Friday thoughts

[12:59:13] needs to get of 1406 by 1:20 pm or the 72% will go lower

[12:57:37] 72% es bnc long rang 1404

[11:29:27] it is interesting tho that MM buy level happens to be exactly at 3min and 15min chart horiz support, tho their sell level marginally over hi by 2 pts

[11:26:51] curr mild Market maker selling, nothing agressive,,,if they were buying the buy level would be 1409ish no 1404

[11:25:37] 1404 and 1414 current MM buy sell levels,es

[11:23:11] GDX almost ready for reentry, nugt,,waiting for pb now,,has followed roadmap well

[10:57:25] TLT shorts could work here, or TMV, scalps and swing both,,,im not adding anything since i already have an exist position

[10:00:36] 64% es bnc signal, not high enough for action imo, just fyi,,,watching if it goes up or down, es 1403,,intraday signal, irrellevant to swing


[09:34:12] idealy gdx would bounce to 4675ish, stall and pb,,,and pb may give entry

[09:32:35] GDX NUGT continue to act well during the setup formation stage,,,still no re-entry position but forming nicely these past many days,
[09:33:03] we are getting the expected bounce on the gdx a bit here,,,some choppiness with a final move lower would put me in long

[09:27:50] bernake will speak, so limit orders set at extremes for possible fills if we get whipsaw, exits only,,will adjust later


[09:19:02] lowered trgt on TLT shorts for now, (higher gain if hit), TLT 123.80 new TLT trgt for now, to close half of shorts there and keep half, viz 3x TMV

Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

thurs thoughts

[15:36:19] MM lowered buy level back down, same sell level,,could drop or drift up

[15:32:26] hit the 1402 trgt

[15:27:49] MM have raised the buy level,,, ES can get the 1405 if they keep it here

[15:24:26] conversely MM not buying, with level near low of day atm

[15:23:01] 141.10ish spy level

[15:22:04] MM stopped selling,,,testing mkt now,,,with sell levels above high of day again, at 1400 es

[15:14:21] theres a poss bear HS on ES 60min chart
[15:14:34] but the daily chart, one could conversely see a bull flag
[15:14:42] or coil

[15:03:45] mild MM selling rite here, nothing extreme,,,but selling a lil into this lil pop

 [14:52:40] intraday Market Maker sell level has moved above todays high of day in SPY, fwiw
[14:52:58] may lower it,,,until lower upside bias.....tho the bid is far away so they r not buying here


[14:50:21] 1404.50 is trgt if it hits 78%,,, 1402 is the 74% trgt

[14:28:16] institutional #s for TLT interest are 123 and 129

[14:25:18]  1402 es intraday resist,,using breakdown level (prior supp) as welll as prior high,,gives same #

[14:14:14] still waiting on GDX NUGT reentry

[13:34:11] 70% long bias rang, ES 1398
[10:34:52] exited CHRW short,,will re-eval entry later, small profit breakeven,,,

[09:44:22] GDX NUGT charts still looking good, following expectations,,tho i have no position in them yet,,,still waiting to re-enter,,,,would like to see a move up and then down on the 15min chart at least, and pref on the 60min chart,,,,one more daily low is possible imo,,,such lower low would not invalidate bullish outlook on gdex nugt for swing

GDX is volatile and has a "habit" of making large candle moves on the 60min chart,,tho we have not seen that recently i'm being cautious of poss large candle down,,,such large red candle could be a buying opp

[09:37:41] theres the ES move under 1405 but not under 1399 mentioned yest,,,a poss buy signal will set up if 1399 holds and es gets back over 1405


Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

wedn thoughts

[15:53:17] TMV did not hit its target today, will hold it
[15:54:15] cancelled sell at 53.70 and raised target to 54.20, for now,,,,when its this close to trgt and misses, it usually overshoots the target, hence the higher # for now,,on half of position, to hold other half for higher

[15:42:37] this 72% signal is less reliable today due to decreased participation
[15:31:07] at 1410 es, but needs 74-80-% to move
[15:30:11] 72% rang on es long bias into close, es 1410 last

[13:23:48] same trgt on upro, 87.00 and 87.70,,,still have order set for 87.70 for now

[12:30:48] intraday 1405 es held on the first test there,,,normally a piercing of that type of minor support lower would happen,,imo failure to pierce is bullish
[12:31:03] 10:57am-ish test
[12:31:46] watching to see if it tries to test it again, lower

[11:23:13] new candles on todays chart 1030am--1115am put TMV trgt bull flag at 53.65, which just so happens to be v close to yesterdays 4pm and this morn 9am trgt of 5370

[11:04:00] GDX and NUGT are finally moving down a bit after waiting a few days,,,still not valid for re=entry long imo
[11:04:41] but a move still lower, followed by some basing sidesways candles on the 60min charts could set up a swing long for re-entry,,,not ready yet but developing


[10:52:15] testing 1405 ES support now,,,break lower and move higher trade still valid if it presents, from 930-10amish posting,no setup yet

[10:01:38] a move under 1405 ES that does not go lower than 1399
, followed by a move back above 1405 with a 3min candle close would give a buy signal intraday

[09:54:12] TMV up 1% from yest close, while upro up just 0.3%,,,,mentioned yest that the treasuries tmv tlt would likely provide bigger range

[09:51:08] TLT 124.70 trgt,last 125.39

[09:45:28] TLT "should" make a lower low under 125.35 today,,,if it bounces poss scalp trade intraday, i remain swing short with same trgts on first half

3x bear treas etf is TMV

[09:37:13] tlt testing 15min and 60min supports rite now

[09:36:01] if TLT does not make much of an effort to fill the todays gap in the next 15-30 min,,,gap theory suggests a lowere intraday low would be made,,,

[09:09:53] i will take gains on half of TMV if it gets 53.70, and UPRO same # as yest 87.7,,,may adjust later

also considering longs in silver or gold while waiting for re-entry into gdx,,,watching for poss setup

Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tues thoughts

[15:30:46] TMV 5280 i'll take off half if it gets there, to reduce risk and take small gain, since i added to it
[15:30:51] and keep half


[15:23:49] TLT has successfully broken the 125.80 support # from 2 hrs ago, good for shorts swing imo
[15:23:55] watching where it closes


[14:55:37] TLT at 125.90,,,close to the 125.80 pivot from hour ago,,,a close under here would be good for tlt shorts imo

[14:29:41] theres test of resist 1 sugg by 72% es,,can still go higher imo, 1410.75
[14:15:19] 1411 es test high of day likely, tho only 3 pts
[14:06:13] 72% long bias rang on ES at 1408
[14:06:29] intraday signal scalp ,,,not swing indic

[14:04:45] watching if TLT closes under 125.80

[14:02:24] added TMV,, when TLT hit 126.24

[13:44:46] MIND (mitcham indus),,,still have 1970 trgt tho it may take awhile,,about 21% higher from here

[13:26:19] if CHRW can make one more lower low today, i might trade it actively, close the trade for 2%ish gain and re-short,,,, swing trgt is 5-10% gains later,,one more lower low may temporarily tire the sellers and allow a bounce in it, to reshort higher

[12:23:45] raising upro trgt to 87.70 from 87.00 for now, may adjust later, from 84.90 entry,,,last 85.17

[10:30:24] same trgts for upro, will sell at 87.00 for now, may adjust later

[09:38:31] CHRW broke supp level posted yest, on way to trgt 1 swing,,,still holding the short,,, still have UPRO at marginal gain,,holding that too,, TMV 3x red 1.5% but holding ,,,not adding to tmv yet,,,still see higher tmv lower tlt swings

Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday thoughts

[13:14:58] es may move up here now
[13:15:07] 1413 last



[12:56:33] no change in intraday outlook,,,everything same as b4


[12:30:29] CHRW now testing the support level,,,still looks breakable lower for swings,holding the swing
[12:30:37] short on chrw


[12:05:48] MM lowered the sell levels finally



[11:58:31] but their BUY level also remains far below, so could drop as well....

[11:57:27] MM reports suggest interest in selling up at the 1428 ES level, above the previous high 1424.85,,,,,until that changes susceptilble to getting up to 1424


[11:55:41] not saying it happens,,,but if MM do not start lowering the sell level,,,ES could see 1424 today,,,tho i'm going with the more conserv trgts,,,an algo could hit buy or sell suddenly in either direction as we all know,,,just going with what data telling us for now

[11:52:44] spx 3min chart,,,small bull flag intraday

[11:51:21] CHRW down -0.7% today vs es up/flat,,,chrw not participating and is still valid to short at this price swing imo

[11:48:41] they STILL have NOT raised the buy level,,,they may be distributing here BEARISHLY but that can go on for a 4-20 spx trading hours
[11:47:35] MM have raised the sell levels again,,,price has not moved up in response but it likely will unless they lower it

[11:38:07] MM playing games now, could move ES 3 points either direction quickly when move starts when like this,,,,1413 last


[11:35:34] scalps on UPRO from today could do similar,,,large port,,,take 1%ish here gain, or hold as per above strat

 

[11:34:04] for now i intend to hold the UPRO 3x spx long thru a roundtrip lower and then sell after bnc if it goes lower,,,may take some time,,,,alt action is to take 2% swing profits here instead from entry other day
[11:34:20] intraday first trip lower should be bought,imo
[11:34:43] should = probably will hold,,,not suggesting adding longs on pb,,





[11:31:45] upro may stall at 8650 not 8700,,all approx trgt for now,,,holding for 8700 trgt for now,may change later
[11:31:56] 8580 last
[11:28:40] MM now selling a bit here, nothing harsh but will stall this until they rasie the sell levels again,,lower than b4 by about 2 pts

[11:26:36] spx not being rejected here is suggesting higher,,,tho allowed time for rejection has not elapsed yet

 

[11:22:05] CHRW is slightly red today despite spy lil green,,,staying short on chrw
[11:19:49] this reaction at 1416 spx is v impt imo,,,its close to test now from 11:12 post
[11:20:05] needs a harsh rejection for bears,,,sideways would suggest higher

[11:16:07] 74% signal did its job on getting first trgt,,,need 78% to get second 1416 trgt,,,still at 74% now

[11:14:19] ES hit first trgt 1412 and stalled, stall is ok here, higher trgts still valid atm imo

[11:11:32] a higher intraday high today is suggested, 2 points over high on spx[11:12:21] reaction at 1416 spx impt,,,if it hits there, with a marginal move over the 1414


[11:10:14] MM have not yet started raising the buy level, only sell level,,,if they did raise buy level then a faster higher move would come,,,right now its just this drift mode


[11:08:14] MM raised sell level again
[11:08:44] suggests trgt 2 at 1416 doable today unless stats change

[11:05:31] mini break,,,seconds after typing :)
[11:04:51] may break 1410 es within 12 min
[11:00:59] no changes in their buy levels, only a higher sell level,,but still tight range until they raise the sell levels more,,,if they dont then may test the buy levels,,bias still up on it overall

[11:00:09] minor reduction in MM selling,,,still havent let off "holding it down" but may let it drift here
[10:53:06] 74% rang....often suggests first trgt will be tested which is 1412
[10:48:29] Market Maker reports are suggesting that they are holding the price down right now, but not shorting this,,,,if they decide to let off the selling a bit, then spx would pop higher, es 1409 last
[10:49:09] their buying point is 1403ish es
[10:49:39] MM analysis uses both individ stocks, es dow spx indices
[10:23:34]   that signal is scalp intraday ,,,or for swings that want to layer in and hold,,,its not a swing signal but can be used for entry points
[10:24:20] small port strat generally does not "scalp" anything not willing to hold as swing, thus not a true scalp,,but won't hesistate to take a same day profit if it moves,,,hope it makes sense

[10:21:41] 1412, 1416,1422 ES resis above
[10:18:57] imo long could work here ,, but not taking the long in the "small port" simulator since it requires too much management and ties up cash there, does not fit the small port sim trading style, only large port

[10:18:16] 72% came early
[10:18:23] 1409 es last
[10:10:59] 1412 es would raise from 70 to 74%, i think probably, if happens in next 18 minutes
[10:07:02] conversely if ES SPX instead DOES decide to move lower in next 4-8 hours without bounce, it may be sign of premature weakness, and might enter shorts there, or on bounce after such
[10:05:53] 60min chart analysis remains same as friday, still shows up sideways bias on spx for 4-8 more hours,,,may add shorts after that time elapses, or if it gets stretched,,,,spx has not been stretched far enought for me yet to short it swing
[10:03:10] intraday, ES SPX 70% long bias just rang,,,signal has been working well recently, es 1408
[10:03:17] needs 74--85% to move
[10:01:54] CHRW swing trgt is about 10% gain, with stalls along the way of course
[10:00:17] over 56.50 CHRW remains bullish, i'm holding this swing short in anticpation of a break of that support, eventually, may not come today but its close to testing the supp now
[10:00:46] but 2-3 month daily chart on chrw, is bearish
[09:35:08] CHRW shorts also still valid for new entries here ,,,tho i will not add to existing short position
[09:34:03] TMV 3x longs still valid here, bearish treas TLT etf,swings
[09:31:34] will take gains on UPRO if it hits 87.00, last 85.34
Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday thoughts

[15:46:13] ES just hit todays 1412 trgt posted earlier
[15:30:03] took 1% gain on DIS trade, will re=eval reentry to DIS on Monday
[15:31:34] mostly to take reduce risk, since have several open positions,,lock a little gain while its here and hold other positions for higher

[15:21:37] Market Maker activity in DIS has changed now, as it often does at 3pm,,,suggesting higher, so may hold DIS,,,or sell half keep half,,,bought 2 layers so shares available to only sell part of it
[15:18:04] imo,,,waiting until Monday b4 any new short entries makes sense,,,seems early to short this, 60min chart suggesting 4-8 hrs more up sideways bias 

[15:15:49] 1408.50 ES hit,watching if follows thru higher or not

[15:13:42] ES  may bounce here if it gets 1408.50
[15:04:06] if DIS moves up by 4pm today, i may take the quick profit and look to buy it back later, unsure atm
[15:04:20] still see higher DIS but 60min chart may want another visit lower first

[14:18:45] ES may bounce again here
[14:18:53] 1408.50
[13:55:08] DIS is at scalp trgt 1% gain here from entry this morn,,,swing trgts are
[13:48:54] es is at the 3min chart measured trgt now,,,looks like it can move beyond it higher
[13:45:04] 13:32 signal may be exhibiting follow thru here on es,
[13:41:58] TLT looks ready to make a lower low
[13:33:55] signal valid while es over 1406,intraday signal only

[13:25:48] long MIND swing, small position it has a volatile range,, 1750-18ish trgt, 
[13:31:30] might pop hjigher here, es,,,signal rang
[13:31:37] 1408 es last, no new positions, just info

[13:25:48] long MIND swing, small position it has a volatile range,, 1750-18ish trgt, 

[12:33:53] The 3min chart has a measured trgt of 1411, which is close to the 12:05 pm trg of 1412, on brk of 1407 higher

[12:12:06] TLT shorts or TMV 3x long still valid at this price for swing imo,,,even if it decides to go higher
[12:11:04] TLT 60min chart suggests down bias next 4-8 trading hours

[12:05:11] if the 1407 were to break higher, then 1412 would be next trgt, es

[12:01:29] imo,,,the move up was strong enough, fast enough, and early enough in day, for a higher hi possibly
[11:53:46] TLT hit 11:40 AM bnc trgt 125.09 one cent under resist trgt and pulled back,,,watching if .09 holds or it trys to break it again higher,,,still see lower TLT

[11:43:24] if spx can get to 1414, then likely will break it higher later, and would present a poss long if it pulls back after hittint 1414
[11:40:55] TLT bnc to 125.10 then lower would fit pattern, i remain short TLT via tmv

[11:39:27] a move to 4990 then down to 4960 would fit pattern, after stall,,then the higher swing trgts,,DIS
[11:32:53] DIS swing trgts,,,5050 to start, then 52,,,approx trgts obviously round #s

[11:30:54] TMV can move another 6% higher,not today

[11:19:02] order for 8570upro sell is cancelled, will re-eval later for poss higher



[11:17:15] ES just hit 1407 trgt from 9am,,,if it stays over 1404 here it may make higher than 1407
[11:17:27] looks breakable higher,


[10:52:26] scalpers that like tite stops could do es here, stop 1400.50

[10:49:35] 8570ish UPRO trgt,,,will sell half or all there

[10:44:12] preparing to add more TMV 3x soon

*1398
[10:42:17] IF es sees 1399 it will likely hold, good for 18 minutes

[10:39:31] just hit the 1402 trgt from 9am
[10:39:37] 1404 1407 mext

[10:34:25] 74% ES long scalp just rang, 1399 es
[10:34:47] doesnt usually jump from 68 to 74 like that,,

[10:32:45] TLT range today is small too,,but TLT looks like it may want to move down and expand the range,,,will see
[10:14:25] DIS testing the 49.13 interim resist, watching reaction for brk higher

[10:12:14] ES day trgts same as yest 2pm trgts,, 1407 es main one, 1402/1404 stall first


[10:01:18] im using 4913 resist on dis instead of 4916, intaday


[09:56:54] have 2 layers on DIS to start instead of one, if it moves up will scalp 1 layer and hold other one

[09:55:40] long DIS disney swing,,,daily chart on DIS much diff than spy spx dow jones


Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thurs thoughts

[15:54:52] if 1390 breaks SPX, then 1375 trgt (approx #s), swing
[15:55:12] over 1390 is tricky short, unless spx is at extremes stretched tired up

[15:39:20] spx tested near 1400 today,,,still see same as yest risk tho: if 1393 not tested,,may trap shorts until the next short opp comes
[15:34:03] timing analysis suggests poss short spx after 1--3 days from now,swing
[15:32:32] gap analysis using method i use, currently favors up for ES
[15:32:48] could change in 30 min

[15:21:11] its not likely it would move that much, but if TLT closes under 124.50 today, would be bearish for the TLT and good for TMV 3x

[15:12:12] trgts are simply prior intraday highs, no complex calc,,the 1407 reprsents a prior high as well as breakdown point (prior supp turned into resist when it broke lower), so 1407 the more impt trgt, intraday only

[15:10:18] ES nearly tagged 1400 but failed a 3min close under it, so far, and has bounced to 1402, with the 1404 1407 trgts still viable

[14:52:33] the es hit the 1402 micro trgt, if 1400 holds i'd expect it to go for 1404 1407,,,a break of 1400 with a 3min candle close under it could send it lower
[14:52:44] only intraday for above,not swing


[14:16:16] bought TMV 3x, entry 1...(re entry in this from exit few days ago)

[13:57:31] 1407 resist es

[13:54:51] 1402--1404 then stall then 1400 then higher, could be a micro pattern forming,,intraday only, not relev for swing

[13:52:33] 70% intraday long bias just rang, es 1399.75,,may bounce

[13:16:35] if CHRW gets to 55.50 area, might take profit on the short and look to reenter, or just close half of position,,,still see the lower trgtrs 5-10% lower swing later

[12:29:41] one reason of many on long upro spx: [12:28:57] IF the spx does not test 1396 area, its going to trap some shorts,,,,the charts are still same for last 3 weeks imo, not much change in analysis or roadmap
[12:29:54] later, i'll be looking to reverse short (finally)


[12:27:09] i want TMV but will wait until 3pm or 4pm today to buy it, will re-eval then

[12:22:24] added upro, layer 2

[12:02:31] may possibly add TLT shorts via TMV 3x long today, swing

[11:44:38] CHRW still shortable here, swing, tho its testing support and may or may not bounce first, 5675 last,,,,i remain short chrw but am not adding to the position
[11:45:04] upro not adding, holding it for now at 0.7%ish red atm
[11:45:42] gdx continues moving higher, exited that one a bit early due to travel sched,,still looking for re-entry long gdx nugt


Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wedn thoughts

[15:50:53] 1411 is the 60min prior resist break, turned to supp

[15:50:01] es 1411 intraday support been holding

[15:23:18] mini trgt on upro came close to being hit, should retest up there, then higher,,spx

[14:15:02] for spx, i think buy this dip and then short this rally
[14:15:21] "this dip" is ok if it goes lower tomorrow or whatever, just an intial entry

[14:14:14] first mini trgt on upro, 86ish approx from 85

[14:02:32] long UPRO, 3x bull sp 500 etf,,,small pos buy 1 of poss 4


Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tuesday thoughts

[15:45:04] it seems that spx is getting tired, and a second opp to short again later will present

[15:37:55]   imo, if one is short here, best strat is actively trade it: when it hits the lower trgt, take profit, if it bounces reshort, if no bounce re-eval later
[15:43:13] i have no longs or short on spx, but imo SPX over 1391ish area is still bullish on daily and more likely than not to bounce,,yes there is a wedge forming but still has life in it,,,and those extra "lives" can frustrate shorts
[15:43:35] thus far spx and iwm have been following prior roadmaps pretty closely

[13:24:49] CHRW is still shortable imo here, diff chart than spx,,,im down 1%ish on CHRW, still valid setup for a single entry of 4 poss entries,,,but i am NOT adding more here, will keep the single layer for now...may go higher still.
[13:24:55] chrw is in transports sec

[13:20:24] to simplify: high volume moves come in two places: at the beginning of a move and at the end of a move

[13:14:48] IWM SPY imo not stretched enough yet,,,,they are still too close to the 5 period daily moving avg, and are not at extreme new highs,,,imo not exhausted just yet tho its coming
[13:15:30] waiting for the short trgt higher up,,,or for more signals to confirm each other, b4 swing short
 [13:16:57] at this chart pattern conditions, imo short holders do NOT want to see high volume down, they need high vol up to get buy exhaustion,,,high vol down may wash all the sellers away and dip buyers arrive
[13:17:32] like mentioned b4,,,high vol has diff interpretations depending on other chart factors, and where PRICE is in relation to extreme highs or lows
[13:17:35] imo

[13:08:19] TZA did not hit my target buy price from this morn, i'll keep it open for now, not chasing it
[13:08:48] its forming the hammer on tza (shoot star iwm) we talke about b4,,,imo it will retest lower tza again
[13:09:28] plenty of time to buy tza, no reason to rush and chase,,,yet ....
[13:09:34] dont need to catch the exact bottom
  13:10:42] for a similar example to tza retest,,,notice TLT Aug 9--it retested and decided for a lower low
[13:10:51] tho tza may not

[10:52:19] a shoot star ,,,with these charts, is more likely to be retested higher agina, thus making sideways and more frustration for shorts over days,,,closing at highs has a lower risk of that, to me
[10:52:39] agina=again

[10:32:18] AMD long has moved out of its red, position is now green,,,conserv or nervous would exit here, i remain long swing with no change in the plan

[10:20:02] i'll try to explain analysis more later, maybe post some charts...but in general for indices i only like shorting when an extreme is reached, when its stretched, when divergences, and when the move up is either with big candles big vol or small wedge candles
[10:20:22] at tops and bottoms, increased volume is a reversal signal not continuation
[10:20:38] in mid stages of trends, higher volume is a continuation signal conversely
[10:21:36] also use the correlation with TLT metals oil us dollar, tho those correlations are not 1:1 they exist, imo

[10:12:58] i do not know if it will get filled, but i have an order to buy TZA at 15.54 if it gets there, if not will re-eval,,,swing not scalp,,,entry 1 of poss 4 on tza

[10:01:17] TLT starting to stablize,,still same roadmap TLT swings: bounce tlt, then to new lows tlt, multiweek view...still have the half short TLT via 3x TMV with trail stop
[10:01:56] for spx russell,,,in 1--3 days, spx may be/go lower imo, but still no indice shorts in my port

[09:57:55] still holding chrw short (still only short 1 of poss 4, have not added to it, currently red 1%) and AMD long also red 1%,,,but no change in analysis for either, will continue to hold, same plan

[09:52:08] gm all,,,still traveling...
[09:52:30] gdx and nugt hit their previously posted trgts from yest and days b4,,,gapped over them this morn, lim orders filled
[09:52:41] out nugt 30%ish gain, less on gdx
Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday thoughts

[15:48:53] watching to see if gdx makes new highs on daily chart, tomorrow, or not

[15:13:18] traveling again this week, trading sporadiclly thinner
[15:14:44] no change in analsysis for amd chrw gdx nugt in my opin,,,,same plans
[15:15:32] qqq hit 6843 today near 6850 friday posted trgt, may overshoot it, or be done,

Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday thoughts

[14:06:37] prior market maker report on gdx has been invalidated with a contradictory one,,,,makes sense, its suggesting a bit of chop
[13:48:54] lets see what TLT does in 2--3pm timeframe, another broken record LOL but we each find certain things useful
[13:37:20] would require 6831 qqq to trigger that boll band calc
[13:36:16] using boll band method, qqq 15min measures to 6850ish, which just so happens to also be prior high on daily, and also happens to be the upper boll band level on 60min qqq

[13:32:57] 74% es long bias rang intraday only sig not swing
[13:27:44] bias gdx higher intraday, tho that Market Maker report fired a warning shot
[13:26:54] GDX intraday not swing view: 4520/4552 levels: a break of either would suggest continuation in direction of the break, at 4538 now
[13:24:26] 6850--6900 QQQ could stall the IWM, imo,,,watching if qqq can get up there
[13:07:23] also that harami pattern works better with bigger candles than tlt has on daily

[13:06:22] daily tlt candles are trying to form a bull harami, but still forming, not confirmed by other factors
[13:04:43] TLT poss lower to 121.20 then up 122.50ish, approx roadmap short term, not trading it just observation of possibility

[13:01:51] IWM starting to form a nice bearish rising wedge, to present short setup, but still waiting for now,,the wedge looks incomplete and not high enough
[13:02:29] i dont know if wedge will form, but if it does, imo its one of the best trading patterns to trade, WHEN CONFIRMED with other things, not trading a wedge just by itself


[12:56:05] a bit unusual action here, the move lower on 3min ES has not invalidated the 72% signal, tho it needs 78-85% to move
[12:47:09] hmm 72% intraday long bias signal just rang, spx es
[12:46:02] gdx intraday down to 4520 then up to 4550 poss pattern

[12:42:37] for now, the 1160 order remains in place for nugt in case of surge, and will re-eval early exit as day goes on

[12:35:07] this may cause me to exit the other related nugt swing early today, under its trgt

[12:34:25] i think, not sure, that "someone" big wanted out of GDX near here, the MM will generally try to push it higher if they can, when that happens, before the lower

[12:33:23] the MM report suggests choppiness i think,,,higher then lower again,,,swing perspect still bias higher imo
[12:30:18] tza should see a test higher of 1690ish, BUT imo it may go lower first, i am still on the sidelines
[12:22:17] poss higher low forming on 15min gdx chart, if so could bounce nicely, tho lower low could also come instead of course
[12:21:17] if the gdex moves i will scalp it
[12:20:11] in gdx long again, diff than nugt trade
[12:20:47] buy 1 of poss 4 buys on gdx,
[12:14:36] also the daily candles on chrw, tho higher for several days, are relatively small, non impulsive
[12:09:40] IWM  8147--8181--8300 "overshoot" area

[12:12:58] personally i feel more comfy short in CHRW, downtrend, also 5081 earnings low,,,stocks have a strong tendency to retest those earn lows after the bounce, tho not guar...also its in the IYT transport sect
[11:28:41] when the indices are so sideways-ish, for me its often easier to trade individ stocks or sectors, just personal style
[11:25:37] for tza swing, i'm waiting for one of these:  1. IWM gets higher, far from support, or 2. IWM moves lower, then bounces
[11:23:34] AMD has moved lower since entry,,,i'm giving it some room,,,part of reason for entry goes back to volume on july 10, july 20, aug 8, two high vol down days near the lows after an already multiweek decline, followed bu a decent up day on decent volume
[11:06:42] AMD needs to get over 427 for any real upside momentum

[11:04:54] TLT approaching 122-123 re-short area, no entries yet,,,if it starts to go sideways on 15min chart that would be a poss bearish clue. expecting another trip down on TLT, which may present a long opp
[11:02:09] if CHRW gets high enough i'll add to short pos, else just keep existing

[10:16:12] TLT may be re-shortable 122ish, but will wait to see what it looks like first
[10:16:26] or tmv 3x

[10:10:54] but i did exit half of it yest

[10:10:21] GDX is down a bit here, but still over the mini support posted yest at 4530,, gdx could drop more to 4450 and still not wreck its swing setup imo,,,the stuff is volatile and moves around a lot,,alt is to exit near here with 20%ish gains but i remain long gdx nugt for now
[10:03:40] IWM russel hit 81.37 or close to 81.47 trgt higher from other day, but imo still waiting on the shorts tza for now,swings....tza hit 1650,, IWM may still want 8184
[10:03:59] same QQQ roadmap as b4

[10:00:59] CHRW trgt 1 is 5490, last 5649
[10:01:30] may or may not exit at 5649, if i exit it will be active trading with intent to reshort again later

[09:59:45] AMD mental stops 4 and 3.89 but not hard stops,,,watching to see if it stays above that, if not then will re-eval
[09:56:30] TLT 60min chart looks like it will move up, then back down,,,imo no longs on TLT until after the "down", not today
[09:56:47] unless it got a huge high vol red candle today, tlt

[09:52:31] amd may take awhile, unsure, diff strat than shorting bounce or buying dip, its not either one, poss wedge, but AMD has 20-70% gain potential in it,
[09:51:41] in process of adding 5 to 10 stocks long and short mix into the port, having exited the TMV YHOO and some GDX in the past few days
[09:46:52] also considering long AMD swing, diff strat...its in a vicious multimonth decline but may be finding a bottom soon, will wait on AMD but considering it
[09:47:07] 4.14 last AMD

[09:45:15] CHRW short is still valid at this price imo,swing

[09:42:45] same plan for gdx nugt. will sell nugt 1160 if able,for now, and intend to buy again on a pb,swing
Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thurs thoughts

[16:07:07] 11.77 is NUGT trgt,,,i'll leave the "sell at 11.60" in place for now, under trgt

[16:00:23] NUGT up 10% today, approaching its trgt 2 swing, not quite there yet
[16:00:48] out TQQQ daytrade 3.2% gain,,,sadly it was on a small position, never got chance to add layers


[15:55:20] a closeunder 5640 would give CHRW an "early breakout lower" short setup, similar to yest "early breakout higher setup" in gdx

i'm going to take a negligble profit on yhoo long swing today and exit it,,,,will explain why later,,,


[15:30:32] SHORTED CHRW...u can prob get a bettter price,,,im in here

[15:25:39] i'm going to take a SMALL short in CHRW b4 close, probably,.,,will post if taking it
[15:25:57] ...still a bid qqq intraday
[15:12:36] still have a bid on QQQ intraday,,,watching for poss pull of it,,,may just type "out" if i exit TQQQ early
[15:13:26] GDX may drop to 4511 today, not trading that,remaing long even if goes there

[15:08:23] there is 1 thing that could change that,,,,maybe we will get a final hour "short swing" signal, atm not expecting it
[15:06:58] 4 hours of equity trading, not futures trading
[15:06:31] anything can happn, my charts and timing analysis all suggest waiting at least 4 hours longer before shorting the spx russel qqq, which means not today

[15:03:13] GDX broke over last signif hi of 3 days ago, and is now backtesting it,,,atm its finding support there,,,imo that is only minor support since its newly created and more pb would not invalid GDX NUGT swing longs,,but if the .30 area does hold it would be bullish
[14:56:54] i wont hold the TQQQ from today for those qqq trgts,,,will exit today,,,not trading that idea long, just "sidelines thoughts"
[14:55:34] not saying it gets there, but IWM shorts may be better if/when QQQ gets near 60--62..could take a few trips
[14:55:47] the multiweek rectangle measures to that area, which is a prior hi
[14:55:51] just a thought

[14:44:46] there IS some bearish distribution happening also, some selling into this strength by certain big boyz, per reports,,,BUT they are holding up to selll,for now
[14:44:53] remember,,they layer in and out also


[14:42:56] still a bid under QQQ,,,watching to see if it changes and may exit if it does,,,for now the bid is there so keeping the TQQQ with stop n trgt
[14:41:01] TQQQ scalp at 3.2% gain from entry this morn, tightend stop but still trying to wait for 59.73 TQQQ or QQQ 68.50

[14:34:21] if TLT action remains tame for next 30 min, spx often follows suit till 4pm,,,same for if TLT is harsh wild

[14:11:00] watching to see what treas TLT does in next 50 min
[14:11:15] could give clues to TLT SPX METALS moving forward
[14:11:37] qqq 6802 hit, likely up from here
[14:11:41] 6850 trgt

[14:03:43] QQQ: qqq are likely to follow direction of break of either of these: 6775 brk lower, or 6802 brk higher
[14:04:14] "something" is being suggested in Market Maker reports, cannot figure out the "what" LOL

[13:45:57] imo, GDX may see 4560--4650ish b4 much pullback,from swing perspect, still holding NUGT longs for now

[13:40:34] imo, waiting to see what IWM does in 8147 area, may stretch to 8200ish,,,8100--8200 resist zone
[12:16:04] will sell TQQQ at 59.73 if it gets there, that would put QQQ near 6850 if i did the 3x calc rite

[12:04:42] 4520--4550 GDX intraday mini supp resis range imo

[11:58:56] IWM at resist now, but imo waiting until 8150ish IWN to short, or for tza, for now, may change later...OR wait for a pb on 15 or 60min chart and short the bounce, it "should" be bought on the first pb intraday charts

[11:17:34] a stall would make sense on GDX, but it has enough momentum to blast thru this resist without much pullback,,,will see what happens
[11:17:58] larger ports, would take some off here, and run with half size not quarter size remaining pos, imo

[11:16:51] GDX is now at major resist 4535 area, last 4525,,,a stall here would be ok,,,IF GDX breaks thhis then marginal hi new of 4565 trgt, and if THAT breaks then 46.30 trgt, swings

[10:57:08] YHOO popped to 1497, considering the 1500ish trgt as being hit,,,watching reactions here now,,,bias still up for next 4 hours

[10:53:54] TQQQ at trgt 1 now, 1.3% gain from entry this morn, but holding for higher trgts

[10:46:49] have order to sell nugt at 1160 still, may need to update the trgt but for now leaving it, would be 31% gain if hit
[10:42:22] only took off partial shares in nugt GDX, holding rest for higher trgts, and will buy back gdx if it moves down, maybe to .40 area

[10:41:11] close enough gdx, took profit
[10:41:26] .83
[10:33:27] QQQ and TQQQ just made new intraday high as expected, spy has not
[10:30:17] yahoo broke the mini-resist higher, 1500 ish next trgt

[10:16:49] gdx interim trgt 3363 b4 4485, may stall 4463, waiting to sell at 4485 for now, partial shares only

[10:03:57] in TQQQ starter, buy 1 of poss 4

[09:51:08] watching if yhoo can break its resist, back to same # as yest now, looks breakable higher
[09:38:46] after yetserdays posted "early stage gdx breakout setup", gdx has gapped up a bit this morn, adds confidence to prior pattern
[09:16:26] *36.85=44.85 on gdx

[09:14:24] GDX NUGT TRGTS : Still have open order from other day to sell part of GDX nugt at gdx 36.85, and keep the rest for gdx 45.50 then 46.50 then higher trgt later,swing

Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wedn thoughts

[15:48:46] 60min 15min gdx nugt chart===breaking out early stage for higher for swings

[14:47:37] 4420 trgt if able, if trading quicktrade gdx idea from 4380, or the 3x nugt,,,i'm holding them as swing for longer, for higher trgts

[13:16:08] for those that like to use tite stops, GDX 4380 here stop 4360ish could

[12:48:05] 5450--5490 next mini trgts tna

[12:41:46] other swings positions gdx tmv nugt etc, less active, looser stops, letting them run

[12:39:47] TNA hit a few cents over the 5430 trgt from 930am
[12:40:33] small gain 1%ish on half of shares, but better than loss,,second half using the 5414 stop

[12:39:47] TNA hit a few cents over the 5430 trgt from 930am
[12:01:18] 1401--1405 coil measures 4 points, which just so happens to put it at 1409, which just so happens to be prior es high
[11:58:11] under 1400 es, could see selling on es,,,over that bias up intraday,imo

[11:48:49] 15min ES chart has a bull coil

[11:29:29] over 4412 gdx may pop higher, same trgts on gdx nugt swings
[11:29:54] 4383 last, one could add on a 15min bar close over 4412 using one strat
[11:25:17] second opp here to exit TNA 5410 small gain, but i will hold a bit longer, should overshoot the trgt and get filled, close to trgt now, conserv would exit and re-enter if actively trading,
[10:55:40] 72% long signal rang on iwm tf es
[10:50:43] yhoo looks like it can break resist higher
[10:09:17] TMV up nicely another 3% today
[09:52:05] yahoo popped close to trgt, watching reaction to the test here, stall would be ok
[09:44:41] watching if yhoo gets 1485, needs that in order to accel up

yest i posted TLT and SPX down, that usually TLT wins that battle, today TLT down 0.5% vs spx flat, the generality holds true in this case

[09:17:43] i will sell TNA at 54.3 if it gets there

Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tuesdays

[15:44:13] TLT down today, SPX also down,,,in general TLT wins that battle not spx,,,suggests higher spx lower
[15:38:45] spx can go all the way to 1388 and stii be over its breakout point on daily
[15:00:31] market maker reports show they r still mostly on sidelines atm

[14:59:09] es 72% rang. bias up on that signal for es spx, intraday only not swing
[13:50:16] market maker reports show they are on the sidelines intraday here,,,of course that could change in seconds esp this time of day
[13:48:05] 70% es intraday long scalp signal rang,,,needs 78--85% to move,,,intraday only signal not swing
[13:39:38] watching to see if gdx holds support 1 at 4380

[13:35:46] even if GDX NUGT close near here, i'd be happy for swing long position. it would indicate lack of followthrough from yestedays down day, and suggest new highs on daily chart

[13:24:37] 3min chart bull div

[13:23:54] stalled at buy trgt from 2 hrs ago, so added
[13:22:13] added tna

[12:41:17] TNA hit buy trgt but not adding more, hit .47
[11:37:02] prior limit order on TNA now cancelled, running with this exist pos for now
[11:32:27] entered above preferred limit price, will see what happns.,...may be a quick trade

[11:30:50] in tna here starter
[11:09:21] not sure if will get a fill, but i'll take TNA if it hits 53.47 long
[11:12:02] order only good until 2pm, and may cancel it b4 then if not filled
[10:34:38] a TLT longside swing trade or TMF may be setting up, no entry yet, TLT still on short rallies but that may change later, on sidelines for now
[10:12:26] i am not adding gdx nugt here, just keeping existing position and size

[10:11:21] GDX rite now could work
[10:11:25] daytrade or swing
[10:11:27] or nugt

 GDX will sell at 4485 trgt, NUGT swing will hold longer... gdx actively trading vs nugt passively swing

still see TLT to 122 below 124, but waiting for bounce to reshort using tbt tmv
looking to buy back TMV and TBT later
took profits in TMV  TBT

Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday thoughts

318
small port took, took quick gain on TBT bought earlier, holding gdx tmv nugt for now
[15:07:51] TLT now at the 125.60--125.70 trgt supp test,,watching to see if this breaks or holds, often it holds at this time of day, a break lower would be signif for swings

[14:20:17] If TLT gets under 125.80, it may bring more selling on TLT and higher TBT
[11:45:31] 70% scalp long on ES just rang 1396.50 ES
[11:45:39] same time as 72% TLT short

[11:28:28] added gdx layer 2

[10:54:25] in GDX starter position

1044
in TBT for scalp or swing at 15.29

poss scalp swing setting up: let gdx test 45, then buy pb on 3min chart, not ready yet

Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".