thurs thoughts

425
interesting: if you only look from Mar 12--today,,,the AAPL and SPY charts actually look v similar. this does not bode well for either aapl or spx, imo... aapl had a huge run up since jan of course, but its now no longer acting "like apple"

415
imo, anything under 32.20 msft afterhours is unimpressive (earnings)

402
vhc red 2.5% but its v volatile, holding it

402
kept the chrw, wasnt worth taking the 1.3% profit, holding swing

402
es trgts 1366, or could manually trail stop for more all nite

358
es may pb here again,,,same #, 1373

357
could let it run with stop 1376--1379

354
taking 2 points on half of 1373 scalp makes sense and hold other half with looser stop, for 5-8 points profit trgt
 i am not in it

352
1373 es short could work but i'm not taking it, into afterhours lower

344
uh oh,,, es sell signal just jumped to 74% from 69%, at 1372 es

338
lots of resist on the way up to 1390 es

338
1375 ES is the new resist imo,,,under that, bearish, 1372-1376

334
some instutional selling today, not a lot, in chrw,,,,so it may bounce into the close before revisiting lower,,,, like ANN did yest

331
tho 6570 is next trgt chrw

331
trying for 65 chrw exit, last 66

328
may take half of the CHRW short off today, it may bounce tomorrow and be able to reshort higher,,,unless it surges higher, i'll take off half CHRW, around 1.5-2.5% gain depedning on price

318
so next few days may be crucial, interesting

317
inability of the market to rise a little, after institut selling and Market Maker reports from yesterday,,,it could cause a severe move lower. this is because the MM may need to take a loss if they cannot push up price to recover from servicing the instutitions. if they cannot push it higher to exit, they will block sell to exit, and there are no market makers there to buy, only retail there to buy

308
if es cannot get to 1374--1376 bounce, would be bearish imo, into close and longer
it should bnc there

302
if vix can get over 21 or 22 in coming days, then options premiums should start to accelerate and value increase faster on puts

301
if ann closes below yesterdays low (its well below it now), then it will have confirmed yesterdays bearish shoot star candle

258
ES 1374-1376 should stall any rally attempt today

257
if CHRW closes near here or lower, it will have a bear reversal day bar, with a higher hi and a lower low with a close near the low, tho the uptrend is short, only 8 days

252
long silver 5420 agq trgt, from 5212 entry (todays silver at higher price, not yest slv positino)

241
AGQ in 52.12 for scalp if moves or hold if stalls, silver

224
short in CHRW at 1% gain from entry earlier today, but waiting for lower to cover half of it, larger position i'd cover 25-50% now, but dont have enough shares since its supposed to be a swing

219
i've been trading ERY in add to tza sds, because ERY is at near or over its Jan 31 price, where as SDS is far below it,,imo energy weaker

214
watching to see if ERY catches up to sds, rotation

209
SLV should pb one more time, and may give an opp to scalp long (diff than curr swing),,pb may be to higher low over .70

207
SLV waking up now, on the move higher after intraday pb

148
at current velocity, looking to exit slv long in 1-3 days, may change if its velocity increases or decreases

146
1-5 day hold time on chrw atm for swing piece, may take half off as scalp or quick trade if it moves to around 2% gain, only 0.7% now

144
for now, CHRW is putting in a nice bear shoot star on daily candle, will hold the swing short entered today

1245
1 to 5 days expected hold for swing part of VHC, if it moves sooner then will take off half for scalp

1243
long VHC 23.70 for scalp swing, this is very volatile stock so sized accordingly

1238
later ann trgt 25.50, so the trgts are about 7% and 16% lower

1226
UNG 14.30 long. bought a small position in UNG for a multiweek multimonth hold, or will exit on a surge higher if it comes sooner. Small position in this, basically i'm using the etf like i would options, but the etf does not expire like options do. UNG has been in a multiyear decline, but I think natural gas will go higher over time.  It's also in a bull falling wedge daily, with divergences. Elected to use UNG instead of the 2x BOIL since the 2x may decay more over time than 1x UNG.

1145
from prior idea for short setup:  that was the "down" on es 3min chart move, now looking for it to bounce, and this bounce might be shortable when done, only halfway thru the setup, 15min candles still not small enough but may get smaller after next bounce on 3min

1116
also CHRW, notice daily stoch 14,3,3 over 90 but price is near resist, not the sole reason, but that illustrates prior comment on watching ES stoch

1114
part of reason for CHRW short,,look back to daily chart in february

1109
shorting CHRW again, been awhile, as a proxy for IYT transports play, at 67.00

1059
ES short setup likely will require a trip down on the 3min charts, then a trip back up, and short that bounce,,,will take some time to form


1058
imo, its too early for "limit orders at support" for scalps, may be valid for swings, but i'll wait for the smaller candles for new entries, keeping the existing ERY etc swings

1055
for scalps on ANN     ES, es 15min chart is "starting" to form the smaller candles, tho more up or sideways may come,,no setup yet, but it looks like it will be a short setup, if it presents

1039
another short scalp may present in ANN today like yest,,,watching that one, might be easier shorting ANN than spx, but no setup yet

1035
simple method: in coming days, watch ES stoch 14,3,3: if its near 80, and ES is still under or in its resist zone, v bearish for SPX  ES swings

not that we rely on a single indicator, and stoch is often useless, but on this chart pattern the stoch has merit imo, and is worth watching

1033
will watch reactions at 1382 if it gets there, just under 1383

1032
1383 ES is resistance, again, then more R above, #s same as yest

1026
we certainly got the chop and wild action during the first hour, as expected.
for ES TF IWM  scalps, waiting for multiple smaller candles on 15min makes sense, imo, then see if its a long or short setup, it will likely be a contratrend setup scalp if it presents

1021
from a swing perspective, ERY (bear energy, similar to a short on CVX or XOM tho CVX weaker) is on a "hold long 4-8 more hours at least" signal, imo, despite this expected chop

1019
sometimes the early entries take off rite away, other times they take more time (or could result in a loss too)

1017
DBA agriculture has gapped up this morning, and this possibly signals the end of its recent multiweek downtrend, tho i am red a half percent on dba for now (due to early entry hit), still buyable imo, swing

1015
but prob better opps for longs in BIIB  WWW  VTNC  VHC   IMGN  ABMD  MIND   ,, to re-enter (had all those long b4), swing

1013
1370--1375 is es support zone,,,likely stall sideways here
 it may present a long scalp opp tho not yet,
 maybe another 5 pts lower, watching

1003
if using options then NEM or GDX would prob have better spread and volume

1002
long AU 3367,,,,instead of adding to slv, i'm doing the related gold miner AU, similar but not same,, one could also use NEM GDX or NUGT 3x instead, i think that AU will "catch up" to NEM, and AUY looks a bit weaker tho it may also catch up

951
slv trgt 31.48, i will sell all or half of slv  agq position there if it hits 31.48

948
silver up 1.3%, agq 2.5% but giving it time to consolod, rise more, swing,,,if i had a larger position i would take some profit here, but i only have the "early entry" size so holding for now

908
also have long positino in dba.

907
SPX  ES  QQQ may see choppy action from 9:30--10:00--11:00, futures traded in a wide range overnight from 1377 to 1390, was up to 1390 and rejected and fell to 1377. For today, it seems like shorting the rally may be trade to take if ES tries toward 1390 again. Conversely if ES were to be non-volatile, non-choppy, then perhaps a long entry ES would present. But for now, the "short rally" appears more likely.

Still have swings long in ERY   SLV  AGQ  and shorts / puts in ANN

There are many opps both long and short in individual stocks or etfs that may present opp for new swing / scalp entries.


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".