IF IF IF tomorrow's close is bearish (Friday) then we may have seen a short term top in the SPX. I don't often say "top" or "bottom". Again, this is dependent on tomorrow's close; we will know more then. A close below 1098 and preferably under 1096/94 would be bearish.
The stochastic is at 70 with a BULLISH cross and curled up (bullish). But the RSI does not agree, with it's signal pointing down. Oftentimes, the stoch "catches up" to RSI 1-2 days later. If that happens here, then the stoch would turn back down without any significant rally (though could get a bounce).
Also bearish is the triple bearish divergence (see yellow lines in chart below). The MACD also has a bear cross (had a bull cross on 11/30, now changed to bear).
Bullish scenario (alternative):
Tomorrow could see a bounce up, and put in a 2 day Thurs / Friday candle pattern similar to 11/27 and 11/28. On 11/27 there was a red candle that closed near support at the 20 MA. The next day, 11/28 produced a bullish reversal candle pattern, and the start of a rally back up to 1117. Similar happened on the red candle on 11/19 and 11/20, with a bull rally to 1112. Further, the stochastic is at 70 with a BULLISH cross and curled up (bullish). But the RSI does not agree, with it's signal pointing down. Oftentimes, the stoch "catches up" to RSI 1-2 days later. If that happens here, then the stoch would turn back down without any significant rally (though could get a bounce).
will update more later...
today... key reversal day candle (higher high with a lower low, closing near the low)... further the candle has a large red body plus a topping tail (bearish). also the candle can be considered the 2 day bearish engulfing pattern.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
No comments:
Post a Comment