Thurs thoughts

[16:23:08] previous moves in TLT with volume at this level have tended to have TLT at least test its 15 period daily moving avg, now near 122.95
[16:20:35] TLT volume today was its highest since 8/11/11

[16:18:12] SPX is on a 4 to 16 hour sideways bulllish bias now imo, using 60min timing charts

[16:14:30] the daily ES printed a doji candle, in japanese psychology interpreted as indecision
[16:14:54] the TLT candle however is bearish tlt
353
[15:53:05] still long in all of these (some are bearish trades tho): ACIW AGQ SLV BAL DGP MIND SSYS TMV TNA UTIW VTNC for multiday to multiweek depending on stock,,,all still buyable here at these prices imo


340
SSYS long has nice bull diverg on 60min charts, macd hist , for swings long,trgt 12% higher


339
4860 still same trgt 1 for tna

[15:33:36] ES just hit its 1316 trgt posted at 3:02 pm, still could go higher today

[15:02:21] ES 1316 trgt today, could bounce up there,, could go over 1316 today also


258
[14:58:15] significant selloff in TLT in its impt 2pm--3pm hour (vs spx 3-4pm)
[14:58:41] 128.11ish to 127.11ish drop in minutes, TLT,, HUGE red candles on the 3min and 60min charts


155
OIL and GOLD often move together but the relationship is not always present. In Aug - Sept 2011, GLD went higher as USO went lower,,, we see the same thing with USD vs GLD, and TLT vs SPX,,US Dollar vs SPX,,etc

[13:18:12] imo, i still believe lower TLT will cause higher GOLD prices, as they use gold for "safety" due to the lack of yield in treasuries at these levels
[13:18:49] SP500 may also see higher prices from lower TLT, but imo smart money is going into other sectors like gold, with less money into equities stocks

112
Look at TLT daily candle, unless it rallies back to its highs by 4pm, TLT will have a bear gravestone doji right now. Yesterdays candle and volume suggested toppiness, and this is a further warning of topping in TLT with an expected reversal lower in coming days and weeks.

Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wedn thoughts

345
possible blow off top on TLT today, the volume suggests at least 2% lower test if not top, TLT may be headed back to 113

in march i was long TLT TMV at 111, left train early at 122 for 10%ish  and30%ish move,,posted here, mid term long term see TLT to 100,,, new TLT  shorts, TMV currently are red but imo still will go lower, tlt


317
[15:17:45] theres a lot of sector roatation going on, within stocks sectors and also extended to commodities sectors

309
[15:09:46] SLV looks higher in comoing minutes

237
missed 4840 tna trgt 1 by a few cents, raising to 4859 for now instead, large port only for 25--50% of shares, small port holding for higher trgts, usually when it misses by a few pennies, it will overshoot higher, so raised trgt for now, will observe reactions

135
4840 TNA trgt 1 on large port, higher trgt on  small port for now, from 4780, partial shares only on TNA large port trgt 1,
132
[13:32:19] 74% es long signal rang, 1313

126
TNA 4780 here, scalp or swing both, or ES 1312


121
[13:20:50] another heavy volume silver buying, as it makes marginal new daily highs off the morning recovery lower (higher low)

1107
SLV just filled the gap higher, still holding slv longs

1103
still have 2800 and 2950ish trgts, SLV

1103
[11:02:33] decent buying in SLV suddenly intraday here, watching to see if it sustains or not,, gold also
[11:02:52] now testing daily high, daily resist,

Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tues thoughts

356
UTIW appears to be closing right at resist, and those closes often mean higher in coming hours days

356
under 1640, i will hold UTIW and not exit on small port today, waiting for higher trgts

354
small port: i may NOT take profit on the UTIW, may keep it longer, as it still has higher to go,

344
market makers still buying, but this is only gentle buying on their part, but helping the scalps

341
i'm gonig to take some profit in UTIW today b4 close, unless it plunges from here, rite now trying to make a new daily high so waiting, have other long positions that i will hold and not close today outside of UTIW, plan to rebuy UTIW later if able

336
ES hit trgt 1, at 1329 last
still see higher ES poss today

334
[15:34:28] Market Makers gently buying rite now, at es 1327
[15:34:40] watching to see if more buying b4 the close or not

316
still see 1329 or higher today, but taking some off imo makes sense at this hour

315
taking 25-50% of shares off from es 1323 long scalp makes sense, a bit under trgt1, here at 1328, makes sense

312
UTIW daily chart last 30 days similar to spx, but the UTIW daily chart last 4 months stronger than spx, still see it outperforming spx for swings long, UTIW near todays high now, testing, and may make a higher high by 4pm

301
ES1329,,,1328.75 trgt one for half of 1323 scalp signal, ES,,,last 1327

216
74% es here long signal, 1326,rang

144
MIND up 5% today, tho still red 10% on swing, but these stocks are volatile and move around a lot. still see another 20 -30% higher MIND possible

144
slv  gld  agq long look good too imo

143
70% es long scalp signal just range, needs 74-85% to really move price, last es 1323, agressive long entries could work


1203
long silver via AGQ. will take profit today if it moves, and hold the gold longer with looser stop on DGP swing.

Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday thoughts

357
i will exit the SLV i bought today b4 close, for v small profit 1/2%ish, still see higher slv but i have gold dgp already as a swing, else would keep the slv

319
took off half large port SLV at its first trgt here, still see higher, but not liking that MM not chasing, so taking profit b4 it disappears, small port i'm waiting for now,holding

303
2780 and 2793 daily slv trgts into the close today, maybe higher but a sluggish day thus far

300
SLV charts still same, mkt maker reports no change either

255
we wont necessarily get one today, but explosive moves often come after such narrow range, could see silver and gold make a larger move in coming hours days

254
SLV is taking its time, but at least its hanging out at the daily highs on this narrow range day

148
slv hit 2769, one cent below before revised 2770 trgt from 930am, but giving it some time here to try for the revise 2779,large port, small port still will wait too

147
MM are NOT chasing SLV or gold now tho, so a pullback if it hits slv 2770--2785 is possible,,unless they change tactics, current reports suggest imo that they will sell near the trgt areas, but only to buy lower, they may try to push SLV all the way back to 27.20


145
SLV: hidden trgt of 27.85 imo more impt than more clearly visible 28.02 and 28.09 prior highs, based on Market Maker reports,, MM reports suggest that if 27.85 is hit, then over 28.10 to new highs possible

140
SSYS targets swing, in time: 52.00, 55.00, 61.00, last SSYS 49.02

140
long SSYS, small positino, starter position only, warning: this is a VOLATILE stock


128
large port revised trgt up a bit from 2770 to 2779 to sell a piece if it gets there, small port i'll hold longer

126
big move in slv 3min chart, watching if it can sustain or not, should hit its first trgt, unsure of higher trgts, watching reactions


124
is silver waking up? watching to see if it can hit targets or not


113
60min chart timing analysis imo suggests sideways to up bias next 1-4 trading hours; doesnt mean it cannot go lower first but think it will bounce.

112
moderate bullish diverg are forming on the 3min ES and spy charts, not seen clearly on the rsi or macd, but stoch forming a higher low vs equiv price low, and 15min suggests the bull diverg may need more time to form, poss lower first, there is a bear desc triangle on 3min but that triangle doesnt correlate with the 15 and 60min charts imo, so weakens the triangle validity. still see a bounce poss, but its early entry longside still.

1254
[12:54:21] 72%
[12:54:26] ES may move now, scalps, higher

1246
[12:46:06] an alternative to using options, is to buy small positions of small cap stocks $5-$20 per share, at least the stock never expires, and buying small positions limits risk. even a small position could be profitable if it moves 10-40%, which those stocks can do. So for example instead of buying $1,000 in options, buy $3,000 of small cap. Not a set formula, example only, actual dollars invested depends on volatility of the small cap stock as measured by its stock beta (diff than options beta), bollinger band width on daily charts, and other volatility measures, as compared to SPY

1228
yest similar tna setup, tna moved lower b4 going up $1 ish from entry

1228
or 4850 tna

1228
half size early entry es long coulr work here 1318, if willing to endure poss lower b4 higher,

1225
heres the 3min pullback mentioned earlier on es, pattern still forming

1145
SLV long scalp 71% rang, trgt 1 = 2770, last 2750

1143
next move lower, then stall, then some green candles, on 3min charts would present a long scalp opp, if the pattern forms

1143
ES buy scalp signal is at 67%, so may chop a bit here lower, but expecting it to pop over 70--74% later

1036
[10:36:07] tbt here 1655 long could work, i'm not entering since already have tmv related
[10:36:32] good imo for either scalp or swing


1015
went long SLV, may add more later

1013
looking to buy SLV long, will take profits today if it moves, no entry yet, may enter in next 1--120 minutes
Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thursday thoughts

438
took off tna 4892--4894 from 4750 post earlier today, holding the other stuff

409
may sell some of the TBT afterhours if it keeps creeping up,,,still have 1707 trgt 1, higher later

408
if es 1329--1331 breaks higher overnight, could surge higher, tho respecting resist there until  broken

[16:07:08] not the greatest scalp, but 1315 scalps could take off here , or tighten stop, keep half hold half, for 7 points profit

405
for spx, gap analysis inconclusive using method i use, but favors gap up m more than gap down

146
TBT may still make a 1-3% move today, watching reactions at tbt resist test
impt 2-3pm hour for TLT TBT

145
TLT almost ready to ring 74% short (long tbt) signal intraday scalp sig


125
72% long scalp signal just rang on ES at 1315 and tna 4750

113
only half the shares this time on tbt, may add more later, but enough shares to scalp and take profit today if it hits targets, the targts remain the same as b4

112
back in TBT again, near same price as exit, has held thus far and did not decline to lower trgt, so bought back

1227
for spx, i'll wait at least 3 candles on 15min chart before any long there, individ stock charts diff,,may re-enter TBT later, last es 1313, last tbt 1666

1150
long ACIW, swing, 40.00--40.05

[11:38:38] ES pb warning ringing here too
[11:38:46] not shorting it tho

1135
[11:33:42] i exited TBT 100% in small port, to take an early profit under target
[11:33:50] warning signs that tbt may want to go to 1650ish
[11:34:08] so will try to re-enter later, still exposed to TLT short via the TMV swing tho
[11:34:43] large port, holding 25% of tbt still, usually always hold a piece in large port with stop closer to breakeven to give breathe room

1125
but not adding to them either, not averaging down

1124
mid term swings lagging and testing patience, but imo still no reason to sell them here, tho some are red,,,diff hold times, minute to weeks

1120
17.07 next TBT trgt, about 3.07% profit if hit, will take 100% of small port shares of there if able, from entry this morning,,may need to settle for lower intraday trgt of 16.75 or 16.88 or 16.96, holding for now

1104
also gold gld dgp

1104
TBT still on "stay long tbt" for next 1-4 hours imo

1035
large port TBT scalp, taking some shares off here, 0.6% gain from entry this morn,,,small port holding 100%


1033
UTIW needs to break over 1611 and 1626 to really get upside traction, last 1596, may test the 1625 today

1030
GLD DGP metal should still go higher imo

1013
, may see one of those today UTIW

1012
17.40 UTIW is first swing trgt higher on UTIW (11% gain if hit), with higher trgt later, only at 2% gain atm, holding for now, 16.25 and 16.60 interim targets

957
daily chart of DIS is much diff than SPY or DJIA dow jones chart, DIS is a dow component

955
DIS walt disney long llooks good for swing near here 44.25, but waiting awhile to buy it,,,wrote it on the whiteboard as a focus stock to watch, if i did not have other positions already i'd buy here, but waiting for now due to other positions, if i miss the DIS opp by waiting, will look elsewhere

948
[09:48:13] imo, for today, shorting TLT (or long tbt tmv) is better than long SPY IWM,,,look at charts and action so far
[09:48:21] for intraday trades

940
last TBT 16.55

939
long tbt, will take profit today if it moves , else hold swing, tbt is 2x short of TLT , could also use the 3x TMV, chose more shares in tbt since it has higher volume and better fills



Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wedn thoughts

343
if u like spx swing long, one could consider UTIW long, its chart the last month looks similar to SPX,,but UTIW 3-4 month chart is stronger than spy spx

337
ES now at 1314, from 1298 post earlier es 70% long signal, makes sense for scalpers to take 50-100% of shares off for 16 points profit


311
not saying it gets there, but a TLT below yesterdays low could likely trigger intense buying in spx, gold, silver, gdx,,,,this relationship does not always exist but imo, in this case, it applies,,,,it tends to apply more when TLT is at resist or support extremes

imo, TLT will breakdown and trigger such, tho it may take days weeks to fully materialize, applicable for swings only

255
nugt gdx may pb to 4300, even there still bullish, may present opp to buy again, else move on to next opp,, still have other open positions besides gdx nugt

254
[14:53:50] still see higher, gdx is still on a "hold 4 more hours or longer", but it is at psoted trgt from yest and stalling here,,,will prob go higher but need to limit risk on small port
[14:54:15] larger port: holding the last 25%, and will try to buy back again lower, still exposed to gold metal via dgp which is laggin now but may catch up


248
4680 is primary swing trgt 2, with pauses along the way, 4541 may cap todays advance if it can get there

246
gdx hit 4421, one cent over 4420 trgt, still see higher to next trgt on GDX  NUGT

405
WOW look at TLT last 1 hour,,nice move lower tlt, higher tmv

400
observation: moves down are often bigger and faster than moves up, swings,,,, 8 days down move could have a very long dribble higher on spx
358
this TLT selloff, after 3pm, not good for TLT, bearish TLT move, bullish spx this time imo
TMV 3x and TBT 2x are etfs for bearish TLT plays

356
1340, 1363 es trgts swing


353
[15:52:16] TLT still needs under 122 imo, for any real move up in spx gold
[15:52:44] i believe TLT under 122 willl have retail buying spx, and smart money buying gold and others


347
VTNC just jumped, still down for day, but shows the crazy volatility of those stocks,,6.50ish to 6.86ish


242
large port would take another 25% of gdx nugt off here, up 2.2% ,,,6.6%ish from yest entry, small port still holding on

239
GDX is now close to its previously posted take profit trgt, for small port, BUT i've removed the order to sell there and will instead wait and observe reactions,,,GDX  NUGT may overshoot that second target

158
GDX 60min 3rd test of its highs,,has pb a bit, thats normal, i'm holding longer,,often it will breakout on the third test of the high

139
gdx at 1%ish profit trgt from yest entry,,,nugt 3%ish,,,but holding longer in small port


138
GDX is "close enough" to the 43.69 prior posted trgt, i'm considering that trgt hit (or revised it lower, whichever makes more sense),,,still holding this for the next higher trgt if able in small port,,,larger port taking some off here near the trgt 1

116
4369 and 4420 GDX targets, higher later, order to sell some GDX at 4420 trgt for now and hold rest, to try to buy again lower if 4420 hit,,,may sell 25-50% before 4420 at 4369ish if it cant get there todaty

115
imo, MM have been accum GDX since may 10,

114
pb to 4250 gdx would be normal imo,,,wathcing if it pb an reaction there if it does,,,hold or break

113
MM are not buying more GDX, yet at least, that may change later

112
Market Maker reports show that MM tested retail at that level, MM sold at that level, and then backed off,,, they are still selling into this but MM reports suggest they are still net long GDX sector

111
also intraday, gdx did not pause at the 4270 test and pb to 4240ish which wouldve been normal, has pushed right thru it to 4300 last

109
notice that GDX is much closer to its May 10 daily high than spx spy is,,,also GDX already tested this high just yesterday as well,,,bullish for gdx vs spx,,gdx and nugt should outperperform spx imo (for SWINGS)


1246
ES 71% buy just rang,

Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer"
if u like spx swing long, one could consider UTIW long, its chart the last month looks similar to SPX,,but UTIW 3-4 month chart is stronger than spy spx

.

Tues thoughts

335
[15:35:01] gdx may take 2-3 days to really move to its higher targets tho, per current timing analysis
[15:35:15] but i am holding my gdx thru it, in case the timing is wrong

158
added more gdx long

1224
large port taking some gdx nugt off here minutes later, 0.5% / 1.5% profit
small port i'm holding it

1208
long GDX, will take profit today if it moves, else hold swing,,one could use NUGT for added leverage and 3x volatil, i'm using gdx for better fills higher vol

1041
1.3% slv profit,,2.6%ish AQG quick scalp

1039
[10:38:36] small port, took SLV AGQ profits and will perhaps reenter later, from entry this morn
[10:38:44] still exposed to gold via dgp swing

1022
taking 25-50% of SLV AGQ off for large port, holding small port slv long,up  0.8%,,1.6%ish from entry this morn

958
back in SLV long, may add more later, same idea as yesterdays small quick scalps

917
yesterdays gap down analysis on TLT was accurate, TLT down nicely about 1% now, or TMV about 3% higher

Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday thoughts

402
gap analysis: poss gap down in treasuries tomorrow, TLT

358
added TMV, swing

355
swing TLT shorts here at the close,or now, could work imo,,,or alt long TBT or TMV,,,,if using TLT its vol is also high enough to do afterhours, TMV is not, TBT often decent AH


354
UTIW and SPX: their charts look similar for the last month, but a 3 month chart shows UTIW stronger than SPX SPY, hence the entry long there earlier today, up 2% but still see 9-12% higher on it for swing trgt. Also UTIW has a "reason" to hit its target, namely the mar 22 and mar 23 candles, and prior earnings

333
a TLT close under 124.15 may be "good enough", tho the under 123.75 still preferred

312
Watching to see if TLT closes under 123.75,,,have been watching for TLT to weaken in the 3--4pm timeframe last few days,,,thus far it has not weakened, a weak 3-4pm close on TLT often suggests a top in TLT if it is near resist (which it is the last few days),,,and often results in lower TLT and higher SPX in following days. In this case I also believe that Gold will go higher along with spx on a weak TLT close.

301
I still see higher slv and gold, but took quick profit on silver, am still exposed to gold via DGP swing


301
Took profits on silver SLV

255
Market maker reports suggest imo thyat they are still buying slv, for higher slv today and coming days

124
signal intraday 74% silver long just rang, last slv 2748

1225
added to cotton long via BAL, 47.47

1216
Previously I was long TLT, TMF from TLT 112ish on march 14 posted entry, rode for 21% higher on TMF, then reversed short via TMV initial entry swing

1216
TLT is also setting up an intraday short, but i'm not shorting it just yet. Can do TLT short, TBT long, or TMV long. Already have TMV long, may use TBT for some shorter term trades, no entry yet.

1204
SLV moving nice now. 2786 trgt, lim order up there to sell if able/.

1203
74% long buy signal, intraday on slv, 2744

1156
imo, market maker reports suggest they are buying silver, see higher slv intradayt

1155
UTIW trgt 1750--1800

1154
long UTIW, swing, 15.62

1136
added more SLV, same area, 2742

1111
27.41 long SLV. will take profits today if it moves , else swing hold
Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday thoughts

359
out of SLV near breakeven, holding the gold

312
TLT  "should not" go there, TLT should close near this area

311
a TLT close below 123.50, i might add more longs on spy tna or other mkt indice, long swing

309
71% long SLV scalp signal just range, needs 78--85% to move

306
watching TLT again from 3pm--4pm to see if any significant move takes place, or if it hangs around at this price level

206
important price level as well as 2pm time for TLT: testing resist and trying to break it higher, but watching reaction,,,still see lowr TLT later

130
added more SLV small port,

119
[13:18:54]   but i dont have too many shares in slv, i may add more later, if it does not move today i'll hold the lil piece swing,,,
[13:19:38] if next SLV pb on 3min chart is above support i will add more, if below support wont add, and will look to exit later

113
looks like SLV will break to new intraday highs

110
long SLV

1250
silver SLV or AGQ may present some scalp opps long, or poss swings,,,btw silver is more volatile than gold, watching for poss SLV entries to supplement gold

1244
[12:43:19] out of GNC
[12:43:47] only a half percent profit on it, but it plunged 2%ish after i bought, so exited to reduce risk
[12:44:18] have exposure to mkt in other positinos, no need to hold the GNC after that craziness, tho i still see it higher

1236
[12:36:23] maybe back to 1800 on gold later, will see
[12:36:40] as bond holders exit bonds to buy gold, imo


1101
[11:00:35] exited GDX NUGT, will look to buy later, NUGT moved 29%ish higher in 2 days
[11:00:57] still see higher NUGT, will look to re-enter later, still have a related prescence via DGP GLD

1052
long GNC ,, enough shares in GNC to take scalp profits if it moves, and hold rest for swing longer

937
Gold futures are higher, playing out the pattern that was the inverse of the prior "short oil" pattern,,,both were similar patterns and stats but gold was just flopped inversely

931
GLD gapped up 1%ish, GDX gap up 2.5%ish, NUGT gap up 8%ish DGP gap up 2.4%ish

928
ES went lower overnite to 1294, then to 1309. It did not quite make the 1311 test that was posted yesterday as a target.


Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thurs thoughts

353
right now, TLT is near its 3pm price, so no difference atm

350
TLT close today more impt than SPY SPX close, imo,, TLT should stay over its support. TLT often closes at 4pm near its 3pm price, a significant distance away from its 3pm price at 4pm often suggests continuation in the same direction of the differential, and SPX often does the inverse

347
imo if short makes sense to take profit,,,es chart suggests 1311 test

344
ES "should" be at 1311 not here at 1305, may bounce b4 415pm,,

340
if GDX  doesnt make much of a move b4 close today, may change mind and keep the remaining 20% of GDX  NUGT, already exited other piece earlier today

338/
TLT should stay over 123.60ish, if it breaks that, may go long TNA  EEM  SPY  or similar

327
NUGT or GDX long on a pb could work, tomorrow or later

326
i am going to exit GDX  NUGT today and keep GLD DGP,,, still see higher NUGT GDX but just dont know if it wants another pb and how much of a pb,,,the GDX NUGT chart does suggest more UP before a pb,,,but i'm electing to take the conservative approach since the port has other stocks in it, some related

314
interesting that the last 3 candles on 15min chart have bull tails on them, see if bulls want to rally or not, they need over 1315 for any traction intraday

312
3min ES bull hammer trying to form, 5min bull harami, intraday only candles

306
Gold futures are tight range,,,it may make a move in the next hour

305
NUGT   GDX look like they have more upside for swings, tho NUGT up 16%ish today, it has another 21% higher poss,,,sounds like a lot but that stuff moves,

303
TLT will likely close over 123.60 today, but in coming days expecting lower,,if it does close under .60ish that would be more bearish for TLT

300
123.99 last TLT

259
TLT back at resist,,,still see lower TLT for swing, or higher TMV, this is a nice spot to add TMV long or TLT short, or could be a v good first entry

229
gold 60min looks like it has more upside

219
charts suggests TLT may pullback about 4% in coming days

1217
also i'm wanting to reduce risk here, since on vacation, and not monitoring this all day long,,,so i'm not getting perfect exits

1215
out of multimonth AAPL swing short for 1%ish tolerable loss, will look to re-enter it later, not worth the risk of holding here for only 1%, entered shorts 596 and 455 approx,, i was too early on AAPL short, so taking this move down as a gift and opp to exit and re-eval, i think AAPL goes lower than 500 but will wait for bounce before re-entering, may trade AAPL long first for quick swing, then short later for multimonth short hold

1205
also exited DBA agric...took a small loss on that one,,,will prob go higher but want to reduce risk
I am being patient with the MIND and VTNC swings, those can move ultrafast higher too, so holding them still

1200
NUGT is up a whopping 18% today, Exited 80% of NUGT swing, keeping a little for higher

946
BBL: on vacation

945
if multiweek multimonth short AAPL, might make sense to exit half or all of it here, and look to re-enter later, i've tightened stops and will take a loss on this today if stopped out (LIFO loss on first gain, gain on second quarter, for a net small loss),, i still see lower AAPL later but may be able to exit and re-short at higher levels

BBL: on vacation
Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday thoughts

316
Some positinos in the port are underwater, but these stocks are very volatile and can rise as fast as they have declined. From a tech perspective, I see no reason to exit them now.,

This has happened before, many times. For example, VHC was underwater 7% and then shot up to a 30% profit.


316
for swings, Market Maker reports to me suggest that they are buying more than they are selling, and that a rise higher in SPX TNA etc is expected in the coming day(s)

1151
long NUGT,more shares

1135
still see higher WFC but i have other long positinos, so took the quick profit, will look to buy back later

1135
took profits on WFC, will look to reenter again loater

1059
long more WFC


1054
still see higher STX but i have other long positinos, so took the quick profit on STX, will look to buy back later

1054
took profit on stx, will look to reenter later

1029
long stx 30.91
1004
Selling the AAPL on Friday, and replacing with STX, has worked well thus far. STX up 0.22% today, vs AAPL down 0.46%

Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday thoughts

400
gap UP on monday, or higher next week, spx and russell, would not surprise me

359
small port, out of ABT

322
WFC trying to revist the .40 trgt, then higher if it gets there


320
1360es vs 1363 actia;;y trgt


318
68% ES scalp long signal

302.
in TNA

244
watching WFC 3340, then run higher, swing

242
looking for ABT to get to 6230, then take out its daily highs

1224
small port: closed aapl breakeven, and bought STX with the aapl money
[12:19:42] a long scalp is setting up on ES imo,,,tho not quite ready yet
[12:19:48] not sure how much meat is on it
[12:20:55] stx or abt may be better than spy es


1159
or could set stop .37 tite on 25% of shares, i'm using the tite stop in case this punches thru higher insteaad

1157
large port ABT is at scalp trgt 1 now, small port holding longer for now and may exit soon,unsure
large port would only exit 25--50% of shares

1139
[11:39:04] right now, i believe if 1370 is tested then a pb will come,,,but if it does get to 1370 es, charts suggest it will break it higher over 1370 later, one more time,,,and short sellers may be waiting above on that break
[11:39:18] curr charts,,,could change of course

1137
at 1370 es, may exit half of some long positions on individ stocks,,,the charts on long positinos are diff than es spy spx charts tho

1112
c citibank down 2.5%, wfc up 0.2%, jpm down 7.5%, xlf  down 0.5%, gs 2.74%,,,those r the main ones i watch in financials,,,WFC doing the best atm

1106
1354--1356 ES support, over that bullish imo,,,interesting that 1356 carried over from yest, it was yest # too,, the first test of 1354--1356 "should" hold and bounce, reaction there impt

1100
LOL these micro caps are something else: VTNC just did an intraday 2.5%ish gap up

1014
abt 6347 trgt

959
3420 WFC trgt, tho may just exit the whole thing today depending on what it does

959
WFC now testing yest high, and also 5 day high, and looks breakable higher today

949
JPM is down whopping 9% this morn, WFC has shrugged it off and is up 0.7%, up over 2.5% from wfc yest AH pullback

941
one could exit half of WFC here for quick 2% if u took WFC afterhours yest

936
posted WFC afterhours yest but its only a little higher now , still buyable, small position


935
also long WFC ,,,think the pb in wfc from jpm is overdone

934
back in ABT long, enough shares to both swing and scalp


Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thurs thoughts

737
bought some WFC afterhours, at 2% lower from close. i believe that Wells Fargo will recover and is being hit by JPM. WFC is a different type of bank.

400
 ABT daily looks good long, maybe buy that agin tomorrow,, ABT chart looks diff than SPY SPX

358
ES and SPY charts look diff on daily. ES daily: a doji after a downtrend, with a higher hi and higher low than yest,,if one uses a 2 day ES chart, a key reversal bullish day instead


352
small port: i'm holding all the aapl longs, for better or worse,,,its at breakeven rite now

350
april 24 was earnings report, vtnc,,,stocks often retest the earnigns levels,,

343
VTNC long, partly based on april 24 and   april 25 candles daily

342
yesterday AAPL had a green candle, and today low vol on aapl, reasons to hold long, tho still unsure if keeping half of it or not,,,

336
VTNC, small stock, i see higher in 1-5 days


330
if "nothing much" happens by 4pm today, imo "lack of selling interest" is more impt than "lack of buying interest",,,,can drift higher on that model, 

323
aggressive trade go long swing on oil, i'll wait another day

320
 "someone" likes that GLD 154.80 several times a big bounce from it today

312
for swings it appears there is some accumulation in aapl and that would suggest higher for swings

311
not sure yet, might end up keeping all of AAPL longs instead of selling half (short term trade long, not multiweek short)

240
[14:39:57] AAPL is hanging around that 572.30 level still,,,they will try for 572 next if they can

230
[14:29:44] there is a slight bearish bias to the AAPL marketmakers, but i cannot tell if they are trying to accum or short,,,insufficient data

226
[14:27:39] Market makers have now stepped aside, they r testing retail again, imo from MM reports
[14:27:49] they will not stay on the sidelines very long at this time of day

225
[14:25:09] those 15min vol bars on ES,,,i would not want to be short daytrade here personally

220
[14:20:32] Market makers: they r gently buying atm,,,could change in a flash


216
if it hits 1360.50 that should trigger new daily highs on ES


216
failure to test ES 1353 before 3:05 PM, may be bullish into todays close, watching the 1353 supp and 1363 resist areas

[14:13:24] imo it makes sense to lighten up on swing longs today and take some partial profits, even if only small, for swings
[14:13:33] but likely i'll keep half swing longs
atm, planning on poss exiting half of AAPL, half of MIND, and keeping full positinos in others

210
often, those tails, mean the stock is being accumulated, when they are near a bottom like gold is now, and also when they are within the third candle of a bull morn star (which is today)

210
look at all those candle tails on 15min GLD

207
[14:07:32] ES just went 74% from 72% long scalp
[14:07:51] was at 74, went to 72, now back 74

often not always it signals the scalp bottom when that happens

151
in the small port, i might take off half of the MIND stock today, and keep half

149
15min ES has a bull coil pattern

[13:44:34] long VTNC, small port and large port both
[13:45:16] 16% profit trgt 1 for VTNC, 30%ish later

133
still watching for AAPL > 576 trigger QQQ long

133
[13:33:05] for remaing half of ES based scalpss, i'm removing order to sell at 1363 trgt on the last half
[13:33:26] it may break 1363, this time of day, higher, so trying forthat for now,,,already exited other half

121
the next pullback in OIL may present a long opp,,,waiting to go long, no entry, after having shorted oil earlier

101
IF aapl over 576, i think the QQQ will join in for higher

[13:00:10] AAPL is at 76% buy scalp long now
[13:00:32] suggests test of aapl high of day, and poss new higher hi later


[12:58:35] large port, taking 25% of shares of early here at 1361 stall
[12:58:45] keeping 75%

[12:56:30] large ports would take 6 points scalp profits from 1356 if es hits 1362, and keep half of the position,,,small ports could take profits on half or all and try to buy back lower, or small ports could wait for higher

1235
[12:34:54] 74% now from 72%, es
[12:35:05] "should" see the 1363 trgt

1214
Market Maker Reports:  i have software that attempts to evaluate market maker activityy,,,if they are buying or selling, and if the buying is to accum long or to cover shorts, and if the selling is to intiate new shorts or take profits on longs,,,or if the selling is only to "keep the price down" so they can buy more and accum

1149
[11:49:32] mentioned yest that GLD might gap higher for that 3 day candle formation: today it did gap higher, watching to see what it does, swing
[11:49:42] gld morn star

1147
following the roadmap still:  ES did hit the 1359 trgt and pulled back,,,a move up still suggests same next 2 trgts if it gets over 1359:  1363, 1369

1142
ABT went lower than expected yesterday, and was red, so took opp to exit with a profit

1142
actually, in small port, i took profit on ABT, may buy again later

1141
ABT has broken over yest hi, on way to 6270 next trgt, still holding it for now

1132
Market Maker reports: they are still accumulating long positinos, so upside may be limited awhile longer until they are done buying,,AFTER they finish buying then they will lift the sell pressure and let it higher, if this pattern and MM activity continues on the curr plan: 

1123
if ES hits 1357, it would suggest 1359, 1363, 1369 trgts higher
ES will prob go to 72% if it hits 1356.50

1119
70% es long signal still in play from 1356, its almost ready to go to 72%

1038
this ABT has a mind of its own lately, it picks a direction and sticks with it, regardless of ES, intraday

1032
ES long here 1356 could work, this test was expected and is "ok" imo

1008
70% es long scalp signal now,,,may not get the 1356 test lower first

1007
after lagging yest, ABT is now strong intraday, not giving up muych on the 3min charts, and trying to break yesterdays high

1004
if 1366 es comes b4 1356 es, then 1370 may be hit without a pb to 1356 first

958
[09:56:40] 1370 ES trgt intraday
[09:58:06] a move lower intraday first would fit the pattern
[09:58:28] MM, if able, will try to push it lower, they want to buy more ,,imo

950
 this is still retail tho i believe, MM are selling to them now, testing if they will buy or not,,,at 935,,,the MM were watching to see if they would buy without any selling pressure, now they are testing retail to buy with mild selling pressure, v interesting

938
[09:38:11] this is not MM or institut at the open here, its retail
[09:38:34] if the open holds, MM are likely to join and push it higher,,,will see what develops


936
unless the pattern fails, charts suggest ES to break 1360 resist for a test of 1370 resist,,and if it does get to 1370 , a later break even higher after a stall would finish the pattern

934
MIND up nicely at 2.5% higher, still holding for its 10--30% trgts

933
Market maker reports at the open, v interesting: it suggests that right now, MM are testing retail, to see if there is interest

928
ES is trading up 11 points, as posted yesterday, it still looks like it has some more upside before moving lower, will watch reactions today
Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wedn thoughts

342
llooks like aapl up into the close, broke 3min chart resist

337
short term, aapl looks better long overnite than spy imo

336
a close over 1350 ES would suggest that a move up has started, and still has more to go, unfinished, then later a short opp


336
imo, more upside for spx in coming hours days, before lower


254
62.49 ABT trgt 1, will take off small port there if able

252
Last 2 daily TLT candles look bearish

204
[14:04:17] i would wait for next bounce on 3min up, b4 short daytrades on ES, imo
 [14:04:35] 15min chart may want to hang around up here a bit

202
AAPL is pushing against resist here, marginal breaks higher on it dont mean much, BUT fact that there was not a quick rejection, and the 15 and 60m charts suggest aapl may break higher

158
ES could breakj higher tho it is at resist, respecting resist here, saving last 25% of scalp for higher,,,there are certain individ stocks whose charts say hold longer, those stocks might cause ES to move sideways as the stock goes higher, or they could push ES over its resist,,,watching reactions

155
 ES at trgt 3, 1360, still 1 more trgt higher for scalp from this morn from 1340

1159
poss bull morn star modifeied, 3 day pattern with today day two, on GLD dgp, if it gaps higher tomorrow that would be day 3,, the gold candles are larger than normal for the morn star, but still "good enough" imo,,,usually they are more like spinning tops on this pattern


1147
MIND has the bull piercing candle daily now, and may even go for the more bullish engulfing

1141
AAPL now testing 2 day high resist, looks breakable higher after poss stall

1113
[11:13:20] 1352, trgt 2 for scalps from 1340, for 12 points,, still have 2 more higher trgts
[11:13:27] last 1353

1046
active traders might be able to buy back at 1343

1046
1348 es from 1340, ES is at 8 point scalp trgt 1, large port, small ports may also consider taking off half or tight stop

1044
watching to see if MIND can put in a bull piercing line daily candle pattern today (opp of bear dark cloud cover),,looks possible atm


1041
TLT still looks shortablle, swing, or TMV 3x long

1037
still see a 10--30% move in MIND, swing long, still buyable now


1032
large ports or aggressive could scale in long here ES 1340, but its early entry

1030
ES on a 60% buy long intraday scalp signal, too early for action imo, but downside may stall here and start to base, watching reactions at 1339 es

1013
compare ABT to SPY, from Feb till now, decent hold time from hours to weeks on ABT

1006
[10:05:25] thats one reason i'm trading aapl long, for a trip back up to its earnings move higher
[10:05:34] longer term,,,bearish aapl, multiweek months

1003
a great way to play earnings is AFTER the annnouncement,,,sometimes it takes 1-4 weeks for the trade to setup, but wait for price after earnings to move AWAY from the price, then trade the stock for a trip BACK to the day after earnings level. So if DOWN on earnings, wait for rally, then SHORT for a return back to post earn low,,,,it works v well that strategy

stocks have a strong tendency to re-test the earnings reaction, it just takes time to setup

955
i wont keep posting all the large port scale in/out,,,,just small port ones,,,keep scalping 0.3%--2% profit trgts on ABT

954
large port, bought back ABT shares sold few min ago, ,,,smallport still holding

952
large port, abt already hit scalp trgt 1,,,smalll port, holding longer

945
daily chart of ABT is impressive, imo, abbot labs

944
went long ABT, enough shares to both scalp and swing, small port


Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tues thoughts

428
[16:27:35] after earnings, PCLN may present another short opp
[16:28:10] first entry on PCLN, took loss, looking to reshort possibly later

421
Market Maker reports still suggest higher, no change from 1-2-pm

356
1365 trgt on ES afterhours higher creep

336
only the aapl long is in the small port

336
AAPL charts still suggest bounce higher short term, before much lower long term,,keeping both AAPL positions

334
 11 points gain if stopped out of es

331
1358.75 stop on small port, or take profit at this trgt, makes sense

330
ES at trgt 3 of 4, for ES scalps from 1347, here at 1361

324
STX hit its 1% scalp trgt if anyone took that one,,,higher for swings on STX likely too,,,,tho i dont have it in small port

322
gap down expected tomorrow, TLT treasury

321
then short the bounce to a lower high later

320
[15:19:41] if the last bounce on daily spx were weaker i wouldnt do long,,,but the last bounce on the daily was decent,,,so keeping longs,,,
[15:20:04] april 24--may 5,,,suggests bulls wont give up rite away, imo


317
[15:16:23] small port, took profits on SLV
[15:16:35] could go higher but not taking chance on the small port
[15:16:55] still have gold swings, if it continues higher,,,,,SLV was a quick trade

253
AAPL caught a bid, will put in a bull hammer candle if it closes here or higher

246
mental not hard stop could be 1350


245
large port ES scalp from 1347 is at trgt 2 now, 1353,,,small ports could hold longer, or take profit


239
74%

229
73%

227
still at 72% es long signal scalp, no change

218
TLT swing shorts still look good imo, or TMV 3x

135
ES still on 72% long scalp, fwiw,,,but its at resist now of course

131
[13:30:47] large scalps from 1378 es could take off some here, smaller would hold longer
[13:30:48] es
[13:30:59] #1347 lol

126
conserv small ports would take the scalp profit here, i'm holding it in small port game, would give $170ish profit if exit now, on 1000 shrs

124
slv now at trgt 2, large port, holding 100% in small port still


117
silver at scalp trgt 1 now, looking for it to break it higher, large port taking some off,,,small port holding it all

1065111
[13:11:41] ES, 70% now, long sclap
[13:11:51] 134750


[13:05:40] 69% es long
[13:05:51] may see 70% in next 1-5min
[13:06:19] early entry longs could work here, 1347

1259
SLV needs to break 2852 to get upside accel, undert it atm


1258
gold has it too, i chose slv for scalp since its more volatile, one could use AGQ but simply used more shares in SLV since its more litqui higher vol better fils

1254
slv at 70% buy

1253
long SLV

1240
in time, i expect MIND to move 25% higher, similar to VHC 33% move

1232
spy upro tna qqq qld may present scalp opps too, but i'll use STX if i enter. Why? Because I'm willing to hold STX overnite if it doesn't move, thus it's a hybridscalp not a pure one

1228
STX may be ready for scalp long in 9 minutes, wathicng it, 30.03 last

1221
depending on how this reacts, a nice rally is possible today tho not confirmed, but when the ES gets 68% "this early" in day, often it will rally nicely if it can get over 72%,, the next pb on the 3min charts should give clues

1219
at 1349 es

1219
ES  SPX is at 68% buy long scalp, intraday signal

1027
ES could head straight down to 1342, but imo it will bounce first before getting there, and may trap some short on the bounce, esp if 1342 does not get tested for hours

1022
added to MIND long position, may exit half of it today

932
bought AAPL long, enough shares to both swing and scalp, near same price that i exited it yest, if it moves today i'll take profits on some of it
Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday thoughts

359
i decided on the phys metal gld dgp, instead of prior trade in miners gdx nugt au , gld daily a bit stronger

356
went long gold, swing, via 2x DGP, after waiting 3 days, it seems to have settled in this support area

152
changed ,,,,exited AAPL long here, breakeven,no profit or minimal profit, same reason as STX,,,,still have other longs in BAL  DBA  MIND  TMV

142
aapl trgt 1 long is 578, will exit small port if it hits there

128
ES is rite at resist and i do not know how it will react, so being a bit conservative and exit at the resist

127
small port, took 1.1% profit on STX long from entry this morn, still have the aapl long,, still see higher stx poss, but may pb, so took profit on it, also still have a long position on aapl so not totally out of longs

1239
larger port, taking 1% profit on stx from this morn makes sense, on partial shares, holding 100% for now in small port

1235
AAPL, same targets higher, for quick/mid term long, ,,,and lowr for longterm swing shorts

1233
from a swing perspective, gold

1233
Gold charts GC futures, gld etf, continue to act well, following the expected pattern properly for last 2 days,,,i have no position yet there

1050
went long stx here

1020
579 first aapl trgt higher

1019
[10:18:41] for quick/mid term swings aapl long still looks good, and aapl short long term,,,
[10:19:05] aapl long still valid at this price, quik/mid term term, imo

Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday thoughts

346
half off for 2 pts gain

346
es stop to breakeven svalp in case of sudden down

335
long here could work for scalpers, that dont mind tite stops, with stop 1362.50 or 1364.75

332
ES 1371 trgt by 4:15pm today, just something to watch, tricky to trade it, but pattern suggsts it

327
SPX charts today, are like the Gold GLD charts yest, a bounce in SPY like gold did, would fit the spx pattern


327
[15:26:24] many things pointing to bounce to a lower hi
[15:26:52] it also appears that the SPX is going to start to coil on the daily,,,aka sym triangle,,,not there yet but looks like one will form

SPX charts today, are like the Gold GLD charts yest, a bounce in SPY like gold did, would fit the spx pattern

313
MIND stock imo looks good for long swing, 10-20% move expected eventually, similar to VHC 33%, tho it took a few weeks

157
next move lower on the gold futures, 15min charts, should finisht the pattern that i have been watching since last week, may need to wait for monday to go long gold

129
exited IBM, small gain 1%ish

117
i'm out of PCLN short, it looks like it wants higher, will look for a better opp somewhere else,,,did not act as expected, 3.6%ish loss

1254
The wins/losses assume buying at 10:30 and selling at 4:00pm,,, clearly the results would be better for SPY longs if one bought below the 10:30 am price.  I'm not trading SPY based on that, just fyi fwiw

1253
For the past 2 years, the following backtest answers the question: "At 4pm today, will SPY be higher or lower than it's 10:30 AM price". SPY 49% wins, 58 wins, 60 losses, 0.37% profit (less than 1%). SH 41 wins, 46 losers, 47% winners, 4.67% gain


1211
61% ES buy long scalp signal, needs 78--85% to move, entries sometimes made 70--74% area

1202
changed my mind. took profits on spxu,,,holding the ibm shorts still

1159
[11:57:46] went LONG aapl here, totally diff trade than multimonth hold short in aapl
[11:58:41] i still expect aapl to bounce short term, then go lower , long term, have enough shares to take some profits in aapl if it moves today
[11:58:47] aapl only, i will not buy es
[11:58:55] aapl i do not mind holding overnite if needed
[11:59:03] if it moves today i'll take a quick profit
[11:59:05] no spy for me
[11:59:13] holding spxu spy shorts still

1157
went LONG aapl here, totally diff trade than multimonth hold short in aapl
i still expect aapl to bounce short term, then go lower , long term, have enough shares to take some profits in aapl if it moves today

1147
if MIND moves higher today, i will sell half and keep half, in small port

1145
bought more MIND, swing long

1111
[11:10:39] bought TMV which is 3x bear us treas 20 yr
[11:10:53] TLT is tricky up here, but think a pb in coming days poss
[11:11:23] early entry, so smaller size to start ,,and its 3x also

1053
gold futures are whipsawing around here, still waiting, now gold is lower and gave up its earlier gains

1041
exited FITB small gain, 0.3%,,,offsets loss on wmt,,,these things look bounceabvle

1033
so positions now, after all that LOL:  shorts in FITB  IBM  PCLN  SPX (via SPXU),,,,longs in BAL   DBA  MIND

1031
took small 0.3% loss on WMT short from yest, its not weak as i expected, so will re-eval that one later

1029
FITB short i'm holding because tho its at support, looks breakable, and also have reduced risk on exiting intc yest and de today

1027
took small 1% profit on DE short swing, i entered too early, so profit is small, and may re-enter later,,,es may try to bounce intraday, active trading strat

10121017
1376 is an es support zone,,,need to watch to make sure this is not a false break lower, still see lower on ES but watching out for that,,, a retest on 1376 will likely stall on first try, but if itests 1376 "too soon" that could turn out to be bullish,,,,still bearish swings atm, just stuff to watch that would suggest Mr Market perhaps up to somjething diff


swing strat:  stay short all day, and poss bounce on mon tues
[10:09:40] the bounce would be shortable again tho imo
[10:10:29] active trading strategy would be to take some profits on some swing shorts today, and look to reenter higher,,,passive would hold the shorts
[10:11:11] monday may NOT present a buy long opp, right now my swing signals and 60min and daily charts suggest that selling will continue, but momentum may start to lessen on downside, too early for long entry

946
aapl down 1.5% vs es down .7%, aapl weaker

944
PCLN now filling its gap lower on daily charts, will it bounce or break lower?  likely stall and bounce when gap filled, but i still see a further break lower in coming hours days

904
GOLD:   from my post yest noontime: IF gold futures up to 1645, and a pb to a higher low, and i will likely buy GLD or similar, may take awhile to form,,,if it bases long enough, may enter early, but on sideliness still for now ---

Today so far, they tested 1642 this morn, near 1645, giving it more time

853
 oil short is now at trgt, and now only 25% left in large port, small port i exited early yest,,down another 2%ish today, 9% move higher on SCO oil in 2 days till now

843
did anyone ever think how "cancelling" the unemployment extensions for many people, will affect the numbers? it would reduce claims, an easy way to manipulate those numbers, at election year, making it appear that less people are unemployed when the true number is actually different

832
Inital reaction to jobs report: ES down 6 points to 1378, and a quick bounce back up to yesterdays close. Watching further reactions in coming minutes hours.

830
Overnight GOLD futures were basically flat, it is starting to move a bit higher now, still watching for possible new long entries in GLD, AU, GDX, NUGT or similar, no entry yet, same plan as yesterday for entry.


Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thursday thoughts

242
if short from 1397, makes sense to tighten stop on second half remaining, 1386 last es, or take profits here, or stop at 1387/89

214
whipsaw action in cotton futures as it nears its end of day
huge volume in cotton here

208
ES making marginally lower lows intraday, typical of wedges 15min charts


159
went long MIND ,,,its a bit early but at support, so trying this again, have traded it b4 a few timnes

154
re-shorted WMT swing, downside wont be as large as first one but looks to retest the lows,daily chart

147
i think that MIND will do what VHC has done, later

143
 VHC is up 17% today, not a typo

108
cotton CT may try a bounce higher now

107
watching corn and cotton futures from now till 2pm, 230pm, impt time for those futures

106
IBM still swing shortable here imo

105
ES didnt even make the 1394 bounce trgt, v weak, at least so far

104
ES still in the 15min falling wedge


1242
[12:41:47] INTC put could work here imo
[12:41:58] *puts options, tho shorting the underlying still better imo


1237
15min ES looks like forming a falling wedge, that needs lower b4 signif bounce, bear while under 1394/96 imo

1233
[12:32:41] out of FLIR long
[12:32:56] only 1% gain, but i dont trust that it can continue to resist ES weakness
[12:33:00] may buy bak later

1222
FLIR long is holding up ok, up 1.4% from yest close despite ES down  0.4%, but might exit FLIR today in small port, all of it

1218
took the 3.5% gain here on SCO on small port, still see lower but oil may try to rally intraday, out for now 100% on small port,,,that position was red 1-2% before turing around

1210
IF gold futures up to 1645, and a pb to a higher low, and i will likely buy GLD or similar, may take awhile to form,,,if it bases long enough, may enter early, but on sideliness still for now

under 1645 gold bearish still imo, until further basing

1205
[12:04:36] if ES gets to 1383 today, it will likely break the 1380 in coming days, after poss bounce
[12:04:43] 1383 is "too low" imo


1157
INTC is FINALLY showing a little weakness lol,,,other day someone asked about bear engulf cande,,,,,if INTC closed like this or lower, it would be a bear engulf

1155
  1397 scalps makes sense to take off half here if short from 1397, at 1392 last
[11:55:28] and under 1394 bearish on other half

1149
[11:49:38] 70% effect here, should move lower, then stall bounce to 1394,,if unable to get back over 1394, bearish intraday
[11:49:51] not done with down yet tho, on 3min

400
[15:59:45] a look at daily ES: we possibly have a lowre high forming now
[15:59:54] from mar 26
[16:00:09] to be followed by a break of 1350 for a lower low

357
[15:56:53] usually,not always (legalese :) ) the 60min needs sideways for 4-12 hours on spy to base, b4 a valid long presents
[15:57:10] after a big move like this

355
[15:54:50] SPY spx charts daily and 60min suggest short any rally tomorrow (not necesarily right at open),,,then another move lower on 60min,,,then SPY will turn sideways / bounce bias for 1-3 days,,,if the current candle count and velocity remain konstant
[15:55:14] 60 min says "short rally, unfinished on downside" imo

349
[15:48:48] gold is following the pattern, for now,,,still waiting until tomorrow,,,if it gaps up, oh well, will re-eval,,,on sidelines now,,,au nem nugt, one more low poss if gold decides to move lower
[15:49:02] but for now, gold looks to be basing bullishly,for swing

314
[15:14:05] over 1389, es may try to rally
[15:14:17] still swing bearish imo

308
[15:07:09] currently considering the following for poss long swings, but not today, mayb tomorrow: BRY ABMD FRX

[15:08:09] their charts are diff than spx spy

1136253
[14:52:51] 64% long ES scalp signal just rang, not actionable but tighten stops from 11:30AM short from 1397 makes sense, esp now, imo
[14:53:01] 1385.75 last


70%

1133
if 1395.50 es breaks, could take a trip back to the lows or lower

1132
agressive could short ES here, if willing to have either a tite stop and stopout/re-enter,,OR willing to use a wider stop and poss add later, 1397

1129
68% ES sell signal intraday, fwiw, i'm not taking action on it, this is a bit early in the day to get to 68% tho, usually takes longer, could prove to be bearish later in day, and poss short rally opp will present, on sidelines watching reactinos for now, since short in other individ stocks swing already, tho the 68% is an intraday signal not swing sig

1105
sco 3650 trgt, but if it hits 3597 today i'll take gains in the small port, last 3529

1053
[10:52:56] i still have flir,,, i plan to keep it until the 60min chart starts looking tired, 23 and 24ish trgts, i might actively trade it (buy sell a lot)
[10:53:33] if FLIR tests 2260 i think it will stall, but if it can get there, i think it will break higher later

1032
conservative small ports might make sense to take profit here on sco, its only at 2.5% profit, but it was red 1% b4 it turned green, tho for now i'm trying to hold it in the small port

1024
ibm looks breakable lower

1024
watching IBM and other dow stocks with high price tags, for break of 60min horiz support, should give clues to direction of DOW, DIA, DXD, DDM etc, as the dow is weighted by stock price not by mkt cap

10114
large port taking some SCO off here, 2.64% gain after being red for a day or so, small port holding for now, oil shorts

oil near its 103 trgt, so took some off large port

1007
considering action in the us dollary (part of reason why oil is lower today), the agricul sector is doing "ok", dba corn bal etfs, futures /zc  /ct

1004
PCLN still swing shortabel, for aggressive, cautioun they have earnings May 9, i intend to hold thru earnings unless a big move lower made b4 then, which it might,,,sized accordingly

954
60min USO as well as oil futures charts sugggest holding the oil shorts all day, maybe longer, UNLESS it makes another big move down, to 103, 102ish, or approaching 3% lower than yest close

938
oil hit trgt 2, 10375,, still holding for lower 2 trgts, short via sco

927
[09:27:05] for holds 3 weeks, 3 months, and 6 months, longs in small cap stocks in $10-25 do very well, regardless of whether SPX and IWM are bearish or bullish
[09:27:37] they give 5-40% but require patience, as the moves come fast and sometimes take longer than expected

922
oil on the move lower, having broken 104.50 trgt, next 103.75,  103ish, 101.50ish, holding shorts for now

Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wedn thoughts

259
74% es sell now, 1397.50

244252
thinking lower aapl, then one more bounce higher, if it goes like that, i'll add to the multimonth hold aapl short, entry 3,,,not yet, keeping with 2 entries for now,, may take days weeks to set up that third entry


[14:44:31] not shorting utx,,,maybe tomorrow CHRW short will give an opp, unsure
 [14:44:41] chrw=transports sector

238
cotton futures closed 2:30pm,,,put in a doji, neutral candle , but the 2pm action up on CT is encouragin if long

236
70% sell ES now

234
ES now shortable imo, 1398

233
out of K kellogg long, same reason, small 0.72% gain

228
a move higher in cotton at this timeframe, may be bullish for tomorrow if it holds near here


227
cotton futures caught a bid at this impt "cotton hour", popped higher

224
out of FRX breakeven,
want to reduce risk longside

216
oil has moved ower on decent volume, but has not broken support, but test on high vol could break it lower, watching, big 3min candles now

212
for oil, i think 60min needs more time b4 long, for swings, the 15min has bear topping tails on it, watching to see what it does

209
ES on a 70% buy, aggressive could scalp but i'm staying out

158
imo, oil still shortasble here, may even move nicely lower today, shortable at this price, via short USO or long SCO 33.90

148
ES is on a 60% buy scalp, not actionable here, just fwiw,,but suggests its early to short scalp

1258
FRX trgt 1 is 34.97

1246
If kellog K gets to 51.97 i will take profit and look to re-enter later

1245
long FRX,swing, or will close it sooner if it moves

1222
if chrw tranpsorts can get up near 63 area, might short it swing, last 6183

1130
oil now in the 104.50--105.00 support zone, testing,,,looking for break lower, may stall at 104.40ish

1125
imo, bearish while ES under 1399, swing/intraday


1053
long K, swing

1051
 long FLIR swing

1002
oil shorts, oil futures need to break 105 to get tractions lower, looks breakable tho stall on first try likely
959
BAL target for today is a modest 1% higher, swing targets 2%  4%  8% 14%

958
added BAL cotton longs here, swing, to supplement DBA, instead of adding more dba

948
ES is down 5-6 points this morn, which is good for multiple short positions. Keeping them all for now, no exits yet. Charts suggest holding them 4 hours--3 days longer, will see what they look like through the day and may take some off early.

Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tuesday thoughts

351
out of stx for now, scalp smallprofit, pizza beer

349
32.12 stx stop

335
74% es sell

326
closed GDX at breakeven, will eval again later,,,need to reduce risk due to many open positions

323
[15:21:58] heres 1405, and it looks breakable lower, but watching reactions still
[15:22:22] 1405,25,,,,considering trgt from few hrs ago as being hit

312
if scalping ES from 1409, makes sense to take off half 1405 trgt if it gets there, and tighten stop on other half, or similar

225
[14:24:54] 72% now
[14:25:08] might only see 1405 trgt, watching reactions

222
es 70% sell at 1409, intraday

216
still think 1405 es test

206
IBM has broken 15min chart support, marginally, watching to see if it follows thru lower or not

136
[13:36:18] over 1405 ES bullish, break of it bearish, intraday,imo
[13:36:39] tho i'm scalping stocks short nonetheless, diff range on stx than es

135
chart intraday suggests mini trgt of 1405 es lower, 1409 last

127
pcln testing support, gap fill lower trgt if supp breaks

125
[13:23:38] 3186 lim stx, lowered for now to cover
[13:25:37] trying to squeeze a little more from stx scalp,if able, hence lower order

102
PCLN, moving lower, still shortable imo,swing, but beware earnings may 9


1224
[12:24:16] stx is in a daily uptrend, so being cautious, i would NOT have shorted STX if it did not have that gap down on april 27
[12:24:26] but the gap down 4/27---could be warning sign on stx

1207
32.01 limit will take profit on half of stx if it gets there

1146
added second piece of STX short here, 3234ish

1037
stx is combo swing/scalp,,,enough shares to scalp it if it moves today
stx and sjm diff strategy,,,just looking to short the pb, its in an uptrend and buyable again later,,,i was long it a few times,posted here

1033
shorted STX 32.00 (previous long few days ago_)

1014
watching reactions at resistance. on daily ES, nothing impressive imo, yet, maybe later, from swing perspect

947
AAPL  is up 1% today,,i plan to reshort aapl quick swing again,,,holding the longterm short on aapl stil,,,2 diff trades,,,no entries yet in aapl, may be a few hours

938
bought SCO (bearishg oil) here, if it moves lower i will add to it perhaps.
Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".