Tues thoughts

400
CHTR closed 5764, over the 5750 trgt,,bullish for quickSwing on it

356
CHTR has broken over 5750--now if it can close over it, would be good for the new entry

343
looking for CHTR to hurdle 5750 for a trip back up to 59.00, swing

327
idea: perhaps AAPL chart will say short aapl, tomorrow not today

317
CHTR long 5734

305
A look at SPY instead of ES gives some interesting insight, imo weakening of the SPX by looking at SPY.
Jan 26 has a dark cloud cover candle pattern that was confirmed when spy closed under that days low. we have a gap higher today followed by lower. stoch now at 66. we have an apparent lower high and lower low (seen on the daily but really on the 60min to be "pure").  CONVERSELY it makes sense to watch out for a poss bull flag or bull coil to be forming on the SPY daily charts, too early to tell now if its beginning of lower highs and lower lows, or instead a flag (since both the bear and bull patterns start the same way)


300
i'm not sure if TLT wants to put in a lower high on the daily, so being conserv, in case it doesnt test prior signif hi of  121.64

300
TLT has another 1-2 days on its quickSwing signal so i'll buy back TMF or tlt lower if the charts look good on any pullback

259
at TLT 120.90 i've taken 10% profits in TMF (related to TLT) on all but 25% small remaining positino

210
theres .77,,,watching reactions up or down here on TLT

209
hit .76 and stalled,,,hmm

208
120.77 is updated # for TLT, up from .70,,,i.e. needs over .77 instead

159
BRB....tightening stops on TLT   TMF while gone, to protect 9%ish profit, can always buy back if stopped

157
TLT right now has 1-2 more days left on its "long TLT  TMF" quickSwing from few days ago,,,will likely take profit on half of it today, early, before signal expir

155
if TLT can hit 120.70, that would be minor new daily high over yest, and may trigger more up on TLT   TMF....tlt already has a minor break over yesterdays high, that would be #2

1246
1307 ES rejection thus far, still is resist #

1156
TLT has broken yesterdays high on the first try :) .... but to be fair its only a marginal break, watching to see if it sustains, and reactino here

1155
there goes EUO at 1992 from 1970 entry yest,,,still holding for higher

1150
i consider this as a test of yest hi on TLT,,,will it break higher on the first try? or pb to 119.80 first? TLT has the chart pattern capable of breaking higher on first try, with only small pb if any, but watching reactions,,,makes sense to take prfotis on half here if havent already,,,TMF at 9% profit from entry few days ago so nothing wrong with taking off half and buying back on pullback if one comes

1143
i would wait for the ES 3min to go higher, and then buy pb, instead of long here,,,keeping the shorts from 1316 with stops set as posted b4

1135
TLT is now just 20 cents from yesterdays high,,,still see a break higher over it

1124
HPQ huge red daily candle, tho THAT short is underwater atm

1117
es supp at 1300-1303 so may try bounce here, but may be small, watching

1117
watching 1307 Es,,,good spot for a stop on ES shorts scalps from 1316 and or 1310,, mental stop 1307ish to see reaction, hard stop 1310.75 could work

1114
CHRW moving nicely lower, may take 50-100 of shares off for profit on it today, still waiting for now, from entry 2 days ago

1103
with TLT moving higher,,,they may not let ES up for air today

1100
still trying to sell TMF at same trgt of 7175, last 6873 (also TLT)

1047
EUO just hit its first trgt of 1980,,watching to see if can break yest high

1045
there goes 1307 :) es

1020
or alt one could do EUO 1970 here,,,its resist is a bit higher and might make for an easier trade

1019
this is not the ES 3min bounce as it moves a lil to 1310, but v active traders could reshort if they covered half at 1307 trgt

1016
if es  1290 cracks i see 1270-75 next

1013
VXX or VXX calkls could work nicely ABOVE vxx 2750

1012
the first bounce on ES should be shortable, 3min charts, when it gets one

1010
bad housing # may present a nice entry long into PHM which i've been watching as posted before,,,no entry yet, i believe PHM will retest higher but not ready yet

1008
ES just hit its 1307 area trgt,,,watching reaction now,,,this is v impt support, imo

1005
looking for EUO to move up to 1980 for test,,,if it breaks it then EUO calls and underlying should hit their targts also,,1972 last

1004
TLT just hit the .61 trgt,,watching for follow thru higher now,,,expecting a high over yest hi on TLT

1003
saving half of the ES shorts, for poss nice drop if supp breaks...also TLT trying to go after .61 trgt for above mkt long trade idea

1003
1310.25 hit, considering 1310 trgt hit, half off for almost 6 points in 40 min

1002
1307--1310 support ES,,,if that break watch out below, imo

1000
1310 es is first trgt from 1316 short, for scalp,,,swings have lower trgts of course, near yest low, and lower

958
imo, lots of resist 1315--1318, until its broken imo its intraday resist

956
119.60 TLT above the mkt is a buy, imo, last 119.42,,tho i wont add since already have TLT  TMF from lower

953
1315  ES is now intraday resist

947
CHRW continues lower too as expected, it broke yest low after gap up this morn :)

946
some nice heavy selling on the ANN shorts,,,watching if it can break that daily support tho, continues to hold it, tho see it breaking

944
ES just hit the BELOW market short trigger of 1314.50, tho i jumped in at 1316

943
nothings changed since yest at 3:50 PM,,,same trgts, same chartts,,,SPY put in a lower low on daily, now looking for thwe lower high, which may be forming atm

942
my QuickSwing signal for SPY spx remains on SELL SHORT, regardless if it goes higher,,,still says lower prices

939
1317.50 hit on es,,,considering the 1318 trgt hit, and looking for lower

932
shorted 1316. initial position

930
or short below mkt 1314.50

929
shorting the open ES 1318 could work today, imo

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday thoughts

442
Bears step one accomplished: lower low, now needs step 2 a lower high pref at/under 1320 ES or 1322 spx,,,maybe the lower high was made today, we will know soon enough if the bears can pull off step 2,, else its more chop or higher

But bearish bias for now short-term, the SPY quickSwing remains on "Stay short since Friday's close", for another 1-3 days,,, there is no "midTerm" multiweek swing short setup

343
SPY quickSwing signal remains on "stay short from friday's close",, prob 1-3 more days on spy signal left for quick trade

340
CHRW quickSwing still valid to hold another day, alt could take profits here at today close,,,i remain short

338
EUO waking up into the close a bit here

331
looks like closing hour analysis is wrong today, it still says lower into the 400-415 time

305
closing hour analsis: bearish into final hour, not as strong as fridays signal,, the poss 3min dbl top has nothing to do with closing hour analysis, unrelated


305
ES poss bear dbl top on 3min chart, and 2 bear shoot stars

241
bought EUO Feb12 19 Call at .85 / .90, quickSwing

229
EUO looks good near here,

226
US Dollar looks like it wants higher tomorrow,,if so gold may go lower

139
SPY now near resist 131.15, prior support brokken turned resist,, then 132.00ish spy if it can break over 131.15ish,, but for now the 131.15ish is resist

134
121.47 TLT i'll take profits on 50-75% of shares, if it hits there, will also take profit on  TMF there for 13% profit

124
getting choppy here now on ES

110
TLT did make higher daily highs today as expected, and doesn't look finished yet

106
if 122 TLT is tested, if it makes it up there, i believe it will go over 122 (after normal possibl pullback)

1226
i'm not saying it was a flash crash warning,,,but it's weirdness similar to that,  intraday only, similar to FOMC wedn 2pm volatility measures reactions

1225
an "unusual event" just triggered, strange, and may mean a sudden move in ES and in individ stocks, bearish bias,,,no way to measure % confidence on it, but watching for "something" to happen in 3mins--1 hour, at ES 1304

1220
the VXX 1/26 green candle pattern, with other indic, suggest 2900ish VXX test,,,and 3200 if 2900ish breaks (approx targets only)

1205
we may get a nice quickSwing setup on short oil, or long sco, but i'm waiting until 2pm-4pm to decide,,,for a hold 1 hr--3 days with likely exit tomorrow or next day

1138
watch out for TLT---it looks like it wants to make new daily highs, TMF is already up 4.5% from Friday and and 10.02% from entry post

1134
LINE short looks good here, for both quicktrade 1 hour--3 days and  midterm swing days weeks, still short via april puts but quicktrade would use earlier expir puts,,, 3680 LINE looks breakable lower

1112
1302 es shorts could work here, 76% confid sell signal but its on the 3min charts not 15 or 50 min, so for scalp

1056
fwiw, Friday's closing analysis that said "gap down monday" is also saying no swing longs yet, on spx spx es

1054
considering etf MLPL alerian, or some of its components individ, no entry yet, LONG

1039
however, still waiting for ANN and HPQ shorts to "kick in" :(

1037
TLT TMF are also up nicely this morn, tmf up almost 4%,, looks like TLT found its bottom on 12/5 as i posted was possible

1036
On Monday I suggested we get a gap down on SPY SPX today, got a nice gap lower, good for shorts

1035
Fridays 1314 ES "quick short" 1-3 days is working, also the Friday near close CHRW quick short, still holding both

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday thoughts

423
closing hour charts said ES to close under 1312 between 300-415pm,,,closed 1312.75,,,analysis failed

406
it looks like a good chance that the shorts will kick in next week and start to perform, swings

403
watching to see if they close ES under 1312 by 415pm

356
quicktrade 1-3 days on spy is"short" here at ES 1314

308
theres the short signal on es, 1313 last

303
1313--1315 ES initial entry #1 short area

303
charts suggest a close under 1312 ES, or a gap down on Monday possible even if ES rallies into close,,, SPX on a 4 hour bear bias imo

251
yesterdays "final hour close" analysis suggested "boring"...today it suggests more volatile possible, with bias down, unless something changes in next 11 minutes,,ES last is 1312

223
if TLT can get over 118.60 we may see a reaction lower today in ES SPX

222
2pm==3pm is impt time of day for tlt, and its moving up

214
As expected, TLT is now testing the 118 area with a nice move up intraday

152
CHRW shorts look good here at 6850ish for both quick trade (to take profit today or tomorrow) and mid term swing hold,,, same signal from yesterday's RIC long that gave 2.5% overnight

1041
poor VXX: ES down .36% and VXX down .45%,,,but if vxx holds here it could set up a bull morn star on vxx

1027
despite SPX weakness this morn, RIC quick trade popped up 2.5%ish from post yest. taking profits here makes sense for a quick trade, else could hold for new daily highs over yest.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thurs thoughts

353
but we do have a daily BEAR dark cloud cover, almost the more bearish engulfing, today on the daily spy

352
may 2, july 8, oct 27 SPY was far from its 10 MA daily, despite todays bear candle, downside limited on first try on spy imo,,,

341
REN rejected pretty harshly at its 50 MA today, down 4% tho was up about 4% yest

333
RIC might be a nice quick trade, 1 hour to 2 days possible pop higher,,, 1187 last

307
we may have a boring last hour into the close on es spy today

243
SPY timing analysis says wait 1-3 days before buying spx, its halfway thru the signal so hard to tell how many days now,,,(or signal says remain short)

241
IF SPY closes near here, we have a bearish dark cloud cover reversal lower pattern on the daily charts

240
timing analysis says look at where TLT is in 1-3 days, in a "going higher" timeframe now, but watching to see how high it goes (a lot or a little)

153
look at aapl daily 9/21 and 10/18 big gaps up that went lower, i still see aapl 412-420 and may short it soon (not today),,,first time i'd be short aapl in a long time,,,have been trading long up to 444

131
watch TLT from 2pm--3pm,, looks like it wants higher

1036
MPEL hit its 1197 trgt, makes sense to take 20%+ profits and step aside for awhile

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wednesday thoughts

144
for swings it looks like TLT has found its bottom and is poised to go higher in the coming days/weeks, its  surging higher before the 2pm-3pm critical time of day, from 116 to 118 today

1031
despite all the excitement, i still see aapl 412--425 area, last 447 tho i'm not shorting it, at least not yet

1027
REDF down 14%, glad im out of it, tho a rebound for mid term holds higher is expected,,,will wait it settle awhile before buying it back

1025
SPPI longs are up 1.5% this morn despite the SPX down, still holding for same higher targets in SPPI,,, perhaps the various shorts in AA HPQ STD SAP will begin to move from swing loss to swing profit area

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tues thoughts

528
AAPL  overshot the 444 trgt afterhours and may want 412-425 despite this surge

452
aapl at 460 now AH,,, watching for 412--425

436
fwiw, on QQQ nsadaq indice, my "swing long add more" has been on "WAIT" since Jan 6 and hasnt given an "add long" thru this move up,,,oftentimes the move will fail when it does that. the "add longs swing QQQ" is looking like it would give an add signal bounce in 1-3 days,, that is, since Jan 6 its been on "hold longs from lower levels but do not add or enter new positions"

409
i'm still interested in REDF again after taking profits other day, but still waiting 1-2 more days given current charts. rigth now redf is acting as expected.  still have SPPI long and the various shorts

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday ramblings

1055
ANN having trouble here, i remain short for now, but 2350/2450 would be bullish bearish moves under or over either one, watching reactions at its support test now

956
i will hold half SPPI longer: the daily --was a 6-7 day bull flag that i entered at bottom of flag on friday,,has broken the flag higher this morn

931
SPPI hit it first target this morning at 16.00, for 5% profit on that piece in one day since Friday entry, wth 1602 high.  I still see higher SPPI for swings

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday thoughts

404
1 million shares of HPQ  sold red at 28.13

350
a close over 1530 sppi would be good, has moved up here with ES spx but really needs over 1530

340
CHRW has a nice big red candle, countering yest green one, i remain swing short chrw

321
sppi,,,i like that its been consolod for 6-7 hourly candles near its support,,,risk is that it breaks lower bu i think its headed higher

315
im not sure if it can do it, but if REDF can stay over 860, its forming a nice bull coil, more easily seen on the 60min chart since last tues,,if REDF could get a little less volatile as its range narrows while the coil matures ,,,i might buy it again for the 4th time

307
my REDF analysis incl timing suggests that it creeps higher next 2-3 days. but upside is limited, then will correct, maybe in 1-3-5 days i will buy the correction,, so i'm on sidelines now in redf

246
i was never filled on the TLT order, i am now cancelling it,,will look later for opp to add TLT TMF

201
watching to see what TLT does at the impt 2pm--3pm hour

154
CHRW shorts, gave a nice red candle todeay on that position, still holding those longer too

153
HPQ shorts are not working atm, red for now, but still holding them for lower prices

151
VXX possibly waking up here, watching to see if follows thru or not

143
ABOVE the market i will buy TLT over 117.61, i.e. buy stop 117.61 at the market, 117.10 last TLT

123
i finally bought SPPI 15.20, for swing,,,looks like it could move to 1535 fast, but holding for over 1600 swing trgt

119
out of esv, took profits on second half,,,may re-enter later, but taknig a break now on the quicktrades :)

118
"something" is happening in TLT,,,watching to see if moves up or down from here, 3min chart volume increase  spike,,,may be signalling a rally on TLT

1255
and the low odf day on ESV is 5092, where i covered half, bounced exactly at .92,,,stioll watching .87 next

1245
esv 5092 trgt to take profit on half,,,if it hits 5088 then stops may trigger sending it lower

1244
5092 esv i'll take off half if it hits there,,5102 last

1243
esv just hit the 5103 second trgt :)

1242
ESV moving down while ES moving up,,,now if only ES would move down for a few minutes, it could really put nice selling pressure in esv

1241
5123 ESV stop now,,,

1238
ESV acting well here,,,i'm just continuting to trail the stop tightly lower on the 3min chartr on this one day trade

1235
5127 stop on the ESV quicktrade

1228
if esv can break 51.14, could move down nicely, last 5122 but theres support at 5118

1227
ESV--volume increase here on 3min chart---"something" may happen soon up or down,tightening stops to protect profits in case it decides up not down

1208
again im being cautious and proactive in the ESV short since the daily trend is still up not down, trading the bear harami daily among other things, but a bounce later would be expected when this correction finishes

1208
ESV next short trgt lower 5103, but i'm trying to get 49.27 trgt (shich would take longer, or multiple "take profit and re-enter" trades,, 5124 last

1201
ESV 3min and 15min charts are NOT rallying higher with the ES move higher here, good for ESV shorts

1137
ESV hit 5125,,,im considering the first trgt of .22 as being achieved, still see lower but active traders would take the 1% profit for a trade lasting  35 minutes

1130
if es 1304 break gives 1299 intraday trgt lower

1128
ESV quicktrade doing well, up 0.65% since entry 25min ago,,approaching trgt 1

1109
possible longs, regardless of what spx does, but none are ready yet:  MENT  REDF  MPEL  PHM  NCTY  SPPI  HSTM  TLT  MITK  AKRX  VDSI  GHDX

1103
ESV i likely will not hold long since daily is in uptrend, just trading it quickly, but the daily does have a bear harami reversal yesterday signaled

1102
51.22 first trgt on ESV short

1101
shorted ESV here 51.74, possibly take profits on it today

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thurs thoughts

356
took profits on 3rd entry in REDF, i will look to re-enter it later long, or perhaps another stock,,,have only 25% of shares left, sold 75% of shares to lock those profits'
'
339
bear eve stars on spy iwm possible, still only day 2

339
VXX and TZA have a poss morning star 3 day candle pattern, with this as day 2, and a gap higher tomorrow as day three.  the last one i mentioned worked, but this is early entry only as the pattern is not formed

331
new interim trgt REDF 944 befor the 1023

318
we may see some wild action today afterhours

317
tza has high volume and can trade afterhours 4pm, may take profits today on the tza, else will hold as swing

316
bought tza 22.30

306
stopped out of vxx scalp, took profits

300
TLT only made 118.40,,missed the 118.60 trgt by 3pm

254
to protect scalp profits, stop raised to .46 for half of vxx and breakeven for other half

251
VXX hit the .62 trgt and is hanging out there now,,,still see higher than .61 since it made it this high

245
1308 es test holgind first try as normal but looks breakable lower

240
IBM continuing lower ahead of earnings

239
vxx at 1% profit target from entry scalp earlier today, tvix about 2%,,,half off and keeping half makes sense

236
1308 es test, thats the pivot, from 1pm

234
vxx trying for .62,,,i still think if it makes .62 it will go higher than that

232
TLT nice move on 3min chart BUT not much volume behind it, likely stall at .50 unless vol increases

228
CORN and Cotton futures have also popped up, often a signal for higher vxx and lower spx

222
but TLT needs that .60 to really move,,not hit yet

221
if TLT rises during the 2pm==3pm hour, often vollatilty increases as the "safety trade higher" comes in

220
higher TLT should be good for VXX   TVIX

200
vxx at 2952 scalp target for entry #2 again here

159
if TLT can close today over 118.60 then it has a chance of its daily correction having ended, for a run at a retest of prior daily highs, then new highs

157
if VXX tests 2965 today, it will probably make highs over that today, toward second saclp target

155
watching TLT from the 2pm--3pm hour may provide enlightenment

151
We have Microsoft (MSFT), Intel (INTC), Google (GOOG), and IBM (IBM) reporting after the close today.


149
IBM selling off a bit here, not good for IBM DOW

136
REDF has had buying support on declines to 860,,question is: if it doesnt pullback, will they chase it higher????

132
1308 and 1312 pivots, in between no mans land

131
the ES reaction here at 1311 /1312 may well determine how ES closes today, likely to close in direction of over or under the 1312

127
imo ANN multiweek/months i remain bearish , i believe it will break under 2250 and again under 2150 for new lows,,,but anything can happen with chart changes

122
REDF over 897 is more impt than over 900 imo,,last 889 but has been resist here, and above at 925

118
scalpers could reenter vxx again her 2931 and have same trgt again, .50,for half, with higher trgt for second half

1235
first trgt 2953 vxx hit and exceeded

1223
vxx looks headed for .50 test, but must hurdle it to sustain higher, same trgts

1211
vxx over 2952 intraday, could pop nicely if it can hurdle that, last 2930 and still a vxx buy signal on 3min charts

1210
clearly 924 is a trgt on redf b4 the 1023 trgt,,,,based on simple 925 last prior high,,but i still want to see how it reacts to the 925 test if it gets there, as it may break it higher, esp if the test comes after 2pm

1205
now the 15min es is in a bear rising wedge

1155
vxx trgts 2950 and 3140

1148
3min chart scalp long signal on vxx

1148
bought vxx here 2931, to take profit today if able

1108
spx daily bear rising wedge

1108
look at ES 3min chart: large 10am red candles, and small green ones on bounce, suggests lower, among other factors

1105
HPQ "should" fall harder than spx,,,daily hpq in a sideways rectangel vs up for spx last few days

1103
i'm trying to give REDF a chance to break over the 9.25 prior high, why continue to hold for now, with higher lows on daily

1100
887 redf broke higher, now 899 trgt b4 1023

1053
HPQ market maker analysis suggest the MM are pushing up the price, but they are shorting into it, imo,,one reason why i added shorts, its also near resist, and could drift higher while the MM build their positinos

1048
adding HPQ shorts here 2707, to take profits on half today if able, and hold half longer

1045
1308.75 es short could work here

1018
PUTS have NOT kicked in yet tho,,,red on those atm but see lower in feb or march for those

1016
i might continue to actively trade REDF in and out,,,so far did 2 roundtrips on REDF with 8% and 7% profit, and a hjalf roundtrip at 5% profit

1013
for now my orders on REDF: sell limit 10.23, or stop 8.07, last 8.79

957
AA puts still have timje to move up to 50 cents

955
Adding FEB 9 puts in AA here at 10 cents, don't usually do this but they are cheap enough for a try-me trade,

946
i still think TLT is going higher ,for swings,,,TLT daily broke resist, now backtesting imo

943
if REDF gets a close over 8.90,,,it should move to its higher targets, even if spx goes down,,,doesnt follow the spx

941
vxx same trgt to "move",,,needs over 32.60, last 2986

934
IBM has not been trading great lately, if IBM disappoints i think it will affect HPQ, hence the indirect IBM earnings trade via hpq instead of ibm itself

900am
REDF long has also gapped higher this morning (still have second half, having taken profit yest on half)'

858 AM
Premarket MPEL is trading at 11.08 so its 10.97 target from 2 days ago has been achieved.
Various Short positions have not kicked in yet, but I am holding them still.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wednesday thoughts

240
shorted CHRW 66.95ish

234
shorted LINE via puts

234
shorted ANN here 2371

229
Shorted REN via puts

201
shorted hpq near 2683 here

1234pm
bought back TMF here near 70.50, TLT and TMF back in buy zone

1030
REDF has shot up again today, at 5% profit since entry yesterday, certainly nothing wrong with taking profits on half here (or all of it), tho i still see higher,,,i'll keep half

943
i am  taking off for a few hours, or on and off sporadically today, letting REDF bake a little while so may miss opp to take profit exit, then buy lower, today

940
if vxx can get over 32.53 then it may really surge higher, not there yet

939
VXX pushing up against yesterday high, higher vxx likely

915
still waiting to re-enter TLT tmf 3x, no entry yet since exit 2 days ago,,,

eventually SHORT TLT or long tbt multiweek swing may present, but thats far away atm, not near setup, for a huge correction lower in tlt and higher tbt

848
two trades on redf 6% and 7% profit each so far, this is the third entry, i'm "actively" trading the redf swing, i'm still short in AA  SAP  DB  STD, and still long VXX, all swings

847
REDF next major target is 10.23, it achieved its first swing target yesterday of 8.87 with a high of 9.25.

As posted, I took profits at 8.87 and then bought it back at 8.45 yesterday

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tues thoughts

351
bought redf back at 8.45 and 8.46

327
no entry yet, but before 4pm today, i'm going to buy back REDF again for the third time, it overshot its target 7% profit, and has since plunged lower,,,but charts suggest a nother move up again in this volatile stock

246
i have no more long positions now,,,exited all today

245
i dont think ES will test its highs today,,,possible top in ES imo

242
added more AA puts .15,,,the .12 did not get filled

235
as feared, and warned by vix and TLT,, spy spx fell, stopped out of ROK and took profits for now,,,will look at new entries later

218
stop ROK raised again 8037

210
action of vxx vix and tlt concerns me on the long side, so took the profit

209
i CANCELLED the order to buy back MPEL, it was not filled, for now i'm on the sidelines

208
raising stop on ROK to 79.8 to protect profits, last is 8056

124
yes if MPEL doesnt move lower i'll be paying more for it than i sold it for, but i expect higher if it can get 1078,,been hangng around 1075 for hours now

122
i took profits on MPEL here at 1073, and will buy lower again, OR i'll buy at 10.78 buy stop above the market

116
MPEL is in a daily uptrend last 5 days, and has not had much pullback at all today despite a gap, odds favor into the close , rather than lower,,,aka trend day

100
MPEL continues to hang out 2-3 cents from its high of day and also resist, despite the spx move down intraday

100
ROC is at a "buy back" level here now, for swing, and poss scalp also, 8021 last, may move lower first but in the zone

1214
129875 more resist 

1213
theres the 1297 ES scalp trgtr higher resist test, BUT its on a big candle so may break higher here

1157
wow REDF now up 9% in one day!

1142
MPEL breakable higher poss in next 1--9 minutes per 3min charts

1141
MPEL now coiling to build momentum for its upside break,,,one cent under resist and 3 cents under breakout #

1138
7% profit on REDF in 2 days taken,,,i will now buy it back again lower, later

1137
WOW what a move on REDF,,,took profits at the 887--890 trgt :)

1132
the more impt REDF resist is 8.89,,,,may take profits up there and then try to buy back lower, would be the 7% profit trgt if redf hits it

1131
REDF is waking up and may break its daily high resist at 879, 870 last

1117
MPEL still pushing against resist, 1073 last, 1075 resist, with 1077 breakout #

1115
ROK 60min is forming its 3rd bull flag,,,i plan to exit to take profits on the next break higher on the 3rd flag if able, and then mayber reenter lower again, curr up 2.5%ish

1101
looking for an ABC corection lower on the TLT 15min chart not deaily, and will likely enter long TLT TMF on the lower low, if able, same strat as b4,,, for second long entry after taking profits on friday

1100
9.99 AA trgt from 990 scalp, last 993, and i will short this bounce via puts if filled on the puts

1058
there it is,,,hit .25,,,but remeber resist 1097

1057
1294.25 buy stop ,above mkt, would give es long scalp setup

1055
es short scalp, still forming with no entry signal yet at 1093 last,,also theres resist at 1097

1053
9.90 here short term scalp long signal on AA for a retest of its highs,,not swing

1050
above the mkt at 10.78 buy stop MPEL is a breakout buy, i will not add sinnce i entered on friday under 1040,, last 1072, 1075 resist

1045
here comes the second low on 3min es, or a dbl bot instead, for the long scalp i mentioned 45 min ago,,,still no entry setup yet, forming still, and i will likely not trade it, just throwing out ideas for discussion

1037
i'm ADDING to AA puts if able at .12,,,last .13

1036
MPEL is now testing daily resist and its new dialy high,,,expecting it to make a higher daily hi and break this resist

1030
REDF also has a 20% profit target on the underlying stock, not on options calls

1029
12.40 is primary resist daily on MPEL above

1029
my limit sell order on MPEL is at 12.00 for now,,tho has an 11.97 trgt, may sell lower

1025
3min chart on es is basing now

1014
TLT has broken over its 15min resist,,,i am going to wait before buying it back, tho its below prior exit price,,,think it has another pb coming first,, if it breaks higher instead, i might buy back near prior exit area and pay the premium depending on charta

1003
another lower low on the daily 3min, then smaller 3min basing candles, would setup a long scalp, not formed yet,, similar to the pattern on fridays long scalp, buy the second lower low and divergence

1003
for scalps, this move down on ES will likely be bought and bounce on first try, tho no scalp entry yet,,,i likely will not take the long scalp on ES,,,just throwing out ideas,,i prefer individ stocks long instead of spy tna etc for now

1002
but i still ahve short swing positions in AA DB SAP STD,,long VXX

1000
on REDF daily,,i'm looking for it to breakout, like ROK did on daily, similar pattern tho REDF not in the uptrend that rok is

958
REDF daily and 60min--making a 3rd/4th drive at a prev high test,,,could break higher this time,, often 3-4 will break

951
REDF just hit its 4% profit trgtr from entry on fridya, but i want to see if it can break to new highs daily, so holding it here longerimo,,,please watch the TLT---notice its flat today despite move up on SPX<,,,still think re-entering TLT will present, and lower spx

950
imo,,,please watch the TLT---notice its flat today despite move up on SPX<,,,still think re-entering TLT will present, and lower spx

946
MPEL and ROK longs are 2 entirely diff strategies:  ROK is a "breakout to new highs in existing uptrend daily" trade,, vs MPEL / REDF trades as "trading the move up from a bottom base, daily"

945
1085--1091ish resist on MPEL tho,,may exit there on stall and re-enter lower like i did b4 at the 1055 resist, unsure

944
imop MPEL doing well,,it has broken over prior 1064 high, making new highs

943
ROK trgt is 84, may sell sooner to take profit and re-enter, still far from trgt at 81 last but its making new daily highs

933
ROK has also made a new high, at 8051, up 1% this morn
TLT TMF 3x looking to re-enter but no entry yet


932
MPEL is also up nicely at  2.1% profit atm

931
Newly entered REDF long on Friday has gapped up 3.1% this morning, still holding it for now. it has hit the 3.60 target posted on Friday, but giving it some time to see if it wants higher

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday thoughts

338
buying now since it may see 8.60 b4 the close

337
i just bought REDF back again for swing long,,,same stock i took 4% profit on b4,,,see higher REDF

310
1284.25 es was hit, should see its next 1289 trgt now

305
clearly MPEL has more resist at 10.64, simple prior hjigh, if it moves up from here, tho 1097 trgt is above it, may take off half or all of it depending on the close today

305
taking half off from 1278ish here at 1283 would make sense, 5 points profit (i didnt trade it)

305
heres the 1283 es test,,,looks breakable higher,,the scalp long entry from before suggests to watch this area, if it doesnt break higher over 1284, likely pullback

255
MPEL--no conclusive Markt Maker analysis that I can see

253
market maker analysis on ROK suggests they are buying it, despite lower,,,for higher later today or in coming days

250
ES needs over 1284 intraday to move up, imo,,,if 1284 is hit, could see 1289

241
5444 last sap, near 5500 resist, with targets 51.50 and 4800

239
took SAP Mar12 52.5 Put,,using options for this short since SAP reporting soon,
SAP has been on the short list for 4 days now,,,

213
oil is now stuck in the middle of its daily huge range, i'm not trading it here, could go either way, esp given its wild swings lately

157
the 60min chart on MPEL has a bull coil, it has momentum to spring higher if that coil breaks

155
es trying to test 1283,,those who took short scalp would watch reaction there,,,es needs to clear 1284 else lower coming

151
a VXX close over approx 31.25 today would confirm the prior bull morning star, and a close over approx 3225 would confimr yesterdays inverted hammer,,the vxx closes would be bearish for spx swings

134
scalp mpel trgts 2 and 3 are up higher at 1060 and 1097

134
MPEL scalps could take 1% prodfit here, near trgt 1,,,,swings i'm holding longer

129
ROK fell asleep :( tho still over its entry price

102
VXX swing is starting to look v promising now, nice daily candles, for coming balstoff higher,,may take days but thats fine

1249
the es scalp setup triggered,,,i'm not trading it,,,

1240
MPEL scalp or swing here 1036 could work

1240
ES scalp above mrkt at 1278.50 could work,,this one i might trade, unsure

1231
3min candle count suggests waiting just a bit b4 scalp

1230
this would be about the time for that ES scalp here at 1278,,,conserv would scalp over 1279.50

1225
if es can get over 1284, it may test 1289/90,,,still dont see a long swing tho, only scalp

1217
ES needs to clear 1284 on the next bounce else its in trouble, and will see lower

1216
i'm not taking the scalp, just throwing out ideas

1215
es hit 1278 trgt and held support there

1215
here is that second lower low we expected on es 3min,,,if it bases, then a long scalp may present

1208
when ROk gets back over .72, should make a run for its highs at 8014, then new highs

1208
they are trying to form a bull Inv HS on the es 3min chart

1207
we have the first smaller candle on es 3min,,prob one more 3min chart low, that would be scalpable long,,not suggesting swing long

1203
poss 1277 support on ES,intraday only on 3min charts

1202
heres the 3min pullback from resist,,,when the candles start to base, it could make a scalp now swing, long

1146
tho i still prefer individ stocks over es

1145
ABOVE the mkt long 1284 could work, es sclp

1144
1283 ES 15min resist test coming here,,,may stall sideways or lower

1143
active traders wouldve bought bak ROK at 7975 as it backtest its breakout out

1140
ROK hit 8015 and pulled back to 7977,,,as expected,,,still see higher ROK later tho,,,why we took off some at 8014 trgt

1137
we got advance warning yesterday of today's selloff in ES --remeber those small 15min candles on the way up? often it falls kinda hard afterward

1135
took off half of ROK scalp portion at the 8014 trgt,,,still see higher,,about 1.6% profit from entry this morn

1130
ROK 7997 lsat,,,been trying to get over 80,,i think it will do so,,pop to 8014 then mayb stall again

1119
TLT TMF took 7 days to do it but it hit its first trgt

1118
theres goes TLT and TMF,,,my stop was hit as expected, took profits, and will look to buy it back swing at lower price,later

1110
ES longs, scalp only not swing, may present but i'd wait a bit for a 3min chart pullback,,,i prob wont trade it since the individ stocks like ROK are outperforming spx

1106
allowing a little room for a pop higher, else i'm out of TMF TLT for now

1105
raising stop on TMF to 71.19,,v v tight,, will prob get stopped out to take profit, and will try to buy again lower,,,TLT is right near resist here and is at trgt 1,,so i dont want to lose profit on it

1058
ROK has done it---broke over yesterdays high as expected,,still holding it

1057
if MPEL hits 1099 today i will sell again second time to take profit, and look again to reenter

1054
ROK is now just 16-20 cents away from yesterdays high, 79.54 last

1052
MPEL fell about 2% from entry, and has now bounce back to entry breakeven,,nervous would exit here,,i remain long mpel for now, swing, and will take profits today if it moves

1049
looking to short NRGY on a bounce, not yet

1049
rok already testing its daily high, and close to yest hi test

1043
DBA--agriculture, is approaching swing buy zone, but no entry, yet

1042
STD at impt place here,,if it breaks 6.90 and then breaks 6.80, the PUTS should do well,,,still have not moved much since entry

1033
raising stop on TMF to 70.69,,if stopped out i will take profits and buy back lower,,,TLT and TMF should fall further if stopped, tho still see higher later even if stopped

1028
while MPEL has fallen since entry,,,MPEL is much more volatile

1028
there goes rok :)

1027
TLT===imo the first 60min pullback will be bought, so not taking tlt or tmf profits, has not even started a pb yet

1025
ROK 15min chart is bullish vs ES 15min chart,,still see higher rok

1021
if TLT breaks over 122.22,,,then "wee" will come for TLT TMF imo,,tho stall at 121.70ish expected

1019
vxx up now nicely from 3097 post, last 3214,,,vxx call may give 300-400% before they r done

1014
tza idea up 3.2% from yest close,,,make sense to tighten stops here, or take profit and reenter

1012
this looks bad on es,,,i still think it will bounce and the bounce will be shortable,,,why waiting on the short instead of shorting weakness under 1278

1007
for now, i will NOT take the ES 1278 short below the mkt

1002
despite SPX, i'm looking for ROC and MPEL to make new highs,, plan to add shorts in some stocks later today perhaps

952
yesterday I posted that TLT closed well, holding the 119.30,,,TL:T up nicely this morning at 121.15 last,,,TMF up also

948
bought back ROK 78.80 long


945
back in MPEL long 10.40,

926
if oil can climb back to 100, may be a good short swing opp or even poss daytrade, but curr below 9850 at 9821 last

917
agressive could scalp long here, but scalp only, as a "buy support" trade,,,i'm not taking it

916
if ES hits 1278, i may jump on short, below the market, into weakness not strength,,but preferably es will bounce and then get smaller sideways candles, and then enter a short up higher

915
es "looks bad" now at 1281, but likely will bounce from this area even if it goes a bit lower,,,failure to bounce would be bad for bulls and could intiate stronger than expected selling,,,still see lower ES later

906
if you took the TZA trade at yest close, or AH yest, its now at 2.2% profit, halfway to the 4% trgt1,,,could take partial profits here

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thurs thoughts

401
exited oil shorts at exact low of day, from trg posted an hour in advance :)

400
took profits on roc 2.25%  rok 1.61% and sco 8%ish

351
7957 and 4408 stops on roc and rok

346
 i plan to take profits on at least some if not all of ROK and ROC, may not have time to post,,,1.5%-3% profit,,,ES would need to move 13-30 points to do that,,,why i've been trading stocks

336
tite stop on sco 38.20 on remaining piece,,if stopped out will take profits and buy back later

309
took partial profits right at my 98.50 oil trgt :) from 103 and 101.70,,,using sco 2x

237
still holding roc and rok....they r moving up now again,,,but still plan to take partial prfotits on them today b4 close

235
TLT is holding 119.30 ,,,for now

226
ROC and ROK now up 1.5% from yest vs flat ES,,,still holding but will likely take some profits on them today, in the 3-5% profit zone

224
USO and CL charts suggest to hold oil shorts swing at least 4 more hours, which spills over until holding overnight until tomorrow,,the charts suggest that a long signal, if one comes, would not come before 6 hours, with 2 hours in no mans land

223
if TLT is over 119.30 at 3:00 pm,,,would be nice for TLT longs n TMF

219
LOL yet ROK is making new daily highs, as oil falls

217
oil sellers intraday are almost exhausted but could still see more down, with a lil bear flag up first or sideways

216
oil may not find buyers until 9850

215
just hit 9970 while typing,,,see what happens

214
sco shot from 3630 ear;oer today to 3745 last,,, active traders would tighten stops and enter/exit actively, but give it a little room to break lower on oil, higher on sco

212
sco shot from 3630 ear;oer today to 3745 last

212
if oil sees 99.70 it may get additional selling, plunged to 100.09 and bounced

208
there it goes, oil lower :) as sellers were not exhausted yet

207
oil 15min down volume on last move down is not "too much",,,it can move lower,,,volume bar is decent but not suggsting that sellers on oil are exhaustede

203
if the es short scalp sets up,,often we will see the 3min stoch over 80, down to 60ish, then back over 80, then short

200
for es short scalp setup, looking for more up, then sideways, then down a little not lot, then up, and short that last UP, if it presents

159
es 3min now starting its expected bounce,,still no short signal imo

146
one more push on ROC and ROK would be fine, may exit on such

142
es now basing to prep for expected bounce b4 short,,,could make a lower low on 3min first, unsure

141
oil support 1 broke:) ,,now to test supp 2

140
oils testing support 1 now, support 2 close below it

139
this first 3min pb on ES will likely bounce,the bounce may be shortable, scalp, imo

129
ROC 45.50 trgt, last 44.08, new dily high just now

126
the 2:30--3pm pm action on TLT today--may be v impt clue,,will watch what it does

123
oil USO and CL futures daily---beginning to coil now,,often break higher bvut "something" tells me this one will break lower

122
oil continues its same whipsaw song and dance,,,several days now

121
the move down to the 119.30 TLT buy trgt was harsh, but TLT has held nicely thus far, bouncing to .60

117
notice the tiny candles on the 15min ES chart move up,,,could be trouble for ES later

111
that es scalp long signal from this morn,,,says sell it now to take profits,,,,i didnt trade it but chart says sell 1289

108
TLT is now at 119.30 buy area posted earlier, but it got here so fast, makes sense to let it settle down b4 adding any,imo

104
VXX daily shoot star, but at the bottom those are bullish candles despite the pb

1242
TLT needs to hurdle over 120.30, then it should pop higher nicely, last 120.05, 

1241
EXC hit 40.02 today, right near its 40.00 trgt from yest, tho i took profits yest a bit early

1231
TLT looks ready to make a break over its 15min resist soon

1230
huge green candle on ROC 3min, to make a new daily high

1226
TLT 15min is now testing its resist, as expected hour ago

1141
there it is,,broke to a new high on ROK

1140
poss new highs intraday on ROK in next 3--12 minutes

1130
TLT 15min chart is bullishly consolod ,,it may make a move to test its 15min highs next

1113
ROK swing trgt 82ish, last 7866, but i will likely trade it actively in and out, due to spx and dow bearish warnings, swings

1108
ROK at trgt 1, 7877 last, may stall here but see higher,

1107
15min ES bull harami, almost confirmed,,,at same time a bull harami still baking on the 60min es,,,good for intraday scalps only not swings, long

1104
3min ROK is now forming a BULL W formation, 7960 trgt approx

1056
but ROK "should" make new daily highs, over 7880, so im holding it

1055
nervous ROK longs could exit here breakeven,,i will continue to hold it

1033
for now, STD puts are  not moving yet, still see lower std tho, higher puts

1032
ES scalp bounce alert, 76% confid, here at 128450,,scalp only NOT swing

1030
my posted VXX trgt from yest was 31.80,,thus far it hit 31.82 and has pb as expected, last 31.67,,tho much higher later after pb intraday

1025
intraday, the next 3min candle, nmot this one, may provide a good clue to direction of ROK for coming hour(s),,,may continue in direction of that candle

1025
TLT may want 119.30,,,if so poss area to add to TLT swings

1015
VXX at 3176 right near 3180 trgt,,,may stall here and pb

1009
aggressive scalp only could work here es 1285.50,,ES,,i'm not taking it

958
long ROK 78.32,,i may take profits as soon as today on ROK,,,ROK is diff company than ROC, i have both

952
for long hedges, ROC i still see hitting 45.50, last 43.54,,i remain long ROC the underlying stock not options, with PUTS in AA  DB  STD  ,,,calls in vxx

947
a VXX dail close over 31.25 and pref over  31.75 would confirm the bull morning star candle pattern that i mentinoed yesterday

945
if tlt gets over 120.30, then 120.80 and 121.70 next higher trgts

943
VXX taking off at the open here, but needs to clear 31.80-32.00 for the REAL upside surge

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

New ideas for possible entry on Thursday

(Targets are approx, and are the first target only, most have higher 2nd and third targets)

Below:

New ideas from tonight's screen (narrowed down from screener results of over 400)

LONG Breakout with volume today 

MHO    1150-1250 OR 8.5%

ROK     78-83 OR 6.5%

HSTM   1830--1920 OR 5%

HALO    1000-1100 OR 10%

MENT    1330-1375 = 3%

GHDX     2800-2900 = 3%

PLFE OVER 11.00

SHORTS Breakdown with volume today. Vol generally over 500,000

SAP

REXX

PPL

ANN

CHRW

CHK

SWN

BBG

The above could work for both underlying stock or the options.  To reduce risk, I tend to use options for shorting if it's a small cap, lower volume,  or lower priced.  Most of these have a dual purpose: hold for 2-5 days, and also suitable to hold for a few weeks. So on options I'll usually get ones with about 60 days expiration left.

The 2-5 days sometimes end up as quick same day exits if they happen to move that day, like todays same day 4.5% move on REDF and 2% on MPEL. I have higher targets for MPEL but it closed right at resistance so I took profits at 3:55 PM. Can always re-enter.

Options trades have been giving 60--300% in a few days, with AA the only current 60% loss (tho there is still time left on AA puts and they may easily recover). The options profits would be even higher if I used same month options; conservatively I'm using 2-3 months options to give it room if it needs time to correct first; though I generally buy in the money.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wedn thoughts

401
a HUGE volume candle on ROC on the last 6 minutes b4 the close as it surged up,,,,highest vol all day and most of the days volume

401
REDF 4.2% in 1 day,,,  MPEL 2% in 1 day,,, EXC 70% (puts options) in 3 days,,,still holding TLT TMF ROC SCO puts in DB STD AA ,,,and vxx calls

358
out of MPEL `036 and 1037,,,over 2% profit from entry this morning

355
i will hold ROC longs overnite,,,resist higher on that

355
preparing to take profits on MPEL b4 the close here,,,may not be able to type my exit

336
theres 1035 trgt,,,watching to see if it gives the next expected 2 targets, mpel

322
if mpel hits 1035, should see the 1039 test higher

318
TLT taking off after 3pm is a bit unusual, bullish as its reacting to futures

315
if MPEL hits 1086 i'll sell it, may sell a piece earlier at lower price to lock some more profit

311
not sure if it plays out, but 60min oil CLfutures have bear HeadShoulders at the top here

306
1039 MPEL prior daily hi resist,,,,watching if it tests it and breaks it higher, tho normal is a stall on first test, 1029 last

300
MPEL may be on the move, up 1.4% from entry this morn

258
VXX daily chart---see the 3 day candle pattern: morning star, with today day 3, and confirm needed after today---bullish for VXX

253
DB deutche bank 60min looking toppy and should pb,,,still holding the option puts swing, not much movement on them yet,,,same for STD puts

247
look at that volume bar on 3min oil chart and 15min chart ...large bar CL futures

241
imo,,, "early long entries" on VXX are here, or on the next 60min chart pb, tho i already entered yest / day b4

229
OIL continues its whipsaw rangebound dance, now its down again near lows

208
glad i took profits on REDF at 8.75,,last 8.33,,not buying it back yet

207
but SINA is a bit early,,,could decide to break daily rectangl higher, so watching for now

205
SINA short could work (idea, i have no position), 57.00

119
8.88 trgt redf next,,,may get hit today, if so then i exited too early

118
took profit on REDF that i bought this morn, it surged to a 4.2% profit, and didnt want to let it go away,,,may buy it back later,, i didnt intend to sell REDF so quickly,,planned to hold as swing, but profit opp presented,,,looking to buy it back ,,,maybe even today

106
REDF now at the 8.73 trgt,,,it has ability to break higher on first try, watching reaction now

100
EXC may want to bounce to 41.25...so out for now at the low of day (unless it makes another low)

1259
took profits on EXC puts, 75% in 2 days,,,may buy puts back later,,,holding all other positions still

1248
if exc does not break 4055 soon, i will likely take profits on puts 75%ish and look to re-enter, possibly reenter even later today

1240
VXX "should" catch up to TLT,,,tlt usually leads

1239
clearly 40.00 EXC is an approx trgt,,,,too lazy to calc exact trgt, wont matter with options anyway

1238
EXC now testing low of day,,i want 4000,,last 4061,,,

1237
TLT has a 15min breakout higher, if its real then it should see 121.50 trgt next,if the breakout holds,, 119.86 last

1221
REDF trgt hit, now at 3% up since entry this morn,,still holding as a see a break over prior high coming

1220
MPEL is starting to breakout now, can move nicely higher, new intraday high, and broke highest hi last 5 days

1215
i'm using TLT and TMF etf, not options but actually the TLT options calls havent done so badly, when i bought TLT and TMF, TLT Mar 119 calls were 3.35,, last 3.50/3.60

1208
yest vxx broke the  3060 and hit 3100 as expected, still see much higher vxx

1207
\TLT ande TMF still looking like a breakout higher coming, remaining long those swings,, bull consod on 60min charts

1140
SPPI is on the move now at 1586 from 1582 and will likely break over 1600,,no position in sppi, just watching the "wanted to buy but no money" trade

1128
REDF up 2% since entry this morn, still see its higher trgts

1120
still have DB puts, those havent moved much, and STD puts from yest

1119
the problematic AA feb puts remain a thorn, loss 50%ish atm, still see a better exit on the AA puts tho,later

1118
EXC puts now at 70% profit, in 2 days

1117
EXC they are still not letting up for air, almost all of the last 15min candles have had a lower low,, when EXC does manage a bounce on 15min chart, the first bounce will likely be sold, and then a retest of the low, or lower low, where I will prob take profit

1114
OIL "should be" bearish bias / sideways next 2-4 hours,,,if it manages to break higher over resist b4 then, would be bullish for oil, still bear bias atm

1109
EXC approaching trgt #2 as it makes a new intraday low here, will likely take profits on 50-100% of position at trgt 2 below, 40.00ish

1104
WARNING: position size on the small caps ,,,i always have smaller size position than large caps,,,small caps fun, v profitable, but more risky

1046
ROC went long 43.10

1037
oil has managed to break under 101,,,now watching 100 area

1032
TLT is now testing resistance,,,pressing against it,,,likely break higher

1026
EXC may be heading to 40 next

1025
EXC has broken the 4088 support and hit 40.66,,,still holding the puts longer :)

1023
went LONG in MPEL 10.15, swing

1011
went LONG in REDF 8.35---8.40 for swing

942
newly entered STD short from yest is also lower 1% today,,options PUTS should follow

938
TLT is up this morn, still ahve the TLT TMF longs

937
OIL i'm watching 101 vs 100,,,,if 100 does not break lower, oil might get bullish, still bearish on it for now,but watching

935
EXC just hit its first trgt posted yest at 40.88 /40.92,,but i'm waiting to see if this breaks lowr before taking profits. PUTS up 44% atm

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tues thoughts

356
new PUTS position in STD, 40/45 cents........STD Feb12 7 Put

351
Took the 70% profits on HGG puts and will look to reenter,,,still have other PUTS in other posted positions

342
AA has gone red for the day, even if doesnt close under yest low, HUGE red daily candle on AA

335
vxx made the 3063 trgt,,,watching to see if it hits next trgt b4 close

334
VXX close to T1--3059 last

324
3063 vxx would give 3100 trgt b4 the close if 3063 breaks higher, last 3045

323
EXC 4110 last,,,approaching the .80 trgt from this morn

321
also happened to hgg for 2 days on the 60 min, then HGG dropped 16% one day later

320
they have not let EXC up for air at all today, often this means a gap down on the next day, that's what happened to our shorts in KSS a few days back

305
oil still near low of day, uso

218
EXC has 10 consecutive candles on its 15min chart with a lower low

216
thinking uso breakable partly due to CL futures volume on 3min

215
USO oil testing its low of day now,,,looks breakable

215
v bearish 15min and 3min charts on EXC

214
i might take some profit on EXC today, usually dont take same day on options, but up 20% since entry this morn,,,but waiting longer, esp since it may test 4088 (poss profit area if tests)

200
HGG lkikely will make an ABC correction off todays 16% drop from yest,,,one could take short profits at B and then reload shorts at C again

148
VIX 60min chart has a vix bull diverg on it, vix 22 test higher trgt

120
the EXC options PUTS are off to a good start, up 12.5% since entry this morning,,still have half HGG puts after taking 65% profit

111
still holding tlt and tmf swings,,,see higher on both in coming days weeks

1246
EXC, i'm looking for a 10% move lower, similar to KSS and HGG moves

1244
if DB breaks under 34.70, then trgt is 3407, with 32.50 swing trgt

1204
HGG just keeps moving lower, now down 16% from yesterday at 11.00 last vs 13.13 yest close. Options PUTS up 64% overnight, may take profit on half today

1034
Because it is a foreign bank, DB daily chart shows many gaps, but is fun / profitable to trade - DB - DEUTSCHE BANK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT


 
1029
Bought EXC Feb12 41 Puts at 0.75

936
HGG now at 11.81 vs yest close 13.10,, HGG has gapped down 10% this morning! SImilar to the KSS from last week

935
AA FEB puts remain at loss for now, HGG puts have a gain

934
Added DB Feb12 35 Put at 2.75/2.90

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Updated: Possible new trades, with charts

Monday UPDATE

Charts below are from Friday.

I might buy PANL long on Tuesday tomorrow.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Friday
Considering positions in these stocks. Will do further analysis on them, and watch for intraday buying opportunities on Monday and soon after.

SHORTS - Shorts.  no charts on these yet.  These were down on higher volume Friday.  MMYT, CHIM,EWP,  COST, DB, ANGO, SGK, MHGC, LFC, CS, CSC, IART, short ULE (or long EUO),  JO, HAO, UEFN, 

Other SHORTS STOCKS: LTD, CVH, THI, TDC, CATO, ST, G, BBVA,

SHORTS ETFS: COW, CHIM, 

LONGS are below, with charts.

HLF, RRC, DDS, PANL have volume over 1 million.

CRR Long, may be ready to buy on Monday, or on a break over recent resist. MACD hist also ready to cross over 0.

UA. Long, ready to buy on Monday, or on a break over recent resist. MACD hist also ready to cross over 0. Higher Low on Stoch.

HLF. Long.

BJRI. LONG.

PANL. Long.

DDS.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday thoughts

413
Alcoa Announces Fourth Quarter Loss on Charges Associated with Cutting High-Cost Smelting Capacity, Market Weakness,,, afterhours jumped up to around 9.60, then fell back to 9.41 last, vs 9.43 close of day 4pm


 
 
351
took off rbn profits in 5073 area

343
5147 trgt for now on rbn, last 5073

342
if RBN happens to get over 5085/5100 today it can really pop into the close, tho not expecting that,watching

341
long RBN pushing up a bit into the close, preparing to take profits on partial shares, maybe all of it

247
swing,,,oil has stalled at the 101.50ish area, still holding the shorts from above

244
looking for 52---53 RBN, last 50.25

240
 i have AA puts---if they move from earnings, i'll take profit,,,if not then will hold

239
holding the puts thru earnings report, red 30% atm but they are feb not jan puts,,,seee lower regardless of earnings reactions b4 feb expir

237
i will prob exit the RBN longs today

233
may add more vxx later, on break over resist at higher levels

230
After 5 days, VXX looks ready.  VXX Feb 18 2012 32.0 Calls here 2.65/2.69

1203
or aggressive entry here 100.50 with 100.90//102.12 stop area could work

1202
poss intraday oil scalp may present between 100.80 and 101.25 on 3min chart, still forming not ready yet,,,remaing short oil friom swing perspect

1142
here comes the shortable 3min oil rally mentioned b4,,,not ready yet tho,,,for 3min chart trades not swiongs

1111
daily TLT has bounced up off its ABC corrective move, 121.50, 124, and 127 swing trgts on daily charts

1110
oil broke, new intraday daily low :)

1108
if ES stays under 1271 for more than 15min,,imo bearish intraday reversal,,on 3min charts not daily

1106
there goes tlt,,,119.10 trgt broken higher, for 120ish next,,,the 15min chart "should be " bullish for next hour,,,bullish for swings next few days forward

1103
intraday 3min chart on oil, next bounce (if it bounces) would be shortable C of ABC type move, 3min chart not daily

1100
TLT is right at 119.11 target now, and it looks breakable up to next trgt 120

1050
TLT now just about 15 cents away from clearing its breakout trgt 1

1030
oil has rallied a little, but still under the bearish #,,,oil rally intraday compared to ES rally,,,oil much weaker

1008
HGG Feb 13 puts still valid imo, only at 4% profit now, see a new daily lows in HGG

1007
OIL has broken support marginally as expected, under 100.86,, any rally that stays under 101.50 imo woiuld be bearish, still holding the oil shorts for now

1004
TVIX over 27.03 might get me interested on the long side tvix, maybe sooner, still waiting now for last 5 days

959
still have tlt swing long and TMF,,,tlt still needs to get over same # 119.25ish,,it looks ready to break in coming hours, maybe today or tomorrow,,118.77 last

953
es swing shorts i am waiting,,,for swing shorts, i'm looking at a test of ES 1260-65 area, then a bounce to a lower high on the 60min charts, with smaller candles on 60min and break of small candle support signaling a swing short entry

942
oil now testing Fridays low,,looks breakablve lower

939
AA puts are currently at a 25% loss, but holding them , still expecting lower AA in coming days weeks, and possibly lower tomorrow as AA reports earn today

9:38 AM
SCO up almost 2% this morn, still holding the oil swing shorts.But oil needs to break the 2 existing support levels to "really move" lower

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday thoughts

333
higher dollar should be good for oil shorts

332
83.00 target for DX futures , 81.60 last, in coming days

241
/DX futures US dollar daily chart is buillish, good for uup and EUO

226
TLT bullish next 30-60 mins as long as it stays over 118.50

220
at this time of day, TLT "could" push right thru 119.10 without the usual stall at resist test, watching, 118.90 last

217
100.30 approx oil trgt interim, on break of 100.70

214
TLT now 15 cents from trgt 1 from yest,,,still see same there, with eventual break higher over 119.10

213
OIL now close to testing its daily low for third time intraday,,,still see lower oil

124
67.14 TMF here could work, or TLT 117.76

120
1271 and 1278 intraday ES supp resist levels, a break of either is likely to continue in direction of break

116
TVIX intraday suggesting move to 2580 area test could come,,2515 last

113
a break of 1272 lower would put the 3min ES chart pattern in a down bias for the succeeding 4 candles or 12 min after such break

112
82% confid sell signal, under 1276 is the key for it to remain

110
"IF" the ES breaks under 1270,,could be a wave 3 intraday move lower,,,while break higher over 1276 may give 1282 test,,,bias lower intraday atm,imo

105
TMF (3x treasuries) may do better than SPX shorts,imo

103
if TVIX tests 26.82 it will likiely break it higher, tho may pb first (i have no position)

1259
80% on sell signal ES now at 1274

1256
it is also "coincidentally" yesterdays high,,,interesting how tech analysis matches sometimes

1255
the 3 min hi/low measured trgt on TLT is about 25 cents, which gives TLT intraday trgt of 119.10 on break of 118.85 (118.85+.25=119.10),,,which "just so happens" to be yesterday's posted trgt 1,,they match

1247
78% now at 1273.50

1241
ES intraday sell signal just triggered at 1274.50 ES< at 74% confid

1240
CL oil bear flag broken lower, now backtesting higher

1221
ABOVE the market , if TLT gets over 119.27, might give an "add more TLT long" setup,swing

1220
OIL now testing its low of day,,,can break it this time ,,,watching reactions

1219
imo,,if it clears over 25.50ish is where i see VIX moving quickly higher,,same # as last week

1204
TLT now testing 15min resist,,,expecting break of it for test of 119.10, then still see eventual break over the 119.10

1157
15min chart bear flag on CL oil

1155
oil bounced up to the target area, and has been rejected at new resist,,,still see lower oil for swings

1032
yesterday, CL oil "almost" had one of those reversal days

1031
IF the ES were to hit 1255 today, and then close under 1265ish, it would be a bear key reversal day, with a higher daily high and also lower daily low than yest, with close near the low,,just something to watch

1021
oil now testing its low of day-

1020
if TLT tests 119.10 higher,,,it will likely break higher over it,,,could pullback first and stall, but should break over it afterward, on curr chart patterns daily and 60min, last 118.60

1004
oil could rally to 101.30--101.50 and still be bearish, swing, last 101.12

955
100.97 last,,, oil hit first trgt lower posted yest (101),,,still see lower tho

946
101.18 is an oil fib level, right near there now, may stall

943
101.36 oil now broken :)

941
there goes oil, now 101.36,,,near yesterdays AH support,,,if this break, great for shorts

938
OIL is now again below the 101.75 support level, and sustaining under here gives same lower targets as yest...watching to see if bounces here or goes sideways down

935
AA shorts via puts have recovered part of their loss, now red 15% vs 30% from yest, but they are feb puts so have time..i expect downard movement after AA reports earnings

932
RBN has gapped up nicely on a favorable earn report, still long RBN swing, up about 2.5% from yest close


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thurs thoughts

426
oil falling, now at 101.36 from 101.70 at 4pm

417
watching to see if AA gets a sell the news,after earnings report later,,,still have those puts at curr 30%ish loss,,which is easily offset by 288% profit taken this morn on KSS

414
if CL hits 101 afterhours here, may take some small profits on the oil shorts, since I added to it today...would only take profits on 25-50% of shares

408
hmm CL oil closed right at second entry,,closing just under support on a big red candle can be bearish

258
TLT 60min chart poss bull dbl bottom, inside the 60min bull falling wedge

255
127.40 poss SPY close today

237
FEB puts on USO could work too, tho i'm using SCO

236
FILLED on the additional order shorts,,,broken,

235
its late enough in the day,,,,i'll add to the oil shorts from 103 on a break under 101.70,,,101.77 last

234
amazing how OIL respects its support and resist levels,,, stalled right at .75ish,,,still see break lower for swing tho

231
no bull vol diverg on 15min oil,,it may break lower today

238
watching 101.70 oil trgt,,if it breaks then 99 trg lower on shorts....101.90 last oil

217
HGG Feb 18 2012 13.0 Puts at $1.15 look promising

128
RBN long from other day, is on the move higher now, still holding for swing targets higher

1132
RBN still looks good for long swing, small cap trade

1109
if oil breaks under 101.70 it could quickly fall another 1%,,its holding the test at support for now,,may add more shorts if it breaks 101.70, unsure, still short from 103 via sco

1107
spx and es may follow oil lower soon

1106
oil just had a high vol dump on 3min, last 102.28 from 102.81

1057
on the lower vol smaller stocks, still waiting on KSU long entry, may get one in next 4 hours,also watching RIC JVA

1045
3min later,,theres the 1263 ES break lower :)

1042
if ES breaks under 1263 on 3min chart,,,would put it in a sideways down bias for 9--12 minutes following that

1036
long TLT and TMF will prob outperform SPY ES shorts

1022
ES short scalp here 1265 could work


1014
TLT has clearede 118.60, last 118.92 ,,,watching if it can stay over 118.40

1008
VIX still needs to get over 25.50ish area, same # as yest, before "panic" imo,,last 23.05

1006
in about 1-2 hours,,,TLT will enter a bullish TLT next 4 hours up bias, if current trend continues, on 60min TLT charts,,has not confirmed or entered the bullish phase yet

1004
i continue to believe---watch TLT,,,TLT will almost always win the battle over SPY SPX,,,

949
 thats why i used puts on AA, because earnings is near, limits risk, tho generally i prefer the underlying directly due to options decay,,,but near earnings i tend to use options instead

947
1261 es likely wioll hold here on first test,,, but a rally that doesnt move over 1269ish would be bearish, and 1269ish ES could be an "add shorts" area if it does get there

944
OIL is also down nicely 1% this morn from yest entry, or sco up 2%ish

940
also still long tlt tmf,,,watch if tlt gets over 118.60, same # as yest, last 118.50

938
my AA shorts are red atm tho,,down 26% loss but they are feb puts and have time---on shorts i often like to use options to limit risk

935
from yesterdat, If you took the KSS kohl short via puts, you could sell this morning
for 288% profit....still see lower in coming weeks months but this is at trgt 1

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wede thoughts

340
they finally let KSS up for a little air after pressing all day, last 4739 from 4697 low and 4797 high

336
individ stocks present some good opps for long,,,but i dont like long swing the indices here, spx iwm

335
charts suggest higher TLT in coming days / weeks,,,which will put downward pressure on spx

316
VIX over 25.50 would be cause for concern for SPX bulls, its at 22.26 now, under 25.50ish,more of the same

305
118.30 3min resist has broke higher on TLT

305
a TLT move over 118.60 may see lower ES SPX,,last 118.35 in poss breakout higher on TLT intraday 3min chart

253
KSU has broken 70.50 and has a trgt swing of 78 if it can close over the broken resist for 3 days

252
since 4775 KSS today, they are not letting it up for air, last kohls 4710

233
TLT and ES SPX 3min are both moving higher, watching the inconsistancy....the 3min is intraday so it's diff,,,but swings/long-term,,TLT usually wins the battle over SPY SPX IWM,, as Bond traders are the smartest of all....something to watch

146
OIL short here 102.78 could work, 35.69 SCO 2x

144
FOR SWING,,small caps ideas, all long ideas but not ready yet,,needs either a PB or breakout over resist:  PHM  KSU  BPFH  RIC  PTX  ACHN  JVA 

135
> approx KSS trgts: 44, 42, to start,,,then 30ish

 i plan to use Jan and Apr PUTS for KSS
 
128
SHORT idea: short KSS on a bounce, not ready yet , swing,,could fall hard

1:20 PM
TMF in  add zone here at 66.26, or TLT 118.20, could work for both quick trade and swing

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tues thoughts

1150
50.11---50.13 bought RBN for long swing

1145
bought AA Feb12 9 puts at .53, for swing

1113
no entry yet, but i am considering RBN long swing, warning this is a lower vol stock, nice breakout on RBN over 1 month downtrend R line, but in a 3 month uptrend

1053
also AA has hit the "short zone" posted on thurs,,,i will prob trade that via options PUTS, $9

1035
VZ hit 4048 or one cent over its 4047 trgt posted on friday,,,

10:34
bought TMF 67.90 for swing and scalp both combo,,,is 2x treas

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".