Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Wedn thoughts





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331
3min ES poss bearish candle pattern near the close here...big red candle followed by lotsa small ones...watching


308
2150 would do it for me on vxx, for uvxy

308
UVXY scalp might take off 3000 shares today if moves more up, holding rest swing

259
ES 1550 MM sell level atm

255
look at TLT since noon...interesting,,,that setup is potentially bearish for spx swings

253
Today is first day i've seen MM selling with an ask near price...they were even selling near the lows, usually means lower lows for swings...but in meantime anything can happn

234
its not "normal" for Inv Bank to buy at a higher price than MM, but it does happen often enough

233
hmm Market Maker buy level is now BELOW the Inv Bank buy level...so downside a bit more limited now, looks like Inv Banks still have some selling to do and will be in crash protect mode...translates to TZA up to 974 instead of 982, then tza pb, then a move over 982 toward 1025...but apparantely Inv Banks have more distribution first

229
MM sitting juyst below days highs atm

158
3657 gdx coming? still have order to buy there

156
vse port been chopping around 29--34% roi....expecting a move up to 45%ish soon when curr new positions kick in

136
or 3657 lower,,whatever comes first lol

136
3740 or 3780 approx gdx trgts for scalp part of gdx nugt bought today...swing trgt higher of course

115
i think down is coming ,,within days, spx

110
yea...i'm waiting at 36.57 GDX...will add there if the wedge decides on "nasty break lower b4 higher"... may not get the fill...didnt get yesterdays limit order to buy either

109
bulkl wedges have a nasty habit of panic down then hard up to complete the pattern, followed by change to uptrend then higher

109
gdx 15min has bull falling wedge developing in it..aka waning lessening downside momentum

107
 this close to panic level of 938, tza might decide for one final push down to 938ish, 948 low
y: either way is ok, still see higher tza for swings, whatever it does now

1238
ES trying for 1552 prior hi test

1235
3660 gdx would be a gift imo, if it came today that low

1225
but MM continue selling into russel, even if goes higher b4 lower in russel

1225
938/940 is still"panic buy" level for tza if it decides to go for that instead

1222
upside limited to 3780ish ...likely stall there, then higher

1222
nugt GDX trying to paint bull reversal candle now intraday..watching

1211
MM continue gentle selling in russle

1205
4pm swing sys: about 50% of conditions are lining up to signal an "exit short and reverse long" postiton...BUT 50% is also the point where the "down" can come b4 "up".... hopefully spx will move lower not just sideways, as sideways too long will likely trigger an exit short reverse long....tho it STILL suggests downside, was only yest that signal rang exit long


1159
vxx 2150 and 2200 trgts, higher for swings

1156
uvxy should follow

1156
tza reacting now to the 72% signal

1153
heres the 3min pb in gdx now, still forming but may be done soon, for step 2, mentioned step 1 b4...becoming buyable on 3min charts

1148
3min warning,,,russel and es

1147
short 72% ES rang, after the russel rang b4,,just now at 1546

1142
we have a 72% short rtang in the russel, not es, at tza 958 now
expecting higher tza, 982ish trgt still


1138
4pm swing system v2 for long upro...gave an exit signal yest to take profits on upro long swing...v1 exited earlier and went short.... v2 of the system is "long only,never short"

1135
look at UUP  DX 3min..... gdx silver nugt may all bounce soon

1134
1545.25 es will give 72%

1132
70% short ES just rang, 72 or 74% is better tho..not there yet, at es 1546.50

1125
NOW the MM are putting lil pressure on,,,AFTER retail...just dropped the ask the MM

1121
LOL crazy...this is NOT the MM selling rite now,, could drift higher...this is retail or daytraders selling atm...

1118
if MM were not selling today i would have waited on uvxy...will let it bake a lil now and see

1110
bought UVXY  in vse port
bought at 8.26, watching uvxy now


1106
watching the dollar dx uup: nugt will benefit from pb in dollar

1103
if u look closely on a 3min chart, u can see the gentle selling of MM in those lil red candles
they can do this for hours tho LOL...but for swings its bearish

1055
MM now gently selling in the russel again...will see if it continues or not

1054
and its not goot that its not drifting up rite now..they r giving it room
these guys can be nasty...they will sell if it doesnt go up, to frustrate

1051
if they dont buy, then MM will step in, lower the ask , and sell...but they r trying to get the higher price atm

1050
MM testing daytraders retail shorts here: will retail to buy here and MM sell high of day?

1046
the MM are only gently selling so could go higher as they sell a lil, raise ask, sell more....but this is how the MM stab retail: putting their sell levels right between horizontal "easy to see" levels in ES

1044
thus far...see the stall at 1547 ES here? its righ between high and low, MM gently selling it here....may raise the ask

1042
MM sell level 1547.50 ES, below highs

1035
70% long scalp rang gdx nugt at 538 nugt

1033
today's MM sell level in TZA is very close to yesterdays Inv Bank Sell Level on tza (aka buy levels in russel)...this is very common phenomena

1029
15min chart DX: simple setup: short the second high...watching if the dx drops here, and gives some relief to gdx for higher nugt

1025
spx spy es iwm russel imo...important thing is that the MM are selling it, dropped the ask vs dropped the bid...thats bearish for swings

1019
GDX calls at .55 / .57 cents...just watching to see how they move, not trading them
striek 37.00

1017
MM allowing pop to 1546 ES now...wont type all the details,,,in general MM are gently selling
sell some, raise the ask, sell some more

1016
still holding it...is why we see this lil red candle on 3min es

1014
watching 1545.50...MM waiting there atm to sell

1013
y: MM are now SELLING the russel "down here"...: trying to push tza up to 980

1010
2200 vxx trgt for vxx and uvxy

1009
still have uvxy scalp from yest 2000 shares,,,,no exit yet

1006
NUGT scalp now at 1% gain since entry few min ago :) ...holding longer for trgt

1005
Inv bank sell gdx 38.50, MM sell 3780ish

1004
GDX may see 3725 lower b4 the 3780 higher trgt,for nugt

959
562 frist nugt trgt fro 546 buy

958
NUGT is at support, MM buying, so trying it here...active trade only

954
MM are now ABOVE todays high...sell level..this chop could continue with a move in tza down to 951/947ish...if so i may buy 2000 or 3000 shares uvxy...waiting


952
MM have now raised the ask above todays high...may give a short opp...but they sold this

950
GDX hit near 3740 prior support... 3700 and 3675 approx lower supports if that one breaks...still see opps long in nugt gdx but scaling in a little at a time, the prior downtrend in daily was viscous, takes a few tries

948
WOW....not saying this will continues, but this is MM selling here. this is first time in at least 3 days the MM have been selling (lowering ASK, not just dropping bid)....they want tza up to 982 which is v close to yesterdays Inv Bank 985 trgt, last tza 969...tho stall likely when es hits the 1542ish supp

921
UVXY holders: if that ES scenario above comes, UVXY could move a lot,,, 5-10%... IF lol

941
choppy here on ES and UVXY this open today

930
NUGT GDX still buyable now at open, i'm not adding since added yest


Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 


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* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

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