wedn thoughts

345
3.80 mini trgt AMD interim

335
no MM buying in the SPX large caps, interesting
that combo is often bullish for swings

334
gentle buying in russell here, IWM, by investment banks, nothing major, but buying

258
78%

246
a move below 1453 ES would re-set /invalid the setup 1459.50 --->1464

236
AMD may move up nicely b4 the close, early stage breakout forming, last 3.60

232
if ES hits 1459.50 before 2:44PM,  then 1464 trgt ES intraday

226
STILL no change in Market maker investment bank buy sell levels,,,12:41pm post info still valid, unchanged

222
looks like it should be at 78% es alert now, but remains 76%, has not rung

208
imo if ES tests 1459 again today, it is likely to break over it, after a possible stall or pb first

200
 ES has held the 1455,,,still on 76%

136
76% only valid for 9 minutes, while es over 1455, else it will drop bak to 72% prob

134
decent intraday moves often happen at 78-85%

134
es 76% now

131
 might get some movement in next 12 minutes,,,"games" being played may cause it, just something to watch, 1457 es last

115
agressive could take here 6480 upro or es 1457, im not trading it since already in from lower levels
 or tmv 5815

108
imo,,,the 118 TLT will break lower, after another stall bounce,,,but will see if n when it tests there
: then,,,an opp for tlt longs and spx shorts, finally


TLT market maker and investment banking buy sell levels are similarly spaced to the spx ones: for TLT 118 buy  and 125 sell for the biggest of the investment firms levels atm

so still down bias on tlt for 118

1242
with that type of MM buy sell spread, scalp traders would have tight stop losses, while swing traders would have a loose stop and possibly even buy a pb if one comes

1241
no change in MM buy sell levels,,,which means still have marginally higher hi trgt, with a move lower that would be larger than up move since their buy level is further from here than sell, tho rite now there is no suggestion of a move lower

 bias still for the higher trgt atm

1236
still watching for sso 63.73 mini trgt, last 6346,,,stall likely if it hits .80

1159
77% es long rang,,,tho it does not look like it "should have" LOL,,es 1457

1156
es 1488 would be a target for those that use bull flag calculations, on a break over 1471 ES,,of course that requires a breakout,,, if ES did get there, i would likely short that, as it would finally be stretched extreme

1151
with TLT short still likely to make larger move than SPX longs

1150
imo,, , timing analysis suggests swings on longside for next 4-16 hours in cash market imo,,,esp as long as es is over 1440, i know some will disagree,,,just a thought

1127
early stage breakout attempt highher on SPY 60min bull flag now,,,watching for success or failuyre

1125
sso mini trgt 63.73, last 63.32

1123
the MM levels are not derived purely from SPX  SPY  ES data,,,data on the dow 30 stocks and sp 500 individ stocks is also used, and then a percent is calculated, and then applied to the spx indice

1122
1459ish ES still trgtr on ES,,,markt maker invest banks have NOT yet raised their sell levels, tho i believe later they will,,,until they do, ES is capped at 1460ish

1119
74% long bias es

1113
ES algorithim is also throwing out short bias signals,,but i'm not posting those, since my strat right now is to only scalp long with idea of holding overnite if needed,,,when SPX gives short swing signal then i'll scalp short but not yet

: atm,,, algo still has an up bias long to it

1105
70% ES long bias just rang, 1454.75

1052
conversely, poss longs in GDX or NUGR again, at gdx pb to 52.25ish area

1052
GDX may go up another 5%, or 15% lower on dust, imo,,,so waiting for now,,,may be interested in DUST in that area

1029
still watching bull flag on spy spx es 60min,,,it looks like its trying to break higher, but no confirmation yet,,,its one of many things to watch, for swings and possibly scalps

1014
 watch 1460 ES,,,its curr investment bank sell level,,,it just so happens to align near the ES overnite high, tho thats not how the # was derived

1013
market makers investment bank buy level curr down at 1440ish ES, atm they prefer to buy there if able,,,,will see if they raise either the bid or asks

1011
atm,, market makers are sitting at 1459 ES and will sell there,,, until they raise it, ES wont move higher,,,but they can pull that suddenly any moment

1005
: TMV longs may provide better returns gains than UPRO longs, fwiw,,,tho trading both

1004
still have upro from 2 days ago, same trgts on es spx higher, still buyable here imo

1002
added TMV, loing, layer 2

Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tuesday thoughts

1248
 if TLT breaks under 120.00, may see a reaction in higher spx es

1111
72% higher rang, longside bias, es

1105
SPX  daily has a bull flag forming

1100
 ES has same higher targets as yest, have not changed

1033
70% long bias rang, ES 1452.50, intraday

1009
added to AMD swing finally. bought the backtest on 60 min chart, using daily for the multiweek swing analysis

Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday thoughts

344
: no bearish divergence on 60min spy spx charts yet, from swing perspective

258
on TLT, market makers more interested in selling it than buying it, for now,,,,remain in TMV
for swings esp on tlt

159
1454.25 long ES, using spy upro

146
74% es up from 72%
may see 1459 es test within 30min as result of jump, watching

141
 TLT short signal remains, with TLT having moved under the .60 prior trgt at .56 last, lower lows expected

140
ES intraday long bias signal remains, 72%

102
TLT hit the 119.60 "should go lower if hit target",,,may add more TLT shorts / TMV longs if it can bounce first, which it often does

1227
amd still buyable swing long imo
10%ish initial swing trgt higher on AMD

1213
119.60 TLT would give it 74% short bias, last 119.80

1213
 74% es,long bias intraday

1149
72% es now

1144
1463 and 1468 es trgts

1143
70% es long bias, just rangt, 1456.25 es

1140
we might get a corresponding long bias 70% on es spx, but none yet, last es 1456
1130
72% short bias rang on TLT,,thats TLT and NOT the spx es

1130
TMV long could work here, 3x short of TLT

10:03
TLT shorts hitting targets, now at 20ish gains on TMV swing, 7%ish TLT


Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday thoughts

[15:57:17] took gains early on TMV 3x treas tlt short,,,will look to re-enter
[15:57:26] about 9% move on tmv higher

[13:35:43] intraday tlt roadmap played out, bounce to 124.83, then broke 124.50 to 124.18

[13:28:27] 72% es long bias rang
[13:28:39] could pop in ES in next 12 min

[13:08:50] intraday TLT up to 124.90 then under 124.50 is one pattern roadmap, 124.60 last
[13:04:46] nice nasty candle daily building on TLT daily, good for shorts tlt or tmv longs
[12:53:41] MM continue to sell into this for last few days,,BUT as mentioned it can keep drifting higher while they do so
[12:49:06] 1438 and 1443 es trgt,,, 1443= 1438+ (1437-1432)
[12:43:31] 70% es long bias intraday just rang, "up here" at 1435
[11:44:56] not saying tza gets the 14.41 today, but that would be stretched enough imo to merit early entry
i will buy tza at next lower trgt 14.41, if it gets there, today,, starter position only, same style as gdx except less concern with decay

[11:32:02] i just entered an order to short GDX 51.20, fwiw,,,idk if it gets there today or not but if so i'll short it

[11:28:51] i might take a SMALL starter position on GDX short today, but i will use more shares of GDX and not DUST,,,gdx is volatile enough,,,if i have to hold the gdx for awhile it wont decay like dust
[11:29:00] not posting that in the room tho

[11:20:49] imo,,,shorting spx iwm will be easier when TLT under 124, and pref under 122/120 area,,not here at 125
[11:21:33] TLT suggests that SPX may have a final surge higher b4 a pb,,,idk if it happens but thats one reason i prefer waiting short,,,

[10:59:18] yest tza target was tza at 14.63 when ES hit 1436,, es last 1436,,, tza last 1467,,still not buying it tho its near trgt buy area

[10:53:48] the reports almost always give signals before the tick moves, the tick moves when the mkt price hits the levels numbers
[10:51:42] ES is right at my market maker # from yest, been hovering there
[10:51:57] MM still selling into this but not harshly,,,they can let it drift higher
[10:52:26] the market maker investment bank reports are very useful, only 1 tool of many,,but  can almost just trade off of those

[10:29:53] 10 pointish range in TLT today, vs 5 pointish in SPY,,, the TLT is often more volatile, wider

[10:12:20] tza approaching near yesterday's target move lower, but i wont buy it yet
[10:12:45] maybe i'll buy later,,idk
[10:12:59] the thing is,,,yesterdays rally is highly advertised,,,to retail
[10:13:16] "highest # in 3-4 years " they are broadcasting media
[10:13:33] that could make it hard on shorts imo,,,till it calms down,,,and is forgotten
[10:13:45] tho i dont trade news,,,new 3 yr high is a signif chart event

801
If TMV hits target, it will be a nice 12% move from the corresponding TLT 127.10 area posted 2 days ago.

AMD AMD remains red 11% atm but i'm holding that swing still. these small caps can really shift around. remember that MIND was down red 11% at one point, and then rallied up just as hard into an area that allowed a profit yesterday, though clearly I entered MIND too early to begin with.  Also, the TMV position is 7 times larger than the small AMD position, so a loss on AMD won't damage the portfolio badly. Risk management through both position size and diversification.

7:38 AM
TLT and TMV are trading near yesterdays level of "take profits on half of shares and hold other half".  However, I have RAISED the TMV sell order to its next higher target instead, and will see what it does.

TMV 55.88 is my current order to take gains on TMV.

ES hit 1437, or 1 point over yesterday's posted target of 1436. Market Maker Investment Bank reports provided an accurate 1436 level. ES may continue higher still. No short setup to enter swing.

TZA is at 14.85 now, but i will NOT just auto buy it at yesterday 14.63ish target lower. I will wait.


Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thursday thoughts

[15:46:28] 14.63 TZA i might be interested in buying tza, not before then, for now[15:46:47] calc made same way as prior 1640 1547 and 1500 tza levels


[15:34:12] Market Makers selling treasuries here, nothing agressive but selling ,,suggests higher TMV coming hours days

[15:09:02] TLT has closed right on support, and that is often bearish, as support is easy to break the next day during higher volume open (still has an hour left today, but sitting here at 3pm for bonds isnt good usually)

[15:02:04] if long from ES 1397, makes sense to exit rest here or tighten stop and look to reenter, and take the 33 point gain[15:02:23] 1336 still trgt but that would be safety stop


[14:44:42] 72% bias long rang,es
[13:59:09] 70% long ES rang, up bias intraday
[13:59:18] at 1430

[13:50:25] Market Maker, institutional, and investment bank buy sell levels remain the same almost all day, still ES 1410 and 1436
[13:50:55] 1424 intraday would like be bought on its first test


118pm
TLT still in a dangerous position here and could go lower, which could send spx higher, last 124.72 TLT,,,,i reamin short tlt via 3x tmv

[12:51:47] ES sell signal dropped to 40%, may go up now as result
[12:51:57] 1430 last

2:43:59] 1426--1431 is 5 point range on 15min es,,,just so happens to correlate close to 1436 Market Maker Investment Bank sell area, 1436 as 1431+5=1436,,,

[12:20:59] at 1430 ES,,,68% ES sell signal, not strong enough for any action imo,,,its daytrade not swing signal, not at 70-74%, and even 74% may not be actionable today shortside, watching it

[12:05:48] TMV still waiting for 54.80 for now
[12:04:52] upro order still at 90.00,, MM level evaluates to 90.39 upro, same as b4 MM

1154
ES 1424 area is now support, but its new support as a result of resist break higher turned support, so will be watching to see what it does. will see if it tests 1425, and bounces, over 1424 is very bullish, and over 1390 bullish, for swings


[10:59:30] 1436 should cap today, if it gets up there, ES, imo,,,thats the current market maker, investment bank, and institutional sell level

[10:42:21] i bleive TLT going lower, for multidays week holds
[10:42:36] it needs to test closer to 120-124 and poss break 120 lower
[10:43:07] but lower TLT may "stop" pushing SPX higher, instead i believe we will see spx stall/fall and a rise ingold silver as TLT does its thing
[10:43:35] can write something up later more detailed on TLT SPX GOLD SILVER,,,all from multiweek swing perspect

[10:40:45] Market Maker buy sell levels evaluate to 85 buy and 90 sell for upro, is why i chose 90 upro for now

[10:25:00] raised upro order to sell at 90 now instead, will adjust later
[10:22:22] es hit 1423,,,considering 1424 trgt hit, and may go higher, i'm not shorting this


[09:35:25] still have old upro order to sell 87.70,,,may need to adjust it due to decay but will adjust later, approaching that now, corresponds to 1424ish es


[09:32:48] 1415.50 es hit, considering the 1416 trgt as being hit, 1624 next trgt,stall poss here but could go either way
[09:33:48] since trgt hit, this would be place to take gains on upro sso etc,,,can hold half for higher if desired

[08:32:38] TMV trading 3.5% lower for anyone that took tmv yesterday when posted TLT hit 127.10,,,for swings see lower TLT but one could take profits here on part or all of position depending on how long they want to hold it
[08:32:52] *TMV is higher, TLT lower

8:08 am
Overnight ES hit 1413 or one point over the 1412 target.  1416 and 1424 next trgts on break of each prior one. same targets,no changes



Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wedn thoughts

6:00 PM
MIND has popped higher afterhours from earnings reports. I've decided to take advantage of this 13% move in one day on MIND, and have exited afterhours. I'll look to re-buy again later.  VSE port doesn't allow exit afterhours, so the "game" port at marketwatch.com cannot have the position closed.

[15:51:21] i have an order to sell MIND at 18.00 and then will look to re-enter, not today of course

[13:55:20] 10:04 breakout early signal worked for MIND, now up 6% today
[12:24:43] if 1404 holds thru 2pm,,,shorts likely get squeezed again today,,,
[12:21:20] if 1404 breaks it would invalidate that pattern
[12:19:35] ES set to get over 1406.25 within 12 minutes if this pattern works
[12:04:12] above the mkt at 1406.25,, ES should go higher if it gets 1406.25
[11:40:04] right now, TLT is close to breakdown , and pop higher in ES to higher trgts from this morn, TLT 127.55 ES 1406

10:55
ES should get over 1404 to 1408, 1412, 1416 on break of each

[10:43:39] if the aug 3 TLT gap down near 128 was a "breakaway" breakdown gap,,, TLT may see under 120 before over 128
[10:36:25] 128 TLT poss if 127.3 breaks higher, still see lower later
[10:33:23] TLT short could work here too, 127.06,,or tmv,,near 930 am trgt of 127.10
[10:30:15] ES long scalp hit 5-6 point gain trgt, same higher trgts next, scale out, about $1.20 gain using UPRO

[10:04:17]   poss early stage breakout higher on MIND here, mitcham inc, 14.70
[10:03:02] TLT looks breakable lower, and today (not always) charts sugg lower tlt would be higher spx
[10:00:29] TLT still not hit 127.10 up yet,,remains bearish under that tlt
[09:55:36] 74% es long rang, up from 72
[09:55:42] at 1402
[09:50:38] observe ES and spx if TLT hits 126.40, last 126.72
[09:46:47] long 1400.50 es could work here
[09:42:17] IF the TLT does not hit 127.10 by 10am--1030am,,,,gap down theory would be a lower low on TLT intraday below curr daily low
[09:40:33] testing 1402 trgt test supp # now,micro supp,watching reaction
[09:33:54] 70% suggests the higher #s in the array
[09:33:09] 70% es long bias intraday rang
[09:33:12] 1405

[09:20:57] es micro supp 1402, watching to see if that holds, then other #s same as b4, except that 3min chart now measures 1412 interim trgt b4 1416

[08:57:36] ES hit the 1406 trgt posted 8:28 am,,same trgts for higher or lower as b4

[08:30:16] if ES does not test 1394 lower in first 30 minutes, may be a bullish bias prelude for intraday direction,,watching to see if it goes down there

[08:27:10] retest higher bias, high vol 8am green candle on 3min followed by lower volume red pb suggests up bias to retest 1406,,1408,,1416

[08:25:13] ES futures are moving around pre-market,,,may see some volatility today, esp from 930-1030am

Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tues thoughts

[15:17:31] TLT is at a 70% sell intraday,,,needs 74%,,,watching
[15:17:41] 127.08 last

[15:00:29] AMD is really oversold on daily 60min,,i have some but am not adding here
[15:15:30] if MIND gets 1480 then 1500 test trgt,,,over 1520 it could sail,,,a lot of "IFs" lol
[15:15:52] todays close on MIND may be impt,given earning

[15:06:26] TLT stalled and held support,,, still watching if TLT closes under 126.50, "should" close around 127.04

[14:45:58] MM are buying just a bit here, to hold this up while they sell into the strength,,,nothing huge

[14:43:48] ES 1388 and 1410 are market maker buy sell levels, they are still gently selling into this rally, but that could persist for awhile
[14:44:02] it is far from support, so longs might tighten stops
[14:44:39] unless they increase their bids,,,or higher the ask,,, es will pb,,,tho still see bullish over the 1402


[14:40:53] TLT is now at impt 60min support test,,it "should" stall, but may break lower here without bounce ,,given its 240pm,,watching reaction

[14:38:54] 1408,,es may stall now
[14:39:25] watchin

[14:37:25] 1409 next es trgt,,,nothing complicated,simple horiz resist
[14:37:56] may test 1402 lower,,,if 1402 holds imo ES bullish intraday while over 1402

[14:35:15] one could take 6 points + profit on scalp here from 72%,,,on half and keep half
[14:35:41] es at 1405.50 near 1406 trgt from 1397/98

[14:11:36] ES has momentum enbough to poss run through the 1401 to 1406

[14:10:00] ES hit 1400.50,,considering 1401 intereim micro trgt hit, watching reaction

[14:00:23] TLT action in next hour may give clues for spx and metals direction in coming hours days,,,will see what TLT does
[14:00:57] also TLT does have a bull inv HS on it,,but imo still susceptible to test lower, i remain short but cautious, not adding more atm

[13:55:39] not trading it,,not buying here,,just observation, for those in swings
[13:56:28] the target on gdx nugt "just so happens" to be the same # as prior high, resistance

[13:54:58] GDX has bull coil pennant on 15min chart, trgt 4870 if it breaks, 4767 last print
[13:55:39] not trading it,,not buying here,,just observation, for those in swings

[13:36:53] curr TMV long swing is red 4%ish, not adding to it but trade still valid imo,,,remain with existing position

[13:35:40] TLT also shortable imo between here and bnc to 127.20ish,,esp if willing to hold overnight
[13:35:50] or tmv longs same tlt range

[13:33:03] 1401 trgt with continuation on a break of 1402/03,,,may pb on break b4 higher

[13:31:17] es still same, 72%--75% fluctuating
[11:13:25] still on 72%

[10:52:58] 72% bounce long ES just rang 1397.50

[10:49:45] GDX could drop to 44.50 and still be bullish swing,,,may buy back again gdx nugt at 4490ish area,,last 4766

[10:44:34] if es gets over 1401 intraday es long could work imo


[10:42:42] VTNC may be about to break higher, swing
[10:43:14] needs to get over 4.53 resist, will prob test 4.50, last 4.33

Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".