Friday thoughts

239
it seems that GDX 60min insists on forming this bearish falling wedge, for lower prices before a surge higher, where the surge should take it to new highs over 31 for swings. last 28.05.

imo, represents a buying opp in gdx and nugt. nugt has already doubled from 50 to 100 recently, last
near $75, for targets over 100, 120

114
notice SPY bouncing now...first try almost always does, when its a DAILY supp level not weaker 60m or 15min supp, and also esp if the test comes 10:15am--2:30 pm lower volume times

113
SPY approaching 163.00 test now support, and it usually holds on the first try...may get a bounce soon, intraday.... SOY hit the posted "active trader" 165 trgt and pulled back.

1118
GDX NUGT may be waking up intraday here now, 7750 nugt last
PLAN: will take profits on "quick trade" nugt at 80 or 84, will post exit. and the separate multiweek hold on nugt has targets of 100 and 130.

1023
continuing to hold gdx. still looks good imo. swing. and still buyable at curr price for swing holds

4pm swing system update: system continues to say "hold long spx upro". it will NOT give an exit signal today, so will hold until tomorrow or later.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thurs thoughts

135
TZA just hit its .60 trgt posted b4, tho i left early

128
added gdx, #2
calls would be at .62/.63

100
i have gdx and nugt, not the options, and would only use the weekly options for scalps, for SwiNGS need more time using monthly options October or later

100
GDX (Weekly) Sep 6 2013 29 Call are at .70 / .71...may go lower first

1259
entry 1 of poss 4 on GDX scalp...willng to add more higher or lower than here
GDX nugt is a lot more volatile than iwm tza and larger moves up and down

1255
OUT tza 26.41, quick fast trade of 1hour-ish, above stop early exit to lock gains, scalp only
may go higher, but its purpose was just to scalp, so i'm out with this stall and can always re-enter later

1249
tightened TZA stop to protect gains...stop .37 which would give options 13% gain,,,

1245
es likely to test 2 points lower from here,reaction there may be impt intraday

1243
mental stop .34 TZA i might exit it for smaller gain and buy again...this is just a scalp quick trade so watching closely and being nimble

1241
TZA scalp now in profit zone, 26.62 trgt if able tho may sell lower, I'm using tza but if one were using IWM puts they r up 11% from entry right now

1221
nugt gdx at this price, still good price for swings, not too late

1220
that GDX and NUGT sure does move
still holding for the higher nugt trgts, may have started its next upleg here today

1154
I dont have them, using TZA, but IWM (Weekly) Sep 6 2013 102 Put are at $0.98 / $1.00 now

1135
shorted at SPY 165.02

1133
long TZA 26.23, may go to 26.10 or lower before higher, scalp only, may be a fast trade

1116
set stop on XIV to .24 here to protect move lower and will take small gain if stopped and look to poss re-enter, tho if stoppped out there are prob other better ops not in VIX xiv vxx uvxy

NOT liking that XIV has not moved up with UPRO and SPY

1107
for ACTIVE traders, SPY is at 165 area (target posted yest) and one could take quick 2 day gains here

1003
GDX may drop to 27 before going to 31, 32, and 34. Either way, i remain in GDX NUGT swing hold

1000
4pm system remains on "hold spx longs" and it will def NOT give an exit signal today. a set of conditions must be met to trigger the "almost ready to exit" status, but then a SECOND set of conditions must be met to trigger the "exit" signal. "Exit" is always triggered one or more days after "almost ready".

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wed thoughts

331
130ish next nugt trgt higher, last 77.08

329
going to add more shares to NUGT swing...still see GDX over 32 and NUGT over 107,,,,this is a gift today to add, multiweek hold so may require some patience, but nugt has been good to us thus far

209
ACTIVE traders, not using 4pm sys...imo SPY 165.00ish will stall and is a trgt higher

154
hit .56 stop...running with 2/3...and may buy back 1/3 again

151
stop 28.56 on 1/3 of GDX nugt quick trade...thats for small gain if stopped but mostly because the "average down" accomplished its purpose, and will run with remaining 2/3,,,and poss buy back 1/3 again, 29.61 last

138
added...buy 3 of poss 4...gdx nugt quicktrade here at 29.42
waiting on #4 buy...may go lower, but added #3 on this lil stall...

137
looks like GDX is giving opp to add to quick trade on this move down, but not adding yet...waiting as if may go lower

1257
MM just raised their ask from .80 to .88 GDX...watching if it goes for test of daily high now,
last gdx .77

1241
MM gdx sell levels 2981, 2988, 3045

1239
if GDX see 2981 in next few minutes, may see a lil pop 10-30 cents higher,
there are some smaller Market Makers trying to sell 2980,,,when they r done selling then the sell pressure will be relieved, and allow for higher

1227
SPX ES...trying to break resist now...higher

1225
if it goes sideways or down only a lil then sideways, would be bullish...and may give opp to add

1224
next 3-4 candles on gdx nugt 5 min chart (next 15-20 min) may be impt...watching

1220
GDX might give an opp to add a third time to quick trade positon, if the 5min chart moves lower before targets are hit...no additions yet, and price may be higher or lower than prev entries.

Why add more, if one is adding at a higher price? because more shares means more dollars profit, tho the percent gain will be less the actual dollar gain is higher

Also, averaging UP is a sign that the trade is "working"...that its making higher lows....

One can also average down, but imo that only works when the next level is significantly less, and at a major not minor support area

1206
GDX quicktrade missed first sell order by about 10 cents, so im now RAISING orders to sell 30.13 (not 2994) and 3040, for now, on gdx nugt 

1200
so targets are GDX 2994 and 3040, for quick trades on GDX, and higher for the swing trades multiweeks (over 32)

1159
adjustment: have order to sell half of nugt gdx at  GDX 29.94 (not 29.97), and half at 30.40, for now...

1154
SPY spx marginal breaks in highs, trying to fill gap higher, 60min chart
watching to see if this persists higher or not....
4pm system does remain on swing LONG spx, triggered yesterday

1152
adjustment: have order to sell half of nugt gdx at  GDX 29.97, and half at 30.40, for now...

swing nugt i'm not selling, holding for higher

1147
bias on 5 min chart GDX is up atm, may persist for 2 hours on the 5 min charts...

1145
if gdx stalls at 29.90 i might take off half there of gdx nugt quick trade from this morn, but still see 3040 area later...will see what it does on test of .90, last .72

1122
IF oil hits 112 again, i will add oil shorts via long SCO or short USO, last 110.03

1121
ADDED more gdx quicktrade here, nugt, at gdx 2965...paid more than first entry so avg up not down, but 5 min chart set for nice bounce, aligning with 15min chart needed another few hours on it

1111
5 min chart of GDX: may present another buying opp in next 1--5 candles...still holding quicktrade piece, may add more, might be average up not down (paying more for second piece)...no entry yet

1107
XIV from yest, upro, xiv, gdx all acting well...
but holding for higher targets

1100
GDX 15min needs 2 more hours,,,watching to see what it does.
60min chart needs 4hrs--2 days, watching

I use the 60 min chart for stocks I want to hold from 1 hour--5 days.  15min chart for quicker trades. And of course daily weekly for trades to keep/hold 3 days--6 months.

1059
ES  SPX at intraday resistance now, watching reaction

1021
larger positions would take 25-50% of gdx off here at mini resist .79
for a quick 3% gain on nugt, 1% gain on GDX, 

1016
3045 is real target but i've set my order lower

1016
have order to sell GDX 30.20 if able, may sell lower but giving it some time to see if it want a little surge, that would be a 2% move in GDX and 6% on NUGT, scalp piece,,,swing targets a lot higher

1010
2952 scalping GDX long
This is diff than the NUGT swing position

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tues thoughts

358
for swing shorts looking for larger moves lower in SPX, what they need is some small green daily candles in spx es spy...NOT like the big green Aug 22 candle

SPX appears to be topping but it can keep bouning up and down, frustrating both longs and shorts
THAT aug 22 green candle, imo, suggests that another bounce is coming on SPX,,,and opp for trapped shorts to exit and look to re-enter later

Big green daily candles say "distribution" but "not done dist yet"...the small green candles are signs that distrib is getting tired, in general, and that big boys are nearly done dist

346
UPRO 65.90 in

345
4pm swing system signalled new "buy spx long upro" right here
so, i'm in upro XIV.  it's "hard" to buy on such a big red candle, but trusting the system.

307
and es may see 1642,today
last 1632

250
bought nugt, swing, 9180

241
shorted uvxy vxx....es 1630 sup

240
went long XIV 24.16, shorted uvxy vxx

202
out .22 uvxy, hit stop, .06 last
still have 25% of shares left...that was just partial profit taking on stop...

157
will just keep manually trailing it but will not post them all here
ES susceptible to "try" to retest higher today, given the shoot star daily candle, so being cautious on intraday piece of uvxy here....

156
43.08 stop on 25% uvxy..v tite and may be hit..protecting gains

137
ES 1595--1610 trgt if ES breaks 1630. right now its holding support in 1630 area, but if that breaks...

128
also i'm likely to re-enter longside spx at 4pm today....4pm sys will likely signal a long re-entry, after it said to take small profits yest on upro spx

it does not usually exit one day and then re-enter the next day, 4pm sys, but looks like it will do so today....still see LOWER spx for longer holdtimes, 4pm likely signaling a brief swing bounce, if it's accurate

126
Inv Bank UVXY sell level tier 1 approx 43.70, tier 2 is 45.88, i'm selling a lil under tier 2 if poss
but stall expected tier 1 4370

125
raised order to sell at 45.70 UVXY, 25% of shares, for now, may sell at prev posted 44, or lower

932
lim order to sell more uvxy 44

919
GDX NUGT are also up but i'm holding THAT swing for even higher....no actions or exits there

OIL is also up today but imo still shortable swing, same plan, holding the oil shorts and if it gets 112--114 are then i will add more shorts to the position

916
UVXY swing finallly at target 1, took profits on half of it
big decline on ES SPX premarket, es down 17 points but its also near support...es could break support but given a 10% pop on UVXY, took some off...UVXY could hit 15% higher 44ish but will see

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

mon thoughts

1023
oil at 107/107 is STILL shortable at this price here, SCO 2880, swing
SCO long, or USO short, or USO puts

1016
NUGT up another 5% today but still holding it for much higher trgts, swing

1016
4pm system still on "hold long spx upro" and position is in profit zone atm....will prob post when it signals "exit to take profits"...wasnt sure if this one would be a loss or not, but has worked out so far

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday thoughts

1256
OIL right here, is re-shortable imo...i've done via SCO...swing
for a move to 102 then 96 oil

1253
given that its only in a small gain atm, SPY UPRO still buyable at curr price, via 4pm sys signal, tho signal was tirggered earlier

1249
the 4pm swing system remains on "hold long spx spy upro" that triggered a few days back...its now entering the "almost ready to exit position" phase...but again, the largest moves often occur during this "final phase"

The positino is currently in a small profit area ....

HOWEVER other signs still point to a pullback in SPX (longer hold time than the 4pm system long), so I also remain long the VIX via VXX UVXY, which I still expect to surge higher 10-40%

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

wedn thoughts

1049
OUT of nugt gdx scalp.... 3% gain on nugt in 10 minutes...that stuff is wild...still holding the swings of course for 100-400% gain targets

1042
took gain on half of scalp

10xx
scalping GDX NUGT here

934
2840--2940 GDX buy area....will wait for entry...there are some trapped shorts at 2940 so will see reaction there if it bounces or not,,,if not then 2840 may be buy area...will let chart develop

931
GDX and NUGT i'll be looking for opp to buy again....still have a half size position in NUGT swing

930
have an order to sell SCO at 30.40, good for today only. thats about 3.4% higher from yest close...i see higher sco but will sell if it moves there fast, today... not necess expecting these uvxy and sco to be filled today, but orders are in to catch any big moves while i'm in san francisco away from computer


927
have an order to sell UVXY at 45.00,,,will adjust later
that would be approx a 20% move higher

921
Oil futures CL were down earlier and have bounced, but i still see lower oil for swing.  USO genneraly needs another 4 hours--2 days on the 60min chart before an "exit short" or "go long" signal is given...that is bias is lower for next 4hrs--2days...and bounces are still shortable with same targets lower

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tues thoughts

316
the 4PM system is still on "hold long spx upro" that triggered other day....

311
so Inv Banks have set their sell levels above all the prior highs after april 25, choosing instead the april 25 high and willing to wait for it to break the various resistances before then


309
Inv Banks sell level 31.20 on GDX, last 30.38

302
GDX acting v bulllishly, still holding half nugt gdx positions, and will look for opps to add more later
NUGT up another 11% today from yest!!!

301
OIL hit the 106.50 bounce "short more" area and has immed reversed lower to 105ish...same targets swing

943
imo OIL is still shortable here (SCO) for swings at this price 105.50, or 106.50 if it bounces there...a move to 106.50 i might add more shorts

939
VIX is up today while spx spy is up/flat... smart ones possibly buying protection insurance. if VIX gives a big green candle and goes up 10-20% in a day, i will take some VXX and UVXY off

934
OIL is down this morning, good for the swing position bought in SCO...still see lower oil higher sco, toward 103 oil and then under 102. SCO up 2.3% atm

Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:

http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Mon thoughts

354
VXX UVXY moving up....may end up exiting the VXX UVXY swings before the UPRO swing

when i did the last upro, i mentioned it was based on 4pm swing system alert, mentioned it looked early and this one might be first 4pm loss of year on longs...but took it, trusting the system.


341
may be leaving $$$ on the table by early DUST exit...GDX can move wicked in the last 15minutes...but this really was just a quick trade from the start

340
still think GDX can drop to 28.77 but would rather wait to see if it gets there to buy gdx or nugt there,,,,vs. holding the DUST, when my bias is upside for gdx and lower for DUST in the mid term timeframe

337
taking profits on DUST 3% gain
may go higher but it was only intended as a quick trade...bought this morning

322
still holding dust tho for higher dust lower gdx in short term, and holding nugt for longer term higher gdx

320
GDX puts up 10% since idea posted early this morn...

312
GDX is acting very bullishly here, but it seems to "need" to drop a little more on its 15 and 60min chart, failure to go below 29.30 would be esp bullish, but expecting a drop under that...would still be bullish and would presnet buying opp for swings

still holding the quicktrade on DUST (short gdx) but see higher gdx later

112
i'm keeping my gdx and nugt trades longside swing for longer hold time, thru this "noise"

110
I'm not trading them, because i'm using DUST, but i like GDX puts here...quick trade not multiweek swing.
GDX puts are at 1.29 / 1.31

GDX (Weekly) Sep 6 2013 30 Put

103
the daily 3 day pattern on USO oil is v similar to bearish evening star candle pattern

1218
GDX 30 puts are at 1.33
GDX (Weekly) Sep 6 2013 30 Put

1210
added more DUST here...quick trade...still holding nugt gdx swings

1114
Cancelled DUST order to sell, will do manually, still same trgt but want to watch it if it gets there, since it could run through the target...still think longside is setting up on gdx in time

1036
5049 trgt, and order in to sell dust there

1035
FILLED on the DUST, 4930

1034
i'm going to try to get DUST lower, but have an order above mkt to buy at 49.31 if it goes higher b4 lower,,,fast trade ...

1030
2985 GDX might present a fast trade to short, or long DUST, but for swings i'm sticking to GDX NUGT long, unless hold time on the short is small 4-16 hours

1025
MM ran away fomr 931 up to 947 nugt sell...the old 931 may still stall tho

1024
15min on nugt chart starting to base...will prob quicktrade it but waiting on pb on 5min and 15min charts

1012
4pm system (swings) still is on long spx spy upro, triggered near this price 1-2 days ago, still valid
i remain long spy upro,,,,still have the vxx but the strat on the vxx is diff, vxx uvxy trade not based on the 4pm sys...still believe that the vxx uvxy and upro will all turn profits...

1010
for swings: oil short areas are 116, 109, 108, 107.50, or here at 107.10

1006
i CANCELLED:   nugt gdx at gdx 28.77, good until 1PM
still think its valid trade, but i'll do this manually instead, maybe:


1002
MM not Inv Bank...have bought some at 2930--2970 gdx....tho waiting on the inv bank lower level to add, or sideways candles

1001
but i have 25% size on gdx quick trade already, and 50%  in multiweek hold...if i didnt have the 25% i'd be buying it here at 29.50ish gdx, this price area its trading at now

945
Inv Banks have buy levels 28.65 GDX ...
i have an order to buy nugt gdx at gdx 28.77, good until 1PM

943
the 50 MA on 60min gdx is 27.96

942
watch oil today for move under 106 (or under 38 USO_), and move under 105 in coming days would suggest 102 and then a break of 102 lower,,,,or lower USO and higher SCO

940
GDX now testing its 20MA on 60m chart

929
overnight oil futures tested fridays low, marginally broke it, and have bounced up....but another visit down there after this bounce finishes would make sense, and eventual break lower. i remain short oil uso via SCO

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday thoughts

355
32 GDX swing target 1

343
SPY just hit the .20 trigger posted before

340
3073 stretch trgt on gdx today, not saying it gets there, but if it does, then likely stall

332
3029 gdx first trgt

331
long .89 here on gdx, nugt

314
Inv Banks have buy level set near low of day, but sell levels are above daily highs, also bullish for swings,,,but again could drop first

312
MM on GDX in trade mode...cannot tell their bias or direction higher or lower...they r just churning it here with bid and ask both close to price

when this happens on this pattern its generally bullish, but it can still drop a lot from here before higher, esp on gdx, as we have seen over n over

259
SPY trigger trade still valid imo...i only cancelled cuz already have some upro

254
wow ES SPY SPX bouncing here

249
may quick trade nugt gdx at GDX at 3016 if it gets there,,,but will wait to see what it looks like first if it pulls back

240
still think the 102 oil, 36ish uso, will break lower

238
still think this is good area for swings on USO short, or sco, short oil

236
GDX may not make it back to its high of day, tho bounced nice here...there are MM waiting to sell at gdx 3050 and 3070,,,while the Inv Banks were at 31.03 but ran away to 31.47

Inv Banks ran away while typing...so may make it higher than the .70

234
CANCELLED order for spy long

222
Placed order to buy SPY long ABOVE the market at 166.18 if hit...good until 3:15 pm

217
Wish i took that NUGT this morn at the GDX .55 which happened to be near low...would be up 6% now with trail stop in place....expensive lunch that was LOL

but that's ok...lunch was worth it :)


1032
almost got filled...gdx hit 2961...also it may go lower than that

1030
CANCELLED order for buy GDX... i'm going out to lunch and don't want to babysit this trade

1022
placed an limit order to buy GDX 29.55,,,,good until 10:45am

1018
LOL the GDX candle looks small, but its still in a huge 3% range today from 30--31... thats like 450 dow points equiv....

10% range in todays high:low on NUGT today in first 45 min of trading

1009
if oil decides to go to 116 (maybe 114) before lower, i plan to add swing shorts up there, on a break above these highs

1005
the aug 8 hammer daily candle caused a bounce, BUT those hammers during a daily uptrend are usually retested and actually are only temp bullish and mid term swing bearish

hammers in an uptrend are bearish reversal candles, in a downtrend they are bullish reversal....there was a mini 3 day downtrend in the last hammer on Aug 8 but the multiweek trend is up

1003
USO oil... note the big green candles bounce on July 31 and AUG 1, vs the smaller green candles the last few days as it moves again into resistance....indicates slowing momentum and poss eventual drop

imo OIL is in bearish distribution since July 15...takes time


957
i think spx will bounce, then be shortable again, and next move down will be larger...for swings not scalps

946
not sure what gdx is going to do...but if gdx nugt can get some small daily candles, it may present another buying opp "up here"...it will be "hard" mentally to buy up here. but a look at daily chart shows that "up here" is really "down there" LOL....but i'm waiting for some smaller candles on daily for the volatility to settle down

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

thurs thoughts

358
bought UPRO swing, via 4pm system alert to go long

350
but yesterday, we did post that 4pm system is close to giving a long entry yest, and that  OFTEN THE BIGGEST MOVE COMES RIGHT NEAR the ALMOST...we def saw that today

349
this bounce...it may negate the 4pm sys signal long...waiting until 355

346
WARNING: on long side, 4pm system has 100% wins this year...its susceptible to a loss as it generally does 78-84% each yr winning trades

but i'm taking the trade....actually my computer's programmed to automatically take it...i just take them all, win or lose

344
I'm going to buy some UPRO at 3:55....still keeping the vxx uvxy multi week position though, and selling the quick trade vxx uvxy today for 8%ish gain

343
: the 4PM system is going to trigger a "go long" today at 3:55pm unless SPY surges higher first...swing system

 i still see lower spx later, for longer term view,,,but 4pm sys saying bounce

329
VXX UVXY testing their highs...will they break higher into the close?
holding for higher

304
gdx 3045  3075 trgt...will prob stall at 3075 and that may be its max today...hard to tell.

IDEA:  take profit on gdx if it hits 30.14, or at 4pm


301
will probably take of the "quick trade" in VXX UVXY today, but plan on keeping the mid term swing hold multiweeks for same vxx trgts over 17, even poss much higher

UVXY quick trade will give 8% gain at curr price, but could pop up to 20%ish area...so waiting until 330--400 to sell it

250
OPTIONS:  USO puts could work here near 38.25 USO.   If USO goes lower, the puts will increase in value

249
uso right now, daily candle, has a bearish hang man. still short oil via sco

229
NUGT up another 16% in one day today LOL...
NUGT hit Inv Bank level 970 posted this morn,,they set next level 10.02

1002
1650 area on ES trgt, same as its been, no changes

1001
still another 12 points-ish lower on ES

1000
spx shorts swing trade:  165.40 SPY trgt, will prob take of spxu and vxx swings there,,,will still hold some for lowers spy tho

956
could see 16.40 vxx today...above 1545...watching

955
1545 vxx trgt 1....over 17 later...various targets depending on ones hold time

954
nugt gdx very volatile this morn...moving down now...but very high vol green 15min candle at 930am

949
also the "gift" posted other day on vxx 14.34 hasn't looked back lower, up nicely here now, waiting to sell it tho

946
SCO still buyable here imo to short oil,,,,or short of USO...i remain short oil from yest

945
notice where it took off from...right near 7.90...yest posted Inv Bank buy level

942
Inv Bank sell areas for NUGT
914 NUGT trgt area, last 836
970 NUGT after 914

941
NUGT has taken off out of the gate this morn despite gap down, why i always like to keep half of it until the real targets are hit above, swing

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wedn thoughts

313
nugt suscept to 806 or 790 today

312
SOLD nugt at 827
: i'm out of NUGT i dont like this suddenly....
: may buy back today if it goes lower...may pop higher idk...for better or worse, i've taken gains on 100% of the quick trade nugt....

309
if gdx get 2843...i might sell the nugt.............quick trade not multiweek swing

308
looks like gold futures want 1348, last 1335

245
still 873 nugt,,,2915 gdx trgt for today...watching

230
4pm system is close to saying "exit shorts and reverse long" for swings...but signal not there yet...and the largest down move often comes very near to the "almost" signal

HOWEVER, we had an "almost" signal Aug 9 with no follow thru LOL...it bounced instead...just pointing out the limitations of algorithmic driven systems

225
"usually" when traders "go long" on this pattern....they have entered "too early"..tho as of late it's been profitable,,,imo its an anomaly

225
time analysis on current 60min spx spy chart (NOT on ES) suggests 4hrs--3 days "normal" sideways lower bias...BUT BUT the spy has NOT been respecting this "normal" pattern lately, as BS and others have pointed out

but imo, the "normal" pattern will emerge again...idk when...on this test or on a future one....and supp will break

206
i do NOT see the large sell orders in GDX...only at NUGT

202
849 NUGT there is suddenly a LOT of selling interest there.....it may churn there...and 1 of 2 things happen....it pops to 873 because major seller is "finished" or it drops as others join this major seller. no way i can tell now, maybe other ppl have software that tells them....my software will sometimes give more clues when its at the 849

158
 if u look back at a daily chart 1-2 years on vxx vix,,,u will see that almost always VXX up makes 2 big moves clustered near each other. first move is AFTER break of support, but smart money protection. second move is retail...who is late as usual.... imo VXX large candle will come after a support break in spx, not before

and when things settle a little after those huge VXX green candles, second or third one....then VXX presents excellent short opps to hold days weeks at a time

149
807 and 790 nugt supports...if 790 breaks today idk what it might do....possible spots for stops,

132
fwiw...Inv Banks not MM just changed their mode...they are now trying to sell NUGT at 836--842, and then push it to 790 lower today, if they can...they have dropped their bids

for swings, its a bullish stance by the Inv Banks, because tho they lowered the ASK price, their "intent" is to hold it down so they can buy more lower...but 790 is still a "high" price to pay for it

intraday,,,this could be bearish for NUGT as they try to push it lower,,,,so may trade this actively and will watch reactions if nugt gets back to 835ish soon...also will watch for further level changes in Inv Banks


125
we talk often of capitulation:  imo, the april 15 candle on GDX was long term capitulation...yes its moved lower since then but note how the action is really more sideways as this downtrend began basing at that date

institutions "finished" selling gdx imo on april 15 and have begun an accum phase....because we are talking about long term trend over a years time....the accum takes time too....

imo, GDX will see at least 43 again

123
once in 3 years type opportunity in gold physical and in the miners, and in silver, imo...this is unusual dont see it every year

121
NUGT has shot up 65% in 5 days...
when we hear targets of 100-400% on nugt it sounds crazy, but the 5 day move shows what it is capable of...also a look at the chart this last year shows such a huge downtrend that partial retracement higher is still 100-400%

114
uso trade partly based on 5 min candles red from 12:05, 12:30, and 13:05,,,also i've been waiting since 2 days ago for initial stages of short setups,,,,we are getting it now imo, tho a bit early still

cannot rule out a move up to 38 or 38 uso first, but imo i want to begin participating in short side iso

112
just took the short early. in uso short 3793...could also use sco

110
OIL uso sco uco has been very good for quick trades lately, 1hr--3 days hold
was trading it long a few days up till today, now switching to short bias in oil

109
just put in order to short USO... BELOW the mkt at 37.87, last 3792...waiting for break to short, or will short at 3805 area if it bounces instead of breaks lower

105
notice that GDX went over its July 23 high today, but NUGT did not because of decay associated with leveraged instruments. it illustrates why for swings, the GDX should be used for analysis not NUGT....holds also for SPY: SPXU UPRO   or IWM: TZA  TNA  or XLF: FAZ  FAS etc

102
Inv Bank Nugt adjusted as usual after 10am to: 810 / 852
GDX  2750 / 2920


1004
gdx 2820 stall would be normal but it can also break on first try, esp during first hour till 1030

949
MAJOR number on GDX to watch...not nugt...is 2820--2850 area...this is simple prior high from July 23 and a stall would be expected there..but the REACTION there is impt....

946
as posted almost everyday,,,idk if i need to keep re=posting...the Inv Banks will narrow the range at 10 or 11 am...they almost always start with this wide range. the wide range is useful tho, since those are major "avoid noise targets"

943
Inv Bank Nugt numbers this morn for swing:  6.20 buy and 8.80 sell
GDX: 22.77 buy, 32.10 sell

Because of decay and various other reasons, the NUGT and GDX numbers do not always correlate 1:1. Just reporting what the Inv Banks numbers are per my software

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tues thoughts

359
its a bit early, but i bought some nugt here at 7.24
willing to buy more if it goes lower,,,,which it could bieng so volatile

in fact...would prefer nugt gdx to move sideways, maybe a little lower not a lot lower, and but more there.  bought layer 1 of poss 4 today....

still have the other position in gdx multiweek hold....this new nugt i'll trade more actively tho willling to hold this several days and add to it at higher or lower levels

349
haven't seen a vxx "gift" in awhile,, imo for multidays weeks holds patient, vxx at gift buy levels...the stuff moves fast when it goes up, trading it requires one to accept lower lower lower for awhile else imo one should not trade this vehicle instrument

last vxx 14.34


248
i'm not seeing aggressively bearish Inv Bank stances in oil...at least not yet...so will wait another day to short oil unless things change today. right now, Inv Banks are "testing" to see if oil can get back to 108 and even 110....so on the sidelines now in oil

201
scalp spxu..may require 2 tries,,,second try gives the greater gain, per 5min charts...first pb bought usually, but "in" in case it moves nice first time...

150
uso just hit 37.99 trgt 2...keeping tite stops on remaing piece of uso oil here...or uco

139long SPXU 20.59, quick trade, as way to short spx spy here
at 1692.50 ES

137
if it were a mid term swing i'd have held for higher,,,but that was just a long oil trade while waiting for the "real" short trade to setup...no entry shortside tho,yet

136
took some gains here on oil at 3790 from earlier entry...on stall

127
oil breaking higher now...within the 5 candle time analysis before 130 pm...will it make 37.98 USO? have order to sell there...could even go higher but this is a quick trade, so modest targets on it

119
106.70 oil would be 37.95 uso approx

117
another thing keeping me in USO scalp long, and waiting on short, is the futures action last night in oil...it had a hi near 107.20 overnight but only 106.30ish since 930am...so wont see those highs on the USO cash charts just futures

114
GDX hold of 26.30 or higher, and bounce,,,would be a big change on GDX....would be first time the selling was small not big, after big bounce

112
if the rsi on GDX 15min chart closes over 45...it will have a bullish wilder rsi long setup trigger on it
not on this candle...on a future candle, as long as it does not go under 30 rsi before over 45....

110
next 20 minutes...oil may break higher,,,or move back to another support test chop...over 3770 at 1:30 would be bullish for it,,

4 candles on the 5min chart

106
USO has had some high volume 1min green candles, so holding half of the long scalp here and giving it chance to break resist...but it is at resist now 15min chart

104
OIL back at resist...will take off half, keep half, at mini trgt here...why we added shares on last test at .55ish uso

1256
its testing the 50 MA moving avg on 60min chart now, spy...tho price imo gives more clues than MA does

1254
notice spy 60min chart since tuesday aug 6...big red candles, followed buy bounces with smaller green ones...but thus far we also see lower highs on each bounce ... so if it wants to test its "highest high" near spy 170.50--170.80....it likely be sold on first try,,,or will it put in another lower high instead of testing up there?

1249
14.01 VXX buy target, last 14.34

1233
SPX now testing resistance level...watching reaction
but several clustered resist levels above it too.. SPY 169.50  169.70, 170.10, 170.50
I'll short 170.50 if it wants to go up there to highest one, today, and may consider shorts at lower levels

1222
added oil here, uso,,,,to have more shares, due to modest targets

1211
reason why waiting gdx ...with lower order..instead of buying support here: cuz hold time is longer, and using the 60 min charts...also for 2--20 days i like to see more 15min or 16min sideways candles, or bounce pullback type thing...which we dont have yet...so willing to buy 60min support but not 15min support...also willing to layer in if needed to add more lower or higher even if the 2677 is filled

depending on hold timeframe,,,determines whether to use 5 min charts or 60m/daily or weekly...etc

1208
have an order to buy GDX at 26.77.... last 27.37 near .34 support but for now wanting to buy break of support. this is to hold 2--20 days. could use 3x nugt also.

1057
took long oil quick trade for USO good for 10-20 cents scalp higher, then shortable at 3790...using uso not uco or sco only because better fills on uso

1024
OIL short target is bounce to uso 37.88 and 37.99...will see if it gets near there, last 37.64

1018
2830/2850 GDX resist trgt higher...

1016
Inv Bank sell level TZA 25.60, last 2530, with stall on 5min poss at 2541

1013
1684 ES...micro and new intraday resist on ES...

1011
ES 1650/1655 major support on ES, swings mid term not quick
1650 is the "small pullback" trgt on mid term swings vxx uvxy, or the VIX 20--22...may give more all depends on how intense selling is

1006
LOL support broken while typing, now susceptible to testing yest low on the spy, or near it...where the Inv Banks are waiting to cover shorts / buy russell...

but even yest low is breakable lower despite Inv Bank buy level there...will watch reaction...may take off 50-1005% of quick trade on vxx uvxy,,,but will def hold the multi week swings on vxx uvxy

1005
SPY is at impt supp test right now...watching reaction...micro traders would take profits on shorts and try to short bounce if it comes...still early enough in day where this could just break on first try tho....i'm just holding the spxu and vxx from yest, no exit

1004
TLT...if it can move up to 105.50--105.90 then stall and pb above 105.25....may go long tlt or short tbt or long TMF

1000
would be nice if oil bounces here, to present short opp...for shorts its "good" this morn selling, but will wait for bounce for new oil shorts, having taken gains on the oil longs already yest/day before.... but oil acting as expected and been waiting to short it since Friday 3pm


955
GDX nugt move v fast so this could change, but atm,,,,very bullish action in the GDX NUGT as the morning dip was quickly bought and pushing them higher....for swings this is bullish...would like to see some sideways now on the 15min chart and then buy some more nugt...the 15min chart might make another low first today, will see.....

thats why we were quick to take profits on quick trade DUST from yest (aka gdx shorts) this morning....

952
Inv Bank sell level on tza is near the "obvious" # of yest high...that may change as they usually go over or under the obvious

951
TZA is up today a lil...posted yest that the Inv Banks had a bullish stance on tza and bearish on russel...watching to see what it does

947
Inv Bank GDX 2680 / 2824... the GDX numbers do NOT correspond to the NUGT numbers...nugt is tighter

947
Inv Bank: 725/765 NUGT buy sell

945
............zzz
i do have the VXX from yest that is down red 1% atm...but holding that...still see higher vxx uvxy coming

943
took quick 6% gain dust,,,nothing like the 53% on nugt but it was a fast trade from yest

939
OUT dust here 6580
exited dust early..it could surge higher, but the plan for dust is quick trade...so taking it off to lock profits, and will re-eval looking for pop to buy NUGT and to short oil

938
order in to sell DUST at 69.70...may change that,,,,using GDX to make decisions and may have mis-calc the DUST # a bit in the fast moving open here

937
going by yesterdays Inv Bank not MM level...yest it was 2690 gdx buy as of 3:21 pm yest..i will def sell the DUST if GDX nears 2700, last 2755

935
pretty heavy selling atm on gdx...DUST benefitting

932
MM gdx 2770/2790........Inv Bank 23/32...as usualy Inv Banks start the day in a wide spread and narrow later

btw,,,first tiers on MM supp resist are def breakable either way...they are "interim" #s but useful to observe reactions at them,,,personally i never just buy or sell a MM level automatically, tho might auto buy an Inv Bank #

with MM numbers, the more impt thing to watch is how often they are hit...do they keep buying when buy level is close to price (vs far away)???

929
last 4 hours impt # for gold GC futures 1323 supp, 1335 resist, 1341 resist...will see how gold and gdx nugt do while gold in that range... no 24 hour trading in equities so i use the gold and silver to get a feel for miners gdx nugt dust pre-mkt, tho of course its not 1:1 relationship

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

mon thoughts

357
cancelled DUST order, nervous could still exit here with small gain...i'll exit manually in 3 min, afterhours, or tomorrow

holding NUGT longs for multidays weeks swing, and will add to NUGT swings if it decides to pullback in coming days

347
Inv Bank levels are bearish on russel, bullish tza at 24.50 tza buy, 2601 tza sell

341
most likely any action here between GDX 2783 and 2812 is retail or daytraders not MM Inv Banks
doesn't mean anything much in that narrow range

337
that # is in middle of nowhere, based on Inv Bank actions sell level, so may adjust it,

336
placed lim order to sell DUST 64.69 if it hits that today

331
2780 and 2750 more impt supp of course,,,but now susceptible to test those lower on trigger

330
gdx hit 2791 trigger

321
Inv Banks still waiting on 2690 gdx buy...near gap below

321
MM on GDX have dropped bids and ask both...a lil...nothing agressive but may see .82 test

312
if quick trade long oil, imo makes sense to take the quick 6% uco gain here....i'm already out...looking to short oil soon mayb tomorrow..quick trade 2-3 days on oil long bounce...short will be held more time

308
imo close of ES under 1682 bearish for swing, under 1670 "trend change" bearish

243
so quick trades on GDX: short 28.20 higher or 27.90 break lower

238
scalp trading idea: dont buy 15min support on cash charts after 2:15 pm, only buy 60min support. and short breaks of 15min supp and short tests of 15min highs

237
ES came close but didnt hit 1682...if it hits 1682 this late in day, will watch reaction...good chance it breaks lower this late

234MM waiting at 2783 to buy gdx....will be watching to see if it stall there or not, will give clues

232
quick reaction to the 72% signal as DUST pops up....but this is NOT the Inv Banks selling here on gdx...not yet...its retail...not even MM...yet...but price moving around

231
61.07 DUST...the 72% long dust short gdx just rang
quick trade signal only, NOT suggesting multidays weeks run up on NUGT is done, just quick trade dust signal

225
SPX topping process. no aggressive selling yet....it  tends to "behave" until institut are finished selling...then when they r done selling, they dont want to buy until much lower, and the market moves down faster...Institut do not want a fast decline before they r done selling

224
if it doesnt move today, willing to hold DUST overnight...but have modest targets on it, not like the huge NUGT trgts

209
15 and 60 min gdx "need" to digest and pullback,,,idk how much it drops or if it just decides to go sideways...but behavior should tell us a lot in comoing hours days on GDX

206
Inv Bank GDX are at 26.90 / 28.53 still

205
GDX:  the MM are still in trade mode, with bid and ask both close to price, about 2785/2820....until they drop the bids, gdx not likely to see large move lower...watching the bid

154
heres ES at the "trigger" test posted b4...watching reaction...looks breakable lower

153
2692 and 2780 are the 15 and 50 MA numbers on the 15min chart...tho personally i use MA less than actual price and actual prior lows and Inv Bank levels...but MA gives an idea

151
notice GDX 5 moving avg..on the 15min chart...atm its acting as resist....15m chart needs a pullback in coming hours/days...tho likely will be to a higher low on the 60min charts

134
DUST quick trade now near a "breakeven" mini gain of 50 cents....nervous would exit here, i remain in DUST quick trade for now, and simul in the NUGT long for swings

102
oil almost ready to re-short after the quick long trade,,,,short will be held for more time..no entry yet... CL futures, USO short, SCO etf

1259
order for DUST cancelled...will do manually

1245
intraday gdx still vulnerable, tighter stops make sense imo....look at GLD today...GDX may give a similar chart pattern....GLD has a lower lower on its 15min chart, unlike gdx

1235
vxx uvxy still buyable here for quick trades or swings 1455 and 3473 imo

1232
1671 ES still the major support # to watch...for test of it and then if it breaks...would expect it to hold on first test...but will bounce be small? and when that breaks, likely see further selling, higher vxx uvxy

1232
watching 1682 es...same below mkt # as before...if that breaks could head to lows of day and lower...

1154
inv bank set to buy gdx on mini break of 11:15 am candle low...supports lowering dust trgt...nugt may be buyable 760, last 780


1130
spx hit supp form aug 7 daily chart and bounce today so far...but when the aug 7 low is taken out, will see a bigger red candel,,,imo lower coming

Institut still in distribution mode...

1121
DUST when lower b4 higher, when higher was expected, so i've lowered my target on the dust and will exit early....

1120
lim sell DUST quick trade 64.49 if hit, last 63.2

1115
ES 72% short rang, quicktrade not swing, 1687

1110
added vxx quick trade, 14.53

1106
DUST hit 61.95 buy target, added

1054
bought DUST early here, 63.20

1047
have order in for DUST buy 61.95 limit if it gets there...quick trade only...still see lower dust and higher gdx nugt in coming weeks

1038
GDX: 2800 or 2850 ish may cap GDX for today, then pull back...unless Inv Banks change position...still see higher in coming weeks

1029
BOUGHT some VXX here a bit early, 14.63...quick trade...willing to endure lower and actually want lower to add...so will still add at same # as above

1023
aapl gapped up...ndx maybe just reacting...temp

1021
will sell short into strength higher, or sell short weakness lower...intraday, since the "swing" indicator favors shortside

1020
SPY rejected at gap fill resist 169.17ish,,,,but waiting to see if it wants to go over the gap before shorting it....spy spx

will sell short into strength higher, or sell short weakness lower...intraday, since the "swing" indicator favors shortside

1015
as expected, Investment Banks have shifted their GDX buy sell levels, now at 26.90 and 28.52

1012
also have order to quick trade VXX long at 14.30 vxx if it gets there, last 14.73....still have the "mid term" uvxy vxx swings for expected move over 17-20 vxx

1009
i'm going to quick trade short SPX as follows: BELOW the mkt at 1682 ES, or above the mkt at ES 1691, whichever comes first

will use VXX   SPXU

1691 is friday 1:30 PM high, 1682 is this morning "trigger" support

1004
look at SLV daily chart...notice that today its above the JULY 22 candle....whereas gold is not..

959
NUGT hit stop 767....will buy back later again...may go to 740 today...if 740 then stall...may buy there, maybe lower

gains locked, on NUGT,

950
NUGT has moved up a crazy whopping 53% in 3 days. so def riding with a tite stop here...still see higher for nugt swings to the 100-400% move...but quick trade position using tighter stops...

947
stop now at 767 as nugt moves up...wont post every change here to avoid clutter...but manually trailing the stop up on nugt

945
*7.46 not 753

944
put a STOP on NUGT 7.53 to protect gains, on my "acitve" quick swing position....multiweek position, no stop

941
right now Inv Banks buy sell levels are too far apart to be useful for today...they are at 23 buy 31 sell GDX..but they should narrow these in the next 20-60min...will see what they do and prob take some nugt off today

939
NUGT is up another 15% today from friday

938
remember on friday we were talking about how Market Makers were buying near Friday's highs? this is the common reaction up when that happens...the MM will take some profits tho and push price lower, so active trading position i'll keep tight, while letting the multiweek gdx just "ignore" it and hold for higher


933
nugt has moved over the 7.40 we expected :)

932
us dollar higher will generally push oil lower, since worldwide oil is priced in us dollars, tho this relationship is not always in place

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday thoughts

357
out of vxx uvxy scalp from this morn
about 4% gain last piece of uvxy vxx

351
"something" happened at NUGT 7.40 a few days ago...it was setup on the chart to 850 toward 9 or 10....but instead dropped hard...imo that "desire" is still there at the 740 nugt....reading my past notes

349
60 min stoch on GDX looks overbought...14,3,3....but it can stay up there another 2 days and still go higher...so sticking with prev posted trgts on gdx nugt....actually shows strenght the "flatline" on stoch 60min chart...not immed rejected ...

GDX may see some smaller candles in coming days...but can hit target on them...then pb and buy again on dip

345
ES testing support now intraday...watching reaction....
still have the posted daytrade shorts but will exit today...stops in place but they r far from price now...will still exit even if not stopped

339
notice tho..how Inv Bank chose 2697 instead of the obvious 27.12 chart high, as their area...and stalling here at it....but still thinnk it will make 2752 new level

337
a move up to 2750 gdx then back below 2700 would be "normal"...

336
GDX...old Inv Bank level...just hit...posted this morn... :)

335
2690/2697 MM gdx levels buy sell...very tite trade mode...either for accum or distribution..dont know yet

333
right now on gdx...this is MM buying, not retail..at the highs!!!
when MM buying at the highs not retail...watch out above, short squeeze poss....

332
MM have now set their sell level on gdx to 2697...2 cents under the "old" Inv Bank levels...just posting to illustrate how they often do this...they "take over" the larger firms older numbers when the bigger guys raise them


330
stop is really tighter than i normally like or use on the vxx uvxy...but not wanting to see red here for a scalp...swings are diff

330
candles at times 14:05 and 14:35 on 5min chart are what are keeping me in vxx second half here instead of leaving now...similar to what we saw yest on oil UCO candles, for last 30min pop

327
i have a stop 14.39 on vxx to stop this green trade from turing red, on remaining half,,scalp trade NOT the swing

323
raised from 2699...so 2699 likely to be hit on gdx now...and usually it stalls there....but at 330...it can slice right thru it higher...watching

322
Inv Banks just raised their sell level on GDX to 27.47...i think thats close to my previouslly put in order to sell nugt....cheking

Inv Banks just raised their sell level on GDX to 27.47...i think thats close to my previouslly put in order to sell nugt....cheking

321
MM...again raised the bids...buying near the highs gdx

315
36% move in NUGT...in 2 days LOL

314
same with GDX NUGT conserv swings...has been an awesome move last 2 days...they would exit here...i'm staying cuz my timeframes are weeks

313
on vxx daytrade...conserv traders would take the 2% daytrade gain on uvxy here and leave early and not risk it...or else put in a tight stop....i've already layered out so i'm sticking around in my positin for better or worse...per the plan


311
these buyers now are retail...retail made this new high not MM...
imo

309
2640/2690 MM sell levels on gdx...not inv banks
that is, MM bought at highs as posted b4...now they r trying to use that momo to squeeze retail shorts if they can...unless another MM comes along and decides to sell and push it down LOL

aka...testing retail atm

304
UNG its forming a bullish wilder rsi failure swing...i hate that he named it that because failure makes it sound bad, but its good LOL

but needs another 4-12 hours...then i mayswing long ung ugaz

257

 that 60min chart looks sloppy not normal

aka topping...but again notice how long it can go on and on

255
: wow look at that 60min chart of spy
that is def distribution...see all that chop?
been going on since july 16 on 60 min spx spy charts

250
2676 gdx sell level MM...so same action as b4

249
finished buying, now looking at .60 buy...MM not inv bank

248
MM are buying gdx "up here"...they are buying at the highs!!!!
could be headfake as they push it higher then drop it...but just fyi
but this is MM here in gdx, not retail

246
looks like vxx stretch trgt is 14.97 today...if it decides to go for break of 1475...but its not moving much atm on low vol friday

244
be interesting to see what GDX does...it's spring loaded to hit its target early and has enough spring in it to do today...will see..could sell off too...but if it hits or comes close, i'll take half off and keep half...nugt gdx

227
i'm going to exit the rest of oil uco from yest (second half) today...just trailing the stop up manually...it mayhave more meat on it, but it was supposed to be a quick trade swing so sticking with plan and just keeping it for the 2 days

UCO at 6% gain right now,from yest

225
this higher volume selling and then low vol rise up during the day, and hangmen candles, are bearish too

221
have an order in to sell nugt 770 if it goes fast there
above 740 trgt

219
if nugt gets 7.40 today i might take some off, swing, and keep some, and try to buy back lower later
or gdx near 27 should give nugt a nice gain

211
es at 5min support 1 now testing 1689

210
seeing some manifestation now in the stoch dbl top as es moves lower....

200
the stoch dbl top is also a bear diverg on 5min chart becuas es made a higher hi


159
see the 5min stochastic double top in ES? if stoch gets under 50, may see downside....

125
sometimes better to miss profit, or break even, instead of taking a loss, risk reward ratio

124
es may go higher, but imo if i were trapped daytrade long, i'd get out here breakevenish....stil short atm day

its poss of course that ES does another hangman candle and reverses up to highs, but imo not worth the risk...those candles do happen but are against odds in general

122
if the VIX finds support here...its at support,,,then es should retreat

115
gdx ....MM stil ready to buy at .50...gently

104
but its bullish that they bought it over the .53 pb so close to resist

103
selling .73 tho...in a "trade mode"...so below .45 or above .77 will tell us later if its accum or distribu by MM in the gdx nugt

1257
watching to see if the 72% signal continues to work on es...starting to weaken here on the 5 min chart

1256
see the daily candle in gold? even that would be ok for gdx...but the gdx candle is bigger bullish, not the gold doji

this leads me to think that maybe some shorts in gdx are getting squeeszed today...really just expected a doji or spin top on gdx today,not this strength

1254
2620 is breakout point, and 50ma on the 5min chart, and MM buy level..they r buying 2646 and 2625 atm

1252
2620 gdx before 230pm would be fine imo...and i might buy that

1251
72% rang...short..es...1690.75...intraday scalp signal not swing sig...vxx 1446

1243
GDX..MM stepped in at expected level and pushed it down a lil here...Inv Bank still waiting higher

1240
also, if that "failure" comes,,,the move lower will be harsher, than if it decides to test 1692, as there will be more trapped positions as result of failure...all just things to watch

1238
that move would represent a "failure to test prior high on 5min charts"

1238
if ES sees 1688.50 before 1692, likely will head to lows and not make 1692...may trade es if it drops to 1688.50 b4 the 1692 short

1234
or 1450 vxx here or uvxy spxu tza here

1234
aggressive could short the es 1689.50 here imo
72% has NOT RUNG yet...

1232
target is another 14% to nugt trgt, or a 54% move from 5.10ish

1231for swing nugt, i'm waiting on the 7.90 area to sell, for now....

1230
GDX NUGT strength continues with nugt managing another 8% rise today despite yesterdays 24% rise

even a 2% small day on nugt would have been "ok" today after yesterdays move

1228
GDX next Inv Bank sell level is 26.99,,,it's been respecting the levels pretty well...and MM are waiting at 26.77

1226
72% es "short again" alert is almost ready to ring...has NOT rung yet...seems to be aliging with non-alert analysis

it may ring in the next 1--10 minutes...watching

1224
very impt test here imo...if rejected within the hour, then lower lows intraday likely
else may melt up like last 2 days...esp on low vol and on a friday....

1222
but this pb on vxx was expected...why we sold some at Inv Bank 14.73 level, which is one cent from days high

1221
or, simple approach smaller position...just set stop to protect 1.5%  and 3% vxx uvxy profits from entry this morn, on the whole position

1219
may add shorts at 1690, unsure (actually just re-short the half already took profits on b4,,,still have half...this would be averaging up not avg down so profit on the second half of trade will be less than profit on remaining first half and prev covered first half...if that makes sense)

1217
bounce not done yet on es, but first 5min bounce shortable, then a long opp presents after covering shorts and reversing long...for scalps daytrade

1215
ES is bouncing here but under 1690 its still bearish intraday

1205
if in oil UCO from yest, its at 5.5% profit now in 2 days, and tighter stops make sense for "quick swing trades" in it...have half left from yest

1201
an "add vxx" daytrade may setup but not ready yet...needs more time, maybe 15more min

1200
If gdx closes today above 26.40, it will be first time it has 2 big green days in a row, since May 29 and July 22...if so this could be the turn in gdx, today's candle would not be a spinning top or doji if it closes there, and classifiable as "big"

1150
GDX...if it gets 2750, then likely make a run for 30

1147
if vxx decides to drop to 1455ish area...might be able to buy back some of the vxx that was sold today...still have half of the scalp, but no exits in the swings vxx uvxy today

1146
1686-1688 ES impt resist area intraday...if that holds its v bearish...break over it could send es spx spy hihgher but bias still lower atm....watching to see if a long opp presents in spy or soxl or something....imo "too early" for daytrade longs here...daytraders that bought 1688 es are trapped atm, and may want to "get out" on a bounce there....

1133
1504 next revised Inv Bank level on vxx...tho 1499/1502 is the "obvious" number and safer to sell there

11:32
the 10:55 posted vxx trgt was 14.73...it just hit 14.74 and pb a lil.... respecting those Inv Bank sell levels,,,

1130
this 60min candle on SPY is really bearish nasty...its true that they have been "reversing" these candles the last few days...but this is also classic distribution...the "let it back up" is distrib...but it will not keep bouncing imo,,,as stated other day... "usually" these are bearish candles, not buying opps....only recently are they buying opps...one reason why i keep trading vxx daytrades

"one day" the vxx will move 7--20% in a day and can catch the daytrade in vxx uvxy...until then taking the small gains while DT it

1124
SPY supports at 168.90  168.60   168.20   167.80  167.20...lots of mini supports so i'm just waiting and holding the short thru the stalls ...for now...at least until 5min bounce then 5min pb

1122
meanwhile,,,SPY made new intraday lows as expected

1118
it will take awhile for one of those to set up on the SPY 5 min chart...notice its only now below 30 rsi....spy would need to bounce, and then pullback, b4 that setup presents

1114
the Inv Banks DO HAVE higher buy levels for individ stocks, so not likely that spy crashes there...but as for SPY indice, thats where they r interested. so...the big boys are NOT TRADING the cash indices...they are cherry picking stocks

1113
"flash crash" support there....not suggesting at all one is coming...just that they will stetp in there, at least right now

1112
Inv Bank buy of SPY spx is at 165ish or near july 11 low

1110
 ..MM are buying QQQ here...BUT the Inv Bank buy level is way down there at  74.50 !!!! last 76.50
thats the july 25 low, where they will buy, atm

1103
gdx 26.47 Inv Bank first sell level, last 26.18

1057
SPY testing its daily low now and looks breakable lower...

1055
vxx Inv Bank sell levels are 14.73  15.43

1036
vxx second trgt for today is 1544

1033
GDX NUGT daily candle...nice consolodation...still much higher trgt for swings there


1033
stall on spy at 50ma on 15min chart makes sense...but that MA is not that strong...still see lower

1027ES has good chance of testing 1686 lower today
that may be spot for long daytr, but i wont go long auto at 1686, tho i will take some gains on shorts and on vxx from today if it gets 1686

1026
chart could change but unless they do, they suggesting now a test of at least 1671 ES (swing not nec today)

1024
i'll also exit some shorts at near 1686 es...simple method: futures overnight low

1014
1473 next vxx trgt, to take gains on another 25% if it gets there

1012
smaller positions would hold n wait on vxx daytrade

1011
took 25% of vxx shares off vxx uvxy.....75 /1.5% quick gain...holding 75%...daytrade size so large enough to scale layer

1008
es short kicking in nice now, watching for followthru...again daytrade tho see lots lower for swings too

947
i'm waiting at least one hour...4 candles on 15min chart...before considering long soxl...its needs time to settle on the 15min and 15min is sideways bearish atm...will see if it bases to give long opp...and may be exiting vxx around that time if soxl bases

943
hit 1695,,,in VXX 14.31
since i already have swing positions in vxx and uvxy in sep acct, and gdx nugt, this last entry in VXX i'll actively trade. will "take what it gives"...big or small gain...this is a quick trade

940
will prob short 1695 ES if it gets there, 1693.75 last

933
ES hit the quick scalp 1692 short trgt posted b4

but waiting to short it...watching

847
oil uco sco may also have daytrade setups today, like yesterdays nice lil oil trade.... swings still nugt vxx uvxy holding for higher

gdx may offer daytrade oppor too today
and some of the top 33 nasdaq, or some of dow jones 30, may present opps.


846
also 1692 ES may be shortable if it bounces there, last at 1688 (down 5.5 pts)...idea only, no order in

836
SOXL 3x has a nice bull diverg on 15min chart for poss bounce today. may daytrade SOXL today but will look for setup to stabilize a little, or see what happens at open.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thurs thoughts

347
everytime daily VIX has hung around 12, the VIX has made a massive move higher, all year, if u look at daily chart....just need to be patient and wait, and layer in

its just "too low"

321
notice how gdx has revisited the "old" Inv Bank Level of 25.77 even tho it overshot the target...this is very common ....mentioned before it was likely to go there

312
looking for 169.70 spy test lower, and see reaction

254
1483 Inv Bank sell level...will prob use that for vxx and uvxy quick trades that we took today

252
took profit on half the UCO bought this morn...

244
34.46 v tite stop on half uco---so tite it will prob be stopped out..this is ust a scalp so happy with it even if stopped...its just above trgt 2 now

242
remember..the old levels usually "stick" and they are often "revisited" when broken....the smaller firms use the old levels as the larger bigger firms raise and change their levels (aka big boy greed)

240
2673 is new Inv Bank sell level on GDX....they keep raising it, hence the updated posts...its a bullish stance when they do that

228
uco just hit trgt 2 of 3447, last 3449..still holding it...

227
GDX is susceptible to a move back down to old level of 25.77 if it goes to 2623.......not necess today

226
26.23 is still Inv Bank tier 1 sell level on GDX...they placed it below obvious chart resist of 26.47ish


221
still have 34.88 order in to sell uco...may change it to one of prev posted trgts...

218
 3435   3447  3488 array for UCO...same as b4...approaching t1 now
waiting...not selling at T1...

217
finally oil has broken resist on 15min chart...took all day LOL...watching for targets now...again not expecting a NUGT type move on this oil...just a scalp

216
sold a lil here...2573,,,and may be able to buy back at .60 .50 or something...still have half the quick trade, nugt

nugt up 22% from yesterday

214
Market Makers will prob try to sell some gdx at 2570..right here

213
GDX is now near Inv Bank sell level 25.77 posted this morning.....they have raised the level to 26.23 but the old level usually sticks....will watch carefully and may take a little more of the "quick trade" nugt off...already took some off as posted this morn....still holding the mid term multiweek gdx nugt, thats seperate position than the quick trade

204
quick rejection at 102.87 test on oil, but if data is correct that was daytraders or retail, not MM, selling there...always poss data is bad...

i remain scalp long oil for now

202
oil waking up here?
still needs to break the resist ,,,same targets

149
1690--1693 lower then stall then bounce,,,then may get second scalp opp to short for lower...watching

146
es 1695...short signal just rang...72% short intraday...in

129
11:10 and 11:55 am candles on CL oil 5 min chart are keeping me in the scalp...for now....but may be leaving this soon...its near breakeven atm

128
ultra low vol now on oil, since the high vol open

107
oil hit the 102.75 "trigger" prev posted....watching now for over 103

100
MM 34.35 sell level on UCO...MM not Inv Bank
so 3435   3447  3488 array for UCO

1257
15min oil chart has tested 102.90 twice...next test it may break it higher...3rd try often breaks it

1255
if gdx can go down to 25.15, and then hold there sideways ...may present a daytrade opp on gdx nugt

1250
over 102.75 is more impt than over 102.85...if .75 breaks then .85 prior 15min hi should also break

1219
below is the bullish RSI setup ...of course this is also a "bear flag" so it is contra-trend....thus the modest targets. but one can often trade quickly long in the bear flag, and then reverse to short side after contratrend bounce is finished.

Note that oval #3 is higher than oval 1, after being below 30 and then moving up. this is known as bullish rsi failure swing setup.... the "swing" has nothing to do with "swing trading"...its a 5 min chart so this is a scalp setup not "swing"...

i also like the large green candles on it, for small bounce

1210
rsi on UCO has moved over 43 on the 5min chart, not the sole reason for the trade but it has what is known as a bullish "rsi failure swing" so may get a little bounce, again just small modest targets on the contrattrend trade....

the 5min stock may need to go all the way back below 20 and then up again before the bounce, just depends

1205
uco 3447 and 3488 targets...will try for 3488 but if stalls at 3447 then may exit there instead

1154
watching oil 103 to see if it can break over it to 103.10--103.40 and may take a quick gain on uco if it does so,,,102.80 last oil price as it approaches the "test"

1132
Inv Bank sell level on GDX is at 25.77 under the prior daily high of 26.04,,they are back to "normal" practice of placing their levels above or below the "chart" obvious levels

1118
uco oil...order in to sell at 34.88 in case of surge...may sell it much lower but thats the "overshoot" quick trade trgt

1111
long oil sco...quick trade only still see lower oil later... 3404

1036
oil needs to hold here or stall...else another that stuff moves fast too when it gets going....else it could see 99 fast, last 102.40...and no sign of stall...yet

1030
 if MSFT gets over 33...may see higher and a short squeeze in msft....not my fav stock just fyi
its up 1% today, and swings could see a 5% pop if short squeeze

1021
still another 80% upside on nugt, for swings

1019
nugt still moving up. 14% sounds like a lot, but still lots more upside for swings

956
1690 ES impt supp level intraday...was overnight support but also was Tuesday 60min lows support (tues not wedn)

944
from swing perspective, still see a drop coming in spx, and hlding the uvxy and vxx, which move up very fast when they r ready

spx is really showing toppping action, for swings tho

investment banks continue to sell spy, aka bearish distribution, for swings, but takes time

942
on the sidelines now in es spx...its at a resist point but also in the middle...so waiting for higher to short or lower to buy, intraday

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wed thoughts

353
will be interesting to see what ES does 400-415pm

351
notice volume in last hour today vs previous days, ES  SPY

334
MM are selling into this, ES SPX, here, at es 1688
may or may not see reaction today from it

118
Inv Bank buy levels are now at or near the July 26 lows on spy spx
spy 167.50ish, spxu 21.40ish

111
took ES 1687.50,,,,close enough...added short
might want 1688 1690 but close enough

1254
weakening es...

1248
if i didnt already have some shorts from higher b4, i'd enter here 1686.50, but waiting for higher to add (or lower) since already have some

1244
order in, because if 1685 breaks, could move fast lower

1243
below mkt 1684.75 or above mkt 1688 ES...will add shorts, whichever comes first,,,last 1686

1242
VXX hit the "add more" trgt 14.75 posted b4...

1236
1688 es i'll add shortss if it hits there, good till 12:50
last 1685.25

1227
72% short signal on es is still valid...its near its entry point now

1222
1684--1690 add area...

1222
may add to short position..havent yet...es 1684 last...

1214
1475 vxx might present a buying opp to add more, if it decides to move lower in flag instead of higher...

1208
7 more mminutes before "time analysis" expires at 12:15pm...will see where ES is at, and whether it needs an extension or if curr velocity maintained

1204
the 11:25 am candle was the "break" on vxx

1203
VXX UVXY 5 min chart: shows a break out of the bullish flag...watching for followthru...the flag DOES allow for a lower low on VXX below 1481 before over 15....but atm it broke higher

1201
but usually...this pattern...the MM want to break the existing daily high...

1200
smaller MM are in trade mode now on gdx...buying and selling in a 5 cent range LOL...will see what happens with that...Inv Banks waiting up at 2500 to sell

can't get a read on MM real intentions when they go in 5 cent mode lol

1158
uh oh...is ES getting rejected again at 1683.50???right now?
1686ish would still be bearish bnc.... but 1683.50 rejection moreso

1154
interesting...if u measure the bear flag target on ES 5 min chart, it gives a 1676 trgt, which "just so happens" to land at the "more impt" level previously posted

1144
it may be at a "cover scalp shorts" or "add shorts" at 1215pm
bias still lower intraday tho

1142
watching to see where ES is at in 30 min from per time analysis, or at 12:15 pm
6 more candles on the 5min chart

1132
not much room to daily low tho of 1680.50 ES...weak bounce so far if this is it...but would also need to break daily low to get much meat

1130
short 72% rang at 1683.50 es...may or may not go higher b4 lower...but first bounce expected to be sold

1119
i'll add shorts at 1686 ES...order good only for next 15min

1116
72% short may ring in 5 -15 minutes or so....observation only, has not rung...is opp to add to intraday shorts or new position if missed short at the open

1047
SPY is near its 20 day moving avg now

1040
for swings, ES 1665 needs to hold ....July 15--17 lows...if that breaks then would prob see increased selling

1037
big red intraday 15 and 60m candles...first bounce usually is sold,

1031
even the 5min chart on spy is not oversold...yet

1030
spy stalled as expected at 168.50, simple prior low,,,but looks breakable toward 168.20 more impt level is 167.90--168.20...if THAT breaks then watch out below, but of course a stall should be expected and support is support until broken

1016
at least right now, in VXX its interesting that Inv Banks are setting their sell levels at "obvious" areas on the chart, this is unusual since they are usually jockeying above or below the "obvious" levels...

1014
1542 adj trgt mini raised from prior 15.12 trgt, vxx and uvxy

1009
168.20 spy would be nice, below the 168.50ish prior low (using 60m chart)

1008
but there are lots of mini support  areas in SPY between 167.50 and 168.50, so will monitor the short quick trade and poss actively trade it...just using simple horiz supp of prior lows in spy, nothing fancy

1006
right now, have lim order to sell vxx uvxy from this morn at 16.47 in case of surge, will lower it later, set 15% above cost on vxx, 30% for uvxy,,,SWING targets are much higher, this is just quick trade trgt

1001
we posted yesterday, that tho the vxx green candle was small, it may have been the start of higher vxx uvxy spxu and lower es sox....are seeing some followthru selling now on es spx...watching to see what it does...


1001
but ES may want 1670, in which case spxu vxx and uvxy will move much higher than here

1000
15.12 trgt 1 on vxx uvxy...may sell a piece there, last 1488

948
shorted es here 1689.50..vxx uvxy spxu
quick trade, 1-18 hours

942
Larger Inv Banks are on sidelines now in GDX with buy/sell at 20.00 buy and 28.00 sell... they will prob adjust these numbers within the hour to narrow the spread

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

tues thoughts

357
will be interesting to see what ES does 400-415pm today...

338
vxx and uvxy testing their daily highs now....looks like it could go higher
vxx 1483 remains inv bank sell level, last 1453


335
some increased selling here on es...watching if sustains and breaks low of day or not

216
will be interesting to see what bears do from swing perspective, they have a chance here because SPX still needs 4-12 more hours on 60m chart b4 buy signal...will see if bears push spx lower during that time, or if bulls defend for sideways...still see lower spx for swings imo

146
VXX buy/sell levels for Investment Banks (tier 1 levels) 1401/1483
sell level is above todays highs atm

133
72% short rang here at es 1694.50
taking vxx uvxy 33.43
intraday signal not swing sig

114
long UVXY scalp at ES 1697, or ES  1692, whichever comes first,
1697 is buying on ES resist, 1692 is buying on ES support break

1012
candle on VXX is still small on daily...but this may be the beginning of some big upside on vxx uvxy, similar to past moves...takes time

923
GDX 27.40 trgt 1 for now, swing
still have lower targets posted b4 for the "quicker" gdx nugt trades

913
still see gold going to 1550....swing

906
notice the gold futures volume today? its only 900am and its almost as much as yest. the 8am candle this morn has as much volume as yest 10 and 11 am candles

903
im buying gdx pre-market here at 25.09  ...still have order at 25.09 only part filled...

859
gold futures testing 1280/83 area...thus far holding, and may add some gold or silver today

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

monday thoughts

240
26.66 GDX trgt so will use 26.50 as an exit point if hit

140
long scalp here gdx 2556 quick trade...not related at all to swing gdx nugt, totally diff trade..
theres resist at 2566 gdx and needs to clear that...will watch reaction there


104
adding to swing shorts position today could work

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

thurs thoughts

359
just hit the 667 buy trgt,,,may go lower but imo good buy area here,

351
NUGT close enough to prior buy area of 667.....adding nugt here, swing, added layers 2 and 3 of poss 4

947
756 is an old Inv Bank sell level, so needs to hurdle over it, may stall there firs

946
imo...756 trigger # on nugt...over that should test 799, then 839/850
but i'm in no rush on nugt, can wait

941
849 trgt 1 on nugt

933
bought some nugt at the open here

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".