Wednesday, September 19, 2012

wedn thoughts

345
3.80 mini trgt AMD interim

335
no MM buying in the SPX large caps, interesting
that combo is often bullish for swings

334
gentle buying in russell here, IWM, by investment banks, nothing major, but buying

258
78%

246
a move below 1453 ES would re-set /invalid the setup 1459.50 --->1464

236
AMD may move up nicely b4 the close, early stage breakout forming, last 3.60

232
if ES hits 1459.50 before 2:44PM,  then 1464 trgt ES intraday

226
STILL no change in Market maker investment bank buy sell levels,,,12:41pm post info still valid, unchanged

222
looks like it should be at 78% es alert now, but remains 76%, has not rung

208
imo if ES tests 1459 again today, it is likely to break over it, after a possible stall or pb first

200
 ES has held the 1455,,,still on 76%

136
76% only valid for 9 minutes, while es over 1455, else it will drop bak to 72% prob

134
decent intraday moves often happen at 78-85%

134
es 76% now

131
 might get some movement in next 12 minutes,,,"games" being played may cause it, just something to watch, 1457 es last

115
agressive could take here 6480 upro or es 1457, im not trading it since already in from lower levels
 or tmv 5815

108
imo,,,the 118 TLT will break lower, after another stall bounce,,,but will see if n when it tests there
: then,,,an opp for tlt longs and spx shorts, finally


TLT market maker and investment banking buy sell levels are similarly spaced to the spx ones: for TLT 118 buy  and 125 sell for the biggest of the investment firms levels atm

so still down bias on tlt for 118

1242
with that type of MM buy sell spread, scalp traders would have tight stop losses, while swing traders would have a loose stop and possibly even buy a pb if one comes

1241
no change in MM buy sell levels,,,which means still have marginally higher hi trgt, with a move lower that would be larger than up move since their buy level is further from here than sell, tho rite now there is no suggestion of a move lower

 bias still for the higher trgt atm

1236
still watching for sso 63.73 mini trgt, last 6346,,,stall likely if it hits .80

1159
77% es long rang,,,tho it does not look like it "should have" LOL,,es 1457

1156
es 1488 would be a target for those that use bull flag calculations, on a break over 1471 ES,,of course that requires a breakout,,, if ES did get there, i would likely short that, as it would finally be stretched extreme

1151
with TLT short still likely to make larger move than SPX longs

1150
imo,, , timing analysis suggests swings on longside for next 4-16 hours in cash market imo,,,esp as long as es is over 1440, i know some will disagree,,,just a thought

1127
early stage breakout attempt highher on SPY 60min bull flag now,,,watching for success or failuyre

1125
sso mini trgt 63.73, last 63.32

1123
the MM levels are not derived purely from SPX  SPY  ES data,,,data on the dow 30 stocks and sp 500 individ stocks is also used, and then a percent is calculated, and then applied to the spx indice

1122
1459ish ES still trgtr on ES,,,markt maker invest banks have NOT yet raised their sell levels, tho i believe later they will,,,until they do, ES is capped at 1460ish

1119
74% long bias es

1113
ES algorithim is also throwing out short bias signals,,but i'm not posting those, since my strat right now is to only scalp long with idea of holding overnite if needed,,,when SPX gives short swing signal then i'll scalp short but not yet

: atm,,, algo still has an up bias long to it

1105
70% ES long bias just rang, 1454.75

1052
conversely, poss longs in GDX or NUGR again, at gdx pb to 52.25ish area

1052
GDX may go up another 5%, or 15% lower on dust, imo,,,so waiting for now,,,may be interested in DUST in that area

1029
still watching bull flag on spy spx es 60min,,,it looks like its trying to break higher, but no confirmation yet,,,its one of many things to watch, for swings and possibly scalps

1014
 watch 1460 ES,,,its curr investment bank sell level,,,it just so happens to align near the ES overnite high, tho thats not how the # was derived

1013
market makers investment bank buy level curr down at 1440ish ES, atm they prefer to buy there if able,,,,will see if they raise either the bid or asks

1011
atm,, market makers are sitting at 1459 ES and will sell there,,, until they raise it, ES wont move higher,,,but they can pull that suddenly any moment

1005
: TMV longs may provide better returns gains than UPRO longs, fwiw,,,tho trading both

1004
still have upro from 2 days ago, same trgts on es spx higher, still buyable here imo

1002
added TMV, loing, layer 2

Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

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