will likely hold today if it gets there,,, last 1139,,,, for now my target is 1122

1002
VIX did not back off much,,,this could get very nasty down in spx

959
VIX is rigth at Resist here,,, spx could bounce a little, but if VIX breaks higher instead of pullback, would expect another quick drop in spx, vix 3078,,  spx 1140 last

950
Selling 25% SPY puts at 3.37 from 1.48,,, for 227% profit

942
DUG blew right thru 6167 last 6211

940
DUG continues upward spike, at 4% profit zone now, 6158 last, target is 6167 then up to 6421


938
here comes test,,,,ES 1140 is support,,,bulls need to hold it here on first test

934
took 7% profit in VXX, looking to ree-enter,,, DUG at 3% profit now with stop set to lock profits, looking maybe at TBT later, TWM at 0.7% profit now

927
 we will prob have an inside WEEK this week, often a bounce will come b4 further down, poss bounce on Monday, tho i'm not going long to trade that

922 AM
Bulls need to hold over ES 1140 early this morn else ES could selloff,


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

thurs ramblings (and Wedn eve ES futures)

0404
as i see it, the only way for much of a bounce is if they push the futures tonite, if we open flat, charts suggest more downside.... though I don't yet have a "big selloff" setup, just "more downside"

0359
UNREALIZED PROFITS, OPEN POSITIONS
VXX  3.2%
DUF  1.3%
EWC (-0.25%)
TWM (-1.3%)

I expecte EWC and TWM to move into profit zone.

0358
selling piece of vxx 2477 from 2406 cost this morn

0354
the spx has a bear harami pattern that needs confirmation with a close under 1156 in the coming days

0350
charts suggest that VIX may have put in its short term bottom at 24.30, but daily VIX still not strong enough to confirm that

0341
selling 25% of dug shares for 1.52% profit from this morn

0338
taking some vxx off here for 3.2% profit,,,from this morn

0337
holding most of this vxx, well half of it,,, vxx is volatile and give huge moves

0335
not sure we bounce much tomorrow,,,, i will prob hold swing shorts longer, take profits on pieces of them,,,, this is just the beginning of selling on my charts

0325
VXX nice,,, hit 2488 over the 2460 high,,, 2518 is target next

0311
vxx may go over the HOD 2462, last 2429

0248
vxx twm moving up

0245
EWC continues to break down,, thus far today's high was not tested, as expected

0229
vxx is marginally breaking above the coil, suggesting up, but this break doesnt count yet,,,,bias still up in vxx

0227
tension building in this VXX coil... reaction could be big in direction of break that sustains after any false moves

0218
10 min 15min bull inv HS in TWM (short russel)

0157
VXX sym triangle in 10 min chart

0149
if ES does not break under 1163 then a coil will form on the 60min,,, now we have 3 lower highs and 2 lowr lows

0121
wild whipsaw,,,vxx now down to 2485 from 24.15

0109
no confirmation in the daily charts yet, but EWC looks like it prob finished its move up with today's high of 28.29, for the coming days

0104
theres the expected  break,,,,2427 stall in vxx would be normal, last 2414

1258
vxx looks like break higher in coming minutes,,,

1249
added modest # shares EWC short ... 2711, for swing

1244
VIX has a bull harami in 60 min chart but needs a close over 25.17 to confirm (bearish spx if it does)

1242
BELOW the mkt, i'll add a little more short on EWC,,, stop mkt short at 2807

1227
the ES 1166 R still holding,,, a break over it good for a pop but still holding down.. i still see it holding for now

1219
i might add more TWM if it gets there, unsure now

1218
if TWM can get over 1804 then it should pop up,,,, last 1791

1213
if spx doesnt hold1166 then the 15min UTL support will be broken, holding so far, expecting break lower later ,,last 1167

1204
twm might want 1780 or 1774ish but safe over that,,last 1792

1202
EWC broke the coil lower as expected

1201
VXX now has a 15min bull rsi failure swing up

1159
TWM 133t chart showing a bull W

1158
DUG breakout setting up in 15min


1157
the VXX 3minute is suggesting a breakout higher in coming minutes if 2390 holds, last 2400

1162 next and bulls must hold it, i expect it to break lower after a bounce there

1153
theres the 1166 es breake as expected

1151
VXX near breakeven now but still holding... looks like upside in coming minutes hours

1148
EWC 3 min starting to coil, inside the 3min uptrend, but bias still down for me

1135
thus far, bulls have tested R three times last 3 days, and have not broken over it (or marginal break only)... so i remain bearish for now and swing short

1118
in DUG 59.23 stop 58.47 for now

1100
ES volume increasing on the selling here on last 3min bar

1032
15min ES right now has 3 lower highs, 2 lower lows

1011
continuing to build vxx at 23.97 as able

1001
vxx filled 2401

959
buying more vxx 2401 limmit if filled, last 24.10

949
correction: EWC volume is not as high as mentioned earlier,,,bad data

945
EWC volume right now is already about 1/3 of yesterdays total volume

942
i remain swing short

941
for holds over 30 minutes, i have a short setup with stop above yest high

935
vxx up nicely here, 2450 last from 2400 yest

930
poss bear eve star setup today for qqqq, watching 3 day pattern with confirm on 4th... today is day 3,,, qqq gap down presents eve star opp

922
yesterday mkt tested resist in spx and it held, now likely to test support

917
new swing shorts from yesterday are safe thus far,,, could exit here but holding longer,,,letting the market and price tell us what to do

8:48 PM
simple things to consider for now... are there bearish divergences? is the spx above or below its 20 and 50 moving averages in daily? Can it close above the 20 and 50 for 2-3 days in a row? Are the 10 20 and 50 daily MA pointed up or down?

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

wednesday ramblings (and tues night futures)

0340'
i dont see under 1160 close tho in ES

0339
VXX hit 2423 target,,,watching for it to pop up now

0334
VIX is testing R here now,,,could break higher (bearish for spx if it does)

0333
3min bear HS ES 3min

0325
to me this is a low risk swing short, if it reverses just get stopped out and take loss,,, good risk ratio for me,, spx 1170

0323
VXX over 2423 should give a nice pop up, if it gets there,,, last 2413,

0318
ES over 1166.50 bbullish,,,there is a clear uptrend channel 15min,, if support starts to break, then watching 2ndary support

0314
i know there is a bull spx cup and handle but i don't like all those small 60min candles in it.... bearish

0252
i am staying swing short

0237
SPY puts 1.48

0234
still expecting pullback in coming hours days

0233
VIX has not gone down much as SPX advnced last 20min, bearish

0211
vxx hit target,,,scalper 0.75% profit on a small piece,, not much % but 6 months bank interest LOL in 1 hour

0208
VXX stall here was expected,,,stalled 1 cent under the 2428 trgt

0206
EWC volume today is patheticly low,,, lowest since march 29 at least

0159
VXX hit 2427 right near 2428 first target,,,watching reaction now to see extent of the stalll

0146
VXX targets: 24.28, 2442, 2497,2531 2729 3103 (not all today of course)

0136
24.28 vxx target for the scalp shares,,, higher targets for rest of vxx shares.....

0132
filled. bought some vxx here 2411 for 2428 to start (same cost as other vix, just more shares, for scalp_

0131
ABOVE THE market i'll buy more vxx 24.11 now not .18 (stop mkt) for the 2428...different acct


0131
ABOVE THE market i'll buy more vxx 24.12 now not .18 (stop mkt) for the 2428...different acct


0130
VXX is volatile, not for the faint of heart....

0129
ABOVE THE market i'll buy more vxx 24.16 now not .18 (stop mkt) for the 2428...different acct


0128
moves down almost always faster more sudden and harsher yea,,,, shorting requires better timing than long

0125
ABOVE THE market i'll buy more vxx 24.18 (stop mkt) for the 2428...different acct

0123
if vxx hits 24.18 should give 24.28

0123
24.28 VXX stall expected, last 2409

0113
doubled VIX holdings,,, cost now 2411

0110
more vxx at 24.00

1258
VXX at 2405 down from 2430 but still holding it for now,,,see upside in VXX in coming hours days

1229
today is not as bullish as it seems,,,,so far, all they have done is try to test yest high,,,, watching if they make a new high today

1226
tomorrow selling still fits my model, yest i mentioned the charts suggested no big down move today

1152
ES bear lopsided HS in 3min

1136
VXX target 25.70 from 24.30 to start with,,,, 5.75% profit if achieved,,, 2nd target 28.64

1136
bull HS in 3min TWM short russel

1117
in VXX again 2422

1111
stopped out of WMT, small profit

1100
TWM has a bull diverg in 10min chart

1054
stop 5239 in WMT to lock a small profit if stopped out....last 5221

1040
in 1835 TWM

1039
1828 TWM limit reenter if filled

1031
if 5217 impt WMT support broken, if sustained then 51.83 next trgt,, testing 5217 now

1026
at least WMT and EWC are working

1022
grr stopped out TWM,,, 3% loss on that oner

1018
wmt backing down now at 5224 again

1015
TWM stop at 1822,,last 1827,,,likely stopp out,, 3% loss if stopped out,,, will re-enter again later

1013
WMT bounced up to 5235 from .17,,,watching it

954
WMT plunging now,,,, support now 5205 next

944
5224 WMT is support, stall here expected, large positions can lock in 0.3% profit on partial shares

943
WMT already down at 5226 from 5250 in 10 minutes....

935
adding more WMT shorts 52.48,, avg = 52.44

934
shorting WMT 52.40

Tues 7:04 PM
If we ignore the crazy 1056 low, and do a fib retracement from 1216.75 high to 1090.75 low (not 1056), then ES retraced almost exactly to the 62% Fib of 1167.85 (to 1169). I'm not an ewave specialist, but if Wave 1 down was 1217 to 1090 and W2 1090 to 1167, then the large Wave 3 coming would land at 966 or 889. Interestingly, non-eWave analysis points to ES targets of 955 and 865, close to the eWave targets.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tuesday's ramblings

0409
charts suggest tomorrow we might see more chop, before any large decline

0403
today was less volatile,,,, moved up steadily then down steadily not as much whipsaw

0359
a qqqq cllose around 4777 right on support, isnt good for bulls

0354
added some TWM 1880/90

0349
will buy some TWM not tza

0342
4821 qqqq short possible

0340
i'm shorting into the pump,,,will add swing shorts at close probablky

0338
vxx 2516 might work if it hits there, to reload,,,unsure, last 2542

0336
VXX stop hit for all but 25% of shares,,,, 4% profit,,,will look to re-load for swing

0331
mental stops not hit,,,expecting lower unlesss they r

0328
mental stops 1655 qid,,,, 2557 vxx

0326
preparing to take profits on shorts in case it moves up here,,,,will likely still hold some as swing

0326
impotyant test area here,,,, should determine the close up or down

0324
ES dropped down after 1158 broke, as expected

0318
VXX now up 4% in last hour profit

0311
locking 1.4% profit in qid here at support,,,,only some shares,,saving rest for lower q

0309
watching 3min bull diverg in qqqq here,,,might need to take some short cover profits,,,,, 4780 last

0307
expecting 4777 to break for at least 4747

0252
qqqq 4777ish breakout support leve, held first test

0247
47.47 qqqq target down for short, to start

0241
i'm keeping VXX EWC QID and short QQQQ all as swings, will take partial profits today

0236
vxx up 3%,,,qid up 1%,, EWC lagging at breakeven

0232
as expected ,,,1158 broken,,,watching to see if it sustains downs

0231
ES 1158 test here,,,impt,,, 9 point drop expected if it breaks lower

0223
i have a day 15min qqqq short,,,,i'm adding more q shorts here 4817

0221
1149 ES target if it breaks 1158

0219
VXX taking off,,,2521 from 2467

0218
qqqq 10min close under 4807 will give sell short signal for day

0215
taking 1% profits in vxx on 25% shares,,,need to take some profit today

0211
vxx now back to just over breakeven lol,, 2494

0207
buying back the VXX again, 2470

0158
qqqqq not looking healthy,, 4830 last

147
grr stopped out vxx for now,,,re-entry another time,, 20 cent loss

141
EWC 15min forming bear rounded top

137
EWC Canada weakening.... does Canada have less Fed $$$

126pm
"i will go down with this ship, i wont put my hands up and surrender, there will be no white flag above my door" ... -DIDO

0114
QID over 16.41 should trigger some upside

0114pm
VXX trying to move up but needs over 2508 to get going...last 2494

0107
in vxx 2487, stop 2467 for now

1224
here trying QID 1640 stop 1623

1137
stopped out of sds,,, will look to re-enter lol,, took loss there

1136
ES 15min is painting bearish hammers, VIX, other things suggest down to follow

1119
shorting canada via EWC 2780 stop 2813 for now

1110
this last move up looks like headfake tho, watching this last one, ES 1155

1054
VIX just shot from 2850 to 2930 quuickly,,, bearish spx

1051
CHRW is coiling in 3min, expecting break lower still, last 6048 after bounce up from 6030

1008
60.11 first target CHRW from 60.57, last 6029

1006
CHRW already down 20 cents since short 4 minutes ago

1002
shorted CHRW 60.57 stop 61.13 for now

957
that may have been the high of day, ES 1142/40 is target down,, too early to tell of course if 1152 HOD, just a thought, charts support possibility

954
1152 resist is holding nicely here, for now

951
here's the ES 1152,,,watching reaction....

947
stop 30.71 for now in sds, will raise later

946
got a fill on sds 31.26 (to short spx)

944
i will try sds 31.26 if able, if filled lmit

9:36
1152 ES would be a nice short if able

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday ramblings

0348
exit 1574 SWC,,,lock small profit, 13 cents or 1%

0307
shorting SWC 1587

0304
stopped out sso

0301
stop sso 4067 just over cost 4060,, no sense losing anything here,,can alway buy back

0258
 i will prob sell sso at ES 1159 for profit

0250
ES 3min is coiling now....triangle

0232
spx "should" get one more push up, last 1151

0207
spx 3min bull diverg....

0153
sso 49.59 looks good here for short tewrm trade,, still looking for short entry later

0113
now i am getting close to a short setup in spx,,,no entry yet,,, last 1151

0106
BBL broke support, headed down here

1253
i'm on sidelines in spx and qqqq until the 15 and 60 can complement and support each other, took small profit on sso not much, am now short BBL

1245
shorting BBL at 58.96

1230
out of rest of sso for now

1155
lock some profits, 25% shares, limit filled, about 0.66%

1151
only 25% shares,,,expecting it go over that higher

1148
taking partial profits sso 4120 to lock something, if filled, for 27 cents per share

1147
1170 spx seem a stretch but charts suggest spx might want it,,,

1139
else stops should trigger for a retest of HOD

1136
1158 ES stall would be normal, last 1156

1136
there is the expected break over es 1156,,,now watching to see reactino and if it holds,

1119
but for now my charts suggest last ES 1156 high will break higher

1119
ES 3min has 3 lower highs,,, if it does not stabilize then i will exit the long sso,,, watching now to see if last lowest high is broken higher or not

1112
still long sso now, tho could exit here at small profit/breakeven

1111
i likely will not have a shot setup for a holding over 20 minutes, before noon

1029
40.22 stop sso

1022
sso stop 3993

1018
VIX looks like bear flag

1012
spx may want 1171, hard to get targets in this turbulence,, looking to short when the 15min charts weaken with 60s

1005
stop 39.40 for now in sso

1005
sso 40.93 trying...want short later

Monday
8:11 AM
ES is up a whopping 50 points (4.5%), but this rally was expected. Below are 9:54, 10:54, 3:11. 3:16 coments I made on Friday warning that the Friday move down had all the markings of a bear trap with a subsequent rally. That's why I exited my swing shorts. Looking for new entry points again.

Friday 0316:this has the characteristics of a bear trap i still think,, lure in shorts then make them cover

Friday 0311i'm not adding new swing shorts here,, this could be a temp bear trap for 1-2 days... i'm still bearish just not wanting to add here

Friday 1054 i remain bearish mid-term, but a crazy rally up to 1172/1186 spx cannot be discounted (not today),,, imho,,, i plan to short rallies at the appropiate areas

Friday 954 my charts suggests that VIX needs to correct down a little and find support, then we can get a better spx move down later when the vix finds support and rebounds

 
 
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday ramblings / Thurs eve futures

0338
VIX made a new high today, spx did not make a new low

0318
prog trade just triggered long qld, and close QID for small 1.02% profit (tho i didnt take those trades)

0316
this has the characteristics of a bear trap i still think,, lure in shorts then make them cover

0311
i'm not adding new swing shorts here,, this could be a temp bear trap for 1-2 days... i'm still bearish just not wanting to add here

0305
VZ still "should" go up

0302
they r headfaking left and right here

0248
charts suggest VZ might be good for one more push up,,,2852ish from 2827

0244
qqqq back near 4881,,,,the 4852 cover profit would have worked well

0234
still long VZ,,trade premise still valid

0234
daytrade short i would cover here an look to reenter,,,decent profit here,,,could be headfake n pivot up

0220
i have a buy program warning good for next 27 minutes...warning only no program ,,, the warning have worked pretty well thus far

0207
my program trading sys triggered a sell short QQQQ 45.81 but i didn't take it....turned that one off today lol

201
i am going long strong DOW components and short on the weak ones instead of etfs today

143
picked up about 4.7% profit today long in meantime,,,all shorts closed yest

136
if VZ can get over 2837 then it should pop up some for daytrade, last 2830, cost 2823

128
in VZ long 28.23, paying premium, possible break higher setup

126
VZ long day 28.18 if filled limit

1251
3minute charts are too easily manipulated, the 60 min are more reliable imho

1251
i'm not using the 3minute charts in this environment for anything except timing entries and exits. the 60 minute spx still suggests the bias is up to me, at the moment,,,i still see more down later ,,, spx 1122

1200
vix is at a support level now, likely to break it lower to next level down

1152
stop 1108 on half of remaing AA (25%)

1149
taking 2% profits here on half of new AA, holding other half

1145
AA is beginning to coil now,,,,so watching for breakout up or down as day progresses, bias is up for now

1144
1184 stop on AA

1131
back in AA 1193

1121
stoped out at 1207 on remaing AA at 1207.

1118
QLD 5982 here could work stop 55.22 but i'm not taking it

1114
as expected below at 10:28, spx did find support at 1090 and popped back to 1118 or 38 points up

1113
taking 25% profits in AA here at 12.12,,,its at R so lock in a lil at 0.5% profit,,holding 75% shares

1111
a stall at 1211 AA and small decline is still ok,,,just over 1171 needed for now

1110
the second AA setup is a "breakout" setup

1107
i just got another "enter AA long" setup, this one safer, enter 1203 ,,,stop 11.71...but i'll keep my stop lower for now, mental stop now 1171 as AA stabilizes here


1057
but AA also has smaller poss BULL inv HS with 12.24 target.... watching both

1056
need to watch out for poss bear HeadShoulders in AA 3min....

1054
i remain bearish mid-term, but a crazy rally up to 1172/1186 spx cannot be discounted (not today),,, imho,,, i plan to short rallies at the appropiate areas

1052
my work suggests that AA is forming a base and should pop to the upside, but 12.10 must be hurdled to get any real action

1037
still in AA for now,,,wide stops

1028
spx may stall here ....theres support 1099 micro

1021
SPX 3 min bear M pattern

1020
i did no trades befre 10AM...let things settle a little,,, am in AA long but less shares and wider stops in this environment

1015
stop in AA mental 11.87,,,hard stop at 11.17

1014
doing AA LONG 12.05

1008
we are going to keep getting this whipsaw until the vix stabilizes and finds its support area

1001
i see a potential QLD trade but the stop must be around 56.50 vs 5960 curr price,,,, its NOT ready yet for me, just watching,,, could turn to QID fast lol

955
whipsaw until then

954
my charts suggests that VIX needs to correct down a little and find support, then we can get a better spx move down later when the vix finds support and rebounds

9:18 AM
it's interesting that the huge drop yesterday stopped right or near the feb low... we are going back down there in the days weeks ahead, i think



* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thurs ramblings (and Wedn eve ES futures)

0358
6102 exit qld from 6086 (i didnt


trade that)
 
0349
i exited IBM today just now for a few cents over breakeven, not holding swing

0343
IBM stop 123.93,,,either it holds here or i'm out with small loss of 0.70%....not taking chances in this craziness

0337
QLD at 60.80 has a setup but i'm not taking it...enough for 1 day,, staying out

0328
well this is a good reminder of how important stops are,,,those "emergency" hard stops set below our "mental stops"

0323
i still have 1050, 1044, 925, 875 spx as targets,,, 925 only if 1044 doesnt hold,,,will have to see reaction if we get 1044,, same targets as last week.

0314
STOP on IBM at 121.73 in case we get another surge, to limit any loss to a small one

0300
i'm very surprised,,,as bearish as i have been the last 7 days, consistently shorting swing,,,, i did not think we would see this type of 2007 action again in 2010,, i'm still surprised at over 500 down on the DOW

0256
wow ibm now only red 1% from 3% LOL crazy

0252
VIX just paused at 4/17 high, resistance,,,notice the immediate correction the next day (down vix) 4/18

0249
DOW down 691

0246
QQQQ hit my 42.00 target,,,,last 4379 from 4155 low

0245
grr i should NOT have sold all my qid day,,, still have swings short spxu

0244
DOW down 500,,, even over that 300 mentioned b4
 
0240
IBM might want 121.50 but charts suggest it will bounce before that

0239
i will do LONG IBM 125.17,,, will hold a small piece of that swing ,,, SMALL

0227
i THINK that should be it....bounce up then maybe close near low,,,but think it should hold here....1129 spx, but i have NO chart confirmation on that

0223
taking 4% day qid, 6% TYP profits now,,,, all out of qid typ for now day

0222
VIX at target....watching CLOSEfor reaction...right here

0221
ok VIX target 3175 and that will likely put a lid on the decline, last 3105

0219
DOW went over the -200,,,down 235 now

0213
spx 1115 is strong support spx,,,last 1137

0210
took some qid profits 17.21,,,,still short via the spxu sds qqqq and 25% more daytrade QID

0207
17.23 i will likely sell some qid for 2% profit

0203
but still short,,,only slowing not stopped....stop tite at 17.04 on the QID

0202
BUY program there...surprisingly,,,,could stabilize here,,charts stabilizing now

0155
wow QQQQ daily candles are


BELOW the lower bollinger band again today,,, 2

candles in a row, rare
 
0144
rasing stop to 1708 from 1703 on half shares,,,holding other half

0141
ok qqqq at support here at 4735,,,watching reaction

0135
a clear 5 waves down in ES 15min, with us in wave 5,,,,

0127
stop 17.03 on half shares in qid to lock 1% profit

0124
now THIS could finally give that elusive 60minute "qqqq bounce for long play" setup,,, after more down, not yet,,,more down first

0118
newest QID is in profit zone tho...broke for a new high of day, up 0.95% now

0115
stop .51 kft,, took loss there, 0.52%

0106
VIX is in a bearish rising wedge,,, but we all know those can be volatile and break up before down...watching that,,, also the wedge can convert to a bull vix channel (bearish for spx)...so watching reactions

1258
KFT trying to move higher,,,,29.85 is first target ,,,should stall there, will prob take some profits if able there,,,last 29.67

1248
QID is now testing HOD....watching reaction,,,still in qid

1238
in QID 16.87

1233
BUY Program warning for KFT only

1224
if KFT get 2970 it should give a nice pop up

1221
KFT 29.61 limit filled, long

1218
LONG in KFT 29.61 if able

1200
out of last sds breakeven (2 cents profit)...that one didnt pop

1148
problem for bulls is........the 60 min is NOT DIVERGING<,,,, it is also forming higher hi in the rsi,,,tho macd suspect

1146
looking for entry point LONG in MCD,,,, the bulls deserve a break today

1141
i STILL do not have the "nice" 60min bull divergence in spx to try long, nor do other indicators suggest it for me right here,,, should change after this last push down if it comes

1132
i see one more push down, then possible entry for long day,,, sds last 3138

1128
possible inv HS forming in ES 15min

1124
in more spxu 30.52 now

1119
locking 3% profits on spxu from yesterdays swing, on half of shares here,,, thats the new one from yest,,,still qqqq short from 5012

1117
should get a small bounce here at least 4863 qqqq

1109
taking some qid profits on 75% of shares here,,,think it will drop back down to re-enter,,, at 16.81 (only 0.75% profit on that one),,, still in the spxu swing from yesterday tho

1103
bulls are weaker here... vix "should have" backtested back down 15minutes ago and did not,,,, qqqq "should have" tried 4807 even 4821 and couldnt

1055
an spx 1158 on this first try would suggest more weakness (or headfake,,,watching_

1054
4807 is qqqq Resis too

1049
heres the expected stall in 4792 qqqq,,,, charts still say down after any upmove

1047
we got that expected close es under 1158 15 n 60 min cndl, and downside followed as expected, ES last 1155 and falling after poss bounce here

1046
qqqq 4797,,, prob 4793 then up then selloff,,sell program warning (same signal setup as yesterdays)

1044
the next move down should set up the "better" 60min bull diverg i mentioned yest,,,then maybe long for me (but only day for now long_)

1038
my spx target still same...if 1157 breaks then 1150 (jan hi, march low)

1033
qqqq prob stall at 4793, last 4804

1030
possible QID asc triangle and cup handle bull formations in 3min (bearish qqqq and spx)

1027
i just got a momen shift warning,, from up to down bias, incomplete just warning, with a crouching tiger bearish 78% (usually 87% is actionable),, qqqq at 4810

1025
if ES gets a 15 or 60 min close under 1159,,, dangerous for longs

1023
ES 15min has some nasty bear candles, shoot stars long tails, BUT those candles always need confirmation, with a close BELOW the low of the star candel

1016
hmmm now there is a poss bear HS 3min forming in 2- 3min qqqq, only half done, left shoulder and head

1011
,this whipsaw is typical with these chart patterns,,,the 15 and 60 not aligned so up n down

1011
as expectd, qqqq have declined some,,, still could go more....went 4832 to 4817

1007
there were some large green blocks,,,, MM may have to bring it down some before more up (so they can cover their shorts when they sold to the green sales)

1006
rigtht at a resistance point now 1168 spx,, 4830 qqqq

0939
i'm still looking to enter long but waiting for (1) 60 min bull diverg to get stronger, its weak now, or (2) wait for 60min to strengthen with 15min aligned to it

0934
in QID 16.70, this one is early entry and might be short lived

0859
spx should hold 1152/48ish,,, the 1/19 high and 3/22 low,,might want 1150 before bounce/backtest

0854
ES is down 7 points here.... why i chose to hold some swing shorts last night (wednesday),,, same as tues night,,, might get opp today to go long for a little while only,

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wedn ramblings (and Tues eve ES futures)

0402
the swing short entered yesterday worked nicely, watching this one now... still short qqqq from 50.12 also

0401
i'm just dipping my toes in the water on that swing,,, 50% position size

0400
i was not stopped out. i remain short swing. took some profits thru day of course. lets see how the new spxu swing entry at 29.77 works (currently at breakeven on that one)

0359
also another doji or narrow range day or spin top wouldnt surprise me tomorrow

0358
spx could gap up in the morn, this is often seen with morning star patterns

0354
exiting faz now, above the stop, 1277, profits locked on rest of faz (cost 12.44)

0350
my target, later, is the february lows,,, 1044/47 spx

0337
faz stop changed to 1269 from 1272,,,give it some room, almost stopped out

0332
taking a little spxu here, 2977

0326
even in 60min spx is under the 20 and 50 MA,,, i'm waiting for any long swings,,,still see more downside 'in general",,,, i dont want to go against current downtrend

0325
yes morning star bullish candle today, but they work better when there are more red candels before it,,,, needs confirmation with a close tomorrow ABOVE todays high

0315
in coming days, not necessarily today

0314
the 60min does look oversold here but still see more downside when looking at daily, 60min, other inidicators... any thoughts ?????

0309
if i am not stopped on the 29.49 sds at 30.61 then i will hold longer, overnight

0307
sds from 29.49, stop 30.61,,,, can reload later if stopped, ,,, sds swing up 5%

0301
stop 12.71 on 25% of faz,,, stop breakeven on other 25% (50% gone).... 12.71 should still give 2.5% profit if stopped

0258
i'm holding the 50.12 qqqq shorts as a mid term trade, for weeks/months maybe



0257
qid sold,,,took profits,,, still have qqqq short n faz 50%

0251
3.93% profitr, taking 25% shares more off here in the faz,,, 3.93% profit,,, faz loss of 2% from this morning made up, still have qqqq short

0244
qqqq could hit 4731, a lower low, today...watching

0243
here is that stall,,,expected...still holding some shorts, having taken some profits

0239
Locking profits on some faz here at 2.66%,,,keeping rest for higher,,,in epxectation of the whipsaw

0238
a stall here and some whipsaw is not necessarily bullish,,,expecting stall and some more whipping around

0236
i'd like to see a lower low on the 60min to create a "real" bull diverg, then can maybe consider long day,,, not today it wont come

0234
FAZ up now.,.. close to covering the FAZ loss from this morning (nasty 2%ish cuz of gap)

0227
still only stage one sell here,,, stage 2 not even started, if it comes, will be more,,, the sell program warning is relatively good

0222
Marketmakers are dropping the ASK here (bearish)

0219
FAZ has a bull crouching tiger 87% with a hold of 1235

0216
here's the sell program, stage 1, from the warning 10 min ago

0215
the 133t chart qqqq has bear HS with three left shoulders lol

0211
15min charts are coiling now, could pop either way, bias down for now

0208
i have an "exit day longs" signal setup warming,,,fwiw,,, qqqq 4822 spx 1169

0200
i have a "sell program warning", no sell prog yet, just warning

149
vix looks bullish, bearish spx

144
 that looked like a breakdown of the UTL in the 133t chart, then a backtest up

138
faz trade still valid, up a little here, waking up

120
cancelled more qqqq shorts,,,doing faz instead,,, 12.42 faz

111pm
4832 qqqq short could work, i'm already in tho, holding only to add at .43

1258
will add more qqqq shorts at 4843 if able, last 4823

1253
15min qqqq chart supports shorts in additino to the 3min HS

1250
3 minute bear HS in qqqq...

1244
qqqq first down trgt 4787

1243
i have a stay short qqqq setup, holding 15minute till end of day, not scalp

1218
i still like qqqq short,,,could exit here breakeven but staying in short

1207
qqqq 60min stoch trying to climb over 20 but usually pulls back on first try

1206
qqqq have a small rsi bear diverg in 3 min, with stoch over 80 in 15min

1136
in qqqq 4822 short looks good here, typ 7.71

1121
out of faz 1256, small profit/breakeven

1102
program trade, back in faz 12.53,

1050
there is much spx resistance in 1177 1178

1038
Today is the only day since March that SPY has OPENED under its lower bollinger band, with the poss exception of a minor open below it on Oct 2

1030
i was stopped out of faz, grr now its back up, but rules said to exit, so program exited.... will probably re-enter faz or fas today and recoup the loss,,,,,

1027
new entry/add to swing short setup could present in 15minutes maybe

1021
stopped out of faz prog trade at 12.70, loss 2.83%

1015
the bullish diverg in qqqq is not strong or fully developed yet, for a swing perspective, 60 min qqqq,,, no reason to cover shorts yet for me

1005
faz stop 1273 now

 0954
faz stop 1263 now

0952
yesterday i mentioned that today we could see a big red candle instead of bounce,,,just like 1/21 and 1/22....could see selling today, certainly started bearish and gap unfilled

0945
FAZ back in the buy area, for a hold 15min-5 hours, not scalp,, stop 1257, will manually trail up

0940
no dips buy for me....vix next trgt 2922

0938
VIX at R here,,,could stall, poss spx bounce now but not going long

0932
in FAZ 13.06 program trade

0931
then 1050, 925, 875 if supports break but that remains to be seen

0930
my spx targets are 1165 and 1150, in round non-exact numbers

0904 am
also added qid late yest at 1652, that is not as high profit cuz added yest near close


9:00 AM
TYP cost 6.94, last 7.87, up 13% profits so far,,, short qqqq from 50.12, last 47.92

8:56 AM
ES now down 9 points. Swing shorts performing well.

7:08 AM
Futures ES are down 3.5 points now, no bounce yet from yesterday's decline,,, this is why I opted to keep some swing shorts overnight. conservative traders would take some profits pre-market.... i'll just hold

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

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* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tuesday's ramblings

0630
ESFutures continue lower toward the lower test targets.

0529
QID could see 16.63 afterhours tonite....

0527
there it goes.... 1170 broken....

0520
1170 looks like it wants to brea lower

0518
1166/67 possible if 1170 not held,,,retest those lows...

0515
watching to see if 1170 ES is held up until 8pm, or if it cracks under it,,, or move over 1174,,,

0434
i still see more downside in spx qqqq....the 15min and 60min charts can be used to time adding shorts (or long for that matter if things change)

0351
last trade,,, qid 1650 into close

0341
Out of QLD 65.41 from 65.70,,, loss

0306
autotrade out of QID 1647 from 1645 (breakeven), in QLD 65.70

0259
the last time that SPX tested its daily 50 MA, it moved down the very next day another 25 points,,, 2 big red candles. first 1148 to 1115 (down 33 points) on first day,,, then 1115 to 1090 next day (down 25pts).... 58 points in 2 days... something to consider,,,, from Jan 22 2010


0247
up in vix not spx

0246
VIX chart suggests a move up here

0220
In QID now, autotrade, at 1647

0219
stopped out qld,,,small profit

0217
QLD autotrader moved stop into profit zone, stop 6566,, QLD profit 0.58 now

0216
this 4845 qqqqq hard to crack ...still think goes higher over it,, charts suggest more "tries"

0210
i still seee more down for swing,,,,just dont know how much/if bounce will be,, this mkt has amazing ability to bounce when its not supposed to LOL


0209
cannot tell if candles r


continuation or bull hammers,,, macd stretched,

15min weakening,,, 15min rsi rising in UTL
 
0207
the 60min spx is getting hard to read now...could go either way,,which usually means chop sideways till mkt makes up its mind,, spx 1174

0204
VIX 3 min.... 5 mini waves down,,,abc next?

0202
i might cover the sds swing soon,,, hourly chart weakening.... not yet but weaker now,,,watchintg,,,, will look to re-enter short since more downside in coming days likely

0149
*4856 correction

0148
4852 next micro trgt qqqq

0145
took 25% of qld off at the 4844 trgt,,,about 0.5% profit on that lil piece...that was not autotrade,,i over-rode it there on 25%,,autotrade still in

0144
qqqq hit 4844 trgt and backed off,,,normal,, still should go up,,but that 4844 needs to break sustain

0141
4858 4871 4896...each must be hurdeled..not sure on the 4896

0135
4844 qqqq target first

0132
QLD trade still valid,,, sds swing still valid lol,,, long n short but diff timeframes

0127
ideally the QLD day will give a small profit, and the swing sds will stay alive without stopout, then sds reverse higher

0106
still in sds swing,,, over 30.15 is preferred,,,,last 3042,, still up 3.2% profit in sds (what remains, took some profits b4 of course)

0105
2 bull hammers in 60min qqqq,,,,
but they need confirming closes ABOVE the high of the hammer, per most candle rules

1248
in qld, 6549 program autotrade

1247
out of qid,,,breakeven

1244
wow...within 2 cents of stopout in qid...still in

1241
1647 qid stop, breakeven

1238
qqqq might give next target down at 4783 ,,, usually if the first target is missed my pennies, then the second one is hit, or in between,,,, same as other day,, of course 4708 might "be it" for now in qqqq, but charts still say "stay short"

1235
qqqq hit 4808 close to my 4802 target....

1214
16.37 stop in QID for now

1210
shouldnt use less than 25,000 on those trades, or commissions could eat up profits,, 25k gives 200-400% / yr,, nothing spectactular, it's the tortoise style

1209
again,,,autotrade will have many small trades like this when in daytrade mode not swing mode,,, but will catch the 1-4% moves

1208
6553 vs 6557 autotrade, 4 cent loss,,,, immediately reversed back into qid,, in qid 16.48

1154
Looking for entry into the SRS for swing...no entry yet,, could be multi month hold

1151
stop qld 6533 for now,, but again its on my autotrade program,,,stop will be autoraised

1146
yesterday i took about a 2% loss in TBT, but glad to be out,,  tbt down another 2.39% today
 
1141
QLD up 6593 from 6557

1118
fwiw,,,my autotrader just did QLD 6550 but it has history of only 57% winning trades, but annual ROI on in is 200-300%.... wins profits greater than losses

1112
ok...stopped on the qqqq shorts 4828 from 5012,,,, still have 25%

1110
covering all but 25% of qqqq puts... .74 cost to 2.06 sell for 278% profit

1109
TYP profits 11% from yest

1107
STOP COVER lock profit 4828 qqqq for now on all but 25% of shares...tite stop

1105
4822 qqqq target hit exactly,,,if it holds here i will cover then reenter

1100
theres the 10 cent drop in qqqq expected

1059
VIX marching toward the 26ish target...last 24.77 and rising....

1056
4850 qqqq last

1055
i think we pull back one more time here, maybe not new low, before bouncing uyp... will prob cover most shorts on that, always saving 25% of shares at breakeven of course

1052
1168 spx would give the 4802 qqqq target prob

1051
spx may want 1169 not 1172

1047
the 3 min is building bull divergences but they must be stronger for me to do any longs or cover shorts completely,,,, still in shorts about 50% shares

1045
MM are trying to build a qqqq base here but selling again 4850 so watching this,, no long signal or no cover shorts yet

1043
IF VIX HOLDS 23 the NEXT REAL RESISTANCE is 27ish...last 24.47

1040
4823 could be a magnet...watching

1038
1174 spx should stall it

1037
my target "real first" is 4823 tho...watching for reaction there

1036
cover half shares from 4876 at 4850 works here

1035
if shorted at 4876....watching for cover area in coming minutes for scalp, longer for day,, last 4848

1028
4876 short here could work but riskier... target LOD

1024
the 60 min qqqq suggests qqqq is only "just beginning" its decline...much more down in coming days,,,with bounces up of course

1021
qqqq throwing a bounce warning now...but not ready for long or exit short,,,, sideways i think for few min

1017
VIX has marginally broke over R,,,prior hi from 5 days ago,,, needs to hold over it

1012
DOW under 11000 psych # now,,, will that convert to resistance? (Of course, other #s are "tech resist" not 11000)

1005
there's the 10 cent drop in qqqq in last minute,, epxecting lower or sideways still

1004
10 min qqqq is getting lil stronger,,,but usually it will turn back down first with this pattern,,,initial strength only,, 4888 last

1000
expecting spx to turn back down here before any bounce up,,, under curr 1184

0956
i mentioned 3 days ago this is "distribution" toppping process behaviour,,, still thinking 1165 then 1150 spx but not right away of course

0947
taking profits on half of qqqq puts at 1.61 here from 0.74 cost,,, 213% profit

0942
qqqq target 4873, hit 4872 or one cent less, then bounced, but looking for lower,,,, still short

0941
4807 qqqq target in coming days

0939
qqqq target 4873 hit,,,,, why i took some off there, lock profit

0938
typ 7% profit, locking 25% of shares here

0937
in Q puts from .74,,,, typ from 6.94,, typ last 7.45 for

0934
4873 qqqq target... 10 cents under the 4883

0932
qqqq down hard, qqqq need hold more impt support 4883,, last 4906

0907
still short sds, spxu, qqqq from 5012 last 4936

0904
looking for retest of Friday lows,,, i still think we break those and head lower in coming days,

8:59
ES is down 12 points right now,,,, the new short setup entries from yesterday were valid and working

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".