Tuesday, December 22, 2009

wedn ramblings (and Tues eve ES futures)

351
lim sell 10% skf  24.21
 
350
yea the skf is outperforming qid, as expected

326
4547 support stall in the q

313
qqqq est close.... 45.37

310
charts suggest my QID will prob chop around for 4-7 days (not div by 3 :) ) before a larger move

301
this could be it...for the qqqq.... 4557... for today...lets see...weakening....

247
so we will prob see that wick matched in coming days....

247
*45.2289.,.... that matches the spike down

246
1 million shares qqqq red 45.22.... it's printede in the time and sales... fwiw... yes one million

243
i may keep the QID overnight swing...depends on close... riskier trade... but to me its a short at Resistance....

239
qqqq 6 cents from the .62 target

237
if your IRS status is "trading a a business".... it is much easier :)  for active traders... fwiw

236
grrr i typed my skf order 10 seconds to laqte... will not chase here

233
i will skf buy limit 24.07 if filled....last 2412... scaling back in

230
in the recent past, the qqqq did gap up the next day after a trickle up day like this... so could get scary for shorts... but i see a pullback coming....

227
i'd try a qqqq long on the backtest of the trendline... (if it happened)
 
339
i will sell some skf prob for scalp profit....but def keeping a swing size portion

226
right now, my charts suggest that will not happen...

225
right now, my charts suggest that will not happen...

223
i would consider qqqq bullish if 1. it broke the UTL (close but has not)... 2 Backtests the trendline, 3. pivots up off the backtest. otherwise, this qqqq action could just be exhaustion.

218
skf looks better than qid

214
the daily qqqq has a bear diverg forming... the bear diverg have been accurate and played out since 8/21 on daily scale


212
but... 45.66 is also UTL resist...depending on how the line is drawn

211
there is room in QQQQ uptrend R line up to a touch at 45.78ish...

204
qqqq boll band R is 45.56

203
they r bidding it up and selling into it, from what i see

158
marketmakers playing games,,, they are buying here, on the bid

154
the qqqq have moved almost straight up for last 2 hours, but only 11 cents in 2 hours......

144
the biggest "move" today was down, 9:50 to 10:20,,,, then we inched up slowly.... distribution??

142
poss dbl top intraday only in spy 1333t

136
the skf candle pattern of a green large candle with 3 small red ones is often a continutaton pattern, up in this case for skf (60 min). not ready to buy yet tho for me

134
this action today is favorable to the skf,,,, for later swing entry, not yet for me

129
marketmakers back on the sell side again here...for now,,,, but they quickly switch sides if needed.....
 
 
127
marketmakers back on the sell side again here...for now (bearish)

125
marginal break of the high in qqqq ....hit .52..... its' inching to .62 target, normally it would be there by now

114
one concern about being short here today is that the ES might want to re-test the pre-market high at 1120 (not seen during market hours)

108
this hourly candle pattern in spx qqqq etc is very bearish, tho it can continue for days in the low vol end of year. not suggesting a major trend change, but pullback should be forthcoming, tho maybe after jan 1.

103
QID bull crouch tiger if the qqqq stays under 45.50... 91% confidence level

101
charts say lower qqqq to me, today

1258
the qqqq marginal new intraday high did not trigger stops to pop higher...bearish.... see what happens on next try

1258
watching the skf to see if it puts in higher intraday low here....LOD 23.94....last 24.13

1257
bear shoot stars in ES QQQQ...on 3min...lower timeframe signal less strong... R held on first try is normal tho

1253
qqqq hit the .49 target...watching for the .62... the 45.62 should see a stall pullback if it gets there, i think

1246
Market Makers are leaning on the sell side for now,,, with the bid to buy much lower...in qqqq

1236
grrr this qid is stuck in a 2 cent range.... zzzzzz

1234
this qqqq bear rising wedge is getting tight... however, they do have a nasty habit of breaking higher before they exert the bearish influence for a move down after the pop up...

thus far qqqq has hit 45.47, or 2 cents from 4549 target. a breakout target would be 45..62... i remain short in qqqq via long qid tho. for now.

what do i mean "behaving"?   when i say "behaving" its shorthand for "this position is acting the way i expected. the trade premise is still solid"

qid is behaving here. last 19.36

conversely the 3min has a bull pattern in qqqq 3min suggests 45.62 possible... so could go either way...watching it ..

among other things, qqqq had triple bear diverg...but on the 3min chart... is not as strong a signal....

the 3min qqqq is weakening which is why i tried an early QID.... if it strengthens in qqqq i will exit qid then re-enter

TRADE: in QID at 19.35 stop 19 for now. will raise stop later. QID might want 19.10....

small spy positions would exit now...risk...exited 50% at .87

yes.large spy positions


would sell some here at R in strengths

at .94ish
 
 
 
.83 stop on 50% of spy

spy chart target pattern 112.18

looking for spy to hold .77....last .80

nervous spy would exit now breakeven and take the gift... i will stay long for now

spy 3 10 15 min continue to suggest pop higher in spy...stall at .95

spy mental stop .66

qqqq approaching the .49 target from yesterday...last 45.40

spy 3min has bullish rsi swing fail ...daytrade...suggests higher spy at 111.73
   
spy bull crouching tiger if spy stays over .67..... tiger at 85% confid now

adding some more spy here for daytrade at .71

selling my skf swing from before... will look to reenter again.... 24.26

1002
spy backtesting the broken coil line in daily.  near perfect touch

951
spy targets 112.30, 112.38, 112.64

9:48
TRADE: early entry. SPY long 111.91. stop 111 for now, will raise later.

8:54
As mentioned last night, a backtest of ES around 1107 could be expected in the coming 1-8 days. ES broke over the DTL daily and usually will backtest. The ability to hold over or break below that test should give some clues to market direction.

8:48 Wedn
ES made a marginal new high of 1120 (1119 prev) that has been rejected thus far. Last ES is 1116, which is an impt support level for bulls.


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

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