Tues thoughts

339
gdxz should test .55

333
DX  UUP  US dollar had a big red candle on 3min and bounced, and nugt did not react too bad to that, so i took some scalp...if dollar can move lwoer, nugt may berak higher

i had been watching nugt for poss entry b4 the us dollar action, the dollar prompted the trade

326
long NUGT
y: 3000 shares nugt in vse port....total 6000 shares,,,if nugt moves will sell half (3000)

Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:

http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday thoughts

355
UVXY up 11-12% today

348
*** VSE port i exited UVXY swing, took profit...explain why later even tho think higher uvxy....holding vxx still tho

344
bought 5.46 nugt, sold 5.48 nugt for scalp piece,, exited to reduce # of shares in position, still have 3000 shares nugt swing left in vse port

340
EXITED nugt scalp, holding the swing on nugt, few cents profit/breakeven on nugt scalp part...just dont want to hold this much overnite...risk in US dollar

338
heres tza at 942/943 prev post trt,,,if this clears then 949/954 next but stall here would make sense

336
UVXY scalp was only 3%ish gain but it was also down 2-3% today red and i did not avg down on it...watned to reduce # of shares holding overnigth

vse port still has 5-6,000 shares uvxy for swing

330
** took profit on scalp uvxy, holding swing uvxy...still see higher but wanted the scalp piece out

317
notice this time...how uvxy caught up to tza as posted below? now its where its supposed to be

317
trying again: TZA testd 9.36 trgt .. 9.43 and 9.49 next trgt

303
uvxy should be at 843 not 828 here...will it pop up?

301
TZA testd 9.36 trgt poste b4 .. 9.43 and 9.49 next trgt

250
if SLV can get 28.16 it may move up nice, below 27.70 could go to 2730 even lower

236
tza may test 936/940 today higher

226
GDX still has resist at 37.50 so may not move much, but if that breaks it could move today. else will hold overnite nugt

225
bought nugt. dx. MM.

224
i might buy nugt earlier, at a higher price, waiting but may buy in next 1-60 min

218
15min charts triple bearish volume diverg on ES forming: 3 higher highs, lower vol each time...of course could go higher, and time of day affects it

203
us dollar chart 15min needs another 2-3 candles on it b4 it gets tired, mayb more, another reason i lowered buy price in nugt..

201
1549.50 ES R helod,,now watching if 1548 supp breaks...all micro intraday levels but

153
.. imo that was a "warning shot" in ES lows last night to long swings...chance to get out...maybe make new highs in SPX but imo,,,safer to follow the warning shot and take the gift of this bounce

4pm swing system is still on "remain short spx" for move below 1530 ES

147
if AAPL does get its 460 trgt...SPX QQQ may start to struggle since AAPL will be at resist....

146
R held on first test ES...

143
imot resist test here ES 1549.50.... 15tza 933...watching if mini R 1549.50 will hold

140
MM buy level 1 on GDX at 3740...atm my nugt order is set lower than MM as thjey appear to be layering

136
small raise in the bid on TZA about 2 cents away

136
ES  IWM moving a lil down here but nothing to get excited about,,,yet..... near support and MM are on sidelines waiting not particip much

132
usually if it comes that close and does not fill like that, it will go lower if it revisits the area

132
CHANGED nugt...will buy at 5.38 now not 5.43...may change again later

127
LOL nugt valid here too at 5.44,,,but have other stuff and dont want to change order

124
may see 5.38,,,should get filled .43

121
if nugt gets 5.43 soon i'll buy it, last 5.47, buy 1 of poss 4, for scalp

118
15min gdx chart today: i like the big green candles and small red candles, usually resolves bullishly after the red is done

116
nugt GDX is getting close to a scalp opp on 3min chart,with 15min, still forming imo

1224
34.25 poss short area in oil USO swing, not there yet and idk if setup will form but watching, poss SCO

1148
MM are in do-nothing mode right now, THAT does not usually last long...they r far frrom both bid and ask,,,after a lil algo battle (or BAD DATA not sure which)...

1129
ES 15min chart setting up the "short second higher hi"...still under constructions...in this case might be dbl top vs higher hi, why i tried half a bit early

1124
*** MM just dropped IWM bids to just over low of day...watching if anything happns

1121
if ES and IWM were at support intraday right now i'd take a quick scalp gain on the uvxy about 1%ish...but they r at resist so giving it some room in muvxy

1120
tza may test 941 wiuthin next few candles

1111
testing resist now on 15min chart...watching reaction


1110
MM have now raised ask..into the gap fill slighlty above..they r moving it around quite a bit

1108
UVXY creeping a lil higher ahead of tza, not myuch but creeping...potentially bullish for both tza and uvxy, bear spy

1101
MM sitting pennies awayy from ask now...if they dont raise ask, IWM will drop more...watching


1100
: MM selling at mkt price now...iwm
this candle is MM selling on 3min chart, not retail

1046
72% short ES just rang, scalp alert, 1545.50

1034
added more uvxy, near same price, to have more shares, not cost avg up or down, scalp..buy 2 of poss 4

1022
Russel cleared by MM to test todays lows... may take seom time,,,watching what they do with the BID and ASK levels

1014
long uvxy 8.43, scalp....keeping swing uvxy still in other account,,,may add more scalp uvxy later

1009
might see some sideways here if MM want to "distribute", poss bearish consolodiation sideways or flag higher, and lower later


1008
MM just dropped the ask...lsat 3min bar is MM selling


1006
buy level is close here at 9400 but i wouldnt read too much into it atm....need to let things settle down here

1005
fwiw Market Maker Sell levels curr at IWM 94.30 and 94.70,,,but they may change those later, especially since its still early in day and a huge overnight move in ES futures

953
VSE.marketwatch.com Stock contested started Jan 2 with 158 players. i joined the contest late (March 14), don't expect to "win" but good practice... my ranking is in Top 20 at the moment after joining 2+ months late. 


946
OIL CL futures and UCO hit their long targets this morn....poss will have a setup to reverse to short, but i'm on sidelines for now in oil

942
amazingly but not surprisingly AAPL is UP today... I did talk about how AAPL could go higher while market moved lower. AAPL up 0.7% vs SPY down 0.8%

934
we dont always know "why" Market Makers and Investment Banks are taking certain actions of buying or selling, but their intent is revealed ahead of time by their actions

928
i'm sure most of you know, but for this without futures quotes, the ES overnight low of 1529.50 was much lowere than here, last es 1538.50.

Pullbacks, move lower in ES, This is what happens when Market Makers and Investment Banks are selling intraday for 2 days, although the reaction sometimes takes more than 2 day, regardless of Cypress events. Cypress may have magnified it, but ES would have dropped anyway. Perhaps the MM knew about Cypress ahead of time.

Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:

http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday thoughts

346
looks like they want NEM under 40 for opex...could hold down nugt till next week

342
notice russel TNA 3min chart....see how its not making higher highs like spy?

317
67% rang on GDX NUGT long scalps...if it hits 72 or 74% may pop nice in the last hour here

308
russel MM raised the ASK...watching if it goes higher
may just be a test,,,,
on sidelines for a few minutes...

300
theres the expectede bounce on tza .24...now watching if it sustains....tricky this time of day

258
tza hit the .24....bounce???

253
VSE port: if UVXY moves today...its starting to now.,,,will sell 3000 shares and keep 5,000 shares

241
924 tza should hold on first try if it drops 2 cents

239
could be fireworks today...but MM need to hold their levels closer to price, for longer, for fireworks,,,may come as result of todays earlier "dueling"...but atm they are hitting it and stepping away,,not sustaining it

236
tza hit panic buy 1 by 1 penny, now approaching trgt 1 up

234
4pm trading system is getting closer to signal an "exit shorts and reverse long",,, BUT often the "big selling" comes just b4 the signal rings...its not ready yet... that 4pm signal could come on Monday, or could come days later...just watching it atm

230
MM still sitting on the ask here...pennies away from last price

228
936 tza trgt for a stall if it gets there

227
MM selling russel now, at this price

227
LOL the TZA buy level 1 today was 916...low of day so far...917  ••   with a nice bounce as it hit near the 916

223
72% alert gave decent short opp today,,,,trail stop if trading it

221
that is what happened yest...bought NUGT for scalp/swing combo but then sold it cuz moved....bought bak today

220
IF NUGT moves today i'll sell what i just bought, and keep swing piece ...else will hold it all for higher targets

215
BAC...took a loss of 6 cents...may go lower but not moving and like NUGT better, willing to hold NUGT overnight, don't want BAC short to hold overnight so i exited

214
exited BAC...took a loss of 6 cents

203
will prob add NUGT soon

151
NUGT may pb again....could still chop around ttho 3min chart looks good...  dollar could still need a few more candles on the 15min chart

144
MM sellling russel again

129
well at least the us dollar DX   UUP is acting "normally"...dollar causing some chop in nugt but letting the DX 15min drift higher,,,a stall there may present an opp long gdx nugt silver gold

108
last green candle 3min IWM was MM buy
but waiting 9500is to sell

107
9474 buy IWM and 9500 sell IWM some type of trading disagreement going on

104
MM buy level near 9474ish IWM

100
this is a bit unusual this action...either my data is bad, or there are MM fighting each other, unaligned algos, not sure,,,may provide some entertainment LOL

1258
hmm: MM buying this

1254
not quite sure what that last red candle 3min is...data says not MM selling this

1250
interesting the vxx 15min chart stronger than tza 15min chart...could be bullish for both tza aned uvxy

but not adding any uvxy here

1237
came close to tza 916 there...916 and 901 remain the panic buy levels...i'm only intersted in 901 for now

1233
atm,,,MM are selling, stepping of, let if higher, then sell...frustrating if short but eventually for swings it generally triggers a pullback

1230
buy levels now near the low of day, MM

1230
1 min later,, ES reacting to the MM sells...watching to see how long they sustain it....observations

1229
some gentle selling rite now by Market Makers, at 1555.50 es, 920 tza...nothing aggressive but they r not standing back...may let it drift higher but selling into it

1225
916 and 901 tza daily panic buy levels...if tza approaches 901, may buy some uvxy

1211
3715 GDX will observer reaction if tests..

1206
72% may give 1552 ES stall bounce then lower

1201
72% short scalp alert rang, ES 1555

1152
SPY may want to drift up to 156.10...if so will observe reaction there

1152
BAC does have a nice red 15min candle on it, watching for followthru lower

1150
if SPY didnt look a bit tired on 3min chart, i'd exit BAC here at breakeven, but giving it a chance a lil while longer since some tiredness in spx

1149
looking to exit the BAC short pretty soon, if it can just move down a lil more

1148
watching 545 nugt,,,if it stalls an pulls back only a little, i may scalp it...already have swing nugt

1145
DX should test 82.00...if that breaks lower may see fireworks, tho prob stall on first test,,,still aways away tho

1112
: PCS at 10.57 now from 10.12 (posting yesterday)

1052
still will likely see stall at 941/943 tza (prior MM area b4 change) if it makes it there today ... usually when they change levels, the old levels still have resist in them and stalls

1049
tza is cleared for a test to 9.50 today by MarketMakers


1030
VSE.marketwatch.com Stock contested started Jan 2 with 158 players. i joined the contest late (yest March 14), don't expect to "win" but good practice... my ranking is at 42 now after late join.

1011
for swings (not scalps) in vxx or uvxy: remember that it moves up faster than down,,,,small red candles and big green ones is characteristic on daily...tho only makes sense imo to trade vxx uvxy swing when SPX is at extreme levels

957
941 tza not 932 trgt,,,second hi not first is trgt

956
LOL wow its pretty turbulent n choppy in some stocks, wild swings up down here :)

949
 shrted BAC 12.50

920
 nice move in US dollar too DX
NUGT benefitting from dollar, trading up 1.5%ish gap from yest

919
AAPL premarket trading up $7.50 or 2% ish atm

Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:

http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thurs thoughts

Free chat and idea exchange. Nothing is for sale. Join us at http://tradingspot.chatango.com/

359
 took 1.2% profit on NUGT scalp #2


325
EXITED trade in GME breakeven (2 cent profit per share lol)...dont want to hold overnite

323
1.2% gain...exited AKS...will re-eval entry later

314
still have gme and aks,among others

314
1.6% took profit...10.23 PCS hit...good enough. out scalp


244
nugt might give opp soon to buy back scalp shares sold b4...its lower now 537 vs 543 sell

224
y: long GME

205
EXITED and took profit in the NUGT scalp, keeping nugt swing for now, suceptible to poss move under 543 where may buy scalp back again


154
74% close to ringing, ES short

150
pcs up to 1018 now, this time one could try for .22 trgt instead

140
MM action: they have NOT cleared GDX for over 3750 but watching for behvior that would allow it over 3750

137
4-5 minutes later...starting now to see reactino to 72% alerts in ES UVXY:  often ES will bounce after first move down (seeing lil down now), then make a lower low

132
UVXY may move now, if the 70 and 72% alerts kick in

126
551 nugt "hidden level" may be more impt level than 575 clear level..watching reactions if gets there, trying now

125
Market Maker MM action: same as b4, gentle selling, with a goal trgt of 9.60 higher in tza,last tza 933....still same "panic buy" levels lower in tza...MM actions bearish for swings in spx russel,.,,,suggests a pullback move lower,,, this was happening yest to by MM, same action, takes time to materialize


123
72% short ES rang 1554.75

121
NUGT going for 3rd try stab at the high...it often breaks higher on 3rd try when the pb was small like this, watching,,,DX has not bounced on the 15min


118
uvxy 8.12


118
70% short ES rang here 1555

106
first try higher on 15min DX likely will fail, then will pb ,,,then may be time to exit nugt ...may take awhile


103
NUGT is stalling here as expected...but giving a lil time to try to break higher...watching DX UUP

101
1011--1018 pcs did its lil scalp routine, tho i cancelled the order
likely to do so again, tho i cancelled order and didnt trade it

1254
DX dollar trgt 8260...and if it gets there, then NUGT should be over 550...just dont know "how fast"

1254
Plan for nugt (scalp part not swing)...if it stalls near 547ish i'll take quick gain...but giving a chance to "blast thru" it, so not putting in a limit order in case it surges...expecting stall tho

1246
over 5.51 it could rock today,,,BUT i think a stall there, 547/551

1246
here comes nugt...looks like an attack on daily highs coming , for t2

1223
UVXY holding up well...its not making new lows with new highs in ES

1217
NUGT at daily high now, but still trying to sell 5.49 instead if able, scalp piece now swing, swing will hold longer


1204
 Smart money bought 36.57 GDX...that was exact invest bank level from yest bought today....which matches OBV observation
: i REALLY like it,,,when the Inv Bank levels are NOT at clear horizontal or trendline support
 means the Inv Banks bought the mini supp break, but bought OVER the next lower level of supp,,,,,bullish
that is, GDX charts showed supports at 36.70 and 36.30...but the Inv Bank level was 36.57, where it was bought in between....retail missed the opp

1147
CANCELLED pcs order..never filled

1144
if DX 3min chart can bounce some more, may provid opp for long silver...waiting

1133
order to buy PCS stop mrkt 10.11,,, 10.09 last

1120
AKS chart is similar to X chart

1107
in time AKS may go to 4.40, to form a W on daily chart...also buy second lower low on daily aks bounced, and this is backtesting the bounce now

but for now, just scalping it

1056
AKS is near support from march 5 and march 6, after a nice green daily candle march 6

1048
bought long AKS steel 3.50

1041
but with ES here, i'd use 9.16 buy area instead for now, maybe higher later in day tza

1035
us dollar DX futures...there is a LOT of selling today in dollar...should benefit nugt gold silver
tho dollar is now at 60 min support levels

1029
will buy nugt 5.16 if filled
.  that would be a mini break lower of nugt 3min support aka stop cleaner

1021
CANCELLED order to add uvxy 7.86 for now,,,didnt get fill and now moved up too much, not sure i want it "down there"....will re-eval later

1021
MM are NOT selling atm....but have tza 960 as trgt to drift there

1010
TRADING TIP OF THE DAY:  If you are on a losing streak, STOP looking at the lowest timeframe chart and use only the slowest 2 or 3.

1010
834 UVXY resist trgt up, 7.86 uvxy buy level

1010
tza hit my yesterdays panic buy level 9.38 (9.36 low) and bounced, but i'll still wait a bit for 9.31,,,tho if i didnt have any the 9.38 is still buyable

1005
RARELY do i short SPX, compared to long entries, but i remain swing short here, and will add little by little at the extreme numbers posted daily (if filled, often no fill)

1004
for swing shorts this continues painfully, BUT the MM are selling again today...gently but selling...eventually i believe relief will come in lower prices in spx and higher tza... also the charts suggest this too with wedges, AND also the 4pm system 1 remains on "short" and 4pm system 2 (long only never short) remains on "exit to take upro long profits 2 days ago at 4pm")


956
NUGT trgt 5.49...

938
931 tza buy level now, lil adjustment

936
GDX hit EXACTLY my 36.57 target to buy posted yest. Added NUGT near the open today, per open order posted yesterday

Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:

http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wedn thoughts

Free chat and idea exchange. Nothing is for sale. Join us at http://tradingspot.chatango.com/

331
3min ES poss bearish candle pattern near the close here...big red candle followed by lotsa small ones...watching


308
2150 would do it for me on vxx, for uvxy

308
UVXY scalp might take off 3000 shares today if moves more up, holding rest swing

259
ES 1550 MM sell level atm

255
look at TLT since noon...interesting,,,that setup is potentially bearish for spx swings

253
Today is first day i've seen MM selling with an ask near price...they were even selling near the lows, usually means lower lows for swings...but in meantime anything can happn

234
its not "normal" for Inv Bank to buy at a higher price than MM, but it does happen often enough

233
hmm Market Maker buy level is now BELOW the Inv Bank buy level...so downside a bit more limited now, looks like Inv Banks still have some selling to do and will be in crash protect mode...translates to TZA up to 974 instead of 982, then tza pb, then a move over 982 toward 1025...but apparantely Inv Banks have more distribution first

229
MM sitting juyst below days highs atm

158
3657 gdx coming? still have order to buy there

156
vse port been chopping around 29--34% roi....expecting a move up to 45%ish soon when curr new positions kick in

136
or 3657 lower,,whatever comes first lol

136
3740 or 3780 approx gdx trgts for scalp part of gdx nugt bought today...swing trgt higher of course

115
i think down is coming ,,within days, spx

110
yea...i'm waiting at 36.57 GDX...will add there if the wedge decides on "nasty break lower b4 higher"... may not get the fill...didnt get yesterdays limit order to buy either

109
bulkl wedges have a nasty habit of panic down then hard up to complete the pattern, followed by change to uptrend then higher

109
gdx 15min has bull falling wedge developing in it..aka waning lessening downside momentum

107
 this close to panic level of 938, tza might decide for one final push down to 938ish, 948 low
y: either way is ok, still see higher tza for swings, whatever it does now

1238
ES trying for 1552 prior hi test

1235
3660 gdx would be a gift imo, if it came today that low

1225
but MM continue selling into russel, even if goes higher b4 lower in russel

1225
938/940 is still"panic buy" level for tza if it decides to go for that instead

1222
upside limited to 3780ish ...likely stall there, then higher

1222
nugt GDX trying to paint bull reversal candle now intraday..watching

1211
MM continue gentle selling in russle

1205
4pm swing sys: about 50% of conditions are lining up to signal an "exit short and reverse long" postiton...BUT 50% is also the point where the "down" can come b4 "up".... hopefully spx will move lower not just sideways, as sideways too long will likely trigger an exit short reverse long....tho it STILL suggests downside, was only yest that signal rang exit long


1159
vxx 2150 and 2200 trgts, higher for swings

1156
uvxy should follow

1156
tza reacting now to the 72% signal

1153
heres the 3min pb in gdx now, still forming but may be done soon, for step 2, mentioned step 1 b4...becoming buyable on 3min charts

1148
3min warning,,,russel and es

1147
short 72% ES rang, after the russel rang b4,,just now at 1546

1142
we have a 72% short rtang in the russel, not es, at tza 958 now
expecting higher tza, 982ish trgt still


1138
4pm swing system v2 for long upro...gave an exit signal yest to take profits on upro long swing...v1 exited earlier and went short.... v2 of the system is "long only,never short"

1135
look at UUP  DX 3min..... gdx silver nugt may all bounce soon

1134
1545.25 es will give 72%

1132
70% short ES just rang, 72 or 74% is better tho..not there yet, at es 1546.50

1125
NOW the MM are putting lil pressure on,,,AFTER retail...just dropped the ask the MM

1121
LOL crazy...this is NOT the MM selling rite now,, could drift higher...this is retail or daytraders selling atm...

1118
if MM were not selling today i would have waited on uvxy...will let it bake a lil now and see

1110
bought UVXY  in vse port
bought at 8.26, watching uvxy now


1106
watching the dollar dx uup: nugt will benefit from pb in dollar

1103
if u look closely on a 3min chart, u can see the gentle selling of MM in those lil red candles
they can do this for hours tho LOL...but for swings its bearish

1055
MM now gently selling in the russel again...will see if it continues or not

1054
and its not goot that its not drifting up rite now..they r giving it room
these guys can be nasty...they will sell if it doesnt go up, to frustrate

1051
if they dont buy, then MM will step in, lower the ask , and sell...but they r trying to get the higher price atm

1050
MM testing daytraders retail shorts here: will retail to buy here and MM sell high of day?

1046
the MM are only gently selling so could go higher as they sell a lil, raise ask, sell more....but this is how the MM stab retail: putting their sell levels right between horizontal "easy to see" levels in ES

1044
thus far...see the stall at 1547 ES here? its righ between high and low, MM gently selling it here....may raise the ask

1042
MM sell level 1547.50 ES, below highs

1035
70% long scalp rang gdx nugt at 538 nugt

1033
today's MM sell level in TZA is very close to yesterdays Inv Bank Sell Level on tza (aka buy levels in russel)...this is very common phenomena

1029
15min chart DX: simple setup: short the second high...watching if the dx drops here, and gives some relief to gdx for higher nugt

1025
spx spy es iwm russel imo...important thing is that the MM are selling it, dropped the ask vs dropped the bid...thats bearish for swings

1019
GDX calls at .55 / .57 cents...just watching to see how they move, not trading them
striek 37.00

1017
MM allowing pop to 1546 ES now...wont type all the details,,,in general MM are gently selling
sell some, raise the ask, sell some more

1016
still holding it...is why we see this lil red candle on 3min es

1014
watching 1545.50...MM waiting there atm to sell

1013
y: MM are now SELLING the russel "down here"...: trying to push tza up to 980

1010
2200 vxx trgt for vxx and uvxy

1009
still have uvxy scalp from yest 2000 shares,,,,no exit yet

1006
NUGT scalp now at 1% gain since entry few min ago :) ...holding longer for trgt

1005
Inv bank sell gdx 38.50, MM sell 3780ish

1004
GDX may see 3725 lower b4 the 3780 higher trgt,for nugt

959
562 frist nugt trgt fro 546 buy

958
NUGT is at support, MM buying, so trying it here...active trade only

954
MM are now ABOVE todays high...sell level..this chop could continue with a move in tza down to 951/947ish...if so i may buy 2000 or 3000 shares uvxy...waiting


952
MM have now raised the ask above todays high...may give a short opp...but they sold this

950
GDX hit near 3740 prior support... 3700 and 3675 approx lower supports if that one breaks...still see opps long in nugt gdx but scaling in a little at a time, the prior downtrend in daily was viscous, takes a few tries

948
WOW....not saying this will continues, but this is MM selling here. this is first time in at least 3 days the MM have been selling (lowering ASK, not just dropping bid)....they want tza up to 982 which is v close to yesterdays Inv Bank 985 trgt, last tza 969...tho stall likely when es hits the 1542ish supp

921
UVXY holders: if that ES scenario above comes, UVXY could move a lot,,, 5-10%... IF lol

941
choppy here on ES and UVXY this open today

930
NUGT GDX still buyable now at open, i'm not adding since added yest

Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:

http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tues thoughts

353
rarely does it make it thru the Invesment Bank level on the first try, so for now thats swing trgt... 3850--3900

of course it may change tomorrow

352
GDX MM levels the same:  3775/3823
GDX investment bank level: sell 38.65

350
969 "old" level usually sticks on first try after changing by MM, so 969 more reasonable


349
MM now cleared tza for up 975..may not see today...but again dropped the russel bid...may just be a retail test

Poss gap up in GDX tomorrow, nugt
compare gdx feb 21-26 candles ddaily

339
doesnt "look" like it as ES moving up on 3min chart, but thats data atm

339
*** MM dropped the bid ....allows 969 tza test, then high of day test, may not all come today

330
needs 1545 es lower to confirm it

330
3min stochastic dbl top on ES at 1456.50

326
everything still same info trgts,,,tza uvxy nugt gdx

308
ES 3min chart: bear flag

255
bought 1000 more shares uvxy, avg up not down

247
8.56 uvxy buyable again swing or poss scalp either,here,,tho could go lower ...i'll wait to add since its above my entry...may add more later in vse port

239
tza level MM just so happens to be near fridays high in TZA

238
*****************978 TZA now cleared for:  MM just dropped bids more...watrhinc if they keep it here....

233
985 TZA more impt reaction than this 970 level imo,,,if it can get 985 trgt
Invesment banks waiting to buy Russel or sell tza near 985.....question is what will reactino be? how much buying russel / selling tza? will watch reaction if it gets there (wont know answer today)

221232
btw,,,MM are NOT selling here,,,just dropping bid...much diff dropping bid vs drop ask hard sell...much less bearish MM action here but drift lower still


TZA cleared by MM for test of its High of day

220
22.29 vxx friday 10am high is next trgt on vxx after 2190...watching

215
not sure if it will get it, but one more 15min candle could put it at trgt
: stall here natural at previous trgt

certainly nothing wrong with taking half or all of uvxy off here for 4% profit, in 2 hours but holding uvxy in the vse ports for now, scaling out in personal accts

213
20 cent from trgt on vxx :)

210
MM in ES looking like they r going to try for 2 point pierce under todays low and tst reaction to that

208
tza still same stretch trgt as hours ago....985ish

207
this type of MM can produce wild swings tho, including poss pop higher, but bearish intraday atm

207
Market Makers in ES and Russel: in "crash protection" mode: they are dropping the bid but slowly and keeping it near curr price....but for scalps this is fine....wont see huge move in ES or Russel UNLESS the MM drop the bid more, OR start dropping the ASK...which they are not doing now...they r not really selling into this, more trading mode

205
DX looks headed to 8280 then 8270 imo, today,,,8285 last

202
uup dx us dollar starting to get some lil volume red bars here,,,may see oil nugt silver higher soon

158
UVXY at 2.5% gain from entry hour or so ago

158
if have many shares uvxy, could take 25-50% off here for quick gain from re-entry earlier today...vse port i'm holding it all for now

157
rejectede exactly at 967 target but still looks breakable higher...pb normal at trgt

155
.theres 967 tza test posted b3 :)

150
904ish still UVXY trgt, vxx noon candle 21.90 high friday

148
TZA dbl bottomed on its 3min chart while UVXY stronger and made higher low: bullish for both of them

142
still will take .75 gdx if that order fills

142
mkt orders here could work nugt gdx,,,lil premium paid,,,i'm not adding cuz bought b4
GDX acting like this, with UUP "up here" in 3min charts...when uup goes down should propel gdx uup...gdx "should be lower" here, bullish that its not


141
GDX hit .91, near the .93 trigger...watching reactions here.....

140
tza should probe 15min resist 1 cent over R ...test lil move to 967

139
ES 3min forming a lil shoot star...MM

131
bought uvxy
 nothing drastic but small drop in the MM bid...only 1000 shares..may add...

126
GDX NUGT actually holding up better than expected here given us dollar action....still see higher nugt

125
MM bought 1545.....fluc 1544 1545 ES>..still wat5ching

123
MM at es 1544 ....

120
IF the MM drop bids in russel or ES, and i have enought time, will buy 1000 shares UVXY on such event...

less shares this time, allows scalp swing or position building

115
MM temporarily at 1545 es right now...why post below..can see it was bought...i think they may drop the bid but its there now atm

113
if below 1544.75 ES>..watch out below

105
UUP  DX: 3min warning

104
getting close to setupson ES scalp short, uvxy 8.45 long, could work here but im waiting since already have some

100
bear HS on 15min spy chart? me thinks so

1258
rule says respect support until breaks, but its 1pm...could break first try

12541257
DX now approaching supp test on 15min chart which is above low of day....it looks breakable here for a run at the lows,,,same as prev post on UUP DX


GDX 3793 would give 74% i think lol

1254
72% rang long on NUGT just now, 564, and 74% will ring on a break over its 3min resist

1243
us dollar UUP "should" test its daily lows,,,and poss break lower
if it does, should send nugt higher...this would setup either a dbl bottom or "buy sexond lower low" pattern strat, tho i'm not buying uup if it sets up, rather using NUGT as an inverse proxy for it

1237
DOWN gdx  headfake to 3775 gdx, then a hold, and reversal would fit the pattern

1236
********* Market Makers just raised the bids in GDX...and also raised the ask over todays highs.... will need to watch if it sustatins but thats a v bullish action

1220
if nugt can get up to 570, then likely to go over 570 toward daily high and poss higher than that today

1220
its not perfect setup but among other things gdx has "buy the second low" on 3min chart, and a bull flag, and i think dollwar may drop...hence the stab in nugt here....leaving room to add more shares, bought 2000,,,may or may not hold overnight depending on it it moves

1218
LONG in NUGT again...higher risk,scalp

1212
if spx gets tired i'll try uvxy again,,,want to see it tired on the 15min chart

1211
UVXY is at its 840 buy back target, but its so choppy i'm waiting,,,might miss the trade but waiting...

1158
here is uvxy at 845ish trgt...but waiting on it...this is what i meant a few minutes ago about its habit of "nasty reversals right at targets"...uvxy tends to hit its trgts v nice, but then wildness

1154
vxx uvxy--- i'm particularly interested in uvxy again because the trgt just got reviesd higher
Market Makers and INV banks have raised their sell levels in VXX
no re-entry yet tho uvxy

11341150
2215 revised trgt over 2180 trgt on vxx, so may see that area today


UVXY could drop to 840 and still be "bullish"

1133
plan for this was more shares, less percent, scalp
plan for other half: active trade half of remaing 4000 shares, and passive swing other half (2000 + 2000)

1130
in past 4 days, uvxy has had a habit of nasty fast reversals right near its targets, so i wanted out of half,,,tho may go higher

1120
 exited 2000 shares tza scalp
tza should go higher but it was a scalp and is at resist, and have many other positions, including UVXY that is "tza-like"
keeping 1000 shares swing tza

11071109
904 my trgt 2 approx....i think that would be vxx 2180ish...eyeball approx only on uvxy


vxx uvsy---it it drifted up here, i would exit it,,,but came a bit fast so seeing if it can make t2

1106
t2: seeing if vxx can hit 2180 now...hit trgt 1 while i was typing

1105
if it gets there....i might take off half of uvxy at 870ish...take off 4000 shares, keep 4000

1103
could put uvxy at trgt1....uvxy already made a higher hi intraday ahead of tza

1102
tza should test 964...see what it does in uvxy

1047
2140 vxx is my trgt 1 on uvxy, 2111 last

1044
985 stretch trgt tza today

1042
look at DX and UUP 3min....thats why GDX NUGT OIL down atm

1036
UVXY is testing its highs befor tza...bullish for both uvxy and tza

1036
1 min later...theres 960 tza as expected...watching reaction

1035
tza ashould test 960, should push up uvxy a bit more, then stall,intraday

1027
TZA 940/930 remains "panic buy level lower" for today, similar to yest

1026
us dollar UUP looks like it wants 2241 lower, last 2248

1018
bought tza...2000 shares...bought at test of prior low 955 tza
scalp/swing combo on tza but if one doesnt have lots of other positinos, valid for swing entry here imo, 1000 shares instead, to add to existing 1000 shares,,,or 2000 total shares swing


1011
i "think" GDX will stall at 3800ish..why i took quick gain and will try to buy back again, if not then just keep 2000 shares.. the pb in GDX could be "big" intraday, so might make sense to put stops on nugt gdx for "active trading" part...my swing stops remain loose since i already exited scalp

1008
i'll be looking at oil gold silver gdx nugt uco uslv today for possible new buys

1006
from yest purchase: took 7% gain on nugt, sold 3000 shares, keeping 2000 shares

946
GDX approaching 3800 trgt, 3780 resist below the trgt...watching here...
GDX: MM sell level: 3782/    Inv Bank Sell Level 38.60, so may overshoot or attain the 3800

941
wouldve been nice to have kept the UCO instead of selling it yest....but i guess "trading uco in for nugt" worked ok since nugt is outperforming uco

930
nice 5% gap up in NUGT today, after yesterdays scalp purchase. will be looking to take profit on scalp 3000 shares and hold 1000 but no exit yet

Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:

http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday thoughts

357
WOW real low volume in spy today...see that?

348
vse port sold 1500 shares UCO,,,,the port "looks" only half full, but there are some very volatile stocks in it, like UVXY and NUGT,,,and UCO itself can be volatile,,,so sticking with approx 50% in cash atm....room to add another day

345
might consider selling some not all UVXY 860-870 if hit today,

341
UVXY may see 865 before 4pm today

336
EXITED oil swing UCO small 1% profit...still see higher oil but it was wild ride, and thing NUGT will outperform, so to reduce risk i'm out of oil for now even tho i see higher oil

its not a great profit in oil, but it was also underwater for a bit, so this is a "gift" to exit here after a premature entry, also mostly its just that i've added other positions today and dont want to carry all that risk ...so reduced exposure by oil exit


326
GDX 38.00 is investment bank sell level...likely stall there on pop higher, then move down but to a higher low, then over 3800 (swing not today_).. so it will take gdx some time, actively trading it meanwhile

325
sitting at 3695 buy atm, GDX

325
but MM now gently biuying the GDX as they lowered that ask...looks like an accum attempt, bullish for gdx if so

323
LOL they r back: MM ask now 3710 gdx

317
************** MM have raised ASK in the gdx,,,,wqatching to see if it sustains or not, if so then higher gdx today...wathcing, giving 3728 a chance

311
DX might be forming bullish dbl bot W on 3min chart, but 15min still bearish, not sure they will make the W...watching but imo still lower dollar and higher nugt

304
MM sell level GDX at 3715...wont go higher gdx nugt until they raise it...watching
Investment Bank trgt: 38.00 GDX swing 1

251
us dollar DX UUP continues bearish consolod near lows, 3min and 15min charts

246
aapl: one of the remaing stocks they can use to hold the NQ SPX from crash, since AAPL daily chart is depressed compared to SPX

AAPL has a heavy weighting in the Q's

240
3min oil: bull flag

238
DX:aka poss wedge

238
dollar 3min rejected on weak bounce near its low....continues breakable lower chance imo

226
oil is now near its 3 day high resist, and is at trgt,,,but holding the oil swing for now in vse ports

225
in hindsight move UCO oil instead of more NUGT would have been the better "dollar trade"....still have both, watching dollar here, nugt may catch up, it moves fast

221
vxx swing 24 and 30 targets in time, last 2079

221
UVXY belongs at 850 here, not 818....it should recover swings

218
**************** heres the US dollar at important test, now....
: looks breakable lower still ,,,for higher nugt oil

215
feb 25 high on daily is target for CL oil UCO USO approx

213
15min chart...there goes oil UCO,,, NUGT may follow...

206
if I didnt have UVXY swing, i'd add tza 9.40 if it hit there,,may not make it but thats panic target for today in tza

200
watching 82.58 DX dollar for break lower..

156
NUGT / dollar DX trade is working so far...watchnig carefully

152
548 trgt 1 nugt

152
for scalp, not sure, but NUGT is "capable" of a big move today, no guar but setup is there

144
DX us dollar has retraced half of its big red candle on 15min chart (approx eyeball only not measured).....of it turns lower again, may want 8268 higher then lower

139
may get pullback here in IWM now, purely technical, prior high test...its the sustainable reaction up or down thats more impt tho

russel tna tza


132
82.50 break lower in DX us dollar would be significant, since 8250 is prior multiday high, and could send dollar back to 82.00ish

if 8160 were to break,not today, dollar DX could fall hard then and propel gdx nugt oil silver up a lot

128
oil gdx nugt mignt get some action as a result

128
DX us dollar just tested 8266 trgt from 11:12 am, and it looks breakable lower on this test for more down in dollard

114
UVXY is getting whacked but thats normal, i'm not interested in selling it anywhere near here, but also not looking like VXX CALLS or VIX calls OPTIONS are worth it either, to me, for now

1234
tza approaching its 962 test area posted b4

1224
ES remains at 72% short signal

1205
that could put uvxy at 860 from 844 last

1205
tza should test 962---watching reaction if it gets there, 956 last

1200
Idea: if ES hits 1543.50 before 1547.75, short ES on the hit of 1543.50

1152
VXX May 18 2013 22 Call at $2.06 right now

1147
IF the VXX does not bounce today, i may consider buying options calls in VXX...no entry yet, rarely do i buy options, but no bounce in VXX may present opp to buy some calls

1143
72% short ES rang at 1546 tho its so close to prio 1547.75 hi

1112
 DX support 1 broke, should go down to 8266 next
15min chart looked breakable and broke, so trgt next supp level

11011104
notice that IWM russel is wearker than SPY sp500 today


Inv Banks want to sell TZA at 995 not 970, so should get up there eventually
tho active and smaller MM holding it near 965/970 for now

1100
this 3min red candle on tza is expected, result of MM holding bid...tho tza could drift up to 970 since thats another resist area

1056
russel near its lows, now,,,,MM bid to buy it here but may drop bid...wathcing, for now, they r holding it

1053UVXY avail at better price here but i'm not adding, is valid for first entry in scalp but not to add to it

1050
on 3min chart, oil...looking for CL to go to 9125 up a lil, then stall lower, next move lower after that lil test may present buying opp long in USO CL UCO

1038
US dollar probibg its 15min support here DX

1037
UVXY not behaving LOL...it "should be at 879 not 872 rite now...arbitrage opp?

1035
USO 3min chart is setting up that simple strat: "buy second low"...BUT its not really at support so could go lower first

1025
USO oil may want 3260 lower, may be buyable long there


1024
see it? also notice that 1541 ES pre-market low...wont show up in SPY...may test that low in ES


1020
btw, this time i have 2000 shares UVXY in both large and small ports on vse...just wont be able to add more to small port but same initial shares

1020
MM still have bid near todays lows on russel so that "part" has not kicked in, early entry uvxy

1015
us dollar DX 15min chart looks like poss pb, one reason for entry in uvxy. also daily on spy russel is extended as mentioned b4

1015
930 trgt 1 on UVXY, may actively trade in out up to that trtgt

1014
bought UVXY

1010
looking at poss UVXY scalp, will be 2,000 shares in vse.marketwatch.com port if i do it..no entry yet

1004
not sure "when" but i expect another big huge green candle on daily UVXY

1003
Russel is at an extreme, too far from its 5 MA daily, one reason why i'm trading UVXY instead.
i dont always trade vxx UVXY long or short, but i do like trading it when russel sp500 qqq at extremes. thats when the VIX makes larger moves

956
MM waiting at low of day to buyy, wont see any big move lower unless they drop bid

944
looking at poss oil scalp today CL USO UCO, still have swing in UCO

Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:

http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".