Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Tuesday thoughts


511
i shorted some CAT here afterhours, may add more tomorrow, instead of DOW or SPY short

400

small port sim: last 3 days (since inception): closed trades profit $994, account value increase (including unrealized gains losses) = $746 on 30,000 investment,,,,the experiment continues for now

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1



out small port tna, took small profit

251
 70% buy es signal

238
small ports in ANN puts, taking it all off here, did not get target but will take the 60% gain,,,target was more but sideways can decay the puts, will look to re-enter later,,,short the underlying makes sense to hold longer halfa

235
trying TNA here

229
ANN remains on "stay short in options puts"

228
60% buy long scalp signal on es just rang, not actionable imo but suggests tighter stops if short

226
went long MIND, swing, has nothing to do with expecting spx to go higher

215
took half qid off on large port, and took all shares off in small port, will look to re-enter later maybe, 1.47% gain on QID in a few hours hold time, may also look for CHRW short or something else

159
intraday ES approaching 1364 trgt from noontime, reaction here could be impt, if it holds or breaks, "should hold" first test but looking breakable esp under the 1368 and the harsh reject on 1358 first test

158
QQQ testing the daily lows, and looks breakable for lower lows

119
ann stopped out, 1.5%ish gain scalp

113
2858 new ann stop
102
bbl, set stop 2869 v v tuite on ANN to protext 1.2%ish profits, letting qid ride

1254
large port i'll tighten qid stops on half of position, to protect 1%ish profit from trade earlier today,,,small port looser stop,,,same for ANN

1252
under 1368 intraday is now v bearish imo,,,bulls MUST get over that, its not that far away but needs to get over imo

1241
QQQ just broke the 3min chart support
nice for QID

1239
74% on es,,,,,may see its prev posted intraday trgts soon

1232
KFT and INTC are still on my focus list of dow stocks to short but they dont look ready yet, may need another 1-3 days, and may not setup at all

1226
3min chart bear desc triangles qqq es spya

1223
QQQ now breaking 3min chart support ever so slightly,,,,

1214
qqq 15min chart support looks breakable lower

1159
es 1366 and 1364ish initial trgts lower, more later poss

1157
72% sell on ES short scalp sig intraday, could bounce but getting weaker, remaining short in ann and qid for now

1144
exited TMV 2x short of tlt at 2% gain, will look to reenter lower

1134
chose QID because QQQ weaker than spy iwm dia, shorter the weaker indice instead of runup in iwm

1133
went long QID which is 2x short qqq

1128
ANN has a stoch bear dbl top on 15min, with a bear price diverg ,,macd hist still over 0 but starting to tick lower

1127
agressive short setup scalp here at 1371
[11:26:38] would need to have a loose stop,wide...OR be willing to hold overnite,, OR be willing to set a tite stop and not fearful of re-entering again
[11:26:51] could work, i'm not taking it,


1124
es 60% sell signal now, 

1121
took profits on all of BIIB in small port, 128.70,,,into strength,,,i'm getting warning bells for poss move lower, can always buy back, about 2.5% gain

1113
 still waiting for more market maker reports thru the day, but they may be pushing aapl higher b4 earnings, for a move lower in days weeks after earnings on aapl, needs more detail

1108
reshorted ANN 29.01 using the underlying not options, still have half options, if ANN moves today will take some of it off, else hold swing short, may see 2950 b4 lower but this looks good imo 2901

why short ANN when ES is not yet on an intraday sell signal? because i don't mind holding the ANN overnite swing if it does not move lower.

1058
ES is only on a 40% scalp sell short signal, not even close to the min 70% actionable and 74--85% "it moves" (intraday signal for scalps, not relev to swings)

1048
part of reason for UTIW (in addition to tech charts daily and 60min) is earnings green candle on March 22, again these earnings trades sometimes come weeks later, tho this is the third entry in UTIW long (3 roundtrip buy-sells, not scaling)

1047
i am back in UTIW long here, near 16.75ish, it may see 1650 or lower but looks good for swing imo,,,i've traded this one a few times b4

1034
BIIB hit trgt1 , up 2.1% vs es up 0.5%
small port strategy would hold longer, larger port would take some profit here at 2.4% gain

1026
 BIIB on fire now, up 2% vs ES up 0.4%

1019
imo for swings, ES still in the resist zone. this looks impressive but i'm bearish for swings while under resist

1012
BIIB outperforming mkt: BIIB is up 1.7% vs es up 0.5%

1011
many individ stocks rite now are on "hold long swing 4-8 more trading hours at least" setups

1010
1370 is bottom of the 1370--1390 ES resist zone, may stall here and pb, or continue higher into zone,,,short swing opps may present later but early now imo

1009
AU is still buyable here imo, similar to gdx or nem

1005
needs more time to be of value, but rite now AAPL is being accumulated not sold, at this price

958
CHRW up here at near 66 from 6530 short cover earlier, still waiting to re-short CHRW, too soon atm imo, for transport sect trade

952
DBA has gapped up but is still buyabvle for new entries swing here, imo, is only at beginning stage of its rally if one comes

951
TLT moving lower nicnely, good for TMV now at 1.5% gain,
still holding ANN puts

946
an excellent way to play earnings is AFTER not before, sometimes WEEKS after,,,
ex: my WMT short 2 days ago was based on WMT earnings reactino all the way back to Feb 22,, stocks tend to retest those reactions whether it was a high or low for long short

942
BIIB trgts: 128.50, 130.00, 134.00, 138.00 approx, last 127.20

939
wish i had kept a full position of BIIB yest instead of selling half, up over yesterdays high now, hindsight is 20:20 vision

933
DBA and SLV have both gapped up nicely, BIIB surgin 1% higher candle off to a great start also, i remain long in them all.
924
This may be a volatile choppy open imo, 930--1000--1030am

8:47 AM
I am cancelling the order to sell UNG placed yesterday. The order was not filled, and UNG looks like it will gap higher this morning. WIll watch action of UNG at the open and then decide if i want to exit or not.
Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

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