Friday thoughts

346
half off for 2 pts gain

346
es stop to breakeven svalp in case of sudden down

335
long here could work for scalpers, that dont mind tite stops, with stop 1362.50 or 1364.75

332
ES 1371 trgt by 4:15pm today, just something to watch, tricky to trade it, but pattern suggsts it

327
SPX charts today, are like the Gold GLD charts yest, a bounce in SPY like gold did, would fit the spx pattern


327
[15:26:24] many things pointing to bounce to a lower hi
[15:26:52] it also appears that the SPX is going to start to coil on the daily,,,aka sym triangle,,,not there yet but looks like one will form

SPX charts today, are like the Gold GLD charts yest, a bounce in SPY like gold did, would fit the spx pattern

313
MIND stock imo looks good for long swing, 10-20% move expected eventually, similar to VHC 33%, tho it took a few weeks

157
next move lower on the gold futures, 15min charts, should finisht the pattern that i have been watching since last week, may need to wait for monday to go long gold

129
exited IBM, small gain 1%ish

117
i'm out of PCLN short, it looks like it wants higher, will look for a better opp somewhere else,,,did not act as expected, 3.6%ish loss

1254
The wins/losses assume buying at 10:30 and selling at 4:00pm,,, clearly the results would be better for SPY longs if one bought below the 10:30 am price.  I'm not trading SPY based on that, just fyi fwiw

1253
For the past 2 years, the following backtest answers the question: "At 4pm today, will SPY be higher or lower than it's 10:30 AM price". SPY 49% wins, 58 wins, 60 losses, 0.37% profit (less than 1%). SH 41 wins, 46 losers, 47% winners, 4.67% gain


1211
61% ES buy long scalp signal, needs 78--85% to move, entries sometimes made 70--74% area

1202
changed my mind. took profits on spxu,,,holding the ibm shorts still

1159
[11:57:46] went LONG aapl here, totally diff trade than multimonth hold short in aapl
[11:58:41] i still expect aapl to bounce short term, then go lower , long term, have enough shares to take some profits in aapl if it moves today
[11:58:47] aapl only, i will not buy es
[11:58:55] aapl i do not mind holding overnite if needed
[11:59:03] if it moves today i'll take a quick profit
[11:59:05] no spy for me
[11:59:13] holding spxu spy shorts still

1157
went LONG aapl here, totally diff trade than multimonth hold short in aapl
i still expect aapl to bounce short term, then go lower , long term, have enough shares to take some profits in aapl if it moves today

1147
if MIND moves higher today, i will sell half and keep half, in small port

1145
bought more MIND, swing long

1111
[11:10:39] bought TMV which is 3x bear us treas 20 yr
[11:10:53] TLT is tricky up here, but think a pb in coming days poss
[11:11:23] early entry, so smaller size to start ,,and its 3x also

1053
gold futures are whipsawing around here, still waiting, now gold is lower and gave up its earlier gains

1041
exited FITB small gain, 0.3%,,,offsets loss on wmt,,,these things look bounceabvle

1033
so positions now, after all that LOL:  shorts in FITB  IBM  PCLN  SPX (via SPXU),,,,longs in BAL   DBA  MIND

1031
took small 0.3% loss on WMT short from yest, its not weak as i expected, so will re-eval that one later

1029
FITB short i'm holding because tho its at support, looks breakable, and also have reduced risk on exiting intc yest and de today

1027
took small 1% profit on DE short swing, i entered too early, so profit is small, and may re-enter later,,,es may try to bounce intraday, active trading strat

10121017
1376 is an es support zone,,,need to watch to make sure this is not a false break lower, still see lower on ES but watching out for that,,, a retest on 1376 will likely stall on first try, but if itests 1376 "too soon" that could turn out to be bullish,,,,still bearish swings atm, just stuff to watch that would suggest Mr Market perhaps up to somjething diff


swing strat:  stay short all day, and poss bounce on mon tues
[10:09:40] the bounce would be shortable again tho imo
[10:10:29] active trading strategy would be to take some profits on some swing shorts today, and look to reenter higher,,,passive would hold the shorts
[10:11:11] monday may NOT present a buy long opp, right now my swing signals and 60min and daily charts suggest that selling will continue, but momentum may start to lessen on downside, too early for long entry

946
aapl down 1.5% vs es down .7%, aapl weaker

944
PCLN now filling its gap lower on daily charts, will it bounce or break lower?  likely stall and bounce when gap filled, but i still see a further break lower in coming hours days

904
GOLD:   from my post yest noontime: IF gold futures up to 1645, and a pb to a higher low, and i will likely buy GLD or similar, may take awhile to form,,,if it bases long enough, may enter early, but on sideliness still for now ---

Today so far, they tested 1642 this morn, near 1645, giving it more time

853
 oil short is now at trgt, and now only 25% left in large port, small port i exited early yest,,down another 2%ish today, 9% move higher on SCO oil in 2 days till now

843
did anyone ever think how "cancelling" the unemployment extensions for many people, will affect the numbers? it would reduce claims, an easy way to manipulate those numbers, at election year, making it appear that less people are unemployed when the true number is actually different

832
Inital reaction to jobs report: ES down 6 points to 1378, and a quick bounce back up to yesterdays close. Watching further reactions in coming minutes hours.

830
Overnight GOLD futures were basically flat, it is starting to move a bit higher now, still watching for possible new long entries in GLD, AU, GDX, NUGT or similar, no entry yet, same plan as yesterday for entry.


Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".