345
1085 spx pattern target... last 1076
342
it looks like up into the close...
342
there is a poss bear flag now in xlf grrr... but other things prompt me to stay long the xlf
305
xlf test of its UTL 60min chart has held thus far...this is testing it.... still ok there
302
i will hold the xlf... i still see no tech damage... have take partial proftis on it to cover any losses...its not down much, did not break yest low
247
thats not today's sso...thats only down a lil... thats the swing sso from other day
246
grr sso is down 2.9%
242
xlf is backtesting and hitting the prior trendline now...holding so far
225
of course spx could get a lower low lol
224
spx has lower hi, higher low thus far today.... but xlf has HIGHER hi, higher low (vs yest)
223
yes etfguy me too...thats the UP in the down up down pattern from b4...we got the first down
215
oops...filled at .16 not .17 sry... i did a mkt order at .17
214
3606 vs 3617...molstly to reduce risk .. the second sso buy did its job at 3602
213
selling half sso here 3617 to reduce risk,,,take a lil profit...lotsa shares
208
bought fas 7180
204
3615 first trgt
203
ok paying premium for sso... in at 3602
159
missed the fill by one cent...hit 3692
155
limit buy sso 3591... expecting sso 3588
154
this is the "down" in that down up down pattern from b4....sso last 3606
137
the triple diverg bullish in sso 15min has a good chance of breaking sso 36.40 for .80 ...for the daytrade pos
135
3min sso since noon... has mini up channel... with testing the support line rite now
130
also, if the sso manages to test the upper R dtl from the down channel, a 5/15 Moving Avg bull cross will likely occurr... 60min
128
coupled with the inverse bear flag (bullish) there is reasonable expectation of higher spx
127
notice the slope of the rsi lows on 60min sso
125
60min sso has decent double bull divergence ... would take 1-3 days to fullfill its potential
112
xlf is now lagging the sso in 3min.... see if the xlf can pop... however it also held better on the rush down...
112
3min bull flag sso.. 3680ish target
111
the 2min
has an asc triabgle..target 3680ish
110
the sso 15min chart is exhibiting a down up down up type pattern...
107
now sso chart pattern measure to 3652...which just so happens to be near that broken dtl
103
sso wwill hit broken up trendline R at 3651 if it gets there for another baktest
100
look at sso 60min chart. big candle r red...small ones green... that is bearish,,, bull need to put in a large green candle
1258
if 3620ish holds
1257
multiple scenarios do suggest sso 3608ish area ... to hit that 3681 trgt
1256
scalpers with large pos could take 20 cents here profit
1256
3641 sso R... last 3635
1255
3636 hit...one cent of 3637 target from sso entry (first target)...then stalled
1253
hit that target
1251
sso 3632 chart pattern target.
1252
complex HS setting up in 3min spx if bulls dont break it.... 2 left shoulders, head....
1251
spx 3min has bull diverg and a bull rsi swing failure. i remain long sso.
1246
poss bear HS formin in xlf 10min...wathcing it
1237
3637 and 3681 sso targets....to start
1235
sso early entry to a bull crouching tiger 82% confid
1233
sso buying at 3614 for daytrade
1218
also, took profits up near the high today on 50% on the small port... so gains locked there
1218
even xlf long at highest avg price (1433) is green now... nervous xlf longs could exit here breakeven or small profit... i will stay in
1209
furthere, there r bull divergence in 60 min
1204
the 60min chart does have one ominous thing for bears... notice on the 60min chart there is an INVERSE bear flag... its pointing down not up... this is often a sign of the end of a move (in this case, move down).... in fact this is a pattern that i used to successfully SHORT during the uptrend, before it crashed....)
conversely one could argue its just a down channel there, which is a reasonable view too
1200
that is very bearish intraday
1200
what i just saw... spx broke its intraday UTL support, backtested, failed, bounced rite off the line
1157
if the charts looked different, i wouldn't even have a problem shorting momentum near the low of day (if unable to get in higher).. . BUT for me, those charts are not suggesting that type of momentum trade at all (from swing perspective not daytrade view)
1156
for mid term i am bearish... i am sounding bullish only cuz playing an expected move up
1154
and moreso for xlf
1154
today i think we should know much bettter ... watching for the 15 60 daily to align... i'm thinking the 15mintue spx finishes up its downside games, re-aligns bullishly with spx, and we go up
1148
despite the move down, 60min xlf is actually bullish now still.. no tech damage in the xlf .. right now, xlf is just shifting around, whipsaw, still see no prob long the xlf... will exit if things change
1145
charts still suggest up for coming days, to me,,, BUT i think today we will get our answer and resolution as to direction in coming days... the chart patterns look like they will clarify today... because the 15 and 60 and daily should realign... then we have a better picture. still open to either long or short, with bias still for a bounce in the coming 1-3 days
1137
what i'm looking at .... will sso put in a lower low here, then pivot to make a high over 37, then over 3731.. or will a lower high come in and continue down.... for now, chart still suggest more up (at least from here) in the coming days...
1136
nice day for daytrading scalping ...nice movement,,, but i'm just chillin instead, watching the swings,,, half in and out
1135
this "looks bad" but sso holding... seeing up after the decline...
1133
xlf over 14.23 is ok ....last 14.33
1114
spx held R at DTL 60 min...coil now forming....
1112
from a swing perspectigve.... holding the xlf sso still
1049
there is an xlf wick once cent from my target from yest... 1557
1045
but i'll short any failures...
1044
pattern on spx would be trgt 1119
1043
1473 is the xlf target,,, but 1511 is now in the realm of poss on a bollinger band break pattern (not just boll band, other indicators too
1042
a break AND CLOSE above is required...........
1041
wow also at boll band 60min R... dail R boll band is 15.60... both boll bands (15 n 60) in same R suggests potential very powerful move in the direction of the break (in this case up, for now)
1039
xlf rite at boll band R here.... 15min oonly... but the boll bands are range bound rect flat, not up or down trend... thus a momentum play is long over the band piercing. If they were wide bands, sloped, then opposite.... some stall here normal
1036
and i'll keep the rest xlf for 14.78
1036
SELLING small port 50% here for 1%/3%,,,2%/6% profit. lock in the gains
1035
3731,,, 3752 sso first targets... last 3692
1032
1553 stall expected in xlf.... the .58 limit is intended to catch the overflow if it pierces HOD as shorts cover and i sell into their strenght
1031
yes. thus far, analysis 100% on for the day here.
1031
if xlf does NOT stall at 14.61 i would be surprised....
1029
1100 likely will find sellers... but charts suggest even higher
1028
limit sell 50% small port 14.58
1027
swings in xlf /faz can take profits here...i'm holding... 1%/3% profit for 1433,,,, 2%/6% for 1414 (approx)
1024
YES. filled....1458 next in xlf
1023
grr hit 1447 exactly...no fill on the xlf
1022
awesome. 1447 filled
1021
xlf from 1414 is at
2% profit (6% faz)
xlf from 1433 is
lower prof
profit there only .07 %... 2.1%
1017
YES XLF cancelling xlf .44
order//// and taking the .47
next if able instead].. yest missed by one
cent...not happening again
i still expect the .47
.58
1013
lol i'm sticking with up... intraday charts suggest that to me... for today not necessarily for next 10min... from swing perspective suggests hold them for now 1-3 days
1011
if 1088 holds on this test it would be signif intraday and suggest another higher hi intraday... if
1009
bull crouching tiger setting up in xlf... 82% confid
1002
xlf 15min still has cup handle bullish. target 14.68
1000
IF spx does a test of 1100, and it hurdles over it... then a retest of todays LOD is not likely... but thats an if thats far away
957
chart suggest at least an 1100 test, to me... last spx 1091
955
XLF: i still have limit sell (partial positino only, large port) at 1444 1447 1458. Small port, doing manually, riding up until chart suggest exit long
955
1446 next xlf target...hope that fill my limit partial sell 1444
955
spx 1088 must hold...pref 1090... for next 1 hour
951
spx 1100 and 1104 next targets if 1094 can break higher...
950
yes. as suggested below.... in any event... 2 minutes later... the spx did make new HOD... but watching to see if it can break the R higher
948
that drop at the open is prob just the MarketMaker test...they like to do that... to see if mkt is strong or weak for the day initally
947
marginal break higher..this doesnt count...needs to sustain
946
purely from a tech perspective, charts say it will break higher, imho
944
yes. and there it is. one minute later. a new HOD.
943
ok... usually this setup... suggests daytrade long... the high is not in usually......last 1089,,, the MM tested support and it held, will usually take it higher
939
spx.........if 1087 hold i expect 1092 to break higher... short up there...but long first for daytrades
927
futures are up nicely...up 7 points...
i did mention yest... thought the report would be better... the price action yesterday suggested it .. is why i stayed long sso xlf even tho i was "worried" about the report... went with the technicals which said "stay long"
804 am
ES futures declined overnight and hit new recent low of 1070.50 and bounced up. now at 1084. to start with, charts suggest a move up to 1089.75, if they can hold over 1074 preferably 1078. But of course the morning reports could change all of that easily.
I'm still expecting higher levels in ES SPX in the coming 1-4 days, and am currently long SSO and XLF still.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Friday, January 29, 2010
Thursday, January 28, 2010
thurs ramblings (and Wednesday eve / Thurs morning pre-market ES )
352
xlf made a higher high. higher low today. daily chrt
348
still no tech damage to xlf...
345
i'm holding onto xlf overnight... charts suggesst unfinished business on the upside....15 60 even some daily aspect
343
xlf is forming a daily hammer candle...bullish.. 1317 is ok... the best close is over 1441 xlf
340
LOL limit sell missed by one cent...grrr
340
hit the 1092 impt #
339
xlf 3min doing good
338
spx 3min weakening.... still bias up
336
hovering at the R implies break higher not lower....a
336
inability to headfake down suggests more up...they didnt bring down
335
theres a mildly strong 4 bar upchannel spx 15min chart
333
this 1090 is tough R tho... needs vol to crack it higher... 1099.50 spx
possible on a 1090 break
330
xlf 1 2 3 min charts all bullish still....could crack anytime tho
329
xlf wick to 14.53, close to my other llimit 1458
328
an xlf close over 1441 would be good for both xlf and spx
327
spx and xlf rather strong intraday here... could fall.... still see up...but fall caution
326
2 cents away from first limit sell 1444
325
during the decline... the rsi for xlf managed to stay well above its support line, not even close to testing it (bullish)
324
not sure i would even classify it as a coil anymore (bullish)
323
that coil in xlf is dissipating... xlf managed to stay in the top half of the triangl so it is now malformed,,, decreasing likelyhood that its a bear penna
322
purely from a tech view... i see UP HIGHER into the close clearly.. ... but a big volume move could destroy that... signals less relaiable last hours....
319
xlf over 1425 would be very bullish...idk if it can hold it...into the close, that is
316
10min immature bull cup handl in xlf
315
sso tagged 3660 and backed down... 11 cents short of 3671ish
314
charts still say UP to me....into the close.......but volume moves override the charts
313
xlf unable to break the R in the coil... first try....
312
IF xlf can break the coil.. a move up then down, then up i would expect.... would prob get a rather quick backtest back down
310
ok........xlf is RIGHT AT the coil R line.....heres the test, with volume.... perfect touch...last 1439
308
sso next target 3671...last 3649
307
xlf limit orders still in place to catch this... 1444 1447 1458...partial shares... no lim order for small port (manual)
306
xlf on the move....up .... it never hit the .17 area lower... :)
303
well xlf still looks good overnite to me, if it closes with charts looking this way. for course, could be rad diff in next 58min
257
sso has a target somewhere near 3680/90 if it breaks 3640ish (eyeball,,not precise calc)
254
xlf 3min charts suggesting UP
251
still got the xlf limit orders to sell partial shares.... 1444, 1447, 1458... smaller port, no limit order
250
that 1090/92 area was critical yesterday tooo... with the 15min candle close over 1091
249
bears are ok with spx under 1092//// above that...watch out
248
an xlf close over 1439 would be nice for swing long xlf position
246
conversely the spx does have a bullish falling wedge in the 60min... with a marginal break higher in it
244
xlf still in this coill..... poss bear pennant.. for those scared by that...could exit profitably here lol.. i remain in the xlf
243
xlf still in this coill.....
239
swings xlf can still exit now breakeven.... daytrades from 1414 can still take profits about 1% here (or 3% if using a 3x etf)
235
if xlf can hold 1423ish... it should propel up to its next target at 1444
233
i'd like to see xlf break higher out of this coil if keeping overnight, else this could turn intao a nasty bear pennant... !!!
226
SPX 60min shows a clear downchannel. Also the break of 1090ish was a rectangle break that measure to 1077ish... and it hit 1078 and did a minor bounce. often, this will result in a test of the DTL resistance line, currently at 1092.50 spx. thus, a test of 1090 (horizon R) or 1092 "should" happen.. last 1085
220
the 1% xlf profits would be about 3% faz... i prefer to simply buy 3x number of xlf shares for same dollar profit, less percent (same result)
219
but a 1417 hold is preferable lol
218
xlf forming a coil that suggests 1413 possible...
203
that technique is short when stoch < 20... buy >80.. only when FIRST
ENTERING the 20/80.. futures traders use
that a lot.. to scalp or catch
momentum bursts
but other conditions
must be met too...to validate it
158
boso works best if day trend up, 60min up, 15min down reversing up... then buy at the stoch 85 in 15min... we dont have that here
154
for those that like BOSO method ...its now on the 15min.... to go long xlf... i'm not adding more
151
those not holding xlf for 1-4 days could sell half up here at 1437
150
lots of R in spx around here..... watching for fall....but stilll no short sig
149
so limit sell xlf pieces at 1444, 1447, 1458....
148
limit sell some xlf 1444...14447...
146
1minute xlf strengthening....
144
1443 spike expected in 7 minutes xlf... last 1439
143
limit sell a piece 14.58 xlf... lots of R there....
140
compare daily xlf candle to sso... xlf stronger
138
looking for daytrade short...no signal yet for me...
137
a drop to xlf 1417 would be painful to watch but not inflict any tech damange//// last 1434
135
IF XLF can make a higher high today then it will have a valid 60min upchannel and a 123 trend reversal
134
are the daytrade bears thinking "oh no...not a repeat of yesterday...??? move up???"
133
yea i thought about GS but didnt want overnite risk in that... xlf a lil safer
132
i expected a stall n move down first in xlf...that was easy.. elling more
daytrade up here 1439 into strghtn
131
ok filled ... 14.14 to 14.34 = 1.01%...or 3.03% using faz or 3x etf
129
it should be hitting 1435 to fill my 1434...grrr
127
1min chart weaker.... scalpers would take someprofit here 1431 or stop .29
126
selling a piece limit 1434 if filled
125
daytrade... still no
exit signal from the 1414 buy
122
took partial profits
122
grabbed 1% on a piece of the daytrade xlf... 1414 buy selll...1429a
121
preparing to take profit of 1-1.5% on the daytrade entry from 1414
120
2min chart says
"scalpers dont take profits yet" in
xlf.... over 1424 good
123
1435 stall in xlf is fine.. last 1430...moving up :) oh yea :)
115
ideally xlf will hold 1417 support.... 1424 last
114
the 133t chart mini target xlf pattern is about 1430ish...eyeball not precise
112
i'm starting to get a second double confirmation swing long xlf...not confirmed but forming... based on 20 indicators, and a landscape of 8 timeframes of the same symbol
109
again... another chance...nervous xlf can exit here breakeven or small profit... i'm staying...
107
xlf near the 15min boll band midpoint Resistance now... stall expected here, even pullback...
102
xlf tagged 1427 target exactly and backed off... still watching for reaction here
101
will prob get the1087... 3min suggests 1086
100pm
if 1428 breaks... momentum up...bak to 1435 next
1259
1424 to 1417 drop here would be ok....
1258
the .27 is not a limit order...may sell higher... manually
1257
NERVOUS XLF can exit here near breakeven, or at breakeven soon.... i'm staying in for now... only reducing risk selling a piece at .27 breakeven
1256
rather strong intraday here in xlf 1424/28
1255
yes. there it goes...broke the .21.. still needs .24....1428
1254
charts suggest 89% confidence the .21 will break higher,,,to me... last .20
1253
i will reduce risk at 1426-28ish (breakeven) due to large position.. will sell some of the xlf there
1252
1424 1428 msjor hurdles for xlf to get over higher
1251
a break of .21 xlf should pop it up with momen.. last 14.17
1250
xlf is still acting as expected...why i bought more... and daytrade signal at the 1414
1258
xlf avg cost 14.27... 75% position... i might not make the 4th buy
1246
xlf 25% more...buy 3of maybe 4... in at 14.14
1207
xlf 60min rsi is still above its support uptrend line... almost doing a perfect touch test of it now... watching to see reaction at the trendline....
1205
that buy sso at spx 1077 was only valid for yest.. i cancelled that ... i prefer xlf for any longs now
1204
*bullish HS below
1204
if short, watching for poss inv HS formation in spx 15 and 60 min (only poss, only half formed)
1158
post at 1157 --- i'm only bullish for next 1-4 days
1157
i'm bearish mid term... but still bullish for a move up from this mess... these charts have the setup of "shorts are valid, but entry here will get whipsawed out and trapped short-term"... if there is a sustained break under the trendline from AUg then I'd become bearish short term as well as bear mid-term
1150
if the xlf trade setup premise breaks, i'll take a loss.. thus far, the premise is still valid, for me
1148
xlf has a wick to 1428---not sure if it means anything...last 1417
1138
SPX just marginally pierced it uptrend support line from august... watching for the reaction here... could fall further then backtest,,, or could hold.. last 1078.50 spx
1128
xlf 3min has developed a nasty looking chart... HS type thing... see if support holds that potential onslaught
1125
SPY 15min is setting up a triple bullish diverg .. of course vol could blast right thru it, but its there
1121
sso down 2%,,,, xlf down 1% (unrealized loss)
1119
xlf could go lower....the 3min charts are starting to show a bottoming process tho... last 14.20
1115
I have a mental stop on xlf at yesterday's low around 14.00.... i will not exit the trade just because it hits that #, but if it does not hold there, i will re-eval at that time. Don't like using hard stops because can get whipsawed out.
i do have hard stop order with broker at 12.97 for now...but thats just in case of an emergency (where the broker is down and i can't enter an order).
1040
1106 first spx trgt
1113 1120
1038
xlf 60min chart .... target 14.83 ... last 14.34... with stalls in between... higher than 1483 poss but thats first trgt .. a 3.7% move to start
1036
my work suggests at least one more pop up in xlf... last 1428
1034
38.86 sso possible in coming days if it holds 36.50ish ... last 3663
1032
near boll band midpoint support in spx xlf.... spx 1090 last... 15minchart
1020
i bought more at 1428 cuz 1427 is a support level.... of course it could break,,, but bought some there
1019
xlf down 0.42% today vs down 0.67 spx
1014
the 60min XLF chart among other things... looks good swing setup ... rsi trendlines, macd, far away from DTL (plenty of room up to test DTL around 1493ish)... nice stoch, good price action, respecting support/res
1014
the xlf is swing... so spending some time in the red zone is ok....
1010
if xlf breaks 1423 it could drop quik
1010
25% more xlf here at 14.29
1007
looking at more xlf....
1005
ok sso at 3664 here near the 3661....see how it reacts
1005
considering SRS too... maybe 7.72
1003
TBT is setting up a bearish diverg that should push prices lower, back into a possible buy zone... looking at maybe 47.76,,,, 4727
958
forget sso.... i'll re-invest longs in xlf... chart seems better, surprisingly enough
955
at this moment, wiht these charts, i plan to hold these as swings sso xlf....of courtse if charts change by 3pm i'll exit
954
i want more sso but am waiting for it to slow down b4 adding more.... see if 1091 breaks ES... see if sso drops to 3668ish
953
xlf did a marginal break of its steep accelerated trendline,,, but i'm still bullish... the trendline was steep and not expected to maintain that level,,, and it is only marginal brk
948
in some xlf at 1437 .. starter position... 25%
946
3668 sso... will prob buy if it hits that... unsure
944
sold a piece of sso 3696 (scalp.. like a 2pt es).. took quik scalp profit... holding rest... will not post all scalps here,,,,
943
in 3686 sso....took some at 1091ish ES
942
1091 ES held first test....
940
1091 ES test coming... see if bounces
938
xlf is holding up much better than spx....
938
es 1094 broek.... 1091 next supp
933
ES testing first level support now 1095. then 1091 next S. ES not SPX
931
still have some of the
sso swing from few days ago...sold
most yest but kept 25%
930
xlf--- has gapped up OVER resistance 1444.... started watching that one yest. see if it holds support and over the gap.
8:54AM
ES 1091 is an important support area, with 1095 hold preferred. I'll be watching the action, looking to ADD to my SSO longs (and QQQQ, etc as menioned in post below). It's possible that the 1091/95 areas might be a good place to add SSO, but I'll wait to see what the charts look like when they hit there. Other buy/sell targets to follow later ....
8:52 AM
Yesterday Summary (Wednesday)
Technical Analysis is working. We got the hammer, the 1091 candle, and the start of an advance up.
Remember that 1091/92 area that I mentioned repeatedly yesterday? Needing a candle to close over it to show bullishness? We got the candle close on the 15min, and it was all up from that point on.
On several occassions yesterday I called for a hammer daily candle, which we did get. The high was also close to target (within 3 cents on SSO i believe).
Also yesterday the "swing long" setup / signals triggered, prompting me to hold some SSO overnight (I took profits on most of the SSO due to uncertainty of the reports this morning). Right now, SSO is up, having hit about 37.52 pre-market (from 3702 close yest)
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
xlf made a higher high. higher low today. daily chrt
348
still no tech damage to xlf...
345
i'm holding onto xlf overnight... charts suggesst unfinished business on the upside....15 60 even some daily aspect
343
xlf is forming a daily hammer candle...bullish.. 1317 is ok... the best close is over 1441 xlf
340
LOL limit sell missed by one cent...grrr
340
hit the 1092 impt #
339
xlf 3min doing good
338
spx 3min weakening.... still bias up
336
hovering at the R implies break higher not lower....a
336
inability to headfake down suggests more up...they didnt bring down
335
theres a mildly strong 4 bar upchannel spx 15min chart
333
this 1090 is tough R tho... needs vol to crack it higher... 1099.50 spx
possible on a 1090 break
330
xlf 1 2 3 min charts all bullish still....could crack anytime tho
329
xlf wick to 14.53, close to my other llimit 1458
328
an xlf close over 1441 would be good for both xlf and spx
327
spx and xlf rather strong intraday here... could fall.... still see up...but fall caution
326
2 cents away from first limit sell 1444
325
during the decline... the rsi for xlf managed to stay well above its support line, not even close to testing it (bullish)
324
not sure i would even classify it as a coil anymore (bullish)
323
that coil in xlf is dissipating... xlf managed to stay in the top half of the triangl so it is now malformed,,, decreasing likelyhood that its a bear penna
322
purely from a tech view... i see UP HIGHER into the close clearly.. ... but a big volume move could destroy that... signals less relaiable last hours....
319
xlf over 1425 would be very bullish...idk if it can hold it...into the close, that is
316
10min immature bull cup handl in xlf
315
sso tagged 3660 and backed down... 11 cents short of 3671ish
314
charts still say UP to me....into the close.......but volume moves override the charts
313
xlf unable to break the R in the coil... first try....
312
IF xlf can break the coil.. a move up then down, then up i would expect.... would prob get a rather quick backtest back down
310
ok........xlf is RIGHT AT the coil R line.....heres the test, with volume.... perfect touch...last 1439
308
sso next target 3671...last 3649
307
xlf limit orders still in place to catch this... 1444 1447 1458...partial shares... no lim order for small port (manual)
306
xlf on the move....up .... it never hit the .17 area lower... :)
303
well xlf still looks good overnite to me, if it closes with charts looking this way. for course, could be rad diff in next 58min
257
sso has a target somewhere near 3680/90 if it breaks 3640ish (eyeball,,not precise calc)
254
xlf 3min charts suggesting UP
251
still got the xlf limit orders to sell partial shares.... 1444, 1447, 1458... smaller port, no limit order
250
that 1090/92 area was critical yesterday tooo... with the 15min candle close over 1091
249
bears are ok with spx under 1092//// above that...watch out
248
an xlf close over 1439 would be nice for swing long xlf position
246
conversely the spx does have a bullish falling wedge in the 60min... with a marginal break higher in it
244
xlf still in this coill..... poss bear pennant.. for those scared by that...could exit profitably here lol.. i remain in the xlf
243
xlf still in this coill.....
239
swings xlf can still exit now breakeven.... daytrades from 1414 can still take profits about 1% here (or 3% if using a 3x etf)
235
if xlf can hold 1423ish... it should propel up to its next target at 1444
233
i'd like to see xlf break higher out of this coil if keeping overnight, else this could turn intao a nasty bear pennant... !!!
226
SPX 60min shows a clear downchannel. Also the break of 1090ish was a rectangle break that measure to 1077ish... and it hit 1078 and did a minor bounce. often, this will result in a test of the DTL resistance line, currently at 1092.50 spx. thus, a test of 1090 (horizon R) or 1092 "should" happen.. last 1085
220
the 1% xlf profits would be about 3% faz... i prefer to simply buy 3x number of xlf shares for same dollar profit, less percent (same result)
219
but a 1417 hold is preferable lol
218
xlf forming a coil that suggests 1413 possible...
203
that technique is short when stoch < 20... buy >80.. only when FIRST
ENTERING the 20/80.. futures traders use
that a lot.. to scalp or catch
momentum bursts
but other conditions
must be met too...to validate it
158
boso works best if day trend up, 60min up, 15min down reversing up... then buy at the stoch 85 in 15min... we dont have that here
154
for those that like BOSO method ...its now on the 15min.... to go long xlf... i'm not adding more
151
those not holding xlf for 1-4 days could sell half up here at 1437
150
lots of R in spx around here..... watching for fall....but stilll no short sig
149
so limit sell xlf pieces at 1444, 1447, 1458....
148
limit sell some xlf 1444...14447...
146
1minute xlf strengthening....
144
1443 spike expected in 7 minutes xlf... last 1439
143
limit sell a piece 14.58 xlf... lots of R there....
140
compare daily xlf candle to sso... xlf stronger
138
looking for daytrade short...no signal yet for me...
137
a drop to xlf 1417 would be painful to watch but not inflict any tech damange//// last 1434
135
IF XLF can make a higher high today then it will have a valid 60min upchannel and a 123 trend reversal
134
are the daytrade bears thinking "oh no...not a repeat of yesterday...??? move up???"
133
yea i thought about GS but didnt want overnite risk in that... xlf a lil safer
132
i expected a stall n move down first in xlf...that was easy.. elling more
daytrade up here 1439 into strghtn
131
ok filled ... 14.14 to 14.34 = 1.01%...or 3.03% using faz or 3x etf
129
it should be hitting 1435 to fill my 1434...grrr
127
1min chart weaker.... scalpers would take someprofit here 1431 or stop .29
126
selling a piece limit 1434 if filled
125
daytrade... still no
exit signal from the 1414 buy
122
took partial profits
122
grabbed 1% on a piece of the daytrade xlf... 1414 buy selll...1429a
121
preparing to take profit of 1-1.5% on the daytrade entry from 1414
120
2min chart says
"scalpers dont take profits yet" in
xlf.... over 1424 good
123
1435 stall in xlf is fine.. last 1430...moving up :) oh yea :)
115
ideally xlf will hold 1417 support.... 1424 last
114
the 133t chart mini target xlf pattern is about 1430ish...eyeball not precise
112
i'm starting to get a second double confirmation swing long xlf...not confirmed but forming... based on 20 indicators, and a landscape of 8 timeframes of the same symbol
109
again... another chance...nervous xlf can exit here breakeven or small profit... i'm staying...
107
xlf near the 15min boll band midpoint Resistance now... stall expected here, even pullback...
102
xlf tagged 1427 target exactly and backed off... still watching for reaction here
101
will prob get the1087... 3min suggests 1086
100pm
if 1428 breaks... momentum up...bak to 1435 next
1259
1424 to 1417 drop here would be ok....
1258
the .27 is not a limit order...may sell higher... manually
1257
NERVOUS XLF can exit here near breakeven, or at breakeven soon.... i'm staying in for now... only reducing risk selling a piece at .27 breakeven
1256
rather strong intraday here in xlf 1424/28
1255
yes. there it goes...broke the .21.. still needs .24....1428
1254
charts suggest 89% confidence the .21 will break higher,,,to me... last .20
1253
i will reduce risk at 1426-28ish (breakeven) due to large position.. will sell some of the xlf there
1252
1424 1428 msjor hurdles for xlf to get over higher
1251
a break of .21 xlf should pop it up with momen.. last 14.17
1250
xlf is still acting as expected...why i bought more... and daytrade signal at the 1414
1258
xlf avg cost 14.27... 75% position... i might not make the 4th buy
1246
xlf 25% more...buy 3of maybe 4... in at 14.14
1207
xlf 60min rsi is still above its support uptrend line... almost doing a perfect touch test of it now... watching to see reaction at the trendline....
1205
that buy sso at spx 1077 was only valid for yest.. i cancelled that ... i prefer xlf for any longs now
1204
*bullish HS below
1204
if short, watching for poss inv HS formation in spx 15 and 60 min (only poss, only half formed)
1158
post at 1157 --- i'm only bullish for next 1-4 days
1157
i'm bearish mid term... but still bullish for a move up from this mess... these charts have the setup of "shorts are valid, but entry here will get whipsawed out and trapped short-term"... if there is a sustained break under the trendline from AUg then I'd become bearish short term as well as bear mid-term
1150
if the xlf trade setup premise breaks, i'll take a loss.. thus far, the premise is still valid, for me
1148
xlf has a wick to 1428---not sure if it means anything...last 1417
1138
SPX just marginally pierced it uptrend support line from august... watching for the reaction here... could fall further then backtest,,, or could hold.. last 1078.50 spx
1128
xlf 3min has developed a nasty looking chart... HS type thing... see if support holds that potential onslaught
1125
SPY 15min is setting up a triple bullish diverg .. of course vol could blast right thru it, but its there
1121
sso down 2%,,,, xlf down 1% (unrealized loss)
1119
xlf could go lower....the 3min charts are starting to show a bottoming process tho... last 14.20
1115
I have a mental stop on xlf at yesterday's low around 14.00.... i will not exit the trade just because it hits that #, but if it does not hold there, i will re-eval at that time. Don't like using hard stops because can get whipsawed out.
i do have hard stop order with broker at 12.97 for now...but thats just in case of an emergency (where the broker is down and i can't enter an order).
1040
1106 first spx trgt
1113 1120
1038
xlf 60min chart .... target 14.83 ... last 14.34... with stalls in between... higher than 1483 poss but thats first trgt .. a 3.7% move to start
1036
my work suggests at least one more pop up in xlf... last 1428
1034
38.86 sso possible in coming days if it holds 36.50ish ... last 3663
1032
near boll band midpoint support in spx xlf.... spx 1090 last... 15minchart
1020
i bought more at 1428 cuz 1427 is a support level.... of course it could break,,, but bought some there
1019
xlf down 0.42% today vs down 0.67 spx
1014
the 60min XLF chart among other things... looks good swing setup ... rsi trendlines, macd, far away from DTL (plenty of room up to test DTL around 1493ish)... nice stoch, good price action, respecting support/res
1014
the xlf is swing... so spending some time in the red zone is ok....
1010
if xlf breaks 1423 it could drop quik
1010
25% more xlf here at 14.29
1007
looking at more xlf....
1005
ok sso at 3664 here near the 3661....see how it reacts
1005
considering SRS too... maybe 7.72
1003
TBT is setting up a bearish diverg that should push prices lower, back into a possible buy zone... looking at maybe 47.76,,,, 4727
958
forget sso.... i'll re-invest longs in xlf... chart seems better, surprisingly enough
955
at this moment, wiht these charts, i plan to hold these as swings sso xlf....of courtse if charts change by 3pm i'll exit
954
i want more sso but am waiting for it to slow down b4 adding more.... see if 1091 breaks ES... see if sso drops to 3668ish
953
xlf did a marginal break of its steep accelerated trendline,,, but i'm still bullish... the trendline was steep and not expected to maintain that level,,, and it is only marginal brk
948
in some xlf at 1437 .. starter position... 25%
946
3668 sso... will prob buy if it hits that... unsure
944
sold a piece of sso 3696 (scalp.. like a 2pt es).. took quik scalp profit... holding rest... will not post all scalps here,,,,
943
in 3686 sso....took some at 1091ish ES
942
1091 ES held first test....
940
1091 ES test coming... see if bounces
938
xlf is holding up much better than spx....
938
es 1094 broek.... 1091 next supp
933
ES testing first level support now 1095. then 1091 next S. ES not SPX
931
still have some of the
sso swing from few days ago...sold
most yest but kept 25%
930
xlf--- has gapped up OVER resistance 1444.... started watching that one yest. see if it holds support and over the gap.
8:54AM
ES 1091 is an important support area, with 1095 hold preferred. I'll be watching the action, looking to ADD to my SSO longs (and QQQQ, etc as menioned in post below). It's possible that the 1091/95 areas might be a good place to add SSO, but I'll wait to see what the charts look like when they hit there. Other buy/sell targets to follow later ....
8:52 AM
Yesterday Summary (Wednesday)
Technical Analysis is working. We got the hammer, the 1091 candle, and the start of an advance up.
Remember that 1091/92 area that I mentioned repeatedly yesterday? Needing a candle to close over it to show bullishness? We got the candle close on the 15min, and it was all up from that point on.
On several occassions yesterday I called for a hammer daily candle, which we did get. The high was also close to target (within 3 cents on SSO i believe).
Also yesterday the "swing long" setup / signals triggered, prompting me to hold some SSO overnight (I took profits on most of the SSO due to uncertainty of the reports this morning). Right now, SSO is up, having hit about 37.52 pre-market (from 3702 close yest)
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
XLF quick charts
I'm looking at several XLF charts... i am long from 14.29/38....
Here are 2 of them
Double click on the chart for a better view.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Here are 2 of them
Double click on the chart for a better view.
Trading ideas (swing) long and short
More details to follow, with rationale, reasons, etc,,, but here's what I see right now
Right now, I'm LONG SSO (SPX) and LONG DDM (DOW). But I want to add MORE longs, unless charts change of course.
SPX 1085 then 1030
I believe that SPX will break 1085 and then hit 1030.
SPX 1113/ 1120 / 1130
BUT before that plunge, I expect a rally up first, to 1113/1120 area. Yes, I've added a second target of 1120.. could even see 1130. More precise target later, forthcoming...
VIX backtest down (could hit as low as 19). More precise target later, forthcoming...
TODAY I did post (in Ramblings below) that I got a swing LONG setup and signal... details later... but this setup consists of chart patterns as well as about 20 indicators.
TRADING PLAN
Trading plan - swings 1-4 days... I expect the Friday report (next week) to be bad so will probably exit any longs before then. Also, these rally swing long positions also have a 1-4 date period before the fizzle, so that aligns also.
Here's what I'm looking at for new trades:
LONG QQQQ
LONG SSO
LONG XLF??? (NEEDS more analysis)
LONG TBT (but may not be ready to buy tomorrow)
SHORT VXX
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Right now, I'm LONG SSO (SPX) and LONG DDM (DOW). But I want to add MORE longs, unless charts change of course.
SPX 1085 then 1030
I believe that SPX will break 1085 and then hit 1030.
SPX 1113/ 1120 / 1130
BUT before that plunge, I expect a rally up first, to 1113/1120 area. Yes, I've added a second target of 1120.. could even see 1130. More precise target later, forthcoming...
VIX backtest down (could hit as low as 19). More precise target later, forthcoming...
TODAY I did post (in Ramblings below) that I got a swing LONG setup and signal... details later... but this setup consists of chart patterns as well as about 20 indicators.
DOW 10,450 (more precise target later)
I'm already long the DOW from 10,200 as previously posted. I shorted the DOW near 10,725 and then covered those shorts at 10,200 and then immediately reversed long at 10,200 (using DXD and DDM)
TRADING PLAN
Trading plan - swings 1-4 days... I expect the Friday report (next week) to be bad so will probably exit any longs before then. Also, these rally swing long positions also have a 1-4 date period before the fizzle, so that aligns also.
Here's what I'm looking at for new trades:
LONG QQQQ
LONG SSO
LONG XLF??? (NEEDS more analysis)
LONG TBT (but may not be ready to buy tomorrow)
SHORT VXX
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Wedn ramblings (and Tues eve ES futures)
401
i'm gonna look into xlf tomorrow
401
true zhou... i'm thinking 1487 xlf on a break over 1444
353
1106/1113ish still my target... even when it looked so bad this morn
352
well we got the candle that i was expecting since 9am ...
350
best price was the 37.17 limit fill... but forced to sell some lower too
341
so....ready to sell if the 2min charts deteriorate
340
oh no... comp reached its upside target... R here...hmm
339
if it hits 1103 i'll sell most sso
336
i'm gonna keep a small swing long... understanding risk...dont like reports tomorrow... trading the charts on that small piece... suggest more upside
334
my limit 3703 was filled to sell .... saving rest for higher
333
vix tregt 21.94.....last 23.40... not today
331
sso....target.....37.02,,,,,37.17/ 37.28
324
crouching tiger forming .... suggests a retest and break of highs.... but only at 83% now.... 3702 trgt on the tiger
323
3680 sso... not a bad profit stop for nervous sso....in case this is headfake up here
318
purely from a tech stand, i see more up... but news sure can alter that
311
it could pop to 1088.... if so i will look for it to move up... or something poss wrong
305
VIX under 24....prior minor sig level... 2379 ---poss bullish for spx
303
limit sell 10% sso 3702 (large port sell, small port holding)
253
if spx 1098/99 pierce sustain higher...next trgt 1106a
245
10% sold 36.88////
244
spx set to close a candle over the 1092
242
preparing to sell 20% sso.... not yet... when it stalls... lsat 3788
240
any close at this
level or higher would give the daily
candle i expected.... but spx needs to
hold or move higher
238
a move down off 1092 would be ok in spx..expecting stall there
237
spx daily hammer forming as expected :)
236
spx just gapped up intraday
235
getting over
the midpoint of bollinger usually
requires some work.. spx is trying now
233
spx tested the lows... time to test near the highs and end with a daily hammer candle
230
wonderful...grr... spx has decided to coil here....
228
still looking for that hammer.... daily....
221
3 min bear engulfing in vix tho.. a big huge engulf
219
1081 spx...is the trendline... stop mkt to buy not filled...
217
spx made made a new LOD
207
one thing i dont like about being long overnight tonite (tho i will be long) is tomorrows reports....
206
the stop market orders to buy are still in... i might not be able to post the buys right away if they come... also might take some sso 1080ish
203
theres a second, weaker "close over 1088" but i dont trust that one given the whipsaw
202
spx "15min or 60min candle close over 1092" bullish signal still valid... hasnt happened
200
VIX has a doji candle daily
152
spx...did not retest low so far..came close
145
Previously I also shorted DOW at 10,720ish... covered 10,200... and reversed to long on DOW at 10,200.. so currently long DOW from 10,200
136
down 1.57% on that piece of sso
134
nervous newly entered sso could exit here at 3737 breakeven... i'm staying in (i also have sso that is red...bought at higher price
132
spx hanging by a thread...but LOD still not re-tested... last 1086
127
the spx is setting up a POSITIVE divergence (not to be confused with bullish diverg) in the daily charts. takes time to play out tho, esp on the daily chart. The positive divergence is generally stronger than a bullish divergence
126
*buy AT THE MARKET if spx hits 1077... correction... also might consider 1080 buy sso...thats a touch of trendline... will decide if/when it gets there.... last 1086
116
failure to retest the LOD would be good for bulls, as it would indicate orders being place above the low vs below it.... last 1086.50... LOD 1085.32
105
1088 broke... still expecting test LOD cuz of that
103
if spx is at 1085 at 2pm... not good for longs....
102
selling ALL tbt... 47.63... will buy bak
101
TBT: taking some profits here in tbt into strength.... 4765... that was also 2 cents over one of the targets
1253
limit buy some sso if spx hits 1077... last spx 1087
1252
1088 broke....
1251
VXX: limit buy some vxx at 30.18, for swing, last 3236
1248
testing 1088 again...break stil implies test the LOD
1246
TBT: sell 20% of shares... limit 4808, 4817... good for today only......to catch a FOMC spike... 1.6% daytrade profit if filled.. last 4769
1241
to me,,, spx suggests whipsaw and range even without the FOMC... in coming hours days... i'll go short when the 60min looks better
1239
sds charts look bullish,,, but they also suggest trap n chop... so staying out short for now
1239
the spx 1088 is holding....
1228
spx.... STILL no candle close over 1092 .. and not expecting much b4 FOMC
1224
3min macd signal line ---poss bullish dbl botm W on spx
1221
if 1088 doesnt hold here likely test LOD
1216
spx 1090 is providing R ...normal... it was prev low that was broken
1212
tbt has hurdled the 4766 R... see if it can sustain....4770 last
1210
149.84 daytrade GS
could work here for 151... but i'm not
going in
1202
SPX will likely get rejected at the first try at 1092, if it happens in the next hour... last 1089
1202
FOMC time will prob look like first 6 minutes today up, down, all around
1200
spx broke higher from the small 3min coil, and is backtesting now... the more impt hurdle for spx is the 3 min DTL now at 1091.47
1200
spx only hit 1091 not 1092 at 11:57...
1158
tbt--see if it can get over 4766R... last 4759.. a stall at 4766 would be normal
1153
1092 at 11:57AM still
on target...
1153
yea heres that movement...
1151
this 1 point range should cause some skittishness and activity, tho nothing major
1150
altho its near lunch rite now... should see a little pickup in activity
1144
expecting the 3min MACD hist to form a lower peak today, but a higher price, for spx.
1139
1135 post only valid if 1088 holds
1135
at current velocity, looking for spx to hit 1092 at 11:57AM and 1094 at 12:17PM
1128
3min spx is coiling now... 1094 test initial target if breaks higher...last 1090
1125
yes. there's the 1189 as mentioned...watching to see if 1088 holds....last 1090
1123
spx has bull crouching tiger (daytrade)... 88% confid if 1088 holds .. this suggests maybe a move down to 1088/89 and then a break of 1091 higher.. last spx 1091
1117
thus far.... spx unable to get a candle close over 1091... among other things, i am watching for that
1115
a daily hammer candle today or tomorrow, wouldnt surprise me
1059
there's a setup in the 15min charts....a 15min candle CLOSE over 1091 would give a buy signal in spx... a 60 min setup is better and stronger and being formed also. the 60 min setup could fail, and 15min not yet confirmed... needs that close over 1091...
this is the same bullish setup that worked yesterday....
1057
spx back at 1090 the
2nd time... see if it holds as R
1056
my ddm (long DOW INDU) from a few days ago... its red by about 39 dow points down now... still looks ok to me...holding it
1054
see the 60min bull falling wedge? more downside is possible in the wedge to 1075ish, but wedge could pivot back up
1051
dollar is at horizontal R now....(would be bullish for spx if dollar is held down)
1045
also, an uptrend usually requires 3 re-draws of its uptrend line before total complete failure and reversal... this would be only the second re-draw since march 2009 low... again i want to short,,, just offering possibility of move back to 1113ish (not exact target)
1041
this move is similar to 10/26/09 move down, which plunged but then bounced up off the trendline to make new highs....
1037
in coming days, after this down move is finished, i'm still not ruling out a move back to 1113ish spx.... if spx holds above 1074ish
1029
see if spx can get over 1090... last 1089
1026
tbt short term buy here 4740 with trgt 4813, 4837, 4907 could work here,,, tho i'm not taking it just yet.. poss dbl top tbt...this would be trading the bounce up b4 the possible break lower
1020
ES is also near its prior low (es made lower low than spx)
1018
1079 spx is the UTL support under the 1085... close to that 1077
1005
i'm just somewhat cautious on short side.... spx might want a daily HS to form first... 1084---1113 type thing
1002
But, the bull diverg will also set up if spx makes a lower low, so unknown what mr. market will decide
1001
the 60min spx is forming bull divergences,,,, if spx can hold around this area, or move sideways for an hour or so, it could set up a pattern to bounce
954
somewhere near 1081/79 spx that other support
950
theres also support on spx BELOW 1085 a little... as a result of the trendline... trendline support vs horiz support .. dont have exact # here... could make a spike down, form a hammer, pop back up...
949
1097 spx could be hit.. theres a daytrade pattern pointing there... last 1092
941
the rsi 60min support trendline has a marginal violation but is still holding for intraday bullishness... is one reason why i remained long sso last nite... it is testing it though////
940
yea... that 15min sso formed what could be a nasty bear M inside its rect.... if sso can push up to 3730 it would invalidate the bear M
938
the sso targets today are basically the same as yesterday LOL... with 3737/ 3741 being key R
931
sso: this is an example of where the sso has misagligned itself slightly with the spy and spx.... so i'm using manual stops... a violation of 3650 is not necessarily a "real break"... this is common with the 2x 3x leveraged etfs
925
pre-market is whipping all around,,,up down up down,,,, volatility,,,,on days like this, limit orders often work very well....
919
TBT-- but now i'm watching tbt to make sure it wont dbl top / M and tumble below 47 (daily chart)
903
VXX - also want some more of that.... closed for profits 2-3 days ago.. very volatile, wide stops required, for swing / mid-term as well
859
TBT--- i still want some TBT, waiting for the 60min and 15min charts to align, and the daily to settle down. there is a poss breakout in tbt ... asc triangle 60min, but i'm not trading it, for now. the tbt is both swing (days) and mid-term (1-6 months) hold idea for me.
858am
chart update: since i drew it, a newly formed coil has formed in ES 60min... still has an upward bias (see MACD RSI diverg)
8:36 AM
ES possible move up? I remain long via SSO.
Right now, futures are basically flat, up 1.50.
But I draw your attention to the chart below. ES was in a down channel, broke out, and then crashed yesterday. BUT notice where it fell to... right back to the previous DTL. It has since TRIED to pivot back up. I'll be watching the ES today for a move higher, if the ES 1081/80 holds.. and preferably if ES would break over 1092 and then hold over 1092 for the first 2 hours.
BTW, I drew those channel lines on Monday and did not change them to "make them fit".
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
i'm gonna look into xlf tomorrow
401
true zhou... i'm thinking 1487 xlf on a break over 1444
353
1106/1113ish still my target... even when it looked so bad this morn
352
well we got the candle that i was expecting since 9am ...
350
best price was the 37.17 limit fill... but forced to sell some lower too
341
so....ready to sell if the 2min charts deteriorate
340
oh no... comp reached its upside target... R here...hmm
339
if it hits 1103 i'll sell most sso
336
i'm gonna keep a small swing long... understanding risk...dont like reports tomorrow... trading the charts on that small piece... suggest more upside
334
my limit 3703 was filled to sell .... saving rest for higher
333
vix tregt 21.94.....last 23.40... not today
331
sso....target.....37.02,,,,,37.17/ 37.28
324
crouching tiger forming .... suggests a retest and break of highs.... but only at 83% now.... 3702 trgt on the tiger
323
3680 sso... not a bad profit stop for nervous sso....in case this is headfake up here
318
purely from a tech stand, i see more up... but news sure can alter that
311
it could pop to 1088.... if so i will look for it to move up... or something poss wrong
305
VIX under 24....prior minor sig level... 2379 ---poss bullish for spx
303
limit sell 10% sso 3702 (large port sell, small port holding)
253
if spx 1098/99 pierce sustain higher...next trgt 1106a
245
10% sold 36.88////
244
spx set to close a candle over the 1092
242
preparing to sell 20% sso.... not yet... when it stalls... lsat 3788
240
any close at this
level or higher would give the daily
candle i expected.... but spx needs to
hold or move higher
238
a move down off 1092 would be ok in spx..expecting stall there
237
spx daily hammer forming as expected :)
236
spx just gapped up intraday
235
getting over
the midpoint of bollinger usually
requires some work.. spx is trying now
233
spx tested the lows... time to test near the highs and end with a daily hammer candle
230
wonderful...grr... spx has decided to coil here....
228
still looking for that hammer.... daily....
221
3 min bear engulfing in vix tho.. a big huge engulf
219
1081 spx...is the trendline... stop mkt to buy not filled...
217
spx made made a new LOD
207
one thing i dont like about being long overnight tonite (tho i will be long) is tomorrows reports....
206
the stop market orders to buy are still in... i might not be able to post the buys right away if they come... also might take some sso 1080ish
203
theres a second, weaker "close over 1088" but i dont trust that one given the whipsaw
202
spx "15min or 60min candle close over 1092" bullish signal still valid... hasnt happened
200
VIX has a doji candle daily
152
spx...did not retest low so far..came close
145
Previously I also shorted DOW at 10,720ish... covered 10,200... and reversed to long on DOW at 10,200.. so currently long DOW from 10,200
136
down 1.57% on that piece of sso
134
nervous newly entered sso could exit here at 3737 breakeven... i'm staying in (i also have sso that is red...bought at higher price
132
spx hanging by a thread...but LOD still not re-tested... last 1086
127
the spx is setting up a POSITIVE divergence (not to be confused with bullish diverg) in the daily charts. takes time to play out tho, esp on the daily chart. The positive divergence is generally stronger than a bullish divergence
126
*buy AT THE MARKET if spx hits 1077... correction... also might consider 1080 buy sso...thats a touch of trendline... will decide if/when it gets there.... last 1086
116
failure to retest the LOD would be good for bulls, as it would indicate orders being place above the low vs below it.... last 1086.50... LOD 1085.32
105
1088 broke... still expecting test LOD cuz of that
103
if spx is at 1085 at 2pm... not good for longs....
102
selling ALL tbt... 47.63... will buy bak
101
TBT: taking some profits here in tbt into strength.... 4765... that was also 2 cents over one of the targets
1253
limit buy some sso if spx hits 1077... last spx 1087
1252
1088 broke....
1251
VXX: limit buy some vxx at 30.18, for swing, last 3236
1248
testing 1088 again...break stil implies test the LOD
1246
TBT: sell 20% of shares... limit 4808, 4817... good for today only......to catch a FOMC spike... 1.6% daytrade profit if filled.. last 4769
1241
to me,,, spx suggests whipsaw and range even without the FOMC... in coming hours days... i'll go short when the 60min looks better
1239
sds charts look bullish,,, but they also suggest trap n chop... so staying out short for now
1239
the spx 1088 is holding....
1228
spx.... STILL no candle close over 1092 .. and not expecting much b4 FOMC
1224
3min macd signal line ---poss bullish dbl botm W on spx
1221
if 1088 doesnt hold here likely test LOD
1216
spx 1090 is providing R ...normal... it was prev low that was broken
1212
tbt has hurdled the 4766 R... see if it can sustain....4770 last
1210
149.84 daytrade GS
could work here for 151... but i'm not
going in
1202
SPX will likely get rejected at the first try at 1092, if it happens in the next hour... last 1089
1202
FOMC time will prob look like first 6 minutes today up, down, all around
1200
spx broke higher from the small 3min coil, and is backtesting now... the more impt hurdle for spx is the 3 min DTL now at 1091.47
1200
spx only hit 1091 not 1092 at 11:57...
1158
tbt--see if it can get over 4766R... last 4759.. a stall at 4766 would be normal
1153
1092 at 11:57AM still
on target...
1153
yea heres that movement...
1151
this 1 point range should cause some skittishness and activity, tho nothing major
1150
altho its near lunch rite now... should see a little pickup in activity
1144
expecting the 3min MACD hist to form a lower peak today, but a higher price, for spx.
1139
1135 post only valid if 1088 holds
1135
at current velocity, looking for spx to hit 1092 at 11:57AM and 1094 at 12:17PM
1128
3min spx is coiling now... 1094 test initial target if breaks higher...last 1090
1125
yes. there's the 1189 as mentioned...watching to see if 1088 holds....last 1090
1123
spx has bull crouching tiger (daytrade)... 88% confid if 1088 holds .. this suggests maybe a move down to 1088/89 and then a break of 1091 higher.. last spx 1091
1117
thus far.... spx unable to get a candle close over 1091... among other things, i am watching for that
1115
a daily hammer candle today or tomorrow, wouldnt surprise me
1059
there's a setup in the 15min charts....a 15min candle CLOSE over 1091 would give a buy signal in spx... a 60 min setup is better and stronger and being formed also. the 60 min setup could fail, and 15min not yet confirmed... needs that close over 1091...
this is the same bullish setup that worked yesterday....
1057
spx back at 1090 the
2nd time... see if it holds as R
1056
my ddm (long DOW INDU) from a few days ago... its red by about 39 dow points down now... still looks ok to me...holding it
1054
see the 60min bull falling wedge? more downside is possible in the wedge to 1075ish, but wedge could pivot back up
1051
dollar is at horizontal R now....(would be bullish for spx if dollar is held down)
1045
also, an uptrend usually requires 3 re-draws of its uptrend line before total complete failure and reversal... this would be only the second re-draw since march 2009 low... again i want to short,,, just offering possibility of move back to 1113ish (not exact target)
1041
this move is similar to 10/26/09 move down, which plunged but then bounced up off the trendline to make new highs....
1037
in coming days, after this down move is finished, i'm still not ruling out a move back to 1113ish spx.... if spx holds above 1074ish
1029
see if spx can get over 1090... last 1089
1026
tbt short term buy here 4740 with trgt 4813, 4837, 4907 could work here,,, tho i'm not taking it just yet.. poss dbl top tbt...this would be trading the bounce up b4 the possible break lower
1020
ES is also near its prior low (es made lower low than spx)
1018
1079 spx is the UTL support under the 1085... close to that 1077
1005
i'm just somewhat cautious on short side.... spx might want a daily HS to form first... 1084---1113 type thing
1002
But, the bull diverg will also set up if spx makes a lower low, so unknown what mr. market will decide
1001
the 60min spx is forming bull divergences,,,, if spx can hold around this area, or move sideways for an hour or so, it could set up a pattern to bounce
954
somewhere near 1081/79 spx that other support
950
theres also support on spx BELOW 1085 a little... as a result of the trendline... trendline support vs horiz support .. dont have exact # here... could make a spike down, form a hammer, pop back up...
949
1097 spx could be hit.. theres a daytrade pattern pointing there... last 1092
941
the rsi 60min support trendline has a marginal violation but is still holding for intraday bullishness... is one reason why i remained long sso last nite... it is testing it though////
940
yea... that 15min sso formed what could be a nasty bear M inside its rect.... if sso can push up to 3730 it would invalidate the bear M
938
the sso targets today are basically the same as yesterday LOL... with 3737/ 3741 being key R
931
sso: this is an example of where the sso has misagligned itself slightly with the spy and spx.... so i'm using manual stops... a violation of 3650 is not necessarily a "real break"... this is common with the 2x 3x leveraged etfs
925
pre-market is whipping all around,,,up down up down,,,, volatility,,,,on days like this, limit orders often work very well....
919
TBT-- but now i'm watching tbt to make sure it wont dbl top / M and tumble below 47 (daily chart)
903
VXX - also want some more of that.... closed for profits 2-3 days ago.. very volatile, wide stops required, for swing / mid-term as well
859
TBT--- i still want some TBT, waiting for the 60min and 15min charts to align, and the daily to settle down. there is a poss breakout in tbt ... asc triangle 60min, but i'm not trading it, for now. the tbt is both swing (days) and mid-term (1-6 months) hold idea for me.
858am
chart update: since i drew it, a newly formed coil has formed in ES 60min... still has an upward bias (see MACD RSI diverg)
8:36 AM
ES possible move up? I remain long via SSO.
Right now, futures are basically flat, up 1.50.
But I draw your attention to the chart below. ES was in a down channel, broke out, and then crashed yesterday. BUT notice where it fell to... right back to the previous DTL. It has since TRIED to pivot back up. I'll be watching the ES today for a move higher, if the ES 1081/80 holds.. and preferably if ES would break over 1092 and then hold over 1092 for the first 2 hours.
BTW, I drew those channel lines on Monday and did not change them to "make them fit".
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
VIX and VXX discrepancy
Many are not aware of this, but the VXX and VIX are NOT linearly related. That is, a 20% move up in the VIX might only result in an 8% increase in the VXX etf.... many people that trade VXX think that it works like SPY SSO SDS etc. to produce a nearly identical percent change.
For example, today the VXX closed up 0.41% while VIX closed down 3.38%
Conversely, SSO is usually very very close to 2x the SPY. and spy usually very close to mimicking the sp500 (from a % increase/decrease perspective). This is not the case with VXX and VIX.
Nevertheless, for swing trades (days holding) or mid-term trades (a few months holding), the VXX is a good vehicle. If you think that the VIX will go up, then buying VXX long will put you in place to take advantage of that move in the VIX.
I took profits 2 days ago in VXX (nice run up, dont have any now)
,,,, looking at some more to buy soon.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
For example, today the VXX closed up 0.41% while VIX closed down 3.38%
Conversely, SSO is usually very very close to 2x the SPY. and spy usually very close to mimicking the sp500 (from a % increase/decrease perspective). This is not the case with VXX and VIX.
Nevertheless, for swing trades (days holding) or mid-term trades (a few months holding), the VXX is a good vehicle. If you think that the VIX will go up, then buying VXX long will put you in place to take advantage of that move in the VIX.
I took profits 2 days ago in VXX (nice run up, dont have any now)
,,,, looking at some more to buy soon.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
tuesday ramblings (and Mon nite futures)
354
oh... i mean i SOLD
some of the sso swing large port.....so i guess those
"sales" were trades
352
i did not make a single trade today lol ... still have the sso long.
331
15min bull divergences setting up. 60min rsi trendline support ok.. lots of stuff that says "chop or sideways with upward bias"
330
i like the charts long overnite... i know i'm in minority here... i want to get short again mid-term of course... at higher levels
329
sso 3691 holding ...barely... for now... could break of coure
324
sso near the 3691 now....last 3696
321
today... barely... qualifies as a key reversal day pattern
320
still long sso.... willprob hold overnite
319
i think...if we dont go up around 335...bears r in control
316
sso 60min rsi support line...is doing a touch of it now...still holding....
315
this is setting up a 3min bull diverg tho... could turn up b4 close at 4pm
314
then sso 3691 is next if 3708 not hold
313
grrr the 3714 sso didnt hold... see if3708 holds
311
these charts, rite now, to me,,, suggest sideways with slight up bias.... the way theylook now
309
if they push it up ... could get a 2 day bullish engulfing... last spx 1099... tho lately they have SOLD into the close
307
sso 60 min: stage 1 rsi swing failure (bullish) confirmed... stage 2 developing (not confirmed).... suggests still more up
302
thus far spx has held above the 1096, and close to the preferred 1100 holda
300
earlier, i was wrong..i had antipated the sso to hit 37.51 before 3708.... instead it came down first.... only hit 3745... but the 3740 area was close so i sold some up there b4
258
87% crouching tiger up from 81%... 97% if the 3713 holds
254
but crouch tiger a reasonable entry,,,or reason to hold the sso
252
81% bull crouching tiger sso if it holds 3714...only 81% suggests
chops,,, and poss failure
249
so sso did hit near 3708, as warned earlier. i'm still long sso tho
248
3819 also is a resistance zone
247
i dont expect the 3819 today
246
the sso 38.19 pattern and target is still valid thus far ... last 37.14...the 3819 target may not come today (if at all)
240
ok sso hit close to 2nd micro support 3708.... getting interesting here
230
sso 3717 mini support,,, then 3708ish... last 3717
226
i would be ok staying in sso even with spx hitting 1096 as long as it holds there...
224
when lower timeframe charts are causing whipsaw, its often beneficial to use the higher (longer) term timeframes... harder to manipulate and give the "direction" much more clearly
214
i see the 3min dblt top poss too...but 60 and 15 still suggest more up to me... could go down then pop up without damaging the 15 n 60 charts
201
see the 3minute gap up just now... spx sso??
157...
well its 157... 3752 is still target, but its late (if it gets there) .. wrong time calc grr..last 3740... still expecting the 3752
152
yes. well we endured that drop to .25.... sso has recovered to .41.... but still watching the lower highs.....
152
now looking on sso 3 min to make sure it doesnt start a lower hi ..lower low type thing....
145
putting aside all trendlines etc... look at the spx pattern 15min from noon yest till now... stand a few feet from the monitor... its bullish
139
sso is behind on the 1:56pm time to hit 37.51.... cmon speed up... last 3729
134
its tough tick-watching the sso go down to 3725 a lil here... but the charts still have that down- up- down pattern,,, where we are in the first "down" now... so holding the sso
132
over 3708 sso would still be bullish, 3716 hold preferred... last 3728
119
i'm being careful with shorts here... charts suggest they could drop this and trap the shorts...with a move back up to HOD
115
looking for sso 37.51 around 1:56pm today
109
yes the bear wedge formed when the spx broke under its previous UTL... its wat i was concerned with earlier... but other things suggest more... but could see 3708 first grrr
105
i'm going to endure the drop there if it comes
104
the problem is... sso might want 3708 down... it would still be bullish...but painful watching it go there
103
all the chart patterns various from 10am are still valid...
100
these small candles spx are not particularly bullish,,,, its crawling up.... will ride the sso until it starts breaking down,,, cuz on higher vol we could get a big green candle intraday
1256
2264= comp stretch target (not today)... last 2226
1254
interim trgt... sso 3777.. so sso next targets 3746, 3777,, 38.19
1250
still got limit order to sell up there... 3751....partial shares only
1248
daily bullish engulf candle continues to form... but still early and would need
1246
if it blasts past without a stall it would be bullisha
1246
if sso hits 3751... a 20 cent pullback could still be bullish... expecting a big stall 3751....last 3742
1245
3741 /43 trgt hit
1244
sso sell limit 3751 to take a pop up...partial shares...large port only...no order in small port
1242
sso next targets 3746,,, 38.19... will need to calc an interim trgt under 3819
1241
ok...3737...filled...sold...took partial profits...
1239
one pennny from 3737 limit sell partial
1234
hugging the support line.. but its hugging UNDER IT...not good... bulls need to push this...but other things suggest still more up in spx
1229
if bulls dont hold here... sso likely to hit 3708... last 3728....need to hold aroun .20ish
1224
poss SPY bullish engulfing 2 day candle pattern could form today
1223
its 1223 not 1221 now...got the new high expected below
1222
filled on the sale.. took partial profits
1221
selling a few shrs sso at .29 here...lg port only
1220
the spx has BROKEN its support line in that upchannel... its marginal break...but the bulls need to hold it up....
1217
the 3min continues to dev bear divergences... but they take time to manifest
1215
6 cents away fromt the 3737 limit sell...large port only
1211
bulls need comp 2225... last 2222
1210
charts suggest a new hi in spx around 1:221pm ...last 1101
1207
thus far, the 3min upchannel i mentioned b4... has held beautifully...but of course its a contra-trend channel and suspeptible to breaking .. the sso continues to bounce of the UTL support line
1206
ok so we've got 2 sso closes over the 3721ish... but i'm not thrilled with the shoot star candle closes...15min...but it confirms the macd buy signal --- PpP buy sig
1204
this is not a bad place to short... but i'm not.. i prefer to wait for spx to go LOWER,,, then short on a small move up during any such chop.. cuz the spx could breakout higher still
1158
so that would suggest another pop up... if they cover... last 3727
1157
the "conservative" newly entered "aggressive shorts" will prob be covering around here,,, getting out until the path is not so murky...
1156
grr.... 3737 not filled yet... 5 cents off... so selling fewer shares at the 3737 and moving them to 3743... still got both limits in///hit 3732 not 3737
1155
small port...no sso sell orders yet...holding for higher
1154
for my large port... i've got sell limit orders in the sso limit 3737 3743... last 3730
1148
if comp hits 2225 the newly entered shorts will prob trigger stops upward
1146
notice, tho, that a candle has not CLOSED over 3721.. ok well the 10min did... so a marginal close... so a marginal
close.. a 15min close would be more
bullish
1145
those shorts might get whipsawed out if they enter now... charts still say more up, to me... this lil move down is expected as shorts r entering here... how fun to watch... see how it plays out
1143
sso hit 3729... close to 3737 target but far enough away to merit a second attempt up to hurdle over it ... the 3737 is a key intraday target, as i see it
1142
ahh COMP is hitting that 2222 R...close to it
1139
and sds breaks its lows as expected :)
1138
ok.... first sso trgt hit...3717 :)... real target first is 3737 with a 3743 overshoot
1135
"failure" refers to inability to hold the previous trend (in this case, prev trend down)
1135
there is also a weak bullish rsi formation...60min... (rsi failure swing... lol failure makes it sound bearish but its bullish)
1134
but...this is all
intraday for a lil bounce.... if spx
doesnt break higher then the spx
midterm bear flag will rule
midterm i DO EXPECT LOWER spx
1133
yes...tho there is a 3min bear diverg.... so maybe backtest and more chop if that plays out
1130
sso spx broke higher from the bull flag.... a backtest could occur...but bulls need to hold the 1096ish
1130
resistance at COMP 2222ish... last 2215
1129
the 3min upchannel inside the downchannel continues to dev and hold...spx sso
1128
YES. we continue to see chop with upward bias, as expected.... :)
1128
that would confirm the macd pPp intraday buy signal
1127
here we go... sso needs a candle CLOSE over that sso 3720... last 3712
1124
3737 then 3743
1123
i see sso 3743ish first at minnimum... if the 3696ish holds... curr charts suggest to me that its on course for the 3743
1118
arguably the sso has a coil 3min over 2days,,,and also an up channel within the larger down channel... upchannel being valid only while sso over 3696ish
1117
but the break is marginal, doesnt count yet
1117
rigth now the SSO is testing its 3min /10min DTL and has marginally violoated it up...last 3704
1110
btw... the sso targets today are less precise cuz its for a swing position not daytrade... not bothering to refine them
1107
on 3min sso
1106
sso has a 3728 chart pattern trgt on break of 3711...which is close to the 3737 trgt
1105
this sso/spx mini bull flag thing is still in play...can see it on the 3min chart now too
1052
so far...sso/spx held near that 1095/96 intraday level...
1051
and the 15min 60min are dev poss rectangles
1050
the daily / 60min spx will form a bear flag/pennant if spx fails to break higher
1047
also note the rising histogram macd on 15 and 60min sso charts... suggests chop with upward bias.... and poss pPp macd bull formation
1047
sso chart patterns from b4... still valid and developing...
1045
over 1095 spx... i'm still seeing spx bouncing higher first... and a bar close 15min or 60min over 1099
1042
but 1096.45 support has been marginally broken... so this level impt intraday
1041
if spx can hold around 1095... poss small bull flag 15min... last 1096
1034
sso: a break under 3694 could give 3681, 3650... last 3698
1031
on sso on the 15min bar for 1030 (this bar) , a CLOSE over 3720 would be bullish (close 1045 on the 1030 bar)... or on any following 15min bar close over 3720
1027
see if sso holds 3694 gap support or if bears break below it...
1023
Chart patterns:
3min pattern target 3811 on break over 3733.
Rectangle pattern: target 3826 on break of 3651
Still working out more precise details / consolodations
1022
sso 3 cents from first trgt 3717
1008
here are the quick targets i see for sso.... more precise targets to follow: 3717 3737 3746 3819 3877 3921 4011... not saying we make it to 4011
1012
the sso 3709ish stall was expected... still see higher tho
1007
sso 3709 R....last 3703
1001
but the diverg is in 15min not 60... so upside bounce is limited...
953
there is a pos diverg setting up in spx 15min...double-low price vs higher rsi bottom.. still under construction... to provide a bounce up in spx..last 1091
933
glad i bailed yest on GILD yest at 4582... now 45.00
925
We could see a move up in SPX in the coming 2 days, before the initial/ continuing Claims report... Right now, I expect a negative reaction after the report, so they could try to bring it up first, if able.
917
ES moved up to 1092 and then turned back down. 1092 was a perfect touch of the 60min downtrend R line. The DTL is steep though, which implies that it can be hurdled higher. Will be watching throughout today, especially the first 1-2 hours.
7:59 AM
ES futures tumbled last night from 1092 to a low of 1081, but have since recovered to 1090. so now they are down 2.50.
It should make for an interesting day today.
More details later...
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
oh... i mean i SOLD
some of the sso swing large port.....so i guess those
"sales" were trades
352
i did not make a single trade today lol ... still have the sso long.
331
15min bull divergences setting up. 60min rsi trendline support ok.. lots of stuff that says "chop or sideways with upward bias"
330
i like the charts long overnite... i know i'm in minority here... i want to get short again mid-term of course... at higher levels
329
sso 3691 holding ...barely... for now... could break of coure
324
sso near the 3691 now....last 3696
321
today... barely... qualifies as a key reversal day pattern
320
still long sso.... willprob hold overnite
319
i think...if we dont go up around 335...bears r in control
316
sso 60min rsi support line...is doing a touch of it now...still holding....
315
this is setting up a 3min bull diverg tho... could turn up b4 close at 4pm
314
then sso 3691 is next if 3708 not hold
313
grrr the 3714 sso didnt hold... see if3708 holds
311
these charts, rite now, to me,,, suggest sideways with slight up bias.... the way theylook now
309
if they push it up ... could get a 2 day bullish engulfing... last spx 1099... tho lately they have SOLD into the close
307
sso 60 min: stage 1 rsi swing failure (bullish) confirmed... stage 2 developing (not confirmed).... suggests still more up
302
thus far spx has held above the 1096, and close to the preferred 1100 holda
300
earlier, i was wrong..i had antipated the sso to hit 37.51 before 3708.... instead it came down first.... only hit 3745... but the 3740 area was close so i sold some up there b4
258
87% crouching tiger up from 81%... 97% if the 3713 holds
254
but crouch tiger a reasonable entry,,,or reason to hold the sso
252
81% bull crouching tiger sso if it holds 3714...only 81% suggests
chops,,, and poss failure
249
so sso did hit near 3708, as warned earlier. i'm still long sso tho
248
3819 also is a resistance zone
247
i dont expect the 3819 today
246
the sso 38.19 pattern and target is still valid thus far ... last 37.14...the 3819 target may not come today (if at all)
240
ok sso hit close to 2nd micro support 3708.... getting interesting here
230
sso 3717 mini support,,, then 3708ish... last 3717
226
i would be ok staying in sso even with spx hitting 1096 as long as it holds there...
224
when lower timeframe charts are causing whipsaw, its often beneficial to use the higher (longer) term timeframes... harder to manipulate and give the "direction" much more clearly
214
i see the 3min dblt top poss too...but 60 and 15 still suggest more up to me... could go down then pop up without damaging the 15 n 60 charts
201
see the 3minute gap up just now... spx sso??
157...
well its 157... 3752 is still target, but its late (if it gets there) .. wrong time calc grr..last 3740... still expecting the 3752
152
yes. well we endured that drop to .25.... sso has recovered to .41.... but still watching the lower highs.....
152
now looking on sso 3 min to make sure it doesnt start a lower hi ..lower low type thing....
145
putting aside all trendlines etc... look at the spx pattern 15min from noon yest till now... stand a few feet from the monitor... its bullish
139
sso is behind on the 1:56pm time to hit 37.51.... cmon speed up... last 3729
134
its tough tick-watching the sso go down to 3725 a lil here... but the charts still have that down- up- down pattern,,, where we are in the first "down" now... so holding the sso
132
over 3708 sso would still be bullish, 3716 hold preferred... last 3728
119
i'm being careful with shorts here... charts suggest they could drop this and trap the shorts...with a move back up to HOD
115
looking for sso 37.51 around 1:56pm today
109
yes the bear wedge formed when the spx broke under its previous UTL... its wat i was concerned with earlier... but other things suggest more... but could see 3708 first grrr
105
i'm going to endure the drop there if it comes
104
the problem is... sso might want 3708 down... it would still be bullish...but painful watching it go there
103
all the chart patterns various from 10am are still valid...
100
these small candles spx are not particularly bullish,,,, its crawling up.... will ride the sso until it starts breaking down,,, cuz on higher vol we could get a big green candle intraday
1256
2264= comp stretch target (not today)... last 2226
1254
interim trgt... sso 3777.. so sso next targets 3746, 3777,, 38.19
1250
still got limit order to sell up there... 3751....partial shares only
1248
daily bullish engulf candle continues to form... but still early and would need
1246
if it blasts past without a stall it would be bullisha
1246
if sso hits 3751... a 20 cent pullback could still be bullish... expecting a big stall 3751....last 3742
1245
3741 /43 trgt hit
1244
sso sell limit 3751 to take a pop up...partial shares...large port only...no order in small port
1242
sso next targets 3746,,, 38.19... will need to calc an interim trgt under 3819
1241
ok...3737...filled...sold...took partial profits...
1239
one pennny from 3737 limit sell partial
1234
hugging the support line.. but its hugging UNDER IT...not good... bulls need to push this...but other things suggest still more up in spx
1229
if bulls dont hold here... sso likely to hit 3708... last 3728....need to hold aroun .20ish
1224
poss SPY bullish engulfing 2 day candle pattern could form today
1223
its 1223 not 1221 now...got the new high expected below
1222
filled on the sale.. took partial profits
1221
selling a few shrs sso at .29 here...lg port only
1220
the spx has BROKEN its support line in that upchannel... its marginal break...but the bulls need to hold it up....
1217
the 3min continues to dev bear divergences... but they take time to manifest
1215
6 cents away fromt the 3737 limit sell...large port only
1211
bulls need comp 2225... last 2222
1210
charts suggest a new hi in spx around 1:221pm ...last 1101
1207
thus far, the 3min upchannel i mentioned b4... has held beautifully...but of course its a contra-trend channel and suspeptible to breaking .. the sso continues to bounce of the UTL support line
1206
ok so we've got 2 sso closes over the 3721ish... but i'm not thrilled with the shoot star candle closes...15min...but it confirms the macd buy signal --- PpP buy sig
1204
this is not a bad place to short... but i'm not.. i prefer to wait for spx to go LOWER,,, then short on a small move up during any such chop.. cuz the spx could breakout higher still
1158
so that would suggest another pop up... if they cover... last 3727
1157
the "conservative" newly entered "aggressive shorts" will prob be covering around here,,, getting out until the path is not so murky...
1156
grr.... 3737 not filled yet... 5 cents off... so selling fewer shares at the 3737 and moving them to 3743... still got both limits in///hit 3732 not 3737
1155
small port...no sso sell orders yet...holding for higher
1154
for my large port... i've got sell limit orders in the sso limit 3737 3743... last 3730
1148
if comp hits 2225 the newly entered shorts will prob trigger stops upward
1146
notice, tho, that a candle has not CLOSED over 3721.. ok well the 10min did... so a marginal close... so a marginal
close.. a 15min close would be more
bullish
1145
those shorts might get whipsawed out if they enter now... charts still say more up, to me... this lil move down is expected as shorts r entering here... how fun to watch... see how it plays out
1143
sso hit 3729... close to 3737 target but far enough away to merit a second attempt up to hurdle over it ... the 3737 is a key intraday target, as i see it
1142
ahh COMP is hitting that 2222 R...close to it
1139
and sds breaks its lows as expected :)
1138
ok.... first sso trgt hit...3717 :)... real target first is 3737 with a 3743 overshoot
1135
"failure" refers to inability to hold the previous trend (in this case, prev trend down)
1135
there is also a weak bullish rsi formation...60min... (rsi failure swing... lol failure makes it sound bearish but its bullish)
1134
but...this is all
intraday for a lil bounce.... if spx
doesnt break higher then the spx
midterm bear flag will rule
midterm i DO EXPECT LOWER spx
1133
yes...tho there is a 3min bear diverg.... so maybe backtest and more chop if that plays out
1130
sso spx broke higher from the bull flag.... a backtest could occur...but bulls need to hold the 1096ish
1130
resistance at COMP 2222ish... last 2215
1129
the 3min upchannel inside the downchannel continues to dev and hold...spx sso
1128
YES. we continue to see chop with upward bias, as expected.... :)
1128
that would confirm the macd pPp intraday buy signal
1127
here we go... sso needs a candle CLOSE over that sso 3720... last 3712
1124
3737 then 3743
1123
i see sso 3743ish first at minnimum... if the 3696ish holds... curr charts suggest to me that its on course for the 3743
1118
arguably the sso has a coil 3min over 2days,,,and also an up channel within the larger down channel... upchannel being valid only while sso over 3696ish
1117
but the break is marginal, doesnt count yet
1117
rigth now the SSO is testing its 3min /10min DTL and has marginally violoated it up...last 3704
1110
btw... the sso targets today are less precise cuz its for a swing position not daytrade... not bothering to refine them
1107
on 3min sso
1106
sso has a 3728 chart pattern trgt on break of 3711...which is close to the 3737 trgt
1105
this sso/spx mini bull flag thing is still in play...can see it on the 3min chart now too
1052
so far...sso/spx held near that 1095/96 intraday level...
1051
and the 15min 60min are dev poss rectangles
1050
the daily / 60min spx will form a bear flag/pennant if spx fails to break higher
1047
also note the rising histogram macd on 15 and 60min sso charts... suggests chop with upward bias.... and poss pPp macd bull formation
1047
sso chart patterns from b4... still valid and developing...
1045
over 1095 spx... i'm still seeing spx bouncing higher first... and a bar close 15min or 60min over 1099
1042
but 1096.45 support has been marginally broken... so this level impt intraday
1041
if spx can hold around 1095... poss small bull flag 15min... last 1096
1034
sso: a break under 3694 could give 3681, 3650... last 3698
1031
on sso on the 15min bar for 1030 (this bar) , a CLOSE over 3720 would be bullish (close 1045 on the 1030 bar)... or on any following 15min bar close over 3720
1027
see if sso holds 3694 gap support or if bears break below it...
1023
Chart patterns:
3min pattern target 3811 on break over 3733.
Rectangle pattern: target 3826 on break of 3651
Still working out more precise details / consolodations
1022
sso 3 cents from first trgt 3717
1008
here are the quick targets i see for sso.... more precise targets to follow: 3717 3737 3746 3819 3877 3921 4011... not saying we make it to 4011
1012
the sso 3709ish stall was expected... still see higher tho
1007
sso 3709 R....last 3703
1001
but the diverg is in 15min not 60... so upside bounce is limited...
953
there is a pos diverg setting up in spx 15min...double-low price vs higher rsi bottom.. still under construction... to provide a bounce up in spx..last 1091
933
glad i bailed yest on GILD yest at 4582... now 45.00
925
We could see a move up in SPX in the coming 2 days, before the initial/ continuing Claims report... Right now, I expect a negative reaction after the report, so they could try to bring it up first, if able.
917
ES moved up to 1092 and then turned back down. 1092 was a perfect touch of the 60min downtrend R line. The DTL is steep though, which implies that it can be hurdled higher. Will be watching throughout today, especially the first 1-2 hours.
7:59 AM
ES futures tumbled last night from 1092 to a low of 1081, but have since recovered to 1090. so now they are down 2.50.
It should make for an interesting day today.
More details later...
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Monday, January 25, 2010
Monday ramblings
343
1099 broke lower...failed to hold
331
YES. spx held the 1099...so far... suggests the move down was headfake if it holds...
323
spx over 1099 would allow a move up...last 1100
318
stop 4571 GILD
255
grr i chose GILD cuz it was in intraday uptrend, expecting it to move up nicely when spx popped up....instead gild is just stuck here....
248
depending on the close... i might give the sso a lil more time and hold overnight again
229
sso 10 cents from testing HOD, as expected this morn... watching to see reaction if it gets there
17
sso 3min is now coiling... watching it...
214
theres an 81% bull crouching tiger sso... but its contratrend so weaker... sso last 3720
136
1% loss if stopped out (0.96%)
135
4577 GILD stop..last 4601
127
yes theres R at the spx 1103,,,then 1106
123
past 3 day large red candles are bearish 3 black crows pattern (inverse of 3 white soldiers bullish)
121
past 3 days r bearish,,, todays daily candle is not bearish as it stands now... of course could change by day end... sso forming a hammer... spx poss harami... both bullish for "slow of trend down, or move up"
1254
SPX has broken over its 15min DTL.....see if it backtests, and if backtest holds or breaks low again... might NOT backtest the DTL b4 hittting HOD first
I lean more toward test of HOD b4 backtest down to the broken DTL
1249
a failure to test fridays low could cause some shorts to cover and push prices up...
1248
sso trade premise still stands, for me.....last 3726
1247
*MIS-behaving
1247
grr the GILD is behaving...not stopped out, still long,,, down red 0.16%
1237
on friday i indicated i wanted to buy tbt today but it gapped up,,, then i didnt monitor it... looking tbt for multimonth hold sometime
1237
i'm out of all VXX except 25% with stop at breakeven.... sold it on friday... was a 8%-12% profit in a few days
1235
*37.97 not 39.97 LOL...typo!!
1232
IF sso can break 3738, there is a pattern that points to target 37.97, a little higher than the 37.84 previous target
1201
sso testing the DTL now... watching to see if Resist holds again here.. charts still suggest a pop up to me.. last sso 3707
1142
SSO has not broken over its intraday DTL 10min... needs to break over the 3min and 10min DTL to get upside accel.. i remain long sso for now...
1122
poss gild to hit 4640 then go down to 4624... would be bullish still.. to set up chart pattern confirming the 4647/57 targets
1119
gild close to retest the .37 trgt that it hit earlier tday... see if it breaks higher or pulls back down again...last 4633
1117
GILD has an asc triangle bullish 60min chart that points to about 47.83 ... but i prob will not hold that long since it requires overnight... will re-eval later in day
1116
support held... see if it can hold more than 5 minutes tho lol
1113
at some support
here..see if holds or breaks lower...
1106
4637 gild target hit,,, made 4641
1104
GILD reports earnings after market today, i think... will confirm... so this is daytrade for now,,, prob no swing...
Targets gild: 4637, 4649, 4657, 4693
1101
1059
sso inv HS not really in play now, no..but i still see a bounce higher in sso, to the same targets
1057
gild first target from 4616 buy is 4637... then higher
1053
long 1000 gild 46.16
1046
small port... took loss on pfe... stopped out at 1886... will re-eval later
1033
charts suggesting chop here, and retest of HOD, to me//// 3, 10 n 15min charts... last spx 1099
1029
the 3784 trgt is close to 3793 Resistance
1028
sso target for inv HS is about 37.84, if it plays out
1027
last spx 1100...inv HS still forming (maybe)
1027
watching for poss bull mini inv HS forming on SPX 3min
939
should see a higher hi today...dont think the hi is in yet... last spx 1100
937
i am watching 1103 1113 1115 for now
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
1099 broke lower...failed to hold
331
YES. spx held the 1099...so far... suggests the move down was headfake if it holds...
323
spx over 1099 would allow a move up...last 1100
318
stop 4571 GILD
255
grr i chose GILD cuz it was in intraday uptrend, expecting it to move up nicely when spx popped up....instead gild is just stuck here....
248
depending on the close... i might give the sso a lil more time and hold overnight again
229
sso 10 cents from testing HOD, as expected this morn... watching to see reaction if it gets there
17
sso 3min is now coiling... watching it...
214
theres an 81% bull crouching tiger sso... but its contratrend so weaker... sso last 3720
136
1% loss if stopped out (0.96%)
135
4577 GILD stop..last 4601
127
yes theres R at the spx 1103,,,then 1106
123
past 3 day large red candles are bearish 3 black crows pattern (inverse of 3 white soldiers bullish)
121
past 3 days r bearish,,, todays daily candle is not bearish as it stands now... of course could change by day end... sso forming a hammer... spx poss harami... both bullish for "slow of trend down, or move up"
1254
SPX has broken over its 15min DTL.....see if it backtests, and if backtest holds or breaks low again... might NOT backtest the DTL b4 hittting HOD first
I lean more toward test of HOD b4 backtest down to the broken DTL
1249
a failure to test fridays low could cause some shorts to cover and push prices up...
1248
sso trade premise still stands, for me.....last 3726
1247
*MIS-behaving
1247
grr the GILD is behaving...not stopped out, still long,,, down red 0.16%
1237
on friday i indicated i wanted to buy tbt today but it gapped up,,, then i didnt monitor it... looking tbt for multimonth hold sometime
1237
i'm out of all VXX except 25% with stop at breakeven.... sold it on friday... was a 8%-12% profit in a few days
1235
*37.97 not 39.97 LOL...typo!!
1232
IF sso can break 3738, there is a pattern that points to target 37.97, a little higher than the 37.84 previous target
1201
sso testing the DTL now... watching to see if Resist holds again here.. charts still suggest a pop up to me.. last sso 3707
1142
SSO has not broken over its intraday DTL 10min... needs to break over the 3min and 10min DTL to get upside accel.. i remain long sso for now...
1122
poss gild to hit 4640 then go down to 4624... would be bullish still.. to set up chart pattern confirming the 4647/57 targets
1119
gild close to retest the .37 trgt that it hit earlier tday... see if it breaks higher or pulls back down again...last 4633
1117
GILD has an asc triangle bullish 60min chart that points to about 47.83 ... but i prob will not hold that long since it requires overnight... will re-eval later in day
1116
support held... see if it can hold more than 5 minutes tho lol
1113
at some support
here..see if holds or breaks lower...
1106
4637 gild target hit,,, made 4641
1104
GILD reports earnings after market today, i think... will confirm... so this is daytrade for now,,, prob no swing...
Targets gild: 4637, 4649, 4657, 4693
1101
1059
sso inv HS not really in play now, no..but i still see a bounce higher in sso, to the same targets
1057
gild first target from 4616 buy is 4637... then higher
1053
long 1000 gild 46.16
1046
small port... took loss on pfe... stopped out at 1886... will re-eval later
1033
charts suggesting chop here, and retest of HOD, to me//// 3, 10 n 15min charts... last spx 1099
1029
the 3784 trgt is close to 3793 Resistance
1028
sso target for inv HS is about 37.84, if it plays out
1027
last spx 1100...inv HS still forming (maybe)
1027
watching for poss bull mini inv HS forming on SPX 3min
939
should see a higher hi today...dont think the hi is in yet... last spx 1100
937
i am watching 1103 1113 1115 for now
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Saturday, January 23, 2010
TBT update (chart)
Chart below.
Target longer term is 59.00 - 60.00 (over several months). Shorter term targets are the horizontal price levels, for now. More precise targets short-term to follow.
I'm using TBT as one of my multi-month holds, as well as swinging in and out of it.
See comments in chart. Double click chart to enlarge it.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Target longer term is 59.00 - 60.00 (over several months). Shorter term targets are the horizontal price levels, for now. More precise targets short-term to follow.
I'm using TBT as one of my multi-month holds, as well as swinging in and out of it.
See comments in chart. Double click chart to enlarge it.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Friday, January 22, 2010
TBT back in the buy zone, maybe... considering again
TBT is back in the buy zone, maybe... considering again... this is something I want to hold for weeks or months... had some tbt before, then took profits in it..
more analysis to follow....
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
more analysis to follow....
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
friday ramblings (and Thurs eve / Friday pre-market ES Futures)
346
dont think vxx will get over 32.11 today... last 3202 .. 3211 Resistance
343
oh wow vxx near 32.00 target now...didnt expect that today... selling a lil more vxx ... 9.77%..... 29.15ish buy to 32.00 vxx sell... almost $2 profit
335
next week should see at least 1114 spx it seems
331
75% dxd got sold when dow hit 10,200 today... and bought more ddm down there too... still have 25% the dxd (short dow)
324
expecting more SPX downside in coming weeks,,, but expecting bounce up and backtest first
322
PFE holding up well in this onslaught...holding its support... much smaller red candle in PFE... keeping long swing overnight
318
more sso 3695
311
tza double hi not dbl top at 983 hence the sale
310
sold some tza here at 980
308
tza 1060 is target but will sell today all but 25%
306
selling all the VXX large port except 25% of shrs... dow too close to support......... out with 8.03% profits on most VXX
302
10,236 dow target from earlier today... hit 10, 241,,,, close enough,.,, sold some more dxd
259
PFE has support at 1893.... i'll stay in..... prob over weekend unless it surges
256
i always scale in near the targets ... else i would never have gotten dxd at 10754...bought near 10720ish
255
in at DOW 10, 262... i missed the 10754 trgt by 25 points or so... maybe this target off too a lil???a
254
now both long and short the dow LOL....... in large port... in at DOW 10, 262
252
DOW close to horiz support at 10236
251
sell more DXD at dow 10236 hit
249
i might keep the PFE long over weekend... the candle red is not that big of a body
248
selling 25% the dxd ... taking profits
246
selling some now at 3107...have lots of shares in vxx
240
thinking spx will see 1112 today... last 1105
238
dont think we see 10,200 today... but would be ok :)
236
i will SELL my DXD at dow 10,200ish.... last dow 10.298... bought around 10,720ish (shorted) (from large port swing,,, not small port)3105/2915
217
pfe 1927 1938 targets....for now......then re-eval
216
pfe last 1921... a drop to 1915 would be ok
215
pfe recovering....
213
still in sso pfe
212
pfe crawling higher... watching... last 1917
210
vix looking bullish (bearish spx) ..
202
look at the spy daily candle...more of a spin top type thinng
201
today is not as strong a trend down day as yest ... u could get the bounce
151
theres R at spx 1123 now
145
sso at that 3767....watching
125
sso 3767 mental stop
124
pfe poss asc triangle bullish 10min chrt
123
charts still say higher sso pfe intraday....from these levels...to me
119
the daily candle today is diff then yest... suggests indecision chop... consolodating... i see lower prices too... but bounce up daytrades also
114
1000 shrs more pfe 1921 small port... pfe cost avg now 1929
111
pfe building a base near the 1916 support...1921 last
101
the VXX 15min is coiling
1259
charts still suggest higher sso pfe intraday for daytrade...watching...
1239
tza should see lower than curr 942
1236
500 sso 3814 small
port
looks ready to finally break the .22
1232
might buy more sso limit 3803.... last 3807
1231
sso should break the 38.22... last 3808
1228
bull tigetr sso 89% with hold over .97
1225
if 37.97 holds...very nice sso
1225
sso looking much healthier here now
1222
if pfe doesn hold here around .30 could see .l6 next
1219
watching to see if vxx holds mini supp at 2974...last 2976...
1215
sso 3783 held so far...only hit .85 i think .. missed a limit buy sso 3783 on the large port by 2 cents
1213
tza R 964...see what happens if gets there...last 952
1211
yes. sso headed for .83 as expected.......last .86 ... see if it holds
1203
3min sso in nasty lil downtrend....
1203
sso charts suggest under 3990 before any up...maybe .83? last 3794
1202
there is kind of a lopsided bull inv HS in sso 10min ...but strguggling
1159
pfe broke over its intraday DTL, and backtesting it now... looking for bounce back up. rsi stoch look good. rsi trendline support holding....
1154
also poss cup handlle bullish in pfe.....daytrade only
1153
PFE intraday has all kindsa things going on... up channel, bull flag, bear wedge....
1147
rough targets in PFE.... will revise later... 1942, 1960, 1974, 1989, 2010, 2036
1147
i will not be long over weekend with chart like this in spy, for me...if chart changes, maybe then
1126
we will see ... PFE came up on my screener, then i looked at chart and liked it....
1124
ok...long PFE 1937.. loooks better than sso to me... 1000 shares small port
1106
out at 3817.... will look to re-enter onn small port... saved the loss, took a lil profit
1103
stop sso 3814 on small port.. if doesnt hold there can always buy back...lock a small profit, recover from the mess on trip down to 3760
1101
ok seeing if 3823 R holds or breaks...in sso
1101
tza 927 poss buy....last 943
1100
charts still say higher sso... last 3807
1056
sso bull diverg still forming that points to 3877 then 3893 if it fulfills.... still not confirmed or finished... could easily end at 3816 instead.... trying to trade those setups here
1054
3783 sso still holds...last 3794
1052
the inv bull HS continues to form in spx sso
1049
sso at 3784 now but not adding any yet
1046
3795 3783 micro support in sso
1044
sso hit 3815 or one cent under the 3816 target and backed down...looking for it to hold 3783
1037
poss sell sso 3814...watching...lsat 3800
1033
possibly buy more sso 3785/75ish if able...none yet
1032
lookinhg for poss inv HS min 3min to form in sso spx. if not, sso R around 38.19
1030
sso crouching tiger 84% confid...will try to buy on pullback if it comes... else just keep the curr pos
1029
wow i might not get to add another piece of sso.... moved up faster than i thought... interesting...
1027
DOW 10,200ish is my approx target for the mid-term DXD i bought around 10,720ish
1026
the 15min bull diverg spx sso continues to form,,,, among other "bounce" indicators....
1025
small port--- looking to add 500 shrs more sso... not yet... last 3770
1019
yea 1105/03 support...just thought it would bounce a lil 1108... THAT did not happn
1014
my tza longer trgt... 1057... last 967
1007
SPX just hit my 1008 target from last nights post... see what happens here... expecting bounce here....
1004
the 15min spx is forming a bull divergence, not completed yet
1001
there is a bullish crouching tiger forming sso.. 73% confid level (which is low for entry, implies some consolodation or chop... also it is CONTRATREND so bounce up is limited) .. nonetheless i remain long the sso from 3805 daytrade.... last 3807
952
in sso 3805
950
limit buy 500 sso small port 3801 if filled...last 3805
945
considering sso long...no entry yet... last 3810
940
spx hit the 1112 target from yest, low of 1110, last 1112
920
ES array approx 1100.25, 1105, 1111, 1116, 1119, 1124, with ES at 1109.50
SPX expectations still the same as post below http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2010/01/spx-111208-next-dow-10200ish.html
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
dont think vxx will get over 32.11 today... last 3202 .. 3211 Resistance
343
oh wow vxx near 32.00 target now...didnt expect that today... selling a lil more vxx ... 9.77%..... 29.15ish buy to 32.00 vxx sell... almost $2 profit
335
next week should see at least 1114 spx it seems
331
75% dxd got sold when dow hit 10,200 today... and bought more ddm down there too... still have 25% the dxd (short dow)
324
expecting more SPX downside in coming weeks,,, but expecting bounce up and backtest first
322
PFE holding up well in this onslaught...holding its support... much smaller red candle in PFE... keeping long swing overnight
318
more sso 3695
311
tza double hi not dbl top at 983 hence the sale
310
sold some tza here at 980
308
tza 1060 is target but will sell today all but 25%
306
selling all the VXX large port except 25% of shrs... dow too close to support......... out with 8.03% profits on most VXX
302
10,236 dow target from earlier today... hit 10, 241,,,, close enough,.,, sold some more dxd
259
PFE has support at 1893.... i'll stay in..... prob over weekend unless it surges
256
i always scale in near the targets ... else i would never have gotten dxd at 10754...bought near 10720ish
255
in at DOW 10, 262... i missed the 10754 trgt by 25 points or so... maybe this target off too a lil???a
254
now both long and short the dow LOL....... in large port... in at DOW 10, 262
252
DOW close to horiz support at 10236
251
sell more DXD at dow 10236 hit
249
i might keep the PFE long over weekend... the candle red is not that big of a body
248
selling 25% the dxd ... taking profits
246
selling some now at 3107...have lots of shares in vxx
240
thinking spx will see 1112 today... last 1105
238
dont think we see 10,200 today... but would be ok :)
236
i will SELL my DXD at dow 10,200ish.... last dow 10.298... bought around 10,720ish (shorted) (from large port swing,,, not small port)3105/2915
217
pfe 1927 1938 targets....for now......then re-eval
216
pfe last 1921... a drop to 1915 would be ok
215
pfe recovering....
213
still in sso pfe
212
pfe crawling higher... watching... last 1917
210
vix looking bullish (bearish spx) ..
202
look at the spy daily candle...more of a spin top type thinng
201
today is not as strong a trend down day as yest ... u could get the bounce
151
theres R at spx 1123 now
145
sso at that 3767....watching
125
sso 3767 mental stop
124
pfe poss asc triangle bullish 10min chrt
123
charts still say higher sso pfe intraday....from these levels...to me
119
the daily candle today is diff then yest... suggests indecision chop... consolodating... i see lower prices too... but bounce up daytrades also
114
1000 shrs more pfe 1921 small port... pfe cost avg now 1929
111
pfe building a base near the 1916 support...1921 last
101
the VXX 15min is coiling
1259
charts still suggest higher sso pfe intraday for daytrade...watching...
1239
tza should see lower than curr 942
1236
500 sso 3814 small
port
looks ready to finally break the .22
1232
might buy more sso limit 3803.... last 3807
1231
sso should break the 38.22... last 3808
1228
bull tigetr sso 89% with hold over .97
1225
if 37.97 holds...very nice sso
1225
sso looking much healthier here now
1222
if pfe doesn hold here around .30 could see .l6 next
1219
watching to see if vxx holds mini supp at 2974...last 2976...
1215
sso 3783 held so far...only hit .85 i think .. missed a limit buy sso 3783 on the large port by 2 cents
1213
tza R 964...see what happens if gets there...last 952
1211
yes. sso headed for .83 as expected.......last .86 ... see if it holds
1203
3min sso in nasty lil downtrend....
1203
sso charts suggest under 3990 before any up...maybe .83? last 3794
1202
there is kind of a lopsided bull inv HS in sso 10min ...but strguggling
1159
pfe broke over its intraday DTL, and backtesting it now... looking for bounce back up. rsi stoch look good. rsi trendline support holding....
1154
also poss cup handlle bullish in pfe.....daytrade only
1153
PFE intraday has all kindsa things going on... up channel, bull flag, bear wedge....
1147
rough targets in PFE.... will revise later... 1942, 1960, 1974, 1989, 2010, 2036
1147
i will not be long over weekend with chart like this in spy, for me...if chart changes, maybe then
1126
we will see ... PFE came up on my screener, then i looked at chart and liked it....
1124
ok...long PFE 1937.. loooks better than sso to me... 1000 shares small port
1106
out at 3817.... will look to re-enter onn small port... saved the loss, took a lil profit
1103
stop sso 3814 on small port.. if doesnt hold there can always buy back...lock a small profit, recover from the mess on trip down to 3760
1101
ok seeing if 3823 R holds or breaks...in sso
1101
tza 927 poss buy....last 943
1100
charts still say higher sso... last 3807
1056
sso bull diverg still forming that points to 3877 then 3893 if it fulfills.... still not confirmed or finished... could easily end at 3816 instead.... trying to trade those setups here
1054
3783 sso still holds...last 3794
1052
the inv bull HS continues to form in spx sso
1049
sso at 3784 now but not adding any yet
1046
3795 3783 micro support in sso
1044
sso hit 3815 or one cent under the 3816 target and backed down...looking for it to hold 3783
1037
poss sell sso 3814...watching...lsat 3800
1033
possibly buy more sso 3785/75ish if able...none yet
1032
lookinhg for poss inv HS min 3min to form in sso spx. if not, sso R around 38.19
1030
sso crouching tiger 84% confid...will try to buy on pullback if it comes... else just keep the curr pos
1029
wow i might not get to add another piece of sso.... moved up faster than i thought... interesting...
1027
DOW 10,200ish is my approx target for the mid-term DXD i bought around 10,720ish
1026
the 15min bull diverg spx sso continues to form,,,, among other "bounce" indicators....
1025
small port--- looking to add 500 shrs more sso... not yet... last 3770
1019
yea 1105/03 support...just thought it would bounce a lil 1108... THAT did not happn
1014
my tza longer trgt... 1057... last 967
1007
SPX just hit my 1008 target from last nights post... see what happens here... expecting bounce here....
1004
the 15min spx is forming a bull divergence, not completed yet
1001
there is a bullish crouching tiger forming sso.. 73% confid level (which is low for entry, implies some consolodation or chop... also it is CONTRATREND so bounce up is limited) .. nonetheless i remain long the sso from 3805 daytrade.... last 3807
952
in sso 3805
950
limit buy 500 sso small port 3801 if filled...last 3805
945
considering sso long...no entry yet... last 3810
940
spx hit the 1112 target from yest, low of 1110, last 1112
920
ES array approx 1100.25, 1105, 1111, 1116, 1119, 1124, with ES at 1109.50
SPX expectations still the same as post below http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2010/01/spx-111208-next-dow-10200ish.html
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
VXX sold 29.50 pre-market
small portfolio-- sold remaining 500 shares VXX pre-mkt 29.50 ... will look to re-enter later. VXX may decide to backtest .. took profits from 2932
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
834 page impressions/views today on blog
There were 834 page impressions/views today on this blog.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Thursday, January 21, 2010
thursday summary
SUMMARY
4-6% profits in TZA swing taken.
1% profits taken in VXX, but on large position, many shares.
2 cent loss, near breakeven on the QQQQ short.
Yesterday was a good day,,,, today was great.... not everyday can be a great one,,, some have losses too... or small profits...
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
SPX 1112/08 next, DOW 10,200ish
I'll be looking at charts more closely, doing further analysis, but right now, the most likely scenario, as I see the charts, is for SPX to decline further to 1112 (actually 1108 is my real target, but stall and possible halt at 1112). Then a rise up to 1134 /36. Then likely back down again, toward 1085 (more precise targets to be calculated later).
A bounce tomorrow "seems" like it should happen, but I'm thinking that SPX sees 1112 / 1108 before 1136. But of course, Mr. Market might decide to bypass all that, and shoot upward in a rally tomorrow from 1116 (last SPX).
This is a tough one... i expected the 1112 today... now spx might get 1108 since 1112 not hit today ... got the 1115 as i expected but not 1112
60 min spx suggests sideways consolodation at least, with that possible 1112/08 ... unless there is a gap up in morn.
Dow "ballpark" target down is 10,200..... I'm in DXD from 10,700ish
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
A bounce tomorrow "seems" like it should happen, but I'm thinking that SPX sees 1112 / 1108 before 1136. But of course, Mr. Market might decide to bypass all that, and shoot upward in a rally tomorrow from 1116 (last SPX).
Last SPX was 1116. There is also Horizontal resistance at 1132 that would need to be hurdled in order to get the 1134/36 ... a stall would be expected at 1132, and a possible halt there and turn back down.
60 min spx suggests sideways consolodation at least, with that possible 1112/08 ... unless there is a gap up in morn.
Dow "ballpark" target down is 10,200..... I'm in DXD from 10,700ish
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
1144 Page impressions / views yesterday
Some of you might be wondering about the number of views / page impressions to this blog.
Today, there were 1,144 page impressions / views. Yesterday 1,133 for the day.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Today, there were 1,144 page impressions / views. Yesterday 1,133 for the day.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Thurs ramblings (and Wednesday eve / Thurs morning pre-market ES )
SUMMARY
Well the SPX did hit 1115 today as i expected and posted this morn, as big a drop as that seemed at the time. It did NOT hit 1112 as i expected. the qqqq short exited breakeven. the vxx did nicely. and took some profits in tza swing. overall a good day, not great, not bad, but good (from profit perspective). Took 4.1 to 5.3% profits in the swing I entered yesterday at 906 and 896. Took only 1% on daytrade VXX but it was on a lot of shares. Still have some VXX as swing.
404
just sold 700 shrs
vxx afterhours at the 2944... took
profits
small port still has 500 shrs left
i will slowly sell
some vxx AH from large port... nice
prices here at .50....over the HOD
358
those 5 candles in 60min tza r bullish for tza
351
sell 700 shrs VXX 2944 limit if able from small port
344
qqqq shorts...carefull....should have broeken by nowl..titening stops
343
2964 vxx trgt
342
will prob sell some vxx from small port tday... sell 700 shrs keep 500
340
small port qqqq covered for 2 cent loss.... cant risk it in small port
339
4553 stop needed on small port...brekaeven
327
4473 qqqq downide target (not tday)
325
qqqqq could do 4560 and still be valid but i dont wanna see it go there...last 4550
317
observing if the 4550 qqqq was converted to resist
314
qqqq under 4555 ok for shorts.... over that its iffy
313
that should give 4530 in 7 minutes after brk sustain
313
qqqq at 4547...support that needs to break sustain under 4546
312
qqqq charts suggest 4530 test... poss break lower
311
vxx full recovered now.... :)
310
spx 1112 still target... last 1117
310
bear HS in qqqq continues to setup as speculated b4
308
pop to 4556 from here in qqqq is ok....last 4548
305
CANCELLING the 4565 limit short more qqqq.....unfilled :(
304
nervous qqqq shorts could cover here near breakeven, or limit to breakeven... i'll stay short
302
vxx still looks good per the trade premise...its just bouncing around here...its volatile
300
still hanging out at 4565 to short qqq....unfilled
255
the qqqq bear HS seems to be forming
254
yea...spx unable to sustain over that 1122
252
hit 4563 exactly and turned down...no 4565 fill
250
theres 4563...still limit 4565 short
244
might bounce to .63 idk about .65...last 4560
243
LOL just missed order...not filled...typed too slow
241
limit short 500 shrs more qqqq 4565 if filled in small port
235
looking for qqqq to setup bear HS on 3min chart
233
wow vxx drops to 2901...volatile .. limit order to buy more filled (large port)
231
spx near 1122...watching to see if it can sustain over it
227
qqqq needs over 4566 R tho
225
vxx doesnt care... still near HOD
224
pumping qqqq...see if over 4564...
214
vxx recovered nicely from 2916...now 2934
212
qqqq mental stop 4560
210
shorting the qqqq here 4550 .. 500 shrs small port
205
vxx crouching tiger 84% confidence now....last vxx 2926.. note that 84% and 96% are a big difference tho... with 99% max #
204
spx STILL remains below that 1122.....
203
but if i didnt have other positions i would prob but the tza 930/31
202
tza 930 with tite stop could work here...but i'm waiting to buy
158
tza approaching poss buy zone here for me... not yet... last 934
156
see if tza holds 930...last 934
155
spx weakening on the 3min here... 1119 last... still under that 1122...........
148
vxx down now to 2920.... still ok tho
140
spx still needs over 1122 from bulls...else i think the 1115 cracks to 1112 target... last 1120
134
larger port taking some profits in vxx here.... 2936... small port no sale, holding
133
VXX is RIGHT AT DTL resistance now... testing it... looking for break higher, then poss backtest....
130
yes........vxx new HOD :)
123
spx 1112 is target next...last 1117
110
oops...typo... its marubozu candle... very bullish candle (vix).. technically not marubozu cuz small tail, but close enough for me
109
VIX continues its march upwards... at high of day... marumbi candle
107
if bulls dont get it over 1122,,,,the 1115 should crack lower, methinks...last 1117
105
charts suggest 1115 will break lower....after maybe 1122 first ... bulls need to push over 1122
104
heres 1115 test.........
102
there goes tza up.......to test the 957 maybe.....last 947
101
DOW down over 200 points is a big thing these days... last down 208
1250
vxx targets 2953 2964 and 2997 to start--much higher later..past 31.00
1249
vxx targets 2964 and 2997 to start--much higher later..past 31.00
1248
stop 27.00 and 26 on the vxx for now......wide stops
1247
VXX very volatile and only to be used with appropriate management of money
1247
large port...increasing vxx to 30% port if able...limit 2907 and 2853.... dont think they will get filled.....
1240
look at breakout on 60min vix
1235
LOADED in
VXX.......volatile.....looking for
breakout.......higher risk high return... large port 25% in VXX ...loaded
1233
small port....1000 vxx at the mkt
1227
look at the V in VXX 60 min....15min :)
1225
watch 1131/1127 SPX...if it holds R... bearish .. i'm waiting up there for poss re-short
1222
tza charts are starting to form a pattern that usually goes down, up, down.... its in the "down" part now... looking for re-entry....then rre-test of 956
1220
wow this qld is all over the place....ah its COILING now...qld...
1213
charts suggest that tza has unfinished business on the upside, but no re-entry yet for me
1152
SPX hit 1115.63 !!!! yea :) as expected at 11:42am
1145
WOW 5817 QLD....glad i got out of that mess at 5847
1144
going strong vxx...
no plans to sell this today
1144
VXX rite at R here... 2906... R 2909/ 2923
1142
spx could see 1115 today... last 1121 .. dont think we will CLOSE 1115 but could hit it
1140
vxx rockin....up 3.92% today :)
1139
looking for new entries in tza sds qid...none yet....
1127
i think tza needs a little more churn first b4 pop... last 938...think it will go down a lil first or churn
1116
grrr out of qld...mite want .30....took loss on that one...smaller positino tho
1103
large port qld i'll sell some limit 5912.... small port holding it all
1102
5913 qld R...last 5900
1058
QLD starting to form a crouching tiger bullish, but early... only 58% confid
1054
QLD stop 58.47 for now
1053
hit .80,,,,filled the .87
1052
qld will prob hit .81 and fill the .87
1051
3 cents from fill
1047
qld order not filled...being patient...might miss it....
1042
QLD buy lim 5887 if filled.... 300 shrs in small porta
1038
preparing to buy QLD....
1036
small port still has VXX.... up 2.77% today but currently red -2.33%
1035
ok...small port stopped out at .37.... for 3.3% overnight
1034
small port stop 937 or take prifts here 944
1032
small port still holding....stop 921 in case of sudded drop in tza
1031
3.3% profits on the
906 tza...from last nite swing
1028
see if tza stalls at 930/33
1027
small port out of sds at only small profit but still tza in small port thats making profits now....
1026
large port--- 3393 / 96 limits filled :) :)
1025
blasted thru 3384 trgt.... last 3391 ... stall at 3393/96?
1023
interim trgt 3384,,,on way to real trgt in sds 3393 .. last 3374
1023
3384 sds next target.. last 3370
1018
133t spx bear HS...looking to reenter sds
1005
stopped out sds .37....took small profit on small port
1004
sds stop .37
955
the 3min forms a HS (currently forming)
955
nervous tza swing could exit here with small profit /breakeven... i am staying in
953
cancell 500 sds for small port...no buying power lol
951
buy 500 more sds 3350 limit if filled
949
stop 3334 over cost...free ride
948
large port selling some sds here for 0.78% profit in 10 minutes... small port holding
946
3353 hit and immediately backed off...ok on first try....
944
sds 3353 stall expectede..last 3341
941
if SDS gets a bull crouching tiger (bear spx) then I will buy more sds.... later...
935
in sds 33.32....500 shares small port
932
grr i wanted to short MS at 30.69 but it gapped down at 30.09...missed that one
925
ES remains in the coil still, with boundries of 1132/37
8:21
TRADE IDEA: I am considering SHORTING MS today. Daily and 60 min suggest more downside. Will probably see if MS has any bounce, and try to short into it. Possible swing trade to hold for a 1-5 days.
8:21
Right now, futures are basically flat. But ES futures made an overnight high of 1139.25 on the 1:00 AM candle, and a low of 1130.75 on the 5:00 AM candle. They bounced off 1130.75 to 1138, and now back down to 1135. If ES stays between 1137 and 1131, they would continue in the coil that is under formation now. If this coil forms, and velocity does not increase, then the ES could trade most of the day in a narrow range, until 3:14 PM. Of course, at 9:30 AM volume will increase, and could easily cause some larger moves outside the current coil.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Well the SPX did hit 1115 today as i expected and posted this morn, as big a drop as that seemed at the time. It did NOT hit 1112 as i expected. the qqqq short exited breakeven. the vxx did nicely. and took some profits in tza swing. overall a good day, not great, not bad, but good (from profit perspective). Took 4.1 to 5.3% profits in the swing I entered yesterday at 906 and 896. Took only 1% on daytrade VXX but it was on a lot of shares. Still have some VXX as swing.
404
just sold 700 shrs
vxx afterhours at the 2944... took
profits
small port still has 500 shrs left
i will slowly sell
some vxx AH from large port... nice
prices here at .50....over the HOD
358
those 5 candles in 60min tza r bullish for tza
351
sell 700 shrs VXX 2944 limit if able from small port
344
qqqq shorts...carefull....should have broeken by nowl..titening stops
343
2964 vxx trgt
342
will prob sell some vxx from small port tday... sell 700 shrs keep 500
340
small port qqqq covered for 2 cent loss.... cant risk it in small port
339
4553 stop needed on small port...brekaeven
327
4473 qqqq downide target (not tday)
325
qqqqq could do 4560 and still be valid but i dont wanna see it go there...last 4550
317
observing if the 4550 qqqq was converted to resist
314
qqqq under 4555 ok for shorts.... over that its iffy
313
that should give 4530 in 7 minutes after brk sustain
313
qqqq at 4547...support that needs to break sustain under 4546
312
qqqq charts suggest 4530 test... poss break lower
311
vxx full recovered now.... :)
310
spx 1112 still target... last 1117
310
bear HS in qqqq continues to setup as speculated b4
308
pop to 4556 from here in qqqq is ok....last 4548
305
CANCELLING the 4565 limit short more qqqq.....unfilled :(
304
nervous qqqq shorts could cover here near breakeven, or limit to breakeven... i'll stay short
302
vxx still looks good per the trade premise...its just bouncing around here...its volatile
300
still hanging out at 4565 to short qqq....unfilled
255
the qqqq bear HS seems to be forming
254
yea...spx unable to sustain over that 1122
252
hit 4563 exactly and turned down...no 4565 fill
250
theres 4563...still limit 4565 short
244
might bounce to .63 idk about .65...last 4560
243
LOL just missed order...not filled...typed too slow
241
limit short 500 shrs more qqqq 4565 if filled in small port
235
looking for qqqq to setup bear HS on 3min chart
233
wow vxx drops to 2901...volatile .. limit order to buy more filled (large port)
231
spx near 1122...watching to see if it can sustain over it
227
qqqq needs over 4566 R tho
225
vxx doesnt care... still near HOD
224
pumping qqqq...see if over 4564...
214
vxx recovered nicely from 2916...now 2934
212
qqqq mental stop 4560
210
shorting the qqqq here 4550 .. 500 shrs small port
205
vxx crouching tiger 84% confidence now....last vxx 2926.. note that 84% and 96% are a big difference tho... with 99% max #
204
spx STILL remains below that 1122.....
203
but if i didnt have other positions i would prob but the tza 930/31
202
tza 930 with tite stop could work here...but i'm waiting to buy
158
tza approaching poss buy zone here for me... not yet... last 934
156
see if tza holds 930...last 934
155
spx weakening on the 3min here... 1119 last... still under that 1122...........
148
vxx down now to 2920.... still ok tho
140
spx still needs over 1122 from bulls...else i think the 1115 cracks to 1112 target... last 1120
134
larger port taking some profits in vxx here.... 2936... small port no sale, holding
133
VXX is RIGHT AT DTL resistance now... testing it... looking for break higher, then poss backtest....
130
yes........vxx new HOD :)
123
spx 1112 is target next...last 1117
110
oops...typo... its marubozu candle... very bullish candle (vix).. technically not marubozu cuz small tail, but close enough for me
109
VIX continues its march upwards... at high of day... marumbi candle
107
if bulls dont get it over 1122,,,,the 1115 should crack lower, methinks...last 1117
105
charts suggest 1115 will break lower....after maybe 1122 first ... bulls need to push over 1122
104
heres 1115 test.........
102
there goes tza up.......to test the 957 maybe.....last 947
101
DOW down over 200 points is a big thing these days... last down 208
1250
vxx targets 2953 2964 and 2997 to start--much higher later..past 31.00
1249
vxx targets 2964 and 2997 to start--much higher later..past 31.00
1248
stop 27.00 and 26 on the vxx for now......wide stops
1247
VXX very volatile and only to be used with appropriate management of money
1247
large port...increasing vxx to 30% port if able...limit 2907 and 2853.... dont think they will get filled.....
1240
look at breakout on 60min vix
1235
LOADED in
VXX.......volatile.....looking for
breakout.......higher risk high return... large port 25% in VXX ...loaded
1233
small port....1000 vxx at the mkt
1227
look at the V in VXX 60 min....15min :)
1225
watch 1131/1127 SPX...if it holds R... bearish .. i'm waiting up there for poss re-short
1222
tza charts are starting to form a pattern that usually goes down, up, down.... its in the "down" part now... looking for re-entry....then rre-test of 956
1220
wow this qld is all over the place....ah its COILING now...qld...
1213
charts suggest that tza has unfinished business on the upside, but no re-entry yet for me
1152
SPX hit 1115.63 !!!! yea :) as expected at 11:42am
1145
WOW 5817 QLD....glad i got out of that mess at 5847
1144
going strong vxx...
no plans to sell this today
1144
VXX rite at R here... 2906... R 2909/ 2923
1142
spx could see 1115 today... last 1121 .. dont think we will CLOSE 1115 but could hit it
1140
vxx rockin....up 3.92% today :)
1139
looking for new entries in tza sds qid...none yet....
1127
i think tza needs a little more churn first b4 pop... last 938...think it will go down a lil first or churn
1116
grrr out of qld...mite want .30....took loss on that one...smaller positino tho
1103
large port qld i'll sell some limit 5912.... small port holding it all
1102
5913 qld R...last 5900
1058
QLD starting to form a crouching tiger bullish, but early... only 58% confid
1054
QLD stop 58.47 for now
1053
hit .80,,,,filled the .87
1052
qld will prob hit .81 and fill the .87
1051
3 cents from fill
1047
qld order not filled...being patient...might miss it....
1042
QLD buy lim 5887 if filled.... 300 shrs in small porta
1038
preparing to buy QLD....
1036
small port still has VXX.... up 2.77% today but currently red -2.33%
1035
ok...small port stopped out at .37.... for 3.3% overnight
1034
small port stop 937 or take prifts here 944
1032
small port still holding....stop 921 in case of sudded drop in tza
1031
3.3% profits on the
906 tza...from last nite swing
1028
see if tza stalls at 930/33
1027
small port out of sds at only small profit but still tza in small port thats making profits now....
1026
large port--- 3393 / 96 limits filled :) :)
1025
blasted thru 3384 trgt.... last 3391 ... stall at 3393/96?
1023
interim trgt 3384,,,on way to real trgt in sds 3393 .. last 3374
1023
3384 sds next target.. last 3370
1018
133t spx bear HS...looking to reenter sds
1005
stopped out sds .37....took small profit on small port
1004
sds stop .37
955
the 3min forms a HS (currently forming)
955
nervous tza swing could exit here with small profit /breakeven... i am staying in
953
cancell 500 sds for small port...no buying power lol
951
buy 500 more sds 3350 limit if filled
949
stop 3334 over cost...free ride
948
large port selling some sds here for 0.78% profit in 10 minutes... small port holding
946
3353 hit and immediately backed off...ok on first try....
944
sds 3353 stall expectede..last 3341
941
if SDS gets a bull crouching tiger (bear spx) then I will buy more sds.... later...
935
in sds 33.32....500 shares small port
932
grr i wanted to short MS at 30.69 but it gapped down at 30.09...missed that one
925
ES remains in the coil still, with boundries of 1132/37
8:21
TRADE IDEA: I am considering SHORTING MS today. Daily and 60 min suggest more downside. Will probably see if MS has any bounce, and try to short into it. Possible swing trade to hold for a 1-5 days.
8:21
Right now, futures are basically flat. But ES futures made an overnight high of 1139.25 on the 1:00 AM candle, and a low of 1130.75 on the 5:00 AM candle. They bounced off 1130.75 to 1138, and now back down to 1135. If ES stays between 1137 and 1131, they would continue in the coil that is under formation now. If this coil forms, and velocity does not increase, then the ES could trade most of the day in a narrow range, until 3:14 PM. Of course, at 9:30 AM volume will increase, and could easily cause some larger moves outside the current coil.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Wedn wrapup / summary
Well today was not a great day for the 25k small portfolio, surprisingly. The value of small port is higher today than yesterday, but stopped out of several positions with small profits or breakeven. VXX is down but volatility is expected on that position. New TZA swing was entered 9.06 and 8.96 (right near afternoon low).
only daily 2.3% gain on small port, about $596 in profits, or $596 in profits, in large part due to closed swing TZA from yest
The large port did well, due to fact that I can scale in / out easier, and assume more risk. The small port would do better if I assumed more risk, but I'm not comfortable doing that with such limited capital. Capital preservation trumps profits.
Will try again tomorrow.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
It's frustrating to hit the targets, as happened today, but not be able to lock in better profits. The targets were again hit within 1-2 cents.
only daily 2.3% gain on small port, about $596 in profits, or $596 in profits, in large part due to closed swing TZA from yest
The large port did well, due to fact that I can scale in / out easier, and assume more risk. The small port would do better if I assumed more risk, but I'm not comfortable doing that with such limited capital. Capital preservation trumps profits.
Will try again tomorrow.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
wedn ramblings (and Tues eve ES futures)
401
macd rsi stoch on the spx daily all look bearish
354
tza beautifully held the 8.96 (8.95 low)
347
896 tza target hit.... see how low it goes under it
344
tza 898....see if 896 is hit, and holds
330
tza approaching 896...last is 900
321
unbeleiveable... hpq missed my 5223 limit sell by one cent...only made 5222....
319
risk of tza overnight is retest of 865, or even a lower low. But, charts suggest poss that TZA will make a higher low today, and then move up in the coming days.... unsure yet on whether i will hold as swing
319
i just might keep some tza overnight as swing from 906 buy
313
in tza 906...filled
310
1000 tza 906 lim small port if filld
304
considering re-entry into tza...looking for entry--- none yet
258
small port---took
profits in hpq (scalp) 5214 stopped out
257
limit 5223 not filled...missed by one cent (lg port)
256
stop 5214
255
5227 hpq is the "real" first target... been sellin on way up in large port... trying for .27 in the small port if able
252
5208 stop
250
5223 5227 trgts
248
qqqq stuk 4575,,,, hpq moving up stilL
247
hpq 5204 stop
246
5211 target hit....
243
tza headed for 896 mentioned b4...maybe... last 908
241
5198 stop hpq
238
stop 5193 hpq
237
target achieved....partial fill on 5203 hpq small piece sale
236
hpq outperforming the qqqq
234
for small port will sell hpq manually
234
i will sell some hpq at the targets 5204 5211 5223 thru limit orders...and sell rest manually
232
hpq needs to break 52.00...last 5199
227
5204 first hpq target, then 5223
226
hpq should get some shorts to cover here...watching to see if they cover, or sell/short instead
225
5204 first hpq target
222
patiently waiting for hpq.... its still ok...
220
hpq 5144 stop...will raise later
218
i will NOT hold HPQ overnight...daytrade only.,... dangerous 60 min chart potentially
214
tza might want 896... last 913
149
500 hpq 5190 long
129
stop 918 tza
123
stop 919 on 75% small port tza
120
charts still suggest a break lower, to me... no change
119
spy close to LOD test....
118
tza breaking up as expected... well on way to test highs actually
112
15 and 60 min charts suggest spx will break lower,,,, failure to break lower today could lead to loss of down momen tho.... and futures ES overnite shenanigans
106
tza forming 3min small asc triangle bullish...but needs to stay over 918ish for that
103
dow target down is 10421ish (not all today).. bounce up likely first to backtest
100
exiting rest of qqqq breakeven ...larger port (gone in small port already)
1256
the spx pattern in 15min usually breaks to downside.... could go either way, but the usual would be down .. last 1132
1255
even 1137/40 is ok for bears if bounce is contained there
1252
spx 60 minute suggests lower, to me... if spx stays under 1135... last spx 1132
1247
tza is coiling in 3min.......tza over 917 very bullish... idk if it will hold that or not
1244
1000 more tza 921... the 920 order cancelled
1243
1000 more tza 920 lim if filled
1242
tza chart suggests unfinished biz on the upside, tho 908 first could come... bias up for the tza .. last 919
1228
917 limit buy cancelled for now
1228
buying 1000 tza 9.20
1221
small port buying 1000 tza 9.17 if filled...last 920
1209
larger port selling more qqqq here at 4567/66
1203
stopped out of qqqq scalp breakeven on small port
1142
qqqq 4562 mental stop
1139
4558 stop qqqq for free ride
1133
stop 4547 on qqqq
1130
tza near 921 support...last 923... see if holds....microSup
1129
4547 qqqq mental stop
1121
qqqq daytrade targets 4573 4591 4611 4627. last 45.53
1118
500 more qqqq 45.53 small port
1111
poss vxx breakout higher in 6 mintues.... at 11:17am... last 2919
1110
limit sell some tza 10% at 9.35
1107
tza targets: 931, 936, 943, 984, 1027
1106
1027 tza.... interim targets coming....
1103
500 qqqq 45.64 small port
1049
tza is stuck..not moving...still have same targets on it
1033
vxx up 4.6% today
1029
200 shrs long FAS 8304 daytrade
1013
still holding some tza in large port from 865...small port gone...sold the small port too early to protect profits/loss
952
out of tza for now...took profits on 865 tza (breakeven on avg tza cost)
951
vxx doing well
949
stop 887 tza small port
946
tza testgin 898 .. large port selling some 898,,,,small port holding
938
nervous tza could exit here with small profit (tz avg cost 8.88)
934
raising tza stop to 878---- may sell b4 then but thats emergency hard stop
932
tza 894 898 R...then 9.31 target
932
vxx bought awahile ago at 29.33 is red now... but thats a longer term hold
930
in tza 8.65 buy from yest... tza at impt resist here 8.87 ... watching to see if holds or breaks higher. also have some tza from 9.16
9:10
ES testing impt intraday support at 1137 right now....
8:16 AM
tza afterhours target missed by one cent:
tza hit 8.86 just one cent from the 8.87 limit sell afterhours, so it was not filled. i'm cancelling that order now and will do manually, prob only sell during
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
macd rsi stoch on the spx daily all look bearish
354
tza beautifully held the 8.96 (8.95 low)
347
896 tza target hit.... see how low it goes under it
344
tza 898....see if 896 is hit, and holds
330
tza approaching 896...last is 900
321
unbeleiveable... hpq missed my 5223 limit sell by one cent...only made 5222....
319
risk of tza overnight is retest of 865, or even a lower low. But, charts suggest poss that TZA will make a higher low today, and then move up in the coming days.... unsure yet on whether i will hold as swing
319
i just might keep some tza overnight as swing from 906 buy
313
in tza 906...filled
310
1000 tza 906 lim small port if filld
304
considering re-entry into tza...looking for entry--- none yet
258
small port---took
profits in hpq (scalp) 5214 stopped out
257
limit 5223 not filled...missed by one cent (lg port)
256
stop 5214
255
5227 hpq is the "real" first target... been sellin on way up in large port... trying for .27 in the small port if able
252
5208 stop
250
5223 5227 trgts
248
qqqq stuk 4575,,,, hpq moving up stilL
247
hpq 5204 stop
246
5211 target hit....
243
tza headed for 896 mentioned b4...maybe... last 908
241
5198 stop hpq
238
stop 5193 hpq
237
target achieved....partial fill on 5203 hpq small piece sale
236
hpq outperforming the qqqq
234
for small port will sell hpq manually
234
i will sell some hpq at the targets 5204 5211 5223 thru limit orders...and sell rest manually
232
hpq needs to break 52.00...last 5199
227
5204 first hpq target, then 5223
226
hpq should get some shorts to cover here...watching to see if they cover, or sell/short instead
225
5204 first hpq target
222
patiently waiting for hpq.... its still ok...
220
hpq 5144 stop...will raise later
218
i will NOT hold HPQ overnight...daytrade only.,... dangerous 60 min chart potentially
214
tza might want 896... last 913
149
500 hpq 5190 long
129
stop 918 tza
123
stop 919 on 75% small port tza
120
charts still suggest a break lower, to me... no change
119
spy close to LOD test....
118
tza breaking up as expected... well on way to test highs actually
112
15 and 60 min charts suggest spx will break lower,,,, failure to break lower today could lead to loss of down momen tho.... and futures ES overnite shenanigans
106
tza forming 3min small asc triangle bullish...but needs to stay over 918ish for that
103
dow target down is 10421ish (not all today).. bounce up likely first to backtest
100
exiting rest of qqqq breakeven ...larger port (gone in small port already)
1256
the spx pattern in 15min usually breaks to downside.... could go either way, but the usual would be down .. last 1132
1255
even 1137/40 is ok for bears if bounce is contained there
1252
spx 60 minute suggests lower, to me... if spx stays under 1135... last spx 1132
1247
tza is coiling in 3min.......tza over 917 very bullish... idk if it will hold that or not
1244
1000 more tza 921... the 920 order cancelled
1243
1000 more tza 920 lim if filled
1242
tza chart suggests unfinished biz on the upside, tho 908 first could come... bias up for the tza .. last 919
1228
917 limit buy cancelled for now
1228
buying 1000 tza 9.20
1221
small port buying 1000 tza 9.17 if filled...last 920
1209
larger port selling more qqqq here at 4567/66
1203
stopped out of qqqq scalp breakeven on small port
1142
qqqq 4562 mental stop
1139
4558 stop qqqq for free ride
1133
stop 4547 on qqqq
1130
tza near 921 support...last 923... see if holds....microSup
1129
4547 qqqq mental stop
1121
qqqq daytrade targets 4573 4591 4611 4627. last 45.53
1118
500 more qqqq 45.53 small port
1111
poss vxx breakout higher in 6 mintues.... at 11:17am... last 2919
1110
limit sell some tza 10% at 9.35
1107
tza targets: 931, 936, 943, 984, 1027
1106
1027 tza.... interim targets coming....
1103
500 qqqq 45.64 small port
1049
tza is stuck..not moving...still have same targets on it
1033
vxx up 4.6% today
1029
200 shrs long FAS 8304 daytrade
1013
still holding some tza in large port from 865...small port gone...sold the small port too early to protect profits/loss
952
out of tza for now...took profits on 865 tza (breakeven on avg tza cost)
951
vxx doing well
949
stop 887 tza small port
946
tza testgin 898 .. large port selling some 898,,,,small port holding
938
nervous tza could exit here with small profit (tz avg cost 8.88)
934
raising tza stop to 878---- may sell b4 then but thats emergency hard stop
932
tza 894 898 R...then 9.31 target
932
vxx bought awahile ago at 29.33 is red now... but thats a longer term hold
930
in tza 8.65 buy from yest... tza at impt resist here 8.87 ... watching to see if holds or breaks higher. also have some tza from 9.16
9:10
ES testing impt intraday support at 1137 right now....
8:16 AM
tza afterhours target missed by one cent:
tza hit 8.86 just one cent from the 8.87 limit sell afterhours, so it was not filled. i'm cancelling that order now and will do manually, prob only sell during
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
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