thurs ramblings (and Wednesday eve / Thurs morning pre-market ES )

352
xlf made a higher high. higher low today. daily chrt

348
still no tech damage to xlf...

345
i'm holding onto xlf overnight... charts suggesst unfinished business on the upside....15 60 even some daily aspect

343
xlf is forming a daily hammer candle...bullish.. 1317 is ok... the best close is over 1441 xlf


340
LOL limit sell missed by one cent...grrr

340
hit the 1092 impt #

339
xlf 3min doing good

338
spx 3min weakening.... still bias up

336
hovering at the R implies break higher not lower....a

336
inability to headfake down suggests more up...they didnt bring down

335
theres a mildly strong 4 bar upchannel spx 15min chart

333
this 1090 is tough R tho... needs vol to crack it higher... 1099.50 spx


possible on a 1090 break
 
 
330
xlf 1 2 3 min charts all bullish still....could crack anytime tho

329
xlf wick to 14.53, close to my other llimit 1458

328
an xlf close over 1441 would be good for both xlf and spx

327
spx and xlf rather strong intraday here... could fall.... still see up...but fall caution

326
2 cents away from first limit sell 1444

325
during the decline... the rsi for xlf managed to stay well above its support line, not even close to testing it (bullish)

324
not sure i would even classify it as a coil anymore (bullish)

323
that coil in xlf is dissipating... xlf managed to stay in the top half of the triangl so it is now malformed,,, decreasing likelyhood that its a bear penna

322
purely from a tech view... i see UP HIGHER into the close clearly.. ... but a big volume move could destroy that... signals less relaiable last hours....

319
xlf over 1425 would be very bullish...idk if it can hold it...into the close, that is

316
10min immature bull cup handl in xlf

315
sso tagged 3660 and backed down... 11 cents short of 3671ish

314
charts still say UP to me....into the close.......but volume moves override the charts

313
xlf unable to break the R in the coil... first try....

312
IF xlf can break the coil.. a move up then down, then up i would expect.... would prob get a rather quick backtest back down

310
ok........xlf is RIGHT AT the coil R line.....heres the test, with volume.... perfect touch...last 1439

308
sso next target 3671...last 3649

307
xlf limit orders still in place to catch this... 1444 1447 1458...partial shares... no lim order for small port (manual)

306
xlf on the move....up .... it never hit the .17 area lower... :)

303
well xlf still looks good overnite to me, if it closes with charts looking this way. for course, could be rad diff in next 58min

257
sso has a target somewhere near 3680/90 if it breaks 3640ish (eyeball,,not precise calc)

254
xlf 3min charts suggesting UP

251
still got the xlf limit orders to sell partial shares.... 1444, 1447, 1458... smaller port, no limit order

250
that 1090/92 area was critical yesterday tooo... with the 15min candle close over 1091

249
bears are ok with spx under 1092//// above that...watch out

248
an xlf close over 1439 would be nice for swing long xlf position

246
conversely the spx does have a bullish falling wedge in the 60min... with a marginal break higher in it

244
xlf still in this coill..... poss bear pennant.. for those scared by that...could exit profitably here lol.. i remain in the xlf

243
xlf still in this coill.....

239
swings xlf can still exit now breakeven.... daytrades from 1414 can still take profits about 1% here (or 3% if using a 3x etf)

235
if xlf can hold 1423ish... it should propel up to its next target at 1444

233
i'd like to see xlf break higher out of this coil if keeping overnight, else this could turn intao a nasty bear pennant... !!!

226
SPX 60min shows a clear downchannel. Also the break of 1090ish was a rectangle break that measure to 1077ish... and it hit 1078 and did a minor bounce. often, this will result in a test of the DTL resistance line, currently at 1092.50 spx.  thus, a test of 1090 (horizon R) or 1092 "should" happen.. last 1085

220
the 1% xlf profits would be about 3% faz... i prefer to simply buy 3x number of xlf shares for same dollar profit, less percent (same result)

219
but a 1417 hold is preferable lol

218
xlf forming a coil that suggests 1413 possible...

203
that technique is short when stoch < 20... buy >80.. only when FIRST


ENTERING the 20/80.. futures traders use


that a lot.. to scalp or catch

momentum bursts
 
but other conditions


must be met too...to validate it
 
 
158
boso works best if day trend up, 60min up, 15min down reversing up... then buy at the stoch 85 in 15min... we dont have that here


154
for those that like BOSO method ...its now on the 15min.... to go long xlf... i'm not adding more

151
those not holding xlf for 1-4 days could sell half up here at 1437

150
lots of R in spx around here..... watching for fall....but stilll no short sig

149
so limit sell xlf pieces at 1444, 1447, 1458....

148
limit sell some xlf 1444...14447...

146
1minute xlf strengthening....

144
1443 spike expected in 7 minutes xlf... last 1439

143
limit sell a piece 14.58 xlf... lots of R there....

140
compare daily xlf candle to sso... xlf stronger

138
looking for daytrade short...no signal yet for me...

137
a drop to xlf 1417 would be painful to watch but not inflict any tech damange//// last 1434

135
IF XLF can make a higher high today then it will have a valid 60min upchannel and a 123 trend reversal

134
are the daytrade bears thinking "oh no...not a repeat of yesterday...??? move up???"

133
yea i thought about GS but didnt want overnite risk in that... xlf a lil safer

132
i expected a stall n move down first in xlf...that was easy.. elling more


daytrade up here 1439 into strghtn
 
 
131
ok filled ... 14.14 to 14.34 = 1.01%...or 3.03% using faz or 3x etf

129
it should be hitting 1435 to fill my 1434...grrr

127
1min chart weaker.... scalpers would take someprofit here 1431 or stop .29

126
selling a piece limit 1434 if filled

125
daytrade... still no


exit signal from the 1414 buy
 
122
took partial profits

122
grabbed 1% on a piece of the daytrade xlf... 1414 buy selll...1429a

121
preparing to take profit of 1-1.5% on the daytrade entry from 1414

120
2min chart says


"scalpers dont take profits yet" in

xlf.... over 1424 good
 
123
1435 stall in xlf is fine.. last 1430...moving up :) oh yea :)

115
ideally xlf will hold 1417 support.... 1424 last

114
the 133t chart mini target xlf pattern is about 1430ish...eyeball not precise

112
i'm starting to get a second double confirmation swing long xlf...not confirmed but forming... based on 20 indicators, and a landscape of 8 timeframes of the same symbol

109
again... another chance...nervous xlf can exit here breakeven or small profit... i'm staying...

107
xlf near the 15min boll band midpoint Resistance now... stall expected here, even pullback...

102
xlf tagged 1427 target exactly and backed off... still watching for reaction here

101
will prob get the1087... 3min suggests 1086

100pm
if 1428 breaks... momentum up...bak to 1435 next

1259
1424 to 1417 drop here would be ok....

1258
the .27 is not a limit order...may sell higher... manually

1257
NERVOUS XLF can exit here near breakeven, or at breakeven soon.... i'm staying in for now... only reducing risk selling a piece at .27 breakeven

1256
rather strong intraday here in xlf 1424/28

1255
yes. there it goes...broke the .21.. still needs .24....1428

1254
charts suggest 89% confidence the .21 will break higher,,,to me... last .20

1253
i will reduce risk at 1426-28ish (breakeven) due to large position.. will sell some of the xlf there

1252
1424 1428 msjor hurdles for xlf to get over higher

1251
a break of .21 xlf should pop it up with momen.. last 14.17

1250
xlf is still acting as expected...why i bought more... and daytrade signal at the 1414

1258
xlf avg cost 14.27... 75% position... i might not make the 4th buy

1246
xlf 25% more...buy 3of maybe 4... in at 14.14

1207
xlf 60min rsi is still above its support uptrend line... almost doing a perfect touch test of  it now... watching to see reaction at the trendline....


1205
that buy sso at spx 1077 was only valid for yest.. i cancelled that ... i prefer xlf for any longs now

1204
*bullish HS below

1204
if short, watching for poss inv HS formation in spx 15 and 60 min (only poss, only half formed)

1158
post at 1157 --- i'm only bullish for next 1-4 days

1157
i'm bearish mid term... but still bullish for a move up from this mess... these charts have the setup of "shorts are valid, but entry here will get whipsawed out and trapped short-term"... if there is a sustained break under the trendline from AUg then I'd become bearish short term as well as bear mid-term

1150
if the xlf trade setup premise breaks, i'll take a loss.. thus far, the premise is still valid, for me

1148
xlf has a wick to 1428---not sure if it means anything...last 1417

1138
SPX just marginally pierced it uptrend support line from august... watching for the reaction here... could fall further then backtest,,, or could hold.. last 1078.50 spx

1128
xlf 3min has developed a nasty looking chart... HS type thing... see if support holds that potential onslaught

1125
SPY 15min is setting up a triple bullish diverg .. of course vol could blast right thru it, but its there

1121
sso down 2%,,,, xlf down 1% (unrealized loss)

1119
xlf could go lower....the 3min charts are starting to show a bottoming process tho... last 14.20

1115
I have a mental stop on xlf at yesterday's low around 14.00.... i will not exit the trade just because it hits that #, but if it does not hold there, i will re-eval at that time. Don't like using hard stops because can get whipsawed out. 

i do have hard stop order with broker at 12.97 for now...but thats just in case of an emergency (where the broker is down and i can't enter an order).


 
1040
1106 first spx trgt


1113 1120
 
1038
xlf 60min chart .... target 14.83 ... last 14.34... with stalls in between... higher than 1483 poss but thats first trgt .. a 3.7% move to start

1036
my work suggests at least one more pop up in xlf... last 1428

1034
38.86 sso possible in coming days if it holds 36.50ish ... last 3663

1032
near boll band midpoint support in spx xlf.... spx 1090 last... 15minchart

1020
i bought more at 1428 cuz 1427 is a support level.... of course it could break,,, but bought some there

1019
xlf down 0.42% today vs down 0.67 spx

1014
the 60min XLF chart among other things... looks good swing setup ... rsi trendlines, macd, far away from DTL (plenty of room up to test DTL around 1493ish)... nice stoch, good price action, respecting support/res

1014
the xlf is swing... so spending some time in the red zone is ok....

1010
if xlf breaks 1423 it could drop quik

1010
25% more xlf here at 14.29

1007
looking at more xlf....

1005
ok sso at 3664 here near the 3661....see how it reacts

1005
considering SRS too... maybe 7.72

1003
TBT is setting up a bearish diverg that should push prices lower, back into a possible buy zone... looking at maybe 47.76,,,, 4727

958
forget sso.... i'll re-invest longs in xlf... chart seems better, surprisingly enough

955
at this moment, wiht these charts, i plan to hold these as swings sso xlf....of courtse if charts change by 3pm i'll exit

954
i want more sso but am waiting for it to slow down b4 adding more.... see if 1091 breaks ES... see if sso drops to 3668ish

953
xlf did a marginal break of its steep accelerated trendline,,, but i'm still bullish... the trendline was steep and not expected to maintain that level,,, and it is only marginal brk
 
 
948
in some xlf at 1437 .. starter position... 25%

946
3668 sso... will prob buy if it hits that... unsure

944
sold a piece of sso 3696 (scalp.. like a 2pt es).. took quik scalp profit... holding rest... will not post all scalps here,,,,

943
in 3686 sso....took some at 1091ish ES

942
1091 ES held first test....

940
1091 ES test coming... see if bounces

938
xlf is holding up much better than spx....

938
es 1094 broek.... 1091 next supp

933
ES testing first level support now 1095. then 1091 next S. ES not SPX

931
still have some of the


sso swing from few days ago...sold

most yest but kept 25%
 
930
xlf--- has gapped up OVER resistance 1444.... started watching that one yest. see if it holds support and over the gap.

8:54AM
ES 1091 is an important support area, with 1095 hold preferred. I'll be watching the action, looking to ADD to my SSO longs (and QQQQ, etc as menioned in post below). It's possible that the 1091/95 areas might be a good place to add SSO, but I'll wait to see what the charts look like when they hit there. Other buy/sell targets to follow later ....

8:52 AM
Yesterday Summary (Wednesday)
Technical Analysis is working. We got the hammer, the 1091 candle, and the start of an advance up.

Remember that 1091/92 area that I mentioned repeatedly yesterday? Needing a candle to close over it  to show bullishness?  We got the candle close on the 15min, and it was all up from that point on.

On several occassions yesterday I called for a hammer daily candle, which we did get. The high was also close to target (within 3 cents on SSO i believe).

Also yesterday the "swing long" setup / signals triggered, prompting me to hold some SSO overnight (I took profits on most of the SSO due to uncertainty of the reports this morning). Right now, SSO is up, having hit about 37.52 pre-market (from 3702 close yest)

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".