Friday thoughts

357
out of vxx uvxy scalp from this morn
about 4% gain last piece of uvxy vxx

351
"something" happened at NUGT 7.40 a few days ago...it was setup on the chart to 850 toward 9 or 10....but instead dropped hard...imo that "desire" is still there at the 740 nugt....reading my past notes

349
60 min stoch on GDX looks overbought...14,3,3....but it can stay up there another 2 days and still go higher...so sticking with prev posted trgts on gdx nugt....actually shows strenght the "flatline" on stoch 60min chart...not immed rejected ...

GDX may see some smaller candles in coming days...but can hit target on them...then pb and buy again on dip

345
ES testing support now intraday...watching reaction....
still have the posted daytrade shorts but will exit today...stops in place but they r far from price now...will still exit even if not stopped

339
notice tho..how Inv Bank chose 2697 instead of the obvious 27.12 chart high, as their area...and stalling here at it....but still thinnk it will make 2752 new level

337
a move up to 2750 gdx then back below 2700 would be "normal"...

336
GDX...old Inv Bank level...just hit...posted this morn... :)

335
2690/2697 MM gdx levels buy sell...very tite trade mode...either for accum or distribution..dont know yet

333
right now on gdx...this is MM buying, not retail..at the highs!!!
when MM buying at the highs not retail...watch out above, short squeeze poss....

332
MM have now set their sell level on gdx to 2697...2 cents under the "old" Inv Bank levels...just posting to illustrate how they often do this...they "take over" the larger firms older numbers when the bigger guys raise them


330
stop is really tighter than i normally like or use on the vxx uvxy...but not wanting to see red here for a scalp...swings are diff

330
candles at times 14:05 and 14:35 on 5min chart are what are keeping me in vxx second half here instead of leaving now...similar to what we saw yest on oil UCO candles, for last 30min pop

327
i have a stop 14.39 on vxx to stop this green trade from turing red, on remaining half,,scalp trade NOT the swing

323
raised from 2699...so 2699 likely to be hit on gdx now...and usually it stalls there....but at 330...it can slice right thru it higher...watching

322
Inv Banks just raised their sell level on GDX to 27.47...i think thats close to my previouslly put in order to sell nugt....cheking

Inv Banks just raised their sell level on GDX to 27.47...i think thats close to my previouslly put in order to sell nugt....cheking

321
MM...again raised the bids...buying near the highs gdx

315
36% move in NUGT...in 2 days LOL

314
same with GDX NUGT conserv swings...has been an awesome move last 2 days...they would exit here...i'm staying cuz my timeframes are weeks

313
on vxx daytrade...conserv traders would take the 2% daytrade gain on uvxy here and leave early and not risk it...or else put in a tight stop....i've already layered out so i'm sticking around in my positin for better or worse...per the plan


311
these buyers now are retail...retail made this new high not MM...
imo

309
2640/2690 MM sell levels on gdx...not inv banks
that is, MM bought at highs as posted b4...now they r trying to use that momo to squeeze retail shorts if they can...unless another MM comes along and decides to sell and push it down LOL

aka...testing retail atm

304
UNG its forming a bullish wilder rsi failure swing...i hate that he named it that because failure makes it sound bad, but its good LOL

but needs another 4-12 hours...then i mayswing long ung ugaz

257

 that 60min chart looks sloppy not normal

aka topping...but again notice how long it can go on and on

255
: wow look at that 60min chart of spy
that is def distribution...see all that chop?
been going on since july 16 on 60 min spx spy charts

250
2676 gdx sell level MM...so same action as b4

249
finished buying, now looking at .60 buy...MM not inv bank

248
MM are buying gdx "up here"...they are buying at the highs!!!!
could be headfake as they push it higher then drop it...but just fyi
but this is MM here in gdx, not retail

246
looks like vxx stretch trgt is 14.97 today...if it decides to go for break of 1475...but its not moving much atm on low vol friday

244
be interesting to see what GDX does...it's spring loaded to hit its target early and has enough spring in it to do today...will see..could sell off too...but if it hits or comes close, i'll take half off and keep half...nugt gdx

227
i'm going to exit the rest of oil uco from yest (second half) today...just trailing the stop up manually...it mayhave more meat on it, but it was supposed to be a quick trade swing so sticking with plan and just keeping it for the 2 days

UCO at 6% gain right now,from yest

225
this higher volume selling and then low vol rise up during the day, and hangmen candles, are bearish too

221
have an order in to sell nugt 770 if it goes fast there
above 740 trgt

219
if nugt gets 7.40 today i might take some off, swing, and keep some, and try to buy back lower later
or gdx near 27 should give nugt a nice gain

211
es at 5min support 1 now testing 1689

210
seeing some manifestation now in the stoch dbl top as es moves lower....

200
the stoch dbl top is also a bear diverg on 5min chart becuas es made a higher hi


159
see the 5min stochastic double top in ES? if stoch gets under 50, may see downside....

125
sometimes better to miss profit, or break even, instead of taking a loss, risk reward ratio

124
es may go higher, but imo if i were trapped daytrade long, i'd get out here breakevenish....stil short atm day

its poss of course that ES does another hangman candle and reverses up to highs, but imo not worth the risk...those candles do happen but are against odds in general

122
if the VIX finds support here...its at support,,,then es should retreat

115
gdx ....MM stil ready to buy at .50...gently

104
but its bullish that they bought it over the .53 pb so close to resist

103
selling .73 tho...in a "trade mode"...so below .45 or above .77 will tell us later if its accum or distribu by MM in the gdx nugt

1257
watching to see if the 72% signal continues to work on es...starting to weaken here on the 5 min chart

1256
see the daily candle in gold? even that would be ok for gdx...but the gdx candle is bigger bullish, not the gold doji

this leads me to think that maybe some shorts in gdx are getting squeeszed today...really just expected a doji or spin top on gdx today,not this strength

1254
2620 is breakout point, and 50ma on the 5min chart, and MM buy level..they r buying 2646 and 2625 atm

1252
2620 gdx before 230pm would be fine imo...and i might buy that

1251
72% rang...short..es...1690.75...intraday scalp signal not swing sig...vxx 1446

1243
GDX..MM stepped in at expected level and pushed it down a lil here...Inv Bank still waiting higher

1240
also, if that "failure" comes,,,the move lower will be harsher, than if it decides to test 1692, as there will be more trapped positions as result of failure...all just things to watch

1238
that move would represent a "failure to test prior high on 5min charts"

1238
if ES sees 1688.50 before 1692, likely will head to lows and not make 1692...may trade es if it drops to 1688.50 b4 the 1692 short

1234
or 1450 vxx here or uvxy spxu tza here

1234
aggressive could short the es 1689.50 here imo
72% has NOT RUNG yet...

1232
target is another 14% to nugt trgt, or a 54% move from 5.10ish

1231for swing nugt, i'm waiting on the 7.90 area to sell, for now....

1230
GDX NUGT strength continues with nugt managing another 8% rise today despite yesterdays 24% rise

even a 2% small day on nugt would have been "ok" today after yesterdays move

1228
GDX next Inv Bank sell level is 26.99,,,it's been respecting the levels pretty well...and MM are waiting at 26.77

1226
72% es "short again" alert is almost ready to ring...has NOT rung yet...seems to be aliging with non-alert analysis

it may ring in the next 1--10 minutes...watching

1224
very impt test here imo...if rejected within the hour, then lower lows intraday likely
else may melt up like last 2 days...esp on low vol and on a friday....

1222
but this pb on vxx was expected...why we sold some at Inv Bank 14.73 level, which is one cent from days high

1221
or, simple approach smaller position...just set stop to protect 1.5%  and 3% vxx uvxy profits from entry this morn, on the whole position

1219
may add shorts at 1690, unsure (actually just re-short the half already took profits on b4,,,still have half...this would be averaging up not avg down so profit on the second half of trade will be less than profit on remaining first half and prev covered first half...if that makes sense)

1217
bounce not done yet on es, but first 5min bounce shortable, then a long opp presents after covering shorts and reversing long...for scalps daytrade

1215
ES is bouncing here but under 1690 its still bearish intraday

1205
if in oil UCO from yest, its at 5.5% profit now in 2 days, and tighter stops make sense for "quick swing trades" in it...have half left from yest

1201
an "add vxx" daytrade may setup but not ready yet...needs more time, maybe 15more min

1200
If gdx closes today above 26.40, it will be first time it has 2 big green days in a row, since May 29 and July 22...if so this could be the turn in gdx, today's candle would not be a spinning top or doji if it closes there, and classifiable as "big"

1150
GDX...if it gets 2750, then likely make a run for 30

1147
if vxx decides to drop to 1455ish area...might be able to buy back some of the vxx that was sold today...still have half of the scalp, but no exits in the swings vxx uvxy today

1146
1686-1688 ES impt resist area intraday...if that holds its v bearish...break over it could send es spx spy hihgher but bias still lower atm....watching to see if a long opp presents in spy or soxl or something....imo "too early" for daytrade longs here...daytraders that bought 1688 es are trapped atm, and may want to "get out" on a bounce there....

1133
1504 next revised Inv Bank level on vxx...tho 1499/1502 is the "obvious" number and safer to sell there

11:32
the 10:55 posted vxx trgt was 14.73...it just hit 14.74 and pb a lil.... respecting those Inv Bank sell levels,,,

1130
this 60min candle on SPY is really bearish nasty...its true that they have been "reversing" these candles the last few days...but this is also classic distribution...the "let it back up" is distrib...but it will not keep bouncing imo,,,as stated other day... "usually" these are bearish candles, not buying opps....only recently are they buying opps...one reason why i keep trading vxx daytrades

"one day" the vxx will move 7--20% in a day and can catch the daytrade in vxx uvxy...until then taking the small gains while DT it

1124
SPY supports at 168.90  168.60   168.20   167.80  167.20...lots of mini supports so i'm just waiting and holding the short thru the stalls ...for now...at least until 5min bounce then 5min pb

1122
meanwhile,,,SPY made new intraday lows as expected

1118
it will take awhile for one of those to set up on the SPY 5 min chart...notice its only now below 30 rsi....spy would need to bounce, and then pullback, b4 that setup presents

1114
the Inv Banks DO HAVE higher buy levels for individ stocks, so not likely that spy crashes there...but as for SPY indice, thats where they r interested. so...the big boys are NOT TRADING the cash indices...they are cherry picking stocks

1113
"flash crash" support there....not suggesting at all one is coming...just that they will stetp in there, at least right now

1112
Inv Bank buy of SPY spx is at 165ish or near july 11 low

1110
 ..MM are buying QQQ here...BUT the Inv Bank buy level is way down there at  74.50 !!!! last 76.50
thats the july 25 low, where they will buy, atm

1103
gdx 26.47 Inv Bank first sell level, last 26.18

1057
SPY testing its daily low now and looks breakable lower...

1055
vxx Inv Bank sell levels are 14.73  15.43

1036
vxx second trgt for today is 1544

1033
GDX NUGT daily candle...nice consolodation...still much higher trgt for swings there


1033
stall on spy at 50ma on 15min chart makes sense...but that MA is not that strong...still see lower

1027ES has good chance of testing 1686 lower today
that may be spot for long daytr, but i wont go long auto at 1686, tho i will take some gains on shorts and on vxx from today if it gets 1686

1026
chart could change but unless they do, they suggesting now a test of at least 1671 ES (swing not nec today)

1024
i'll also exit some shorts at near 1686 es...simple method: futures overnight low

1014
1473 next vxx trgt, to take gains on another 25% if it gets there

1012
smaller positions would hold n wait on vxx daytrade

1011
took 25% of vxx shares off vxx uvxy.....75 /1.5% quick gain...holding 75%...daytrade size so large enough to scale layer

1008
es short kicking in nice now, watching for followthru...again daytrade tho see lots lower for swings too

947
i'm waiting at least one hour...4 candles on 15min chart...before considering long soxl...its needs time to settle on the 15min and 15min is sideways bearish atm...will see if it bases to give long opp...and may be exiting vxx around that time if soxl bases

943
hit 1695,,,in VXX 14.31
since i already have swing positions in vxx and uvxy in sep acct, and gdx nugt, this last entry in VXX i'll actively trade. will "take what it gives"...big or small gain...this is a quick trade

940
will prob short 1695 ES if it gets there, 1693.75 last

933
ES hit the quick scalp 1692 short trgt posted b4

but waiting to short it...watching

847
oil uco sco may also have daytrade setups today, like yesterdays nice lil oil trade.... swings still nugt vxx uvxy holding for higher

gdx may offer daytrade oppor too today
and some of the top 33 nasdaq, or some of dow jones 30, may present opps.


846
also 1692 ES may be shortable if it bounces there, last at 1688 (down 5.5 pts)...idea only, no order in

836
SOXL 3x has a nice bull diverg on 15min chart for poss bounce today. may daytrade SOXL today but will look for setup to stabilize a little, or see what happens at open.

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