exiting sco scalp in vse port
253
74% down bias rang, es 1502 just now
232
if TLT can climb over 11750 today that would be signif,imo
219
IF es tests 1500.25 lower, its likely to break under it after a poss bounce
205
watching what TLT does in 2-3pm hour, often it gives clues to the 3-4pm action in spx es
205
TLT TMF now at swing buy levels, not adding it to vse.marketwatch.com port tho
148
uso hit that 3527 and had a rejection of it, watching to see if it follows thru lower or not, could do one more pop upt to 3532 b4 lower,,,,sometimes the levels work, sometimes they dont, overall imo i have good results from them
138
uso, may break here, watching
132
uso looks like it could go a lil to 3527ish,,,will see if rejected,,,atm thinking it will be, but oil can just move fast both ways
131
watching 3527 USO, under that bearish ,,,,of course could go over it then lower, but # im watching atm,,,over it, i may consider sco exit on sco bounce uso pb
129
MM still selling oil gently, i remain in the sco for now
115
MM continue to gently sell the oil here, intraday,,,if they raise the ask i'll exit the scalp but for now, holding it, also chart pattern looking for under 3522 on uso,,,using sco for the trade as posted b4
1252
MM just raised ask again: may pop higher here, es,, but they r still gently selling it
1245
but the MM "lowered ask" is more bearish than the "lowered bid" as mentinoed earlier, so imo this actino is bearish at lesat untill they change it
1245
unlike earlier this morn, the MM are now gently selling this, price drifint up but reports say they r sellin it, that often leads to lower prices later in the day, but MM may also just continue the gentle selling
1241
lim order to sell SCO 36.60, may change later but order hanging out there in case of sudden move (which can happn in oil), scalp
1231
1127 tza MM equiv sell level, buy level raised to 1099 from 1070 on tza (equiv based on IWM not tza itself)
1224
May see a pop in tza here higher, intraday, Market Maker just changed
1223
trgt is 3506 lower on USO, last 3533
1223
Market Makers gently selling oil, so added to shorts
1223
added more sco. this allows for scalp size position, to take profit on a smaller move
1119
1076 tza remains buy level investment banks
1115
uvxy "should" react to 1093 same way it reacted to 1160 this morn, except this time should bounce up
1109
1070--1115 is UVXY buy zone, imo, last 1112
1103
why did i buy sco (oil short) early? because measure the dist of first pb and dist of second fast pb...they r almost same...bought hte 2nd lower low (shorted second higher hi in oil)....now oil can go higher first of course, but decided to dip my toe in here, participate if oil doesnt get higher
1056
OIL is now making a higher hi intraday as we expected...not shortable yet but pattern forming as expected...watching it
1051
1497 ES,,,,,,72% short signal rang, scalps sig
1048
bears need to see the MM lower the ask price, or lower the bid, or both....best is if they lower both of course, then if lower ask (means they r shorting), then lower bid (means they are testing retail and daytraders)
1045
3 point pop higher in futures..this is what happens when the MM have a hold up on the bid....only takes a few minutes for it to bounce
1040
for some reason, right now intraday, MM are gently BUYING...i dont think it will last, but it is what it is....until they drop that bid, we wont see an agresswive move lower in spx
it's possible they have the bid up here, in order to "add more shorts" to their positions, that is, hold up markt so they can sell into it, aka distribution
1036
Tuesdays are often "turn days" fwiw, not saying we get one today, but it happens
1020
Important action in VIX for those short SPX:
For the first time since Dec 31, the VIX is "almost ready" to give a VIX sell signal. this suggests the vix and uvxy could creep higher. but the more interesting thing, is this is not as bearish for VIX as it sounds. tho its a sell signal short, it's also the first one in a long time, suggesting that the VIX is deeply oversold. so, this sell signal on vix may result in some sideways movement, maybe a pullback
But more importantly, the VIX has "finally" managed to push itself higher, high enough to get to a swing short signal. This is the first try up, so usually it will stall...but this is potentially very bearish for SPX ...and those short SPX may benefit from this
1011
active traders would have sold the 1160 and bought back the 1153ish quick rejection: usually, it pops over then back under
1008
a minute later, theres the 1160 :)
1007
1149 uvxy hit, see if it does 1160, then 1180 then higher....no reason imo to sell it unless active, because ES looks like its going lower
1004
This chop we are seeing, is characteristic of topping process, tho it can go on awhile,aka, distribution
1002
active traders could prob set a limit for 1160 over the 1150,,,they usually get filled on slight breaks headfakes...active only
1001
UVXY 1150 and 1180 trgts, already hit 1150, may stall on the retest of it, trying to see if can get 1180 or not, poss over 1180
959
if TZA hits 1076 i'd be interested, long tza......Inv Bank buy level, for today only
953
looking for OIL to make a higher hi intaday, then may short the higher hi, possibioity only, not sure atm but watching
932
es had overnite low 1491ish, is one reason why i'm holding the uvxy for a bit...see if es wants to move lower, which should send uvxy higher
930
UVXY has gapped up 2.7% but watching it at the open here, may take profits from yest entry soon
Trades can be viewed at the links below.
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings
For details on the portfolio see this posting:
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
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