Tuesday thoughts

[15:45:04] it seems that spx is getting tired, and a second opp to short again later will present

[15:37:55]   imo, if one is short here, best strat is actively trade it: when it hits the lower trgt, take profit, if it bounces reshort, if no bounce re-eval later
[15:43:13] i have no longs or short on spx, but imo SPX over 1391ish area is still bullish on daily and more likely than not to bounce,,yes there is a wedge forming but still has life in it,,,and those extra "lives" can frustrate shorts
[15:43:35] thus far spx and iwm have been following prior roadmaps pretty closely

[13:24:49] CHRW is still shortable imo here, diff chart than spx,,,im down 1%ish on CHRW, still valid setup for a single entry of 4 poss entries,,,but i am NOT adding more here, will keep the single layer for now...may go higher still.
[13:24:55] chrw is in transports sec

[13:20:24] to simplify: high volume moves come in two places: at the beginning of a move and at the end of a move

[13:14:48] IWM SPY imo not stretched enough yet,,,,they are still too close to the 5 period daily moving avg, and are not at extreme new highs,,,imo not exhausted just yet tho its coming
[13:15:30] waiting for the short trgt higher up,,,or for more signals to confirm each other, b4 swing short
 [13:16:57] at this chart pattern conditions, imo short holders do NOT want to see high volume down, they need high vol up to get buy exhaustion,,,high vol down may wash all the sellers away and dip buyers arrive
[13:17:32] like mentioned b4,,,high vol has diff interpretations depending on other chart factors, and where PRICE is in relation to extreme highs or lows
[13:17:35] imo

[13:08:19] TZA did not hit my target buy price from this morn, i'll keep it open for now, not chasing it
[13:08:48] its forming the hammer on tza (shoot star iwm) we talke about b4,,,imo it will retest lower tza again
[13:09:28] plenty of time to buy tza, no reason to rush and chase,,,yet ....
[13:09:34] dont need to catch the exact bottom
  13:10:42] for a similar example to tza retest,,,notice TLT Aug 9--it retested and decided for a lower low
[13:10:51] tho tza may not

[10:52:19] a shoot star ,,,with these charts, is more likely to be retested higher agina, thus making sideways and more frustration for shorts over days,,,closing at highs has a lower risk of that, to me
[10:52:39] agina=again

[10:32:18] AMD long has moved out of its red, position is now green,,,conserv or nervous would exit here, i remain long swing with no change in the plan

[10:20:02] i'll try to explain analysis more later, maybe post some charts...but in general for indices i only like shorting when an extreme is reached, when its stretched, when divergences, and when the move up is either with big candles big vol or small wedge candles
[10:20:22] at tops and bottoms, increased volume is a reversal signal not continuation
[10:20:38] in mid stages of trends, higher volume is a continuation signal conversely
[10:21:36] also use the correlation with TLT metals oil us dollar, tho those correlations are not 1:1 they exist, imo

[10:12:58] i do not know if it will get filled, but i have an order to buy TZA at 15.54 if it gets there, if not will re-eval,,,swing not scalp,,,entry 1 of poss 4 on tza

[10:01:17] TLT starting to stablize,,still same roadmap TLT swings: bounce tlt, then to new lows tlt, multiweek view...still have the half short TLT via 3x TMV with trail stop
[10:01:56] for spx russell,,,in 1--3 days, spx may be/go lower imo, but still no indice shorts in my port

[09:57:55] still holding chrw short (still only short 1 of poss 4, have not added to it, currently red 1%) and AMD long also red 1%,,,but no change in analysis for either, will continue to hold, same plan

[09:52:08] gm all,,,still traveling...
[09:52:30] gdx and nugt hit their previously posted trgts from yest and days b4,,,gapped over them this morn, lim orders filled
[09:52:41] out nugt 30%ish gain, less on gdx
Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".