Thurs thoughts

400
4pm swing signal update: def will NOT get an exit upro spx long signal tomorrow

339
ES looks like it may want to move up into the close now if it can get over 1521
1520 last

248
if TLT keeps selling into its 3pm bond close time, spx likely to bounce back up again

247
look at that wedge on DX us dollar 3min chart

232
tza 1042 may see...in 3--30 minutes
MM raised the ask again in russle

210
LOL the TNA is out performing XIV: who woulda thunk it?

148
b8ullish volume diverg forming in SLV: compare todays volume to 2/20 vol....lower vol today on an equiv/lower low,daily chart

147
a look at the 3min chart of DX us dollar shows todays move up is on very low volume. first, the daily volume is low. and more impt, the 3min chart shows most of the volume is on the downside with that big red candle, even tho the daily shows green it misrepersents

144
TNA 8056 is trgt after 7967...maybe it will go for that

143
i CANCELLED the order to sell TNA since it was missed by pennies. i will do it manually. it may overshoot the .67,,,,

130
normally i'd just exit here a few pennies from the lim order,,but it will prob go over it, so keeping it there for now

127
7970 TNA is MM sell level...so may get a fill soon on the tna exit from this morn buy

124
tna now just 35 cents from trgt...watching if lim order is hit

121
1046 next tza

121
there it is, tza  •• this is what happens when MM step aside

118
MM stepped off selling just a bit here in russl

118
1050 tza poss within 21 minutes, mayb 6min

104
60min silver put in a bullish reversal candle...silver may reverse up now...over the candle low silver is now considered bullish, but this would be early unconfirmed entry long

1259
DX now at 8187--watching if its rejected here or not,, if not then more chop prb

1250
it "looks like" the MM are taking profits on their longs here, sellking them, and then try to buy back at 1512ish ES....they have a nice profit so maybe doing that...does NOT look like they r shorting but hard to tell

1248
i am a bit concerned and cautious here in XIV because strangely MM are actually selling gently into this spx and russel, tho its drifting higher...not sure what they have in mind...but Inv Banks still waiting above to sell,,,same Inv Bank levles as b4

1247
under 81.87 DX us dollar bearish intraday...above that chop

1240
TNA and XIV...same limit orders to exit for now, no changes

1239
DX hit 8190 trgt bounce and reversed nicely...still same trgt lower as b4. the dollar is behaving

1228
that is above todays high, obviously there is resist at todays high in xiv,,,will watch reaction there

1228
XIV moving nicely now, up 2% from entry hour ago...but i have a  lim order set to sell it at 21.47....may sell b4 then but i have that order in to "catch" a surge

1205
but Investment banks buy level on tza is 1030, same as yest, so the bigger guys are waiting "up there" in russl or down there in tza

1205
MM "want" to buy 1512 ES if they can, not sure it makes it down there

1205
hmm...MM again gently selling into this russel here...cant surge until they raise the ask...and this COULD push it lower...watching carefully here...still think they will raise the ask but i dont like to go "against" then for too long...but its noon time so "safer"

1202
DS hit 8184 trgt and bounced, now looking for it to stay under 8192 on the bounce...if it reverses lower at 8192 then 8180 trgt...again numbers look tite but thats the dollar atm

1157
look at 15min SPY chart from today: see big green candle followed by 5 small red ones that stay within the green? its a bullish pattern, similar to the japanese rising/falling 3 methods...is a continuation higher pattern not a reversal pattern

spy is trying to break out of pattern now but it takes a few tries sometimes

1146
expecting dollar DX to drift to 8184/8180....does not sound like a lot but dollar moves much less pennies...when it gets there, may be opp to exit xiv tna scalps...will see...later dollar should go under that, but prob stall there first

1132
: look at 3min chart XIX: see the second lower low?
buy the second low, sell the second high...works in all timeframes

1128
as expected..MM just raised the ask...can go up now

1127
MM sell levels set near here...they are selling a little now..but i think they will raise them...will see..but stall here unless they raise the ask


1124
today is the first day where the signal said "may give an exit signal tomorrow"..... often theres a final surge b4 the exit, 1-3 days...thats why the system requires the conditions to be met, and will never exit until at least the end of the prior day, sometimes longer

1106
moments later...XIV up 1% from entry...holding for higher trgts of course

1103
Look at US dollar: surge then rejection: expecting higher XIV as a result. also spy near 15min support another reason for xiv, among others

1056
1500 shrs xiv large port vse, 500 small port


1056
long 500 shares XIV

1050
US dollar UUP DX going balistic now...it should slow down.... when it does, can buy more metals gdx nugt etc

one of the simplest yet most effective tools is to use the US Dollar to "confirm" any trades in SPX oil gold silver bonds: if US dollars says "short" and metals says "long" it has much better success rate... simple but effective... broken record i know...just never know who is new in the room

us dollar is DX futuers, and UUP etf

1044
4pm swing system update: the system will definitely NOT give an exit signal on the UPRO spx long today, but it MIGHT give an exit signal tomorrow at 4pm...wont know until tomorrow...it could be tomorrow or in a few days...the UPRO entry is currently in nice profit zone on it

1023
active traders could take gains on tna 7900 resist for a quick 1% profit,,vse port is holding it for now for  7967

1010
i have lim order to take profit on tna at 79.67 if filled

959
MM have been raising the bid and ask in russel, which prompted my early entry for tna


957
 vse port:  long 300 shrs TNA..may add more later

954
i'm likely to buy TNA for scalp if it pulls back and goes sideways, will watch for entry, prob near the tza sell levels


949
MM tza levels 1040/1065...its normal for them to change like this in the first hour
im not buying or shorting tza those levels but will watch reaction there and then mayb take position

946
tza MM levels: 1040 buy 1070 sell, changed


945
vse port has 34% gain in 4 months including all losses and including unrealized losses, part time trading...trying for 100-200% net gain this yr

939
NUGT  UCO  USLV are all valid here to buy at these prices for swing trades imo...they are in vse port near these levels (a little red now so this actualy better price now)...i'd buy all threee to diversify not just 1

fwiw: vse 100k port has: 3000 shares NUGT, 1500 UCO, 1500 USLV...divide by three for smaller port

the dollar amounts invested in NUGT  UCO  USLV are NOT the same for each though, that's on purpose


933
watch the us dollar DX   UUP... 15min and 60m candles...dollar is up now...i expect it to go sideways up...when candles get smaller on 15min...may present some daytrade opps in metals oil gold...but letting the dollar settle down a lil since a lil higher would be normal

932
: Market Maker numbers for TZA: 1050 buy 1090 sell
if TZA hits 1087--1094 i may short tza (tna long)

Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:

http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

188% gain Performance results for the 4:00 PM Swing Trading System

 Below are performance results for my 4:00 PM Swing Trading System.  All trades hypothetical. No guarantees made. I present this only to show "one" of the tools that I use when swing trading the SPY UPRO SPXU.

This system is "easy" to use, and does not generate better returns than trading a non-automated system (such as trades in the vse.marketwatch.com port). But this is easy to use since it only enters and exits trades at 4 PM, and gives better returns than money in a savings account or CD.
 

All trades were made at the close (4:00 PM Eastern Time).

A commission of $7 per trade was deducted from the gain ($14 round trip)

Starting capital of $100,123 was used. This strategy also works with $25,000 instead.

A flat amount of $100,123 was used for each trade. Gains would be higher if the gains were “re-invested” …

...and each trade was at 100% of account value

Results: 188% net gain and $188,208 profit with account value starting from 100,123 to 288,331 40 winners, 10 losers, 80% winners, max consecutive winners = 10, max consecutive losers =1

Symbol	Signal	Date	Action	Quantity	Price	Gain	Gain %	Acct Value	Cumm Gain %	Cumm Gain $
upro	OPEN	2/20/2013	Buy	954	104.87	0	0	288,331	188	188,208
upro	CLOSE	2/4/2013	Sell	983	101.44	-397	-0.4	288,331	188	188,208
upro	OPEN	1/31/2013	Buy	983	101.83	0	0	288,729	188	188,606
upro	CLOSE	1/7/2013	Sell	1196	94.75	13,238	13.23	288,729	188	188,606
upro	OPEN	12/28/2012	Buy	1196	83.67	0	0	275,491	175	175,368
upro	CLOSE	12/19/2012	Sell	1166	90.07	4,895	4.89	275,491	175	175,368
upro	OPEN	12/14/2012	Buy	1166	85.86	0	0	270,596	170	170,473
upro	CLOSE	12/10/2012	Sell	1181	86.7	2,313	2.31	270,596	170	170,473
upro	OPEN	12/3/2012	Buy	1181	84.73	0	0	268,284	168	168,161
upro	CLOSE	11/27/2012	Sell	1267	82.98	5,041	5.04	268,284	168	168,161
upro	OPEN	11/8/2012	Buy	1267	78.99	0	0	263,242	163	163,119
upro	CLOSE	11/2/2012	Sell	1126	85.41	-3,910	-3.91	263,242	163	163,119
upro	OPEN	10/19/2012	Buy	1126	88.87	0	0	267,152	167	167,029
upro	CLOSE	10/18/2012	Sell	1103	93.77	3,306	3.3	267,152	167	167,029
upro	OPEN	10/9/2012	Buy	1103	90.76	0	0	263,846	164	163,723
upro	CLOSE	10/5/2012	Sell	1102	94.46	4,014	4.01	263,846	164	163,723
upro	OPEN	9/25/2012	Buy	1102	90.81	0	0	259,833	160	159,710
upro	CLOSE	9/10/2012	Sell	1201	88.34	5,979	5.97	259,833	160	159,710
upro	OPEN	8/23/2012	Buy	1201	83.35	0	0	253,854	154	153,731
upro	CLOSE	8/8/2012	Sell	1278	83.1	6,108	6.1	253,854	154	153,731
upro	OPEN	8/1/2012	Buy	1278	78.31	0	0	247,746	147	147,623
upro	CLOSE	6/28/2012	Sell	1422	70.84	626	0.63	247,746	147	147,623
upro	OPEN	6/21/2012	Buy	1422	70.39	0	0	247,120	147	146,997
upro	CLOSE	6/20/2012	Sell	1472	75.44	10,923	10.91	247,120	147	146,997
upro	OPEN	6/11/2012	Buy	1472	68.01	0	0	236,197	136	136,074
upro	CLOSE	6/7/2012	Sell	1583	68.95	9,057	9.05	236,197	136	136,074
upro	OPEN	6/1/2012	Buy	1583	63.22	0	0	227,140	127	127,017
upro	CLOSE	5/30/2012	Sell	1223	68.8	-15,950	-15.94	227,140	127	127,017
upro	OPEN	5/3/2012	Buy	1223	81.83	0	0	243,090	143	142,967
upro	CLOSE	4/13/2012	Sell	1311	78.23	2,477	2.48	243,090	143	142,967
upro	OPEN	4/10/2012	Buy	1311	76.33	0	0	240,613	140	140,490
upro	CLOSE	12/28/2011	Sell	1748	59.27	3,513	3.51	240,613	140	140,490
upro	OPEN	12/8/2011	Buy	1748	57.25	0	0	237,100	137	136,977
upro	CLOSE	12/2/2011	Sell	1720	58.62	708	0.71	237,100	137	136,977
upro	OPEN	11/16/2011	Buy	1720	58.2	0	0	236,391	136	136,268
upro	CLOSE	11/14/2011	Sell	1753	60.21	5,420	5.41	236,391	136	136,268
upro	OPEN	11/9/2011	Buy	1753	57.11	0	0	230,971	131	130,848
upro	CLOSE	11/4/2011	Sell	1789	60.69	8,466	8.46	230,971	131	130,848
upro	OPEN	11/1/2011	Buy	1789	55.95	0	0	222,505	122	122,382
upro	CLOSE	10/31/2011	Sell	1730	60.84	5,159	5.15	222,505	122	122,382
upro	OPEN	10/25/2011	Buy	1730	57.85	0	0	217,347	117	117,224
upro	CLOSE	10/7/2011	Sell	2182	48.52	5,746	5.74	217,347	117	117,224
upro	OPEN	9/30/2011	Buy	2182	45.88	0	0	211,600	111	111,477
upro	CLOSE	9/27/2011	Sell	1985	51.25	1,614	1.61	211,600	111	111,477
upro	OPEN	9/21/2011	Buy	1985	50.43	0	0	209,986	110	109,863
upro	CLOSE	9/8/2011	Sell	1927	53.33	2,645	2.64	209,986	110	109,863
upro	OPEN	9/2/2011	Buy	1927	51.95	0	0	207,341	107	107,218
upro	CLOSE	8/25/2011	Sell	2180	50.16	9,229	9.22	207,341	107	107,218
upro	OPEN	8/19/2011	Buy	2180	45.92	0	0	198,112	98	97,989
upro	CLOSE	8/16/2011	Sell	1323	55.22	-27,016	-27	198,112	98	97,989
upro	OPEN	7/27/2011	Buy	1323	75.63	0	0	225,128	125	125,005
upro	CLOSE	7/25/2011	Sell	1276	81.37	3,737	3.73	225,128	125	125,005
upro	OPEN	7/11/2011	Buy	1276	78.43	0	0	221,391	121	121,268
upro	CLOSE	6/15/2011	Sell	1287	69.11	-11,185	-11.17	221,391	121	121,268
upro	OPEN	6/1/2011	Buy	1287	77.79	0	0	232,576	132	132,453
upro	CLOSE	5/20/2011	Sell	1246	81.01	846	0.85	232,576	132	132,453
upro	OPEN	5/16/2011	Buy	1246	80.32	0	0	231,730	131	131,607
upro	CLOSE	3/22/2011	Sell	1346	73.96	-525	-0.53	231,730	131	131,607
upro	OPEN	3/10/2011	Buy	1346	74.34	0	0	232,256	132	132,133
upro	CLOSE	3/4/2011	Sell	1311	78.98	3,473	3.47	232,256	132	132,133
upro	OPEN	3/1/2011	Buy	1311	76.32	0	0	228,783	129	128,660
upro	CLOSE	2/9/2011	Sell	1406	79	10,940	10.93	228,783	129	128,660
upro	OPEN	1/28/2011	Buy	1406	71.21	0	0	217,842	118	117,719
upro	CLOSE	8/19/2010	Sell	2241	42.84	-4,093	-4.09	217,842	118	117,719
upro	OPEN	8/11/2010	Buy	2241	44.66	0	0	221,935	122	121,812
upro	CLOSE	7/27/2010	Sell	2394	47.66	13,967	13.95	221,935	122	121,812
upro	OPEN	7/16/2010	Buy	2394	41.82	0	0	207,968	108	107,845
upro	CLOSE	7/15/2010	Sell	2181	45.59	-690	-0.69	207,968	108	107,845
upro	OPEN	6/22/2010	Buy	2181	45.9	0	0	208,658	108	108,535
upro	CLOSE	6/14/2010	Sell	2460	45.4	11,548	11.53	208,658	108	108,535
upro	OPEN	6/7/2010	Buy	2460	40.7	0	0	197,110	97	96,987
upro	CLOSE	6/4/2010	Sell	2307	42.46	-2,181	-2.18	197,110	97	96,987
upro	OPEN	6/1/2010	Buy	2307	43.4	0	0	199,291	99	99,168
upro	CLOSE	5/28/2010	Sell	2294	45.59	4,482	4.48	199,291	99	99,168
upro	OPEN	5/20/2010	Buy	2294	43.63	0	0	194,809	95	94,686
upro	CLOSE	4/30/2010	Sell	1677	60.11	674	0.67	194,809	95	94,686
upro	OPEN	4/27/2010	Buy	1677	59.7	0	0	194,136	94	94,013
upro	CLOSE	2/19/2010	Sell	2311	49.17	13,496	13.48	194,136	94	94,013
upro	OPEN	2/4/2010	Buy	2311	43.32	0	0	180,639	80	80,516
upro	CLOSE	2/3/2010	Sell	1987	47.7	-5,319	-5.31	180,639	80	80,516
upro	OPEN	1/21/2010	Buy	1987	50.37	0	0	185,959	86	85,836
upro	CLOSE	1/11/2010	Sell	1993	54.72	8,955	8.95	185,959	86	85,836
upro	OPEN	12/31/2009	Buy	1993	50.22	0	0	177,004	77	76,881
upro	CLOSE	12/29/2009	Sell	2088	51.82	8,102	8.1	177,004	77	76,881
upro	OPEN	12/17/2009	Buy	2088	47.93	0	0	168,902	69	68,779
upro	CLOSE	12/15/2009	Sell	2072	49.44	2,348	2.35	168,902	69	68,779
upro	OPEN	12/3/2009	Buy	2072	48.3	0	0	166,554	66	66,431
upro	CLOSE	11/11/2009	Sell	2166	48.18	4,231	4.23	166,554	66	66,431
upro	OPEN	10/21/2009	Buy	2166	46.22	0	0	162,323	62	62,200
upro	CLOSE	10/8/2009	Sell	2507	44.32	10,999	10.99	162,323	62	62,200
upro	OPEN	10/1/2009	Buy	2507	39.93	0	0	151,323	51	51,200
upro	CLOSE	9/29/2009	Sell	2392	43.77	4,595	4.59	151,323	51	51,200
upro	OPEN	9/25/2009	Buy	2392	41.84	0	0	146,729	47	46,606
upro	CLOSE	9/11/2009	Sell	2743	41.68	14,222	14.21	146,729	47	46,606
upro	OPEN	9/1/2009	Buy	2743	36.49	0	0	132,507	32	32,384
upro	CLOSE	8/24/2009	Sell	2891	39.68	14,586	14.57	132,507	32	32,384
upro	OPEN	8/17/2009	Buy	2891	34.63	0	0	117,921	18	17,798
upro	CLOSE	8/14/2009	Sell	2764	37.41	3,275	3.27	117,921	18	17,798
upro	OPEN	8/11/2009	Buy	2764	36.22	0	0	114,646	15	14,523
upro	CLOSE	7/16/2009	Sell	3737	30.68	14,523	14.51	114,646	15	14,523
upro	OPEN	7/2/2009	Buy	3737	26.79	0	0	0	0	0

Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:

http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

wedn thoughts

918 PM
US dollar futures DX continue to look vulnerable to break lower...if so could see SPY gap up in the morn

400
 look where tza ended  •..exactly at 1071

354
1071 tza trgt resist

352
i am closing all my vxx uvxy shorts and xiv today.

341
now stepped down to 1510 again...they r stepping in fast then moving away...so wont keep typing all this detail

340
MM buying russle now

336
 this is STILL not MM buying here...this is what they do..they start the push and then step away

335
i exited the UVXY in the vse port because they dont do AH trading...real profit will be higher than vse but hard to do limit order in vse, and cant "fix it" at 4:15pm since they dont allow trading AH

330
MM dropped bit to 1510 ES......**** watch....i might get stopped on vxx

324
MM have their buy level set at 1513 ES now...1 point under 3min support

323
2070 protective stop put in for XIV in case of sudden surge...same for uvxy and vxx...protecting 22% gains

315
when they are buying at the highs it is hard to believe, but we see the result,,,higher highs

314
imo its very helpful to see that market maker and inv bank activity....sometimes its wrong but generally helpful imo

309
very weak bounce on VXX so far...tho still has time to bounce...thus far continuing bearish for the 2260 lower

303
1514 dropped bid MM.  1514 dropped bid MM

301
nothing wrong with taking xiv or vxx profits here, uvxy 18%ish but i'll hold it longer

301
VXX has declined to the 2300 trgt...now the reaction is v impt....it should bounce but SIZE of bounce should tell us how it will close

259
tza is at support here and it looks breakable,,,brake should send it down to 1030

257
they are trying to stopp a move to 1514 es...which is so close to here...amazing...they could pull bid anytime of course, but curr setup is protecting the 1514. last 1516

255
MM are buying the russel right now. at this price. crazy but its there

250
i still expect VXX to break todays low and make a new low, 2260 trgt...thus far it acted exactly according to pattern with a bounce at 23, now should break 23

245
still trying for that vxx 2260 trgt,,,if so will prob take gain in the vxx short and xiv longs
and uvxy short also, UVXY down a whopping 14.6% today, good for shorts in uvxy


240
for the 4pm swing system: SPY must close higher than today else it will not get an exit long upro signal until at friday. if it goes higher today in spy, then an exit signal to take profits might come tomorrow instead. in any event, an exit signal today is impossible in the system, tho theres nothing wrong with taking profits after a day like today.

215
notice how ES surged, with that US dollar drop. inverse.

211
US Dollar may be making its expected move now...big red candle here

152
added 600 shares UCO to vse port

132
cancelled order to short more vxx...was not filled... will do manually later

125
after some sideways on dollar, expecting lower

125
the dollar should move sideways now on 15min chart,if not its weaker than it should be, and a lil higher would not compromise expecting lower later...but again all within a bull flag daily expected to form

123
idea: before trading ES  SPY Russel iwm tna tza metals oil.... look at dollar and euro charts first, esp the dollar...trade has a much better chance if the us dollar charts confirm the trade....relationship is inverse DX:SPX

122
next 4 candles on 15min chart of us dollar DX>..watching...sideways or bit higher would be ok...then lower

114
limit order to short VXX at 24.63---dont know if it will get there, its above 2400 trtg to short...may change it later

109
remember: VXX we expected 2300ish test, then bounce (doing now), then under 2300....market maker and charts support the trade, no guarantees of course

1259
MM like silver here at 2803

1256
vxx: look for pb on vxxx, then higher hi on the 3min chart over .50....may present short opp vxx or long xiv scalp

1255
XIV may present another buying opp...none yet but may present,,,or short vxx...waiting,,,same trgts as b4

1234
*2783

1233
silver 3min looks bad but MM bought some,,,now they will try to buy 2793

1232
MM sold VXX down here,,gentle but they sold it

1229
3min RSI on the DX dollar futures...making a lower low here,,,could push down the dollar intraday,,higher spx silver oil xiv, lower vxx

1223
this is impt and tricky area here at ES 1311ish resist...watching it close...anything can happen...not often drastic at 1230 but one never knows....

1219
wow daily look at spy volume so low at least so far

1214
NUGT nearing 2% gain from entry this morn...this is where scalpers would look to exit (in a bit not yet) and swing would hold. conserv scalp would exit on resist hit, aggressive scalp would wait lil longer to see if resist breaks higher

1213
GDX nearing its resist,,watching reactino there,,,still a lil higher to resist gdx 3858...

1205
notice the 3min stoch 14,3,3 on spy ES?
.
no guarantees...but USUALLY when the 3min stoch like that, so overbought for so long. it means not much pb will come. it looks overbought,,,but thats a character of "trend day". also notice the 60min stoch is no where near being overbought, so plenty of room for sideways up. often it wont pb at all more than 2 points, on such days

1158
ES is now right in the 1511 resist area...watching to see if big pb or just sideways / wedge up
if it does go lower, may present a buying opp....will see

1152
also 60m chart UUP  DX says lower dollar

1151
DX   UUP daily looks like it wants to form a bull flag: its a bullish pattern BUT BUT it means lower first...which would mean higher spx metals...then see what dollar does after the flag forms

1151
i might short vxx at 2400 area..or xix there, unsure...still have vxx from 8.5% higher,,this would be an additino scalp...

the first bounce on 3min chart of vxx "should" get sold, but will see what chart looks like, may or may not enter

usually a drop in bid like that: it will still stall at 2300 but then break to 2260...usually

1143
they've dropped it...bullish for spx, xiv,,,bearish vxx

1137
BTW,,,the VIX  vxx xiv MM and Investment Bank levels are all "derived" values, only 1 derivation tho....nonetheless derived means they are less accurate than the "real" values for spx silver oil etc.....the VIX levels are trickier since its not representing anything real or physical so i have to derive them

1136
if US dollar looked more bullish i'd exit the vxx here but i'm holding now....watching tho

1135
VXX invesment bank buy level is 23.10...will watch reaction there if it gets there, and may stall and bounce,,,watching the MM and INV BANK reports now closely

1132
watching to see if nugt gets there, and reactino: stall? blast thru it higher?
atm, stall expected...

1132
nugt trgt 1 is 604 for scalp not swing part

1102
i'm leaving room to add to both uslv and nugt

1054
if/when DX gets to resist..if it can get a lil higher, i'll prob buy nugt...still waiting...nugt and uslv should act similarly

1046
BTW...fo those trading XIV...it is quite NORMAL for it to go UP much slower than down...but the up can go on and on longer than the quick down

1040
4pm signal swing...there is NO WAY it will give an exit signal today to take profits on long UPRO....it requires certain conditinos to last "overnight" and those conditions have not been met...hence impossible

1037
i saw market makers doing stuff in silver gold and us dollar...why i bought some silver a bit early....will add more silver if it pulls back,,,also looking at nugt gdx on pb but waiting

1031
 bought SLV  USLV
"paid premium" for silver and bought above the 2803 limit order...cancled lim order and bought here

1025
lim buy silver 28.03 if filled

1020
MM ghave not changed their silver buy sell levels tho, so i'll wait out the silver buy,,,might miss it

1019
its breaking...dollar...we could see a big candle in the metals and spx in next 1--60 minutes

1018
hmm us dollar just got high vol sell rite into support...will support crack soon on the dollar? if so, higher spx, higher oil metals

 but rule says respect supp until broken..watching.  the high vol is dangerous for dollar tho and suggests it may break lower...daily is still to high on dollar imo and need pb

1016
VXX trade up 5% from afterhours short last nite...still holding it for lower vxx, higher gains

1012
a lower low on GDX or SLV 3min chart, followed by basing,,will setup a long and i will enter if it presents,,,will consider entering without a lower low if it goes sideways long enough,,,but the "buy second low, sell second high" strat would be better if able

1011
CANCELLED order for USO buy....will re-eval later...never got a fill

1005
GDX NUGT re-entry may present, but waiting on that one too,,,,gdx may go to 38 even lower first

1004
4 more candle on silver chart may present another long opp on slv

1004
timing analysis: 60 mionute spx chart is on upward bis for next 4-12 trading hours cash, and buy any dips on small candle basing dip if they present

956
my plan is to hold XIV swing until 1. i get an exit upro long signal from 4pm system,,, or 2. it surges to 21 or 22is, whichever comes first

953
AXP is a dow jones component, with a nice daily chart, and the dow is stronger than spx and russell lately

952
AXP long scalp may setup today but since its scalp would need 500 or 1000 or more shares for that trade....but i like axp daily....its also a good swing trade with 100 shares or more

947
the us dollar is at or near support here and may bounce a lil ,,,sending oil and silver lower

945
simple plan for upro: was to buy at ES 1490 if it hit that, it was ES overnite low,,,but only was valid at open,,,didnt hit so i cancelled order

945
i have CANCELLED upro order now...will re-eval, and might not want it "down there"

944
i have LOWERED my lim order to buiy uso at 3307 instead of 3320 now

938
LOL i missed my USO order to buy by only one penny: 3321 vs 3320....but leaving order for now not chasing, since already have some oil swing, and also oil may still go lower

y: hate when that happens, but at open it moves so fast

934
MM have USO buy level at 33.10 so it may break yest low briefly, watching...will still buy the 3320 if filled, and maybe add more at lower prices

928
i have these orders for now, if they are filled: lim buy 33.20 USO, lim buy UPRO 100.70

922
i will prob buy oil USO UCO at CL 92.00 and UPRO at ES 1390. it might happen in the first few minutes of trading. if so i'll just post "in oil" or "in upro"

Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:

http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tues thoughts

420
btw i just SHORTED the VXX afterhours here, scalp or swing...it popped up nice

343
exited XIV 2.44% gain in 30 minutes on xiv scalp,,,,holding the swing still

340
nice 1.5% pop in XIV since re-entry :) ...might take the scalp piece off today and keep the swing portion

326
18.87 xiv could go lower if ES does the 1490 setup, but decided to buy some here, room to add more later,mayb

320
long xiv again

314
MM now selling silver...switched...BUT prob only selling a lil so they can buy at trgt

313
y: .32 and .35 MM silver buy level fluctuating
coommon at this hour time

303
if ES sees 1497 before 1490 it would be bullish for es,,,a test of 1490 and stall there would present a poss buying opp long scalp in it, but it may not give the setup

y: below 1490 becomes bearish


254
XIV scalp opp reentry may present if ES gets 1490...watching.. but this would be a swing/scalp combo...must be willing to hold overnight

123
also compare daily chart of axp (a dow compon) to spy: AXP stronger

123
long AXP at test of support. scalp

116
still have oil, exited both swings and scalps in uslv slv nugt gdx...may buy them back later for eithre swing or scalp...also looking to poss re-buy XIV scalp/swing again today

silver may not let me back in tho....i think its going higher, just didnt want to sacrifice profit since its been sideways a bit intraday...if i used a tight stop lower it prob would just get hit and reverse, so exited

115
also the 72% long scalp alert from 1203 pm today gave a 6 point profit,,,,

110
 took 6-8% gains each on nugt uslv...will reeval later entry
exited postions

1203
72% long scalp signal rang es 1487

1203
added xiv,scalp piece not swing

1120
silver just hit its posted 2840 trgt,

1119
as ex[pected,,, GDX broke over the 3900 this time, nice for nugt :)


1020
GDX hit the 39 trgt, closed the NUGT GDX there as posted via limit order 2 days ago...then bought it back 3825 gdx

Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:

http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday thoughts

326
GDX is at its trgt posted yest...considering it hit, tho i'll hold the NUGT a bit longer here....think it may overshoot

311
excellent movement in the NUGT 3min chart as we enter the last hour

257
dollar starting to move lower, uslv nugt higher,,,and xiv higher....

158
ES just hit 1503 trgt...watching reaction here too see what it does at thiss support level

1249
Just got a fill on UVXY...watching now

1246
i have an order to SHORT the UVXY stop mrkt 10.23, last 10.35... will still consider the short at ES 1503 too...initial position UVXY to swing as explained above

good for today only

1235
this short UVXY could work here now as initial entry,,,just waiting since i have so many other open positions

for SWING, the uvxy,,or take quick scalp profit if it moves sooner but valid to hold overnite...not tooo long

1234
if ES hits 1503, i might short UVXY (or long xiv)

1214
GDX sell levels: Market maker 3880 and Investment Bank 3950...those might change but are "near" the prior establ 3900ish trgtr....but the Inv Bank level has me thinking its poss to blow thru the first trgt, for 3950 instead

1213
yea i'm looking to exit NUGT when GDX hit 3900ish then may re-enter, BUT i do not have a limit order set to sell it...i want to see reaction,,,the gdx and nugt so volatile they can blast rite thru trgts...but prob a stall there imo

1200
 DX at resist...eventually the DX will pull back and ES back up,,,a minor new high in dx was expected and we are seeing the reaction in the move lower in ES here today

1156
if XIV or UVXY can slow down a bit then i may take positions in those, either swing or scalp...would be a long XIV or short UVXY, but no entry yet just watching...waiting for smaller candles in ES SPY first b4 any XIV

1154
: 4pm swing system says there is 80% chance that ES SPX will move back up and end the UPRO green when the exit signal comes...posted record on 4pm system other day of 82% wins since 2007

this current price is valid for the 4pm swing long ES SPX UPRO tho it triggered the other day

1121
spy 3min chart has a stoch dbl bottom with bull price divergence, so higher spy ES likely, even  if spy pb again here on 3m

1118
TNA scalp position has turned green...watching this one carefully now and may do an early exit and re-evaluation....

1112
USLV waking up, nice green candel in 3min, already is up 3% today so far

1110
added tna again

1103
i would not be surprised to see the DX  UUP make a marginal new 5 day high today, to be followed by a pullback,

1100
72% long ES scalp alert close to ringing here..not yet but close, 1512 es

1056
silver should have moved lower with the rise today in US dollar, but it has not. this suggests higher silver when the dollar goes lower again....relative strength in silver, so keeping the 3x USLV.. US Dollar now testing resistance

1033
DX and UUP 15min candle also suggesting higher es tna bounce

1029
3min chart es tna looks a lil ugly but imo they will bounce

1028
added tna. 2 of poss 4 entries

1013
my market maker reports show that MM are buying iwm here, and tza has its lower posted targets. thats one reason why i bought tna here, although i only did a starter size positino because it is "up here"

1010
TNA long. inititial position in tna to scalp, toward the tza targets lower and tna higher. may add more later since this is just initial position.

944
4pm swing system for SPX long UPRO SPY: It will NOT give an exit signal to take profits on the long today, but it might give an exit signal tomorrow or wednesday. but i will def hold the upro 4pm trade past today

944
Swings: NUGT up 5%, UCO 1.3% up  USLV up 4.4%  UPRO up 2.3%... holding all for now but may exit some of these in next 1-60 minutes, or before 4pm

Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:

http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday thoiughts

359
out of uvxy 5.3% in 5 hours gain
SWINGS" still holding for higher trgts: USLV up 2.13% sco up 1.05%  nugt down 0.41% upro up 1.1%

338
i'm going to close BOTH the XIV swing and the UVXY today...they r volatile and dont wanna hold too long overnite...will prob keep the nugt uco uslv

also the vix in no mans land,,,prfer things at extreme, less risk that way

314
1036 new TZA trgt lower from 1040 slight adj

313
1063 tza sell MM levle

312
UVXY breaking todays low??? :)

300
thats why, often when trading vix (tvix uvxy xiv   etc),,, i say "i want to see where UVXY is at when tza gets 1040"

300
975ish calculated UVIX lower MM level...the vix is a bit  harder to calc the levels than everything else, since the vix is not really "real" physical LOL

256
their mode is "try to buy lower, but if not, will pay this price near 1510... again still thinking  a lower high on daily, but higher than this, maybe 1520ish

253
this looking a bit more bullish... MM are accumulating still which is why price has not soared..but they continue this buying...no guarantees but this "usually" pushes up prices, either today or in comnign days

Earlier, when i posted poss tza rejection in 1-6minutes that erally did not come...at that time it looked like they were done buying and would let the price up...but they didnt

and now data suggests they buy this...they are trying to actually let es lower to buy lower but that lower is not them selling, if lower comes today

237
SPY and ES did NOT form a severe bear rising wedge, which means it can go higher than if it were a wedge

236
at at 1509.50 es,,,72% long ES rang, suggests higher hi

225
in 2--6min...poss rejection of tza...watching, 1065 last

220
does not look like it, but MM getting a little more aggressive buying here, not extreme but more than b4...watching to see if this causes a bounce or not to new highs intraday

1509 last es, last tza 1063


211
long USLV silver

141
thus far, tza levels are holding near perfect

141
MM continue to buy and buy here, gently but relentlessly, have not dropped those bids...still watching to see if they pull the rug out, until then, bias up

120
LOL the nugt candle green looks big on the 3min chart,,,but narror range not really as big as it looks, per 60min chart

117
1030 UVXY i might add more shorts if it goes there b4 lower, still at 4% gain thus far

111
MM are buiying again,,,,1510,,,watchinfg for hammer 3min candle

101
if tza hits .60 and gives a lil shoot star...would show MMselling it

1258
SPY hit its 151.60 trgt...so watching carefully now...tho tza still more room lower,,,tricky here

1258
tza 1040 may prompt me to take profits in uvxy, last 1056, exit may be fast....

1257
1510.50 ES...buy level MM

1248
these bearish rising wedges have a habit of breaking HIGHER before the bearish phase kicks in lower

1247
3 min chart on SPY ES starting to look tired and overbought...BUT it can stay this way awhile, until they drop that bid...wedge behavior

1246
i'm watching carefully the screen to see if they drop that bid tho...

1246
 MM buy level still 1509..so close to price lol

1245
see that wedge..15min spy, 3min spy? still has higher tho
thats what i was talking about earlier


1242
this action...is Market Makers buying, not retail
 imo...everything posted always "imo"  LOL


1239
us dollar UUP daily chart ...another example of "too far away" from daily 5 MA...suggests sideways lower in UUP and higher spx

it may form a bull flag in UUP, but lower in the meantime...then time to reverselonjg after pb (and then reverse to short swing spx)

1237
SPY macd histogram making a bulll cross on its 60min chart right now

1231
MM buy level for TZA is way down at 1031ish, last 1061,,

1230
Market Makers are BUYING right now,,,the 1508 ES trades are likely theirs

1220
151.50--151.60ish SPY initial trgt

1219
watch for a wedge to form on the 3min ES SPY

1219
obviously reaction at 1510 ES prior hi test is impt...i believe it can break over it for the rectangle target higher, after poss stall pb first,,,tho looks like it just might form a wedge to break it without much pb...just stuff to watch, not making trade decisions on it

1218
1506 ES....pivot imo intraday: above 1506 bullish,,,may do a quick test of it...if test is quick, then only sideways not lower, would be bullish

weakeneing of the 1506 would maybe prompt me to take early profits in uvxy


1214
this 1016 UVXY is proving a bit hard to break, but the market maker, inv banks, and 60min red candle are keeping me short in it for now,,,that thing moves, up 3.5% gain from entry today

1213
last move in oil 3min chart has decent hi 3min volume,,should go higher

1210
still think dollar will make a HIGHER low tho on daily chart, and a lower hi on the SPX chart, and chance to short spx again,,,but can be 2-4 days out....there is no way that 4pm signal can give an "exit long" alert today, because one of the exit conditinos needs to be in affect overnight over 1 day,,,and that condition is not met but even if it was, it would not give exit until tomorrow 4pm at earliest

1209
also the US dollar 60 min has that "short the second higher hi" on it...suggests lower dollar, higher es, lower uvxy, higher oil

1206
SPY put in a green candle on the 60min chart...often this will result in higher spy as the momentum continues up for 1-4 hours up sideways

1204
the small candles could break lower for one more low b4 bounce, why i have not added to UCO and just running with existing entry

1204
oil has not bounced yet, but it could also make a nice move in coming hours days...all those small candels on the 60min UCO may propel it nicely higher....similar to how we shorted it using SCO lower few days ago

1203
also in UVXY...mentinoed earlier that its failure to pop to 1075 was bearish, and now capable of making a lower low in UVXY as a result...the 953 would be nice tho may not get THERE today, but thats a buy level or stall level on it,,,but thats still about 10% lower from here

1200
ES "rectangle target" is about 5 points OVER todays high, using 3min charts....daily trgt not swing trgt, so 1513ish

1157
then 953 next on UVXY...then maybe time to reverse long on it

1155
Inv Bank n Market Maker calc level to buy uvxy is 997 so trynig to hold for that, which is trgt 2 under the 1016

1142
notice how it did stall and boucne tho, exactly near trgt

1140
UVXY just hit 1016---watching reactino here,,,, a lil bounce would be ok, but still see lower

1139
BTW, the 4pm system is STILL on Long Upro swimg, and this curr price is ok to enter upro, its near the price the system entered at other day

1137
1016 and 997 trgts now UVXY lower...same as b4


1122
getting ready to poss add more UVXY shorts...not yet....waiting...but could be in next 1-50 minutes

1117
nugt hit a 72% buy alert, one reason i added to it a minute ago...starting to move a bit now...watching fgor followthru

1106
i CANCELLED the order to buy USLV,,was never filled, and i put money in other posted positions instead

1105
on the other hand, if uvxy does not make a test up to 1068--1080, it would be bearish weak bounce and i WOULD add to uvxy in that case under the 1075 IF i get some small candles sideways on the 3min...so waiting for now and running with existing position

1101
i hope that UVXY makes one more lil pop higher...i want to add more shares to the short (similar to a long in ES_but UVXY is super volatile) ... but i cant take a larger position just yet because its still in no mans land,  i prefer loading up at extremes instead

1053
UVXY 3min in no-mans land here...so plan is to take profit if it moves lower, and add to it on bounce...could take 45minutes to make up its mind

1052
LOL i wish silver would do a headfake lower to test that low in the SI futures, and i'd get the fill in USLV long...i'm keeping the order for now "down there" because silver and metals do have a tendecy toward that behavior

1048
UVXY approaching 2% profit trgt here, tho will hold longer, from entry today

1046
UVXY finally put in a red candle on 15min chart...the momentum often will last another 2-5 candles, even if bounces first....i may add to uvxy shorts if it does bounce...same plan as b4, not changed, just exchanging "thought process" LOL

1038
UVXY starting to kcik in lower...watching for followthru..up 0.5% in few minutes since entry

1035
1016 UVXY trgt lower for the short, and may add to short at 1075ish if it bounces up there, 1051 last....room to add...

1032
just shorted UVXY
UVXY short is the scalp... XIV long is the swing,,,,same basic trade

1016
if u look at XIV and SPX, the 3min charts are forming that "buy second lower low" for scalps long,,not finished yet but forming, and scaling in could work... also they have the advantage of gap up this morning, which often will retest higher even if gap filled or part filled

949
XIV 21.85 here could work too, swing or scalp,tho i have already from lower and am not adding

943
still have NUGT  UPRO  UCO  XIV

943
i might add more UCO (oil long),,, also looking to buy silver long via USLV 3x...no entry in silver yet...i believe they will both bounce....lower oil ahead possibly later, but looking to trade this bounce first, esp since Silver and Oil are "far" from their 5 period moving averages daily chart

939
long oil using  UCO. swing scalp both

9:28 am
i just put in limit orders to buy USLV slilver long at 20.53 if filled, for either swing or scalp... i'll be actively trading it in and out scalp but its also a good swing.....orders are also in the vse port ... may pay a diff price later, but thats my "market open 930am" price

Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:

http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".