Monday, March 18, 2013

Monday thoughts

355
UVXY up 11-12% today

348
*** VSE port i exited UVXY swing, took profit...explain why later even tho think higher uvxy....holding vxx still tho

344
bought 5.46 nugt, sold 5.48 nugt for scalp piece,, exited to reduce # of shares in position, still have 3000 shares nugt swing left in vse port

340
EXITED nugt scalp, holding the swing on nugt, few cents profit/breakeven on nugt scalp part...just dont want to hold this much overnite...risk in US dollar

338
heres tza at 942/943 prev post trt,,,if this clears then 949/954 next but stall here would make sense

336
UVXY scalp was only 3%ish gain but it was also down 2-3% today red and i did not avg down on it...watned to reduce # of shares holding overnigth

vse port still has 5-6,000 shares uvxy for swing

330
** took profit on scalp uvxy, holding swing uvxy...still see higher but wanted the scalp piece out

317
notice this time...how uvxy caught up to tza as posted below? now its where its supposed to be

317
trying again: TZA testd 9.36 trgt .. 9.43 and 9.49 next trgt

303
uvxy should be at 843 not 828 here...will it pop up?

301
TZA testd 9.36 trgt poste b4 .. 9.43 and 9.49 next trgt

250
if SLV can get 28.16 it may move up nice, below 27.70 could go to 2730 even lower

236
tza may test 936/940 today higher

226
GDX still has resist at 37.50 so may not move much, but if that breaks it could move today. else will hold overnite nugt

225
bought nugt. dx. MM.

224
i might buy nugt earlier, at a higher price, waiting but may buy in next 1-60 min

218
15min charts triple bearish volume diverg on ES forming: 3 higher highs, lower vol each time...of course could go higher, and time of day affects it

203
us dollar chart 15min needs another 2-3 candles on it b4 it gets tired, mayb more, another reason i lowered buy price in nugt..

201
1549.50 ES R helod,,now watching if 1548 supp breaks...all micro intraday levels but

153
.. imo that was a "warning shot" in ES lows last night to long swings...chance to get out...maybe make new highs in SPX but imo,,,safer to follow the warning shot and take the gift of this bounce

4pm swing system is still on "remain short spx" for move below 1530 ES

147
if AAPL does get its 460 trgt...SPX QQQ may start to struggle since AAPL will be at resist....

146
R held on first test ES...

143
imot resist test here ES 1549.50.... 15tza 933...watching if mini R 1549.50 will hold

140
MM buy level 1 on GDX at 3740...atm my nugt order is set lower than MM as thjey appear to be layering

136
small raise in the bid on TZA about 2 cents away

136
ES  IWM moving a lil down here but nothing to get excited about,,,yet..... near support and MM are on sidelines waiting not particip much

132
usually if it comes that close and does not fill like that, it will go lower if it revisits the area

132
CHANGED nugt...will buy at 5.38 now not 5.43...may change again later

127
LOL nugt valid here too at 5.44,,,but have other stuff and dont want to change order

124
may see 5.38,,,should get filled .43

121
if nugt gets 5.43 soon i'll buy it, last 5.47, buy 1 of poss 4, for scalp

118
15min gdx chart today: i like the big green candles and small red candles, usually resolves bullishly after the red is done

116
nugt GDX is getting close to a scalp opp on 3min chart,with 15min, still forming imo

1224
34.25 poss short area in oil USO swing, not there yet and idk if setup will form but watching, poss SCO

1148
MM are in do-nothing mode right now, THAT does not usually last long...they r far frrom both bid and ask,,,after a lil algo battle (or BAD DATA not sure which)...

1129
ES 15min chart setting up the "short second higher hi"...still under constructions...in this case might be dbl top vs higher hi, why i tried half a bit early

1124
*** MM just dropped IWM bids to just over low of day...watching if anything happns

1121
if ES and IWM were at support intraday right now i'd take a quick scalp gain on the uvxy about 1%ish...but they r at resist so giving it some room in muvxy

1120
tza may test 941 wiuthin next few candles

1111
testing resist now on 15min chart...watching reaction


1110
MM have now raised ask..into the gap fill slighlty above..they r moving it around quite a bit

1108
UVXY creeping a lil higher ahead of tza, not myuch but creeping...potentially bullish for both tza and uvxy, bear spy

1101
MM sitting pennies awayy from ask now...if they dont raise ask, IWM will drop more...watching


1100
: MM selling at mkt price now...iwm
this candle is MM selling on 3min chart, not retail

1046
72% short ES just rang, scalp alert, 1545.50

1034
added more uvxy, near same price, to have more shares, not cost avg up or down, scalp..buy 2 of poss 4

1022
Russel cleared by MM to test todays lows... may take seom time,,,watching what they do with the BID and ASK levels

1014
long uvxy 8.43, scalp....keeping swing uvxy still in other account,,,may add more scalp uvxy later

1009
might see some sideways here if MM want to "distribute", poss bearish consolodiation sideways or flag higher, and lower later


1008
MM just dropped the ask...lsat 3min bar is MM selling


1006
buy level is close here at 9400 but i wouldnt read too much into it atm....need to let things settle down here

1005
fwiw Market Maker Sell levels curr at IWM 94.30 and 94.70,,,but they may change those later, especially since its still early in day and a huge overnight move in ES futures

953
VSE.marketwatch.com Stock contested started Jan 2 with 158 players. i joined the contest late (March 14), don't expect to "win" but good practice... my ranking is in Top 20 at the moment after joining 2+ months late. 


946
OIL CL futures and UCO hit their long targets this morn....poss will have a setup to reverse to short, but i'm on sidelines for now in oil

942
amazingly but not surprisingly AAPL is UP today... I did talk about how AAPL could go higher while market moved lower. AAPL up 0.7% vs SPY down 0.8%

934
we dont always know "why" Market Makers and Investment Banks are taking certain actions of buying or selling, but their intent is revealed ahead of time by their actions

928
i'm sure most of you know, but for this without futures quotes, the ES overnight low of 1529.50 was much lowere than here, last es 1538.50.

Pullbacks, move lower in ES, This is what happens when Market Makers and Investment Banks are selling intraday for 2 days, although the reaction sometimes takes more than 2 day, regardless of Cypress events. Cypress may have magnified it, but ES would have dropped anyway. Perhaps the MM knew about Cypress ahead of time.



Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 


For details on the portfolio see this posting:

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

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