353
out of silver,, small profit but not much
311
3min ES bull hammers, intraday value only
301
HPQ might put in a dark cloud cover candlestick today bearish, but support may hold on it here,,,it would need to pierce lower into yesterdays green candle to give a dark cloud
253
slv trgt .54 next but watching if it breaks to a .70 trgt instead,,,a stall would suggest exit at .54ish trgt,watching reactions
251
still see higher bounce intraday on es, not finished yet
228
took half of SLV off 3245,,,to reduce risk
219
added 3225
216
will add SLV 32.24 limit if filled, last 32.3
158
74% scalp buy signal just rang, es 1346
156
ES still looks like it wants to bounce higher here, last 1345,, aggressive could scalp long daytrade
115
LOL mpwr 3min chart actually moving HIGHER thru this nastiness on spx down
108
MPWR is not affected at all by this sell off in spx or aapl,
1258
broken record, i know, but check out daily IYT candle--transports--IYT now at support test,,, a break here could be disastrous, but bounce likely first
1256
DXD short dow---outperforming SDS short spx
1251
ES should bounce now, off 1347,,not trading it long
1251
this is still part of the "down" from prior pattern mentioned, the bounce may be shortablle, ES
1226
slv triggered buyback while typing, at .67,,,,could still see .50 or .40 lower but buy triggered for scalps
1225
active slv scalps that took some off at .77 could buy back soon here, near the .60--.67 area
1222
ES is now forming the pb mentioned b4 for the intraday pattern,,,still not finished, could take awhile
1203
buying the pb long on es could work too, depending on charts at the time
1202
ES pattern suggests wait for move lower on 3 min, then a rally, and then that rally may be shortable scalp,,,could take awhile to bake
1152
SLV 3277 is a trgt area to sell pieces ,,if have large position
1148
SLV,,,may be in and out fast for small amounts, and will keep another piece for higher levels,,,that is i will layer out, since i doubled shares in it
1146
SLV intraday scalp buy now at 76%. last 3272
1127
doubled SLV shares here, same price , for a move to .85--.99
1121
if it gets 3277, slv should give 3285--3300ish pop higher
1118
bte, for silver, this entry is a bit early, if it pulls back i might add more,,,bought 15min chart support but could break to next supp lower on slv...or may add more at higher price if it moves up,,, but 3min chart on SLV was suggesting a poss pop higher now, so took initial entry,,, a short entry may present later today in slv
1114
3285 3300 3318 3340 slv trgts,,,keeping trgt simple, just prior horizontal resist as trgts
1109
went long SLV 32.60, for quick trade, to later short it on reverse
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
Tues thoughts
246
SLV did not hit 3260,,cancelling order to short, for now. may reconsider later.
147
i will short scalp silver via SLV if it hits 32.60, 32.52 last
126
.64 stop spy...hitting .62 but not stopped at .63
117
134.66 stop spy on half,,,again just manually trailing lower
113
stop spy 134.71 on half to protect profits
110
spy may stall or bounce here, tho move down rather heavy
109
5 more poitns lower to es scalp trgt 2,
102
still have half sco, manually trailing the stop to protect profits, not posting all stop updates here ,
1258
then 1335 es trgt lower
1256
1341 interim ES trgt on scalps
1255
134.01 limit cover trgt on SPY, if able
1215
took profit on half of oil shorts, good enough, can always reshort, still have half
1210
if oil moves up now on 3min chart i'll take profit on half, about 1.5%ish,, 3min needs to berak support or form wedge, else will bounce
1155
Here is the expected test on oil 101,,if it breaks, another 50cents to 1dollar lowe4r,, stall likely at support test,,,watching reactions ,,,to see if it makes sense to take some profit or wait
1151
15min ES chart suggests to wait for long entry, until a pb on 3min chart, intraday, imo,,,so tried a short at prior es resist on 60min chart
1149
oil could be in troubel,,,stil short
1145
shorted at 1345 es,,, 2--10 point trgt
1124
oil looks headed to 101 supp test,,if that breaks, it could fall another 50 cents to $1 fast, tho generally expect a stall or bounce at support
1124
MPWR could drop to 1680--1700,,,or go higher to 1757
1122
OIL has dropped back down, ES may follow it
1119
took off MPWR, half, here to lock some profits, for 2.3% profit from this morn,,,still see the higher 10% profit but trading it actively
1059
spx SPY 60min chart is on a "short rallys" setup, for next 4 hours imo
1056
still same es trgt #3==1335
1055
1344 aggress shorts could take 2 points here on half or all, with half better to hold for lower
1053
72%
1053
a test of ES lows likely now, will be watching if it gets the test, if it makes a lower low, and how much lower the lower low is if it gets one
1043
tho the break of 1343 es today may foreshadow an expanded larger range on es today
1040
68% now at 1343
1037
at es 1344,,,ES intraday scalp sell signal now at 61%,,,it needs 72% min, and 78-85% to really move,,,but the 61% is giving warnings, or poss short rally setups
1032
60min HPQ has bear Head SHoulders, from Feb 1
1026
i'm not shorting es here, since have other positions, incl short oil
1026
es 1344 aggress short could work here, would need to be willing to exit at loss and reenter, or scale in wider stops
1023
bounce on the first test of 1343 would be normal, what's impt is how high the bounce is, for bears, imo
1013
oil is now at scalp trgt 1, about 60 cents move lower,,,other lower scalp trgt are lower than here, scaling out gradually, or setting tite stop on a piece here, makes sense,, SCO up 1% in 15 minutes since entry
1008
1343 support has broken es,,,bounces still shortable imo
1005
1343 es test here, or near here soon,,, a bounce may be shortable, if it holds,,,
957
shorted oil resist 101.70, using sco etf
954
in sco 3630 to short oil, may close sco position today
950
still waiting for NSC to rally up a little, to re-short it second time swing short, or maybe CHRW...NSC = play on transports sector
948
second swing trgt MPWR is 10.2%ish profit if hit
945
MPWR long jumped 1.6% in 10 minutes since entry, but holding it longer this time, for swing scalp combo
942
MPWR it has a nice bull flag from Jan 16 that broke higher, after earnings, and pb a little since, for new highs expected after 1870 test
936
bought back MPWR, long swing, that i took profit on yesterday, for higher in coming hours days, sold at 17.50 yest, 16.89 last
930
OIL GOLD SILVER may all offer some nice trading opps, both scalp and swing, in addition to ES TF SPY QQQ etc
926
would set up a 1335 test lower next, if broken
925
over 1343, ES is not v bearish, but a break of 1343 to 1340 would set up bearishness imo
919
Yesterday I mentioned to look for a gap down this morn. ES now down 4 points, But ES futures are now near support, so watching reaction here. 1343 impt support area.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
SLV did not hit 3260,,cancelling order to short, for now. may reconsider later.
147
i will short scalp silver via SLV if it hits 32.60, 32.52 last
126
.64 stop spy...hitting .62 but not stopped at .63
117
134.66 stop spy on half,,,again just manually trailing lower
113
stop spy 134.71 on half to protect profits
110
spy may stall or bounce here, tho move down rather heavy
109
5 more poitns lower to es scalp trgt 2,
102
still have half sco, manually trailing the stop to protect profits, not posting all stop updates here ,
1258
then 1335 es trgt lower
1256
1341 interim ES trgt on scalps
1255
134.01 limit cover trgt on SPY, if able
1215
took profit on half of oil shorts, good enough, can always reshort, still have half
1210
if oil moves up now on 3min chart i'll take profit on half, about 1.5%ish,, 3min needs to berak support or form wedge, else will bounce
1155
Here is the expected test on oil 101,,if it breaks, another 50cents to 1dollar lowe4r,, stall likely at support test,,,watching reactions ,,,to see if it makes sense to take some profit or wait
1151
15min ES chart suggests to wait for long entry, until a pb on 3min chart, intraday, imo,,,so tried a short at prior es resist on 60min chart
1149
oil could be in troubel,,,stil short
1145
shorted at 1345 es,,, 2--10 point trgt
1124
oil looks headed to 101 supp test,,if that breaks, it could fall another 50 cents to $1 fast, tho generally expect a stall or bounce at support
1124
MPWR could drop to 1680--1700,,,or go higher to 1757
1122
OIL has dropped back down, ES may follow it
1119
took off MPWR, half, here to lock some profits, for 2.3% profit from this morn,,,still see the higher 10% profit but trading it actively
1059
spx SPY 60min chart is on a "short rallys" setup, for next 4 hours imo
1056
still same es trgt #3==1335
1055
1344 aggress shorts could take 2 points here on half or all, with half better to hold for lower
1053
72%
1053
a test of ES lows likely now, will be watching if it gets the test, if it makes a lower low, and how much lower the lower low is if it gets one
1043
tho the break of 1343 es today may foreshadow an expanded larger range on es today
1040
68% now at 1343
1037
at es 1344,,,ES intraday scalp sell signal now at 61%,,,it needs 72% min, and 78-85% to really move,,,but the 61% is giving warnings, or poss short rally setups
1032
60min HPQ has bear Head SHoulders, from Feb 1
1026
i'm not shorting es here, since have other positions, incl short oil
1026
es 1344 aggress short could work here, would need to be willing to exit at loss and reenter, or scale in wider stops
1023
bounce on the first test of 1343 would be normal, what's impt is how high the bounce is, for bears, imo
1013
oil is now at scalp trgt 1, about 60 cents move lower,,,other lower scalp trgt are lower than here, scaling out gradually, or setting tite stop on a piece here, makes sense,, SCO up 1% in 15 minutes since entry
1008
1343 support has broken es,,,bounces still shortable imo
1005
1343 es test here, or near here soon,,, a bounce may be shortable, if it holds,,,
957
shorted oil resist 101.70, using sco etf
954
in sco 3630 to short oil, may close sco position today
950
still waiting for NSC to rally up a little, to re-short it second time swing short, or maybe CHRW...NSC = play on transports sector
948
second swing trgt MPWR is 10.2%ish profit if hit
945
MPWR long jumped 1.6% in 10 minutes since entry, but holding it longer this time, for swing scalp combo
942
MPWR it has a nice bull flag from Jan 16 that broke higher, after earnings, and pb a little since, for new highs expected after 1870 test
936
bought back MPWR, long swing, that i took profit on yesterday, for higher in coming hours days, sold at 17.50 yest, 16.89 last
930
OIL GOLD SILVER may all offer some nice trading opps, both scalp and swing, in addition to ES TF SPY QQQ etc
926
would set up a 1335 test lower next, if broken
925
over 1343, ES is not v bearish, but a break of 1343 to 1340 would set up bearishness imo
919
Yesterday I mentioned to look for a gap down this morn. ES now down 4 points, But ES futures are now near support, so watching reaction here. 1343 impt support area.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Monday, February 13, 2012
Monday thoughts
619
tightening stops for ES short scalps, will take profits on scalps from 1348 tonight, with tite stop,,,,keeping the short swings from ES 1352,,, tightened stop on scalp piece to reduce risk, holding only the swing piece,,,swing from 3 days ago, scalp from today,,,,oil was much better intraday trading today than es
324
still on 72% sell es
308
MPWR just dropped, pressured lower by ES, but no-reentry yet on mpwr, prob will not reenter today
305
added second piece of ES short scalp there
305
72% confid ES sell signal, intraday only not swing, at 1349.75
303
being proactive since ES suggesting it may move lower, may pull MPWR down
302
took quick 1%ish profit on MPWR,,will look to reenter later again
146
went LONG in MPWR, swing, at 17.33 17.34
129
PKD still looks like it will make the higher trgt, but elected to just exit it
129
i'm out of PKD for now,,,may enter later,,,it hit the .871 trgt and stalled, no sense letting profit slip by, tho it did not hit its .95 target
118
despite move up, ES still buildking a sell signal intraday
1232
es starting to move lower now,,,watching to see if sustains
1227
SHORTED ES 1346.50, agressive entry short, similar to aggress entry long setup on friday, scalp trgts to start vs swing
1221
its starting to turn from buy to sell,intraday
1220
ES buy signal confid now weaker,,,suggests "do nothing" in ES atm lol,,buy signal gave a measley 2 points, why not worth trading the narrow range, oil has better range
1204
also the US dollar moving higher intraday, and while oil has ignored the dollar quite a bit, wanted to lock the profit here since not a swing
1202
took p[rofits on oil scalp 100.10 from 99.50 entry
may buiy back, may go higher, but 3min warns of pb
1159
heres the expected pullback on TLT<,,may present a long swing opp,,,still no entry imo
1130
100.50 and 101.20 oil next trgts micro, last 100.22,, will take profits on half via pre-existing order if it hits 100.50,,,should stall if it gets there, and stall near here also likely as it tests todays high
1127
oil is moving more than ES,,,since entry Oil moved equiv of about 5-6 ES points, vs 1 point for es since entry
1126
oil scalp up 65 cents ,,,watching the reactions here at 100.15,,still see higher poss intraday
1115
not much room higher on es bounce tho, better to trade oils wider range for day/ scalps imo,,or silver
1113
ES is still on its bounce alert from earlier, alert not expired, intraday
1112
TLT should pull back intraday, may give a long opp entry
1110
PKD pulled back and hit 6.81 trgt, llooking for 695-6.99 next still
1041
HPQ short swing starting to kick in now, testing friday low, hpq down almost 1% vs es up almost 1%
1027
ES bounce signal 72% confid, intraday, at 1345
1017
long on the 99.50 oil futures test
1017
went long oil here using USO, alt is uco 2x but uso has higher volume so using 2x shares in it,,, oil trade i do not plan to hold for that long
1009
PKD looks like it wants to break 6.81 higher for 6.95--6.99 trgts, last 6.78
959
PKD long up 2% from friday close, if it can get 6.81 then next trgt 6.99
957
TLT...the first pb here "should bounce, ".....as the 15 and 60 min charts are aligned..no entry yet
956
TLT quicker trade: waiting awhile for the 15min chart candles to settle down, get smaller, then may go long, with a quick exit, until TLT decides if it wants higher or lower on the daily\\
954
llooking to short next rally in euro, or long EUO on next pb, waiting
950
looking for a spot to re-short NSC again, waiting on it awhile for now
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
tightening stops for ES short scalps, will take profits on scalps from 1348 tonight, with tite stop,,,,keeping the short swings from ES 1352,,, tightened stop on scalp piece to reduce risk, holding only the swing piece,,,swing from 3 days ago, scalp from today,,,,oil was much better intraday trading today than es
324
still on 72% sell es
308
MPWR just dropped, pressured lower by ES, but no-reentry yet on mpwr, prob will not reenter today
305
added second piece of ES short scalp there
305
72% confid ES sell signal, intraday only not swing, at 1349.75
303
being proactive since ES suggesting it may move lower, may pull MPWR down
302
took quick 1%ish profit on MPWR,,will look to reenter later again
146
went LONG in MPWR, swing, at 17.33 17.34
129
PKD still looks like it will make the higher trgt, but elected to just exit it
129
i'm out of PKD for now,,,may enter later,,,it hit the .871 trgt and stalled, no sense letting profit slip by, tho it did not hit its .95 target
118
despite move up, ES still buildking a sell signal intraday
1232
es starting to move lower now,,,watching to see if sustains
1227
SHORTED ES 1346.50, agressive entry short, similar to aggress entry long setup on friday, scalp trgts to start vs swing
1221
its starting to turn from buy to sell,intraday
1220
ES buy signal confid now weaker,,,suggests "do nothing" in ES atm lol,,buy signal gave a measley 2 points, why not worth trading the narrow range, oil has better range
1204
also the US dollar moving higher intraday, and while oil has ignored the dollar quite a bit, wanted to lock the profit here since not a swing
1202
took p[rofits on oil scalp 100.10 from 99.50 entry
may buiy back, may go higher, but 3min warns of pb
1159
heres the expected pullback on TLT<,,may present a long swing opp,,,still no entry imo
1130
100.50 and 101.20 oil next trgts micro, last 100.22,, will take profits on half via pre-existing order if it hits 100.50,,,should stall if it gets there, and stall near here also likely as it tests todays high
1127
oil is moving more than ES,,,since entry Oil moved equiv of about 5-6 ES points, vs 1 point for es since entry
1126
oil scalp up 65 cents ,,,watching the reactions here at 100.15,,still see higher poss intraday
1115
not much room higher on es bounce tho, better to trade oils wider range for day/ scalps imo,,or silver
1113
ES is still on its bounce alert from earlier, alert not expired, intraday
1112
TLT should pull back intraday, may give a long opp entry
1110
PKD pulled back and hit 6.81 trgt, llooking for 695-6.99 next still
1041
HPQ short swing starting to kick in now, testing friday low, hpq down almost 1% vs es up almost 1%
1027
ES bounce signal 72% confid, intraday, at 1345
1017
long on the 99.50 oil futures test
1017
went long oil here using USO, alt is uco 2x but uso has higher volume so using 2x shares in it,,, oil trade i do not plan to hold for that long
1009
PKD looks like it wants to break 6.81 higher for 6.95--6.99 trgts, last 6.78
959
PKD long up 2% from friday close, if it can get 6.81 then next trgt 6.99
957
TLT...the first pb here "should bounce, ".....as the 15 and 60 min charts are aligned..no entry yet
956
TLT quicker trade: waiting awhile for the 15min chart candles to settle down, get smaller, then may go long, with a quick exit, until TLT decides if it wants higher or lower on the daily\\
954
llooking to short next rally in euro, or long EUO on next pb, waiting
950
looking for a spot to re-short NSC again, waiting on it awhile for now
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Friday, February 10, 2012
Friday thoughts
405
i took loss on last TLT TMF today on its move higher for "less painful" loss,,,,not sure of what TLT does now, so will watch and look for re-entry in TLT long or short later
400
but exited 1 min early,,,scalp only from 5267,,,es 1334 in 1340 out
359
out 5290 on second half sso
355
llooking 5304 to fill 5300
353
sso 5300 trgt
352
out of TLT TMF with a loss,,will explain later why
345
filled. took profit on half
344
half off sso 5284 if filled
333
apl survived the stop and popped up on 3min chart
330
mental stop .74,,,not hard,,will see reaction if hit
322
5285 sso resist
321
53.22 trgt if able sso....may not make it
313
took profit on NSC 7142,,,will look to reenter short later
306
5266 sso,,v agress trade, taking it long
303
possibility only, no setup yet
302
LONG on ES could work into the close or 415 hour for agressive brave, setting up , scalp only not swing, setup not triggered
256
still in the NSC short,,,tite stop not hit yet...try to ride lower
254
actually i think its more dangerous for the bulls: if we do not sell hard into the close today, but rather have a spin top candle like we have now, on spy
252
1335 and 1339 rnage now on ES, not myuch happening unless one breaks
249
7151 last
249
stop 7156 on NSC scalp short from this morn at 71.96
hmm sell signal now 67%,,,may bounce ES
237
out at 19.26===;last 1930 tvix
233
1912 stop tvix now v tite
232
1912 micro tvix, looks lower then maybe buyable again
226
1-6minutes: es setup to test 1334 triggered, watching if it works or not
224
APL is about 20 cents from stopping me out, for a LOSS if stopped
217
7095 trgt below the 7105 low on NSC, if high vol hits can get a lil extra,,,
215
trying to see if NSC tests its low of day, if so would give $1 move on the short from this morn
210
it is NOT unusual to see no panic on a bear EVE star reversal on dailyk,,,if thats what we get today,, panic sets in when it closes under the low of the 3 day star pattern
208
pattern setting up for poss ES 1334 test lower, but not finished baking yet
138
this is the "down" i mentioned b4 re: selll signal, bounce then lower is normal pattern
130
still on 74% es sell signal,,,it can take awhile when triggered at noontime,, ES at same price now as when it rang
127
one intersting thing, is that qqq down 0.60% even with appl higher, many of the ndx r tired here even with appl higher
1258
ES is up 2 points,,,sell signal still the same on it
1257
poss bear HS also on PKD, so being cautious....BUT these low priced stocks often do not adhere to pattern expectations, so trying the long,for now
1257
PKD i'll trade in and out of,,,,if that is NOT a bear flag daily the i see 7.50 and 9.00
1255
PKD 6.90 first trgt
1254
bought PKD , LONG, swing, at 6.70,,also from focus list last 5 days
1249
REN poss multimonth bear flag daily
1238
ES is at 60min downtrendlin resist now,,trendline could be higher depending on how u draw it
1235
DragonTrader maybe,,,still on the 74% sell, needs 78 then 85% to really move
1232
74% confid sell signal rang on NSC
1225
scalps, this intraday es pattern, usually lower, bounce, then down harder after bounce, if it plays out the pattern
1223
74% sell on es now, tho price has not moved since 72%, signal went up just a bit
1220
7200---7220 resist area on NSC
1219
HPQ 2640 next mini trgt on break of this supp, then 2820,,,under 2800 HPQ may be in real trouble
1215
ES--- 72% confid sell signal just rang, at 1338
1212
hpq weak, but hpq is at support ,testing it, so could bounce,,,but break lower likely since it has not moved up with ES intraday
1209
i might get stopped out of APL not aapl, for a loss today,,,not changing the stop, can always buy it again if stopped out long
1205
looking ok so far nsc,,,the 3min has turned lower, ahead of ES, obviously for swings/position holds the 3min is irrelev, but also trading it intraday
1204
btw, unlike some other stocks that are more volatile than spx spy (higher betas),, NSC trades with about the same volatility as SPY, so more shares needed to get 3x-etf like performance,, however when moving down, NSC could have a temp higher beta
1201
yea its always tricky---i'm trying the short with the belief that if UNP falls, or IYT, then NSC will get hit harder
1157
shorted NSC at 71.97, to both scalp and hold as position,,, filled at .97 and .96
1134
fwiw, NSC and KSU look like they might be good shorts,swing, in transport sector
1122
looking for another component to short,,,the previous CHRW shotr i closed a few days ago was a compon, one reason shorted it,,,looking for poss new entries short in transport area
1103
daily HPQ has a bear harami pattern from yest, a close today under yest low would confirm and be bearish for hpq
1059
IWM russell has an island top, or close to one, with a close under 8175 today
1059
QQQ also has the poss bear EVE star, if it closes under the gap, and the QQQ pattern is more "textbook" since yesterdays gap is easier seen than SPY
1055
And... if SPY should happen to get another gap down, under 133.51, then it would have a 6 day island top pattern
1050
then, that pattern would be confirmed stronger if SPY closes tomorrow or next 1-3 days, BELOW today's low
1049
Yesterday I mentioned a possible bear EVE star was forming on SPY, that a gap down would be needed to finish the pattern. If we get small or medium candle today, that closes below yest close, then SPY will have the pattern. A larger red candle would be more bearish, but a smaller spinning top is all that's needed to meet the pattern definition. The pattern is not "texbook" because textbook would show a larger gap UP on yesterdays candle, but it still meets the criteria imo. Also, the single candle from yest is a bear dragonfly (one day pattern) vs the additional 3 day morn star pattern.
941
still holding hpq shorts, lower 1.25% today vs yest close
936
The LINE short has gapped down nicely this morning, below the daily lows (prior support) from 1/13 and 2/9....still holding LINE short for same trgts posted yest
841
Took profits pre market on OIL GOLD since I'll be out this morning.
805
OIL is down nicely this morning. The oil shorts via SCO entered yesterday should give a 3-4% profit.
GOLD also is down nicely. Shorts entered 2 days ago DZZ It too should give about a 3-4% profit.
AAPL position hold short is underwater atm, but holding this multi-week multi-month short.
TMF is underwater also but i still see higher TLT and TMF. TMF is up about 2% from yesterday, tho, where it may have put in a short term low with its bull hammer candle.
So although form time to time we must take losses, in the long run as long as profits exceed losses, a trader is doing well. The diversification among several positions, instead of just one position, serves as a risk management money tool. Diversification is also a psychological aid, because the trader knows that although some positions are underwater, other positions are showing profits, and this prevents panic or sleepless nights.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
i took loss on last TLT TMF today on its move higher for "less painful" loss,,,,not sure of what TLT does now, so will watch and look for re-entry in TLT long or short later
400
but exited 1 min early,,,scalp only from 5267,,,es 1334 in 1340 out
359
out 5290 on second half sso
355
llooking 5304 to fill 5300
353
sso 5300 trgt
352
out of TLT TMF with a loss,,will explain later why
345
filled. took profit on half
344
half off sso 5284 if filled
333
apl survived the stop and popped up on 3min chart
330
mental stop .74,,,not hard,,will see reaction if hit
322
5285 sso resist
321
53.22 trgt if able sso....may not make it
313
took profit on NSC 7142,,,will look to reenter short later
306
5266 sso,,v agress trade, taking it long
303
possibility only, no setup yet
302
LONG on ES could work into the close or 415 hour for agressive brave, setting up , scalp only not swing, setup not triggered
256
still in the NSC short,,,tite stop not hit yet...try to ride lower
254
actually i think its more dangerous for the bulls: if we do not sell hard into the close today, but rather have a spin top candle like we have now, on spy
252
1335 and 1339 rnage now on ES, not myuch happening unless one breaks
249
7151 last
249
stop 7156 on NSC scalp short from this morn at 71.96
hmm sell signal now 67%,,,may bounce ES
237
out at 19.26===;last 1930 tvix
233
1912 stop tvix now v tite
232
1912 micro tvix, looks lower then maybe buyable again
226
1-6minutes: es setup to test 1334 triggered, watching if it works or not
224
APL is about 20 cents from stopping me out, for a LOSS if stopped
217
7095 trgt below the 7105 low on NSC, if high vol hits can get a lil extra,,,
215
trying to see if NSC tests its low of day, if so would give $1 move on the short from this morn
210
it is NOT unusual to see no panic on a bear EVE star reversal on dailyk,,,if thats what we get today,, panic sets in when it closes under the low of the 3 day star pattern
208
pattern setting up for poss ES 1334 test lower, but not finished baking yet
138
this is the "down" i mentioned b4 re: selll signal, bounce then lower is normal pattern
130
still on 74% es sell signal,,,it can take awhile when triggered at noontime,, ES at same price now as when it rang
127
one intersting thing, is that qqq down 0.60% even with appl higher, many of the ndx r tired here even with appl higher
1258
ES is up 2 points,,,sell signal still the same on it
1257
poss bear HS also on PKD, so being cautious....BUT these low priced stocks often do not adhere to pattern expectations, so trying the long,for now
1257
PKD i'll trade in and out of,,,,if that is NOT a bear flag daily the i see 7.50 and 9.00
1255
PKD 6.90 first trgt
1254
bought PKD , LONG, swing, at 6.70,,also from focus list last 5 days
1249
REN poss multimonth bear flag daily
1238
ES is at 60min downtrendlin resist now,,trendline could be higher depending on how u draw it
1235
DragonTrader maybe,,,still on the 74% sell, needs 78 then 85% to really move
1232
74% confid sell signal rang on NSC
1225
scalps, this intraday es pattern, usually lower, bounce, then down harder after bounce, if it plays out the pattern
1223
74% sell on es now, tho price has not moved since 72%, signal went up just a bit
1220
7200---7220 resist area on NSC
1219
HPQ 2640 next mini trgt on break of this supp, then 2820,,,under 2800 HPQ may be in real trouble
1215
ES--- 72% confid sell signal just rang, at 1338
1212
hpq weak, but hpq is at support ,testing it, so could bounce,,,but break lower likely since it has not moved up with ES intraday
1209
i might get stopped out of APL not aapl, for a loss today,,,not changing the stop, can always buy it again if stopped out long
1205
looking ok so far nsc,,,the 3min has turned lower, ahead of ES, obviously for swings/position holds the 3min is irrelev, but also trading it intraday
1204
btw, unlike some other stocks that are more volatile than spx spy (higher betas),, NSC trades with about the same volatility as SPY, so more shares needed to get 3x-etf like performance,, however when moving down, NSC could have a temp higher beta
1201
yea its always tricky---i'm trying the short with the belief that if UNP falls, or IYT, then NSC will get hit harder
1157
shorted NSC at 71.97, to both scalp and hold as position,,, filled at .97 and .96
1134
fwiw, NSC and KSU look like they might be good shorts,swing, in transport sector
1122
looking for another component to short,,,the previous CHRW shotr i closed a few days ago was a compon, one reason shorted it,,,looking for poss new entries short in transport area
1103
daily HPQ has a bear harami pattern from yest, a close today under yest low would confirm and be bearish for hpq
1059
IWM russell has an island top, or close to one, with a close under 8175 today
1059
QQQ also has the poss bear EVE star, if it closes under the gap, and the QQQ pattern is more "textbook" since yesterdays gap is easier seen than SPY
1055
And... if SPY should happen to get another gap down, under 133.51, then it would have a 6 day island top pattern
1050
then, that pattern would be confirmed stronger if SPY closes tomorrow or next 1-3 days, BELOW today's low
1049
Yesterday I mentioned a possible bear EVE star was forming on SPY, that a gap down would be needed to finish the pattern. If we get small or medium candle today, that closes below yest close, then SPY will have the pattern. A larger red candle would be more bearish, but a smaller spinning top is all that's needed to meet the pattern definition. The pattern is not "texbook" because textbook would show a larger gap UP on yesterdays candle, but it still meets the criteria imo. Also, the single candle from yest is a bear dragonfly (one day pattern) vs the additional 3 day morn star pattern.
941
still holding hpq shorts, lower 1.25% today vs yest close
936
The LINE short has gapped down nicely this morning, below the daily lows (prior support) from 1/13 and 2/9....still holding LINE short for same trgts posted yest
841
Took profits pre market on OIL GOLD since I'll be out this morning.
805
OIL is down nicely this morning. The oil shorts via SCO entered yesterday should give a 3-4% profit.
GOLD also is down nicely. Shorts entered 2 days ago DZZ It too should give about a 3-4% profit.
AAPL position hold short is underwater atm, but holding this multi-week multi-month short.
TMF is underwater also but i still see higher TLT and TMF. TMF is up about 2% from yesterday, tho, where it may have put in a short term low with its bull hammer candle.
So although form time to time we must take losses, in the long run as long as profits exceed losses, a trader is doing well. The diversification among several positions, instead of just one position, serves as a risk management money tool. Diversification is also a psychological aid, because the trader knows that although some positions are underwater, other positions are showing profits, and this prevents panic or sleepless nights.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Thursday, February 9, 2012
Thurs thoughts
345
3812 fiurst sco trgta
333
i'll take profits on gold shorts entered yest, b4 the close today,
324
EUO may form a bull morning star tomorrow if it gaps up, today is day 2 of the possible pattern formation, for higher EUO lower euro
232
if LINE breaks 3580 and then 3500ish, it could really fall hard (position trade, not today) to 33 or 31
212
gold may try to break 1726 support for 1715
154
trying 3763 SCO, to short oil, may take profits today on it
1220
LINE: expecting daily prior support to break, and move 4-5 % lower for additional profit if it breaks, swing
1219
LINE shorts are now at target one lower, taking pforits on half and keeping half makes sense
939
es hit over 1352, shorted ES 1352 per yesterday's post of that short level
i'll be back around 1pm
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
3812 fiurst sco trgta
333
i'll take profits on gold shorts entered yest, b4 the close today,
324
EUO may form a bull morning star tomorrow if it gaps up, today is day 2 of the possible pattern formation, for higher EUO lower euro
232
if LINE breaks 3580 and then 3500ish, it could really fall hard (position trade, not today) to 33 or 31
212
gold may try to break 1726 support for 1715
154
trying 3763 SCO, to short oil, may take profits today on it
1220
LINE: expecting daily prior support to break, and move 4-5 % lower for additional profit if it breaks, swing
1219
LINE shorts are now at target one lower, taking pforits on half and keeping half makes sense
939
es hit over 1352, shorted ES 1352 per yesterday's post of that short level
i'll be back around 1pm
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Wednesday, February 8, 2012
Wede thoughts
421
LINE swing short continues to look bearish
357
DZZ at 4.26 to short gold, or GLD could be used to short it, swing
340
out xiv 933, not moving
307
933 XIV
306
tvix sell warn at 1468
303
1344 es test should hold first try, poss short bnc entry
257
dont like that test on tvix of supp at 1455 at this time of day, too risky imo,,on sidelines for now,,, used bounce to get out
256
im out of tvix 1475 here, for now, from 1470 entry,, will reeval later
253
or if es hits 1344, will prob short bnc off of it,,, if it were 11am--1pm i wouldve shorted the test 134, but this time of day, could go crazy so waiting
251
will short es 1352 if it hits there in 30 min
236
*1440ish, we wish 1540 :)
236
tvix has volume on its upside today, looking at intraday 15min charts, with supp 1540ish volume
227
there goes my short, on ES scalp, stopped out of second half for measely 1 point, and 6 points profit on first half
225
over 1512 tvix gives 1570 trgt
210
117.20 next TLT trgt
208
TLT on the move higher at its critical 2pm--3pm period,,watching reactions
203
a red candle on HPQ 60min chart would end that "wait 4 hours to short hpq" from late yesterday
159
74% confid intraday buy signal on tvix just rang
156
i have sell stop 1570 tvix if it gets there, to take profit on half if trgt hit
150
usually the oil trades in SCO and UCO give about 15% profit trgts, but having to weave in and out faster since Jan 1 on them
136
i believe that oil will break the 95 support, eventually
136
QuickSwing indicator for silver is "short for 2 days",,,but it rang at a higher level,,may short it on a 15min bounce
133
14.70 tvix now looks nice for early entry,,,,,,,half size, to give ebough for combo scalp swing
124
1344 es was rejected, as expected
1233
looks like the headfake break over 1342, also the bear stoch dbl top near confirmation soon
1226
poss bear stochastic dbl toip on 3min es here, needs to move lower to confirm it
1225
also EUO trying to put in a higher low on 15min chart
1224
3min looking a bit tired, so giving a lil room to breathe
1224
hard stop set 1345.25 to prevent loss from 1346 entry
1223
waiting on cover here,,,1342.25 not hard stop
1218
if 1342 breaks, could pop to 1344 and 1344 may get a fast rejection lower
1217
looks like 1340 es could break,,,tricky here at 1340/42
1204
watching the 1342.25 area for poss exit on the shorts from 1346 second half,,,1342 held so far
1157
below 1340 would give another short setup, for next 9 mis only
1155
1340.50 minor 3min es resist broke, but can it get over 1342.24?
1153
could be headfake probes higher,watching
1152
they r probing now, tryiong to trigger stops,,,iof enough get triggered will get over 1342
1150
1342.25 stop for es shorts scalps makes sense now, from 1346, could always reenter
1146
under 1337 es, could give 1325 es, today
1143
right now rsi is bleow it,,,but that would give a bull rsi failure swing if it went above
1142
3min rsi over 36 may suggest taking profits on shorts and look for reentry,,for scalps, if gets ther, on 3min chart
1136
1343 mental stop, hard stop higher
1135
> should se 12337 es now
1135
no volume diverg suggests sellers not tired yet, not done selling
1134
no bullish vol diverg yet on 3min es,,,suggests lower es and short its rallies intraday
1131
added back in at 1340 es shorts, all other orders canclld
1129
if 1342 comes b4 133850, i'll reshort the half i covered at 1340
1127
APL stop 3540, if stopped it will be loss not profit, on the second APL entry,,last 3646
1126
1338.50, adding ES more shorts if hit1338.50, adding ES more shorts, instead of 1337
1122
TLT just hit 11680 trgt from yest,,,, the 15min Bull W has now formed,,,wathcing next for 60 min W,,,could stall here
1120
taking 6 point small profit on half es shorts
1119
watching 1337 es....v impt imo, intraday and also swings
1118
oil short will prob give an exit to take profit and then re-enter bounce,,,then the BIG move lower for swing, imo
1116
notice all the topping tails on the daily CL oil futures candles
1108
1339 ES "should" move confid from 76 to 78%
1106
if es gets under 1337---could really sell off imo
1105
broken trgtr...watchinhg for sustain under 1343 now
1104
another ES rejection below 1346 on the 3min charts
1059
a bounce that didnt make 1346---v v bearish imo intraday,,,under 1346 es v bearish imo
1058
76%confid sell es
1056
i still thinkTLT will form 2 bull W's : first on the 15min chart, then a bigger one on 60min chart, for swings,,, 116.85 tlt would give the first W on 15min chart
1055
ES getting rejected under that 1346, for now,,,watching those 2 pivots 1343 1346
1052
i "think" an ES bnc to 1346 and turn lower, or fail to get 1346 on bnce, will put es confid at 78% sell, unsure tho
1048
the oil freight train is much stronger than spx freight train,,,,move away from it, or ride it
1047
still holding the newly entered oil shorts swing from yest,,,it could really start moving now
1044
a 1345-46 bounce in next 12 mins would be shortable imo, if it gets one,,could break the 1343 instead
1042
74% confid sell signal, 1343 breakable needs 78%, but getting higher
1040
BELOW the mkt, 1337, i'll add ES shorts, from existing 13436 shorts
1039
over 116.70.,,,TLT TMF could soar higher intraday, also ZN ZB futures
1037
and 50%ish "feeling" that it could break on first try without much bounce,,,feeling only,
1036
watching 1343 ES, bears must break it, bulls must hold, bias down after stall on 1343
1029
72% confid sell signal on ES, up from 70%
1027
70% confid es sell signal, intraday
1009
SLV approaching a resist test here,,,may be shortable again, but waiting for entry
957
hpq scalp trgt a little less than 1% move
954
hpq 2917 scalps or day could work here,,hpq could still make a minor higher hi over 2925 to 2935--48ish, but entry here could work too
948
1346 short scalp es
946
hpq remains inside yesterdays 2pm "wait 4 more hours" to short setup, may get a swing short setup on it today as it develops, tho i'm already short hpq from earlier ao qont add more
940
apl hit trgt while typig,,,3740 next trg
939
3727 APL trgt, then stall ,,,will watch reation at .27 if gets there
938
APL up higher at the open as expected,,,letting it run for awhile,,,might still take profit this morn,unsure
930
long TLT or TMF scalps / day could work well today, at the open, or ZB ZN futures
929
if HPQ tests 2879 lower,,it will prob break and continue lower after poss stall,,but at the open can blow right thru that support if tested
923
i will be watching APL closely at the open, and may take profits on it, then try to re-enter. i think APL will gap up this morn.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
LINE swing short continues to look bearish
357
DZZ at 4.26 to short gold, or GLD could be used to short it, swing
340
out xiv 933, not moving
307
933 XIV
306
tvix sell warn at 1468
303
1344 es test should hold first try, poss short bnc entry
257
dont like that test on tvix of supp at 1455 at this time of day, too risky imo,,on sidelines for now,,, used bounce to get out
256
im out of tvix 1475 here, for now, from 1470 entry,, will reeval later
253
or if es hits 1344, will prob short bnc off of it,,, if it were 11am--1pm i wouldve shorted the test 134, but this time of day, could go crazy so waiting
251
will short es 1352 if it hits there in 30 min
236
*1440ish, we wish 1540 :)
236
tvix has volume on its upside today, looking at intraday 15min charts, with supp 1540ish volume
227
there goes my short, on ES scalp, stopped out of second half for measely 1 point, and 6 points profit on first half
225
over 1512 tvix gives 1570 trgt
210
117.20 next TLT trgt
208
TLT on the move higher at its critical 2pm--3pm period,,watching reactions
203
a red candle on HPQ 60min chart would end that "wait 4 hours to short hpq" from late yesterday
159
74% confid intraday buy signal on tvix just rang
156
i have sell stop 1570 tvix if it gets there, to take profit on half if trgt hit
150
usually the oil trades in SCO and UCO give about 15% profit trgts, but having to weave in and out faster since Jan 1 on them
136
i believe that oil will break the 95 support, eventually
136
QuickSwing indicator for silver is "short for 2 days",,,but it rang at a higher level,,may short it on a 15min bounce
133
14.70 tvix now looks nice for early entry,,,,,,,half size, to give ebough for combo scalp swing
124
1344 es was rejected, as expected
1233
looks like the headfake break over 1342, also the bear stoch dbl top near confirmation soon
1226
poss bear stochastic dbl toip on 3min es here, needs to move lower to confirm it
1225
also EUO trying to put in a higher low on 15min chart
1224
3min looking a bit tired, so giving a lil room to breathe
1224
hard stop set 1345.25 to prevent loss from 1346 entry
1223
waiting on cover here,,,1342.25 not hard stop
1218
if 1342 breaks, could pop to 1344 and 1344 may get a fast rejection lower
1217
looks like 1340 es could break,,,tricky here at 1340/42
1204
watching the 1342.25 area for poss exit on the shorts from 1346 second half,,,1342 held so far
1157
below 1340 would give another short setup, for next 9 mis only
1155
1340.50 minor 3min es resist broke, but can it get over 1342.24?
1153
could be headfake probes higher,watching
1152
they r probing now, tryiong to trigger stops,,,iof enough get triggered will get over 1342
1150
1342.25 stop for es shorts scalps makes sense now, from 1346, could always reenter
1146
under 1337 es, could give 1325 es, today
1143
right now rsi is bleow it,,,but that would give a bull rsi failure swing if it went above
1142
3min rsi over 36 may suggest taking profits on shorts and look for reentry,,for scalps, if gets ther, on 3min chart
1136
1343 mental stop, hard stop higher
1135
> should se 12337 es now
1135
no volume diverg suggests sellers not tired yet, not done selling
1134
no bullish vol diverg yet on 3min es,,,suggests lower es and short its rallies intraday
1131
added back in at 1340 es shorts, all other orders canclld
1129
if 1342 comes b4 133850, i'll reshort the half i covered at 1340
1127
APL stop 3540, if stopped it will be loss not profit, on the second APL entry,,last 3646
1126
1338.50, adding ES more shorts if hit1338.50, adding ES more shorts, instead of 1337
1122
TLT just hit 11680 trgt from yest,,,, the 15min Bull W has now formed,,,wathcing next for 60 min W,,,could stall here
1120
taking 6 point small profit on half es shorts
1119
watching 1337 es....v impt imo, intraday and also swings
1118
oil short will prob give an exit to take profit and then re-enter bounce,,,then the BIG move lower for swing, imo
1116
notice all the topping tails on the daily CL oil futures candles
1108
1339 ES "should" move confid from 76 to 78%
1106
if es gets under 1337---could really sell off imo
1105
broken trgtr...watchinhg for sustain under 1343 now
1104
another ES rejection below 1346 on the 3min charts
1059
a bounce that didnt make 1346---v v bearish imo intraday,,,under 1346 es v bearish imo
1058
76%confid sell es
1056
i still thinkTLT will form 2 bull W's : first on the 15min chart, then a bigger one on 60min chart, for swings,,, 116.85 tlt would give the first W on 15min chart
1055
ES getting rejected under that 1346, for now,,,watching those 2 pivots 1343 1346
1052
i "think" an ES bnc to 1346 and turn lower, or fail to get 1346 on bnce, will put es confid at 78% sell, unsure tho
1048
the oil freight train is much stronger than spx freight train,,,,move away from it, or ride it
1047
still holding the newly entered oil shorts swing from yest,,,it could really start moving now
1044
a 1345-46 bounce in next 12 mins would be shortable imo, if it gets one,,could break the 1343 instead
1042
74% confid sell signal, 1343 breakable needs 78%, but getting higher
1040
BELOW the mkt, 1337, i'll add ES shorts, from existing 13436 shorts
1039
over 116.70.,,,TLT TMF could soar higher intraday, also ZN ZB futures
1037
and 50%ish "feeling" that it could break on first try without much bounce,,,feeling only,
1036
watching 1343 ES, bears must break it, bulls must hold, bias down after stall on 1343
1029
72% confid sell signal on ES, up from 70%
1027
70% confid es sell signal, intraday
1009
SLV approaching a resist test here,,,may be shortable again, but waiting for entry
957
hpq scalp trgt a little less than 1% move
954
hpq 2917 scalps or day could work here,,hpq could still make a minor higher hi over 2925 to 2935--48ish, but entry here could work too
948
1346 short scalp es
946
hpq remains inside yesterdays 2pm "wait 4 more hours" to short setup, may get a swing short setup on it today as it develops, tho i'm already short hpq from earlier ao qont add more
940
apl hit trgt while typig,,,3740 next trg
939
3727 APL trgt, then stall ,,,will watch reation at .27 if gets there
938
APL up higher at the open as expected,,,letting it run for awhile,,,might still take profit this morn,unsure
930
long TLT or TMF scalps / day could work well today, at the open, or ZB ZN futures
929
if HPQ tests 2879 lower,,it will prob break and continue lower after poss stall,,but at the open can blow right thru that support if tested
923
i will be watching APL closely at the open, and may take profits on it, then try to re-enter. i think APL will gap up this morn.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
Tues thoughts
350
i see lower spx,,,but i think APL long will be ok, so holding it,,,i dont think VOG can hold up, so exited that one b4 optimal target hit,earlier today
336
oil might try 101 first b4 lower tho
335
imo,,short oil swings better than short spx
334
*9874
333
shorted oil here at 99.74 for swing,,,might even take off half b4 the close if it moves down, else swing trade
258
1:33pm signal still valid,,,that ES "might have" finished its up move, and begin sideways then decline,
246
REN re-shortable here imo 1166--1179 range
240
tomorrow may present SLV short, zsl,
233
inmpot support test now imo on hpq,,,breaking this and down to .40 trgt micro
227
that TLT 60min chart that looks "so bad".... watch for a BULL W to form on it
140
ES should pullback between now and the close 415 ,,,last 1343
137
APL moving up nicely since the trigger hit
133
ES "might have" finished its up move, and begin sideways then decline, in next 2 hours,,,tho the signals are premature, warnings are there,,, but this is the first "might have" signal i've had for some time now
121
i'm OUT of VOG for now
4% profit,,,did not achieve the 7% and 15% targets on VOG,,,may reenter later
118
APL hit its .64 buy trigger higher,,,watching for reaction and followthru now
109
TLT falling but a bull diverg forming on its 60min chart
106
APL buy stop 3664 above the mkt could work long,into close or swing
104
HPQ 2935, ABOVE its last high, short could work if it gets up there, before 230pm
1257
VOG popped up 1% since the "intraday buy signal",,,still see .97 trgt
1253
starting to get those smaller 15min bear candles on HPQ,,,not done yet
1244
BAL cotton may be giving a "buy back again after taking profits" for swing long cotton, maybe in next 10--120 minutes
1242
hmm,,, my charts say UCO low was 4023,,,but my stop at 4021 was hit,,,so bad data---or "something" else happened,,and filled at 4024,,oh well
1233
VOG trgts: 290,,,297,,,307,,,324
1232
over 285 implies 297 imo on VOG, good for next hour intraday
1231
vog just triggered a 77% confid to break 2.90 higher,,,,,,,not suggesting to buy it here, but could pop to its next trgt
1229
either it holds here to move higher, or im out of oil for awhile
1229
raised stop on UCO oil long now to 4021---tricky here so tightened stop
1214
3987 stop on remaining half of UCO oil long 2x,,,,last 40.50,,riding it up but need a stop in place now that the 99 futures trgt was hit,,,oil moves fast hence the stop
1207
an agressive, early oil swing short might present today
1206
oil outlook short term: a pullback to a higher low, then long on the higher low,,,,then a swing SHORT on the bounce while exiting the long. SHORT may present in 1-2 days, depending on action of 60min charts
1143
watching 9770 oil if it drops near there, last 9832
1142
after it calms down, another reentry long oil may present
1142
OIL just hit its 99 trgt from yest post,,, for 2% profit oil or 4% sco quickTrade,, i posted to have a lim order at 99 because if it got there fast it might pb
1136
if HPQ 15min chart starts to put in smaller candles, sideways, may present a short opp
1132
283--286 vog could work if it gets there in next hour,,for new entries, i'm holding from 280 still half after taking half off for 3% yest
1131
APL over 3850 would give 4070 trgt,,,but longert term i think it can go higher,,,think it can do a move like ROC did
1128
TLT...15min bull harami
1057
VOG new entries might be better to let the 15min charts base for awhile, then enter lower or above mkt
1054
my APL hard stop is at 35.40,,mental stop is higher than that and may exit early b4 stopped out, but hard stop in place in case of sudden downturn, computer problems, or if i forget about the position for a day''
1052
there's a Downtrendline on HPQ 15min near this area
1039
2885 hpq may be tough to crack higher
1034
TBT puts, FEB 19 at .33 and Mar 19 at .74, could work nicely (if TLT moves up, tbt goes down 2x)
1019
tlt tmf buy signal intraday at 74% here, 116.48 tlt
1016
sell signal on es, 70% confid here at 1335.50,intraday
1008
133.44 spy test is trgt,,,and see if that holds or breaks,,stall likely if it gets there
1006
SPY chart is diff than ES...notice SPY has begun to fill gap and broken all its supporta above it,,,,133.76 spy supp
1005
1336/34.50 es trgt 1 is 1330 to cover half there, hold half
1003
aapl shorts are underwater 455.55 vs 465.57 last,,,but holding them mid term for 41--425 first trgts lower
1000
stopped out of ROC long from Jan, about 27% profit,,,may re-enter later, not today
957
very very agress could short 133450 here
954
1335.25 mini resist es
953
1330 next mini trgt lower after 1333
952
looks breakable 1333,,makes sense to wait imo b4 scalp profit take...LOL charts changing while i'm typing
951
watching 1333/34 es 2-3 pt scalp trgt reaction, if it breaks lower, can get a nice move lower, active traders would watch closely to exit small profit on half, re-enter,,
945
still see /ZB /ZN futures long or TLT TMF long as better than es shorts tho
941
ES shorts here could work, 1336
940
hpq weak this morn,,,still have 2820--2840 hpq trgt lower,,will see reactions there,,,with the 26 then 24swing trgt still in play
938
stop 54.20 on ROC from Jan entry long swing,,,at 27% profit now and don't want to get caught in downside correction, move up been parabolic
933
still have same targets on VOG: 300 and 3.25
932
APL, not aApl, here is a good buy long imo,,i'm not adding since already in from higher levels
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
i see lower spx,,,but i think APL long will be ok, so holding it,,,i dont think VOG can hold up, so exited that one b4 optimal target hit,earlier today
336
oil might try 101 first b4 lower tho
335
imo,,short oil swings better than short spx
334
*9874
333
shorted oil here at 99.74 for swing,,,might even take off half b4 the close if it moves down, else swing trade
258
1:33pm signal still valid,,,that ES "might have" finished its up move, and begin sideways then decline,
246
REN re-shortable here imo 1166--1179 range
240
tomorrow may present SLV short, zsl,
233
inmpot support test now imo on hpq,,,breaking this and down to .40 trgt micro
227
that TLT 60min chart that looks "so bad".... watch for a BULL W to form on it
140
ES should pullback between now and the close 415 ,,,last 1343
137
APL moving up nicely since the trigger hit
133
ES "might have" finished its up move, and begin sideways then decline, in next 2 hours,,,tho the signals are premature, warnings are there,,, but this is the first "might have" signal i've had for some time now
121
i'm OUT of VOG for now
4% profit,,,did not achieve the 7% and 15% targets on VOG,,,may reenter later
118
APL hit its .64 buy trigger higher,,,watching for reaction and followthru now
109
TLT falling but a bull diverg forming on its 60min chart
106
APL buy stop 3664 above the mkt could work long,into close or swing
104
HPQ 2935, ABOVE its last high, short could work if it gets up there, before 230pm
1257
VOG popped up 1% since the "intraday buy signal",,,still see .97 trgt
1253
starting to get those smaller 15min bear candles on HPQ,,,not done yet
1244
BAL cotton may be giving a "buy back again after taking profits" for swing long cotton, maybe in next 10--120 minutes
1242
hmm,,, my charts say UCO low was 4023,,,but my stop at 4021 was hit,,,so bad data---or "something" else happened,,and filled at 4024,,oh well
1233
VOG trgts: 290,,,297,,,307,,,324
1232
over 285 implies 297 imo on VOG, good for next hour intraday
1231
vog just triggered a 77% confid to break 2.90 higher,,,,,,,not suggesting to buy it here, but could pop to its next trgt
1229
either it holds here to move higher, or im out of oil for awhile
1229
raised stop on UCO oil long now to 4021---tricky here so tightened stop
1214
3987 stop on remaining half of UCO oil long 2x,,,,last 40.50,,riding it up but need a stop in place now that the 99 futures trgt was hit,,,oil moves fast hence the stop
1207
an agressive, early oil swing short might present today
1206
oil outlook short term: a pullback to a higher low, then long on the higher low,,,,then a swing SHORT on the bounce while exiting the long. SHORT may present in 1-2 days, depending on action of 60min charts
1143
watching 9770 oil if it drops near there, last 9832
1142
after it calms down, another reentry long oil may present
1142
OIL just hit its 99 trgt from yest post,,, for 2% profit oil or 4% sco quickTrade,, i posted to have a lim order at 99 because if it got there fast it might pb
1136
if HPQ 15min chart starts to put in smaller candles, sideways, may present a short opp
1132
283--286 vog could work if it gets there in next hour,,for new entries, i'm holding from 280 still half after taking half off for 3% yest
1131
APL over 3850 would give 4070 trgt,,,but longert term i think it can go higher,,,think it can do a move like ROC did
1128
TLT...15min bull harami
1057
VOG new entries might be better to let the 15min charts base for awhile, then enter lower or above mkt
1054
my APL hard stop is at 35.40,,mental stop is higher than that and may exit early b4 stopped out, but hard stop in place in case of sudden downturn, computer problems, or if i forget about the position for a day''
1052
there's a Downtrendline on HPQ 15min near this area
1039
2885 hpq may be tough to crack higher
1034
TBT puts, FEB 19 at .33 and Mar 19 at .74, could work nicely (if TLT moves up, tbt goes down 2x)
1019
tlt tmf buy signal intraday at 74% here, 116.48 tlt
1016
sell signal on es, 70% confid here at 1335.50,intraday
1008
133.44 spy test is trgt,,,and see if that holds or breaks,,stall likely if it gets there
1006
SPY chart is diff than ES...notice SPY has begun to fill gap and broken all its supporta above it,,,,133.76 spy supp
1005
1336/34.50 es trgt 1 is 1330 to cover half there, hold half
1003
aapl shorts are underwater 455.55 vs 465.57 last,,,but holding them mid term for 41--425 first trgts lower
1000
stopped out of ROC long from Jan, about 27% profit,,,may re-enter later, not today
957
very very agress could short 133450 here
954
1335.25 mini resist es
953
1330 next mini trgt lower after 1333
952
looks breakable 1333,,makes sense to wait imo b4 scalp profit take...LOL charts changing while i'm typing
951
watching 1333/34 es 2-3 pt scalp trgt reaction, if it breaks lower, can get a nice move lower, active traders would watch closely to exit small profit on half, re-enter,,
945
still see /ZB /ZN futures long or TLT TMF long as better than es shorts tho
941
ES shorts here could work, 1336
940
hpq weak this morn,,,still have 2820--2840 hpq trgt lower,,will see reactions there,,,with the 26 then 24swing trgt still in play
938
stop 54.20 on ROC from Jan entry long swing,,,at 27% profit now and don't want to get caught in downside correction, move up been parabolic
933
still have same targets on VOG: 300 and 3.25
932
APL, not aApl, here is a good buy long imo,,i'm not adding since already in from higher levels
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
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