tuesday ramblings (and Mon nite futures)

354
oh... i mean i SOLD


some of the sso swing large port.....so i guess those


"sales" were trades
 
 
352
i did not make a single trade today lol ... still have the sso long.

331
15min bull divergences setting up. 60min rsi trendline support ok.. lots of stuff that says "chop or sideways with upward bias"

330
i like the charts long overnite... i know i'm in minority here... i want to get short again mid-term of course... at higher levels

329
sso 3691 holding ...barely... for now... could break of coure

324
sso near the 3691 now....last 3696

321
today... barely... qualifies as a key reversal day pattern

320
still long sso.... willprob hold overnite

319
i think...if we dont go up around 335...bears r in control

316
sso 60min rsi support line...is doing a touch of it now...still holding....

315
this is setting up a 3min bull diverg tho... could turn up b4 close at 4pm

314
then sso 3691 is next if 3708 not hold

313
grrr the 3714 sso didnt hold... see if3708 holds

311
these charts, rite now, to me,,, suggest sideways with slight up bias.... the way theylook now

309
if they push it up ... could get a 2 day bullish engulfing... last spx 1099... tho lately they have SOLD into the close

307
sso 60 min: stage 1 rsi swing failure (bullish) confirmed... stage 2 developing (not confirmed).... suggests still more up

302
thus far spx has held above the 1096, and close to the preferred 1100 holda

300
earlier, i was wrong..i had antipated the sso to hit 37.51 before 3708.... instead it came down first.... only hit 3745... but the 3740 area was close so i sold some up there b4

258
87% crouching tiger up from 81%... 97% if the 3713 holds

254
but crouch tiger a reasonable entry,,,or reason to hold the sso

252
81% bull crouching tiger sso if it holds 3714...only 81% suggests


chops,,, and poss failure
 
 
249
so sso did hit near 3708, as warned earlier. i'm still long sso tho

248
3819 also is a resistance zone

247
i dont expect the 3819 today

246
the sso 38.19 pattern and target is still valid thus far ... last 37.14...the 3819 target may not come today (if at all)

240
ok sso hit close to 2nd micro support 3708.... getting interesting here

230
sso 3717 mini support,,, then 3708ish... last 3717

226
i would be ok staying in sso even with spx hitting 1096 as long as it holds there...

224
when lower timeframe charts are causing whipsaw, its often beneficial to use the higher (longer) term timeframes... harder to manipulate and give the "direction" much more clearly

214
i see the 3min dblt top poss too...but 60 and 15 still suggest more up to me... could go down then pop up without damaging the 15 n 60 charts

201
see the 3minute gap up just now... spx sso??

157...
well its 157... 3752 is still target, but its late (if it gets there) .. wrong time calc grr..last 3740... still expecting the 3752

152
yes. well we endured that drop to .25.... sso has recovered to .41.... but still watching the lower highs.....

152
now looking on sso 3 min to make sure it doesnt start a lower hi ..lower low type thing....

145
putting aside all trendlines etc... look at the spx pattern 15min from noon yest till now... stand a few feet from the monitor... its bullish

139
sso is behind on the 1:56pm time to hit 37.51.... cmon speed up... last 3729

134
its tough tick-watching the sso go down to 3725 a lil here... but the charts still have that down- up- down pattern,,, where we are in the first "down" now... so holding the sso

132
over 3708 sso would still be bullish, 3716 hold preferred... last 3728

119
i'm being careful with shorts here... charts suggest they could drop this and trap the shorts...with a move back up to HOD

115
looking for sso 37.51 around 1:56pm today

109
yes the bear wedge formed when the spx broke under its previous UTL... its wat i was concerned with earlier... but other things suggest more... but could see 3708 first grrr

105
i'm going to endure the drop there if it comes

104
the problem is... sso might want 3708 down... it would still be bullish...but painful watching it go there

103
all the chart patterns various from 10am are still valid...

100
these small candles spx are not particularly bullish,,,, its crawling up.... will ride the sso until it starts breaking down,,, cuz on higher vol we could get a big green candle intraday

1256
2264= comp stretch target (not today)... last 2226

1254
interim trgt... sso 3777.. so sso next targets 3746, 3777,, 38.19

1250
still got limit order to sell up there... 3751....partial shares only

1248
daily bullish engulf candle continues to form... but still early and would need

1246
if it blasts past without a stall it would be bullisha

1246
if sso hits 3751... a 20 cent pullback could still be bullish... expecting a big stall 3751....last 3742

1245
3741 /43 trgt hit

1244
sso sell limit 3751 to take a pop up...partial shares...large port only...no order in small port

1242
sso next targets 3746,,, 38.19... will need to calc an interim trgt under 3819

1241
ok...3737...filled...sold...took partial profits...

1239
one pennny from 3737 limit sell partial

1234
hugging the support line.. but its hugging UNDER IT...not good... bulls need to push this...but other things suggest still more up in spx

1229
if bulls dont hold here... sso likely to hit 3708... last 3728....need to hold aroun .20ish

1224
poss SPY bullish engulfing 2 day candle pattern could form today

1223
its 1223 not 1221 now...got the new high expected below

1222
filled on the sale.. took partial profits

1221
selling a few shrs sso at .29 here...lg port only

1220
the spx has BROKEN its support line in that upchannel... its marginal break...but the bulls need to hold it up....

1217
the 3min continues to dev bear divergences... but they take time to manifest

1215
6 cents away fromt the 3737 limit sell...large port only

1211
bulls need comp 2225... last 2222

1210
charts suggest a new hi in spx around 1:221pm ...last 1101

1207
thus far, the 3min upchannel i mentioned b4... has held beautifully...but of course its a contra-trend channel and suspeptible to breaking .. the sso continues to bounce of the UTL support line

1206
ok so we've got 2 sso closes over the 3721ish... but i'm not thrilled with the shoot star candle closes...15min...but it confirms the macd buy signal --- PpP buy sig

1204
this is not a bad place to short... but i'm not.. i prefer to wait for spx to go LOWER,,, then short on a small move up during any such chop.. cuz the spx could breakout higher still

1158
so that would suggest another pop up... if they cover... last 3727

1157
the "conservative" newly entered "aggressive shorts" will prob be covering around here,,, getting out until the path is not so murky...

1156
grr.... 3737 not filled yet... 5 cents off... so selling fewer shares at the 3737 and moving them to 3743... still got both limits in///hit 3732 not 3737

1155
small port...no sso sell orders yet...holding for higher

1154
for my large port... i've got sell limit orders in the sso limit 3737 3743... last 3730

1148
if comp hits 2225 the newly entered shorts will prob trigger stops upward

1146
notice, tho, that a candle has not CLOSED over 3721.. ok well the 10min did... so a marginal close... so a marginal


close.. a 15min close would be more

bullish
 
 
1145
those shorts might get whipsawed out if they enter now... charts still say more up, to me... this lil move down is expected as shorts r entering here... how fun to watch... see how it plays out

1143
sso hit 3729... close to 3737 target but far enough away to merit a second attempt up to hurdle over it ... the 3737 is a key intraday target, as i see it

1142
ahh COMP is hitting that 2222 R...close to it

1139
and sds breaks its lows as expected :)

1138
ok.... first sso trgt hit...3717 :)... real target first is 3737 with a 3743 overshoot

1135
"failure" refers to inability to hold the previous trend (in this case, prev trend down)

1135
there is also a weak bullish rsi formation...60min... (rsi failure swing... lol failure makes it sound bearish but its bullish)


1134
but...this is all


intraday for a lil bounce.... if spx

doesnt break higher then the spx

midterm bear flag will rule
 
midterm i DO EXPECT LOWER spx
 
1133
yes...tho there is a 3min bear diverg.... so maybe backtest and more chop if that plays out

1130
sso spx broke higher from the bull flag.... a backtest could occur...but bulls need to hold the 1096ish

1130
resistance at COMP 2222ish... last 2215

1129
the 3min upchannel inside the downchannel continues to dev and hold...spx sso

1128
YES. we continue to see chop with upward bias, as expected.... :)

1128
that would confirm the macd pPp intraday buy signal

1127
here we go... sso needs a candle CLOSE over that sso 3720... last 3712

1124
3737 then 3743

1123
i see sso 3743ish first at minnimum... if the 3696ish holds... curr charts suggest to me that its on course for the 3743

1118
arguably the sso has a coil 3min over 2days,,,and also an up channel within the larger down channel... upchannel being valid only while sso over 3696ish

1117
but the break is marginal, doesnt count yet

1117
rigth now the SSO is testing its 3min /10min DTL and has marginally violoated it up...last 3704

1110
btw... the sso targets today are less precise cuz its for a swing position not daytrade... not bothering to refine them

1107
on 3min sso

1106
sso has a 3728 chart pattern trgt on break of 3711...which is close to the 3737 trgt

1105
this sso/spx mini bull flag thing is still in play...can see it on the 3min chart now too

1052
so far...sso/spx held near that 1095/96 intraday level...

1051
and the 15min 60min are dev poss rectangles

1050
the daily / 60min spx will form a bear flag/pennant if spx fails to break higher

1047
also note the rising histogram macd on 15 and 60min sso charts... suggests chop with upward bias.... and poss pPp macd bull formation

1047
sso chart patterns from b4... still valid and developing...

1045
over 1095 spx... i'm still seeing spx bouncing higher first... and a bar close 15min or 60min over 1099

1042
but 1096.45 support has been marginally broken... so this level impt intraday

1041
if spx can hold around 1095... poss small bull flag 15min... last 1096

1034
sso: a break under 3694 could give 3681, 3650... last 3698

1031
on sso on the 15min bar for 1030 (this bar) , a CLOSE over 3720 would be bullish (close 1045 on the 1030 bar)... or on any following 15min bar close over 3720


1027
see if sso holds 3694 gap support or if bears break below it...

1023
Chart patterns:
3min pattern target 3811 on break over 3733.
Rectangle pattern: target 3826 on break of 3651

Still working out more precise details / consolodations

1022
sso 3 cents from first trgt 3717

1008
here are the quick targets i see for sso.... more precise targets to follow: 3717  3737  3746  3819  3877  3921   4011... not saying we make it to 4011

1012
the sso 3709ish stall was expected... still see higher tho

1007
sso 3709 R....last 3703

1001
but the diverg is in 15min not 60... so upside bounce is limited...

953
there is a pos diverg setting up in spx 15min...double-low price vs higher rsi bottom.. still under construction... to provide a bounce up in spx..last 1091

933
glad i bailed yest on GILD yest at 4582... now 45.00

925
We could see a move up in SPX in the coming 2 days, before the initial/ continuing Claims report... Right now, I expect a negative reaction after the report, so they could try to bring it up first, if able.

917
ES moved up to 1092 and then turned back down. 1092 was a perfect touch of the 60min downtrend R line. The DTL is steep though, which implies that it can be hurdled higher. Will be watching throughout today, especially the first 1-2 hours.

7:59 AM
ES futures tumbled last night from 1092 to a low of 1081, but have since recovered to 1090. so now they are down 2.50.

It should make for an interesting day today.

More details later...

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".