Wednesday, December 30, 2009

wedn ramblings (and Tues eve ES futures)

331
preparing to sell some of this xlf into the close if able, for profit

327
declining daily macd hist... stoch near OB... rsi flat,,,,rsi R holding.... too much bearishness for me to hold overnite

316
my software shows an underlying bid to hold it up...and selling into it... an old MM trick

315
xlf is close to cracking lower... but hasnt

313
hmm the spx hourly chart is forming a bull asc triangle here now... but other bear signs

311
if the MM drop the


xlf bid...should go down 10

cents...last 1442 xlf
 
 
310
MM have a bid under the xlf... but they r selling into it,for now. it

300
i cannot get filled in the more xlf short

259
ok 1443 xlf short limit

255
one cent from 1444 short fill xlf for more xlf

252
xlf 1448 possible in 133t chart patterns. i do not expect it, but pattern is there as poss

245
PG short still valid...lower prices here

222
xlf is entering overbought in 15min with little upward price movement,,,, bearish

219
looking for xlf to stay under 1444.. if not i may exit/reenter...will see

218
this xlf 10min is in a rectangle that i expect to break to downside in coming hours/days

211
xlf looks like broken south bear HS that is backtesting a lil . .. 60 min chart

206
spx 60min chart--- bear M.... plus bear desc triangle

205
hmm MM have an underlying bid...for now --bullish

159
1483 xlf new stop

154
xlf does have a potential bull inv HS forming tho.... watching out for that since im short the xlf (daily chart) .. would put xlf back around 15ish

151
i dont want to be long with that kind of close overnight... (spx eve star)... among other bearish signs ... suggests test of 1112 spx

150
the SPX is in danger of a bear eve star 3 day candle pattern close today... a close below yesterdays low would give that... and its already under it right now.

146
xlf has 60min rounded top, bear divergence, among other things, hence the XLF daytrade / swing short combo

137
xlf stop 1471 for now

135
shorting xlf 14.37

132
paying premium on faz daytrade expecting breakout... no breakout i keep it as swing

131
1945 in more faz....other piece from 1866

127
the 60min spx is in a downtrend

124
my QID swing is down red about 2.6%,,,, but i'm holding it still.... charts suggest lower prices in qqqq.... 2.6% loss not bad for a 2x etf ..... the VXX and PG swing profits cover the red qid
 
 
119
grr i covered too much of my PG short...only have small piece left.... oh welll

106
raising stop on 75% of vxx swing to 32.37....

1247
6115 impt PG support...see if holds nbounces or breaks lower

1245
PG trgt 6081 with stalls in between ...lower targets refined later on

1244
smaller positions would set stop at 61.29 on half of position or sell half now at .23

1242
PG is in the process of destroying the 15min bull diverg now...bearish....

1237
pg stop at 6147 for 75% of shares. locks in profit

1235
yes, pg broke lod :)

1232
charts suggest it will break the low lwoer

1231
pg is 2 cents from LOD...testing the low here

1230
rest of qqqq short just set to stopout at breakeven.... will cover that later if it goes down, else get stopped out and keep profits taken earlier

1229
PG has a bull diverg...watching the pg short....stop 6169

1220
PG is painting a huge shooting star / gravestone on the daily right now (of course if it closes higher that goes away)

1218
the PG is working better to daytrade short vs the q short. PG is often pokey and hard to daytrade, but its moving around nicely up n down here the last week

1216
the PG is about to test impt 6140 support...execting stall and break lower

1159
ok..daytrading the PG short now at 61.52

1154
LOL the marketmakers have stepped away...they appear to be in auto-watch mode... testing the retail...

1137
but it looks like the qqqq have some unfinished business on the downside before the diverg bullish kicks in. qqqq last 46.00

1136
qqqq --- possible bull diverg in 15min macd hist.... watching those shorts.....

1135
qqqq rsi resist held, and turned lower, and mow has marginal break below rsi support... if stays under the support...bearish for qqqq (among other things)

1130
will get more precise targets later for qqqq...this is what i have by glancing.... 4592, 45.55, 4493, 4473, 4381

1125
agreessive traders would add qqqq shorts here...i'll add some but have profits to play with from b4...higher risk...charts say the qqqq will make a lower low today.... qqqq 4603

1123
well..tite stop is low risk, but trade is agressive at 4608, whatever that means

1122
add MMORE QQQQ short 46.08 if filled...with a tite stop low risk

1119
qqqq 133t has a weird looking bear HS .. not classic formation

1118
4606 R held so far and q backed down to 4601

1117
one cent from 4606 at 05...not tested yet....

1113
still watching qqqq 4606 to see reaction if it gets there

1101
the qqqq should have bounced more here....at the 46....struggling.... lets see if bulls step up

1100
vix 20.93 and then over 24 would cause fireworks... (down in spx dow)...still far from that now at 20.25last

1055
yesterday i tried a momentum trade short the qqqq at 46.04.... made a minimal profit on it yesterday... but it could have been just 1-2 days early.... the last time i did a momentum trade was qqqq LONG on 12/18 that did not play out on 12/18... but 12/19 started a run up.... past performance no guar of future blah blah blah....might need to wait for jan 2 to see any followthru down...


1052
94% is confidence level, not "quaranteed level" ... number arrived at mostly with analysis of 20 indicators plus chart patterns pictures, and then my own interpretation... the 94% is not a purely mathematical calc... its a combo of math plus art ... why i say "confidence" level

1051
i have a sell long positinos signal now... qqqq 45.97
 
1050
i have a 94% confidence SWING SHORT qqqq setup here... depends on the close today... early qid entrys

small positions would cover 50% of q short here at 4601
 
took qqq profits on1038


1046
qqqq have good chance of breaking BELOW the LOD

1032
will take some profits there at qqqq LOD,,,,and keep at least 25% for lower with manual trailing stops

1027
the PG short is acting up here... but i remain short...stop still set at 62.07.. i might consider abandoning this trade today,,, but premise is still valid, for now

1025
bull QID crouching tiger (bear qqqq)... 97% confidence...qid needs to stay over 18.70 (daytrade tiger not swing)... (daytrade tiger not swing) ... qid last 18.73

1022
bear qqqq signals: declining rsi 60',,, 60' rsi at R, declining macd hist daily, daily stoch bear cross
Bull qqqq: over the MA, up for the day

1021
qqqq 133t chart===bearish daytrade

956
qqqq could go for 46.31

953
btw VXX is jerky... so i do not play that for daytrades... it jumps around in 10 cent incrememnts lol.. the lower vol of VXX exacerbates this phenomena. usually i like stocks with vol over 10million/day,,,, or 5M

951
TRADE:   shorting the qqqq 46.20 daytrade... stop 46.53 for now..will change the stop later
 
936
stop 30.93 on the vxx for now... will change later

934
long some VXX 32.74...for mid term swing. This is EARLY entry... before confirmed break over the R

917
considering an entry LONG in the VXX today.... the vxx would be a 1-9 month hold

840
Right now, ES is trading BELOW both the 20MA and 50MA on the 60min chart, with a bear 20/50 cross. It is ABOVE the daily 20/50 MA.

8:30 AM wedn
On Tuesday around 6:00 AM the ES made a high of 1128.50. The Tuesday low was 1120.50. In overnight trading, the ES broke under the tues 1128.50 low, and made an overnight low of 1113. It bounced up off the 1113 and is currently at 1117, or down 4.75 points from yesterday's close.

ES under 1122 (or esp under 1119) would be bearish, the bulls intraday will want to push it over the 1119 to 1122 for a run back up at 1128.50 (with stops and stalls in between).

More details and targets later, perhaps.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

No comments:

Post a Comment