Friday thoughts

338
buying now since it may see 8.60 b4 the close

337
i just bought REDF back again for swing long,,,same stock i took 4% profit on b4,,,see higher REDF

310
1284.25 es was hit, should see its next 1289 trgt now

305
clearly MPEL has more resist at 10.64, simple prior hjigh, if it moves up from here, tho 1097 trgt is above it, may take off half or all of it depending on the close today

305
taking half off from 1278ish here at 1283 would make sense, 5 points profit (i didnt trade it)

305
heres the 1283 es test,,,looks breakable higher,,the scalp long entry from before suggests to watch this area, if it doesnt break higher over 1284, likely pullback

255
MPEL--no conclusive Markt Maker analysis that I can see

253
market maker analysis on ROK suggests they are buying it, despite lower,,,for higher later today or in coming days

250
ES needs over 1284 intraday to move up, imo,,,if 1284 is hit, could see 1289

241
5444 last sap, near 5500 resist, with targets 51.50 and 4800

239
took SAP Mar12 52.5 Put,,using options for this short since SAP reporting soon,
SAP has been on the short list for 4 days now,,,

213
oil is now stuck in the middle of its daily huge range, i'm not trading it here, could go either way, esp given its wild swings lately

157
the 60min chart on MPEL has a bull coil, it has momentum to spring higher if that coil breaks

155
es trying to test 1283,,those who took short scalp would watch reaction there,,,es needs to clear 1284 else lower coming

151
a VXX close over approx 31.25 today would confirm the prior bull morning star, and a close over approx 3225 would confimr yesterdays inverted hammer,,the vxx closes would be bearish for spx swings

134
scalp mpel trgts 2 and 3 are up higher at 1060 and 1097

134
MPEL scalps could take 1% prodfit here, near trgt 1,,,,swings i'm holding longer

129
ROK fell asleep :( tho still over its entry price

102
VXX swing is starting to look v promising now, nice daily candles, for coming balstoff higher,,may take days but thats fine

1249
the es scalp setup triggered,,,i'm not trading it,,,

1240
MPEL scalp or swing here 1036 could work

1240
ES scalp above mrkt at 1278.50 could work,,this one i might trade, unsure

1231
3min candle count suggests waiting just a bit b4 scalp

1230
this would be about the time for that ES scalp here at 1278,,,conserv would scalp over 1279.50

1225
if es can get over 1284, it may test 1289/90,,,still dont see a long swing tho, only scalp

1217
ES needs to clear 1284 on the next bounce else its in trouble, and will see lower

1216
i'm not taking the scalp, just throwing out ideas

1215
es hit 1278 trgt and held support there

1215
here is that second lower low we expected on es 3min,,,if it bases, then a long scalp may present

1208
when ROk gets back over .72, should make a run for its highs at 8014, then new highs

1208
they are trying to form a bull Inv HS on the es 3min chart

1207
we have the first smaller candle on es 3min,,prob one more 3min chart low, that would be scalpable long,,not suggesting swing long

1203
poss 1277 support on ES,intraday only on 3min charts

1202
heres the 3min pullback from resist,,,when the candles start to base, it could make a scalp now swing, long

1146
tho i still prefer individ stocks over es

1145
ABOVE the mkt long 1284 could work, es sclp

1144
1283 ES 15min resist test coming here,,,may stall sideways or lower

1143
active traders wouldve bought bak ROK at 7975 as it backtest its breakout out

1140
ROK hit 8015 and pulled back to 7977,,,as expected,,,still see higher ROK later tho,,,why we took off some at 8014 trgt

1137
we got advance warning yesterday of today's selloff in ES --remeber those small 15min candles on the way up? often it falls kinda hard afterward

1135
took off half of ROK scalp portion at the 8014 trgt,,,still see higher,,about 1.6% profit from entry this morn

1130
ROK 7997 lsat,,,been trying to get over 80,,i think it will do so,,pop to 8014 then mayb stall again

1119
TLT TMF took 7 days to do it but it hit its first trgt

1118
theres goes TLT and TMF,,,my stop was hit as expected, took profits, and will look to buy it back swing at lower price,later

1110
ES longs, scalp only not swing, may present but i'd wait a bit for a 3min chart pullback,,,i prob wont trade it since the individ stocks like ROK are outperforming spx

1106
allowing a little room for a pop higher, else i'm out of TMF TLT for now

1105
raising stop on TMF to 71.19,,v v tight,, will prob get stopped out to take profit, and will try to buy again lower,,,TLT is right near resist here and is at trgt 1,,so i dont want to lose profit on it

1058
ROK has done it---broke over yesterdays high as expected,,still holding it

1057
if MPEL hits 1099 today i will sell again second time to take profit, and look again to reenter

1054
ROK is now just 16-20 cents away from yesterdays high, 79.54 last

1052
MPEL fell about 2% from entry, and has now bounce back to entry breakeven,,nervous would exit here,,i remain long mpel for now, swing, and will take profits today if it moves

1049
looking to short NRGY on a bounce, not yet

1049
rok already testing its daily high, and close to yest hi test

1043
DBA--agriculture, is approaching swing buy zone, but no entry, yet

1042
STD at impt place here,,if it breaks 6.90 and then breaks 6.80, the PUTS should do well,,,still have not moved much since entry

1033
raising stop on TMF to 70.69,,if stopped out i will take profits and buy back lower,,,TLT and TMF should fall further if stopped, tho still see higher later even if stopped

1028
while MPEL has fallen since entry,,,MPEL is much more volatile

1028
there goes rok :)

1027
TLT===imo the first 60min pullback will be bought, so not taking tlt or tmf profits, has not even started a pb yet

1025
ROK 15min chart is bullish vs ES 15min chart,,still see higher rok

1021
if TLT breaks over 122.22,,,then "wee" will come for TLT TMF imo,,tho stall at 121.70ish expected

1019
vxx up now nicely from 3097 post, last 3214,,,vxx call may give 300-400% before they r done

1014
tza idea up 3.2% from yest close,,,make sense to tighten stops here, or take profit and reenter

1012
this looks bad on es,,,i still think it will bounce and the bounce will be shortable,,,why waiting on the short instead of shorting weakness under 1278

1007
for now, i will NOT take the ES 1278 short below the mkt

1002
despite SPX, i'm looking for ROC and MPEL to make new highs,, plan to add shorts in some stocks later today perhaps

952
yesterday I posted that TLT closed well, holding the 119.30,,,TL:T up nicely this morning at 121.15 last,,,TMF up also

948
bought back ROK 78.80 long


945
back in MPEL long 10.40,

926
if oil can climb back to 100, may be a good short swing opp or even poss daytrade, but curr below 9850 at 9821 last

917
agressive could scalp long here, but scalp only, as a "buy support" trade,,,i'm not taking it

916
if ES hits 1278, i may jump on short, below the market, into weakness not strength,,but preferably es will bounce and then get smaller sideways candles, and then enter a short up higher

915
es "looks bad" now at 1281, but likely will bounce from this area even if it goes a bit lower,,,failure to bounce would be bad for bulls and could intiate stronger than expected selling,,,still see lower ES later

906
if you took the TZA trade at yest close, or AH yest, its now at 2.2% profit, halfway to the 4% trgt1,,,could take partial profits here

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".