Monday, March 11, 2013

Monday thoughts

357
WOW real low volume in spy today...see that?

348
vse port sold 1500 shares UCO,,,,the port "looks" only half full, but there are some very volatile stocks in it, like UVXY and NUGT,,,and UCO itself can be volatile,,,so sticking with approx 50% in cash atm....room to add another day

345
might consider selling some not all UVXY 860-870 if hit today,

341
UVXY may see 865 before 4pm today

336
EXITED oil swing UCO small 1% profit...still see higher oil but it was wild ride, and thing NUGT will outperform, so to reduce risk i'm out of oil for now even tho i see higher oil

its not a great profit in oil, but it was also underwater for a bit, so this is a "gift" to exit here after a premature entry, also mostly its just that i've added other positions today and dont want to carry all that risk ...so reduced exposure by oil exit


326
GDX 38.00 is investment bank sell level...likely stall there on pop higher, then move down but to a higher low, then over 3800 (swing not today_).. so it will take gdx some time, actively trading it meanwhile

325
sitting at 3695 buy atm, GDX

325
but MM now gently biuying the GDX as they lowered that ask...looks like an accum attempt, bullish for gdx if so

323
LOL they r back: MM ask now 3710 gdx

317
************** MM have raised ASK in the gdx,,,,wqatching to see if it sustains or not, if so then higher gdx today...wathcing, giving 3728 a chance

311
DX might be forming bullish dbl bot W on 3min chart, but 15min still bearish, not sure they will make the W...watching but imo still lower dollar and higher nugt

304
MM sell level GDX at 3715...wont go higher gdx nugt until they raise it...watching
Investment Bank trgt: 38.00 GDX swing 1

251
us dollar DX UUP continues bearish consolod near lows, 3min and 15min charts

246
aapl: one of the remaing stocks they can use to hold the NQ SPX from crash, since AAPL daily chart is depressed compared to SPX

AAPL has a heavy weighting in the Q's

240
3min oil: bull flag

238
DX:aka poss wedge

238
dollar 3min rejected on weak bounce near its low....continues breakable lower chance imo

226
oil is now near its 3 day high resist, and is at trgt,,,but holding the oil swing for now in vse ports

225
in hindsight move UCO oil instead of more NUGT would have been the better "dollar trade"....still have both, watching dollar here, nugt may catch up, it moves fast

221
vxx swing 24 and 30 targets in time, last 2079

221
UVXY belongs at 850 here, not 818....it should recover swings

218
**************** heres the US dollar at important test, now....
: looks breakable lower still ,,,for higher nugt oil

215
feb 25 high on daily is target for CL oil UCO USO approx

213
15min chart...there goes oil UCO,,, NUGT may follow...

206
if I didnt have UVXY swing, i'd add tza 9.40 if it hit there,,may not make it but thats panic target for today in tza

200
watching 82.58 DX dollar for break lower..

156
NUGT / dollar DX trade is working so far...watchnig carefully

152
548 trgt 1 nugt

152
for scalp, not sure, but NUGT is "capable" of a big move today, no guar but setup is there

144
DX us dollar has retraced half of its big red candle on 15min chart (approx eyeball only not measured).....of it turns lower again, may want 8268 higher then lower

139
may get pullback here in IWM now, purely technical, prior high test...its the sustainable reaction up or down thats more impt tho

russel tna tza


132
82.50 break lower in DX us dollar would be significant, since 8250 is prior multiday high, and could send dollar back to 82.00ish

if 8160 were to break,not today, dollar DX could fall hard then and propel gdx nugt oil silver up a lot

128
oil gdx nugt mignt get some action as a result

128
DX us dollar just tested 8266 trgt from 11:12 am, and it looks breakable lower on this test for more down in dollard

114
UVXY is getting whacked but thats normal, i'm not interested in selling it anywhere near here, but also not looking like VXX CALLS or VIX calls OPTIONS are worth it either, to me, for now

1234
tza approaching its 962 test area posted b4

1224
ES remains at 72% short signal

1205
that could put uvxy at 860 from 844 last

1205
tza should test 962---watching reaction if it gets there, 956 last

1200
Idea: if ES hits 1543.50 before 1547.75, short ES on the hit of 1543.50

1152
VXX May 18 2013 22 Call at $2.06 right now

1147
IF the VXX does not bounce today, i may consider buying options calls in VXX...no entry yet, rarely do i buy options, but no bounce in VXX may present opp to buy some calls

1143
72% short ES rang at 1546 tho its so close to prio 1547.75 hi

1112
 DX support 1 broke, should go down to 8266 next
15min chart looked breakable and broke, so trgt next supp level

11011104
notice that IWM russel is wearker than SPY sp500 today


Inv Banks want to sell TZA at 995 not 970, so should get up there eventually
tho active and smaller MM holding it near 965/970 for now

1100
this 3min red candle on tza is expected, result of MM holding bid...tho tza could drift up to 970 since thats another resist area

1056
russel near its lows, now,,,,MM bid to buy it here but may drop bid...wathcing, for now, they r holding it

1053UVXY avail at better price here but i'm not adding, is valid for first entry in scalp but not to add to it

1050
on 3min chart, oil...looking for CL to go to 9125 up a lil, then stall lower, next move lower after that lil test may present buying opp long in USO CL UCO

1038
US dollar probibg its 15min support here DX

1037
UVXY not behaving LOL...it "should be at 879 not 872 rite now...arbitrage opp?

1035
USO 3min chart is setting up that simple strat: "buy second low"...BUT its not really at support so could go lower first

1025
USO oil may want 3260 lower, may be buyable long there


1024
see it? also notice that 1541 ES pre-market low...wont show up in SPY...may test that low in ES


1020
btw, this time i have 2000 shares UVXY in both large and small ports on vse...just wont be able to add more to small port but same initial shares

1020
MM still have bid near todays lows on russel so that "part" has not kicked in, early entry uvxy

1015
us dollar DX 15min chart looks like poss pb, one reason for entry in uvxy. also daily on spy russel is extended as mentioned b4

1015
930 trgt 1 on UVXY, may actively trade in out up to that trtgt

1014
bought UVXY

1010
looking at poss UVXY scalp, will be 2,000 shares in vse.marketwatch.com port if i do it..no entry yet

1004
not sure "when" but i expect another big huge green candle on daily UVXY

1003
Russel is at an extreme, too far from its 5 MA daily, one reason why i'm trading UVXY instead.
i dont always trade vxx UVXY long or short, but i do like trading it when russel sp500 qqq at extremes. thats when the VIX makes larger moves

956
MM waiting at low of day to buyy, wont see any big move lower unless they drop bid

944
looking at poss oil scalp today CL USO UCO, still have swing in UCO



Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 


For details on the portfolio see this posting:

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

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