The most important numbers I see are 1064 / 1060 support and 1075 resistance.
Bearish scenario: Target of 1052/51. If 1052 breaks, SPX could go lower to 1044,1036, 1026, 1014, 1001, 992. The swing targets would be 1052, 1044, 1036.
Bullish scenario: target of 1085/89 if 1075 breaks higher and sustains.
This post is similar to Thursday's but I erased all my charts and started again for this post. This produced a similar analysis. Also note, that on Thursday I suggested that it might take 2 days for the breakout to occur.
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There are both bullish and bearish cases. I favor the bearish case, although usually, coils and triangles and consolodations will break out in the direction of the prior trend (in this case UP), but other factors negate this and muddy the waters. We have bearish candles the last two days (dojis) that are unable to close at the high. There are mild sell-offs at the close (last hourly candle). RSI and MACD suggest a pullback.
Bearish case points to a minimum first decline to 1052 as shown in 15minute chart below. It's interesting that this is close to 1053, which is what the Thurs analysis number was. When I did this chart, I started over from a clean slate without editing the previous one, and the projection remains similar.
On Thursday, I stated "The third alternative is that the coil doesn't break either higher or lower at the apex and instead resolves into a narrow range". This is exactly what happened on Friday, very narrow range day. The posts below from Wednesday and Thursday still apply so I'm using those as well to guide my decisions.
15 minute SPX chart
60 minute SPX chart below shows bullish scenario with 1085/89 target. The charts from Thursday below still apply, they show similar targets of 1087 and 1088. Although we do not know which way this will break (higher or lower) the charts are exhibiting amazing consistency, giving the same targets in various timeframes and various days.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
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