Friday thoughts

405
 i took loss on last TLT TMF today on its move higher for "less painful" loss,,,,not sure of what TLT does now, so will watch and look for re-entry in TLT long or short later

400
but exited 1 min early,,,scalp only from 5267,,,es 1334 in 1340 out

359
out 5290 on second half sso

355
llooking 5304 to fill 5300

353
sso 5300 trgt

352
out of TLT TMF with a loss,,will explain later why

345
filled. took profit on half

344
half off sso 5284 if filled

333
apl survived the stop and popped up on 3min chart

330
mental stop .74,,,not hard,,will see reaction if hit

322
5285 sso resist

321
53.22 trgt if able sso....may not make it

313
took profit on NSC 7142,,,will look to reenter short later

306
5266 sso,,v agress trade, taking it long

303
possibility only, no setup yet

302
LONG on ES could work into the close or 415 hour for agressive brave, setting up , scalp only not swing, setup not triggered

256
still in the NSC short,,,tite stop not hit yet...try to ride lower

254
actually i think its more dangerous for the bulls: if we do not sell hard into the close today, but rather have a spin top candle like we have now, on spy

252
1335 and 1339 rnage now on ES, not myuch happening unless one breaks

249
7151 last

249
stop 7156 on NSC scalp short from this morn at 71.96

hmm sell signal now 67%,,,may bounce ES


237
out at 19.26===;last 1930 tvix

233
1912 stop tvix now v tite

232
1912 micro tvix, looks lower then maybe buyable again

226
1-6minutes: es setup to test 1334 triggered, watching if it works or not


224
APL is about 20 cents from stopping me out, for a LOSS if stopped

217
7095 trgt below the 7105 low on NSC, if high vol hits can get a lil extra,,,

215
trying to see if NSC tests its low of day, if so would give $1 move on the short from this morn

210
it is NOT unusual to see no panic on a bear EVE star reversal on dailyk,,,if thats what we get today,, panic sets in when it closes under the low of the 3 day star pattern

208
pattern setting up for poss ES 1334 test lower, but not finished baking yet

138
this is the "down" i mentioned b4 re: selll signal, bounce then lower is normal pattern

130
still on 74% es sell signal,,,it can take awhile when triggered at noontime,, ES at same price now as when it rang

127
one intersting thing, is that qqq down 0.60% even with appl higher, many of the ndx r tired here even with appl higher

1258
ES is up 2 points,,,sell signal still the same on it

1257
poss bear HS also on PKD, so being cautious....BUT these low priced stocks often do not adhere to pattern expectations, so trying the long,for now

1257
PKD i'll trade in and out of,,,,if that is NOT a bear flag daily the i see 7.50 and 9.00

1255
PKD 6.90 first trgt

1254
bought PKD , LONG, swing, at 6.70,,also from focus list last 5 days

1249
REN poss multimonth bear flag daily

1238
ES is at 60min downtrendlin resist now,,trendline could be higher depending on how u draw it

1235
DragonTrader maybe,,,still on the 74% sell, needs 78 then 85% to really move

1232
74% confid sell signal rang on NSC

1225
scalps, this intraday es pattern, usually lower, bounce, then down harder after bounce, if it plays out the pattern

1223
74% sell on es now, tho price has not moved since 72%, signal went up just a bit

1220
7200---7220 resist area on NSC

1219
HPQ 2640 next mini trgt on break of this supp, then 2820,,,under 2800 HPQ may be in real trouble

1215
ES--- 72% confid sell signal just rang, at 1338

1212
hpq weak, but hpq is at support ,testing it, so could bounce,,,but break lower likely since it has not moved up with ES intraday

1209
i might get stopped out of APL not aapl, for a loss today,,,not changing the stop, can always buy it again if stopped out long

1205
looking ok so far nsc,,,the 3min has turned lower, ahead of ES, obviously for swings/position holds the 3min is irrelev, but also trading it intraday

1204
btw, unlike some other stocks that are more volatile than spx spy (higher betas),, NSC trades with about the same volatility as SPY, so more shares needed to get 3x-etf like performance,, however when moving down, NSC could have a temp higher beta

1201
yea its always tricky---i'm trying the short with the belief that if UNP falls, or IYT, then NSC will get hit harder

1157
shorted NSC at 71.97, to both scalp and hold as position,,, filled at .97 and .96

1134
fwiw, NSC and KSU look like they might be good shorts,swing, in transport sector

1122
looking for another component to short,,,the previous CHRW shotr i closed a few days ago was a compon, one reason shorted it,,,looking for poss new entries short in transport area

1103
daily HPQ has a bear harami pattern from yest, a close today under yest low would confirm and be bearish for hpq

1059
IWM russell has an island top, or close to one, with a close under 8175 today

1059
QQQ also has the poss bear EVE star, if it closes under the gap, and the QQQ pattern is more "textbook" since yesterdays gap is easier seen than SPY

1055
And... if SPY should happen to get another gap down, under 133.51, then it would have a 6 day island top pattern

1050
then, that pattern would be confirmed stronger if SPY closes tomorrow or next 1-3 days, BELOW today's low

1049
Yesterday I mentioned a possible bear EVE star was forming on SPY, that a gap down would be needed to finish the pattern. If we get  small or medium candle today, that closes below yest close, then SPY will have the pattern. A larger red candle would be more bearish, but a smaller spinning top is all that's needed to meet the pattern definition. The pattern is not "texbook" because textbook would show a larger gap UP on yesterdays candle, but it still meets the criteria imo. Also, the single candle from yest is a bear dragonfly (one day pattern) vs the additional 3 day morn star pattern.

941
still holding hpq shorts, lower 1.25% today vs yest close

936
The LINE short has gapped down nicely this morning, below the daily lows (prior support) from 1/13 and 2/9....still holding LINE short for same trgts posted yest

841
Took profits pre market on OIL  GOLD since I'll be out this morning.

805
OIL is down nicely this morning. The oil shorts via SCO entered yesterday should give a 3-4% profit.
GOLD also is down nicely. Shorts entered 2 days ago DZZ It too should give about a 3-4% profit.
AAPL position hold short is underwater atm, but holding this multi-week multi-month short.
TMF is underwater also but i still see higher TLT and TMF.  TMF is up about 2% from yesterday, tho, where it may have put in a short term low with its bull hammer candle.

So although form time to time we must take losses, in the long run as long as profits exceed losses, a trader is doing well. The diversification among several positions, instead of just one position, serves as a risk management money tool. Diversification is also a psychological aid, because the trader knows that although some positions are underwater, other positions are showing profits, and this prevents panic or sleepless nights.


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".