See post below titled "thurs ramblings (and Wednesday eve / Thurs morning pre-market ES )".
It is updated throughout the day.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Thursday, December 31, 2009
Arrays: How to read stock arrays (reference)
How to read stock arrays: The first number higher than the "current price" when you view the array represents resistance. The first lower than the "current price" when you view the array represents support. For example, in the sample array below, if the price when you view this array is 1124, then 1125 would be R and 1120 would be support. This means that if the last price is 1124, and it moves to 1125, the first expectation is to expect 1125 to hold, and to start a decline to 1120. BUT, if 1125 breaks higher, then we should expect instead a test of 1128.50.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
ES array: 1128.50, 1125, 1120, 1113, 1111, 1107, 1102, 1098, 1091, 1089 where 1124 was the last price.
Thurs ramblings (and Wednesday eve / Thurs morning pre-market ES )
400
100% winning daytrades today. but took a loss on the QID swing. took profit in vxx.
358
YES. covered at 4576 //// 3 centrs from my target............
346
YES. 4578....5 cents from 4573 trgt
345
if we close down here,,,, risk is much less keepin the qid... but i'm opting out nonetheless... got enough shorts
339
yes,,,,,,,,,,qqqqhit 4588... one cent from my target.... 4587 4573... bounced off the 4588 expected
336
qqqq is behaving...going downnnnnnn.........nice for the shorts and qid ;)
327
i prob will get stopped out if they do a successful headfake / stoprun...
324
1882 qid stop
321
qid stop 1883
317
PG swing i will keep....that chart has direction
316
qid stop 1879
310
qqqq continues to give perfect touches to the 3min DTL... resistance is holding
305
i am taking the 2.6%ish loss on my qid swing today. not worth it. still think its good trade but can always buy back. market is directionless again.... dont want to swim with sharks. A CAT 5 hurricane is fine, but not sharks.
258
qqqq marginal break OVER its dtl... bullish mild mild
256
*18.76 stop
254
qid stop now tite at 18.95....i still think higher qid but i can always buy it back. i will take the 2.6% loss if stopped out. other trades cover the loss....
251
downside risk on QID is about 18.34.... using that as part of my risk:reward decision to keep the QID swing or not today. qid last 18.86
239
qqqq declining R on DTL is 46.01 now...lsat qqqq 4598
236
xlf needs to hold 1448,,,esp 1444 to prevent down...last 1448
234
stop lowered to 4607 for all but 25%
232
so much for the 4594 warning...has not materialized...usually would have within next 2 minutes...
228
xlf weakening...slightly
225
qqqq trgt still 4587 4573
223
4594 qqqq warning just popped up on my software... last 4598....suggests a drop
212
qqqq staying under declining resistance line now at 46.02...
157
poss inv HS or cup handle forming in qqqq...both bullish...3min ,,, the chart is warning only no confirmations
155
3min qqqq RSI has stayed under 57 all day...bearish for qqqq long daytrades (good for shorts)
145
the qqqq did a perfect touch of my DTL 3min...R holding thus far.... watching for break of R or S
143
right now... i will hold the qid swing still overnite... might sell today if things change
137
even at 67%...only suggests chop...bias down in qqqq under 4605/11
136
67% confid bull crouch tiger qqqq.... watching the shorts here now....
134
mental stop cover qqqq 4605....
127
i MIGHT take a 2% loss on my swing QID today and close the trade....and re-buy next week.... unsure... possible... dpends on close.... i hate taking the loss....but might...
122
MM have widened their spread, testing the mkt...no one is interested either way right now lol... no movement
despite no pressure from MM
120
taking profits here at LOD on 10%
118
MM holding up qqqq now... on the bid....if they drop the bid... 4587
116
qqqq trgt 4587 here....... then 4573
1114
maybe ES want to test the yest LOD 1114..... last 1118... 1114 hidden support to test
113
triangles have played out well tday
112
poss daily bear engulf pattern in qqqq....not confirmed yet....needs to close lower.... a weak engulf tho
111
xlf stubbornly pressing that 1451....trying to breakout... lesat qqqq going down....
108
qqqq moving lower....trickling ...dribble,,,drip
1259
4611 mental stop
1258
lowering stops to 4613 for most of qqqq shorts....... keeping 25% at breakeven as usual
1254
CANCELLING order to short more q at 4610.... will re-eval if it gets there.
1248
under 46.11 my bias remains down for the qs
1241
welll....the expected coil decision by 1236pm didnt happn yet.... its LATE....
1237
qqqq 3min chart....poss intraday mini-waves... made 3 down, on 4th now, with 5th down to follow still today...
1228
acc/dis bear diverg qqqq daily from sept--dec. no bear money flow diverg daily.
1227
mini bear desc triangle qqqq 2min chart
1225
qqqq charts still suggest break of 4595 or at least a retest of it...last 4604...
1221
xlf has a bull poss pattern forming (133t chart) that has a target of 14.73. but a sustained, real break over 14.55 then 15.61 would be needed. pattern only warns, no breakout yet. actually still looks tired to me, expecting sideways or down in xlf
1218
i have drawn now a THIRD downtrend line intraday qqqq.... as long as qqqq stays under it, i will keep the qqq short.
1216
xlf continues to hold this mkt up, i think.... its growing weary on the upside, but there are also "berakout higher" signals... if xlf finan falls, the market should follow
1215
est decision time on the coil is 12:36pm at current velocity
1214
the qqqq 2min has formed yet ANOTHER coil...watching to see if breaks higher or lower,,,, slight down bias but bull signals too.... i remain short the q's
1204
the qqqq bull rsi swing almost happend but failed...tryihng again ....
1157
limit short more qqqq 4610.... riskier but have profits to re-invest... last 4605
1156
thus far....qqqq staying under the 4608/4610 in a continuing intraday lower hi, lower lo, bear... watching to see if break north
1146
if qqqq gets 4610, pulls back, then goes up, chart could form a bull W with an upside target of 4620ish....
1145
watching for 3min bull fail swing rsi in qqqq...among other things...may cover some more and re-short,,,idk.... will def keep 25% at 4617 stop tho
1143
the 3min bull diverg i mentioned b4 are causing this lil pop...hope its contained at 4610/4615
1141
got hit on the 4603...covered for profits... likely see 4605 now
1139
*4603....too close... raised stop from 4602
1138
spx is near yesterdays LOW of day... BUT ES is not so near its lower LOD for yest... hidden target down....
1135
qqqq hit 4601 but not 4602.....still in on that piece, not stopped out... *whew* one cent miss
1134
its all about support....that 4595 needs to crack lower and sustain.... or hold...
1133
ok the qqqq has forced me to redraw a second, less steep downtrend line, intraday action. this means chop / weakening trend, but again... 3 redraws are ok...this is 2 of 3
1131
(lately i am prefering to just use 3 times the # of shares in qqqq to mimic a 3x etf... smother price action on qqqq)
1130
small short qqqq can take 1.5% daytrade profit on 3x etf if they close here the trade
1126
however bull diverg forming in the qqqq that could halt the lower trgts...watching....stops set
1123
correction.....4587
1123
ok new added trgt in qqqq 4687 from chart pattern measure
1122
stops in the q's at 4617 and 4602
1120
qqqq is now back UNDER the original steep DTL intraday....
1119
15min qqqq boll bands expanding....could see a nice move...initial stages only
1118
an xlf break of 1439 would set some momen down...but well above that at 1448 but starting to crack
111177
charts suggest 4595 should break...but tough these low vol days
1115
qqqq---holding most for the ride down if we get it,,,, mite not on this day...might range trade or spin top candle
1114
yes. this is what happens with malformed crouching tigers at 62%.... chop or move back down....
1112
"loose" qqqq targets, from glancing,,, not refined thru calc... 4601 4596,,, 4573
1110
KEY KEY KEY.... qqqq 45.96 must hold by bullss.... its yest LOD
1109
qqqq hit the 4601 target... holding still
1108
PG short ...premise still holds... last 6115 at LOD now
1106
grrr i prematurely exited the vxx...profits too soon
1104
qqqq under 4614 suggests bearishness.... would keep the qqqq in bear HS pattern in the 133t chart
1103
despite the small move up, the bull crouch tiger remains at 62%...no hihger
1102
no bull divergence in the qqqq yet
1058
q 4605 down would imply a backtest of the broken DTL...last 4609
1057
qqqq has managed to break OVER the first steep intraday DOWNtrendline ....however 3 redraws are common to still maintain a downtrend....remaing short still ... stops set for 3 cent profit (breakeven)
1055
MM are mildly on the ask here...lowering the ask (bear qqqq)
1054
instead,,,looking for qqqq 4615 R to hold,,,, 133t chart
1053
62% bull crouching tiger in qqqq... suggests chop or maybe 4620....i'm not trading that long... remain short instead...having taken some profits already
1051
qqqq triangle backtest of the triangle all the way up to 4617 could happn here....
1045
of course the principle of confirmation suggests that no trade is taken on boll band alone...but needs confirm with other signals indicators
1044
the qqqq 15 and 60 min boll bands are tight, narrow. a break below the 46.01 that CLOSES under it for 2 bars suggests further downward pressure. In general, one strategy is to play the BREAKOUT of narrow bollinger bands in the direction of the breakout.... With wide bands (which we have only on daily), it's inverse... when the prices are OUTof the band and come back IN,,,, play again in the direction. In this case, the prices would come from under the lower boll band, then pierce it higher, then close, signaling to go long. However, for now, intraday, we have narrow bands, that suggest short under 4601 decisively. I'm not playing the momentum downside breakout based on low volume... but i'll stay at least 25% short at breakeven to assure participation if it happens, since I'm in at 46.24 or 3 cents from HOD. hopefully that
doesnt sound confusing lol
1040
the triangle pattern and 20 plus indicators gave a beautiful short setup with decent followthru thus far.... 1.2% on a 3x etf in 1 hour...
1038
yes. qqqq short is behaving :)
1037
yest qqqq low of day was 4596... see if it tests it, stalls, or breaks lower
1036
CANCELLING 4601 limit cover...will do manually....stalled at 4605 not .01 as i expected....
1032
still watching this poss bull pattern in xlf daily.... mentioned it yest
1020
if qqqq can break 46.88 then it should give some nice down momen
1019
looking for qqqq to stay under .10 for now....stop .12 for a piece of q short
1016
qqqq short is 1.2% profit here on a 3x....taking some profits
1014
stop 4614 on 20% of q
1010
mental stop .17 qqqq
1009
q stops lowered again to .21 for a free trade,,,,,breakeven (well 3 cent profit lol)
1008
mental cover pt at 46.01....if it stalls there i will cover some qqqq.... small positions would cover 50% on stall there... i will wait to see if it can break unde
1007
qqqq broke south from the coill...2min...now must sustain... staying nimble, ready to cover if reverses
1005
yes. qqq at4615 trgt now.... it needs to break lower....
1004
qqqq 4615 would give a marginal breakdown in the q coil...but would need to sustain... a backtest back up likely if it does break lower
1002
looking for q tgo stay under .20
1001
ok the qqqq 2min is in a coil....watching to see where it breaks, among other indicators. may exit the short early depending on whether the R holds...rite now the short premise stands...staying short...last 4618
951
stop lowered to 4637 for qqqq short for now...
949
4601 first trgt for qqqq short
941
last few 4 days have been tricky... i have had to play the open to make any decent money...has worked thus far but the open can be tricky to trade
940
qqqq 4620 stall and bounce up expected...is ok for shorts
936
taking profits on vxx from yest... 32.95 sold...lookin to reenter again
934
it is possible that qqqq will make a new high today,,, watching the short pos. ... still good risk trade near R
932
shorting the qqqq 46.26 stop 47 for now...will lower stop later
5:27 AM
ES array for Thursday 5:30 AM -- 4:00 PM
ES array: 1128.50, 1125, 1120, 1113, 1111, 1107, 1102, 1098, 1091, 1089 where 1124 was the last price.
Key pivot is 1120. Over 1120 and rising is bullish. Under 1120 and falling is bearish.
How to read the array: The first number higher than the "current price" when you view the array represents resistance. The first lower than the "current price" when you view the array represents support. For example, in the sample array below, if the price when you view this array is 1124, then 1125 would be R and 1120 would be support. This means that if the last price is 1124, and it moves to 1125, the first expectation is to expect 1125 to hold, and to start a decline to 1120. BUT, if 1125 breaks higher, then we should expect instead a test of 1128.50.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
100% winning daytrades today. but took a loss on the QID swing. took profit in vxx.
358
YES. covered at 4576 //// 3 centrs from my target............
346
YES. 4578....5 cents from 4573 trgt
345
if we close down here,,,, risk is much less keepin the qid... but i'm opting out nonetheless... got enough shorts
339
yes,,,,,,,,,,qqqqhit 4588... one cent from my target.... 4587 4573... bounced off the 4588 expected
336
qqqq is behaving...going downnnnnnn.........nice for the shorts and qid ;)
327
i prob will get stopped out if they do a successful headfake / stoprun...
324
1882 qid stop
321
qid stop 1883
317
PG swing i will keep....that chart has direction
316
qid stop 1879
310
qqqq continues to give perfect touches to the 3min DTL... resistance is holding
305
i am taking the 2.6%ish loss on my qid swing today. not worth it. still think its good trade but can always buy back. market is directionless again.... dont want to swim with sharks. A CAT 5 hurricane is fine, but not sharks.
258
qqqq marginal break OVER its dtl... bullish mild mild
256
*18.76 stop
254
qid stop now tite at 18.95....i still think higher qid but i can always buy it back. i will take the 2.6% loss if stopped out. other trades cover the loss....
251
downside risk on QID is about 18.34.... using that as part of my risk:reward decision to keep the QID swing or not today. qid last 18.86
239
qqqq declining R on DTL is 46.01 now...lsat qqqq 4598
236
xlf needs to hold 1448,,,esp 1444 to prevent down...last 1448
234
stop lowered to 4607 for all but 25%
232
so much for the 4594 warning...has not materialized...usually would have within next 2 minutes...
228
xlf weakening...slightly
225
qqqq trgt still 4587 4573
223
4594 qqqq warning just popped up on my software... last 4598....suggests a drop
212
qqqq staying under declining resistance line now at 46.02...
157
poss inv HS or cup handle forming in qqqq...both bullish...3min ,,, the chart is warning only no confirmations
155
3min qqqq RSI has stayed under 57 all day...bearish for qqqq long daytrades (good for shorts)
145
the qqqq did a perfect touch of my DTL 3min...R holding thus far.... watching for break of R or S
143
right now... i will hold the qid swing still overnite... might sell today if things change
137
even at 67%...only suggests chop...bias down in qqqq under 4605/11
136
67% confid bull crouch tiger qqqq.... watching the shorts here now....
134
mental stop cover qqqq 4605....
127
i MIGHT take a 2% loss on my swing QID today and close the trade....and re-buy next week.... unsure... possible... dpends on close.... i hate taking the loss....but might...
122
MM have widened their spread, testing the mkt...no one is interested either way right now lol... no movement
despite no pressure from MM
120
taking profits here at LOD on 10%
118
MM holding up qqqq now... on the bid....if they drop the bid... 4587
116
qqqq trgt 4587 here....... then 4573
1114
maybe ES want to test the yest LOD 1114..... last 1118... 1114 hidden support to test
113
triangles have played out well tday
112
poss daily bear engulf pattern in qqqq....not confirmed yet....needs to close lower.... a weak engulf tho
111
xlf stubbornly pressing that 1451....trying to breakout... lesat qqqq going down....
108
qqqq moving lower....trickling ...dribble,,,drip
1259
4611 mental stop
1258
lowering stops to 4613 for most of qqqq shorts....... keeping 25% at breakeven as usual
1254
CANCELLING order to short more q at 4610.... will re-eval if it gets there.
1248
under 46.11 my bias remains down for the qs
1241
welll....the expected coil decision by 1236pm didnt happn yet.... its LATE....
1237
qqqq 3min chart....poss intraday mini-waves... made 3 down, on 4th now, with 5th down to follow still today...
1228
acc/dis bear diverg qqqq daily from sept--dec. no bear money flow diverg daily.
1227
mini bear desc triangle qqqq 2min chart
1225
qqqq charts still suggest break of 4595 or at least a retest of it...last 4604...
1221
xlf has a bull poss pattern forming (133t chart) that has a target of 14.73. but a sustained, real break over 14.55 then 15.61 would be needed. pattern only warns, no breakout yet. actually still looks tired to me, expecting sideways or down in xlf
1218
i have drawn now a THIRD downtrend line intraday qqqq.... as long as qqqq stays under it, i will keep the qqq short.
1216
xlf continues to hold this mkt up, i think.... its growing weary on the upside, but there are also "berakout higher" signals... if xlf finan falls, the market should follow
1215
est decision time on the coil is 12:36pm at current velocity
1214
the qqqq 2min has formed yet ANOTHER coil...watching to see if breaks higher or lower,,,, slight down bias but bull signals too.... i remain short the q's
1204
the qqqq bull rsi swing almost happend but failed...tryihng again ....
1157
limit short more qqqq 4610.... riskier but have profits to re-invest... last 4605
1156
thus far....qqqq staying under the 4608/4610 in a continuing intraday lower hi, lower lo, bear... watching to see if break north
1146
if qqqq gets 4610, pulls back, then goes up, chart could form a bull W with an upside target of 4620ish....
1145
watching for 3min bull fail swing rsi in qqqq...among other things...may cover some more and re-short,,,idk.... will def keep 25% at 4617 stop tho
1143
the 3min bull diverg i mentioned b4 are causing this lil pop...hope its contained at 4610/4615
1141
got hit on the 4603...covered for profits... likely see 4605 now
1139
*4603....too close... raised stop from 4602
1138
spx is near yesterdays LOW of day... BUT ES is not so near its lower LOD for yest... hidden target down....
1135
qqqq hit 4601 but not 4602.....still in on that piece, not stopped out... *whew* one cent miss
1134
its all about support....that 4595 needs to crack lower and sustain.... or hold...
1133
ok the qqqq has forced me to redraw a second, less steep downtrend line, intraday action. this means chop / weakening trend, but again... 3 redraws are ok...this is 2 of 3
1131
(lately i am prefering to just use 3 times the # of shares in qqqq to mimic a 3x etf... smother price action on qqqq)
1130
small short qqqq can take 1.5% daytrade profit on 3x etf if they close here the trade
1126
however bull diverg forming in the qqqq that could halt the lower trgts...watching....stops set
1123
correction.....4587
1123
ok new added trgt in qqqq 4687 from chart pattern measure
1122
stops in the q's at 4617 and 4602
1120
qqqq is now back UNDER the original steep DTL intraday....
1119
15min qqqq boll bands expanding....could see a nice move...initial stages only
1118
an xlf break of 1439 would set some momen down...but well above that at 1448 but starting to crack
111177
charts suggest 4595 should break...but tough these low vol days
1115
qqqq---holding most for the ride down if we get it,,,, mite not on this day...might range trade or spin top candle
1114
yes. this is what happens with malformed crouching tigers at 62%.... chop or move back down....
1112
"loose" qqqq targets, from glancing,,, not refined thru calc... 4601 4596,,, 4573
1110
KEY KEY KEY.... qqqq 45.96 must hold by bullss.... its yest LOD
1109
qqqq hit the 4601 target... holding still
1108
PG short ...premise still holds... last 6115 at LOD now
1106
grrr i prematurely exited the vxx...profits too soon
1104
qqqq under 4614 suggests bearishness.... would keep the qqqq in bear HS pattern in the 133t chart
1103
despite the small move up, the bull crouch tiger remains at 62%...no hihger
1102
no bull divergence in the qqqq yet
1058
q 4605 down would imply a backtest of the broken DTL...last 4609
1057
qqqq has managed to break OVER the first steep intraday DOWNtrendline ....however 3 redraws are common to still maintain a downtrend....remaing short still ... stops set for 3 cent profit (breakeven)
1055
MM are mildly on the ask here...lowering the ask (bear qqqq)
1054
instead,,,looking for qqqq 4615 R to hold,,,, 133t chart
1053
62% bull crouching tiger in qqqq... suggests chop or maybe 4620....i'm not trading that long... remain short instead...having taken some profits already
1051
qqqq triangle backtest of the triangle all the way up to 4617 could happn here....
1045
of course the principle of confirmation suggests that no trade is taken on boll band alone...but needs confirm with other signals indicators
1044
the qqqq 15 and 60 min boll bands are tight, narrow. a break below the 46.01 that CLOSES under it for 2 bars suggests further downward pressure. In general, one strategy is to play the BREAKOUT of narrow bollinger bands in the direction of the breakout.... With wide bands (which we have only on daily), it's inverse... when the prices are OUTof the band and come back IN,,,, play again in the direction. In this case, the prices would come from under the lower boll band, then pierce it higher, then close, signaling to go long. However, for now, intraday, we have narrow bands, that suggest short under 4601 decisively. I'm not playing the momentum downside breakout based on low volume... but i'll stay at least 25% short at breakeven to assure participation if it happens, since I'm in at 46.24 or 3 cents from HOD. hopefully that
doesnt sound confusing lol
1040
the triangle pattern and 20 plus indicators gave a beautiful short setup with decent followthru thus far.... 1.2% on a 3x etf in 1 hour...
1038
yes. qqqq short is behaving :)
1037
yest qqqq low of day was 4596... see if it tests it, stalls, or breaks lower
1036
CANCELLING 4601 limit cover...will do manually....stalled at 4605 not .01 as i expected....
1032
still watching this poss bull pattern in xlf daily.... mentioned it yest
1020
if qqqq can break 46.88 then it should give some nice down momen
1019
looking for qqqq to stay under .10 for now....stop .12 for a piece of q short
1016
qqqq short is 1.2% profit here on a 3x....taking some profits
1014
stop 4614 on 20% of q
1010
mental stop .17 qqqq
1009
q stops lowered again to .21 for a free trade,,,,,breakeven (well 3 cent profit lol)
1008
mental cover pt at 46.01....if it stalls there i will cover some qqqq.... small positions would cover 50% on stall there... i will wait to see if it can break unde
1007
qqqq broke south from the coill...2min...now must sustain... staying nimble, ready to cover if reverses
1005
yes. qqq at4615 trgt now.... it needs to break lower....
1004
qqqq 4615 would give a marginal breakdown in the q coil...but would need to sustain... a backtest back up likely if it does break lower
1002
looking for q tgo stay under .20
1001
ok the qqqq 2min is in a coil....watching to see where it breaks, among other indicators. may exit the short early depending on whether the R holds...rite now the short premise stands...staying short...last 4618
951
stop lowered to 4637 for qqqq short for now...
949
4601 first trgt for qqqq short
941
last few 4 days have been tricky... i have had to play the open to make any decent money...has worked thus far but the open can be tricky to trade
940
qqqq 4620 stall and bounce up expected...is ok for shorts
936
taking profits on vxx from yest... 32.95 sold...lookin to reenter again
934
it is possible that qqqq will make a new high today,,, watching the short pos. ... still good risk trade near R
932
shorting the qqqq 46.26 stop 47 for now...will lower stop later
5:27 AM
ES array for Thursday 5:30 AM -- 4:00 PM
ES array: 1128.50, 1125, 1120, 1113, 1111, 1107, 1102, 1098, 1091, 1089 where 1124 was the last price.
Key pivot is 1120. Over 1120 and rising is bullish. Under 1120 and falling is bearish.
How to read the array: The first number higher than the "current price" when you view the array represents resistance. The first lower than the "current price" when you view the array represents support. For example, in the sample array below, if the price when you view this array is 1124, then 1125 would be R and 1120 would be support. This means that if the last price is 1124, and it moves to 1125, the first expectation is to expect 1125 to hold, and to start a decline to 1120. BUT, if 1125 breaks higher, then we should expect instead a test of 1128.50.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Reference: What is "confidence level"?
As I use the term, "confidence level" is not a guaranteed level ... number arrived at mostly with analysis of 20 indicators plus chart patterns / pictures, and then my own interpretation... so for example "94% conidence" is not a purely mathematical calc... its a combo of math plus art ... why i say "confidence" level...
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
DOW charts (DIA) .. draft only
Draft drawings, messy, brainstorming here....
Might update later with notes, analysis.
BOTH bearish and bullish cases can be made, yet again.
60 min.... bull inv HS
Daily DIA. remove the noise. rectangle again.
Daily DIA. Remove the noise. Line chart not bar. Rectangle with a few overshoots.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Might update later with notes, analysis.
BOTH bearish and bullish cases can be made, yet again.
60 min.... bull inv HS
Daily DIA. remove the noise. rectangle again.
Daily DIA. Remove the noise. Line chart not bar. Rectangle with a few overshoots.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
wedn ramblings (and Tues eve ES futures)
331
preparing to sell some of this xlf into the close if able, for profit
327
declining daily macd hist... stoch near OB... rsi flat,,,,rsi R holding.... too much bearishness for me to hold overnite
316
my software shows an underlying bid to hold it up...and selling into it... an old MM trick
315
xlf is close to cracking lower... but hasnt
313
hmm the spx hourly chart is forming a bull asc triangle here now... but other bear signs
311
if the MM drop the
xlf bid...should go down 10
cents...last 1442 xlf
310
MM have a bid under the xlf... but they r selling into it,for now. it
300
i cannot get filled in the more xlf short
259
ok 1443 xlf short limit
255
one cent from 1444 short fill xlf for more xlf
252
xlf 1448 possible in 133t chart patterns. i do not expect it, but pattern is there as poss
245
PG short still valid...lower prices here
222
xlf is entering overbought in 15min with little upward price movement,,,, bearish
219
looking for xlf to stay under 1444.. if not i may exit/reenter...will see
218
this xlf 10min is in a rectangle that i expect to break to downside in coming hours/days
211
xlf looks like broken south bear HS that is backtesting a lil . .. 60 min chart
206
spx 60min chart--- bear M.... plus bear desc triangle
205
hmm MM have an underlying bid...for now --bullish
159
1483 xlf new stop
154
xlf does have a potential bull inv HS forming tho.... watching out for that since im short the xlf (daily chart) .. would put xlf back around 15ish
151
i dont want to be long with that kind of close overnight... (spx eve star)... among other bearish signs ... suggests test of 1112 spx
150
the SPX is in danger of a bear eve star 3 day candle pattern close today... a close below yesterdays low would give that... and its already under it right now.
146
xlf has 60min rounded top, bear divergence, among other things, hence the XLF daytrade / swing short combo
137
xlf stop 1471 for now
135
shorting xlf 14.37
132
paying premium on faz daytrade expecting breakout... no breakout i keep it as swing
131
1945 in more faz....other piece from 1866
127
the 60min spx is in a downtrend
124
my QID swing is down red about 2.6%,,,, but i'm holding it still.... charts suggest lower prices in qqqq.... 2.6% loss not bad for a 2x etf ..... the VXX and PG swing profits cover the red qid
119
grr i covered too much of my PG short...only have small piece left.... oh welll
106
raising stop on 75% of vxx swing to 32.37....
1247
6115 impt PG support...see if holds nbounces or breaks lower
1245
PG trgt 6081 with stalls in between ...lower targets refined later on
1244
smaller positions would set stop at 61.29 on half of position or sell half now at .23
1242
PG is in the process of destroying the 15min bull diverg now...bearish....
1237
pg stop at 6147 for 75% of shares. locks in profit
1235
yes, pg broke lod :)
1232
charts suggest it will break the low lwoer
1231
pg is 2 cents from LOD...testing the low here
1230
rest of qqqq short just set to stopout at breakeven.... will cover that later if it goes down, else get stopped out and keep profits taken earlier
1229
PG has a bull diverg...watching the pg short....stop 6169
1220
PG is painting a huge shooting star / gravestone on the daily right now (of course if it closes higher that goes away)
1218
the PG is working better to daytrade short vs the q short. PG is often pokey and hard to daytrade, but its moving around nicely up n down here the last week
1216
the PG is about to test impt 6140 support...execting stall and break lower
1159
ok..daytrading the PG short now at 61.52
1154
LOL the marketmakers have stepped away...they appear to be in auto-watch mode... testing the retail...
1137
but it looks like the qqqq have some unfinished business on the downside before the diverg bullish kicks in. qqqq last 46.00
1136
qqqq --- possible bull diverg in 15min macd hist.... watching those shorts.....
1135
qqqq rsi resist held, and turned lower, and mow has marginal break below rsi support... if stays under the support...bearish for qqqq (among other things)
1130
will get more precise targets later for qqqq...this is what i have by glancing.... 4592, 45.55, 4493, 4473, 4381
1125
agreessive traders would add qqqq shorts here...i'll add some but have profits to play with from b4...higher risk...charts say the qqqq will make a lower low today.... qqqq 4603
1123
well..tite stop is low risk, but trade is agressive at 4608, whatever that means
1122
add MMORE QQQQ short 46.08 if filled...with a tite stop low risk
1119
qqqq 133t has a weird looking bear HS .. not classic formation
1118
4606 R held so far and q backed down to 4601
1117
one cent from 4606 at 05...not tested yet....
1113
still watching qqqq 4606 to see reaction if it gets there
1101
the qqqq should have bounced more here....at the 46....struggling.... lets see if bulls step up
1100
vix 20.93 and then over 24 would cause fireworks... (down in spx dow)...still far from that now at 20.25last
1055
yesterday i tried a momentum trade short the qqqq at 46.04.... made a minimal profit on it yesterday... but it could have been just 1-2 days early.... the last time i did a momentum trade was qqqq LONG on 12/18 that did not play out on 12/18... but 12/19 started a run up.... past performance no guar of future blah blah blah....might need to wait for jan 2 to see any followthru down...
1052
94% is confidence level, not "quaranteed level" ... number arrived at mostly with analysis of 20 indicators plus chart patterns pictures, and then my own interpretation... the 94% is not a purely mathematical calc... its a combo of math plus art ... why i say "confidence" level
1051
i have a sell long positinos signal now... qqqq 45.97
1050
i have a 94% confidence SWING SHORT qqqq setup here... depends on the close today... early qid entrys
small positions would cover 50% of q short here at 4601
took qqq profits on1038
1046
qqqq have good chance of breaking BELOW the LOD
1032
will take some profits there at qqqq LOD,,,,and keep at least 25% for lower with manual trailing stops
1027
the PG short is acting up here... but i remain short...stop still set at 62.07.. i might consider abandoning this trade today,,, but premise is still valid, for now
1025
bull QID crouching tiger (bear qqqq)... 97% confidence...qid needs to stay over 18.70 (daytrade tiger not swing)... (daytrade tiger not swing) ... qid last 18.73
1022
bear qqqq signals: declining rsi 60',,, 60' rsi at R, declining macd hist daily, daily stoch bear cross
Bull qqqq: over the MA, up for the day
1021
qqqq 133t chart===bearish daytrade
956
qqqq could go for 46.31
953
btw VXX is jerky... so i do not play that for daytrades... it jumps around in 10 cent incrememnts lol.. the lower vol of VXX exacerbates this phenomena. usually i like stocks with vol over 10million/day,,,, or 5M
951
TRADE: shorting the qqqq 46.20 daytrade... stop 46.53 for now..will change the stop later
936
stop 30.93 on the vxx for now... will change later
934
long some VXX 32.74...for mid term swing. This is EARLY entry... before confirmed break over the R
917
considering an entry LONG in the VXX today.... the vxx would be a 1-9 month hold
840
Right now, ES is trading BELOW both the 20MA and 50MA on the 60min chart, with a bear 20/50 cross. It is ABOVE the daily 20/50 MA.
8:30 AM wedn
On Tuesday around 6:00 AM the ES made a high of 1128.50. The Tuesday low was 1120.50. In overnight trading, the ES broke under the tues 1128.50 low, and made an overnight low of 1113. It bounced up off the 1113 and is currently at 1117, or down 4.75 points from yesterday's close.
ES under 1122 (or esp under 1119) would be bearish, the bulls intraday will want to push it over the 1119 to 1122 for a run back up at 1128.50 (with stops and stalls in between).
More details and targets later, perhaps.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
preparing to sell some of this xlf into the close if able, for profit
327
declining daily macd hist... stoch near OB... rsi flat,,,,rsi R holding.... too much bearishness for me to hold overnite
316
my software shows an underlying bid to hold it up...and selling into it... an old MM trick
315
xlf is close to cracking lower... but hasnt
313
hmm the spx hourly chart is forming a bull asc triangle here now... but other bear signs
311
if the MM drop the
xlf bid...should go down 10
cents...last 1442 xlf
310
MM have a bid under the xlf... but they r selling into it,for now. it
300
i cannot get filled in the more xlf short
259
ok 1443 xlf short limit
255
one cent from 1444 short fill xlf for more xlf
252
xlf 1448 possible in 133t chart patterns. i do not expect it, but pattern is there as poss
245
PG short still valid...lower prices here
222
xlf is entering overbought in 15min with little upward price movement,,,, bearish
219
looking for xlf to stay under 1444.. if not i may exit/reenter...will see
218
this xlf 10min is in a rectangle that i expect to break to downside in coming hours/days
211
xlf looks like broken south bear HS that is backtesting a lil . .. 60 min chart
206
spx 60min chart--- bear M.... plus bear desc triangle
205
hmm MM have an underlying bid...for now --bullish
159
1483 xlf new stop
154
xlf does have a potential bull inv HS forming tho.... watching out for that since im short the xlf (daily chart) .. would put xlf back around 15ish
151
i dont want to be long with that kind of close overnight... (spx eve star)... among other bearish signs ... suggests test of 1112 spx
150
the SPX is in danger of a bear eve star 3 day candle pattern close today... a close below yesterdays low would give that... and its already under it right now.
146
xlf has 60min rounded top, bear divergence, among other things, hence the XLF daytrade / swing short combo
137
xlf stop 1471 for now
135
shorting xlf 14.37
132
paying premium on faz daytrade expecting breakout... no breakout i keep it as swing
131
1945 in more faz....other piece from 1866
127
the 60min spx is in a downtrend
124
my QID swing is down red about 2.6%,,,, but i'm holding it still.... charts suggest lower prices in qqqq.... 2.6% loss not bad for a 2x etf ..... the VXX and PG swing profits cover the red qid
119
grr i covered too much of my PG short...only have small piece left.... oh welll
106
raising stop on 75% of vxx swing to 32.37....
1247
6115 impt PG support...see if holds nbounces or breaks lower
1245
PG trgt 6081 with stalls in between ...lower targets refined later on
1244
smaller positions would set stop at 61.29 on half of position or sell half now at .23
1242
PG is in the process of destroying the 15min bull diverg now...bearish....
1237
pg stop at 6147 for 75% of shares. locks in profit
1235
yes, pg broke lod :)
1232
charts suggest it will break the low lwoer
1231
pg is 2 cents from LOD...testing the low here
1230
rest of qqqq short just set to stopout at breakeven.... will cover that later if it goes down, else get stopped out and keep profits taken earlier
1229
PG has a bull diverg...watching the pg short....stop 6169
1220
PG is painting a huge shooting star / gravestone on the daily right now (of course if it closes higher that goes away)
1218
the PG is working better to daytrade short vs the q short. PG is often pokey and hard to daytrade, but its moving around nicely up n down here the last week
1216
the PG is about to test impt 6140 support...execting stall and break lower
1159
ok..daytrading the PG short now at 61.52
1154
LOL the marketmakers have stepped away...they appear to be in auto-watch mode... testing the retail...
1137
but it looks like the qqqq have some unfinished business on the downside before the diverg bullish kicks in. qqqq last 46.00
1136
qqqq --- possible bull diverg in 15min macd hist.... watching those shorts.....
1135
qqqq rsi resist held, and turned lower, and mow has marginal break below rsi support... if stays under the support...bearish for qqqq (among other things)
1130
will get more precise targets later for qqqq...this is what i have by glancing.... 4592, 45.55, 4493, 4473, 4381
1125
agreessive traders would add qqqq shorts here...i'll add some but have profits to play with from b4...higher risk...charts say the qqqq will make a lower low today.... qqqq 4603
1123
well..tite stop is low risk, but trade is agressive at 4608, whatever that means
1122
add MMORE QQQQ short 46.08 if filled...with a tite stop low risk
1119
qqqq 133t has a weird looking bear HS .. not classic formation
1118
4606 R held so far and q backed down to 4601
1117
one cent from 4606 at 05...not tested yet....
1113
still watching qqqq 4606 to see reaction if it gets there
1101
the qqqq should have bounced more here....at the 46....struggling.... lets see if bulls step up
1100
vix 20.93 and then over 24 would cause fireworks... (down in spx dow)...still far from that now at 20.25last
1055
yesterday i tried a momentum trade short the qqqq at 46.04.... made a minimal profit on it yesterday... but it could have been just 1-2 days early.... the last time i did a momentum trade was qqqq LONG on 12/18 that did not play out on 12/18... but 12/19 started a run up.... past performance no guar of future blah blah blah....might need to wait for jan 2 to see any followthru down...
1052
94% is confidence level, not "quaranteed level" ... number arrived at mostly with analysis of 20 indicators plus chart patterns pictures, and then my own interpretation... the 94% is not a purely mathematical calc... its a combo of math plus art ... why i say "confidence" level
1051
i have a sell long positinos signal now... qqqq 45.97
1050
i have a 94% confidence SWING SHORT qqqq setup here... depends on the close today... early qid entrys
small positions would cover 50% of q short here at 4601
took qqq profits on1038
1046
qqqq have good chance of breaking BELOW the LOD
1032
will take some profits there at qqqq LOD,,,,and keep at least 25% for lower with manual trailing stops
1027
the PG short is acting up here... but i remain short...stop still set at 62.07.. i might consider abandoning this trade today,,, but premise is still valid, for now
1025
bull QID crouching tiger (bear qqqq)... 97% confidence...qid needs to stay over 18.70 (daytrade tiger not swing)... (daytrade tiger not swing) ... qid last 18.73
1022
bear qqqq signals: declining rsi 60',,, 60' rsi at R, declining macd hist daily, daily stoch bear cross
Bull qqqq: over the MA, up for the day
1021
qqqq 133t chart===bearish daytrade
956
qqqq could go for 46.31
953
btw VXX is jerky... so i do not play that for daytrades... it jumps around in 10 cent incrememnts lol.. the lower vol of VXX exacerbates this phenomena. usually i like stocks with vol over 10million/day,,,, or 5M
951
TRADE: shorting the qqqq 46.20 daytrade... stop 46.53 for now..will change the stop later
936
stop 30.93 on the vxx for now... will change later
934
long some VXX 32.74...for mid term swing. This is EARLY entry... before confirmed break over the R
917
considering an entry LONG in the VXX today.... the vxx would be a 1-9 month hold
840
Right now, ES is trading BELOW both the 20MA and 50MA on the 60min chart, with a bear 20/50 cross. It is ABOVE the daily 20/50 MA.
8:30 AM wedn
On Tuesday around 6:00 AM the ES made a high of 1128.50. The Tuesday low was 1120.50. In overnight trading, the ES broke under the tues 1128.50 low, and made an overnight low of 1113. It bounced up off the 1113 and is currently at 1117, or down 4.75 points from yesterday's close.
ES under 1122 (or esp under 1119) would be bearish, the bulls intraday will want to push it over the 1119 to 1122 for a run back up at 1128.50 (with stops and stalls in between).
More details and targets later, perhaps.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
tuesday ramblings (and Mon nite futures)
403
the ES daily chart pattern make me comfy holding shorts overnight... look at those wicks, bear top tails.... propped up but cannot hold
400
well... 100% winning daytrades today,,, not lots of profit because of narrow range, and none "took off" ... but some profits anyways
354
45.95 cover most of short if filled
352
93% confid swing short signal here...if we close near this ..... same signal setup as b4...imho
328
3 cents from my stop....might get hit and need to take first loss of day...grr
322
it "appears" the move down was real, the move up was fake... but who knows...
320
this move up is on lighter vol....poss headfake this time...
304
right now...MM are selling ...shorting or taking profits... but they do like to play games...
253
starting to go down some here...not sure if headfake...dont think so....
239
nervous qqqq shorts could exit here breakeven... if nervouse for end of day ramp higher...
229
YES. qqqq going down,,,,dribbling..trickle... but short still valid for now
220
tbt going down nicely to allow more long...but not ready yet here for me
219
qqqq bias still down to me slightly...
205
*covered short, not sold, the qqqq.......sorry
204
sold 50% of qqqq at breakeven at 4608 ... extra qqqq short accomplished its purpose in lowering the avg cost.... reducing risk
201
more short qqqq at 4611...same stop as rest
157
changed qqqq sstop .17 for now...
151
no losses today so far,,,,but might need to take one on the qqqq short....watching...stop still at .15
143
if qqqq get to 4611 i will consider looking for an exit point to cover the daytrade short...
130
poss 3min HS bear pattrn in QQQQ
128
looking for qqqq to stay under 2612,,,pref under 4608...last 4606
126
if qid closes like this chart pattern now, i have a 93% confidence setup for swing via qid.... its an EARLY entry thus suspecrt to higher risk
119
marketmakers dropping the bids and assks again heree...bearish..mildly tho...they do love to play games..
115
PG breaking down nicely.... starting to crush its bull flag...but not yet......
112
PG could be forming bull flag...danger for my short...watching... stop at 6207
103
the last qqqq short daytrade is riskier...short near LOD...mmomentum trade....with reasonable stop
102
shorting more qqqq at 4604 here...
1254
exitng 75% qqqq long here at 4608. marketmakers are selling, for now...
1249
qqqq marginal break over the 133t DTL... could go either way,,,, bias slight up now
1247
qqqq short stop now at 4604 for free trade near breakeven
1235
scalping today is only way... with idea that scalp might get a larger move...for me
1234
if qqqq can hold 46.000 then a mini bull 3min diverg will form that should give a scalp pop up
1233
nervous qqqq long would exit here at .04 for near breakeven... i'll stay long (and also short lol)
1214
then 4622 is next trendline R
1211
qqqq broke north over the DTL and now headed to test 4310 R line..another DTL
1210
qqqq charts suggest at least a lil pop up.... its tite tday. last 4606
1151
qqqq bull crouch tiger here but its contgratrend so weaker....
1150
tryihg the qqqq long here for daytrade scalp...tite stop...and also short at same time
1142
also i am in QID swing so i can participate in more qqqq down if it comes, the qqqq short is a scalp daytrade....
1140
there was a large vol push a few min ago to .07...which is why i tightened stop (one reason). charrts suggest
poss chop too
1139
one penny cent from the stop....
1137
stop qqqq at .06 for 50% to take lock some profits
1129
charts still suggest at least the .97 target tho
1128
wow these narrow range days r very hard for daytrades... if the qqqq starts moving over .07 and doesnt hold down there, will cover yet again for small measley profit
1127
PG continues its decline...last 6166
1119
trade::::::::::;; qqq targets for short 45.97, 45.94, 45.80... 4594 is yest LOD so if that breaks, could see fireworks
1117
taking a few scalp
profits at LOD here in qqqq....saving
rest.... stop moved to breakeven for
another free trade... thus far today is
narrow range so hard for the daytrades with small returns so far... needing to trade many shares
1115
looking for q to stay under .08 for daytrade
1114
but a move up in q to 46.24 is possible to test that DTL...so watching this short carefully here
1112
charts suggest break of the qqqq .04 for 45.98 and stall there. of course a bounce at the .04 would be normal
1111
qqqq about to test LOD here
1108
PG stalled at 61.87 or 5 cents over the .82 target expected.....and last is 61.72.... i remain short PG
1107
i want some more skf....but not ready to buy yet... the 15 and 60min need to chop around some more. last 23.85
1100
for awhile now, the 10,753 is the upper limit i think the dow will attain, if it gets that high
1054
3min qqqq is in a coil, with a marginal break lower. expect backtest back up would be ok for the short pos.
1052
for any real traction, the QID needs to get over 19.07 for a stab at 19.97.... still lots of R at 19
1050
ok qqqq broke the .12 mini support...see if sustains... scalp target first 45.98 with stall there
1048
looking for qqqq to stay under .17 for now... last 4613
1047
shorting qqqq 46.13
1039
ok...out of the spy at a paltry profit on that scalp... at least was hedged in event of higher HOD
1032
taking some scalp profits on half of SPY here at .97....its looking weak
1028
spy stop raised to 112.91 for free trade,,,just over breakeven... this daytrade i have a tighter stop than normally cuz spy at some R up here.... can always re-enter.... under .91 suggests poss .80
1026
PG stall at .82 expected....
1024
spy mental stop 112.84. will not auto sell at .84 but will consider exit...depending on chart landscape
1022
PG short is acting up...moving up.. but i remain short the small PG position
1018
90% spy bull crouch tiger....with spy over 112.86
1017
paying the premium on spy cuz looks like poss breakout higher
1016
in spy long 112.90.... 25% position daytrade
1012
buy spy lim 112.84 if filled...below mkt... last 112.90
1008
qid stall at 1885 expected. last 1882
1007
spy 112.61 might interest me for long if it gets there...unsure...day only. last 112.79
1005
charts do suggest a bounce in the spy maybe... might look for a long daytrade only..no entry yet for me. last spy 112,80
942
conversely QID swing is down red at -3.1%, but not bad for a 2x etf... stillholding it
9:33 AM
setting stops in my tbt mid term-- mentioned it at 44,,,last 51.15... may sell and buy back
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
the ES daily chart pattern make me comfy holding shorts overnight... look at those wicks, bear top tails.... propped up but cannot hold
400
well... 100% winning daytrades today,,, not lots of profit because of narrow range, and none "took off" ... but some profits anyways
354
45.95 cover most of short if filled
352
93% confid swing short signal here...if we close near this ..... same signal setup as b4...imho
328
3 cents from my stop....might get hit and need to take first loss of day...grr
322
it "appears" the move down was real, the move up was fake... but who knows...
320
this move up is on lighter vol....poss headfake this time...
304
right now...MM are selling ...shorting or taking profits... but they do like to play games...
253
starting to go down some here...not sure if headfake...dont think so....
239
nervous qqqq shorts could exit here breakeven... if nervouse for end of day ramp higher...
229
YES. qqqq going down,,,,dribbling..trickle... but short still valid for now
220
tbt going down nicely to allow more long...but not ready yet here for me
219
qqqq bias still down to me slightly...
205
*covered short, not sold, the qqqq.......sorry
204
sold 50% of qqqq at breakeven at 4608 ... extra qqqq short accomplished its purpose in lowering the avg cost.... reducing risk
201
more short qqqq at 4611...same stop as rest
157
changed qqqq sstop .17 for now...
151
no losses today so far,,,,but might need to take one on the qqqq short....watching...stop still at .15
143
if qqqq get to 4611 i will consider looking for an exit point to cover the daytrade short...
130
poss 3min HS bear pattrn in QQQQ
128
looking for qqqq to stay under 2612,,,pref under 4608...last 4606
126
if qid closes like this chart pattern now, i have a 93% confidence setup for swing via qid.... its an EARLY entry thus suspecrt to higher risk
119
marketmakers dropping the bids and assks again heree...bearish..mildly tho...they do love to play games..
115
PG breaking down nicely.... starting to crush its bull flag...but not yet......
112
PG could be forming bull flag...danger for my short...watching... stop at 6207
103
the last qqqq short daytrade is riskier...short near LOD...mmomentum trade....with reasonable stop
102
shorting more qqqq at 4604 here...
1254
exitng 75% qqqq long here at 4608. marketmakers are selling, for now...
1249
qqqq marginal break over the 133t DTL... could go either way,,,, bias slight up now
1247
qqqq short stop now at 4604 for free trade near breakeven
1235
scalping today is only way... with idea that scalp might get a larger move...for me
1234
if qqqq can hold 46.000 then a mini bull 3min diverg will form that should give a scalp pop up
1233
nervous qqqq long would exit here at .04 for near breakeven... i'll stay long (and also short lol)
1214
then 4622 is next trendline R
1211
qqqq broke north over the DTL and now headed to test 4310 R line..another DTL
1210
qqqq charts suggest at least a lil pop up.... its tite tday. last 4606
1151
qqqq bull crouch tiger here but its contgratrend so weaker....
1150
tryihg the qqqq long here for daytrade scalp...tite stop...and also short at same time
1142
also i am in QID swing so i can participate in more qqqq down if it comes, the qqqq short is a scalp daytrade....
1140
there was a large vol push a few min ago to .07...which is why i tightened stop (one reason). charrts suggest
poss chop too
1139
one penny cent from the stop....
1137
stop qqqq at .06 for 50% to take lock some profits
1129
charts still suggest at least the .97 target tho
1128
wow these narrow range days r very hard for daytrades... if the qqqq starts moving over .07 and doesnt hold down there, will cover yet again for small measley profit
1127
PG continues its decline...last 6166
1119
trade::::::::::;; qqq targets for short 45.97, 45.94, 45.80... 4594 is yest LOD so if that breaks, could see fireworks
1117
taking a few scalp
profits at LOD here in qqqq....saving
rest.... stop moved to breakeven for
another free trade... thus far today is
narrow range so hard for the daytrades with small returns so far... needing to trade many shares
1115
looking for q to stay under .08 for daytrade
1114
but a move up in q to 46.24 is possible to test that DTL...so watching this short carefully here
1112
charts suggest break of the qqqq .04 for 45.98 and stall there. of course a bounce at the .04 would be normal
1111
qqqq about to test LOD here
1108
PG stalled at 61.87 or 5 cents over the .82 target expected.....and last is 61.72.... i remain short PG
1107
i want some more skf....but not ready to buy yet... the 15 and 60min need to chop around some more. last 23.85
1100
for awhile now, the 10,753 is the upper limit i think the dow will attain, if it gets that high
1054
3min qqqq is in a coil, with a marginal break lower. expect backtest back up would be ok for the short pos.
1052
for any real traction, the QID needs to get over 19.07 for a stab at 19.97.... still lots of R at 19
1050
ok qqqq broke the .12 mini support...see if sustains... scalp target first 45.98 with stall there
1048
looking for qqqq to stay under .17 for now... last 4613
1047
shorting qqqq 46.13
1039
ok...out of the spy at a paltry profit on that scalp... at least was hedged in event of higher HOD
1032
taking some scalp profits on half of SPY here at .97....its looking weak
1028
spy stop raised to 112.91 for free trade,,,just over breakeven... this daytrade i have a tighter stop than normally cuz spy at some R up here.... can always re-enter.... under .91 suggests poss .80
1026
PG stall at .82 expected....
1024
spy mental stop 112.84. will not auto sell at .84 but will consider exit...depending on chart landscape
1022
PG short is acting up...moving up.. but i remain short the small PG position
1018
90% spy bull crouch tiger....with spy over 112.86
1017
paying the premium on spy cuz looks like poss breakout higher
1016
in spy long 112.90.... 25% position daytrade
1012
buy spy lim 112.84 if filled...below mkt... last 112.90
1008
qid stall at 1885 expected. last 1882
1007
spy 112.61 might interest me for long if it gets there...unsure...day only. last 112.79
1005
charts do suggest a bounce in the spy maybe... might look for a long daytrade only..no entry yet for me. last spy 112,80
942
conversely QID swing is down red at -3.1%, but not bad for a 2x etf... stillholding it
9:33 AM
setting stops in my tbt mid term-- mentioned it at 44,,,last 51.15... may sell and buy back
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Monday, December 28, 2009
Still expecting pullback,,, skf srs qid
I will try to update this later with price targets, charts, and further details.
I know that there are many bullish people out there now.
We might get a bullish breakout in the coming days/ weeks, BUT, similar to Thursday post below, To me, the charts still suggest a pullback to lower prices in the SPX and QQQQ. Charts indicate some choppy action, with possible higher prices first, but there are bearish divergences in the 60 minute charts, and bearish divergences are forming in the daily. Possible evening star bearish candle patterns developing. 60 min macd hist declining while prices rise (bearish).
I remain positioned short in the swing positions via skf, qid, and short PG. I will look to add some shorts in the financials skf and real estate srs. The additional SKF may come first, i'm still waiting for the right entry in the SRS.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
I know that there are many bullish people out there now.
We might get a bullish breakout in the coming days/ weeks, BUT, similar to Thursday post below, To me, the charts still suggest a pullback to lower prices in the SPX and QQQQ. Charts indicate some choppy action, with possible higher prices first, but there are bearish divergences in the 60 minute charts, and bearish divergences are forming in the daily. Possible evening star bearish candle patterns developing. 60 min macd hist declining while prices rise (bearish).
I remain positioned short in the swing positions via skf, qid, and short PG. I will look to add some shorts in the financials skf and real estate srs. The additional SKF may come first, i'm still waiting for the right entry in the SRS.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
DOW 10,754 the high for 2010???
Since Dec 19, 2009, the DOW 10,754 has been key to me. Nothing has changed, it is still key to me, if we get there. expecting Resistance and reversal. i've already taken some small short positions (skf, PG) and plan to add when appropriate. DOW might not make the 10,750 but it certainly is within striking distance, although the current 10,500 also has some R.
if dow gets 10,754 i will be interested
to see the reaction there... actually
right now i dont think it will exceed
the 10,754 in 2010, unless chart
landscape changes. i realise that
sounds very bearish. it all depends on the market reaction at 10,754 if it gets there.
December 19, 2009 post: http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2009/12/dow-10754-resistance.html
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
if dow gets 10,754 i will be interested
to see the reaction there... actually
right now i dont think it will exceed
the 10,754 in 2010, unless chart
landscape changes. i realise that
sounds very bearish. it all depends on the market reaction at 10,754 if it gets there.
December 19, 2009 post: http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2009/12/dow-10754-resistance.html
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Sunday, December 27, 2009
monday ramblings / ES Futures Sunday night
TRADE: Closed some qqqq at 45.99 and some at 45.11 (both profits). Flat on daytrade qqqq. all shorts covered. still have the QID swing mid term.
1204
ok...i'm off for now... stops on qqqq set at 46.24 to cover...just near breakeven... will check back in 1-3 hours to see if i want to cover
1126
qqqq stops on 75% moved to 46.24.... near breakeven (small loss if stoped)a
1112
increasing position size in shares due to limited movement... need more shares to make $$$ here
1104
see if we get 4615 qqqq backtest here or not...and then what happns at 4615
1100
ok.... qqqq broke higher from the bear desc triagle...see what happens at backtest... and might cover soon to close the trade
1055
qqqq is testing the DTL resis now at .17.... if it does not hold down,,may exit the short early...can always re-entera
1051
45.98 is target of desc triangle but might find support at 46.04 instead. Tho 45.99 is another lower qqq support area, all close to the 45.98 target
1049
qqqq 3min has bear desc triangle...needs break under 4614 to resolve to downside
1047
PG next down targets are 6076 and 6041 ... those are both important support levels... see if theyhold or break lower.
1045
PG short doing well...last 60.94....a
1040
for now, charts still say "stay short qqqq daytrade", for me.. at least until the DTL breaks higher
1038
clearly qqqq 46.14 is impt mini support intraday here... watching to see if it holds or breaks lower...
1037
qqqq 3min DTL resist at 46.21.... see if it holds... it has held thus far... last 46.19
1027
if qqqq holds .14 here i may take small scalp profit and re-enter...watching... still in for now
10:05
willl short qqqq 46.22 if filled..last 46.20
9:59
PG is now
backtesting the triangle
breakout...could move up here...
nervous PG could cover here for small
profit.. i will stay short... 61.17 last...its at the triangle line now
9:56
PG short is still valid... trade premise still holds... shorted PG on Friday. it gapped up but has lost
9:44
thus far, qqqq did d perfect trendline touch at the 46.28 and backed down as expected. HOD is exactly at my 46.28 target. but of course the trendline slope is up, so it can continue to chop higher and "hug" the trendline. Charts do suggest a move down in the qqqq but might need to wait until after Jan. 1 for it
9:36 AM
qqqq channel R at 41.29 on the newly formed bull steep up channel ... last 4621
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
1204
ok...i'm off for now... stops on qqqq set at 46.24 to cover...just near breakeven... will check back in 1-3 hours to see if i want to cover
1126
qqqq stops on 75% moved to 46.24.... near breakeven (small loss if stoped)a
1112
increasing position size in shares due to limited movement... need more shares to make $$$ here
1104
see if we get 4615 qqqq backtest here or not...and then what happns at 4615
1100
ok.... qqqq broke higher from the bear desc triagle...see what happens at backtest... and might cover soon to close the trade
1055
qqqq is testing the DTL resis now at .17.... if it does not hold down,,may exit the short early...can always re-entera
1051
45.98 is target of desc triangle but might find support at 46.04 instead. Tho 45.99 is another lower qqq support area, all close to the 45.98 target
1049
qqqq 3min has bear desc triangle...needs break under 4614 to resolve to downside
1047
PG next down targets are 6076 and 6041 ... those are both important support levels... see if theyhold or break lower.
1045
PG short doing well...last 60.94....a
1040
for now, charts still say "stay short qqqq daytrade", for me.. at least until the DTL breaks higher
1038
clearly qqqq 46.14 is impt mini support intraday here... watching to see if it holds or breaks lower...
1037
qqqq 3min DTL resist at 46.21.... see if it holds... it has held thus far... last 46.19
1027
if qqqq holds .14 here i may take small scalp profit and re-enter...watching... still in for now
10:05
willl short qqqq 46.22 if filled..last 46.20
9:59
PG is now
backtesting the triangle
breakout...could move up here...
nervous PG could cover here for small
profit.. i will stay short... 61.17 last...its at the triangle line now
9:56
PG short is still valid... trade premise still holds... shorted PG on Friday. it gapped up but has lost
9:44
thus far, qqqq did d perfect trendline touch at the 46.28 and backed down as expected. HOD is exactly at my 46.28 target. but of course the trendline slope is up, so it can continue to chop higher and "hug" the trendline. Charts do suggest a move down in the qqqq but might need to wait until after Jan. 1 for it
9:36 AM
qqqq channel R at 41.29 on the newly formed bull steep up channel ... last 4621
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Still expecting QQQQ pullback
Many things to say. I will update this later.
For now, notice how far away the LOW of the candle is from the red daily 5 moving average. Notice that since August, the candle lows tend to "hug" this, because the 5 MA is very short (unlike 20 or 50 period moving averages).
The 5 MA represents "support" and the QQQQ are too far away, on light volume.
Also notice the bear divergence forming on the MACD histogram.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
For now, notice how far away the LOW of the candle is from the red daily 5 moving average. Notice that since August, the candle lows tend to "hug" this, because the 5 MA is very short (unlike 20 or 50 period moving averages).
The 5 MA represents "support" and the QQQQ are too far away, on light volume.
Also notice the bear divergence forming on the MACD histogram.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
thurs ramblings (and Wednesday eve / Thurs morning pre-market ES )
1248
i will keep a small PG as swing
1231
PG bias still down now...
1229
stop 6134 PG..near breakeven...shouldnt go there or i'm not interested
1228
last pg 61.24...needs to break under 6122
1215
PG stop 61.43 cover
1211
PG charts changed today... i am seriously considering covering this short today until they make up their mind... 60min shows poss pop up, and daily also... this was not like this at 9am today
1207
skf still looks good. 23.90 last
1157
6126 break should give 6117 next PG
1156
considering GE long in the coming days... not ready yet for me....
1155
bear HS forming PG 2minute
1151
i mgiht exit this PG short today depending on the close... or reduce shares... there is poss bull inv HS on 60min...
1142
qqqq .93...near 46.00
1141
qqqq starting to form 3min bear diverg... unknown if it will have any effect today
1131
hmm poss bull inv HS forming on PG 60min.. watching this since i am short....
1129
if pg stays under 6140 here it should see 6120 6110 again next
1112
ah... now PG is showing it's normal pokiness.. in a 2 cent range lol
1056
lesson i re-learned: last month (the hard way): i exited a trade when i should not have. Why? because i was looking at profit / loss... NOT at the price action. If the stops are set, if the position size is correct, then there is no reason to worry about the loss. you already expect it and are budgeted for it. Look at the chart, if the CHART says "exit"... then exit.... (of course,,,, taking profits is good... but don't let emotion take over cuz of looking at P/L)
1051
PG targets (lower cuz short): 60.83, 60.49, 58.54, 58.30
1048
PG could see 6160 today...still like short tho under 6182
1043
PG is very active today... for PG... it can often be pokey.. it's whipping around here... still short,,, 6130 vs 6127... nervous PG could cover here...i will stay
1024
qqqq 60min setting up bear diverg that suggests test of 45.64, 45.40, 44.70... last 4585
1019
qqqq is setting up a large bear diverg in 60min chart
1016
the spx broke higher out of the bear rising wedge... no surprise... i've mentioned several times that they have a tendency to break higher, then fall later
1000
PG...looking for it to hold under 6127 for another trip down...
958
as expected PG hit 6111 near 6110 by one cent...has bounced up to 6125....
951
DOW is up, but PG (a dow component) is down. WHy? Strategy: BUY LONG stocks STRONGER than DOW, or SELL SHORT stocks weaker. The DOW has been struggling lately, so last eve I looked for short opps. PG charts are weaker than DOW INDU, so I chose PG. Then, even if DOW goes up, the PG should lag.... if DOW goes down, PG should lead. PG does have a tendency to be pokey sometimes though.
950
6110 stall expected in PG.... prob bounce UP there
949
PG at 61.17 now from 6130 short... doing ok
9:35
shorted PG 61.30
8:43
If able, today, I will be looking for longer term entries in the SRS SKF FAZ. 3-12 months. WIll also daytrade and swing if merited. Also looking at maybe GE long for swing / daytrade not long term, with tight stops.
8:31
Yesterday, PREMARKET, ES hit 1120, but it was never retested or hit yesterday during market hours 930-400pm. This also means that the SPX never go to the ES 1120 equivalent. This has happened before, due to the ES afterhours shenanigans. Today, premkt again, it hit 1119.75. Will the ES test the 1119.75 during market hours today? Will SPX make a new high today? I continue to expect at least a minor pullback in the SPX SPY QQQQ in coming hours / days.
I think this happened in July. I did not check to confirm, but I am pretty sure that the ES hit a low in July , and that low was never tested during market hours since then. I remember because I was short at the time, waiting for it to retest during market hours so that I could cover my SPY shorts (was short at the time).
8:29 AM
*** The NYSE and
NASDAQ will close trading early (at
1:00 PM ET) on Thursday, December
24, 2009. Amex will end trading (1) for
those products that normally cease
trading at 4:00 p.m. at 1:00 p.m. and
(2) for those products that normally
cease trading at 4:15 p.m. at 1:15 p.m.
The AMEX will start accepting orders
for after-hours trading at 1:15 p.m. and
all eligible orders will be executed by
1:30 p.m
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
i will keep a small PG as swing
1231
PG bias still down now...
1229
stop 6134 PG..near breakeven...shouldnt go there or i'm not interested
1228
last pg 61.24...needs to break under 6122
1215
PG stop 61.43 cover
1211
PG charts changed today... i am seriously considering covering this short today until they make up their mind... 60min shows poss pop up, and daily also... this was not like this at 9am today
1207
skf still looks good. 23.90 last
1157
6126 break should give 6117 next PG
1156
considering GE long in the coming days... not ready yet for me....
1155
bear HS forming PG 2minute
1151
i mgiht exit this PG short today depending on the close... or reduce shares... there is poss bull inv HS on 60min...
1142
qqqq .93...near 46.00
1141
qqqq starting to form 3min bear diverg... unknown if it will have any effect today
1131
hmm poss bull inv HS forming on PG 60min.. watching this since i am short....
1129
if pg stays under 6140 here it should see 6120 6110 again next
1112
ah... now PG is showing it's normal pokiness.. in a 2 cent range lol
1056
lesson i re-learned: last month (the hard way): i exited a trade when i should not have. Why? because i was looking at profit / loss... NOT at the price action. If the stops are set, if the position size is correct, then there is no reason to worry about the loss. you already expect it and are budgeted for it. Look at the chart, if the CHART says "exit"... then exit.... (of course,,,, taking profits is good... but don't let emotion take over cuz of looking at P/L)
1051
PG targets (lower cuz short): 60.83, 60.49, 58.54, 58.30
1048
PG could see 6160 today...still like short tho under 6182
1043
PG is very active today... for PG... it can often be pokey.. it's whipping around here... still short,,, 6130 vs 6127... nervous PG could cover here...i will stay
1024
qqqq 60min setting up bear diverg that suggests test of 45.64, 45.40, 44.70... last 4585
1019
qqqq is setting up a large bear diverg in 60min chart
1016
the spx broke higher out of the bear rising wedge... no surprise... i've mentioned several times that they have a tendency to break higher, then fall later
1000
PG...looking for it to hold under 6127 for another trip down...
958
as expected PG hit 6111 near 6110 by one cent...has bounced up to 6125....
951
DOW is up, but PG (a dow component) is down. WHy? Strategy: BUY LONG stocks STRONGER than DOW, or SELL SHORT stocks weaker. The DOW has been struggling lately, so last eve I looked for short opps. PG charts are weaker than DOW INDU, so I chose PG. Then, even if DOW goes up, the PG should lag.... if DOW goes down, PG should lead. PG does have a tendency to be pokey sometimes though.
950
6110 stall expected in PG.... prob bounce UP there
949
PG at 61.17 now from 6130 short... doing ok
9:35
shorted PG 61.30
8:43
If able, today, I will be looking for longer term entries in the SRS SKF FAZ. 3-12 months. WIll also daytrade and swing if merited. Also looking at maybe GE long for swing / daytrade not long term, with tight stops.
8:31
Yesterday, PREMARKET, ES hit 1120, but it was never retested or hit yesterday during market hours 930-400pm. This also means that the SPX never go to the ES 1120 equivalent. This has happened before, due to the ES afterhours shenanigans. Today, premkt again, it hit 1119.75. Will the ES test the 1119.75 during market hours today? Will SPX make a new high today? I continue to expect at least a minor pullback in the SPX SPY QQQQ in coming hours / days.
I think this happened in July. I did not check to confirm, but I am pretty sure that the ES hit a low in July , and that low was never tested during market hours since then. I remember because I was short at the time, waiting for it to retest during market hours so that I could cover my SPY shorts (was short at the time).
8:29 AM
*** The NYSE and
NASDAQ will close trading early (at
1:00 PM ET) on Thursday, December
24, 2009. Amex will end trading (1) for
those products that normally cease
trading at 4:00 p.m. at 1:00 p.m. and
(2) for those products that normally
cease trading at 4:15 p.m. at 1:15 p.m.
The AMEX will start accepting orders
for after-hours trading at 1:15 p.m. and
all eligible orders will be executed by
1:30 p.m
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Continue to expect a pullback in SPX
There are many bearish signals that point at least to a "normal" pullback. MACD Stoch, chart patterns, rsi, etc....
Here's what would constitute a pullback in the SPX, for me:
1. A break below 1116 spx
2. Any bounce after the break would need to stay under 1121
3. If a new high is made before 1 and 2 happen, then substitute "new high 3" for 1121.
This could result in the test of 1085ish. IF IF the 1085 , then breaks then to 916 (will get more precise targets later)
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
May update later and add more detail....
Here's what would constitute a pullback in the SPX, for me:
1. A break below 1116 spx
2. Any bounce after the break would need to stay under 1121
3. If a new high is made before 1 and 2 happen, then substitute "new high 3" for 1121.
This could result in the test of 1085ish. IF IF the 1085 , then breaks then to 916 (will get more precise targets later)
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
wedn ramblings (and Tues eve ES futures)
351
lim sell 10% skf 24.21
350
yea the skf is outperforming qid, as expected
326
4547 support stall in the q
313
qqqq est close.... 45.37
310
charts suggest my QID will prob chop around for 4-7 days (not div by 3 :) ) before a larger move
301
this could be it...for the qqqq.... 4557... for today...lets see...weakening....
247
so we will prob see that wick matched in coming days....
247
*45.2289.,.... that matches the spike down
246
1 million shares qqqq red 45.22.... it's printede in the time and sales... fwiw... yes one million
243
i may keep the QID overnight swing...depends on close... riskier trade... but to me its a short at Resistance....
239
qqqq 6 cents from the .62 target
237
if your IRS status is "trading a a business".... it is much easier :) for active traders... fwiw
236
grrr i typed my skf order 10 seconds to laqte... will not chase here
233
i will skf buy limit 24.07 if filled....last 2412... scaling back in
230
in the recent past, the qqqq did gap up the next day after a trickle up day like this... so could get scary for shorts... but i see a pullback coming....
227
i'd try a qqqq long on the backtest of the trendline... (if it happened)
339
i will sell some skf prob for scalp profit....but def keeping a swing size portion
226
right now, my charts suggest that will not happen...
225
right now, my charts suggest that will not happen...
223
i would consider qqqq bullish if 1. it broke the UTL (close but has not)... 2 Backtests the trendline, 3. pivots up off the backtest. otherwise, this qqqq action could just be exhaustion.
218
skf looks better than qid
214
the daily qqqq has a bear diverg forming... the bear diverg have been accurate and played out since 8/21 on daily scale
212
but... 45.66 is also UTL resist...depending on how the line is drawn
211
there is room in QQQQ uptrend R line up to a touch at 45.78ish...
204
qqqq boll band R is 45.56
203
they r bidding it up and selling into it, from what i see
158
marketmakers playing games,,, they are buying here, on the bid
154
the qqqq have moved almost straight up for last 2 hours, but only 11 cents in 2 hours......
144
the biggest "move" today was down, 9:50 to 10:20,,,, then we inched up slowly.... distribution??
142
poss dbl top intraday only in spy 1333t
136
the skf candle pattern of a green large candle with 3 small red ones is often a continutaton pattern, up in this case for skf (60 min). not ready to buy yet tho for me
134
this action today is favorable to the skf,,,, for later swing entry, not yet for me
129
marketmakers back on the sell side again here...for now,,,, but they quickly switch sides if needed.....
127
marketmakers back on the sell side again here...for now (bearish)
125
marginal break of the high in qqqq ....hit .52..... its' inching to .62 target, normally it would be there by now
114
one concern about being short here today is that the ES might want to re-test the pre-market high at 1120 (not seen during market hours)
108
this hourly candle pattern in spx qqqq etc is very bearish, tho it can continue for days in the low vol end of year. not suggesting a major trend change, but pullback should be forthcoming, tho maybe after jan 1.
103
QID bull crouch tiger if the qqqq stays under 45.50... 91% confidence level
101
charts say lower qqqq to me, today
1258
the qqqq marginal new intraday high did not trigger stops to pop higher...bearish.... see what happens on next try
1258
watching the skf to see if it puts in higher intraday low here....LOD 23.94....last 24.13
1257
bear shoot stars in ES QQQQ...on 3min...lower timeframe signal less strong... R held on first try is normal tho
1253
qqqq hit the .49 target...watching for the .62... the 45.62 should see a stall pullback if it gets there, i think
1246
Market Makers are leaning on the sell side for now,,, with the bid to buy much lower...in qqqq
1236
grrr this qid is stuck in a 2 cent range.... zzzzzz
1234
this qqqq bear rising wedge is getting tight... however, they do have a nasty habit of breaking higher before they exert the bearish influence for a move down after the pop up...
thus far qqqq has hit 45.47, or 2 cents from 4549 target. a breakout target would be 45..62... i remain short in qqqq via long qid tho. for now.
what do i mean "behaving"? when i say "behaving" its shorthand for "this position is acting the way i expected. the trade premise is still solid"
qid is behaving here. last 19.36
conversely the 3min has a bull pattern in qqqq 3min suggests 45.62 possible... so could go either way...watching it ..
among other things, qqqq had triple bear diverg...but on the 3min chart... is not as strong a signal....
the 3min qqqq is weakening which is why i tried an early QID.... if it strengthens in qqqq i will exit qid then re-enter
TRADE: in QID at 19.35 stop 19 for now. will raise stop later. QID might want 19.10....
small spy positions would exit now...risk...exited 50% at .87
yes.large spy positions
would sell some here at R in strengths
at .94ish
.83 stop on 50% of spy
spy chart target pattern 112.18
looking for spy to hold .77....last .80
nervous spy would exit now breakeven and take the gift... i will stay long for now
spy 3 10 15 min continue to suggest pop higher in spy...stall at .95
spy mental stop .66
qqqq approaching the .49 target from yesterday...last 45.40
spy 3min has bullish rsi swing fail ...daytrade...suggests higher spy at 111.73
spy bull crouching tiger if spy stays over .67..... tiger at 85% confid now
adding some more spy here for daytrade at .71
selling my skf swing from before... will look to reenter again.... 24.26
1002
spy backtesting the broken coil line in daily. near perfect touch
951
spy targets 112.30, 112.38, 112.64
9:48
TRADE: early entry. SPY long 111.91. stop 111 for now, will raise later.
8:54
As mentioned last night, a backtest of ES around 1107 could be expected in the coming 1-8 days. ES broke over the DTL daily and usually will backtest. The ability to hold over or break below that test should give some clues to market direction.
8:48 Wedn
ES made a marginal new high of 1120 (1119 prev) that has been rejected thus far. Last ES is 1116, which is an impt support level for bulls.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
lim sell 10% skf 24.21
350
yea the skf is outperforming qid, as expected
326
4547 support stall in the q
313
qqqq est close.... 45.37
310
charts suggest my QID will prob chop around for 4-7 days (not div by 3 :) ) before a larger move
301
this could be it...for the qqqq.... 4557... for today...lets see...weakening....
247
so we will prob see that wick matched in coming days....
247
*45.2289.,.... that matches the spike down
246
1 million shares qqqq red 45.22.... it's printede in the time and sales... fwiw... yes one million
243
i may keep the QID overnight swing...depends on close... riskier trade... but to me its a short at Resistance....
239
qqqq 6 cents from the .62 target
237
if your IRS status is "trading a a business".... it is much easier :) for active traders... fwiw
236
grrr i typed my skf order 10 seconds to laqte... will not chase here
233
i will skf buy limit 24.07 if filled....last 2412... scaling back in
230
in the recent past, the qqqq did gap up the next day after a trickle up day like this... so could get scary for shorts... but i see a pullback coming....
227
i'd try a qqqq long on the backtest of the trendline... (if it happened)
339
i will sell some skf prob for scalp profit....but def keeping a swing size portion
226
right now, my charts suggest that will not happen...
225
right now, my charts suggest that will not happen...
223
i would consider qqqq bullish if 1. it broke the UTL (close but has not)... 2 Backtests the trendline, 3. pivots up off the backtest. otherwise, this qqqq action could just be exhaustion.
218
skf looks better than qid
214
the daily qqqq has a bear diverg forming... the bear diverg have been accurate and played out since 8/21 on daily scale
212
but... 45.66 is also UTL resist...depending on how the line is drawn
211
there is room in QQQQ uptrend R line up to a touch at 45.78ish...
204
qqqq boll band R is 45.56
203
they r bidding it up and selling into it, from what i see
158
marketmakers playing games,,, they are buying here, on the bid
154
the qqqq have moved almost straight up for last 2 hours, but only 11 cents in 2 hours......
144
the biggest "move" today was down, 9:50 to 10:20,,,, then we inched up slowly.... distribution??
142
poss dbl top intraday only in spy 1333t
136
the skf candle pattern of a green large candle with 3 small red ones is often a continutaton pattern, up in this case for skf (60 min). not ready to buy yet tho for me
134
this action today is favorable to the skf,,,, for later swing entry, not yet for me
129
marketmakers back on the sell side again here...for now,,,, but they quickly switch sides if needed.....
127
marketmakers back on the sell side again here...for now (bearish)
125
marginal break of the high in qqqq ....hit .52..... its' inching to .62 target, normally it would be there by now
114
one concern about being short here today is that the ES might want to re-test the pre-market high at 1120 (not seen during market hours)
108
this hourly candle pattern in spx qqqq etc is very bearish, tho it can continue for days in the low vol end of year. not suggesting a major trend change, but pullback should be forthcoming, tho maybe after jan 1.
103
QID bull crouch tiger if the qqqq stays under 45.50... 91% confidence level
101
charts say lower qqqq to me, today
1258
the qqqq marginal new intraday high did not trigger stops to pop higher...bearish.... see what happens on next try
1258
watching the skf to see if it puts in higher intraday low here....LOD 23.94....last 24.13
1257
bear shoot stars in ES QQQQ...on 3min...lower timeframe signal less strong... R held on first try is normal tho
1253
qqqq hit the .49 target...watching for the .62... the 45.62 should see a stall pullback if it gets there, i think
1246
Market Makers are leaning on the sell side for now,,, with the bid to buy much lower...in qqqq
1236
grrr this qid is stuck in a 2 cent range.... zzzzzz
1234
this qqqq bear rising wedge is getting tight... however, they do have a nasty habit of breaking higher before they exert the bearish influence for a move down after the pop up...
thus far qqqq has hit 45.47, or 2 cents from 4549 target. a breakout target would be 45..62... i remain short in qqqq via long qid tho. for now.
what do i mean "behaving"? when i say "behaving" its shorthand for "this position is acting the way i expected. the trade premise is still solid"
qid is behaving here. last 19.36
conversely the 3min has a bull pattern in qqqq 3min suggests 45.62 possible... so could go either way...watching it ..
among other things, qqqq had triple bear diverg...but on the 3min chart... is not as strong a signal....
the 3min qqqq is weakening which is why i tried an early QID.... if it strengthens in qqqq i will exit qid then re-enter
TRADE: in QID at 19.35 stop 19 for now. will raise stop later. QID might want 19.10....
small spy positions would exit now...risk...exited 50% at .87
yes.large spy positions
would sell some here at R in strengths
at .94ish
.83 stop on 50% of spy
spy chart target pattern 112.18
looking for spy to hold .77....last .80
nervous spy would exit now breakeven and take the gift... i will stay long for now
spy 3 10 15 min continue to suggest pop higher in spy...stall at .95
spy mental stop .66
qqqq approaching the .49 target from yesterday...last 45.40
spy 3min has bullish rsi swing fail ...daytrade...suggests higher spy at 111.73
spy bull crouching tiger if spy stays over .67..... tiger at 85% confid now
adding some more spy here for daytrade at .71
selling my skf swing from before... will look to reenter again.... 24.26
1002
spy backtesting the broken coil line in daily. near perfect touch
951
spy targets 112.30, 112.38, 112.64
9:48
TRADE: early entry. SPY long 111.91. stop 111 for now, will raise later.
8:54
As mentioned last night, a backtest of ES around 1107 could be expected in the coming 1-8 days. ES broke over the DTL daily and usually will backtest. The ability to hold over or break below that test should give some clues to market direction.
8:48 Wedn
ES made a marginal new high of 1120 (1119 prev) that has been rejected thus far. Last ES is 1116, which is an impt support level for bulls.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
SPX vs SPY... compare both
I've mentioned before that I like to compare SPX ES and SPY together because they sometimes have differences. If one is buying the SPY etf, this could make a difference. The differences are usually slight, but are there.
In the charts below, notice that SPX made higher highs on the trendline but SPY made lower highs. Also the slope of the support trendline that connects the lows is steeper on the SPX than on SPY.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
In the charts below, notice that SPX made higher highs on the trendline but SPY made lower highs. Also the slope of the support trendline that connects the lows is steeper on the SPX than on SPY.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Tuesday's ramblings
perparing to sell the qqqq long...not keeping overnight
349
343
stop prob .14 in qqqq
337
still want qqqq 4549 ...4563
334
mayb bull inv HS qqqqq 3min
327
qqqq .32 chart pattern, whatever that means being the HOD is .28
240
qqqq bull crouch tiger if .20 holds...
234
qqqq trying to form bull crouch tiger again like b4...but only 80%...and 80% is not as high as it sounds...suggests chop and poss no tiger
134
qqqq 45.18 stop on 75%...can always buy back...
107
marginal break to .31 first then stall then higher...
106
charts suggest the qqqq wioll make new HOD...
106
another qqqq exit opp... i'll stay long
105
qqqq behaving... 3 cents from HOD here
104
3min mini bull flag qqqqq....in a bear rise wedge...looks like more up in the wedge b4 down...
101
comp 2261 trgt
1251
bull qqqq crouch tiger if qqqq holds .16.....90% confid... not 100% ....could
fail...could chop whipsaw
1237
the 3min qqqq up channel is converting to a bear rising wedge.... but more up before down....
1235
my skf might hit 24,,, no prob...midterm hold...
1234
nervouse qqqq would exit here with a few cents profit/breakeven... i'll stay long awhile
1232
yes. 4 minutes later,,, i have redcued qqqq to 50% exposure.... sold half breakeven
1227
... preparing to sell 50% qqqq at breakeven to reduce risk... avg down accomplished its purpose in lowereing cost
if the qqqq re-test todays high, or make a higher hi tday, then it will setup a nice short opp. on 10min chart
qqqq marginal break over 3min intraday DTL...see if it pivots up...backtest down is ok and expected
last qqqq but at 45.10... 45.19 avg cost
the 3min qqqq now has a positive divergence (not to be confused with a bull diverg...they r diff). suggests a retest of the high and poss break higher
more qqqq 4513. avg cost 4520 qqqq
4493 for now stop will raise ltr
qqqq "should" bounce a little here
1058
often the exhaustion will print a shoot star or one final big green candle....we could see that too... do not have it now
1037
nervous qqqq will exit here near breakeven....i will stay long
1026
if it doesnt breakout in 3-17 minutes in qqqq i will consider selling the longs
looks like qqqq wants to make one more bear diverg on the 3min with a new intraday high over .28 before it declines....watching...
skf is behaving...
momentum trade higher risk... going long qqqq 4527
qqqq could see 4549...i'm not daytrading it now, as the entry setup is not good enough.... will watch for possible long entry... or maybe a short entry will come instead
spy R... 111.67,,, 112.01,,,, 112.14...last 111.65... unsure how high spy will make it... 112.14 not likely today. last 111.67
spx looks like it might make another pop higher b4 the bear diverg full take effect. last 1117.90
qqqq buy cancelled for now
grr missed the fill by one cent...now at 45.22 too high
long qqqq 45.11 if filled
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
349
343
stop prob .14 in qqqq
337
still want qqqq 4549 ...4563
334
mayb bull inv HS qqqqq 3min
327
qqqq .32 chart pattern, whatever that means being the HOD is .28
240
qqqq bull crouch tiger if .20 holds...
234
qqqq trying to form bull crouch tiger again like b4...but only 80%...and 80% is not as high as it sounds...suggests chop and poss no tiger
134
qqqq 45.18 stop on 75%...can always buy back...
107
marginal break to .31 first then stall then higher...
106
charts suggest the qqqq wioll make new HOD...
106
another qqqq exit opp... i'll stay long
105
qqqq behaving... 3 cents from HOD here
104
3min mini bull flag qqqqq....in a bear rise wedge...looks like more up in the wedge b4 down...
101
comp 2261 trgt
1251
bull qqqq crouch tiger if qqqq holds .16.....90% confid... not 100% ....could
fail...could chop whipsaw
1237
the 3min qqqq up channel is converting to a bear rising wedge.... but more up before down....
1235
my skf might hit 24,,, no prob...midterm hold...
1234
nervouse qqqq would exit here with a few cents profit/breakeven... i'll stay long awhile
1232
yes. 4 minutes later,,, i have redcued qqqq to 50% exposure.... sold half breakeven
1227
... preparing to sell 50% qqqq at breakeven to reduce risk... avg down accomplished its purpose in lowereing cost
if the qqqq re-test todays high, or make a higher hi tday, then it will setup a nice short opp. on 10min chart
qqqq marginal break over 3min intraday DTL...see if it pivots up...backtest down is ok and expected
last qqqq but at 45.10... 45.19 avg cost
the 3min qqqq now has a positive divergence (not to be confused with a bull diverg...they r diff). suggests a retest of the high and poss break higher
more qqqq 4513. avg cost 4520 qqqq
4493 for now stop will raise ltr
qqqq "should" bounce a little here
1058
often the exhaustion will print a shoot star or one final big green candle....we could see that too... do not have it now
1037
nervous qqqq will exit here near breakeven....i will stay long
1026
if it doesnt breakout in 3-17 minutes in qqqq i will consider selling the longs
looks like qqqq wants to make one more bear diverg on the 3min with a new intraday high over .28 before it declines....watching...
skf is behaving...
momentum trade higher risk... going long qqqq 4527
qqqq could see 4549...i'm not daytrading it now, as the entry setup is not good enough.... will watch for possible long entry... or maybe a short entry will come instead
spy R... 111.67,,, 112.01,,,, 112.14...last 111.65... unsure how high spy will make it... 112.14 not likely today. last 111.67
spx looks like it might make another pop higher b4 the bear diverg full take effect. last 1117.90
qqqq buy cancelled for now
grr missed the fill by one cent...now at 45.22 too high
long qqqq 45.11 if filled
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
SPY chart - triangle
Daily and hourly charts.
Daily
60 minute - this is from yesterday, prices are up to date, trendlines not redrawn yet.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Daily
60 minute - this is from yesterday, prices are up to date, trendlines not redrawn yet.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Monday, December 21, 2009
Monday ramblings / ES Futures Monday pre-market
yes. spy missed target by one cent... covered some (not all) there at lowest price since the short
yes. spy long: profit.....spy short:profit ..... tna long: loss...skf will hold midterm
YES. spy 111.36 hit and
rejected again...but i ddid not short
more there....canclld order
CANCELLED...was not filled... still have only the last 35% spy short
spy 111.36 should give some R....watching...
have a small piece of spy left...covered some at .15 and stopped at .31
raise some stops to .31 covewr spy
spy "should" make another trip down, at least to .15....will see
stops raised to .37 on all but 25% of spy shorts
well hit .14 twice...so took some off
YES. 111.13 target hit...covered some..holding most for lower...
es 1107 next support....last 1108
spy 111.13 still trgt
spy 133t suggest poss spy 111.13
spy 133t is bearish
usually if they were going to close it higher, spx would be going up here now, then headfake down, then up to close...but going down here... suggests lower
a look at most spx daily candles will show that spx does not usually close at the HOD...
nervous spy shorts would cover here at breakeven.... i'll stay short awhile....
the danger with RUT is that its in a 60min bear rising wedge, getting tight
spy short is behaving still for now
watching the spy short closely... spx might want to make one more higher hi and better define the diverg that i was looking for earlier....
bearish top tails on spy 60min candles
spy 133t chart shows intraday mini dbl top and a clear downtrend since 12:21pm...for now....
bulls want to hold es 1109, bears want to break it lower
shorting spy 111.41 here
spy 3min bear HS forming
as expected ES 1112ish is giving a lot of R.... so took some skf here....XLF also showing R... though it could pop margin higher
the 3min chart
suggests skf good daytrade to
convert to swing poss
long in SKF now at 24.42. this i am willing to hold overnite for weeks....
stopped out of most spy at 111.61
stop spy 111.61 for part of it... will always keep at least 25% at breakeven for higher....
es 1113 stall expected...prior day high i think...
YES. es marginal break of the 1112 at 1112.50
tiger starting to spring....has held the 1110 in es
RUT near HOD now
spy now testing the day close from 12/16
spy 60min close to rsi bull swing... but is right at the R there...could go either way...if rsi gets 65 in 60min would be bullish very
4 cents from stop....will not change it
last .47
spy stop .42 on 50% of pos
ES has bull crouching tigert if it stays over 1110. last 1111
skf likely wants 2421 ...last 2439
charts sugg spx will break the dtl higher....
spx has a minor 3min DTL...testing it now... if test fails i will likely reduce SPY to 25/50%
nervous spy will take profits here now at this .45 bounce...i'll sell another lil bit here...keeping rest for higher
looks like ES n XLF want to break R and form a bear diverg b4 declinging
es 1112 target hit :)... this is where it gets interesting.... is at R now....
buy skf lowered to 24.01 not .17 now
small pos would hold, set stops, exit on 1min weakness
larger spy positions would be taking profits up here at .45
spy 111.97 maybe ??? poss trgt... last 111.45
es hit 1111....the 1110 target hit...
scalpers would take some profits now, save some for higher
i want to be long the spy for free...czu if the R breaks it could surge higher before falling
spy stop raised to 111.23 for a free trade :)
yes. spy new high of day
expecting a headfake over the ES 1110/12 then down. last 1109.50
yes.there goes spy----behaving...
stop 110.97
scalp spy long 111.19 here. looking for another pop up
spy right at gap R...filled gap mostly...lasst 111.24
3min ES bull flag suggests one more pop up. es 1108 last
942
es very close to my 1110 target... should get R around there
940
below the market, i will buy SKF at 24.17 buy. last 24.47
918
1110 ES has DTL reistance daily. Impt ES levels: 1103, 1106.50, 1112, 1113, 1119. The 1110/1111 level would be harder to hurdle since there is prior high R there in addition to DTL resist.
904
chart target in RUT is 622 if 6162 hurdled sustained
821
ES has a pattern that could see 1016 next, if the support holds and it hurdles the res on way up. but bear divergences could develop and halt the ascent. last es 1103.
1104 is a prior R level that it just tested...it would need to hurdle that
815AM
xlf at 14.30, marginally over the 14.27 R.... see what happens there. 14.40 then 14.48 would be next targets. but they need to sustain over the 14.27 and hold over it.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
yes. spy long: profit.....spy short:profit ..... tna long: loss...skf will hold midterm
YES. spy 111.36 hit and
rejected again...but i ddid not short
more there....canclld order
CANCELLED...was not filled... still have only the last 35% spy short
spy 111.36 should give some R....watching...
have a small piece of spy left...covered some at .15 and stopped at .31
raise some stops to .31 covewr spy
spy "should" make another trip down, at least to .15....will see
stops raised to .37 on all but 25% of spy shorts
well hit .14 twice...so took some off
YES. 111.13 target hit...covered some..holding most for lower...
es 1107 next support....last 1108
spy 111.13 still trgt
spy 133t suggest poss spy 111.13
spy 133t is bearish
usually if they were going to close it higher, spx would be going up here now, then headfake down, then up to close...but going down here... suggests lower
a look at most spx daily candles will show that spx does not usually close at the HOD...
nervous spy shorts would cover here at breakeven.... i'll stay short awhile....
the danger with RUT is that its in a 60min bear rising wedge, getting tight
spy short is behaving still for now
watching the spy short closely... spx might want to make one more higher hi and better define the diverg that i was looking for earlier....
bearish top tails on spy 60min candles
spy 133t chart shows intraday mini dbl top and a clear downtrend since 12:21pm...for now....
bulls want to hold es 1109, bears want to break it lower
shorting spy 111.41 here
spy 3min bear HS forming
as expected ES 1112ish is giving a lot of R.... so took some skf here....XLF also showing R... though it could pop margin higher
the 3min chart
suggests skf good daytrade to
convert to swing poss
long in SKF now at 24.42. this i am willing to hold overnite for weeks....
stopped out of most spy at 111.61
stop spy 111.61 for part of it... will always keep at least 25% at breakeven for higher....
es 1113 stall expected...prior day high i think...
YES. es marginal break of the 1112 at 1112.50
tiger starting to spring....has held the 1110 in es
RUT near HOD now
spy now testing the day close from 12/16
spy 60min close to rsi bull swing... but is right at the R there...could go either way...if rsi gets 65 in 60min would be bullish very
4 cents from stop....will not change it
last .47
spy stop .42 on 50% of pos
ES has bull crouching tigert if it stays over 1110. last 1111
skf likely wants 2421 ...last 2439
charts sugg spx will break the dtl higher....
spx has a minor 3min DTL...testing it now... if test fails i will likely reduce SPY to 25/50%
nervous spy will take profits here now at this .45 bounce...i'll sell another lil bit here...keeping rest for higher
looks like ES n XLF want to break R and form a bear diverg b4 declinging
es 1112 target hit :)... this is where it gets interesting.... is at R now....
buy skf lowered to 24.01 not .17 now
small pos would hold, set stops, exit on 1min weakness
larger spy positions would be taking profits up here at .45
spy 111.97 maybe ??? poss trgt... last 111.45
es hit 1111....the 1110 target hit...
scalpers would take some profits now, save some for higher
i want to be long the spy for free...czu if the R breaks it could surge higher before falling
spy stop raised to 111.23 for a free trade :)
yes. spy new high of day
expecting a headfake over the ES 1110/12 then down. last 1109.50
yes.there goes spy----behaving...
stop 110.97
scalp spy long 111.19 here. looking for another pop up
spy right at gap R...filled gap mostly...lasst 111.24
3min ES bull flag suggests one more pop up. es 1108 last
942
es very close to my 1110 target... should get R around there
940
below the market, i will buy SKF at 24.17 buy. last 24.47
918
1110 ES has DTL reistance daily. Impt ES levels: 1103, 1106.50, 1112, 1113, 1119. The 1110/1111 level would be harder to hurdle since there is prior high R there in addition to DTL resist.
904
chart target in RUT is 622 if 6162 hurdled sustained
821
ES has a pattern that could see 1016 next, if the support holds and it hurdles the res on way up. but bear divergences could develop and halt the ascent. last es 1103.
1104 is a prior R level that it just tested...it would need to hurdle that
815AM
xlf at 14.30, marginally over the 14.27 R.... see what happens there. 14.40 then 14.48 would be next targets. but they need to sustain over the 14.27 and hold over it.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Sunday, December 20, 2009
Monday day: TNA long, SKF short
This is unconfirmed, requires more analysis, but initial analysis suggests the following, to me:
Often I like to change the vehicles that I use for trading. For Monday, I will probably use the TNA for long daytrades, and SKF (which is shorting the financials) for short trades. Also will continue to use SPY QQQ DIA also, but the TNA / SKF seems like it might be a better path.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Often I like to change the vehicles that I use for trading. For Monday, I will probably use the TNA for long daytrades, and SKF (which is shorting the financials) for short trades. Also will continue to use SPY QQQ DIA also, but the TNA / SKF seems like it might be a better path.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Saturday, December 19, 2009
DOW traded in 1,000 point range for 2 years in 2004/05 ... might it again? Or turn LOWER?
9:47 PM
The last time the DOW hit 10,754, it stayed in the ~1,000 point range between 10,754 and 9708 for 10 months from Jan to Oct 2004, and in an even narrower range rectangle between 10,754 and 10,075 from Nov 2004 to Dec 2005 (with an exception at a false breakout to 11,176). So the DOW was in a range from Jan 2004 to Dec 2005, or about 2 years. This was also following a decline and rise in 2002 similar to the one from Oct. 2008. Of course, one could also argue that such a rectangle range would happen if the DOW got back to 14,198 (it's previous high) since the 2004 range happened when the DOW reached it's prior high around 10,754.
However, if the 10,754 holds as resistance, I would expect further declines, since the downtrend line will maintain its authority (there was no DTL in 2004.
Thus, I would expect a turn down, if the DOW should happen to get to 10,754.
9:22 PM... update... note that this resistance goes all the way back to 2001 on the monthly chart.
9:111 PM
DOW has weekly resistance at 10,754, as measured from the October 2007 high of 14,198.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
The last time the DOW hit 10,754, it stayed in the ~1,000 point range between 10,754 and 9708 for 10 months from Jan to Oct 2004, and in an even narrower range rectangle between 10,754 and 10,075 from Nov 2004 to Dec 2005 (with an exception at a false breakout to 11,176). So the DOW was in a range from Jan 2004 to Dec 2005, or about 2 years. This was also following a decline and rise in 2002 similar to the one from Oct. 2008. Of course, one could also argue that such a rectangle range would happen if the DOW got back to 14,198 (it's previous high) since the 2004 range happened when the DOW reached it's prior high around 10,754.
However, if the 10,754 holds as resistance, I would expect further declines, since the downtrend line will maintain its authority (there was no DTL in 2004.
Thus, I would expect a turn down, if the DOW should happen to get to 10,754.
9:22 PM... update... note that this resistance goes all the way back to 2001 on the monthly chart.
9:111 PM
DOW has weekly resistance at 10,754, as measured from the October 2007 high of 14,198.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
SPX up or down next? Still in limbo
The SPX remains in a rectangle formation. There is also a coil within the rectangle. Current hourly and daily momentum is down, so bias is down until this is broken. But the 60 min chart does suggest a bounce up. I'll just continue to wait until the rectangle resolves up or down. Right now, bias is downward, but we are still in a range. Looking to see if the next few days makes a lower high (I think it will).
Also, the charts suggest that SPX could chop around within the rectangle until January 2, 2010. A break up or down of the coil or rectangle is likely to produce a backtest in the opposite direction.
Below are 2 charts, daily and 60 minute. I've used SPY instead of SPX for the charts.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Also, the charts suggest that SPX could chop around within the rectangle until January 2, 2010. A break up or down of the coil or rectangle is likely to produce a backtest in the opposite direction.
Below are 2 charts, daily and 60 minute. I've used SPY instead of SPX for the charts.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Friday, December 18, 2009
friday ramblings (and Thurs eve / Friday pre-market ES Futures)
skf daily...need to look closer... a quick glance... looks like the daily coil broke to upside, and this is just backtest, to be followed by more up
SPY hit the 110.13 target, and almost hit the 110.34 target...made 110.28
i do not like long or short overnight. the directions of the 3 15 60 and daily charts are all convoluted with lots of crosscurrents. i will wait for monday.
one winning trade,
one losing. profits far exceeded loss
though.
(the sds was also hedged with that 25% remaining piece of spy long)
-------------
stopped out of sds for small loss
moving stops on 75% of sds to 36.11....want to keep my profits from earlier....
sds 3642 trgt
sds crouching tiger here bullish if sds stays over 3610 (bear spx)
sds stop 3594--not risking much
2:38
hmm...ok sds looks good for a try... in at 36.13
stopped out all spy except 25% at .82....took profits...still looks like another poss pop up...will see
stop .82
charts support possibility of gap fill (not today).... all depends on whether the 60min stays bearish....charts suggest that a gap fill upward could happen
unbelievable...still in by one cent from stoppout
smaller positions can just keep the .83 stop...or sell here at .93...i'd keep the .83 for now
missed the .83 stop by one cent...still in spy...will not lower...can alwyas buy back...will take profigs on all but 25% to hold at breakeven
look at 12/8 adn 12/9 spy daily candles...and how prices moved higher after. then look at today and yest candles.... this pattern can be seen in november too.... my bias is still down for 60min, but need to give this bull scenario a good chance. bulls could break the 60min downtrend.
ook the 3min spy is coiling now...need to watch for possible breakdown (could break up or down)
bear diverg are forming in spy...but i'll ride it as high as we can////
poss bull asc triangle spy 10min. triangle measures to spy 110.29,,, close to the .35 target (adding .35)
spy long on a 3x etf..up 1.47% now in 2 hours
spy targets 110.20, .26, .45 .54
now the spy should
pop higher, set up bear diverg 3min,
and fall...holding long still
stop moved up to .73 spy on all but 25%
stops raised to .83 on all except 25% ...nice profit guar.... :)
taking some spy profits here at .90....saving rest for higher
spy mental stop .74...may sell at mkt if it gets there and starts looking flaky./... holding most for now
spy 133t shows a range in spy with danger of dbl top bear...could go either way
crouching tiger sprung...but might not be finished...looks like more up...
es 1094 and 1096 are same impt numbers from yest...today...now es 1093.5 testing 1094
the big one is a hurdle of .84 that could propel to 110.13
spy trgt 109.61, .67, .78, .84 then 110.13 to start with a stall at each
spy stop .63 now
spy .85 should trigger a nice pop higher if it can hurdle sustain
spy .82 will prob cause a lil move lower if it gets there...prob stall...
spy stop 109.57
also waiting for the skf to enter my buy zone that i mentioned pre-market...for swing..not there yet
spy second target hit :)spy second target hit :)
the spy stall here is ok...we expected thisa
spy stop raised to breakefen for a free trade
1215
spy first target hit :)
charts say higher spy still
1212
spy trgt 109.61, .67, .78 to start with a stall at each
1211
trying a scalp spy long 109.47
9:27
dx (us dollar) charts are bullish but suggest some chop and pullbakc to 77.97/.85 area. followed by test of 78.28 and break higher with 78.81 target
9:22AM
I'm out for this morning, might trade this afternoon, or might take the whole day off.
Friday 9:21 AM
See charts in post below, which are now somewhat out-dated (a few hours out of date)
On 60 min, ES marginally broke a triangle coil lower, but a backtest or even re-entry into the triangle is possible. need to watch this ES today to see if it wants to do a trend reversal down, or start to pivot back up. looking to see higher highs/lows or lower highs/lows. 60 min bias still down until broken.
the 15min ES shows a possible bear HeadShoulders pattern developing if ES stays under 1100... also, see if the ES can hurdle over 1103 or if that is the high. if 1103 is the high then we have 1. trendline break, 2 lower high, and would lookd for 3. lower low to confirm a trend reversal. the es 1090 needs to be broken lower, and then the more important, stronger es 1085 needs to break lower. so, there is some work to do, either way. still in the rectangle range until a break higher or lower.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
SPY hit the 110.13 target, and almost hit the 110.34 target...made 110.28
i do not like long or short overnight. the directions of the 3 15 60 and daily charts are all convoluted with lots of crosscurrents. i will wait for monday.
one winning trade,
one losing. profits far exceeded loss
though.
(the sds was also hedged with that 25% remaining piece of spy long)
-------------
stopped out of sds for small loss
moving stops on 75% of sds to 36.11....want to keep my profits from earlier....
sds 3642 trgt
sds crouching tiger here bullish if sds stays over 3610 (bear spx)
sds stop 3594--not risking much
2:38
hmm...ok sds looks good for a try... in at 36.13
stopped out all spy except 25% at .82....took profits...still looks like another poss pop up...will see
stop .82
charts support possibility of gap fill (not today).... all depends on whether the 60min stays bearish....charts suggest that a gap fill upward could happen
unbelievable...still in by one cent from stoppout
smaller positions can just keep the .83 stop...or sell here at .93...i'd keep the .83 for now
missed the .83 stop by one cent...still in spy...will not lower...can alwyas buy back...will take profigs on all but 25% to hold at breakeven
look at 12/8 adn 12/9 spy daily candles...and how prices moved higher after. then look at today and yest candles.... this pattern can be seen in november too.... my bias is still down for 60min, but need to give this bull scenario a good chance. bulls could break the 60min downtrend.
ook the 3min spy is coiling now...need to watch for possible breakdown (could break up or down)
bear diverg are forming in spy...but i'll ride it as high as we can////
poss bull asc triangle spy 10min. triangle measures to spy 110.29,,, close to the .35 target (adding .35)
spy long on a 3x etf..up 1.47% now in 2 hours
spy targets 110.20, .26, .45 .54
now the spy should
pop higher, set up bear diverg 3min,
and fall...holding long still
stop moved up to .73 spy on all but 25%
stops raised to .83 on all except 25% ...nice profit guar.... :)
taking some spy profits here at .90....saving rest for higher
spy mental stop .74...may sell at mkt if it gets there and starts looking flaky./... holding most for now
spy 133t shows a range in spy with danger of dbl top bear...could go either way
crouching tiger sprung...but might not be finished...looks like more up...
es 1094 and 1096 are same impt numbers from yest...today...now es 1093.5 testing 1094
the big one is a hurdle of .84 that could propel to 110.13
spy trgt 109.61, .67, .78, .84 then 110.13 to start with a stall at each
spy stop .63 now
spy .85 should trigger a nice pop higher if it can hurdle sustain
spy .82 will prob cause a lil move lower if it gets there...prob stall...
spy stop 109.57
also waiting for the skf to enter my buy zone that i mentioned pre-market...for swing..not there yet
spy second target hit :)spy second target hit :)
the spy stall here is ok...we expected thisa
spy stop raised to breakefen for a free trade
1215
spy first target hit :)
charts say higher spy still
1212
spy trgt 109.61, .67, .78 to start with a stall at each
1211
trying a scalp spy long 109.47
9:27
dx (us dollar) charts are bullish but suggest some chop and pullbakc to 77.97/.85 area. followed by test of 78.28 and break higher with 78.81 target
9:22AM
I'm out for this morning, might trade this afternoon, or might take the whole day off.
Friday 9:21 AM
See charts in post below, which are now somewhat out-dated (a few hours out of date)
On 60 min, ES marginally broke a triangle coil lower, but a backtest or even re-entry into the triangle is possible. need to watch this ES today to see if it wants to do a trend reversal down, or start to pivot back up. looking to see higher highs/lows or lower highs/lows. 60 min bias still down until broken.
the 15min ES shows a possible bear HeadShoulders pattern developing if ES stays under 1100... also, see if the ES can hurdle over 1103 or if that is the high. if 1103 is the high then we have 1. trendline break, 2 lower high, and would lookd for 3. lower low to confirm a trend reversal. the es 1090 needs to be broken lower, and then the more important, stronger es 1085 needs to break lower. so, there is some work to do, either way. still in the rectangle range until a break higher or lower.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
ES charts
Comments will be added later maybe.
Daily Chart ES
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Daily Chart ES
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Now what?
wow once again these charts are confounding, showing both bullish and bearish signals. they seem to indicate a bounce followed by another decline, BUT there are also indications that the bounce could get followthrough all the way up to spx 1117 in the coming days. so myself, i'll take this as it comes. Today was either the start of a move down to 1085 and maybe lower, or it could be viewed as a test of an spx uptrend support line that held (suggesting up to 1117 or higher). in addition to other factors, the daily Moneyflow, daily adx/r, and 60min adx/r are interesting. perhaps will add more details and do more analysis later.
Nevertheless, the bear control the 60 minute charts, until the bulls force it by pushing it up (if they do). So, my bias is bearish for short term, for now.
a harami candle
pattern (among other indicators)
would just be more confusion that
needs to be settled next week lol
But we also must look at
12/8 and 12/9 candles daily...we could
get that...a hammer or harami
also 11/19 and
11/20....11/27 n 11/28 candles in spy. these candles show "failed" trend reversal attempts.
spx "should" reverse down but its too early to tell.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Nevertheless, the bear control the 60 minute charts, until the bulls force it by pushing it up (if they do). So, my bias is bearish for short term, for now.
a harami candle
pattern (among other indicators)
would just be more confusion that
needs to be settled next week lol
But we also must look at
12/8 and 12/9 candles daily...we could
get that...a hammer or harami
also 11/19 and
11/20....11/27 n 11/28 candles in spy. these candles show "failed" trend reversal attempts.
spx "should" reverse down but its too early to tell.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
The move downward came today as expected
More details later here....
As I wrote last night in the post below, I expected a move down in spx.
The move downward came today as expected. Many were expecting up up up without this, the charts suggested otherwise for the last 2 days. Profited from this via the swing shorts. Currently closed most shorts today at profit in order to lock in gains, also because I might be taking vacation day tomorrow. Can always re-enter.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
As I wrote last night in the post below, I expected a move down in spx.
The move downward came today as expected. Many were expecting up up up without this, the charts suggested otherwise for the last 2 days. Profited from this via the swing shorts. Currently closed most shorts today at profit in order to lock in gains, also because I might be taking vacation day tomorrow. Can always re-enter.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
thurs ramblings (and Wednesday eve / Thurs morning pre-market ES )
357
had one losing daytrade today, 3 winning daytrades, closed the skf swing at profit, took loss on srs swing.... overall green
337
spy "should" turn back down...will see
334
small positionl...shorted spy 110.36
314
skf trying breakout higher....xlf lower
312
xlf is falling...could ruin my spy scalp long
311
charts suggest spy 110.72 / 76 to me at least...will see
308
there was a good chance of spx 1093 today but bears didnt push it there....lesat not yet...not likely now
306
spy .62 and .73 targets with stall at each
------------
spy stop 110.28....not risking much
poss 3min spy bear HS forming...watching the long daytrade in spy...
50% crouching tiger bullish spy..entered early based on other signals...
i've been using SPY not sso or sds or spxu...just buy 2-3 times as much to mimic the 2x 3x etf
TRADE: trying a spy scalp long 110.39
---
i'm too tired mentally
to trade for now...going on break for
30mins or maybe rest of day...taking
tomorrow off....
----------
took profits in skf spy
out of skf for now (still have faz)....out of all spy except 25%....
oops my srs got stopped out...no prob...actually took lil loss on that swing...will look for better entry next week
.39 stop spy
ah...now spy is behaving...good..bakcing off the .30
changing srs to 7.98 stop...give lil room
surprisingly still in skf and srs...stops not hit
must protect profits so stops set
skf stop 2541. can always buy back
srs stop 8.01 i can always buy back
1253
dow 10,230ish would be very bearish...forget exact #...not today necessarily....but thats impt area
1250
covering some spy here....stop .37 on all but 25%
1247
uh oh....... spy macd 15min hist turning back DOWN...danger....
es 5 points from 1087 trgt...last 1092
109.87 spy trgt....
i see 1093 spx not
1095....
1239
1087 ES is very possible....if sustains under the 1093....will see. this break is marginal so far...doesnt count yet...watching///
1238
yes. ok so we got the retest of LOD spy not the inv HS ...as expected...
1226
there is a small 3min bulll diverg that suggests spy .35 will hold and not retest .30...but its close
1218
poss spy bull inv HS on 133t and 1min charts...is valid unless LOD tested...alt scenario
1216
charts suggest another push down here, then maybe up...down might be only to LOD..for scalpers...spx last 1099
1210
maybe not
all today to 1085ish...but charts do
say that unless bulls step in...we r
going there, even lower...not all
today of course. but, they could
1203
target:srs charts suggest 8.23 which is close to 8.19 prev signif high, on breakout over 8.02....last 7.93
1159
spy emergency stop set at 110.60.... to lock profit/breakeven
1151
bulls need to step in .... charts suggest 1085ish if they dont....actually suggest a BREAK under 1085 (not all today)...charts say selling is just beginning....unless the bulls step up. spx last 1099. now...they could step in and stop this...but unless they do, chart suggest it, to me. right now, charts suggest that they will not be able to hold it up....
1148
yes. spy hit 110.41 ...one penny from 110.40 target,,,and bounced stalled a lil...expected, no prob. still see lower
1147
charts suggest spx 1096....below LOD
1144
skf chart patterns suggest up to 25.60....which matches prev sig hi at 2561
1142
skf looks ready to breakout higher today
1141
ES needs to make a LOWER LO,,,,then a bull diverg will setup for a nice big scalp on the pop bak up
1138
ES is trying to form a
coil in 15min...well there is one...but
looks like will break to downside
pre-maturely b4 the apex
1135
es stall at 1096 here...held...should break lower....
1134
1096 94 87 85 trgts ES. stall at each one target
1132
spy headed for that .40ish trgt....dont have exact #....its behaving...broke the .60ish
1130
lol ..in time it took me to type that...i'm out of spy longs now...can always buy...sold at 2nd failed attempt around .80
1127
btw, most brokers, if you are SHORT and LONG the same stock at the same time (as i am with SPY) you need to use 2 different accounts, or likely you won't be able to close the short without first selling the long... u could get stuck...learned that the hard way some years back.... or... just use SDS instead of short spy and that avoids that prob.
--------------
spy 110.60 should give 110.40ish
shorted spy at 110.67..paying premium
looking for a spy short entry next....the .93 limit short is too high...never got a fill/....
grrr .72 stop hit...bounced rite after...meh...still have 25%....took profits on 75%
spy stop .72
spy 110.9 stall poss
1059
spy stop .73
1057
skf stop .02
1056
skf stop .08
1055
srs is being disobedient...charts say it should be going up...it stubbornly going down... stops raised to 7.60 srs for now...maybe sell earlier
1052
spy stop .57 now....holds there or im out
1050
setting skf stop at 25.11 for some of it..can always buy back...dont wanna stick around for gap fill
1042
poss bear 3min HS in skf...watching that one too
1040
skf looks like bull flag that trying to breakout...expect up then down...is normal on bullflags to re-test lower
1033
spy stop at .42 .... dont want to risk much on this flakiness
1030
spy moving up.... skf holding...hmmm
1026
but charts suggest more up in spy/.... 110.74 should stall if it gets there....last 110.55
1025
es at 1096...scalpers will take profits on some spy here
1024
spy scalp is behaving so far...
1020
90% spy crouch tiger bull for scalp ...but its countertrend so limited upside. if spy holds over .45 will prob get a 99-100% crouch tiger
1007
.45 ... .61 next skf
trgt/.... stall at .45 expected
954
skf back at 2533...testing that impt R again
952
TRADE: ABOVE the mkt... short SPY 111.93...last 111.70. not filled yet of course.
945
srs is at 7.90...rite at support...looking for it to hold near here...
944
considering spy short if ES gets 1100. charts suggest small pop in es 3min. es last 1099
926
ES bull diverg 15min and other things suggest ES pop up from 1097 but prob won't make over 1100, or at least stall at 1100 to decide up or down. but with volume at 9:30 its possible it could pop higher
825
for 3 days i've been suggesting a possible SPY eve star bear reversal... might get it today, tomorrow or Monday/ tues. could easily happn today.
810
if skf tries a 3rd time to hurdle 2531 and fails, i might sell the skf for profit and re-enter at lower.... looking for it to break above and hold over 2531ish
759
might not see a vix volatility change until 1085ish broken lower....
755
SKF at 25.25 pre-market. R is at 25.31 and 25.42, 25.60, 26.19. A hurdle over 25.33 today for SKF would be good
10000
TRADE: 600 spy long 110.40
ES 1094 is support, some mini bull diverg in spy on 1 2 3 min setting up, so scalping the spy
7:50
WOW ES just dropped down again to 1096. ES supports now 1094, 1087, 1085. R still 1104 (and lower R levels too of course).
7:44
ES 1104 R is key today, and 1096 S. Be interesting to see if 1096 is tested again during market hours. ES has a habit of occassionally making overnight highs or lows, but then not testing them during 930--400 mkt hours.
7:31 AM Thurs
ES declined overnight to 1096. the 1096 support held (ES tested prior signif low at 1096, which held). The 1103 and 1100 ES were broken overnight, which were yesterdays support levels. Now will observe to see if 1100/1105 are converted to resistance, or if ES can hurdle those.
Last night, in the "Whats going on with spx post", I mentioned that I saw more downside movement before any move up. This roadmap is playing out. Still do not know which way this rectangle will break, but the lower test of support first has occurred.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
had one losing daytrade today, 3 winning daytrades, closed the skf swing at profit, took loss on srs swing.... overall green
337
spy "should" turn back down...will see
334
small positionl...shorted spy 110.36
314
skf trying breakout higher....xlf lower
312
xlf is falling...could ruin my spy scalp long
311
charts suggest spy 110.72 / 76 to me at least...will see
308
there was a good chance of spx 1093 today but bears didnt push it there....lesat not yet...not likely now
306
spy .62 and .73 targets with stall at each
------------
spy stop 110.28....not risking much
poss 3min spy bear HS forming...watching the long daytrade in spy...
50% crouching tiger bullish spy..entered early based on other signals...
i've been using SPY not sso or sds or spxu...just buy 2-3 times as much to mimic the 2x 3x etf
TRADE: trying a spy scalp long 110.39
---
i'm too tired mentally
to trade for now...going on break for
30mins or maybe rest of day...taking
tomorrow off....
----------
took profits in skf spy
out of skf for now (still have faz)....out of all spy except 25%....
oops my srs got stopped out...no prob...actually took lil loss on that swing...will look for better entry next week
.39 stop spy
ah...now spy is behaving...good..bakcing off the .30
changing srs to 7.98 stop...give lil room
surprisingly still in skf and srs...stops not hit
must protect profits so stops set
skf stop 2541. can always buy back
srs stop 8.01 i can always buy back
1253
dow 10,230ish would be very bearish...forget exact #...not today necessarily....but thats impt area
1250
covering some spy here....stop .37 on all but 25%
1247
uh oh....... spy macd 15min hist turning back DOWN...danger....
es 5 points from 1087 trgt...last 1092
109.87 spy trgt....
i see 1093 spx not
1095....
1239
1087 ES is very possible....if sustains under the 1093....will see. this break is marginal so far...doesnt count yet...watching///
1238
yes. ok so we got the retest of LOD spy not the inv HS ...as expected...
1226
there is a small 3min bulll diverg that suggests spy .35 will hold and not retest .30...but its close
1218
poss spy bull inv HS on 133t and 1min charts...is valid unless LOD tested...alt scenario
1216
charts suggest another push down here, then maybe up...down might be only to LOD..for scalpers...spx last 1099
1210
maybe not
all today to 1085ish...but charts do
say that unless bulls step in...we r
going there, even lower...not all
today of course. but, they could
1203
target:srs charts suggest 8.23 which is close to 8.19 prev signif high, on breakout over 8.02....last 7.93
1159
spy emergency stop set at 110.60.... to lock profit/breakeven
1151
bulls need to step in .... charts suggest 1085ish if they dont....actually suggest a BREAK under 1085 (not all today)...charts say selling is just beginning....unless the bulls step up. spx last 1099. now...they could step in and stop this...but unless they do, chart suggest it, to me. right now, charts suggest that they will not be able to hold it up....
1148
yes. spy hit 110.41 ...one penny from 110.40 target,,,and bounced stalled a lil...expected, no prob. still see lower
1147
charts suggest spx 1096....below LOD
1144
skf chart patterns suggest up to 25.60....which matches prev sig hi at 2561
1142
skf looks ready to breakout higher today
1141
ES needs to make a LOWER LO,,,,then a bull diverg will setup for a nice big scalp on the pop bak up
1138
ES is trying to form a
coil in 15min...well there is one...but
looks like will break to downside
pre-maturely b4 the apex
1135
es stall at 1096 here...held...should break lower....
1134
1096 94 87 85 trgts ES. stall at each one target
1132
spy headed for that .40ish trgt....dont have exact #....its behaving...broke the .60ish
1130
lol ..in time it took me to type that...i'm out of spy longs now...can always buy...sold at 2nd failed attempt around .80
1127
btw, most brokers, if you are SHORT and LONG the same stock at the same time (as i am with SPY) you need to use 2 different accounts, or likely you won't be able to close the short without first selling the long... u could get stuck...learned that the hard way some years back.... or... just use SDS instead of short spy and that avoids that prob.
--------------
spy 110.60 should give 110.40ish
shorted spy at 110.67..paying premium
looking for a spy short entry next....the .93 limit short is too high...never got a fill/....
grrr .72 stop hit...bounced rite after...meh...still have 25%....took profits on 75%
spy stop .72
spy 110.9 stall poss
1059
spy stop .73
1057
skf stop .02
1056
skf stop .08
1055
srs is being disobedient...charts say it should be going up...it stubbornly going down... stops raised to 7.60 srs for now...maybe sell earlier
1052
spy stop .57 now....holds there or im out
1050
setting skf stop at 25.11 for some of it..can always buy back...dont wanna stick around for gap fill
1042
poss bear 3min HS in skf...watching that one too
1040
skf looks like bull flag that trying to breakout...expect up then down...is normal on bullflags to re-test lower
1033
spy stop at .42 .... dont want to risk much on this flakiness
1030
spy moving up.... skf holding...hmmm
1026
but charts suggest more up in spy/.... 110.74 should stall if it gets there....last 110.55
1025
es at 1096...scalpers will take profits on some spy here
1024
spy scalp is behaving so far...
1020
90% spy crouch tiger bull for scalp ...but its countertrend so limited upside. if spy holds over .45 will prob get a 99-100% crouch tiger
1007
.45 ... .61 next skf
trgt/.... stall at .45 expected
954
skf back at 2533...testing that impt R again
952
TRADE: ABOVE the mkt... short SPY 111.93...last 111.70. not filled yet of course.
945
srs is at 7.90...rite at support...looking for it to hold near here...
944
considering spy short if ES gets 1100. charts suggest small pop in es 3min. es last 1099
926
ES bull diverg 15min and other things suggest ES pop up from 1097 but prob won't make over 1100, or at least stall at 1100 to decide up or down. but with volume at 9:30 its possible it could pop higher
825
for 3 days i've been suggesting a possible SPY eve star bear reversal... might get it today, tomorrow or Monday/ tues. could easily happn today.
810
if skf tries a 3rd time to hurdle 2531 and fails, i might sell the skf for profit and re-enter at lower.... looking for it to break above and hold over 2531ish
759
might not see a vix volatility change until 1085ish broken lower....
755
SKF at 25.25 pre-market. R is at 25.31 and 25.42, 25.60, 26.19. A hurdle over 25.33 today for SKF would be good
10000
TRADE: 600 spy long 110.40
ES 1094 is support, some mini bull diverg in spy on 1 2 3 min setting up, so scalping the spy
7:50
WOW ES just dropped down again to 1096. ES supports now 1094, 1087, 1085. R still 1104 (and lower R levels too of course).
7:44
ES 1104 R is key today, and 1096 S. Be interesting to see if 1096 is tested again during market hours. ES has a habit of occassionally making overnight highs or lows, but then not testing them during 930--400 mkt hours.
7:31 AM Thurs
ES declined overnight to 1096. the 1096 support held (ES tested prior signif low at 1096, which held). The 1103 and 1100 ES were broken overnight, which were yesterdays support levels. Now will observe to see if 1100/1105 are converted to resistance, or if ES can hurdle those.
Last night, in the "Whats going on with spx post", I mentioned that I saw more downside movement before any move up. This roadmap is playing out. Still do not know which way this rectangle will break, but the lower test of support first has occurred.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
whats going on with spx?
here's what i see... comments and differing views welcomed... i will try to add more here later....
Using the 60 min chart: SPY spx is in a rectangle range, but within the rectangle there are bearish wedges, down channels, and up channels. mixed. which is actually not surprising since its in a rectangle range.
to me, though, the RSI and Stoch (and some additional other factors) suggest at least some lower levels before any surge up (if we get one), is how i see it...
i know many are expecting the SPX to surge higher... maybe it will, but i'm not so convinced, at least not yet. awaiting the resolution of the rectangle to see which way this breaks...
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Using the 60 min chart: SPY spx is in a rectangle range, but within the rectangle there are bearish wedges, down channels, and up channels. mixed. which is actually not surprising since its in a rectangle range.
to me, though, the RSI and Stoch (and some additional other factors) suggest at least some lower levels before any surge up (if we get one), is how i see it...
i know many are expecting the SPX to surge higher... maybe it will, but i'm not so convinced, at least not yet. awaiting the resolution of the rectangle to see which way this breaks...
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
thurs ramblings (and Wednesday eve / Thurs morning pre-market ES )
337
COVERED SPY at the market.... at .43... only one trade today, the SPY SHORT... covered for a profit.
335
spy daily gravestone doji so far
329
emergency spike stop on spy set at 111.52
328
if 1100 es breaks, that would be fireworks...expect it to hold
327
spy hit .33.....2 cents under the .35 target :)
303
xlf in danger of a breakdown....
300
es trgt 1105 hit...could bounce
258
ES 1105, 1103, 1100 trgts
235
3min spy is coiling now with down bias
234
ris: the SPY downtrend
rsi trendline gave a perfect touch
during all that whipsaw from FOMC
2:15... the DTL held as R
232
poss bull inv HS in SPY 60min
229
spx 1114 is key...see if converted 1114 to R...last 1113
224
first spy trgt 111.63 hit
209
spy trgts 111.63,,,, 111.35,,,, 111.00,,,maybe lower
207
conservative traders would cover shorts here in spy
205
IF we get a nice SPY plunge quickly,,,,i will cover at the market my spy short daytrade
157
looks like it will test LOD in spy
155
yes. spy spx roadmap being followed as expected, so far....
129
rsi trendline down...testing..holding R thus far in spx
119
70% bull crouching tiger in spx... not enough to go long, in fact suggsts at least some more down b4 up...last spy 111.93. tiger might not make 98% confidence...watching...
117
but poss BULL flag spx 60min
110
rsi spy downtrendline RSI holding as R
109
its dangerous for bulls if it is near the low of day at 2:15.... a downspike would break the low and trigger stops
1227
this pattern in spx usually does a down up down lower move.... could pop back up, then down. something like spx 1114, 1112, 1115, 1110
1225
nervous spy shorts would cover here near breakeven...i am staying short, for now
1224
spy broke the 10min bear wedge lower...and has not backtested it...just going down
1217
spy 133t is forming bear Head SHoulders pattern that suggests re-test of LOD or about 112.75. last spy 111.99 if neckline broken
1154
the spy 112.08 prev HOD pierced higher to 112.13....but this did not trigger upside accelleration...rather attracted a few sellers.... bearish unless the bulls mount another attack and pierce higher. watching to see if they do
1144
spy bear diverg price:macd hist. rising prices, falling hist, suggests eventual pullback lower. spx last 1116
1132
spy poss 10min bear rising wedge could actually be breaking lower here,,,despite SPY upmove... could see higher prices as it backtests the wedge, followed by lower spx spy. could go either way.
1104
spy spx is approaching oversold with little upward price movement, suggesting underlying weakness at least initially
1048
SPY forming a bear desc triangle in 10min chart, suggesting chop trade until 1:17 with a slight down bias. Of course, the FOMC 2:15 could stall things past 1:17 PM.
1023
this chart pattern will usually attract sellers....in spx. last 1113
1018
charts suggest that SPY will break the LOD... lower daily low expected
1016
poss 3min bear M in ES 3min for scalpers
1015
yes. spy shorts are behaving...
1002
the srs and skf are down this morn, but i still like these as midterm holding positions....
959
1min bear diverg spy-= for scalpers...
9:40
TRADE: short 500 shares SPY 111.82
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
COVERED SPY at the market.... at .43... only one trade today, the SPY SHORT... covered for a profit.
335
spy daily gravestone doji so far
329
emergency spike stop on spy set at 111.52
328
if 1100 es breaks, that would be fireworks...expect it to hold
327
spy hit .33.....2 cents under the .35 target :)
303
xlf in danger of a breakdown....
300
es trgt 1105 hit...could bounce
258
ES 1105, 1103, 1100 trgts
235
3min spy is coiling now with down bias
234
ris: the SPY downtrend
rsi trendline gave a perfect touch
during all that whipsaw from FOMC
2:15... the DTL held as R
232
poss bull inv HS in SPY 60min
229
spx 1114 is key...see if converted 1114 to R...last 1113
224
first spy trgt 111.63 hit
209
spy trgts 111.63,,,, 111.35,,,, 111.00,,,maybe lower
207
conservative traders would cover shorts here in spy
205
IF we get a nice SPY plunge quickly,,,,i will cover at the market my spy short daytrade
157
looks like it will test LOD in spy
155
yes. spy spx roadmap being followed as expected, so far....
129
rsi trendline down...testing..holding R thus far in spx
119
70% bull crouching tiger in spx... not enough to go long, in fact suggsts at least some more down b4 up...last spy 111.93. tiger might not make 98% confidence...watching...
117
but poss BULL flag spx 60min
110
rsi spy downtrendline RSI holding as R
109
its dangerous for bulls if it is near the low of day at 2:15.... a downspike would break the low and trigger stops
1227
this pattern in spx usually does a down up down lower move.... could pop back up, then down. something like spx 1114, 1112, 1115, 1110
1225
nervous spy shorts would cover here near breakeven...i am staying short, for now
1224
spy broke the 10min bear wedge lower...and has not backtested it...just going down
1217
spy 133t is forming bear Head SHoulders pattern that suggests re-test of LOD or about 112.75. last spy 111.99 if neckline broken
1154
the spy 112.08 prev HOD pierced higher to 112.13....but this did not trigger upside accelleration...rather attracted a few sellers.... bearish unless the bulls mount another attack and pierce higher. watching to see if they do
1144
spy bear diverg price:macd hist. rising prices, falling hist, suggests eventual pullback lower. spx last 1116
1132
spy poss 10min bear rising wedge could actually be breaking lower here,,,despite SPY upmove... could see higher prices as it backtests the wedge, followed by lower spx spy. could go either way.
1104
spy spx is approaching oversold with little upward price movement, suggesting underlying weakness at least initially
1048
SPY forming a bear desc triangle in 10min chart, suggesting chop trade until 1:17 with a slight down bias. Of course, the FOMC 2:15 could stall things past 1:17 PM.
1023
this chart pattern will usually attract sellers....in spx. last 1113
1018
charts suggest that SPY will break the LOD... lower daily low expected
1016
poss 3min bear M in ES 3min for scalpers
1015
yes. spy shorts are behaving...
1002
the srs and skf are down this morn, but i still like these as midterm holding positions....
959
1min bear diverg spy-= for scalpers...
9:40
TRADE: short 500 shares SPY 111.82
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
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