Thurs thoughts

419
highest SPY volume came today at 139.80ish ,,,and selling ES after 4pm, that does not look good for bulls, good for shorts

408
my gap analysis method yields "inconclusive" on monday gap, tho more factors evaluate to "gap down" than "gap up", there are not enough gap down factors true, using that method

355
aapl vol may be high enough to hold and close afterhours, to 415--500pm timeframe,

352
635.8 could be aapl scalp stop if shorting scalp, or exit 4pm, for a 0.36% loss if stopped

348
heres the 1394 ES resist test, 1396 also resist,,,this time of day clearly it can break 1394 and "should be able to" higher, if not, may be a good clue,,same # as noontime

337
633.50 aapl scalp short could work, i'm not trading it, es at 1393.50

317
aapl 60 min charts, tues 9am thru today, volume bear diverg, among other things,,,60min does say it could go higher, just throwing out ideas

315
some data suggests that aapl may sell harder than ES, if anything moves by 4pm,,

314
if ES does sell,,will be interesting to see which move has bigger percent: ES from 1392 lst, or aapl from 631

301
might be easier to scalp short AAPL than SPY, tho aapl setup not baked yet either

300
imo 15 adn 60min ES charts could go either way,15min is suggesting a poss break of the 15min downtrend, but daily and 60min are opposing, and certain things in 60min say higher,, for me, that means "stay out" LOL

257
watching for poss rejection at es 1394,,,if so that would be bearish, perhaps not tradeable tho

256
the first bounce up here on ES 3min may be re-shortable scalp, after some smaller candles appear, watching reactions,,, not ready now, for that setup, the 15min trend on es is still bearish while it has lower highs

252
the aapl bear eve star mentioned yest, that candle patten was not confirmed, in fact today it was invalidated, when that happens, a common occurence is a bear harami or dark cloud cover pattern to form later instead, no sign of it today so far, just something to watch in coming hours days

250
imo, silver longs should have a tight stop, whether scalp or swing,,,60min says slv should go higher, but daily and 15min charts dont support it,,,the first move up on the 60min usually stalls and backtests lower,,,

203
if short from 1396, makes sense to take off half or all for 5 point scalp, es,,,i didnt trade it

156
nervous traders would exit VHC here 10 cents over entry,,,i intend to hold it, long hedge,,

151
3060 stop on remaining slv, can always buy back if stopped out,,,close to previous stop this morn on slv agq

140
ANN broke the 28.24 trgt,,,watching to see if this sustains lower or not,,,could see 2-2.5% lower b4 decent bounce

133
ANN continues to look vulnerable, may crack that support lower today

1246
but sjm down hard on earnings feb 17,,,those moves tend to retest lower again, after MM push the price up to get an exit,,, when insitutions dump like that, it forces the MarketMakers temporarily long

1227
XPP 60min says "hold all day today unless stopped out",,,manually trailing the stop higher,,,trailing the stop because 15min chart says "possible pullback"

1222
its still making higher intraday highs, at high of day now

1222
raised stop on XPP china to 49.8, atm 2.5% gain

1206
some stocks on focus list for re-entry swing longs (not ready yet, wtaching them):  IMGN  STX  SLV  BAL cotton CORN  TLT  TMF  ERY   (ERY is a bearish play)

shorts on list:  TEVA  SJM  BAL CORN  SLV 

commodities are being tricky, they are on both the long and short lists, depending on how they move
1205
reentry STX long may present again, needs 2-16 trading hours for setup to formalize

1157
 i exited TLT here,i see higher but will re-eval later, have other open positions and not wanting to manage this one, small profit ,,,exiting not to take profit but to reduce risk,
, it is still on "hold the swing long" tho on TLT

1147
SLV: 15min chart says pb on silver,,,60min chart says more up
,so will need to see "how much" it pb, and "how much" it goes up,,,,that should give a good clue to future swing direction on slv

1139
If ANN breaks 2824 support, it may move down another 2.5% quickly, (tho more support at 2800--2815, imo the 2824 is more impt #)

1137
may take over 18 minutes to form

1136
heres the 3min down move 1--bounce may be shortable, scalp, ES

1126
stopped out, 2%ish on that half,,,may buy back slv later, still have half

1124
silver stop on half basede on 3min chart, its v tite,,basically just under the last signif 3min low, nothing complicated

1123
stop raised on half silve AQG to 52.13,,if stopped may be abloe to buy it back lower,,last 5236

1120
75% TLT long scalp signal

1119
73% short scalp signal on ES here at 1296

1117
VHC up 2% from entry this morning, but holding it longer,,,higher trgts for swing,,might take half off later

1107
agressive could short here 1396, with stop 1402, or wait for 1398 limit fill, or wait for pb on 3min chart then short 3min bounce, i'm not trading it,,think there are other better opps

1104
i use diff strategies, some are purely chart based , others include volume and earnings
, VHC trade based partly on the mar 7 volume big green candle

1102
idea: wait for ES to break over 1400, and then pull back to a higher low, before going long,,,if u miss the move over 1400 without a pb, always other opps

1100
VHC 3 swing targets are 7%, 12% and 21% higher

1050
but if 15min chart on ES  SPY  IWM set up several smaller 15min candles, and entry using the 3min charts for timing entry could work for short

1050
a short scalp  may setup on SPY  ES as its now entering the resist zone, this would be early entry here if it moves to 1398,,,,waiting another hour or so makes sense tho,,,i'm not trading it

1044
SLV resist 3080, 3130,3150,,testing first resist now
3080 looks breakable poss on first try without stall

1042
4940ish XPP china stop

1038
imo, ES bearish intraday since it is still under the resist zone, same zone as yest

1020
TLT now at breakeven, watching that too, same stop as yest 111.37 hard stop, but higher mental stops on it , holding for now

1020
china xpp from yest at 2%ish gain, watching that for now, looser stop

1006
VHC 23.17 stop

1009
5160 stop AGQ to protect gain, 2% atm, still see higher slv, 5230 last,

1006
VHC long here 2380 stop 2320

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".