Overnight ES futures

First, the scenarios:

Bullish scenario:  IF ES breaks over 1025 and sustains over 1025, then test 1027, 1030, 1035, 1038, 1044, 1053.
.

Bearish scenario: IF ES stays under 1025 then test 1019, 1016, 1009, 999, 991.

Now, the details:

FIBS and Horizontal Support / Resistance
The ES retraced 23% and a 38% retracement would be 1020. Other fibs lower are 1015 (50%), 1009 (62%), 1001 (78%), 991 (100%).

Horizontal supports:     991, 999, 1016, 1019, 1025, 

Horizontal resistance:  1035, 1038, 1044, 1053

Chart commentary

The blue lines are fib fans, and technically the trend is still up for the Friday--Thurs period. It can retrace to the lowest Fib line and still be "up". A break under the third blue line would indicate the Friday upmove is over.

The three yellow lines are trendlines that I drew that touch multiple lows. Although the Fib blue fans allow for lower prices to be considered "up", the violation of the lowest yellow line (#3) signals an end to the Friday--Thrus upmove IF the ES stays under it. Right now, as I write this, it is only a marginal violoation, so let's observe as the day progresses and see if the third yellow line holds as Resistance.

The MACD and RSI show the Negative Divergences in the ES which caused the current retracement down.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".