Friday thoughts

[14:06:37] prior market maker report on gdx has been invalidated with a contradictory one,,,,makes sense, its suggesting a bit of chop
[13:48:54] lets see what TLT does in 2--3pm timeframe, another broken record LOL but we each find certain things useful
[13:37:20] would require 6831 qqq to trigger that boll band calc
[13:36:16] using boll band method, qqq 15min measures to 6850ish, which just so happens to also be prior high on daily, and also happens to be the upper boll band level on 60min qqq

[13:32:57] 74% es long bias rang intraday only sig not swing
[13:27:44] bias gdx higher intraday, tho that Market Maker report fired a warning shot
[13:26:54] GDX intraday not swing view: 4520/4552 levels: a break of either would suggest continuation in direction of the break, at 4538 now
[13:24:26] 6850--6900 QQQ could stall the IWM, imo,,,watching if qqq can get up there
[13:07:23] also that harami pattern works better with bigger candles than tlt has on daily

[13:06:22] daily tlt candles are trying to form a bull harami, but still forming, not confirmed by other factors
[13:04:43] TLT poss lower to 121.20 then up 122.50ish, approx roadmap short term, not trading it just observation of possibility

[13:01:51] IWM starting to form a nice bearish rising wedge, to present short setup, but still waiting for now,,the wedge looks incomplete and not high enough
[13:02:29] i dont know if wedge will form, but if it does, imo its one of the best trading patterns to trade, WHEN CONFIRMED with other things, not trading a wedge just by itself


[12:56:05] a bit unusual action here, the move lower on 3min ES has not invalidated the 72% signal, tho it needs 78-85% to move
[12:47:09] hmm 72% intraday long bias signal just rang, spx es
[12:46:02] gdx intraday down to 4520 then up to 4550 poss pattern

[12:42:37] for now, the 1160 order remains in place for nugt in case of surge, and will re-eval early exit as day goes on

[12:35:07] this may cause me to exit the other related nugt swing early today, under its trgt

[12:34:25] i think, not sure, that "someone" big wanted out of GDX near here, the MM will generally try to push it higher if they can, when that happens, before the lower

[12:33:23] the MM report suggests choppiness i think,,,higher then lower again,,,swing perspect still bias higher imo
[12:30:18] tza should see a test higher of 1690ish, BUT imo it may go lower first, i am still on the sidelines
[12:22:17] poss higher low forming on 15min gdx chart, if so could bounce nicely, tho lower low could also come instead of course
[12:21:17] if the gdex moves i will scalp it
[12:20:11] in gdx long again, diff than nugt trade
[12:20:47] buy 1 of poss 4 buys on gdx,
[12:14:36] also the daily candles on chrw, tho higher for several days, are relatively small, non impulsive
[12:09:40] IWM  8147--8181--8300 "overshoot" area

[12:12:58] personally i feel more comfy short in CHRW, downtrend, also 5081 earnings low,,,stocks have a strong tendency to retest those earn lows after the bounce, tho not guar...also its in the IYT transport sect
[11:28:41] when the indices are so sideways-ish, for me its often easier to trade individ stocks or sectors, just personal style
[11:25:37] for tza swing, i'm waiting for one of these:  1. IWM gets higher, far from support, or 2. IWM moves lower, then bounces
[11:23:34] AMD has moved lower since entry,,,i'm giving it some room,,,part of reason for entry goes back to volume on july 10, july 20, aug 8, two high vol down days near the lows after an already multiweek decline, followed bu a decent up day on decent volume
[11:06:42] AMD needs to get over 427 for any real upside momentum

[11:04:54] TLT approaching 122-123 re-short area, no entries yet,,,if it starts to go sideways on 15min chart that would be a poss bearish clue. expecting another trip down on TLT, which may present a long opp
[11:02:09] if CHRW gets high enough i'll add to short pos, else just keep existing

[10:16:12] TLT may be re-shortable 122ish, but will wait to see what it looks like first
[10:16:26] or tmv 3x

[10:10:54] but i did exit half of it yest

[10:10:21] GDX is down a bit here, but still over the mini support posted yest at 4530,, gdx could drop more to 4450 and still not wreck its swing setup imo,,,the stuff is volatile and moves around a lot,,alt is to exit near here with 20%ish gains but i remain long gdx nugt for now
[10:03:40] IWM russel hit 81.37 or close to 81.47 trgt higher from other day, but imo still waiting on the shorts tza for now,swings....tza hit 1650,, IWM may still want 8184
[10:03:59] same QQQ roadmap as b4

[10:00:59] CHRW trgt 1 is 5490, last 5649
[10:01:30] may or may not exit at 5649, if i exit it will be active trading with intent to reshort again later

[09:59:45] AMD mental stops 4 and 3.89 but not hard stops,,,watching to see if it stays above that, if not then will re-eval
[09:56:30] TLT 60min chart looks like it will move up, then back down,,,imo no longs on TLT until after the "down", not today
[09:56:47] unless it got a huge high vol red candle today, tlt

[09:52:31] amd may take awhile, unsure, diff strat than shorting bounce or buying dip, its not either one, poss wedge, but AMD has 20-70% gain potential in it,
[09:51:41] in process of adding 5 to 10 stocks long and short mix into the port, having exited the TMV YHOO and some GDX in the past few days
[09:46:52] also considering long AMD swing, diff strat...its in a vicious multimonth decline but may be finding a bottom soon, will wait on AMD but considering it
[09:47:07] 4.14 last AMD

[09:45:15] CHRW short is still valid at this price imo,swing

[09:42:45] same plan for gdx nugt. will sell nugt 1160 if able,for now, and intend to buy again on a pb,swing
Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".