Tuesday thoughts

[15:45:04] it seems that spx is getting tired, and a second opp to short again later will present

[15:37:55]   imo, if one is short here, best strat is actively trade it: when it hits the lower trgt, take profit, if it bounces reshort, if no bounce re-eval later
[15:43:13] i have no longs or short on spx, but imo SPX over 1391ish area is still bullish on daily and more likely than not to bounce,,yes there is a wedge forming but still has life in it,,,and those extra "lives" can frustrate shorts
[15:43:35] thus far spx and iwm have been following prior roadmaps pretty closely

[13:24:49] CHRW is still shortable imo here, diff chart than spx,,,im down 1%ish on CHRW, still valid setup for a single entry of 4 poss entries,,,but i am NOT adding more here, will keep the single layer for now...may go higher still.
[13:24:55] chrw is in transports sec

[13:20:24] to simplify: high volume moves come in two places: at the beginning of a move and at the end of a move

[13:14:48] IWM SPY imo not stretched enough yet,,,,they are still too close to the 5 period daily moving avg, and are not at extreme new highs,,,imo not exhausted just yet tho its coming
[13:15:30] waiting for the short trgt higher up,,,or for more signals to confirm each other, b4 swing short
 [13:16:57] at this chart pattern conditions, imo short holders do NOT want to see high volume down, they need high vol up to get buy exhaustion,,,high vol down may wash all the sellers away and dip buyers arrive
[13:17:32] like mentioned b4,,,high vol has diff interpretations depending on other chart factors, and where PRICE is in relation to extreme highs or lows
[13:17:35] imo

[13:08:19] TZA did not hit my target buy price from this morn, i'll keep it open for now, not chasing it
[13:08:48] its forming the hammer on tza (shoot star iwm) we talke about b4,,,imo it will retest lower tza again
[13:09:28] plenty of time to buy tza, no reason to rush and chase,,,yet ....
[13:09:34] dont need to catch the exact bottom
  13:10:42] for a similar example to tza retest,,,notice TLT Aug 9--it retested and decided for a lower low
[13:10:51] tho tza may not

[10:52:19] a shoot star ,,,with these charts, is more likely to be retested higher agina, thus making sideways and more frustration for shorts over days,,,closing at highs has a lower risk of that, to me
[10:52:39] agina=again

[10:32:18] AMD long has moved out of its red, position is now green,,,conserv or nervous would exit here, i remain long swing with no change in the plan

[10:20:02] i'll try to explain analysis more later, maybe post some charts...but in general for indices i only like shorting when an extreme is reached, when its stretched, when divergences, and when the move up is either with big candles big vol or small wedge candles
[10:20:22] at tops and bottoms, increased volume is a reversal signal not continuation
[10:20:38] in mid stages of trends, higher volume is a continuation signal conversely
[10:21:36] also use the correlation with TLT metals oil us dollar, tho those correlations are not 1:1 they exist, imo

[10:12:58] i do not know if it will get filled, but i have an order to buy TZA at 15.54 if it gets there, if not will re-eval,,,swing not scalp,,,entry 1 of poss 4 on tza

[10:01:17] TLT starting to stablize,,still same roadmap TLT swings: bounce tlt, then to new lows tlt, multiweek view...still have the half short TLT via 3x TMV with trail stop
[10:01:56] for spx russell,,,in 1--3 days, spx may be/go lower imo, but still no indice shorts in my port

[09:57:55] still holding chrw short (still only short 1 of poss 4, have not added to it, currently red 1%) and AMD long also red 1%,,,but no change in analysis for either, will continue to hold, same plan

[09:52:08] gm all,,,still traveling...
[09:52:30] gdx and nugt hit their previously posted trgts from yest and days b4,,,gapped over them this morn, lim orders filled
[09:52:41] out nugt 30%ish gain, less on gdx
Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday thoughts

[15:48:53] watching to see if gdx makes new highs on daily chart, tomorrow, or not

[15:13:18] traveling again this week, trading sporadiclly thinner
[15:14:44] no change in analsysis for amd chrw gdx nugt in my opin,,,,same plans
[15:15:32] qqq hit 6843 today near 6850 friday posted trgt, may overshoot it, or be done,

Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday thoughts

[14:06:37] prior market maker report on gdx has been invalidated with a contradictory one,,,,makes sense, its suggesting a bit of chop
[13:48:54] lets see what TLT does in 2--3pm timeframe, another broken record LOL but we each find certain things useful
[13:37:20] would require 6831 qqq to trigger that boll band calc
[13:36:16] using boll band method, qqq 15min measures to 6850ish, which just so happens to also be prior high on daily, and also happens to be the upper boll band level on 60min qqq

[13:32:57] 74% es long bias rang intraday only sig not swing
[13:27:44] bias gdx higher intraday, tho that Market Maker report fired a warning shot
[13:26:54] GDX intraday not swing view: 4520/4552 levels: a break of either would suggest continuation in direction of the break, at 4538 now
[13:24:26] 6850--6900 QQQ could stall the IWM, imo,,,watching if qqq can get up there
[13:07:23] also that harami pattern works better with bigger candles than tlt has on daily

[13:06:22] daily tlt candles are trying to form a bull harami, but still forming, not confirmed by other factors
[13:04:43] TLT poss lower to 121.20 then up 122.50ish, approx roadmap short term, not trading it just observation of possibility

[13:01:51] IWM starting to form a nice bearish rising wedge, to present short setup, but still waiting for now,,the wedge looks incomplete and not high enough
[13:02:29] i dont know if wedge will form, but if it does, imo its one of the best trading patterns to trade, WHEN CONFIRMED with other things, not trading a wedge just by itself


[12:56:05] a bit unusual action here, the move lower on 3min ES has not invalidated the 72% signal, tho it needs 78-85% to move
[12:47:09] hmm 72% intraday long bias signal just rang, spx es
[12:46:02] gdx intraday down to 4520 then up to 4550 poss pattern

[12:42:37] for now, the 1160 order remains in place for nugt in case of surge, and will re-eval early exit as day goes on

[12:35:07] this may cause me to exit the other related nugt swing early today, under its trgt

[12:34:25] i think, not sure, that "someone" big wanted out of GDX near here, the MM will generally try to push it higher if they can, when that happens, before the lower

[12:33:23] the MM report suggests choppiness i think,,,higher then lower again,,,swing perspect still bias higher imo
[12:30:18] tza should see a test higher of 1690ish, BUT imo it may go lower first, i am still on the sidelines
[12:22:17] poss higher low forming on 15min gdx chart, if so could bounce nicely, tho lower low could also come instead of course
[12:21:17] if the gdex moves i will scalp it
[12:20:11] in gdx long again, diff than nugt trade
[12:20:47] buy 1 of poss 4 buys on gdx,
[12:14:36] also the daily candles on chrw, tho higher for several days, are relatively small, non impulsive
[12:09:40] IWM  8147--8181--8300 "overshoot" area

[12:12:58] personally i feel more comfy short in CHRW, downtrend, also 5081 earnings low,,,stocks have a strong tendency to retest those earn lows after the bounce, tho not guar...also its in the IYT transport sect
[11:28:41] when the indices are so sideways-ish, for me its often easier to trade individ stocks or sectors, just personal style
[11:25:37] for tza swing, i'm waiting for one of these:  1. IWM gets higher, far from support, or 2. IWM moves lower, then bounces
[11:23:34] AMD has moved lower since entry,,,i'm giving it some room,,,part of reason for entry goes back to volume on july 10, july 20, aug 8, two high vol down days near the lows after an already multiweek decline, followed bu a decent up day on decent volume
[11:06:42] AMD needs to get over 427 for any real upside momentum

[11:04:54] TLT approaching 122-123 re-short area, no entries yet,,,if it starts to go sideways on 15min chart that would be a poss bearish clue. expecting another trip down on TLT, which may present a long opp
[11:02:09] if CHRW gets high enough i'll add to short pos, else just keep existing

[10:16:12] TLT may be re-shortable 122ish, but will wait to see what it looks like first
[10:16:26] or tmv 3x

[10:10:54] but i did exit half of it yest

[10:10:21] GDX is down a bit here, but still over the mini support posted yest at 4530,, gdx could drop more to 4450 and still not wreck its swing setup imo,,,the stuff is volatile and moves around a lot,,alt is to exit near here with 20%ish gains but i remain long gdx nugt for now
[10:03:40] IWM russel hit 81.37 or close to 81.47 trgt higher from other day, but imo still waiting on the shorts tza for now,swings....tza hit 1650,, IWM may still want 8184
[10:03:59] same QQQ roadmap as b4

[10:00:59] CHRW trgt 1 is 5490, last 5649
[10:01:30] may or may not exit at 5649, if i exit it will be active trading with intent to reshort again later

[09:59:45] AMD mental stops 4 and 3.89 but not hard stops,,,watching to see if it stays above that, if not then will re-eval
[09:56:30] TLT 60min chart looks like it will move up, then back down,,,imo no longs on TLT until after the "down", not today
[09:56:47] unless it got a huge high vol red candle today, tlt

[09:52:31] amd may take awhile, unsure, diff strat than shorting bounce or buying dip, its not either one, poss wedge, but AMD has 20-70% gain potential in it,
[09:51:41] in process of adding 5 to 10 stocks long and short mix into the port, having exited the TMV YHOO and some GDX in the past few days
[09:46:52] also considering long AMD swing, diff strat...its in a vicious multimonth decline but may be finding a bottom soon, will wait on AMD but considering it
[09:47:07] 4.14 last AMD

[09:45:15] CHRW short is still valid at this price imo,swing

[09:42:45] same plan for gdx nugt. will sell nugt 1160 if able,for now, and intend to buy again on a pb,swing
Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thurs thoughts

[16:07:07] 11.77 is NUGT trgt,,,i'll leave the "sell at 11.60" in place for now, under trgt

[16:00:23] NUGT up 10% today, approaching its trgt 2 swing, not quite there yet
[16:00:48] out TQQQ daytrade 3.2% gain,,,sadly it was on a small position, never got chance to add layers


[15:55:20] a closeunder 5640 would give CHRW an "early breakout lower" short setup, similar to yest "early breakout higher setup" in gdx

i'm going to take a negligble profit on yhoo long swing today and exit it,,,,will explain why later,,,


[15:30:32] SHORTED CHRW...u can prob get a bettter price,,,im in here

[15:25:39] i'm going to take a SMALL short in CHRW b4 close, probably,.,,will post if taking it
[15:25:57] ...still a bid qqq intraday
[15:12:36] still have a bid on QQQ intraday,,,watching for poss pull of it,,,may just type "out" if i exit TQQQ early
[15:13:26] GDX may drop to 4511 today, not trading that,remaing long even if goes there

[15:08:23] there is 1 thing that could change that,,,,maybe we will get a final hour "short swing" signal, atm not expecting it
[15:06:58] 4 hours of equity trading, not futures trading
[15:06:31] anything can happn, my charts and timing analysis all suggest waiting at least 4 hours longer before shorting the spx russel qqq, which means not today

[15:03:13] GDX broke over last signif hi of 3 days ago, and is now backtesting it,,,atm its finding support there,,,imo that is only minor support since its newly created and more pb would not invalid GDX NUGT swing longs,,but if the .30 area does hold it would be bullish
[14:56:54] i wont hold the TQQQ from today for those qqq trgts,,,will exit today,,,not trading that idea long, just "sidelines thoughts"
[14:55:34] not saying it gets there, but IWM shorts may be better if/when QQQ gets near 60--62..could take a few trips
[14:55:47] the multiweek rectangle measures to that area, which is a prior hi
[14:55:51] just a thought

[14:44:46] there IS some bearish distribution happening also, some selling into this strength by certain big boyz, per reports,,,BUT they are holding up to selll,for now
[14:44:53] remember,,they layer in and out also


[14:42:56] still a bid under QQQ,,,watching to see if it changes and may exit if it does,,,for now the bid is there so keeping the TQQQ with stop n trgt
[14:41:01] TQQQ scalp at 3.2% gain from entry this morn, tightend stop but still trying to wait for 59.73 TQQQ or QQQ 68.50

[14:34:21] if TLT action remains tame for next 30 min, spx often follows suit till 4pm,,,same for if TLT is harsh wild

[14:11:00] watching to see what treas TLT does in next 50 min
[14:11:15] could give clues to TLT SPX METALS moving forward
[14:11:37] qqq 6802 hit, likely up from here
[14:11:41] 6850 trgt

[14:03:43] QQQ: qqq are likely to follow direction of break of either of these: 6775 brk lower, or 6802 brk higher
[14:04:14] "something" is being suggested in Market Maker reports, cannot figure out the "what" LOL

[13:45:57] imo, GDX may see 4560--4650ish b4 much pullback,from swing perspect, still holding NUGT longs for now

[13:40:34] imo, waiting to see what IWM does in 8147 area, may stretch to 8200ish,,,8100--8200 resist zone
[12:16:04] will sell TQQQ at 59.73 if it gets there, that would put QQQ near 6850 if i did the 3x calc rite

[12:04:42] 4520--4550 GDX intraday mini supp resis range imo

[11:58:56] IWM at resist now, but imo waiting until 8150ish IWN to short, or for tza, for now, may change later...OR wait for a pb on 15 or 60min chart and short the bounce, it "should" be bought on the first pb intraday charts

[11:17:34] a stall would make sense on GDX, but it has enough momentum to blast thru this resist without much pullback,,,will see what happens
[11:17:58] larger ports, would take some off here, and run with half size not quarter size remaining pos, imo

[11:16:51] GDX is now at major resist 4535 area, last 4525,,,a stall here would be ok,,,IF GDX breaks thhis then marginal hi new of 4565 trgt, and if THAT breaks then 46.30 trgt, swings

[10:57:08] YHOO popped to 1497, considering the 1500ish trgt as being hit,,,watching reactions here now,,,bias still up for next 4 hours

[10:53:54] TQQQ at trgt 1 now, 1.3% gain from entry this morn, but holding for higher trgts

[10:46:49] have order to sell nugt at 1160 still, may need to update the trgt but for now leaving it, would be 31% gain if hit
[10:42:22] only took off partial shares in nugt GDX, holding rest for higher trgts, and will buy back gdx if it moves down, maybe to .40 area

[10:41:11] close enough gdx, took profit
[10:41:26] .83
[10:33:27] QQQ and TQQQ just made new intraday high as expected, spy has not
[10:30:17] yahoo broke the mini-resist higher, 1500 ish next trgt

[10:16:49] gdx interim trgt 3363 b4 4485, may stall 4463, waiting to sell at 4485 for now, partial shares only

[10:03:57] in TQQQ starter, buy 1 of poss 4

[09:51:08] watching if yhoo can break its resist, back to same # as yest now, looks breakable higher
[09:38:46] after yetserdays posted "early stage gdx breakout setup", gdx has gapped up a bit this morn, adds confidence to prior pattern
[09:16:26] *36.85=44.85 on gdx

[09:14:24] GDX NUGT TRGTS : Still have open order from other day to sell part of GDX nugt at gdx 36.85, and keep the rest for gdx 45.50 then 46.50 then higher trgt later,swing

Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wedn thoughts

[15:48:46] 60min 15min gdx nugt chart===breaking out early stage for higher for swings

[14:47:37] 4420 trgt if able, if trading quicktrade gdx idea from 4380, or the 3x nugt,,,i'm holding them as swing for longer, for higher trgts

[13:16:08] for those that like to use tite stops, GDX 4380 here stop 4360ish could

[12:48:05] 5450--5490 next mini trgts tna

[12:41:46] other swings positions gdx tmv nugt etc, less active, looser stops, letting them run

[12:39:47] TNA hit a few cents over the 5430 trgt from 930am
[12:40:33] small gain 1%ish on half of shares, but better than loss,,second half using the 5414 stop

[12:39:47] TNA hit a few cents over the 5430 trgt from 930am
[12:01:18] 1401--1405 coil measures 4 points, which just so happens to put it at 1409, which just so happens to be prior es high
[11:58:11] under 1400 es, could see selling on es,,,over that bias up intraday,imo

[11:48:49] 15min ES chart has a bull coil

[11:29:29] over 4412 gdx may pop higher, same trgts on gdx nugt swings
[11:29:54] 4383 last, one could add on a 15min bar close over 4412 using one strat
[11:25:17] second opp here to exit TNA 5410 small gain, but i will hold a bit longer, should overshoot the trgt and get filled, close to trgt now, conserv would exit and re-enter if actively trading,
[10:55:40] 72% long signal rang on iwm tf es
[10:50:43] yhoo looks like it can break resist higher
[10:09:17] TMV up nicely another 3% today
[09:52:05] yahoo popped close to trgt, watching reaction to the test here, stall would be ok
[09:44:41] watching if yhoo gets 1485, needs that in order to accel up

yest i posted TLT and SPX down, that usually TLT wins that battle, today TLT down 0.5% vs spx flat, the generality holds true in this case

[09:17:43] i will sell TNA at 54.3 if it gets there

Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tuesdays

[15:44:13] TLT down today, SPX also down,,,in general TLT wins that battle not spx,,,suggests higher spx lower
[15:38:45] spx can go all the way to 1388 and stii be over its breakout point on daily
[15:00:31] market maker reports show they r still mostly on sidelines atm

[14:59:09] es 72% rang. bias up on that signal for es spx, intraday only not swing
[13:50:16] market maker reports show they are on the sidelines intraday here,,,of course that could change in seconds esp this time of day
[13:48:05] 70% es intraday long scalp signal rang,,,needs 78--85% to move,,,intraday only signal not swing
[13:39:38] watching to see if gdx holds support 1 at 4380

[13:35:46] even if GDX NUGT close near here, i'd be happy for swing long position. it would indicate lack of followthrough from yestedays down day, and suggest new highs on daily chart

[13:24:37] 3min chart bull div

[13:23:54] stalled at buy trgt from 2 hrs ago, so added
[13:22:13] added tna

[12:41:17] TNA hit buy trgt but not adding more, hit .47
[11:37:02] prior limit order on TNA now cancelled, running with this exist pos for now
[11:32:27] entered above preferred limit price, will see what happns.,...may be a quick trade

[11:30:50] in tna here starter
[11:09:21] not sure if will get a fill, but i'll take TNA if it hits 53.47 long
[11:12:02] order only good until 2pm, and may cancel it b4 then if not filled
[10:34:38] a TLT longside swing trade or TMF may be setting up, no entry yet, TLT still on short rallies but that may change later, on sidelines for now
[10:12:26] i am not adding gdx nugt here, just keeping existing position and size

[10:11:21] GDX rite now could work
[10:11:25] daytrade or swing
[10:11:27] or nugt

 GDX will sell at 4485 trgt, NUGT swing will hold longer... gdx actively trading vs nugt passively swing

still see TLT to 122 below 124, but waiting for bounce to reshort using tbt tmv
looking to buy back TMV and TBT later
took profits in TMV  TBT

Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday thoughts

318
small port took, took quick gain on TBT bought earlier, holding gdx tmv nugt for now
[15:07:51] TLT now at the 125.60--125.70 trgt supp test,,watching to see if this breaks or holds, often it holds at this time of day, a break lower would be signif for swings

[14:20:17] If TLT gets under 125.80, it may bring more selling on TLT and higher TBT
[11:45:31] 70% scalp long on ES just rang 1396.50 ES
[11:45:39] same time as 72% TLT short

[11:28:28] added gdx layer 2

[10:54:25] in GDX starter position

1044
in TBT for scalp or swing at 15.29

poss scalp swing setting up: let gdx test 45, then buy pb on 3min chart, not ready yet

Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".