Tues thoughts

359
its a bit early, but i bought some nugt here at 7.24
willing to buy more if it goes lower,,,,which it could bieng so volatile

in fact...would prefer nugt gdx to move sideways, maybe a little lower not a lot lower, and but more there.  bought layer 1 of poss 4 today....

still have the other position in gdx multiweek hold....this new nugt i'll trade more actively tho willling to hold this several days and add to it at higher or lower levels

349
haven't seen a vxx "gift" in awhile,, imo for multidays weeks holds patient, vxx at gift buy levels...the stuff moves fast when it goes up, trading it requires one to accept lower lower lower for awhile else imo one should not trade this vehicle instrument

last vxx 14.34


248
i'm not seeing aggressively bearish Inv Bank stances in oil...at least not yet...so will wait another day to short oil unless things change today. right now, Inv Banks are "testing" to see if oil can get back to 108 and even 110....so on the sidelines now in oil

201
scalp spxu..may require 2 tries,,,second try gives the greater gain, per 5min charts...first pb bought usually, but "in" in case it moves nice first time...

150
uso just hit 37.99 trgt 2...keeping tite stops on remaing piece of uso oil here...or uco

139long SPXU 20.59, quick trade, as way to short spx spy here
at 1692.50 ES

137
if it were a mid term swing i'd have held for higher,,,but that was just a long oil trade while waiting for the "real" short trade to setup...no entry shortside tho,yet

136
took some gains here on oil at 3790 from earlier entry...on stall

127
oil breaking higher now...within the 5 candle time analysis before 130 pm...will it make 37.98 USO? have order to sell there...could even go higher but this is a quick trade, so modest targets on it

119
106.70 oil would be 37.95 uso approx

117
another thing keeping me in USO scalp long, and waiting on short, is the futures action last night in oil...it had a hi near 107.20 overnight but only 106.30ish since 930am...so wont see those highs on the USO cash charts just futures

114
GDX hold of 26.30 or higher, and bounce,,,would be a big change on GDX....would be first time the selling was small not big, after big bounce

112
if the rsi on GDX 15min chart closes over 45...it will have a bullish wilder rsi long setup trigger on it
not on this candle...on a future candle, as long as it does not go under 30 rsi before over 45....

110
next 20 minutes...oil may break higher,,,or move back to another support test chop...over 3770 at 1:30 would be bullish for it,,

4 candles on the 5min chart

106
USO has had some high volume 1min green candles, so holding half of the long scalp here and giving it chance to break resist...but it is at resist now 15min chart

104
OIL back at resist...will take off half, keep half, at mini trgt here...why we added shares on last test at .55ish uso

1256
its testing the 50 MA moving avg on 60min chart now, spy...tho price imo gives more clues than MA does

1254
notice spy 60min chart since tuesday aug 6...big red candles, followed buy bounces with smaller green ones...but thus far we also see lower highs on each bounce ... so if it wants to test its "highest high" near spy 170.50--170.80....it likely be sold on first try,,,or will it put in another lower high instead of testing up there?

1249
14.01 VXX buy target, last 14.34

1233
SPX now testing resistance level...watching reaction
but several clustered resist levels above it too.. SPY 169.50  169.70, 170.10, 170.50
I'll short 170.50 if it wants to go up there to highest one, today, and may consider shorts at lower levels

1222
added oil here, uso,,,,to have more shares, due to modest targets

1211
reason why waiting gdx ...with lower order..instead of buying support here: cuz hold time is longer, and using the 60 min charts...also for 2--20 days i like to see more 15min or 16min sideways candles, or bounce pullback type thing...which we dont have yet...so willing to buy 60min support but not 15min support...also willing to layer in if needed to add more lower or higher even if the 2677 is filled

depending on hold timeframe,,,determines whether to use 5 min charts or 60m/daily or weekly...etc

1208
have an order to buy GDX at 26.77.... last 27.37 near .34 support but for now wanting to buy break of support. this is to hold 2--20 days. could use 3x nugt also.

1057
took long oil quick trade for USO good for 10-20 cents scalp higher, then shortable at 3790...using uso not uco or sco only because better fills on uso

1024
OIL short target is bounce to uso 37.88 and 37.99...will see if it gets near there, last 37.64

1018
2830/2850 GDX resist trgt higher...

1016
Inv Bank sell level TZA 25.60, last 2530, with stall on 5min poss at 2541

1013
1684 ES...micro and new intraday resist on ES...

1011
ES 1650/1655 major support on ES, swings mid term not quick
1650 is the "small pullback" trgt on mid term swings vxx uvxy, or the VIX 20--22...may give more all depends on how intense selling is

1006
LOL support broken while typing, now susceptible to testing yest low on the spy, or near it...where the Inv Banks are waiting to cover shorts / buy russell...

but even yest low is breakable lower despite Inv Bank buy level there...will watch reaction...may take off 50-1005% of quick trade on vxx uvxy,,,but will def hold the multi week swings on vxx uvxy

1005
SPY is at impt supp test right now...watching reaction...micro traders would take profits on shorts and try to short bounce if it comes...still early enough in day where this could just break on first try tho....i'm just holding the spxu and vxx from yest, no exit

1004
TLT...if it can move up to 105.50--105.90 then stall and pb above 105.25....may go long tlt or short tbt or long TMF

1000
would be nice if oil bounces here, to present short opp...for shorts its "good" this morn selling, but will wait for bounce for new oil shorts, having taken gains on the oil longs already yest/day before.... but oil acting as expected and been waiting to short it since Friday 3pm


955
GDX nugt move v fast so this could change, but atm,,,,very bullish action in the GDX NUGT as the morning dip was quickly bought and pushing them higher....for swings this is bullish...would like to see some sideways now on the 15min chart and then buy some more nugt...the 15min chart might make another low first today, will see.....

thats why we were quick to take profits on quick trade DUST from yest (aka gdx shorts) this morning....

952
Inv Bank sell level on tza is near the "obvious" # of yest high...that may change as they usually go over or under the obvious

951
TZA is up today a lil...posted yest that the Inv Banks had a bullish stance on tza and bearish on russel...watching to see what it does

947
Inv Bank GDX 2680 / 2824... the GDX numbers do NOT correspond to the NUGT numbers...nugt is tighter

947
Inv Bank: 725/765 NUGT buy sell

945
............zzz
i do have the VXX from yest that is down red 1% atm...but holding that...still see higher vxx uvxy coming

943
took quick 6% gain dust,,,nothing like the 53% on nugt but it was a fast trade from yest

939
OUT dust here 6580
exited dust early..it could surge higher, but the plan for dust is quick trade...so taking it off to lock profits, and will re-eval looking for pop to buy NUGT and to short oil

938
order in to sell DUST at 69.70...may change that,,,,using GDX to make decisions and may have mis-calc the DUST # a bit in the fast moving open here

937
going by yesterdays Inv Bank not MM level...yest it was 2690 gdx buy as of 3:21 pm yest..i will def sell the DUST if GDX nears 2700, last 2755

935
pretty heavy selling atm on gdx...DUST benefitting

932
MM gdx 2770/2790........Inv Bank 23/32...as usualy Inv Banks start the day in a wide spread and narrow later

btw,,,first tiers on MM supp resist are def breakable either way...they are "interim" #s but useful to observe reactions at them,,,personally i never just buy or sell a MM level automatically, tho might auto buy an Inv Bank #

with MM numbers, the more impt thing to watch is how often they are hit...do they keep buying when buy level is close to price (vs far away)???

929
last 4 hours impt # for gold GC futures 1323 supp, 1335 resist, 1341 resist...will see how gold and gdx nugt do while gold in that range... no 24 hour trading in equities so i use the gold and silver to get a feel for miners gdx nugt dust pre-mkt, tho of course its not 1:1 relationship

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".