ES retraced exactly as expected so far

Right now, the post below is playing out as expected. The ES futures declined decline overnight to 1025, right near my SPX 1026 target in the post below.

2 weeks ago I also expected a reversal at 1044, which has happened at 1043.75 thus far.

However, we will have to see if the ES remains below the trendline, or if it rallies higher before the 9:30AM equities opening bell today.

Key Pivot I see for next few hours is ES 1036. Under 1036, ES is bearish, over 1036 it begins to become bullish and negate the fall from 1043.75 to 1025. If ES stays under 1031, that would be very bearish.

Bullish scenario: ES rallies and breaks over 1031 for a target of 1036. If 1036 breaks then expect 1038, 1041, 1044, 1053, 1062.

Bearish scenario: ES stays under 1031 (or 1036 at most). Test the prior low of 1023 and 1018, 1016, 1012,

1044 -- prior significant high.
1028 -- prior high, breakout point #2 when ES went to 1044.
1022 -- Daly MA 20
1004 -- breakout point #1 when ES went to 1044.
991 --  prior significant low.
983  -- Daily MA 50

991 to 1044 move up: right now, the ES retraced close to 1026, close to the 38% (1024) of that move. It could bounce back from there and continue up past 1044. Or, it can retrace to 1011 (62%). A sustained break under 1011 would suggest a test of 991. Also, if 1011 breaks lower, it is probable that 991 will also break lower for a test of 983.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".