Thursday, December 17, 2009

thurs ramblings (and Wednesday eve / Thurs morning pre-market ES )

357
had one losing daytrade today, 3 winning daytrades, closed the skf swing at profit, took loss on srs swing.... overall green

337
spy "should" turn back down...will see

334
small positionl...shorted spy 110.36

314
skf trying breakout higher....xlf lower

312
xlf is falling...could ruin my spy scalp long

311
charts suggest spy 110.72 / 76 to me at least...will see

308
there was a good chance of spx 1093 today but bears didnt push it there....lesat not yet...not likely now

306
spy .62 and .73 targets with stall at each

------------
spy stop 110.28....not risking much

poss 3min spy bear HS forming...watching the long daytrade in spy...

50% crouching tiger bullish spy..entered early based on other signals...

i've been using SPY not sso or sds or spxu...just buy 2-3 times as much to mimic the 2x 3x etf

TRADE: trying a spy scalp long 110.39

---

i'm too tired mentally


to trade for now...going on break for

30mins or maybe rest of day...taking

tomorrow off....
 
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took profits in skf spy

out of skf for now (still have faz)....out of all spy except 25%....

oops my srs got stopped out...no prob...actually took lil loss on that swing...will look for better entry next week

.39 stop spy

ah...now spy is behaving...good..bakcing off the .30


changing srs to 7.98 stop...give lil room

surprisingly still in skf and srs...stops not hit


must protect profits so stops set

skf stop 2541. can always buy back

srs stop 8.01 i can always buy back

1253
dow 10,230ish would be very bearish...forget exact #...not today necessarily....but thats impt area

1250
covering some spy here....stop .37 on all but 25%

1247
uh oh....... spy macd 15min hist turning back DOWN...danger....

es 5 points from 1087 trgt...last 1092


109.87 spy trgt....

i see 1093 spx not


1095....
 
 
1239
1087 ES is very possible....if sustains under the 1093....will see. this break is marginal so far...doesnt count yet...watching///

1238
yes. ok so we got the retest of LOD spy not the inv HS ...as expected...

1226
there is a small 3min bulll diverg that suggests spy .35 will hold and not retest .30...but its close

1218
poss spy bull inv HS on 133t and 1min charts...is valid unless LOD tested...alt scenario

1216
charts suggest another push down here, then maybe up...down might be only to LOD..for scalpers...spx last 1099

1210
maybe not


all today to 1085ish...but charts do

say that unless bulls step in...we r

going there, even lower...not all

today of course. but, they could



1203
target:srs charts suggest 8.23 which is close to 8.19 prev signif high, on breakout over 8.02....last 7.93

1159
spy emergency stop set at 110.60.... to lock profit/breakeven

1151
bulls need to step in .... charts suggest 1085ish if they dont....actually suggest a BREAK under 1085 (not all today)...charts say selling is just beginning....unless the bulls step up. spx last 1099. now...they could step in and stop this...but unless they do, chart suggest it, to me. right now, charts suggest that they will not be able to hold it up....

1148
yes. spy hit 110.41 ...one penny from 110.40 target,,,and bounced stalled a lil...expected, no prob. still see lower

1147
charts suggest spx 1096....below LOD

1144
skf chart patterns suggest up to 25.60....which matches prev sig hi at 2561

1142
skf looks ready to breakout higher today

1141
ES needs to make a LOWER LO,,,,then a bull diverg will setup for a nice big scalp on the pop bak up

1138
ES is trying to form a


coil in 15min...well there is one...but

looks like will break to downside

pre-maturely b4 the apex
 
1135
es stall at 1096 here...held...should break lower....

1134
1096 94 87 85 trgts ES. stall at each one target

1132
spy headed for that .40ish trgt....dont have exact #....its behaving...broke the .60ish

1130
lol ..in time it took me to type that...i'm out of spy longs now...can always buy...sold at 2nd failed attempt around .80

1127
btw, most brokers, if you are SHORT and LONG the same stock at the same time (as i am with SPY) you need to use 2 different accounts, or likely you won't be able to close the short without first selling the long... u could get stuck...learned that the hard way some years back.... or... just use SDS instead of short spy and that avoids that prob.

--------------

spy 110.60 should give 110.40ish

shorted spy at 110.67..paying premium

looking for a spy short entry next....the .93 limit short is too high...never got a fill/....

grrr .72 stop hit...bounced rite after...meh...still have 25%....took profits on 75%

spy stop .72

spy 110.9 stall poss

1059
spy stop .73

1057
skf stop .02

1056
skf stop .08

1055
srs is being disobedient...charts say it should be going up...it stubbornly going down... stops raised to 7.60 srs for now...maybe sell earlier

1052
spy stop .57 now....holds there or im out

1050
setting skf stop at 25.11 for some of it..can always buy back...dont wanna stick around for gap fill

1042
poss bear 3min HS in skf...watching that one too

1040
skf looks like bull flag that trying to breakout...expect up then down...is normal on bullflags to re-test lower

1033
spy stop at .42 .... dont want to risk much on this flakiness

1030
spy moving up.... skf holding...hmmm

1026
but charts suggest more up in spy/.... 110.74 should stall if it gets there....last 110.55

1025
es at 1096...scalpers will take profits on some spy here

1024
spy scalp is behaving so far...

1020
90% spy crouch tiger bull for scalp ...but its countertrend so limited upside. if spy holds over .45 will prob get a 99-100% crouch tiger


1007
.45 ... .61 next skf


trgt/.... stall at .45 expected
 
954
skf back at 2533...testing that impt R again

952
TRADE: ABOVE the mkt... short SPY 111.93...last 111.70. not filled yet of course.

945
srs is at 7.90...rite at support...looking for it to hold near here...

944
considering spy short if ES gets 1100.  charts suggest small pop in es 3min. es last 1099

926
ES bull diverg 15min and other things suggest ES pop up from 1097 but prob won't make over 1100, or at least stall at 1100 to decide up or down. but with volume at 9:30 its possible it could pop higher

825
for 3 days i've been suggesting a possible SPY eve star bear reversal... might get it today, tomorrow or Monday/ tues. could easily happn today.

810
if skf tries a 3rd time to hurdle 2531 and fails, i might sell the skf for profit and re-enter at lower.... looking for it to break above and hold over 2531ish

759
might not see a vix volatility change until 1085ish broken lower....

755
SKF at 25.25 pre-market. R is at 25.31 and 25.42, 25.60, 26.19.  A hurdle over 25.33 today for SKF would be good

10000
TRADE: 600 spy long 110.40

ES 1094 is support, some mini bull diverg in spy on 1 2 3 min setting up, so scalping the spy

7:50
WOW ES just dropped down again to 1096. ES supports now 1094, 1087, 1085. R still 1104 (and lower R levels too of course).

7:44
ES 1104 R is key today, and 1096 S.  Be interesting to see if 1096 is tested again during market hours. ES has a habit of occassionally making overnight highs or lows, but then not testing them during 930--400 mkt hours.

7:31 AM Thurs
ES declined overnight to 1096. the 1096 support held (ES tested prior signif low at 1096, which held). The 1103 and 1100 ES were broken overnight, which were yesterdays support levels. Now will observe to see if 1100/1105 are converted to resistance, or if ES can hurdle those.

Last night, in the "Whats going on with spx post", I mentioned that I saw more downside movement before any move up. This roadmap is playing out. Still do not know which way this rectangle will break, but the lower test of support first has occurred.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

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