Wedn thoughts

313
nugt suscept to 806 or 790 today

312
SOLD nugt at 827
: i'm out of NUGT i dont like this suddenly....
: may buy back today if it goes lower...may pop higher idk...for better or worse, i've taken gains on 100% of the quick trade nugt....

309
if gdx get 2843...i might sell the nugt.............quick trade not multiweek swing

308
looks like gold futures want 1348, last 1335

245
still 873 nugt,,,2915 gdx trgt for today...watching

230
4pm system is close to saying "exit shorts and reverse long" for swings...but signal not there yet...and the largest down move often comes very near to the "almost" signal

HOWEVER, we had an "almost" signal Aug 9 with no follow thru LOL...it bounced instead...just pointing out the limitations of algorithmic driven systems

225
"usually" when traders "go long" on this pattern....they have entered "too early"..tho as of late it's been profitable,,,imo its an anomaly

225
time analysis on current 60min spx spy chart (NOT on ES) suggests 4hrs--3 days "normal" sideways lower bias...BUT BUT the spy has NOT been respecting this "normal" pattern lately, as BS and others have pointed out

but imo, the "normal" pattern will emerge again...idk when...on this test or on a future one....and supp will break

206
i do NOT see the large sell orders in GDX...only at NUGT

202
849 NUGT there is suddenly a LOT of selling interest there.....it may churn there...and 1 of 2 things happen....it pops to 873 because major seller is "finished" or it drops as others join this major seller. no way i can tell now, maybe other ppl have software that tells them....my software will sometimes give more clues when its at the 849

158
 if u look back at a daily chart 1-2 years on vxx vix,,,u will see that almost always VXX up makes 2 big moves clustered near each other. first move is AFTER break of support, but smart money protection. second move is retail...who is late as usual.... imo VXX large candle will come after a support break in spx, not before

and when things settle a little after those huge VXX green candles, second or third one....then VXX presents excellent short opps to hold days weeks at a time

149
807 and 790 nugt supports...if 790 breaks today idk what it might do....possible spots for stops,

132
fwiw...Inv Banks not MM just changed their mode...they are now trying to sell NUGT at 836--842, and then push it to 790 lower today, if they can...they have dropped their bids

for swings, its a bullish stance by the Inv Banks, because tho they lowered the ASK price, their "intent" is to hold it down so they can buy more lower...but 790 is still a "high" price to pay for it

intraday,,,this could be bearish for NUGT as they try to push it lower,,,,so may trade this actively and will watch reactions if nugt gets back to 835ish soon...also will watch for further level changes in Inv Banks


125
we talk often of capitulation:  imo, the april 15 candle on GDX was long term capitulation...yes its moved lower since then but note how the action is really more sideways as this downtrend began basing at that date

institutions "finished" selling gdx imo on april 15 and have begun an accum phase....because we are talking about long term trend over a years time....the accum takes time too....

imo, GDX will see at least 43 again

123
once in 3 years type opportunity in gold physical and in the miners, and in silver, imo...this is unusual dont see it every year

121
NUGT has shot up 65% in 5 days...
when we hear targets of 100-400% on nugt it sounds crazy, but the 5 day move shows what it is capable of...also a look at the chart this last year shows such a huge downtrend that partial retracement higher is still 100-400%

114
uso trade partly based on 5 min candles red from 12:05, 12:30, and 13:05,,,also i've been waiting since 2 days ago for initial stages of short setups,,,,we are getting it now imo, tho a bit early still

cannot rule out a move up to 38 or 38 uso first, but imo i want to begin participating in short side iso

112
just took the short early. in uso short 3793...could also use sco

110
OIL uso sco uco has been very good for quick trades lately, 1hr--3 days hold
was trading it long a few days up till today, now switching to short bias in oil

109
just put in order to short USO... BELOW the mkt at 37.87, last 3792...waiting for break to short, or will short at 3805 area if it bounces instead of breaks lower

105
notice that GDX went over its July 23 high today, but NUGT did not because of decay associated with leveraged instruments. it illustrates why for swings, the GDX should be used for analysis not NUGT....holds also for SPY: SPXU UPRO   or IWM: TZA  TNA  or XLF: FAZ  FAS etc

102
Inv Bank Nugt adjusted as usual after 10am to: 810 / 852
GDX  2750 / 2920


1004
gdx 2820 stall would be normal but it can also break on first try, esp during first hour till 1030

949
MAJOR number on GDX to watch...not nugt...is 2820--2850 area...this is simple prior high from July 23 and a stall would be expected there..but the REACTION there is impt....

946
as posted almost everyday,,,idk if i need to keep re=posting...the Inv Banks will narrow the range at 10 or 11 am...they almost always start with this wide range. the wide range is useful tho, since those are major "avoid noise targets"

943
Inv Bank Nugt numbers this morn for swing:  6.20 buy and 8.80 sell
GDX: 22.77 buy, 32.10 sell

Because of decay and various other reasons, the NUGT and GDX numbers do not always correlate 1:1. Just reporting what the Inv Banks numbers are per my software

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".