Friday thoughts

[15:57:17] took gains early on TMV 3x treas tlt short,,,will look to re-enter
[15:57:26] about 9% move on tmv higher

[13:35:43] intraday tlt roadmap played out, bounce to 124.83, then broke 124.50 to 124.18

[13:28:27] 72% es long bias rang
[13:28:39] could pop in ES in next 12 min

[13:08:50] intraday TLT up to 124.90 then under 124.50 is one pattern roadmap, 124.60 last
[13:04:46] nice nasty candle daily building on TLT daily, good for shorts tlt or tmv longs
[12:53:41] MM continue to sell into this for last few days,,BUT as mentioned it can keep drifting higher while they do so
[12:49:06] 1438 and 1443 es trgt,,, 1443= 1438+ (1437-1432)
[12:43:31] 70% es long bias intraday just rang, "up here" at 1435
[11:44:56] not saying tza gets the 14.41 today, but that would be stretched enough imo to merit early entry
i will buy tza at next lower trgt 14.41, if it gets there, today,, starter position only, same style as gdx except less concern with decay

[11:32:02] i just entered an order to short GDX 51.20, fwiw,,,idk if it gets there today or not but if so i'll short it

[11:28:51] i might take a SMALL starter position on GDX short today, but i will use more shares of GDX and not DUST,,,gdx is volatile enough,,,if i have to hold the gdx for awhile it wont decay like dust
[11:29:00] not posting that in the room tho

[11:20:49] imo,,,shorting spx iwm will be easier when TLT under 124, and pref under 122/120 area,,not here at 125
[11:21:33] TLT suggests that SPX may have a final surge higher b4 a pb,,,idk if it happens but thats one reason i prefer waiting short,,,

[10:59:18] yest tza target was tza at 14.63 when ES hit 1436,, es last 1436,,, tza last 1467,,still not buying it tho its near trgt buy area

[10:53:48] the reports almost always give signals before the tick moves, the tick moves when the mkt price hits the levels numbers
[10:51:42] ES is right at my market maker # from yest, been hovering there
[10:51:57] MM still selling into this but not harshly,,,they can let it drift higher
[10:52:26] the market maker investment bank reports are very useful, only 1 tool of many,,but  can almost just trade off of those

[10:29:53] 10 pointish range in TLT today, vs 5 pointish in SPY,,, the TLT is often more volatile, wider

[10:12:20] tza approaching near yesterday's target move lower, but i wont buy it yet
[10:12:45] maybe i'll buy later,,idk
[10:12:59] the thing is,,,yesterdays rally is highly advertised,,,to retail
[10:13:16] "highest # in 3-4 years " they are broadcasting media
[10:13:33] that could make it hard on shorts imo,,,till it calms down,,,and is forgotten
[10:13:45] tho i dont trade news,,,new 3 yr high is a signif chart event

801
If TMV hits target, it will be a nice 12% move from the corresponding TLT 127.10 area posted 2 days ago.

AMD AMD remains red 11% atm but i'm holding that swing still. these small caps can really shift around. remember that MIND was down red 11% at one point, and then rallied up just as hard into an area that allowed a profit yesterday, though clearly I entered MIND too early to begin with.  Also, the TMV position is 7 times larger than the small AMD position, so a loss on AMD won't damage the portfolio badly. Risk management through both position size and diversification.

7:38 AM
TLT and TMV are trading near yesterdays level of "take profits on half of shares and hold other half".  However, I have RAISED the TMV sell order to its next higher target instead, and will see what it does.

TMV 55.88 is my current order to take gains on TMV.

ES hit 1437, or 1 point over yesterday's posted target of 1436. Market Maker Investment Bank reports provided an accurate 1436 level. ES may continue higher still. No short setup to enter swing.

TZA is at 14.85 now, but i will NOT just auto buy it at yesterday 14.63ish target lower. I will wait.


Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".