US dollar futures DX continue to look vulnerable to break lower...if so could see SPY gap up in the morn
400
look where tza ended •..exactly at 1071
354
1071 tza trgt resist
352
i am closing all my vxx uvxy shorts and xiv today.
341
now stepped down to 1510 again...they r stepping in fast then moving away...so wont keep typing all this detail
340
MM buying russle now
336
this is STILL not MM buying here...this is what they do..they start the push and then step away
335
i exited the UVXY in the vse port because they dont do AH trading...real profit will be higher than vse but hard to do limit order in vse, and cant "fix it" at 4:15pm since they dont allow trading AH
330
MM dropped bit to 1510 ES......**** watch....i might get stopped on vxx
324
MM have their buy level set at 1513 ES now...1 point under 3min support
323
2070 protective stop put in for XIV in case of sudden surge...same for uvxy and vxx...protecting 22% gains
315
when they are buying at the highs it is hard to believe, but we see the result,,,higher highs
314
imo its very helpful to see that market maker and inv bank activity....sometimes its wrong but generally helpful imo
309
very weak bounce on VXX so far...tho still has time to bounce...thus far continuing bearish for the 2260 lower
303
1514 dropped bid MM. 1514 dropped bid MM
301
nothing wrong with taking xiv or vxx profits here, uvxy 18%ish but i'll hold it longer
301
VXX has declined to the 2300 trgt...now the reaction is v impt....it should bounce but SIZE of bounce should tell us how it will close
259
tza is at support here and it looks breakable,,,brake should send it down to 1030
257
they are trying to stopp a move to 1514 es...which is so close to here...amazing...they could pull bid anytime of course, but curr setup is protecting the 1514. last 1516
255
MM are buying the russel right now. at this price. crazy but its there
250
i still expect VXX to break todays low and make a new low, 2260 trgt...thus far it acted exactly according to pattern with a bounce at 23, now should break 23
245
still trying for that vxx 2260 trgt,,,if so will prob take gain in the vxx short and xiv longs
and uvxy short also, UVXY down a whopping 14.6% today, good for shorts in uvxy
240
for the 4pm swing system: SPY must close higher than today else it will not get an exit long upro signal until at friday. if it goes higher today in spy, then an exit signal to take profits might come tomorrow instead. in any event, an exit signal today is impossible in the system, tho theres nothing wrong with taking profits after a day like today.
215
notice how ES surged, with that US dollar drop. inverse.
211
US Dollar may be making its expected move now...big red candle here
152
added 600 shares UCO to vse port
132
cancelled order to short more vxx...was not filled... will do manually later
125
after some sideways on dollar, expecting lower
125
the dollar should move sideways now on 15min chart,if not its weaker than it should be, and a lil higher would not compromise expecting lower later...but again all within a bull flag daily expected to form
123
idea: before trading ES SPY Russel iwm tna tza metals oil.... look at dollar and euro charts first, esp the dollar...trade has a much better chance if the us dollar charts confirm the trade....relationship is inverse DX:SPX
122
next 4 candles on 15min chart of us dollar DX>..watching...sideways or bit higher would be ok...then lower
114
limit order to short VXX at 24.63---dont know if it will get there, its above 2400 trtg to short...may change it later
109
remember: VXX we expected 2300ish test, then bounce (doing now), then under 2300....market maker and charts support the trade, no guarantees of course
1259
MM like silver here at 2803
1256
vxx: look for pb on vxxx, then higher hi on the 3min chart over .50....may present short opp vxx or long xiv scalp
1255
XIV may present another buying opp...none yet but may present,,,or short vxx...waiting,,,same trgts as b4
1234
*2783
1233
silver 3min looks bad but MM bought some,,,now they will try to buy 2793
1232
MM sold VXX down here,,gentle but they sold it
1229
3min RSI on the DX dollar futures...making a lower low here,,,could push down the dollar intraday,,higher spx silver oil xiv, lower vxx
1223
this is impt and tricky area here at ES 1311ish resist...watching it close...anything can happen...not often drastic at 1230 but one never knows....
1219
wow daily look at spy volume so low at least so far
1214
NUGT nearing 2% gain from entry this morn...this is where scalpers would look to exit (in a bit not yet) and swing would hold. conserv scalp would exit on resist hit, aggressive scalp would wait lil longer to see if resist breaks higher
1213
GDX nearing its resist,,watching reactino there,,,still a lil higher to resist gdx 3858...
1205
notice the 3min stoch 14,3,3 on spy ES?
.
no guarantees...but USUALLY when the 3min stoch like that, so overbought for so long. it means not much pb will come. it looks overbought,,,but thats a character of "trend day". also notice the 60min stoch is no where near being overbought, so plenty of room for sideways up. often it wont pb at all more than 2 points, on such days
1158
ES is now right in the 1511 resist area...watching to see if big pb or just sideways / wedge up
if it does go lower, may present a buying opp....will see
1152
also 60m chart UUP DX says lower dollar
1151
DX UUP daily looks like it wants to form a bull flag: its a bullish pattern BUT BUT it means lower first...which would mean higher spx metals...then see what dollar does after the flag forms
1151
i might short vxx at 2400 area..or xix there, unsure...still have vxx from 8.5% higher,,this would be an additino scalp...
the first bounce on 3min chart of vxx "should" get sold, but will see what chart looks like, may or may not enter
usually a drop in bid like that: it will still stall at 2300 but then break to 2260...usually
1143
they've dropped it...bullish for spx, xiv,,,bearish vxx
1137
BTW,,,the VIX vxx xiv MM and Investment Bank levels are all "derived" values, only 1 derivation tho....nonetheless derived means they are less accurate than the "real" values for spx silver oil etc.....the VIX levels are trickier since its not representing anything real or physical so i have to derive them
1136
if US dollar looked more bullish i'd exit the vxx here but i'm holding now....watching tho
1135
VXX invesment bank buy level is 23.10...will watch reaction there if it gets there, and may stall and bounce,,,watching the MM and INV BANK reports now closely
1132
watching to see if nugt gets there, and reactino: stall? blast thru it higher?
atm, stall expected...
1132
nugt trgt 1 is 604 for scalp not swing part
1102
i'm leaving room to add to both uslv and nugt
1054
if/when DX gets to resist..if it can get a lil higher, i'll prob buy nugt...still waiting...nugt and uslv should act similarly
1046
BTW...fo those trading XIV...it is quite NORMAL for it to go UP much slower than down...but the up can go on and on longer than the quick down
1040
4pm signal swing...there is NO WAY it will give an exit signal today to take profits on long UPRO....it requires certain conditinos to last "overnight" and those conditions have not been met...hence impossible
1037
i saw market makers doing stuff in silver gold and us dollar...why i bought some silver a bit early....will add more silver if it pulls back,,,also looking at nugt gdx on pb but waiting
1031
bought SLV USLV
"paid premium" for silver and bought above the 2803 limit order...cancled lim order and bought here
1025
lim buy silver 28.03 if filled
1020
MM ghave not changed their silver buy sell levels tho, so i'll wait out the silver buy,,,might miss it
1019
its breaking...dollar...we could see a big candle in the metals and spx in next 1--60 minutes
1018
hmm us dollar just got high vol sell rite into support...will support crack soon on the dollar? if so, higher spx, higher oil metals
but rule says respect supp until broken..watching. the high vol is dangerous for dollar tho and suggests it may break lower...daily is still to high on dollar imo and need pb
1016
VXX trade up 5% from afterhours short last nite...still holding it for lower vxx, higher gains
1012
a lower low on GDX or SLV 3min chart, followed by basing,,will setup a long and i will enter if it presents,,,will consider entering without a lower low if it goes sideways long enough,,,but the "buy second low, sell second high" strat would be better if able
1011
CANCELLED order for USO buy....will re-eval later...never got a fill
1005
GDX NUGT re-entry may present, but waiting on that one too,,,,gdx may go to 38 even lower first
1004
4 more candle on silver chart may present another long opp on slv
1004
timing analysis: 60 mionute spx chart is on upward bis for next 4-12 trading hours cash, and buy any dips on small candle basing dip if they present
956
my plan is to hold XIV swing until 1. i get an exit upro long signal from 4pm system,,, or 2. it surges to 21 or 22is, whichever comes first
953
AXP is a dow jones component, with a nice daily chart, and the dow is stronger than spx and russell lately
952
AXP long scalp may setup today but since its scalp would need 500 or 1000 or more shares for that trade....but i like axp daily....its also a good swing trade with 100 shares or more
947
the us dollar is at or near support here and may bounce a lil ,,,sending oil and silver lower
945
simple plan for upro: was to buy at ES 1490 if it hit that, it was ES overnite low,,,but only was valid at open,,,didnt hit so i cancelled order
945
i have CANCELLED upro order now...will re-eval, and might not want it "down there"
944
i have LOWERED my lim order to buiy uso at 3307 instead of 3320 now
938
LOL i missed my USO order to buy by only one penny: 3321 vs 3320....but leaving order for now not chasing, since already have some oil swing, and also oil may still go lower
y: hate when that happens, but at open it moves so fast
934
MM have USO buy level at 33.10 so it may break yest low briefly, watching...will still buy the 3320 if filled, and maybe add more at lower prices
928
i have these orders for now, if they are filled: lim buy 33.20 USO, lim buy UPRO 100.70
922
i will prob buy oil USO UCO at CL 92.00 and UPRO at ES 1390. it might happen in the first few minutes of trading. if so i'll just post "in oil" or "in upro"
Trades can be viewed at the links below.
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings
For details on the portfolio see this posting:
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
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