SPX, why I went short via SDS

I took an spx short swing via SDS again today (also bought SDS when SPX hit 1077).

Here is a quick chart. Maybe I'll post an hourly chart with more details later. This chart is daily SPX not hourly. Much (not all) of the info in Thursday's post below still applies.

Comments are in chart below.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

ES futures updates....

Summary
If ES hurdles 1061 then expect a retest of yesterday's 1066 high, and if 1066 breaks then the bullish scenario in the post below applies.. If 1051 breaks then the bearish scenario in the post below applies.

Wedn 8:04 AM EST
Thus far, the ES basically tested Tuesday's 1053 low, which held. ES then tested 1061, and has pulled back a little to 1059.


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

SPX update

SDS quick note: SDS has retraced nearly exactly 79% to 39.33. A sustained break of 39.33 points to a probable retest of the 38.70 SDS recent low.

SPX scenarios:

See Thurs 9/24 post for additional important levels and charts.

The bearish case is more likely now, given the MACD and RSI.

The Symetrical triangle in the chart below shows:

Bearish:  Break 1057 then 1053 the 1041. If 1041 breaks then the target is either 1016 or 1003, depending on how the coil is measured, with levels in between obviously. Those are the horizontal support and resistance, fibs could also be used to get intermediate levels and clusters.

Bullish: Break out of coil triangle over 1065, then 1069, 1076, 1080.  If 1080 breaks then 1120 with levels in between obviously. Those are the horizontal support and resistance, fibs could also be used to get intermediate levels and clusters.

Sunday eve/ Monday pre-market ES futures

Monday 7:24 AM
ES held the support at 1039 and has range traded as noted in post below Sunday 7:36 PM EST.  Now, the charts suggest a possible move to 1055 if they can break above 1045, else they continue to range trade. So the scenarios remain the same.  

Bulish: Break over 1045 for 1055 as first target, higher if 1055 is hurdled.
Bearish: If 1045 R holds and ES breaks under 1036 then 1027 is possible.

Sunday 11:48 PM EST

1039 has held so far as Resistance as suggested below...1038.75 is highest hi since the 1036 test...see what happens as the night drags on to see if 1039 breaks higher or 1036 breaks lower.


Sunday 10:01 PM EST
1039 is now showing resistance. See if ES turns down on the bounce from 1036 to 1039 (if it gets there). ES last - 1037.


Sunday 9:48 PM EST
Well, ES just tested 1036 as expected. Right now, 1036 held. We will need to wait to see if 1036 continues to hold or breaks down. Target on break of 1036 is the same: 1027/25. 

Sunday 7:36 PM EST

So far, ES opened higher than Friday's close, advanced to 1044.75, and declined thus far to 1040.75.
ES 1044 was a significant number on Friday, since it is Fridays "selloff point" at 2:45 pm.

Of course, it's early Sunday eve now and early to tell what will happen. Right now, it appears that overnight ES will range trade between 1036 and 1045 and save any breakouts for normal hours trading. ES looks headed to a test of 1036 now, which must hold to prevent further declines.

 A push to 1050 is possible if 1045 is breached.

Potential pattern developing: I see a pattern developing now that points to a decline in ES to 1027 in the next 24 hours, if 1045 resistance holds.    Unless ES changes its pattern and velocity, the charts are now suggesting a gap down open tomorrow, which is different than Friday chart's suggestion of a bounce up. So we will need to see what shenanigans are in store with ES.

Friday's charts suggested a bounce up tomorrow (Monday) and then a move to 1027, but it's possible that the decline could happen without a bounce. Conversely, a move over 1050 could propel ES to 1077/80/85.
---------------------------------------------------

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Significant ES price levels

ES weekly support is at 1044.
Weekly MACD histogram is down but week is not finished yet. RSI starting to point down.

SPX weekly support is at 1051 and MACD histogram is down but week is not finished yet.  RSI starting to point down.

SPX closed right near daily 15 MA support 1050.78.

Important ES numbers (see chart below): 1028, 1039, 1045, 1052, 1076

Move from 991 to 1076:  ES has retraced 38% of the move.
Fibs from 991 to 1076 move (chart below):  1056(23%), 1043(38%), 1033(50%), 1023(62%),  1009(79%),  991(100%)

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

SPX scenarios Wedn

Following numbers are for SPX, not ES:

Bullish scenario: If 1075 breaks higher, then target of 1085 while breaking over 1079, 1081, 1083.

Bearish scenario: If 1057 breaks, then targets are 1052, 1044,1036, 1026, 1014, 1001, 992.  The swing targets would be 1052, 1044, 1036.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tues eve / Wedn pre-market ES

Wedn 6:27 AM EST

So far, in overnight trading, ES made a Hi 1070.5 and Low 1063.75. The 1070.5 is just one point away from the previous high of 1071.5.

Although ES violated the preferred support at 1065, support held at the 20MA so the pattern remains bullish. Key numbers to watch are 1051 and 1072.

A SUSTAINED break of those could trigger accelerated price movement in the direction of the break.  It will be interesting to see if ES can break over 1071; it has tried unsuccessfully many times. A break under 1051 would be bearish short-term. I wouldn't expect a break of either on the first try, but anything is possible, especially if there is high volume when the test occurs.


Tues 5:11 PM EST
The pattern carved in the 15min ES during the past 8 hours suggests a move up to 1076 if 1065 support holds. Whether it happens overnight, or tomorrow, or at all, remains to be seen. The SPX chart suggests SPX target of 1084 in the coming hours/days. ES 60min chart shows bearish divergence which could stop the move, but SPX does not have the divergence. The support and resistance are more important to me these days than divergences, unless the diverg is in the daily or weekly charts, not 60minute. Another bearish thing that could stall the move is that the ES has tried several times (without success) to hurdle 1071.  Whether that failure is due to weakness or just high level consolodation remains to be seen, but that is a cautionary warning.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

NQ futures-- 1742 next?

See post below for ES futures. This is for NQ.

NQ has an ascending triangle in 60min chart that points to a target of 9 points or to 1742/44 if it can hold 1726 and break over 1735. After 1742, the next target is 1755 (projected from V formation).



* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

ES futures Monday eve / Tues morn -perfect 1069 forecast

Tues 8:55 AM - 1069 target exactly hit!!!  ES futures still bullish following the roadmap until < 1066/64....that 1069 was hit,,,my exact target. ES can decline further and still be bullish, but the 1066/64 number would be very bullish.  But a break below 1062 implies a test of 1059, then if 1059 breaks, 1056, 1051. ES support at 1064 coincidentaly represents BOTH the Fib retracement number and the 15MA in 60min chart.


Tues 4:33 AM  Well the futures hit a high so far of 1068.75, a mere 0.25 off my first target.  As long as the ES does not retrace lower than 1066/64, the bullish scenario in the Tues 3:38 AM update is still valid.

Tues 3:38 AM  The ES futures are up at 1067 right now. The 60min downtrend line has been violated to the upside. This is close to my first target of 1069 posted previously. Next targets are 1072, which is key because it is the prior high. Then 1077, 1079, 1083 next. Let's see what happens.

Monday 10:24 PM

The ES futures are up.

The 60min chart points to 1069 target if 1060 holds and if ES pierces the upper channel trendline around 1063. Since 1069 is so close to the previous high of 1072, the 1072 is probably in sight also. Whether this happens overnight or tomorrow during market hours remains to be seen.  The 1069 target was calculated using the inv Head Shoulders pattern.

If ES cannot break higher out of the channel line around 1063, and if 1060 breaks lower then 1056 possible, and 1051 if 1056 breaks.

Right now, the charts are pointing UP, which is why I did not hold the BGZ overnight (sold at close Monday).

It will be interesting to see if ES can re-test the high, because we are getting mixed bullish and bearish signals. Bearish lower low, lower high today as I mentioned a few times in the room. Also a bearish last 30 minutes as prices peaked, touched the upper channel line (60min) and retreated back to 1058.  But inverse HS bullish, and also the QQQQ were bullish.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

ES futures updates....

These are futures updates for Sunday night futures. The SPX analysis is in the post below.


Monday 9:02 AM AM PST
ES 1058 is impt level now... bulls want to push above that... unles they do the charts indicate more downside to ES. Watching to see if a small inv HS dev in 15min chart...if that happens then target would be 1060. Right now, however, ES still looks headed lower for 1046.

Monday 4:00 AM PST

The ES appears to be playing out the M formation double top i mention below with 1046 as a target. There is also a small 3min double top that points to 1054. See if ES bounces or holds 1054. If ES stays under 1056 then it should be on the way to 1046, but of course we are in low volume overnight so it can find support anywhere.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday 7:32 PM PST
ES 1056 is an important area to watch. As I mentioned on Friday, the ES hit a low of 1056 Friday pre-market but never went that low to retest it during market hours on Friday.

Right now, it's still early, the ES gapped down at 1059 on the Sunday eve open, made a low at 1057.50 and is now at 1059.  The 1056 has not be re-tested, ES held at 1057.50 for now. There are many hours of futures trading so anything can happen. We will need to watch to see if the ES fills the down gap, breaks below 1056, or just trades in the 1056 --- 1064 range.

The gap down  has made the double top M scenario much more likely, if 1056 breaks and sustains then the bear dbl top is confirmed...but of course the premarket afterhours graveyard shift is known for its shenanigans...can reverse higher b4 9:30 AM...will wait and see

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

SPX outlook: 1052? 1085?

Summary:

The most important numbers I see are 1064 / 1060 support and 1075 resistance.

Bearish scenario: Target of 1052/51. If 1052 breaks, SPX could go lower to 1044,1036, 1026, 1014, 1001, 992.  The swing targets would be 1052, 1044, 1036.

Bullish scenario: target of 1085/89 if 1075 breaks higher and sustains.

This post is similar to Thursday's but I erased all my charts and started again for this post. This produced a similar analysis. Also note, that on Thursday I suggested that it might take 2 days for the breakout to occur.
------------------------------------------

There are both bullish and bearish cases. I favor the bearish case, although usually, coils and triangles and consolodations will break out in the direction of the prior trend (in this case UP), but other factors negate this and muddy the waters. We have bearish candles the last two days (dojis) that are unable to close at the high. There are mild sell-offs at the close (last hourly candle). RSI and MACD suggest a pullback.

Bearish case points to a minimum first decline to 1052 as shown in 15minute chart below. It's interesting that this is close to 1053, which is what the Thurs analysis number was. When I did this chart, I started over from a clean slate without editing the previous one, and the projection remains similar.

On Thursday, I stated "The third alternative is that the coil doesn't break either higher or lower at the apex and instead resolves into a narrow range".  This is exactly what happened on Friday, very narrow range day.  The posts below from Wednesday and Thursday still apply so I'm using those as well to guide my decisions.

15 minute SPX chart

60 minute SPX chart below shows bullish scenario with 1085/89 target. The charts from Thursday below still apply, they show similar targets of 1087 and 1088. Although we do not know which way this will break (higher or lower) the charts are exhibiting amazing consistency, giving the same targets in various timeframes and various days.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

ES futures overnight update, bullish and bearish scenarios

ES futures overnight update, bullish and bearish scenarios:

Bullish:   ES over 1061, and tests 1069 then 1072 then 1078, 1081, 1987, 1097
Bearish: ES breaks under 1061, then tests 1058, 1055, 1045, 1029

Some numbers to watch in ES
1065 -- break AND hold over 1065 and ES might not turn down as it heads to 1073, 1097. Not guaranteed, just cautionary warning if short. Will need to watch the ES action, stoch, rsi, and price action if it churns around near there.
1062 -- pivot. Over 1062 bullish, under 1062 bearish
1072 -- yesterday's high
1056 --- dbl bottom? overnight low AND yesterday's low...it held support

ES might not make it lower than 1065 / 1061 since in past it has only been retracing 23% lately. So watch this level.

Fib retracements from Tues move up: 1065 (23%), 1061(38%), 1058(50%), 1055(62%), 1045(100%), 1029(162%).

Overnight ES trading:

1071 to 1056 decline fib retrace: 1062 (28%),,,,,1066(62%). Break over 1066 likely means retest of 1071 and possible break higher.

1071 to 1056 decline fibs ext: 1052(23%), 1046(62%), 1040 (100%).

Fib retracements from Tues move up: 1065 (23%), 1061(38%), 1058(50%), 1055(62%), 1045(100%), 1029(162%).

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

SPX outlook for next 2 days --- 1053? 1081?

SUMMARY:

The ES futures could change everything overnight, but here is what I see right now.  I favor a break lower to 1053 tomorrow. But if SPX gaps up or down severely then things could change.

Chart 1 below -  The current coil on 9/17 points to a target of either 1081 or 1053, depending on whether it resolves up or down.  The third alternative is that the coil doesn't break either higher or lower at the apex and instead resolves into a narrow range.

Notice how the upside targets are all similar: 1081, 1087, 1088, all calculated during different time periods.

Chart 2 Below - The V upmove from March has a target of 1087 (Chart 1 below).

Chart 3 below -  The 9/3 upmove target is 1088 (100% Fib)

Other tidbits (no charts posted for these)
1. The ES futures 60 minute chart also shows a broadening formation, which you cannot see in the SPX.
2.  The ES also shows a potential (not fully formed) M double top bearish, which just shows in the SPX as the 2 candle harami instead.

DETAILS:

Chart 1 below -  The current coil on 9/17 points to a target of either 1081 or 1053, depending on whether it resolves up or down.  The third alternative is that the coil doesn't break either higher or lower at the apex and instead resolves into a narrow range. RSI and MACD both point down and suggest a break lower, BUT it's close, and the stoch might do a bullish cross. Further, SPX is sitting right on 60min support.

Chart 2 - The V upmove from March has a target of 1087 (Chart 1 below)

Chart 3 - The 9/3 upmove target is 1088 (100% Fib)

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Possible SPX pullback: it tends to pull back after it is 100 points away from the 15MA

The SPX tends to pull back after it is 100 points away from the 15MA

For example: The May 4 Weekly high 956.23 with the 15MA of 855.63 pulled back to 869.

This week so far: the weekly high is 1068.63 with 15MA of 977.76.  This suggests that SPX is close to repeating a pullback similar to May 4, since 1068--1077 is about 100 points from the 15MA. The SPX 1077 also is amazingly close to other key fib numbers. The slide from 1039 to 991 has a projected 63% fib of  1070 and 79% fib exten of 1078.

If SPX gets to 1068 and retraces, then fibs are: 1051 (23%), 1039 (38%), 1021 (61%)
If SPX gets to 1078 and retraces, then fibs are: 1058 (23%), 1045 (38%), 1024 (61%)

Also, the more recent decline from 1048 to 1035 projects these fib extensions as target prices higher:

1057 (61%), 1063 (100%), 1073 (161%).  The "standard" extension for this type of move is 100%, which is why I took a swing short. I was expecting the SPX to cap out at 1063/65 (100%) but it went higher to 1068 thus far, and 1073 is possible too.

It's very intersting that both moves - 1039 to 991 (initial larger) and 1048 to 1035 (smaller secondary)  both project smilar targets.

Note that the uptrend has been strong, and SPX has only been retracing 23%. So, will look to see if 23% holds or breaks lower.

This pullback phenomena is not unusual, it's standard classic tech analysis. The point range is not a fixed number, it could be 5 points or 200, but the idea is the same: when the prices get far away from 15MA they tend to pull back. This makes sense, since the 15MA (or 20 MA) represents support. In fact, prices can make these big declines and STILL be in an uptrend. The trend will change to down if prices close BELOW the 15 MA and sustain down. Reverse is obviously true if the trend were down.


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wedge broken on time, SPX red on Thurs?

Well the wedge broke on time as indicated in post below.  However, it broke HIGHER, which wrecks the bearish nature of the wedge, and now the SPX has an up channel.


Looking back at spx, since Sept. 4, every time it hit the upper channel line, it pulled back (which is normal and doesn't negate the uptrend), so perhaps tomorrow SPX will see lower prices.


Of course, SPX could put in another green Marubozu green candle instead. There is a 1073 / 77 fib extension.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

qqqq complex poss bull flag

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Futures up, break higher or lower?

Futures are up this morning to 1051.50 right now.

Below post suggests a break of the wedge lower, but Mr. Market might have other plans :)


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Following the trend... vs counter-trend trades

i agree with "trend  is your friend" for sure.

however, i also am a proponent of taking trades
whenever risk:reward is merited, EVEN IF they are counter-trend.

what's wrong with taking a short position and taking a 2% loss if you're wrong? so what@!

if you go long in an uptrend, you can still lose 2% or 5%

a trade is a trade

i'm not advocating trying to pick a top...BUT i also like to sell greed

and the market is showing signs of ridiculous greed

so during this time, i'm taking both long and short positions

it works....the profits far exceed the losses

just another counter-opinion fwiw

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

SPX bearish rising wedge == break on Wednesday?

There is a bearish rising wedge in the SPX 60min chart. If the SPX continues at its current velocity, the wedge should break lower tomorrow (Wednesday).  The velocity of SPX was rather consistent the last few days intraday, as I accurately called the upward breakouts of the triangles intraday today - they came 7 minutes before the timeframe I called. Of course, this is no guarantee, just a suggestion to the recent reliability of the velocity.  Yesterday they were within 1 hour accuracy.

It's possible that the SPX puts in a doji candle on Wednesday and doesn't break on Thursday, but that would require a slowed velocity or a shift to consolodation vs. upward movement.  And of course, the SPX could break out higher, especially given it's recent strength.

However, purely from a technical perspective, the charts suggest that it breaks lower on Wednesday. Now, it is common for a backtest of the broken wedge to occur, so after the break the SPX could move up.

Also, the DAILY SPX also has a rising bear wedge with the same velocity.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Can SPX see 956? One scenario

Since april breakout over 867, spx made 2 moves higher (930 and 957),,, then corrected down back to the breakout level of 868. A scenario: expect similar behavior again: spx broke higher from 958 and made 2 moves to 1018 and 1056 (or wherever this ends) and then I expect re-test of the 958ish breakout level. These are not exact numbers, just the big brush picture. If that happens, then it will be interesting to see if 958 breaks higher or lower.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

SPX gaps down using SPY

Not long ago I was looking for a possible gap island reversal, which did not occur, but here is some viewpoint regarding gaps.

There have not been any large gaps down since March 1, 2009. A large gap down could be significant and could represent a downside breakaway gap and cause a trend reversal to downside. Often, if the gap down is not filled in the first 2 hours of trading, then further lows for that day are made.

Since March 1, 2009, using SPY, these are the gaps DOWN:
8/17:  made a spinning top, and daily double low, trend resumed up.

8/31:  gap down at 102.37 (from 102.67 prior day low) painted small green hammer, which makes sense since it was barely a gap down (only 30 cents).  Next day (9/1) ended down but with great volatility. the red bar on the day after the gap actually had a high (103.24) that closed the gap, but the day ended down at 100.20 .

9/2 another small gap down (99.78 from 99.99). Printed a doji that filled the gap.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

ES retraced exactly as expected so far

Right now, the post below is playing out as expected. The ES futures declined decline overnight to 1025, right near my SPX 1026 target in the post below.

2 weeks ago I also expected a reversal at 1044, which has happened at 1043.75 thus far.

However, we will have to see if the ES remains below the trendline, or if it rallies higher before the 9:30AM equities opening bell today.

Key Pivot I see for next few hours is ES 1036. Under 1036, ES is bearish, over 1036 it begins to become bullish and negate the fall from 1043.75 to 1025. If ES stays under 1031, that would be very bearish.

Bullish scenario: ES rallies and breaks over 1031 for a target of 1036. If 1036 breaks then expect 1038, 1041, 1044, 1053, 1062.

Bearish scenario: ES stays under 1031 (or 1036 at most). Test the prior low of 1023 and 1018, 1016, 1012,

1044 -- prior significant high.
1028 -- prior high, breakout point #2 when ES went to 1044.
1022 -- Daly MA 20
1004 -- breakout point #1 when ES went to 1044.
991 --  prior significant low.
983  -- Daily MA 50

991 to 1044 move up: right now, the ES retraced close to 1026, close to the 38% (1024) of that move. It could bounce back from there and continue up past 1044. Or, it can retrace to 1011 (62%). A sustained break under 1011 would suggest a test of 991. Also, if 1011 breaks lower, it is probable that 991 will also break lower for a test of 983.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Probable SPX retracement

The charts indicate at least a minor retracement and lower prices in the SPX.  Commentary in the chart below.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Mid term holds... short via SDS DXD

For now, I'm sticking with ES 1039 and 1050 as good risk:/reward to short...with appropriate position size and risk control of course. Details in post below.

Will also add some DXD at DOW 9700 with similar risk controls in place.

These are for holding for weeks not days, although of course I'll take profits sooner if they hit the right levels.

SDS 42.12.

DXD: none yet

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Overnight ES futures

First, the scenarios:

Bullish scenario:  IF ES breaks over 1025 and sustains over 1025, then test 1027, 1030, 1035, 1038, 1044, 1053.
.

Bearish scenario: IF ES stays under 1025 then test 1019, 1016, 1009, 999, 991.

Now, the details:

FIBS and Horizontal Support / Resistance
The ES retraced 23% and a 38% retracement would be 1020. Other fibs lower are 1015 (50%), 1009 (62%), 1001 (78%), 991 (100%).

Horizontal supports:     991, 999, 1016, 1019, 1025, 

Horizontal resistance:  1035, 1038, 1044, 1053

Chart commentary

The blue lines are fib fans, and technically the trend is still up for the Friday--Thurs period. It can retrace to the lowest Fib line and still be "up". A break under the third blue line would indicate the Friday upmove is over.

The three yellow lines are trendlines that I drew that touch multiple lows. Although the Fib blue fans allow for lower prices to be considered "up", the violation of the lowest yellow line (#3) signals an end to the Friday--Thrus upmove IF the ES stays under it. Right now, as I write this, it is only a marginal violoation, so let's observe as the day progresses and see if the third yellow line holds as Resistance.

The MACD and RSI show the Negative Divergences in the ES which caused the current retracement down.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Will SPX form a bearish M?

Will SPX form a bearish M (or HS)?

I haven't seen a chart like this on other sites, just another scenario idea. Not sure this will play out, though I did call the W formation that started the July rally. This M formation is not nearly as clear as that W though. SPX can make a new high around 1053 or DOW 9700 and still form this. In time, the M formation could plunge the SPX to 939.51, 916, or 877.93. Instead of an M, could form a Head Shoulders pattern.

Below chart shows juxtaposition of the BIG bullish W vs the smaller more recent M. The W points upward to 1120 or 1230.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Where is SPX headed next? Update

First, a few tidbits and thoughts:

(1) Very interesting...the MACD still is not flashing any buy signals on the daily chart even after all this upmove the past 5 days...its not infallible, just one tool, yet interesting. thats macd daily not hourly...for mid term trend.

(2) The Last move the V produced 62% 976--1012---1034

(3) This current V projects from 1040 (62%) to 1080 (78%)

(4) The initial upmove suggests 1039....exactly where the SPX stalled! Maybe it's the top or at least time to retrace.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ok, now here are both the Bullish and Bearish charts below.

I will go out on a limb. I think the SPX heads DOWN from here, or at most the SPX hits 1053 and then heads down to 1007 if 1027 breaks. Depending on whether 1007 holds, it could go lower. I don't know what day(s) this will happen on, but those are the most likely pivots and scenario, until the charts change. Also looking at DOW 9723.

Bullish: The SPX DAILY chart below suggests 1059 to 1071 IF 1039 is pierced and holds over 1022. The projection on the right suggests a move to 1059 -- 1071 is possible this week, in 2-3 days, without a pullback below 1022.

These 2 charts (one image below with 2 charts) both suggest that the SPX has gone "far enough" and they suggest that "it's time" for the SPX to make a retracement. The charts suggest that a pullback should happen "now", even IF the SPX is still bullish on the way to 1085, that it should pull back and then go for the 1050/ 1085 / 1100. The charts suggest this because the SPX hit 79% Fib extension from 666.79 low (first chart) AND the SPX also hit 161% Fib extension from the July 17 upmove (chart 2 on the left side)

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

ES futures update, bull/bear scenarios

ES hit the 1027 and 1028 a little while ago at 815am

830am. the 1022 i mentioned early this morning actually ended up being

the breakout point. Overnight low was 1018.75.

so 1022 still a good bull/bear pivot.

Scenarios are the same still, except that I'll add: if 1025 breaks lower then expect 1022 test.

Scenarios: I realize the numbers are close together. These represent the multiple layers of mini support and resistance. Key numbers are 999, 1007, 1018, 1022, 1027, 1039, 1044

Bullish: ES over 1023 implies tests of 1025, 1027, 1028, 1031, 1033, 1039, 1044

Bearish: ES under 1023 implies tests of 1019, 1016, 1012, 1007, 1004, 999

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

ES futures overnight, key pivots

1019 continues to be an important support level. It was tested on Tuesday 10AM and again on Wednesday 2:45AM and 3:30 AM and has continued to hold. Resistance levels are 1025, 1027

Right now, the ES tested 1019 and bounced to 1022. ES 1022 is important pivot, so I'll be checking back later to see if 1022 micro R holds ES down or breaks higher. ES is right at 1022 now. The stoch and rsi suggest a break higher of 1022 to 1027 IF the RSI violates higher it 60min downtrend line around 60. Last RSI is 52. If RSI stays under 60 then lower prices are indicated. The 15min chart shows the potential dev of bull INV Head Shoulders if ES stays over 1020 for the next hour.

Scenarios: I realize the numbers are close together. These represent the multiple layers of mini support and resistance. Key numbers are 999, 1007, 1018, 1022, 1027, 1039, 1044

Bullish: ES over 1023 implies tests of 1025, 1027, 1028, 1031, 1033, 1039, 1044

Bearish: ES under 1023 implies tests of 1019, 1016, 1012, 1007, 1004, 999

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

ES SPX direction?

The ES and SPX have so many conflicting signals and chart patterns right now. I spent a few hours drawing some different charts, and I don't really like any of them, so I'm not even going to post a chart tonight. I don't want to "force" a pattern where it doesn't exist. The patterns may in fact be there (bearish wedge, Head Shoulders), but because there is no clear pattern, I prefer to wait and see. The ES futures right now definitely show a COIL to me, but because so much can happen overnight with the futures, I'll just stay on the sidelines and observe.

However, the PIVOTS are still valid and that's what I'll be looking at, in addition to the RSI and Stoch and MACD.

The points in the post below about VOLUME still apply. Today was a low volume day again.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Where is SPX headed on Tuesday?

The SPX can go either way on Tuesday. We should have a clearer picture on Tuesday. Below are both the bearish and bullish scenarios.

Volume: Note that it took 3 days on LOW volume to undo one single day of HIGH downside volume. In fact, the volume on the big red candle (from this Tues) was larger than any day in July or Aug, during the uptrend.

Mostly I am bearish next week. My only concern about stamping "bear" more definitively is that the SPX actually IS perched above the downtrend line connecting the highs, and it right now it is consolidating ABOVE that line, which is bullish. We retraced about 50%, and 1021 would be a 62% retracement. My previous chart posted yesterday suggested 1013/17 move today, which is close to what we got. And the 1016 is right at a prior "breakout" point.

See the chart below, where:

(1) I also noticed, however, that the last time SPX hit above the trend line by a few points, the SPX actually declined (on 9/1). Notice how the original yellow line was broken higher and followed by a decline (although on 9/1 the decline happened the same day). Will the newly drawn green trend line have a similar fate as the yellow and decline?? Or, will the SPX go higher, requiring yet a third new trendline? If a third trendline is drawn, and the SPX breaks over THAT one, then that would argue that the downside ended at 992, for now.

(2) The solid blue lines are the fib fans for the move UP starting 08/18. Notice that the SPX moved up, but broke BELOW all three fib lines. The break under the 3rd fib is generally considered the end of the uptrend. Notice also how that third Fib line is now acting as RESISTANCE. So this means that the move from 978 to 1039 ended at the 1039, UNLESS the SPX can break above the lowest FIB fan line. It can go either way. We will need to wait and see.

(3) The red fib retracements on the right side of the chart are for the DOWNMOVE from 1039 to 992 (bearish scenario), NOT for the upmove 978--1039. The BULLISH scenario would say that the move from 1039 to 992 represents a 78% retracement of the move up (those fibs are not on the chart to avoid clutter), and that the retracement ended at 992, and the SPX is now on the way to HIGHER HIGHS. This could be the way it works out. We really will know more on Tuesday.

Chart below is 60min spx.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

ES hits the exact trendline again

ES hit the yellow trendline again. All very interesting.
Updated chart. I didn't redraw anything. Just new prices.
Analysis is same as post below.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

ES futures update 6:50 AM

Overview: Right now, ES is headed up but upside looks limited to 1008/10 UNLESS the ES can hurdle those with force. The 15min chart shows some bearish divergences, which suggest that 1008/10 is the limit for the next 2 hours anyway.

Details:

ES futures following the bullish scenario in the post below this one. It's interesting to see that the prices hugged my yellow line on the way up; I did not re-draw the line to make those fit.

However, the R levels need to be broken to go higher. Analysis remains the same for next 2 hours, except that 1000.50 makes a better pivot now than 998, and perhaps 1010 instead of 1008. If the bears hold around 1010 then they can begin to force the 20 MA to start sloping downward (on the DAILY charts, the 20 MA is currently flat, while 5 MA is sloped down).

Although it "looks" like the bull sceanrio is playing out, must remember that ES needs to hurdle 1004 then 1008. Last ES is 1004.75 but that's not really a break higher, at least not yet. Also, the 15min chart shows some bearish divergences, which suggest that 1008/10 is the limit UNLESS the ES can hurdle those with force.

I've attached the same chart as the post below. I did not change any of the trendlines. The only thing different are the new candles that have printed as a result of price activity during the night.

It's interesting to see that the prices hugged my yellow line on the way up; I did not re-draw the line to make those fit. But again no break over the 1004 horizontal just yet.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

ES overnight / Friday daytime trading scenarios

Charts for overnight ES support both bullish and bearish views.

For overnight, I see 998 as an important pivot. If the ES can stay over 998, then the bullish scenario is likely. If ES declines under 998, the bearish scenario. Or is the upper R or lower S not broken then it range trades.

In the morning, the 998 pivot and scenarios below might need adjustments, but this is what I see for now.

Bullish: ES stays over 998, and tests 1004 R. If 1004 breaks higher, then 1008, 1011, 1014, 1017

Bearish: ES breaks under 1000, then breaks 998 to target 985

Range: Actually right now, the ES is trading in a range and can do so all night long.

Calcs:

(1) The Ascending Triangle (W) in the chart is 991-1004 = 13 points. So 1004 + 13 = 1017 max target but think 1008 will give resistance.

(2) Note that the upper R trendline gives a similar 1012 max target

I noticed the possible W below before it was complete and made a nice 1 hour daytrade using sso at the breakout point, buying at 30.70 and selling at 30.87 and selling more at 31.03 high (the last 2 green candles were caught) and posted in Gary's room live at 3pm.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

More ES futures

ES might not make it

to 1007....15min bear divergence but

thats only 50% accurate due to low

volume premarket and short timeframe

but the divergence is there

the 997 pivot seems

more reliable...just throwing out what

data i observe

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

ES futures

ES hit the 1004 and

quickly retreated....

quick analysis...i'm

not following really close since i'm at

doctors this morning till who knows

when...so take with grain of salt lol....

next 2 hours

for next 2 hrs 997

seems like pivot...over that bulls try

for higher numbers mentioned in

blog.... under that the bears press for

lower numbers

sds tza

positions for holding....at ES 1004,

1005, 1007....

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Key levels to watch in SPX: 1014, 1004, 991, 987, 979

A retracement of the advance from 978 up to 1039 is in progress.

Key levels to watch in SPX:

Horizontal support/ resistance: 1014, 1004, 991, 987, 979

Fibs: 1016, 1008, 1002, 991, 978

Fibs chart

Horizontals:

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

new positions WMT (short) and TZA

Entered today:

Short WMT 50.95

Long TZA 15.85

(Long TZA but it is an inverse ETF, so when the Russel Index goes DOWN then TZA goes UP. This is a way to short the market by buying ETFs long).

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

ES hit 992

it's interesting that ES hit 991.77 and bounced...wonder if

992 area will hold or not....

last night i posted 992 as the first downside target from yesterday's decline, expecting a bounce up and then a decline lower than 992. See post below this one for details.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

SPX bounce?

Today was certainly bearish, and points to lower levels in the coming days/weeks.

Normally we would expect a decline to 992 SPX, and then bounce to 1006, 1012, or 1017, but because the drop today was severe and fast, it's hard to tell if more downside will occur before any bounce. Last in SPX is 998. The SPX will not necessarily go straight down to 992, it can consolidate and then go to 992. Or, it can bounce up to the 1006/12/17 right from 998, but the 992 move down first would be considered "normal".

Unless the bulls exhibit unusual strength and can propel and sustain SPX over 1016, then further lows are expected below 992 after any bounce up.

How I came up with 992:

1039-1015 = 24 points

1015 - 24 = 991 expected decline, and then the bounce up to the fibs 1006 or 12 or 17

Very interesting: In the chart below, the support channel line is exactly parallel to the resistance line; I did not "make it fit". That is, I drew the R trendline from the highs, and then just drew an exact parallel line, which just "happened" to fit the lows almost exactly. This gives more credibility to the trendlines.

The chart below shows one possible path to 992 before the bounce, but we really need to just wait and see what transpires in the overnight ES, which can change things.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Downside ES SPX SPY from Head and Shoulders, as warned

Yesterday, I mentioned a possible complex Head and Shoulders bearish formation that was visible in the 60 minute SPY SPX but harder to see in the ES futures because of the overnite ES trading.

Today, the big red bar occurred right when SPX was breached at 1016. The SPX then declined to a low of 996.28

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

ES megaphone with Fib fans

Here's an update. Post below on "rectangle" is invalid. Is now a megaphone to me.

I'll use the blue fans for now. When the highest blue fan is violated then switch to the green fans.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

ES Futures 6:30 AM

ES futures

Overnight until now, the 60min put in a big red bar from 1022 to
1011, and bounced a lil off 1011.

Bullish recovery would be 1011 to to break 1015, 1019, 1022, 1025, 1031

Bearish scenario: keep the ES under 1015, 1019 to go down to 1007, 1001, 997

for the next 2 hours, the 1019 would be the key pivot point

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".