thurs ramblings (and Wedn eve ES futures)

0404
as i see it, the only way for much of a bounce is if they push the futures tonite, if we open flat, charts suggest more downside.... though I don't yet have a "big selloff" setup, just "more downside"

0359
UNREALIZED PROFITS, OPEN POSITIONS
VXX  3.2%
DUF  1.3%
EWC (-0.25%)
TWM (-1.3%)

I expecte EWC and TWM to move into profit zone.

0358
selling piece of vxx 2477 from 2406 cost this morn

0354
the spx has a bear harami pattern that needs confirmation with a close under 1156 in the coming days

0350
charts suggest that VIX may have put in its short term bottom at 24.30, but daily VIX still not strong enough to confirm that

0341
selling 25% of dug shares for 1.52% profit from this morn

0338
taking some vxx off here for 3.2% profit,,,from this morn

0337
holding most of this vxx, well half of it,,, vxx is volatile and give huge moves

0335
not sure we bounce much tomorrow,,,, i will prob hold swing shorts longer, take profits on pieces of them,,,, this is just the beginning of selling on my charts

0325
VXX nice,,, hit 2488 over the 2460 high,,, 2518 is target next

0311
vxx may go over the HOD 2462, last 2429

0248
vxx twm moving up

0245
EWC continues to break down,, thus far today's high was not tested, as expected

0229
vxx is marginally breaking above the coil, suggesting up, but this break doesnt count yet,,,,bias still up in vxx

0227
tension building in this VXX coil... reaction could be big in direction of break that sustains after any false moves

0218
10 min 15min bull inv HS in TWM (short russel)

0157
VXX sym triangle in 10 min chart

0149
if ES does not break under 1163 then a coil will form on the 60min,,, now we have 3 lower highs and 2 lowr lows

0121
wild whipsaw,,,vxx now down to 2485 from 24.15

0109
no confirmation in the daily charts yet, but EWC looks like it prob finished its move up with today's high of 28.29, for the coming days

0104
theres the expected  break,,,,2427 stall in vxx would be normal, last 2414

1258
vxx looks like break higher in coming minutes,,,

1249
added modest # shares EWC short ... 2711, for swing

1244
VIX has a bull harami in 60 min chart but needs a close over 25.17 to confirm (bearish spx if it does)

1242
BELOW the mkt, i'll add a little more short on EWC,,, stop mkt short at 2807

1227
the ES 1166 R still holding,,, a break over it good for a pop but still holding down.. i still see it holding for now

1219
i might add more TWM if it gets there, unsure now

1218
if TWM can get over 1804 then it should pop up,,,, last 1791

1213
if spx doesnt hold1166 then the 15min UTL support will be broken, holding so far, expecting break lower later ,,last 1167

1204
twm might want 1780 or 1774ish but safe over that,,last 1792

1202
EWC broke the coil lower as expected

1201
VXX now has a 15min bull rsi failure swing up

1159
TWM 133t chart showing a bull W

1158
DUG breakout setting up in 15min


1157
the VXX 3minute is suggesting a breakout higher in coming minutes if 2390 holds, last 2400

1162 next and bulls must hold it, i expect it to break lower after a bounce there

1153
theres the 1166 es breake as expected

1151
VXX near breakeven now but still holding... looks like upside in coming minutes hours

1148
EWC 3 min starting to coil, inside the 3min uptrend, but bias still down for me

1135
thus far, bulls have tested R three times last 3 days, and have not broken over it (or marginal break only)... so i remain bearish for now and swing short

1118
in DUG 59.23 stop 58.47 for now

1100
ES volume increasing on the selling here on last 3min bar

1032
15min ES right now has 3 lower highs, 2 lower lows

1011
continuing to build vxx at 23.97 as able

1001
vxx filled 2401

959
buying more vxx 2401 limmit if filled, last 24.10

949
correction: EWC volume is not as high as mentioned earlier,,,bad data

945
EWC volume right now is already about 1/3 of yesterdays total volume

942
i remain swing short

941
for holds over 30 minutes, i have a short setup with stop above yest high

935
vxx up nicely here, 2450 last from 2400 yest

930
poss bear eve star setup today for qqqq, watching 3 day pattern with confirm on 4th... today is day 3,,, qqq gap down presents eve star opp

922
yesterday mkt tested resist in spx and it held, now likely to test support

917
new swing shorts from yesterday are safe thus far,,, could exit here but holding longer,,,letting the market and price tell us what to do

8:48 PM
simple things to consider for now... are there bearish divergences? is the spx above or below its 20 and 50 moving averages in daily? Can it close above the 20 and 50 for 2-3 days in a row? Are the 10 20 and 50 daily MA pointed up or down?

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".