Friday, December 4, 2009

friday ramblings (and Thurs eve / Friday pre-market ES Futures)

SUMMARY:
very good day today. profitable trades.

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more spxu 3808

not buying more shares than would put me red...guaranteed gree profits today


one more try in more spxu today? maybe, not sure..

i am still stubbornly holding the 25% rest of spxu at breakeven around .77ish

grrr it might take me out...np still easy profits...

3877 not 3867 now

unless this is a very very good headfake trap,,,should see new lows

3752 stall is ok

they should have let it fall to 1096 b4 that lil 1 point move up...now they risk a blast thru the 1096

charts suggest bulls will need LOTS of energy to push this higher. but spx is dev some bull diverg....

ok...spxu setting up a bear diverg now...could limit upside...still see more up in spxu

202
spxu is not anywhre near oversold on the 60min...it could really sail

159
look at the HUGE shoot star in ES, as i mentioned yesterday we might see

155
i will sell a piece at 3867 limit

1:53
blasted right thru the 3812 trgt

150
a nice bull flag spxu 60min

140
lowering stops...give some room

139
.98 hit exactly then pulled back some...no prob

135
3798, 3712, then sail in spxu

134
added some more at .93

132
spxu needs 3813...that should give it momem up

130
spxu stops raised to breakeven for a free ride

128
3857 spxu trgt

128
there it goes...1 minute later...pop up in spxu :)
127
95% crouching tiger in spxu here...why i enter

[13:22:31]
TRADE:: trying some spxu  here at 3774....early entry might get  stopped out. 3740 stop for now, will raise later
 
1111
spx hit first trgt of 1105...see if stalls here and turns down, or goes for 1109

107
i might be interested in spxu at 37.24,,,,not sure yet...3762 last... conversely an sso trade could set up

103
charts are confused here now.. consolodating... and conflicting signals as to which way the consolod will break. still looks like some more up, then down,

1258
spx 1104/07 possibl...watching

1244
i think spx has some more upside before down...last 1104

out of skf...took profits

4 cents from skf stop...will prob get taken out...to lock profits, reentr later

sorry this is messy....very busy today........

skf backtesting its bull flag here...support areound 2470...last 2474

if 24.80 holds we will have a bull crouch tiger in skf


skf bull flag 15min chart


2523 skf trgt

adding skf here at .85....EARLY..no tiger yet but forming

i think skf will retest but no new entry signal for it yet...have it still from pre-mkt cheap

we arent close now but we should get a nice ccrouching tiger setup later to re enter...




TRADE: skf stop .65 now. skf stop missed by 3 cents...could take me out...

1206
today...1083 possible...i know it sounds crazy.... but we did get my 1098 yesterday...
i do not think the low is in for today.... lower than 1097 i expect...
TRADE:2468 and 3797 stops on skf and spxu

TRADE: tops raised in spxu  swing and skf swing to over breakeven
2468 and 3797 stops on skf and spxu

1146
slf 1448 target hit........hit EXACTLT 14.38 and bounced...
1128
charts suggest a break lower in xlf of the .59

1127
TRADE: 14.49 xlf target down

1123
xlf some off kilter bear HS 1 2 3 min,,,133t forming one maybe

1120
spxu forming a nice bull hammer (bear spx)

1107
careful long...the down vol is higher than up vol....


1106
spx 1110 is holding now, but it it breaks, a quick drop is expected

1101
SPX is testing 1110, as i expected at 10:02 post

11:00
TRADE: nervouse xlf could exit here near breakeven...i will stay

10:58
xlf .57 would create downside momen...last .61
1054
xlf down vol more than up vol...good chance .63 will break lower

1052
xlf did not hurdle .68 and now testing .63...if .63 fails could see 14.41

1045
xlf looks like it wants 14.74...last 1467
1026
TRADE: XLF mental stop at 14.63, hard stop 14.80

1025
spx has bull flag.
1022
xlf is only 1x...so just buy 3x the shares to mimic 3x

1014
TRADE: SHORT xlf 14.59

1008
i would not be surprised to see another down key reversal day today

1002
spx 1110 test, i expect... last spx 1118

9:56
this new high is setting up a powerful bearish divergence... it could take some time to manifest of course. look at the 60 min macd hist for spx. bearish diverg setting up.

9:50
SPX is up nicely!!! BUT, it could decline, we could easily see another shooting star or long tailed doji today too, though

9:34
TRADE: nervous spxu swings can exit here at breakeven or small profit...i'll stay in

9:29
When using 2x 3x etf...careful on setting stops to to close. the etfs will often overshoot by 5-15 cents when the ES or SPX does NOT break the high or low... it's the nature of the leverage/delevarage on the etfs.

9:14
TRADE: in SKF at 24.32 with ES at 1114. Wide stop for now at 23, due to volatility, since I don't mind holding this awhile through some turbulence. Budgeted for the decline to 23, though i do not expect it.

9:04
TRADE: SPXU stop lowered to 36.54, for normal trading hours after 930am (not pre-mkt). i might change again based on the volatility here.

7:24AM
Also, there is an XLF pattern that suggests 14.01 after 14.20. Last XLF 14.38

7:09
ES 1077? Overnight ES patterns can be tricky when trying to project future price moves, but there is a pattern in ES that suggests a decline to 1077.  MACD and other things suggest that there is more downside, esp if ES doesn't go much higher than 1106, and esp if we get the weekly bear candle and a close under 1096 spx today.

6:25AM
ES resistance to watch to see if they hold or break higher, are 1100, 1105. will perhaps add more targets up and down later.

6:21
The SPX low of 1099 yesterday is close to 1096.55, which is the 62% retracement from the upmove in SPX 1084 to 1117. So, we need to wait and see if (1) "that was it" for a retracement, with an SPX bounce to 1117 or 1125, or (2) whether there is further downside to 1085, and then lower than 1085.  Although SPX did retrace the 62%, I still expect #2, for now, but remain open to either bullish or bearish scenario.

6:12 AM
TRADE: I have a stop of 37.17 set on the spxu position to assure at least a ~1% profit. Yesterday, I took profits at 38.30 (2 cents from the 38.32 high, for a ` 4% profit in 1 day) on part of the spxu and kept the rest. Some might prefer to set stop higher at 37.30 to lock in more profit (but increases chance of getting stopped out pre-maturely)


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

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