Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Wedn thoughts

354
see the EUR/USD and its distance from the 5 period daily mov avg? its too far. correction lower needed.... same pattern we saw on vix when we bought the uvxy...its stretched... lower eur/usd should send spx iwm metalls all lower,swings

also that euro is in a bear wedge

351
Good news for TZA holders: the Investment Banks have raised their buy levels on TZA to 1090...thats good since they r saying they will buy the prior low, instead of their usual tactic of buying BELOW the lows

i know a trip back down to 1090 might be painful, but its still favorable... will see tomorrow if they raise those levels higher or not

327
for some reason, there is some gentle buying here by MM, they could easily drop that bid and let ES down 6 points, but i didnt want to risk it....they win the game if they drop it and i got out for lower profit

326
taking gains on uvxy here, out early

314
oil at 0.6% loss

314
1137, 1147 tza trgts now...moving target changing lol
but tza has done well today hitting its targets and stalling at each one


305
1147 TZA now possible, today..stretch trgt but MM and INV Bank actions suggest it could make it

303
i have not seen a big green candle on uvxy yet today, why i'm holding it still...havent been big red ones either

253
1492 ES trgt if the 1496 breaks

252
MM trying to sell tza up a lil higher at 1132/34 if they can

251
this es 1497 level has been hit a few times now, and theres enough volume this time of day to break it lower, if it does could give nice move lower,,,watching this impt test here now. might make sense to take profit on half tza and keep half, depending on ones hold timeframe. same for es shorts or uvxy gains

for vse port, i'm just waiting it out, since i cant really scale or layer very much in the vse to keep it simple

247
and, theres tza at 1129 trgt, now 1132/34 trgt (that one keeps changing LOL), may stall here and pb a lil, or not

Inv Bank level still higher at 1153ish for swings

236
TZA is testing its high of day,,,trying for that trgt posted this morn

139
oil making a move? watching for followthru on it lower

121
MM are on sidelines in OIL now, with wide spread between bid and ask...could do anything, chop,,,,,still the charts suggest a pb imo

105
1240 UVXY trgt, for now....may exit sooner and re-enter but thats trgt for now, last 1096
have order in place to sell uvxy if it gets there, may change it later

1238
*1138 not 1132

1238
it would be "better" if they rasied the tza bid instead of ask,,,often its just a test of retail, but watching,,at least they r giving room, however the buy remains lower at 1077ish still

1238
 TZA may POP.........1132
not sure, but MM just raisede up sell level from 1115....often it will move on that

1229
 if scalping, could take a 1% quick gain on UVXY mentioned b4,,,1% in 20 minutes....
i'm holding more uvxy tho, for higher

1221
INV Banks have raised their sell levels in TZA to 1150 from 1130ish, good for tza swings

1220
TZA hit 1115 trgt exactly and backed off...again MM were waiting there...manifested in the shoot star tza

1217
nice, another bear shoot star oil 3min chart,,,watching if these things hold

1216
uvxy waking a bit here, if it continues, may see down in es,,,initial only,,,just waking up not awake yet lol

1210
ES shorts, tza longs, uvxy, could work here imo..idea, tza 1110 uvxy 1097

1207
TZA may do 1115 here, then stall

1206
9764 MM sell level oil

1202
but a scalp shorting setting up,,,giving a few min

1202
150175: es may give a mini bounce there,,,MM waiting to buy it

1200
obviously 9735 is targt but i'll watch to see if it can break it lower,,,obnserve reaction if it gets there

1151
9769 CL is where we migth see another one on a lil pop b4 lower

1150
see that lil shoot star on CL 3min? thats because the MM are selling there...often it will go over it higher b4 lower, but they r selling the oil,,,we often see those a fewminute after the MM sell alert fires

1148
: Inv Bank buy level in oil is 9503, but that applies to swings not scalps

1145
this is what ES russel IWM etc need: the Market makers and Inv Banks selling close to curr price...right now, their sell levels on those market are higher up, same as b4, about 1077ish tza

1144
OIL: the Market Makers are selling HERE gently on oil...it can bounce, but that is very bearish...their ask is pennies above curr prices and they are selling it

1142
tza has 2 lower lows on the 3min...if it can move sideways here, a tza long, or es short or similar could work, not trading it, just ideas

1140
72% sell rang on oil, watching to see if it follows thru, at 9721

1129
very similar setup to other day when i bought UVXY at the close, 10.10ish, for same reason (among other factors)

1129
that EUR/USD is now far from the brief-period small 5 moving average...when that happens, a pb usually occurs (for swings, not scalps), esp when its in a wedge like this and an uptrend...its too far, too stretched...of course its MUCH farther from the 20 MA but the 5 MA is key for "strecthed"

if the EUR/USD moves lower, then likely the spx, slv, gold, metals, oil would move lower as well, and DUST would go back up again

1115
in SCO..........i shorted oil because dollar and oil are both at support resist, and oil has shown some weakness earlier today, and i think that it will retestest that weakness, now that it is at 15min resist on oil

1041
ES is now testing the 1499 area mentioned 930ish...watrching reactions here...it looks bad and looks breakable, but MM have NOT yet MADE their commitment to sell it

1037
if oil moves back up, and the sideways, i'll consider shorting it,,,otherwise i'll just pass for now

1030
 careful on the daytrade shoirts, i'm short too, but the MM are gently buying this a little,,,we could see chop...
they are holding a small bid, to try to push higher again if they can, to short it, but they are net accum shorts not longs atm

10121014
UVXY 1130 is trgt 1


if tza can stay over 1108ish on a pb here, the 1129 trgt is achievable

1009
TZA should stall here, some mild MM selling at 1116

1008
tza is at 15min resist now, but at this time in the morn, its breakable on first try, watching, tho stall may come first here at 1115

1005
market maker sell level trg on tza is somewhere near the high of tza on jan 25

1004
EUR/USD is at resist now...watching that to see if resist holds or it breaks higher:  its relationshipt to spx is inverse atm

1003
TZA trying for its target, but not expecting anything fantastic yet, the MM have only lowered the ask and bids a little on the russel....until they lower at least one of the ask/bid, we will get chop

1001
i want to see where UVXY is at, if ES gets to 1499, nothing complicated, simple prior low on ES

951
9820 and 9870 poss areas to short oil CL, i will not take the 9820 short right away but will observe reaction

933
Market Maker buy/sell levels atm for TZA are 1077 and 1129....expect it will try the 1129 but not sure if it will come today,,, of course the MM levels change during the day, will be watching to see if they raise or lower the bids asks in the spx and russel and nasdaw

930
UVXY gapped up a nice 5%

926
i might be exiting the UVXY today that i bought yest...if its fast i'll just type OUT and then explain later LOL


915
UVXY is trading up at the 1092 pivot here pre-market, up from  1045 close yest....lets see what it does


Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 


For details on the portfolio see this posting:

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

No comments:

Post a Comment