Thursday, May 17, 2012

Thurs thoughts


353
right now, TLT is near its 3pm price, so no difference atm

350
TLT close today more impt than SPY SPX close, imo,, TLT should stay over its support. TLT often closes at 4pm near its 3pm price, a significant distance away from its 3pm price at 4pm often suggests continuation in the same direction of the differential, and SPX often does the inverse

347
imo if short makes sense to take profit,,,es chart suggests 1311 test

344
ES "should" be at 1311 not here at 1305, may bounce b4 415pm,,

340
if GDX  doesnt make much of a move b4 close today, may change mind and keep the remaining 20% of GDX  NUGT, already exited other piece earlier today

338/
TLT should stay over 123.60ish, if it breaks that, may go long TNA  EEM  SPY  or similar

327
NUGT or GDX long on a pb could work, tomorrow or later

326
i am going to exit GDX  NUGT today and keep GLD DGP,,, still see higher NUGT GDX but just dont know if it wants another pb and how much of a pb,,,the GDX NUGT chart does suggest more UP before a pb,,,but i'm electing to take the conservative approach since the port has other stocks in it, some related

314
interesting that the last 3 candles on 15min chart have bull tails on them, see if bulls want to rally or not, they need over 1315 for any traction intraday

312
3min ES bull hammer trying to form, 5min bull harami, intraday only candles

306
Gold futures are tight range,,,it may make a move in the next hour

305
NUGT   GDX look like they have more upside for swings, tho NUGT up 16%ish today, it has another 21% higher poss,,,sounds like a lot but that stuff moves,

303
TLT will likely close over 123.60 today, but in coming days expecting lower,,if it does close under .60ish that would be more bearish for TLT

300
123.99 last TLT

259
TLT back at resist,,,still see lower TLT for swing, or higher TMV, this is a nice spot to add TMV long or TLT short, or could be a v good first entry

229
gold 60min looks like it has more upside

219
charts suggests TLT may pullback about 4% in coming days

1217
also i'm wanting to reduce risk here, since on vacation, and not monitoring this all day long,,,so i'm not getting perfect exits

1215
out of multimonth AAPL swing short for 1%ish tolerable loss, will look to re-enter it later, not worth the risk of holding here for only 1%, entered shorts 596 and 455 approx,, i was too early on AAPL short, so taking this move down as a gift and opp to exit and re-eval, i think AAPL goes lower than 500 but will wait for bounce before re-entering, may trade AAPL long first for quick swing, then short later for multimonth short hold

1205
also exited DBA agric...took a small loss on that one,,,will prob go higher but want to reduce risk
I am being patient with the MIND and VTNC swings, those can move ultrafast higher too, so holding them still

1200
NUGT is up a whopping 18% today, Exited 80% of NUGT swing, keeping a little for higher

946
BBL: on vacation

945
if multiweek multimonth short AAPL, might make sense to exit half or all of it here, and look to re-enter later, i've tightened stops and will take a loss on this today if stopped out (LIFO loss on first gain, gain on second quarter, for a net small loss),, i still see lower AAPL later but may be able to exit and re-short at higher levels

BBL: on vacation
Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

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