Success.
On the Feb 4 posting, when QQQQ was at 42.62, I went on record that QQQQ would reach 44.47. This was accurate, as QQQQ hit 44.05 on Feb 19.
Now, I expect the QQQQ to now move back down to 42.21, last QQQQ is 44.76.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Sunday, February 28, 2010
Friday, February 26, 2010
Multi-month position: shorted the QQQQ
I might add more shorts today, for multi-month hold.
Yesterday on the rally to the 50 MA i ADDED to my multi-month position by shorting the qqqq. If funds are available, for multi-month positions, I prefer to just short QQQQ instead of using the 2x 3x etfs like qid and typ, though typ and qid work too.
Of course, stops are in place, very loose stops at 47.27. Other places to put stops would be 45.17 (conservative) or 45.87. If using the lower stops, I would allow myself to get stopped out, then re-enter if merited. I'm using the 45.17 MENTAL stop for my swing shorts (I will exit the short at a loss IF IT SUSTAINS OVER 45.17, not just on a minor piercing on low intraday volume).
Just some ideas
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Yesterday on the rally to the 50 MA i ADDED to my multi-month position by shorting the qqqq. If funds are available, for multi-month positions, I prefer to just short QQQQ instead of using the 2x 3x etfs like qid and typ, though typ and qid work too.
Of course, stops are in place, very loose stops at 47.27. Other places to put stops would be 45.17 (conservative) or 45.87. If using the lower stops, I would allow myself to get stopped out, then re-enter if merited. I'm using the 45.17 MENTAL stop for my swing shorts (I will exit the short at a loss IF IT SUSTAINS OVER 45.17, not just on a minor piercing on low intraday volume).
Just some ideas
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
friday ramblings (and Thurs eve / Friday pre-market ES Futures)
400
wow!!!! vix hit my exact target at 16:00 pm.... 1984
350
more selling here....for me (10 cent price drop)
329 PM
expected vix to close over 1984 today.... last 1938...
324
my software says the marketmakers continue selling into this,, at 108pm, and now again
320
the qqqq is starting to break down out of its bear rising wedge here... suggesting downward in the coming days
248
inability to push the q's to 45 on light volume is not bullish
242
few days ago... sold the calls at 60 cents, covered at 42 cents for 30% profit
Inaccurate:
211
4456 qqqq test could happn still today
400
wow!!!! vix hit my exact target at 16:00 pm.... 1984
350
more selling here....for me
349
sell programs on my software now
347
the VIX 1957 target hit.. :).... 1984 next .... hit exeactly 1957 and backed down
346
adding more qqqq shorts swing
342
1957 vix and 1984 targets on vix
341
vix climbing toward my 1984 target up from 1938...last 1947
339
i have a SWING SHORT qqqq signal if the qqqq close under 4474
329 PM
expected vix to close over 1984 today.... last 1938...
325
suggests lower prices in coming hours days
324
my software says the marketmakers continue selling into this,, at 108pm, and now again
320
the qqqq is starting to break down out of its bear rising wedge here... suggesting downward in the coming days
254
my software says the MM are on the bid, selling into this
248
inability to push the q's to 45 on light volume is not bullish
242
few days ago... sold the calls at 60 cents, covered at 42 cents for 30% profit
235
will buy back some today if they drop (take profits)
234
expecting those 61 cent calls to drop to 30 cents approx
228
filled on the 61 cents
223
selling calls qqqq at 61 cents
220
qqqqq might have just topped for the day....
217
954 TYP
212
qqqq broke above the intraday bull wedge but are now back inside ... loooks like 60min bear wedge forming... bull inside a bear
211
4456 qqqq test could happn still today
208
the WEEKLY qqqq candle setup is bearish....
206
daytrade short setup still valid surprisingly...nervous could exit now breakeven
205
weakening q's
159
the 60min qqqq is dev a bearish rising wedge... takes longer to take effect
156
qqqq marginally violating that wedge to upside now...
154
see what happense here and at 4486....
153
thus far.... the qqqq rejected the 4480 but its first try...see what happns on second try
153
right here is impt test in the qqqq at 4480....watching reaction.... there's more vol here so test impt
151
the q's still have that bull falling wedge intraday...
144
aapl is neutral here to slightly weaker
138
the 60min qqqq candles remain bearish tho.. those are topping pattern candles
136
need to be careful short here... i'm short but watching ... NOW maybe a BULL fall wedge qqqqq 3min all day wedge...
112
there are mixed signals tho... could break higher too so watching for that... bias still down for now for me... if we see a vol move up i'll get bullish
111
if the q's break 4460 with force i might short "down there"... aggressive trade... unsure if it has merit now....i would only do that with heavy volume,,,,
108
hmm my software signaled "marketmakers selling"...earlier today shorted not now.... just another tidbit... that would suggest a move lower into the close
1257
still have the q's short daytrade from 4476...holding it for breakout if it comes..tho today is narrow range
1255
my qqqq scalp just got covered atain at the 4466.... hit 4467
1253
i had a "buy mkt vxx stop mkt 2661 and got filled 2666ish
1251
yea took some 2666 vxx daytrade
1250
scalping 10k shares 4467 -- 4477 gives $1,000 profit each time,,,, $500 for 5000 shrs,
1243
vix looking better here...crawling up
1242
reshorting at the 4476 / 4477 again here.... taking back the scalps i covered
1240
if qqqq hit 4423 then the 42 in that timefram would be suspect... here come the disclaimers lol
1237
make it by next friday...easier to remember
1236
i'll go on record for this: i expect qqqq to 42 in 4 days... last 4472
1231
the q's have 3 bearish 60min candles
1227
reloading q's at 4468....riskier but have profits from b4
1225
why? cuz the 10min 13min are deteriorating....
1224
the qqqq rising 3min stoch represents an opp to reload short in a lil while, vs an opp to go long
1220
scalpers can re-load on 4474 limit short if filled, with stop in place of course... last 4466...
1219
limit orders set for cover at 4433 to catch any quick spike down
1217
of course took some scalp profits as the qqqq retested the prior 4464
1216
the "simple view" rsi 60min under 61 has worked today also....bearish under that.... has been unable to get over it
1215
a bounce to 4473 here would be ok if it comes
1215
4444 q downside target...interesting...target calc comes to same 4444 as 2 days ago...
1213
there go the q's yea..... watch to take profits scalping on the stalls....daytrade holding for more of course... roadmap very good thus far
1211
if i hadnt taken scalp profits b4 at 4465 i would take them here
1211
looks like it will break
1210
if this 4466 holds i'll take scalp profits ... but waiting first to see if breaks lower...could bounce here
1209
poss bear HS pattern forming in 3min q's
1207
one more pop to qqqq 4480 wont damage the short setup,,
1205
this is the inverse of what we saw yesterday.... look at 10AM to 1PM yest and compare to today in same time frame... we haave a bear pattern mimicing the bull pattern from yest
1156
qqqq stall at 4464 expected, will take some scalp profits there for 2nd time if able, and hold rest for better profits
1154
backtest could go to 4479ish if it comes....doesnt always backtest,,, could go in narrow boring range here
1153
ok the q's have broken my 3rd and usually final UTL....now a backtest up would be ok... then down below the 4462 would seal the daytrade short,,, scalpers taking some profits there for the 2nd time, and daytraders holding for the lower levels
1149
q's "should hold here a little... if not then the 3rd UTL is very weak
1147
this 3rd qqqq UTL could hold here an push the qqqq to 4486ish... or could break...watrching
1144
a break of 4474 might do it for q's ....hard to tell...there is poss 3rd UTL there...
1145
a 3min close in the q's under 4463 would be bearish for daytrades
1142
ok the qqqq breaking it's 2nd 2min UTL... should fall moderately to form the 3rd and final utl before a fall and shorts kick in .. thus far qqqq is following the daytrade roadmap from 10:00 AM
1141
4480 q resist here
1129
11:34am should give either under 1170 or over 1178,,, bias down
1128
q's have a triple bear diverg forming 3min
1126
possible qqqq break up or down at 1134.... nothing dramatic
1123
q's breaking utl#2 here.... #3 to form,,, another lil push up possible, then down i expect
1120
the q's 13min chart continues to weaken, forming a backdrop for the daytrade short....
1120
4470 is utl#2 support
1119
the q's 2min chartis on its 2nd UTL of 3 normal... expecting to break the 2nd UTL lower, form a 3rd UTL, then fall
1113
looking for q to hold under 4477 here....
1108
scalpers would take the 1% profits here in typ
1100
15min bear harami candles in the q's
1100
that q short is working,, strengthening
1047
i remain daytrade short the qqqq 300% position size... trade premise still valid for me
1045
considering aapl short at 208ish... UNSURE... setup incomplete... might go long instead... aapl looks ready for a big move ... but my setup is not there yet... not likely to get the setup till next week
1042
many R layers close together in the q's "up here"
1040
daytrade short q premise still valid to me,,,,i remain short from 4476
1040
my work suggests that this is not as bullish as it appears.... yet
1038
at the very least, even if this is a qqqq breakout,,, i would expect a baktest to its broken UTL 60min
1035
a 15min close under 4460 would be fantastic for shorts if it comes...last 4471
1031
grrr i could not get a fill on TYP so directly shorting qqqq here... typ vol abysmal....4476... shorting 3x # of q shares to mimic the typ
1027
daytrade typ at 951... qqqq 4471ish ... qqqq could see 4480/90/4505 but trying the short q here
1022
if qqqq sustain over 4505ish i will likely dump my TYP and look for re-entry, or maybe even long
1018
aapl rite at 204 R.... see if it can break it higher for 208
1016
qqqq trying for 4481 target up...last 4462... so those r micro up and down side trgts
1013
my fxp china short doing better than short qqqq.. as expected... yest i traded some of the q shorts in for fxp, as posted when i said "forget TYP"
1011
micro look... watching if qqqq halts at 4458 instead of 4460... or if it hurdles 4460
1006
simple view: while qqqq 60min rsi < 66 (pref < 61) qqqq bearish... 14 period rsi... i use other indicator combos...thats just a quick glance view
1004
charts suggest 4440 will break
1004
qqqq 4440 break should give 4432
959
i'm short qqqq but as mentioned several times, i still do NOT LIKE the fact that acc/dist has a bull diverg BUT Money Flow is neutral ... the ADX is neutral right now suggesting sideways
955
aapl is trying to push over 203 R but there's more R at 204 R. if 204 breaks then 208 trgt
951
the qqqq 4460 is impt pivot...will it act as support or R? watching
950
i'm watching the ung reaction to 896 test... breakout? reject? consolodate? then i might take a position
947
fxp stop 883 for now. alt stops 911 and 899
942
4440 4432 qqqq down targets ...last 4447... see if the supports hold or break lower
939
paas near breakeven now,,,still short
937
PAAS short silve gapped up but is putting in a bear shooting star...
811
charts right now suggest a break below the 1101 before 9:30 AM is possible, tho the range 1101-08 could easily continue until more volume comes after 930. but bias is down now
7:54 AM
ES futures are in a range 1101 to 1108. Between 1101 and 1108 is neutral, a break over 1108 suggests 1110 then 1113, 1120. If 1120 is hurdled and sustained then the bulls could start to get some upside momentum. If bears break under 1101 then targets 1094, 1090, 1085, and if 1085 is broken then 1066 and 1039 are targets down. If 1039 is broken lower, then the bears will have momentum.
The 1085 - 1120 range is very important, and a break either way should determine direction of the bull or bear. I attach great significance to this range because IT IS THE SAME RANGE that ES was in from 11/12 to 12/21.
So today's pivots: under 1101 bearish and over 1108 bullish.
Mid term pivots: under 1085 bearish and over 1120 bullish.
I remain bearish until 1120 is broken to the upside.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Thursday, February 25, 2010
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Is this move down a repeat of July? Detailed chart comparison
Of course the market can turn higher, but I remain bearish for many reasons in addition to this chart.
But I've been hearing many analysts comparing the recent downturn in February to the one in July, as they advocate a rally to follow.
However, I view this as "different". Yes, we often think the current one is different, but note the attached chart below.
In short: More # of days under 50 MA now, the 20/50 MA cross this time.
For all corrections: prices decline or sideways at best when MACD hist peaks, lower RSI low, a lower RSI high.
I've included the July, November, and February moves under the 50 MA in the chart and compared them.
There are text notes in the chart, double click on it to see it in the full large size.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
Thurs ramblings (and Wednesday eve / Thurs morning pre-market ES )
422
i know that other stocks might give a better % return than appl... but the aapl chart is "clean", to me
421
i'm watching AAPL and will be taking a position in it in the coming hours or days... the charts are strongly suggesting that AAPL is about to make a significant move in one direction or the othe. waiting to see if it will be long or short but the short side is favored, for now, for multiple reasons. but i'll jump long on aapl if merited. could be wrong... but this chart setup in aapl... it usually results in a large move. move will not happen in one day, but in 3-21 days type thing
415
for me, we have a higher low but not higher hi yet... i'm using the 11/02 high... i prefer the more conservative (harder to get) higher high over the last high that touched the trendline before it broke ... in this case 11/02
414
on sds daily... draw a trendline from highs from8/19/09 until 11/3 and extend it down... sds broke OVER that dtl and has backetested it, on daily and it is currently OVER the DTL
409
bearish from swing perspective in coming days, not necessarily just tomorrow
408
i'm still bearish... the daily and 60 min DTL have not been violated. Have not pierced up and backtested... and very overbought with declining macd and bearish divergences
403
since spx tested the 50 MA resist on 2/19, we have gotten lower highs and lower lows on daily candles
402
i view it more as just a move between S and R today... the candles work much better when there's a trend,,, we are moving sideways here, or a mild downtrend the last few days
400
hmm q's closed at 4460...missed the 4452 trgt close
358
what happened today? we tested support. it held. then bounced up to resist. it held. charts suggest the next move is down to me
350
looking for the last qqqq 60min candle to close around 4452... last 4464
335
typ 958 filled also
334
first fill.... typ at 961
332
limit buy 962 typ
323
for now i'll do limit buy TYP at 958
317
the qqqq have formed a nice down channel in 60min chart.. very easy to see it now
301
i do not have a re-enter short setup here... qqqq 4442
258
still looking to short that silver PAAS... hit the 2140 target but i want to make sure it doesnt want higher first....getting close
221
i intend to add more FXP when these charts look cleaner
208
the chinese market is weaker than usa right now...earlier last yr was stronger but no longer
206
forget TYP.... buying some FXP here at 9.45
200
took profits in typ...stopped out
157
qqqq nailed that target #1...see if it backs down now....
156
or 968 typ stop...mental stop on typ
155
972 stop on typ to take profits there
152
this looks impressive qqqq but thus far merely a marginal violation of the HOD with a few layers of R above.....
151
4429 QQQQ resist...might stop there
146
lets see what happn qqqq 4414 last 4408
126
MM dropped bids... see if it retreats... last 4400 qqqq
124
paas target is 2147 then 2170... last 2125... waiting still to short that silver
123
at same time qqqq exhibiting signs of re-testing high of day and poss hit higher targets from 2 hrs ago.... still not going long,,,remain short
121
adx is suggesting a move down to lower intraday lows....
120
hmm interestingly the DMI ADX is saying "more lower prices.... downtrend getting stronger" even tho its moving up here...this is tricky
119
that "up then down" pattern i mentioned before... this is the "up" part...so far very weak,,, still in the "up part"
117
often they will have an underlying bid while they sell into it,,, then when they r done selling they drop the bid and the market drops
116
MM are holding this up but i think they r selling into while holding up...hard to tell from my software readings
110
tiger weaker now 73%
108
the inability of the bulls to get over 1090 spx is extremeeeeeeeeeeeely bearish... thus far unable...watching to see if they do
106
ok they r letting off the bid now... *whew*...still watching...this is tricky here for me at least
104
might sell typ early if qqqq break higher.. i do not like the underlying bid.... but waiting
103
TYP stop at 9.78,,,,might raise it or exit b4 then....
1256
PAAS taking off....
2114...why i waited to short silver
1255
gary.... i am glad charts look like this now at 1255pm instead of at 4pm....charts like this at 4pm...me no like.. maybe it will actually close clearly
1253
the qqqq candle close 15min from 945AM still valid...but so close it's iffy
1252
qqqq....hard to tell if MM playing games and painting charts here... looks bullish but stilll not long setup for me
1251
still watching paas to short...but a close over 20.73 on 60min suggests more up, so waiting, tho the 2101 right here is decent entry but early
1248
qqqq up targets would be 4414, 4423, 4431 ... not trading it long
1242
hmm ok my charts suggest another one of those up down patterns like we got other day... if the q's break over 4303 and 4314ish
1240
88% confidence on qqqq crouching tiger.... candle close 15min over 4403 still valid too... but its a contratrend tiger so less powerful
1234
bears have pushed AAPL UNDER its daily 50 MA and now under 20MA... bears barely (no pun) did it, but its there
1231
taking some qqqq options profits now at 33% profit, holding most for better levels... options that i got yest or day b4...i forget lol
1230
if VIX can close a 15min candle over 22% that would be bullish vix, bearish spx qqqq
1229
VIX is holding for now.... but no bear crouching tiger on it... tiger confid 73% now (moderate)
1226
hmm this is tricky here now.... could go either way... still bearish intraday but finger is on the "cover shorts" button lol
1219
i might sell some typ if qqqq breakout higher.... not yet...
1216
paas hit that 20.97 target to short...but waiting
1203
i want to short the PAAS silver but being patient... 20.97 short is viable but i'll wait even longer to see what it does.. could go higher
1202
2190 comp.... watching reaction if it gets there.. bounce or penetrate? should stall 2190/84.... last 2201
1158
if ADX can rise over 21 in 60min that could create fireworks .. over 30 would be awesome, last 18.45
1156
ok the DMI ADX is now saying DOWNTREND FORMING but not 100%... 80% confidence.. it is beginning to confirm the downtrend should accelerate.... in the daily and 60min ADX DMI
1151
to be more bearish, i want to see the qqqq 60min rsi make a lower low...it has NOT done so yet
1149
the bears really need to push lower today, i know this looks like a nice red candle already, but if they don't push lower, it will setup the charts for a bounce back up. i still expect such a bounce to be a lower high, but it will keep us locked in this range....
1149
qqqq look like they will break this time lower..last 4392
1144
BEARS still need to break the 20 MA daily, and CLOSE BELOW it .. until then we can see this chop between the 50 and 20 MA.... i remain bearish tho
1139
thinking of using PAAS short instead of ZSL or SLV short, for the silver short trade....
1107
for last 3 days i've been waiting for entry to short silver... not ready yet but starting to get closer
1057
when i see heavy selling like that, near resist 2800, i step aside....
1056
i am EXITING the ABC long now, near breakeven, a small losss... dont like this.. can always re-enter... out at 2789
1054
hmm ABC just saw some heavy selling at 2790...need to watch this for possible HOD.... still bullish but warning....
1052
lets see how qqqq does on next test up of 4403. last 4401
1050
the ABC is amazingly resilient
1049
nice. ABC long seems destined to test yest hi at 2804,,, charts surprisingly suggest a breakout over it today IF it stays over 2774ish! last 2794
1047
thus far, the 15min candle close over 4303 idea has held... qqqq hit 4303 but did NOT CLOSE the candle over it
1046
hmm there is a poss mild bull diverg in qqqq 15minutes tho, so watching this... could get whipsaw
1045
but charts suggest a break under 4390 to test the low, at least, of 4383
1044
qqqq just survived the first hit to 4390 supp...held 4391...
1043
*under 1092 not 1090
1043
i still expect spx to make a lower low intraday, then bounce, and close under 1090 today
1040
qqqq need to hold 4390 else a new low of day...last 4394....hold 4390 could bounce up
1035
spx will likely stall at 1092 to 1090, then maybe up more..last 1090.50
1029
ABC stall at 28000/2804 expected, last 2792
1029
ABC long position is rocking up, esp considering this awful spx red day
1028
1090 spx conintues to maintain authority... the NEXT try to pierce it higher could work....watching
1023
wow the ABC long recovered nicely....now is only dow 0.23% ... nervous ABC longs could exit here, i will stay long for now
1022
qqqq moving up a lil but i do NOT trust long yet,,,still no 4303 close on 15min
1020
abc 2781 stall expected...last 2780
1019
good... ABC made a marginal new high... trying to fill its gap...wathcing that one
1017
then use the 133t 1,2,3 min to time the entry
1016
a qqqq close over 4403 candle 15min would likely give a daytrade long qqqq but i won't take it ... not sure that it will give the setup on 4403 but it looks likely
1014
spx 1090 R is holding auth so far... some pops over it are allowed but inability to get 1103 would be very bearish
1012
the BERKSHIRE short newly entered yesterday is down nice, on track.. yea i know many wouldn't short warren buffet
1010
ok there was the 1090 down to 1088 b4 over 1090,,, still no scalp long signal
1009
the ABC long is recovering nicely and doing ok during this onslaught in spx. i might close the abc today for small profit or small loss, depending on charts
1007
i thnk spx will move down to 1088 before over 1090....last 1090
1006
i do not even have a scalp long setup on qqqq (smallest setup: scalp, daytrade, swing, position)
1000
lets see if spx 1092 holds its authority, with a max high today of 1094 / 1101
957
STOP 2743 on ABC long.... its down 0.81%
955
last night... i called for a close today under 1092 spx....lets see if we get it... if we do, very bearish, and more down in coming days even on a bounce up... the mid range spx down targets should get hit if the close comes
946
i could have gotten a better price on csco but just wanted out of it...took the profits a bit early... csco was showing "relative" strength so i abandon
938
took CSCO profits....all gone at 23.97
936
vix up 9.8% :)
935
wow qqqq taget 4388 and bounced...one penny from target
933
the QQQQ calls i wrote yest are up 30% profit today ... took a few profits, holding most for much better profits
929
right now, i see no recovery high. that might change, but since 2/19 i've said 2/19 is the high for now b4 we break the prior low... that analysis still valid IMHO
901
qqqq' targets similar to yesterday's... premarket this morn i see the q's hit the 4423 target from yesterday,,,
8:58 AM
my sds targets 35.63 3578 3621 3657 3711 3787 3798 3823 3847 3863 3897 3935 in coming hours days
Wedn 11:14 PM
Summary
I remain bearish the QQQQ (and spx) despite today's move up.
Minor details
This up down up down sideways action is typical of topping patterns. We still have the bear eve star from yest, rsi is down, volume on green days remains lower than red days. Further the QQQQ failed to re-test the last minor high today, not making it up. This morning I called that the QQQQ would not make it over .73,,,, they did make it higher but not much. So the QQQQ continue on the roadmap I put out last week pretty well thus far.
Bullish warnings
There are some bullish signs also, so a move up cannot be ruled out. I just remain bearishly biased until more bullish action presents itself. The Money Flow and other breadth indicators are still bullish.
Sideways
The QQQQ are stuck between the 20 and 50 MA, bouncing around there, which is creating this sideways action. But yest I mentioned sideways as likely, based partly on the ADX DMI. Mid-day today I mentioned that ADX still said sideways, and it is starting to move bearishly but nothing conclusive there. The 10 min QQQQ does show lower highs...
The QQQQ need a close BELOW yesterdays low to be bearish. If they can close over yest HIGH that would start to move things bullishly.
Recent swing "duds"
The past few days I did enter and exit a few swings with minor profits. This is due to the sideways action. The premise for the trade weakened (was still valid but weaker) so I decided to abandon these and re-invest elsewhere. It's frustrating to close trades at 1/2 % profit, but better than a loss, or holding it for 2 weeks waiting for some movement.
TBT took a loss yesterday. VXX is red now.
Other successful trades
But we've had some nice gains lately too, as posted in posts below. Today took 2% a few times on daytrading TYP,,,, yesterday took 20% and 80% profits on qqqq options
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
i know that other stocks might give a better % return than appl... but the aapl chart is "clean", to me
421
i'm watching AAPL and will be taking a position in it in the coming hours or days... the charts are strongly suggesting that AAPL is about to make a significant move in one direction or the othe. waiting to see if it will be long or short but the short side is favored, for now, for multiple reasons. but i'll jump long on aapl if merited. could be wrong... but this chart setup in aapl... it usually results in a large move. move will not happen in one day, but in 3-21 days type thing
415
for me, we have a higher low but not higher hi yet... i'm using the 11/02 high... i prefer the more conservative (harder to get) higher high over the last high that touched the trendline before it broke ... in this case 11/02
414
on sds daily... draw a trendline from highs from8/19/09 until 11/3 and extend it down... sds broke OVER that dtl and has backetested it, on daily and it is currently OVER the DTL
409
bearish from swing perspective in coming days, not necessarily just tomorrow
408
i'm still bearish... the daily and 60 min DTL have not been violated. Have not pierced up and backtested... and very overbought with declining macd and bearish divergences
403
since spx tested the 50 MA resist on 2/19, we have gotten lower highs and lower lows on daily candles
402
i view it more as just a move between S and R today... the candles work much better when there's a trend,,, we are moving sideways here, or a mild downtrend the last few days
400
hmm q's closed at 4460...missed the 4452 trgt close
358
what happened today? we tested support. it held. then bounced up to resist. it held. charts suggest the next move is down to me
350
looking for the last qqqq 60min candle to close around 4452... last 4464
335
typ 958 filled also
334
first fill.... typ at 961
332
limit buy 962 typ
323
for now i'll do limit buy TYP at 958
317
the qqqq have formed a nice down channel in 60min chart.. very easy to see it now
301
i do not have a re-enter short setup here... qqqq 4442
258
still looking to short that silver PAAS... hit the 2140 target but i want to make sure it doesnt want higher first....getting close
221
i intend to add more FXP when these charts look cleaner
208
the chinese market is weaker than usa right now...earlier last yr was stronger but no longer
206
forget TYP.... buying some FXP here at 9.45
200
took profits in typ...stopped out
157
qqqq nailed that target #1...see if it backs down now....
156
or 968 typ stop...mental stop on typ
155
972 stop on typ to take profits there
152
this looks impressive qqqq but thus far merely a marginal violation of the HOD with a few layers of R above.....
151
4429 QQQQ resist...might stop there
146
lets see what happn qqqq 4414 last 4408
126
MM dropped bids... see if it retreats... last 4400 qqqq
124
paas target is 2147 then 2170... last 2125... waiting still to short that silver
123
at same time qqqq exhibiting signs of re-testing high of day and poss hit higher targets from 2 hrs ago.... still not going long,,,remain short
121
adx is suggesting a move down to lower intraday lows....
120
hmm interestingly the DMI ADX is saying "more lower prices.... downtrend getting stronger" even tho its moving up here...this is tricky
119
that "up then down" pattern i mentioned before... this is the "up" part...so far very weak,,, still in the "up part"
117
often they will have an underlying bid while they sell into it,,, then when they r done selling they drop the bid and the market drops
116
MM are holding this up but i think they r selling into while holding up...hard to tell from my software readings
110
tiger weaker now 73%
108
the inability of the bulls to get over 1090 spx is extremeeeeeeeeeeeely bearish... thus far unable...watching to see if they do
106
ok they r letting off the bid now... *whew*...still watching...this is tricky here for me at least
104
might sell typ early if qqqq break higher.. i do not like the underlying bid.... but waiting
103
TYP stop at 9.78,,,,might raise it or exit b4 then....
1256
PAAS taking off....
2114...why i waited to short silver
1255
gary.... i am glad charts look like this now at 1255pm instead of at 4pm....charts like this at 4pm...me no like.. maybe it will actually close clearly
1253
the qqqq candle close 15min from 945AM still valid...but so close it's iffy
1252
qqqq....hard to tell if MM playing games and painting charts here... looks bullish but stilll not long setup for me
1251
still watching paas to short...but a close over 20.73 on 60min suggests more up, so waiting, tho the 2101 right here is decent entry but early
1248
qqqq up targets would be 4414, 4423, 4431 ... not trading it long
1242
hmm ok my charts suggest another one of those up down patterns like we got other day... if the q's break over 4303 and 4314ish
1240
88% confidence on qqqq crouching tiger.... candle close 15min over 4403 still valid too... but its a contratrend tiger so less powerful
1234
bears have pushed AAPL UNDER its daily 50 MA and now under 20MA... bears barely (no pun) did it, but its there
1231
taking some qqqq options profits now at 33% profit, holding most for better levels... options that i got yest or day b4...i forget lol
1230
if VIX can close a 15min candle over 22% that would be bullish vix, bearish spx qqqq
1229
VIX is holding for now.... but no bear crouching tiger on it... tiger confid 73% now (moderate)
1226
hmm this is tricky here now.... could go either way... still bearish intraday but finger is on the "cover shorts" button lol
1219
i might sell some typ if qqqq breakout higher.... not yet...
1216
paas hit that 20.97 target to short...but waiting
1203
i want to short the PAAS silver but being patient... 20.97 short is viable but i'll wait even longer to see what it does.. could go higher
1202
2190 comp.... watching reaction if it gets there.. bounce or penetrate? should stall 2190/84.... last 2201
1158
if ADX can rise over 21 in 60min that could create fireworks .. over 30 would be awesome, last 18.45
1156
ok the DMI ADX is now saying DOWNTREND FORMING but not 100%... 80% confidence.. it is beginning to confirm the downtrend should accelerate.... in the daily and 60min ADX DMI
1151
to be more bearish, i want to see the qqqq 60min rsi make a lower low...it has NOT done so yet
1149
the bears really need to push lower today, i know this looks like a nice red candle already, but if they don't push lower, it will setup the charts for a bounce back up. i still expect such a bounce to be a lower high, but it will keep us locked in this range....
1149
qqqq look like they will break this time lower..last 4392
1144
BEARS still need to break the 20 MA daily, and CLOSE BELOW it .. until then we can see this chop between the 50 and 20 MA.... i remain bearish tho
1139
thinking of using PAAS short instead of ZSL or SLV short, for the silver short trade....
1107
for last 3 days i've been waiting for entry to short silver... not ready yet but starting to get closer
1057
when i see heavy selling like that, near resist 2800, i step aside....
1056
i am EXITING the ABC long now, near breakeven, a small losss... dont like this.. can always re-enter... out at 2789
1054
hmm ABC just saw some heavy selling at 2790...need to watch this for possible HOD.... still bullish but warning....
1052
lets see how qqqq does on next test up of 4403. last 4401
1050
the ABC is amazingly resilient
1049
nice. ABC long seems destined to test yest hi at 2804,,, charts surprisingly suggest a breakout over it today IF it stays over 2774ish! last 2794
1047
thus far, the 15min candle close over 4303 idea has held... qqqq hit 4303 but did NOT CLOSE the candle over it
1046
hmm there is a poss mild bull diverg in qqqq 15minutes tho, so watching this... could get whipsaw
1045
but charts suggest a break under 4390 to test the low, at least, of 4383
1044
qqqq just survived the first hit to 4390 supp...held 4391...
1043
*under 1092 not 1090
1043
i still expect spx to make a lower low intraday, then bounce, and close under 1090 today
1040
qqqq need to hold 4390 else a new low of day...last 4394....hold 4390 could bounce up
1035
spx will likely stall at 1092 to 1090, then maybe up more..last 1090.50
1029
ABC stall at 28000/2804 expected, last 2792
1029
ABC long position is rocking up, esp considering this awful spx red day
1028
1090 spx conintues to maintain authority... the NEXT try to pierce it higher could work....watching
1023
wow the ABC long recovered nicely....now is only dow 0.23% ... nervous ABC longs could exit here, i will stay long for now
1022
qqqq moving up a lil but i do NOT trust long yet,,,still no 4303 close on 15min
1020
abc 2781 stall expected...last 2780
1019
good... ABC made a marginal new high... trying to fill its gap...wathcing that one
1017
then use the 133t 1,2,3 min to time the entry
1016
a qqqq close over 4403 candle 15min would likely give a daytrade long qqqq but i won't take it ... not sure that it will give the setup on 4403 but it looks likely
1014
spx 1090 R is holding auth so far... some pops over it are allowed but inability to get 1103 would be very bearish
1012
the BERKSHIRE short newly entered yesterday is down nice, on track.. yea i know many wouldn't short warren buffet
1010
ok there was the 1090 down to 1088 b4 over 1090,,, still no scalp long signal
1009
the ABC long is recovering nicely and doing ok during this onslaught in spx. i might close the abc today for small profit or small loss, depending on charts
1007
i thnk spx will move down to 1088 before over 1090....last 1090
1006
i do not even have a scalp long setup on qqqq (smallest setup: scalp, daytrade, swing, position)
1000
lets see if spx 1092 holds its authority, with a max high today of 1094 / 1101
957
STOP 2743 on ABC long.... its down 0.81%
955
last night... i called for a close today under 1092 spx....lets see if we get it... if we do, very bearish, and more down in coming days even on a bounce up... the mid range spx down targets should get hit if the close comes
946
i could have gotten a better price on csco but just wanted out of it...took the profits a bit early... csco was showing "relative" strength so i abandon
938
took CSCO profits....all gone at 23.97
936
vix up 9.8% :)
935
wow qqqq taget 4388 and bounced...one penny from target
933
the QQQQ calls i wrote yest are up 30% profit today ... took a few profits, holding most for much better profits
929
right now, i see no recovery high. that might change, but since 2/19 i've said 2/19 is the high for now b4 we break the prior low... that analysis still valid IMHO
901
qqqq' targets similar to yesterday's... premarket this morn i see the q's hit the 4423 target from yesterday,,,
8:58 AM
my sds targets 35.63 3578 3621 3657 3711 3787 3798 3823 3847 3863 3897 3935 in coming hours days
Wedn 11:14 PM
Summary
I remain bearish the QQQQ (and spx) despite today's move up.
Minor details
This up down up down sideways action is typical of topping patterns. We still have the bear eve star from yest, rsi is down, volume on green days remains lower than red days. Further the QQQQ failed to re-test the last minor high today, not making it up. This morning I called that the QQQQ would not make it over .73,,,, they did make it higher but not much. So the QQQQ continue on the roadmap I put out last week pretty well thus far.
Bullish warnings
There are some bullish signs also, so a move up cannot be ruled out. I just remain bearishly biased until more bullish action presents itself. The Money Flow and other breadth indicators are still bullish.
Sideways
The QQQQ are stuck between the 20 and 50 MA, bouncing around there, which is creating this sideways action. But yest I mentioned sideways as likely, based partly on the ADX DMI. Mid-day today I mentioned that ADX still said sideways, and it is starting to move bearishly but nothing conclusive there. The 10 min QQQQ does show lower highs...
The QQQQ need a close BELOW yesterdays low to be bearish. If they can close over yest HIGH that would start to move things bullishly.
Recent swing "duds"
The past few days I did enter and exit a few swings with minor profits. This is due to the sideways action. The premise for the trade weakened (was still valid but weaker) so I decided to abandon these and re-invest elsewhere. It's frustrating to close trades at 1/2 % profit, but better than a loss, or holding it for 2 weeks waiting for some movement.
TBT took a loss yesterday. VXX is red now.
Other successful trades
But we've had some nice gains lately too, as posted in posts below. Today took 2% a few times on daytrading TYP,,,, yesterday took 20% and 80% profits on qqqq options
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
wednesday ramblings (and tues night futures)
400
well that was wrong... csco closed over 2431 at 2434.. thought would close under it
353
poss bear convoluted QQQQ daily HS type pattern
351
hit that .61.... idk if they can hold it down here... they "should" but had good vollume on te .61.... the .61 target hit precisely
346
i think csco will close under 2431... last 2435
345
grrr the ABC long is gettin smacked a little here... down to 2788 from 2800
342
think they will sell
into the close
341
ok no damage done for shorts qqqq....yet....this is ok to me ...for swings
340
one push more to 4461 is allowed BUT cannot sustain, and will be bearish close to me
336
ok heres 4455 near 57.... see if it holds down here... this was expected up... right on time
325
failure to headfake the qqqq to .57 by 3:43 would be weak, bearish,
322
even if qqqq close here at 4450 i'm still bearish on them//// they close near highs might turn bull
318
qqqq should break under 4442 for 4433 next
310
qqqq might get a spike up shoot start headfake to 4459 then down...
308
ABC long is doing ok....going up as mkt goes down
307
2424 csco target down last 2433
305
MM are holding it up here and selling into this, i think,... after they are done
shorting it will drop
303
4433 trgt qqqq
302
selling now...heavier....
300
sell program likely to hit in minutes seconds
258
they r dropping the bid and asks... possible sell program to hit soon
257
qqqqq scalper stop 4457, daytrade would be wider
255
qqqq charts say lower...at least one more 10 cent push
250
on more volume push down is needed on q's... that should give the second target... tho my targets have been off by about 3 cents today... so needing to sell / cover manually
247
good...turning so far
down from 4455.....
246
ok qqqq hit 4455....best thing would be to turn down here
242
1.5%....close enuf
to 4444 is why i sold
242
selling som typ daytrade 943 cost sell 958
241
if qqqq under 4455 is very bearish in next 8 minutes
240
4 cents from qqq target #1
239
1102 spx support testing now
238
qqqq targets downside are same now as 3 hours ago lol
235
and there go the qqqq in a quick 10 cent drop in seconds
234
sell signals here.. MM selling
232
volume picking up on qqqq... see what happens
216
1.1 million $ of berkshire just sold red
212
on qqqq 60min...notice that the candles are consolodating UNDER THE HIGH not over it... a type of inside day bearish
207
the csco short is getting monotonous, might close this today at mimial profit and re-invest these funds.... too much work monitoring something thats not moving
205
qqqqq targets down still are 4444 and 4433. last 4467
201
MF on stock ABC: Higher hi but prices lower high, on daily
150
qqqq slammed into the DTL daily R line and backed down... see if they can recover... still bearish on qqqq
147
long in ABC fell from 28 to 2789
146
bershire hathaway shares continue to deteriorate...good for short position there
141
yes. thus far we have 2 bear shooting stars i was looking for earlier today,,, on 15min 10min charts
138
the adx dmi is suggesting that the rally up today is weakening and not sustainable over coming days... this is a diff reading
than 2 hrs ago on adx which was inconclusive
135
if VIX hits 21% would be bearish intraday... last 20.46%.. VIX has held support thus far today
129
gettting that 15min shoot star bearish...qqqq need 15min candle close over 4482
126
the ABC long trade premise still holds on that position.... last 27.99
125
qqqq not sustaining over 4473 yet,,,,
122
VIX has dropped today but still over its support
121
qqqqq 2min 1min shoot stars as expected....very interesting action...needs to sustain not just pop....
119
watching for poss shooting stars in the 3min 10min charts
118
ok 4473 qqqq... see if they can sustain over this
1256
yes berkshire falling as expected :)
1251
taking a 25% position SHORTING berkshire hathaway shares
1246
in coming hours / days, i'm looking to SHORT the Berkshire Hathaway... prob not today
1235
csco could pop over 2446 but its showing exhaustion signs.... looking for lower...last 2437
1232
thus far, qqqq unable to claw back up into its 3min upchannel.... still below the channel support line
1228
ABCcontinues to press upwards :) .. been in and out of ABC long since july when it broke over 19... look at that steady move up... idk how long it will last but riding it up as long as it lasts...there are signs that a turn down is ahead though... but still riding up until it fails
1224
i dont think qqqq will retest its highs while it remains under 4473...last 4469
1220
the qqqq broken UTL riest is at 4471, close to that 4473... see if it holds under or breaks back up into the up channel 3 min... right now, i see this as a broken 3min upchannel, and this is backtesting it
1217
if ABC hits 2806 should give 2821 then stall...last 2801
1213
ABC amerisourcebergen inc looks ready to breakout over the 28.00
1212
csco needs a 10min close under 2428.... last 2433
1200
3 min chart qqqq declined from the 4480 to 4457 and formed a rectangel which i project to break downside, give other indicators
1157
if qqqq turn down trgts are 4441 and 4433...chart pattern suggests 4433
1151
nothing conclusive in adx dmi analysis of 60min and daily qqqq
1148
in 60 minutethe qqqq rsi did go over my preferred max of 53 and hit to 57 but still bearish qqqq for now... looking for it to turn down
1147
BACK at 4457 again....lol..held here grr... still think it will break
1144
qqqq 10min chart has a DTL... qqqq popped OVER it but are now back under that DTL resistance... so we have declining R with the QQQQ under R for now
1143
qqqq have formed a 3min up channel and are now straddling the UTL support line... watching to see if that breaks lower
1138
cmon qqqq break that 4457... my work still says it will
1131
UNDER 4473 i'm bearish qqqqq intraday
1127
3min qqqq bear harami forming here
1124
qqqq 4441 target down..think we will test that... last 4461
1121
ok the qqqq bounced to 4464 as expectede...still short....now looking to break the 4458.. last 4463
1120
qqqq hit 4459 or 2 cents from the 4457 trgt... could bounce up here... last 4458
1118
lol.. i just keep shorting into the rallies.... been working... one of them will be the "big one" drop, i think... from SWING perspect
1117
qqqq 10min bear diverg
1116
if qqqqq breaks 4466 then should see that 4457 trgt
1116
qqqq...poss bear HS forming in the 10min...only half baked
1111
qqqq should revisit 4455ish...see how it react there if it gets there...last 4469
1110
qqqq need to break 4466...loast 4467
1108
i'm still bearish lol.... qqq only marginally violated my 4473 max R,,,,for now....
1101
qqqq 4466 is micro support now...see if holds or breaks
1053
comp might want 2247 last 2240
1051
qqqq might want 4488....thought 4473 would contain it... was wrong... last 4475... nonetheless i remain short
1049
back i typ 943...buying bak the shares... agressive not for faint of heart... have profits to play with for day
1047
qqqqq exactly hit the 4473 R from 945 AM.... lets see if it contains it... i thought it wouldnt get over 4473 but there is volume here.....
1045
TYP daytrade stop set to breakeven on remaining shares grr... thats why took some profits at 2% .. welll i'll hold 25% of TYP daytrade with a lower stop
1038
4456 q is the 2nd r after 4747
1035
qqqq at 4447 near the 4448 R.... if that breaks could make a run to test HOD...still bearish on qs
1033
csco 60min has a beautiful bear harami candle pattern. a 2418 stall in the csco is ok for shorts
1026
still thnk qqqq stall 4448 max...last 4444
1023
i sold some when qqqq hit the trgt.... locked 2.1%
1022
scalpers in TYP would take 2% profit now, on at least a piece of their trade
1021
4423 qqqq should stall...next trgt down.... last 4433
1020
qqqq 4436 target hit....could bounce a lil here to 4448
1012
qqqq 3min poss form bear HS but dont think it wil fully form b4 dropping to 4436
1011
qqqq new minor R is 4455 now
1010
qqqq 4436 next then stall bounce a few cents
1009
yes. qqqq backing downn.... following the roadmap perfect for now
1007
there it is....4444 to 4450...think it will turn bak down soon
1006
qqqq should bounce here 4444 to 4448 then down
1003
qqqq calls hit .62 near the .63 target.. those r hard to estimate
1000
my swing type is red down 4.8% right now but its volatile and could easily go green
957
i have a short qqqq daytrade setup for aggressive trades... 82% confid... qqqq at 4462
953
shorting the qqqq here 4460... will add 4473 more shorts
950
hmm interesting...my software says they are selling into this upmove
947
qqqq resist at 4460 4473... don't think it sill make over 4473
938
see if qqqq can get over 4460 R.... last 4451
933
sold some calls at .57 on qqqq march 45
914
if qqqq > 44.40
913
I will likely sell QQQQ 45 calls at the open or close to it....
10:55 PM
Update from yesterday:
Yesterday (Monday) I called for 2 things to happen on Tuesday today: (1) a bearish mMm pattern would occur today (we had the mM and was expecting the 3rd m) and (2) a bearish 3 day candle pattern evening star. We got both. This is bearish. Again, in the coming days (maybe tomorrow) I'm looking for a close BENEATH today's low.
10:03 PM
For Wednesday:
IF the SPX CLOSES Wednesday lower than tuesday's low, then I'd expect a 20-30 point drop in the coming days (could gyrate up and down of course).... more precise targets to follow....
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
well that was wrong... csco closed over 2431 at 2434.. thought would close under it
353
poss bear convoluted QQQQ daily HS type pattern
351
hit that .61.... idk if they can hold it down here... they "should" but had good vollume on te .61.... the .61 target hit precisely
346
i think csco will close under 2431... last 2435
345
grrr the ABC long is gettin smacked a little here... down to 2788 from 2800
342
think they will sell
into the close
341
ok no damage done for shorts qqqq....yet....this is ok to me ...for swings
340
one push more to 4461 is allowed BUT cannot sustain, and will be bearish close to me
336
ok heres 4455 near 57.... see if it holds down here... this was expected up... right on time
325
failure to headfake the qqqq to .57 by 3:43 would be weak, bearish,
322
even if qqqq close here at 4450 i'm still bearish on them//// they close near highs might turn bull
318
qqqq should break under 4442 for 4433 next
310
qqqq might get a spike up shoot start headfake to 4459 then down...
308
ABC long is doing ok....going up as mkt goes down
307
2424 csco target down last 2433
305
MM are holding it up here and selling into this, i think,... after they are done
shorting it will drop
303
4433 trgt qqqq
302
selling now...heavier....
300
sell program likely to hit in minutes seconds
258
they r dropping the bid and asks... possible sell program to hit soon
257
qqqqq scalper stop 4457, daytrade would be wider
255
qqqq charts say lower...at least one more 10 cent push
250
on more volume push down is needed on q's... that should give the second target... tho my targets have been off by about 3 cents today... so needing to sell / cover manually
247
good...turning so far
down from 4455.....
246
ok qqqq hit 4455....best thing would be to turn down here
242
1.5%....close enuf
to 4444 is why i sold
242
selling som typ daytrade 943 cost sell 958
241
if qqqq under 4455 is very bearish in next 8 minutes
240
4 cents from qqq target #1
239
1102 spx support testing now
238
qqqq targets downside are same now as 3 hours ago lol
235
and there go the qqqq in a quick 10 cent drop in seconds
234
sell signals here.. MM selling
232
volume picking up on qqqq... see what happens
216
1.1 million $ of berkshire just sold red
212
on qqqq 60min...notice that the candles are consolodating UNDER THE HIGH not over it... a type of inside day bearish
207
the csco short is getting monotonous, might close this today at mimial profit and re-invest these funds.... too much work monitoring something thats not moving
205
qqqqq targets down still are 4444 and 4433. last 4467
201
MF on stock ABC: Higher hi but prices lower high, on daily
150
qqqq slammed into the DTL daily R line and backed down... see if they can recover... still bearish on qqqq
147
long in ABC fell from 28 to 2789
146
bershire hathaway shares continue to deteriorate...good for short position there
141
yes. thus far we have 2 bear shooting stars i was looking for earlier today,,, on 15min 10min charts
138
the adx dmi is suggesting that the rally up today is weakening and not sustainable over coming days... this is a diff reading
than 2 hrs ago on adx which was inconclusive
135
if VIX hits 21% would be bearish intraday... last 20.46%.. VIX has held support thus far today
129
gettting that 15min shoot star bearish...qqqq need 15min candle close over 4482
126
the ABC long trade premise still holds on that position.... last 27.99
125
qqqq not sustaining over 4473 yet,,,,
122
VIX has dropped today but still over its support
121
qqqqq 2min 1min shoot stars as expected....very interesting action...needs to sustain not just pop....
119
watching for poss shooting stars in the 3min 10min charts
118
ok 4473 qqqq... see if they can sustain over this
1256
yes berkshire falling as expected :)
1251
taking a 25% position SHORTING berkshire hathaway shares
1246
in coming hours / days, i'm looking to SHORT the Berkshire Hathaway... prob not today
1235
csco could pop over 2446 but its showing exhaustion signs.... looking for lower...last 2437
1232
thus far, qqqq unable to claw back up into its 3min upchannel.... still below the channel support line
1228
ABCcontinues to press upwards :) .. been in and out of ABC long since july when it broke over 19... look at that steady move up... idk how long it will last but riding it up as long as it lasts...there are signs that a turn down is ahead though... but still riding up until it fails
1224
i dont think qqqq will retest its highs while it remains under 4473...last 4469
1220
the qqqq broken UTL riest is at 4471, close to that 4473... see if it holds under or breaks back up into the up channel 3 min... right now, i see this as a broken 3min upchannel, and this is backtesting it
1217
if ABC hits 2806 should give 2821 then stall...last 2801
1213
ABC amerisourcebergen inc looks ready to breakout over the 28.00
1212
csco needs a 10min close under 2428.... last 2433
1200
3 min chart qqqq declined from the 4480 to 4457 and formed a rectangel which i project to break downside, give other indicators
1157
if qqqq turn down trgts are 4441 and 4433...chart pattern suggests 4433
1151
nothing conclusive in adx dmi analysis of 60min and daily qqqq
1148
in 60 minutethe qqqq rsi did go over my preferred max of 53 and hit to 57 but still bearish qqqq for now... looking for it to turn down
1147
BACK at 4457 again....lol..held here grr... still think it will break
1144
qqqq 10min chart has a DTL... qqqq popped OVER it but are now back under that DTL resistance... so we have declining R with the QQQQ under R for now
1143
qqqq have formed a 3min up channel and are now straddling the UTL support line... watching to see if that breaks lower
1138
cmon qqqq break that 4457... my work still says it will
1131
UNDER 4473 i'm bearish qqqqq intraday
1127
3min qqqq bear harami forming here
1124
qqqq 4441 target down..think we will test that... last 4461
1121
ok the qqqq bounced to 4464 as expectede...still short....now looking to break the 4458.. last 4463
1120
qqqq hit 4459 or 2 cents from the 4457 trgt... could bounce up here... last 4458
1118
lol.. i just keep shorting into the rallies.... been working... one of them will be the "big one" drop, i think... from SWING perspect
1117
qqqq 10min bear diverg
1116
if qqqqq breaks 4466 then should see that 4457 trgt
1116
qqqq...poss bear HS forming in the 10min...only half baked
1111
qqqq should revisit 4455ish...see how it react there if it gets there...last 4469
1110
qqqq need to break 4466...loast 4467
1108
i'm still bearish lol.... qqq only marginally violated my 4473 max R,,,,for now....
1101
qqqq 4466 is micro support now...see if holds or breaks
1053
comp might want 2247 last 2240
1051
qqqq might want 4488....thought 4473 would contain it... was wrong... last 4475... nonetheless i remain short
1049
back i typ 943...buying bak the shares... agressive not for faint of heart... have profits to play with for day
1047
qqqqq exactly hit the 4473 R from 945 AM.... lets see if it contains it... i thought it wouldnt get over 4473 but there is volume here.....
1045
TYP daytrade stop set to breakeven on remaining shares grr... thats why took some profits at 2% .. welll i'll hold 25% of TYP daytrade with a lower stop
1038
4456 q is the 2nd r after 4747
1035
qqqq at 4447 near the 4448 R.... if that breaks could make a run to test HOD...still bearish on qs
1033
csco 60min has a beautiful bear harami candle pattern. a 2418 stall in the csco is ok for shorts
1026
still thnk qqqq stall 4448 max...last 4444
1023
i sold some when qqqq hit the trgt.... locked 2.1%
1022
scalpers in TYP would take 2% profit now, on at least a piece of their trade
1021
4423 qqqq should stall...next trgt down.... last 4433
1020
qqqq 4436 target hit....could bounce a lil here to 4448
1012
qqqq 3min poss form bear HS but dont think it wil fully form b4 dropping to 4436
1011
qqqq new minor R is 4455 now
1010
qqqq 4436 next then stall bounce a few cents
1009
yes. qqqq backing downn.... following the roadmap perfect for now
1007
there it is....4444 to 4450...think it will turn bak down soon
1006
qqqq should bounce here 4444 to 4448 then down
1003
qqqq calls hit .62 near the .63 target.. those r hard to estimate
1000
my swing type is red down 4.8% right now but its volatile and could easily go green
957
i have a short qqqq daytrade setup for aggressive trades... 82% confid... qqqq at 4462
953
shorting the qqqq here 4460... will add 4473 more shorts
950
hmm interesting...my software says they are selling into this upmove
947
qqqq resist at 4460 4473... don't think it sill make over 4473
938
see if qqqq can get over 4460 R.... last 4451
933
sold some calls at .57 on qqqq march 45
914
if qqqq > 44.40
913
I will likely sell QQQQ 45 calls at the open or close to it....
10:55 PM
Update from yesterday:
Yesterday (Monday) I called for 2 things to happen on Tuesday today: (1) a bearish mMm pattern would occur today (we had the mM and was expecting the 3rd m) and (2) a bearish 3 day candle pattern evening star. We got both. This is bearish. Again, in the coming days (maybe tomorrow) I'm looking for a close BENEATH today's low.
10:03 PM
For Wednesday:
IF the SPX CLOSES Wednesday lower than tuesday's low, then I'd expect a 20-30 point drop in the coming days (could gyrate up and down of course).... more precise targets to follow....
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
tuesday ramblings (and Mon nite futures)
405
i still see more down in qqqq... no tech damage done
356
etfguy ur inv HS still valid, barely. could be a bear flag that is just starting to break down too tho
336
the qqqq charts continue to suggest more downside in the coming hours days
328
MF and acc/dist continue to not be bearish thoa
327
the daily DMI suggests some possible chop first, a bear cross is forming but the ADX line is not in the right place....could chop
326
if that adx moves over 30 with the DI neg still the trend, it will push the qs to new lows in coming hours days
325
the DMI directional on the 60min qqqq is very bearish.. the adx bottomed and is rising, and the DI neg is identified as the trend.....
318
tbt 2 scenarios... chop around in a rectangle near 48.00 then pivot back up, OR drop to 47.... i remain on the sidelines in the tbt.... i think it will chop around near the 48.00 but not clear enough for me to buy it
314
that up down up pattern in the qqqq i mentioned b4 is still valid.... expecting lower qs
310
82 % confid crouching tiger bull in the TYP now
309
adding some typ here at 979... lookin to add more lower if able... already have existing typ...this is additional
259
wow glad to be out of that tbt for now...last 4837,, near support but i'm not not buying on this chart
249
csco looks in trouble.... good for shorts
248
qqqq need to get over that .21.... was rejected just now with a nasty 2min gravestone doji... course it could hurdle higher since 2min signals r wea
242
q back near that .21 .....4418 last... see if .21 or .30ish hold
236
lowering typ stop a lil ...give some room...small risk
234
i still see a lower lo in qqq today
233
typ daytradde stop moved to breakeven now for a free ride up
232
qqqq should bounce arond 4407 else they r weak
228
in the TYP 983 with tite stop,,978 stop, risk a small amt, for large potential reward
227
trading in my spxu for typ daytrade...like the typ more... took minor profit in the spxu
224
ah watching for the qqqq to now form a 3min bear HS.... half done
222
the qqqq came 2 cents from the first R mentioned b4 and backed down... still thinking down after the move up
219
i might buy more typ today, unsure, not yet
212
i'm not surprised at the move up,,,expected this... still think lower low
211
see if q can get over that old .21ish .30ish mini R from this morn
205
qqqq have that up a lil, down hardder, bounce up pattern now
157
vix climming...last 2181 from 2160
154
if qqqq manages to close with a candle like this, prob will gap up tomorrow (well open above todays close not really gap) and then make a lower low
if qqqq can get a bigger red candle, then different opening for tomorrow....
152
qqqqq vol picking up some here
150
wow the CSCO 15min stoch moves up with no upward price movement... if it hits 80 then turns down csco could fall hard
148
LOL glad to be out of that TSN...what a DUD that was...no gain no loss,,,, asleep
146
VIX>.......breaking out as expected
135
watching for a crouching tiger bullish setup... forming but incomplete now, for VIX
128
csco looks like its moving up but it has unfinished biz on the downside in coming hours days i thikn
121
3 cents from stopout on orcl....
119
there are 3 min bull HS forming though,,,,why i tightened up stop on the orcl
119
NOw the qqqq have Resist 4417 b4 the 4430 (estimated R)
115
the VIX... sorry to sound like a broken record...but its suggesting another breakout today for lower spx
112
spx might not see over 1098 b4 1087
110
shorter term swing traders could take some csco profits here at 1.8%
107
csco i will hold swing
106
there are better ops me thinks than orcale.. so i'll take the gift on the move down today on orcl
105
ok i'll take profits / exit the orcl at stop 24.48 very tite last 2442.. better stop would be 2453 but i'll keep the 2448 for now
103
i might exit this orcl today... its bearish but i dont like the MF and volume on it for a short
1254
2250ish target on
VIX today on break over 2165
1252
intraday its all
about vix...its at daily R
now...breakout and spx will hit the targets lower
1247
watching for VIX to break HOD>..looks like it will...testing now
1245
vix close to that new HOD i suggested 20mins ago
1243
the spxu is likely a daytrade (rare for me these days) ,,, in from 3701
1235
4273 is midterm target for my qqqq short, typ long
1231
taking 210% profits on a piece of the qqqq calls i wrote here.... again saving 25% for call to expire worthless and keep whole premium
1227
7 cents from qqqq target :D
1225
see if it stalls or blows past the 4387...should stall
1222
a momentum trade on a break and 5min close under 1093 spx could work with a 2-5 point stop if it gets there .. i might try that, not sure
1221
if spx breaks 1093 we could see fireworks and a 10 point drop... last 1095.49
1219
i'm not sure tbt will be ready for re-entry in the next week....this wrecked my chart.... expected one more pop up b4 this red candle, didnt get
1206
might see that 4387ish qqqq target hit today
1205
qqqq made a margninal new low of day...watching to see reaction here
1203
a csco close today under 2406 would confirm the eve star that i suggested yest might form today
1149
thus far qqqq cannot even get over the minor R mentioned b4....
1148
'orcl headed for 2444 test...if that breaks should see a drop to 2430
1146
csco 15min bear flag... very bearish under 2410, last 2398
1144
tbt is headed to retest its low... why i exited and took the loss b4 that happened
1139
nervous ORCL shorts could exit here breakeven, i'm staying short (I entered a bit early, and did not add to position or avg down the cost) .. instead i shorted CSCO and added that
1128
my scanner is running now for "re-enter or add to shorts"... cannot find a single stock that meets my criteria
1116
taking some more profits on the qqqq calls (sold short, wrote)... 82% profit ....
1109
TBT i am raising stop to 48.97 and will take 1.5% loss if hit. i can always re-entr later. tight sstop. last 4802
1107
qqqq have unfinished biz on the downside as i see it. so does csco. csco last 2396 qqqq last 4422
1104
the tbt is my "semi-long" hedge... not tech long but often moves with mkt... tho i see higher tbt in 2010 and lower spx apart from the squiggles
1043
closing TSN for breakeven... its not moving, so im out.... just another thing i don't have to watch monitor now
1036
prices continue to act as expected thus far in qqqq spx (green profit)... tbt was an early re-entry yesterday (red loss), will need to manage that one
1012
only problem with WRITING calls is your gain is limited to 100% (double)
1011
taking 46% profit on some of that qqqq calls i wrote here
1003
my swing first target short down qqqq is 4387 last 4451
1001
qqqq didnt even
make the 4486 target up at least not
yet...very bearish
953
watching qqqq reactino at 4487 ... if it does NOT stall there and breaks up it would be bullish else bearish, to me
941
csco setting up for bearish 3 day eve star reversal
936
a 15 or 60min close under 4447 for qqqq would be bearish intraday. last 4466
9:18
I remain bearish the qqqq.
simplified view qqqq: rsi 60min close over 62 bullish, close under 50 bearish, remains bearish while under 62 since slope is down. of course, this is a simplified view, more accurate forecasts come by combining other indicators along with price and chart pictures patterns
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
i still see more down in qqqq... no tech damage done
356
etfguy ur inv HS still valid, barely. could be a bear flag that is just starting to break down too tho
336
the qqqq charts continue to suggest more downside in the coming hours days
328
MF and acc/dist continue to not be bearish thoa
327
the daily DMI suggests some possible chop first, a bear cross is forming but the ADX line is not in the right place....could chop
326
if that adx moves over 30 with the DI neg still the trend, it will push the qs to new lows in coming hours days
325
the DMI directional on the 60min qqqq is very bearish.. the adx bottomed and is rising, and the DI neg is identified as the trend.....
318
tbt 2 scenarios... chop around in a rectangle near 48.00 then pivot back up, OR drop to 47.... i remain on the sidelines in the tbt.... i think it will chop around near the 48.00 but not clear enough for me to buy it
314
that up down up pattern in the qqqq i mentioned b4 is still valid.... expecting lower qs
310
82 % confid crouching tiger bull in the TYP now
309
adding some typ here at 979... lookin to add more lower if able... already have existing typ...this is additional
259
wow glad to be out of that tbt for now...last 4837,, near support but i'm not not buying on this chart
249
csco looks in trouble.... good for shorts
248
qqqq need to get over that .21.... was rejected just now with a nasty 2min gravestone doji... course it could hurdle higher since 2min signals r wea
242
q back near that .21 .....4418 last... see if .21 or .30ish hold
236
lowering typ stop a lil ...give some room...small risk
234
i still see a lower lo in qqq today
233
typ daytradde stop moved to breakeven now for a free ride up
232
qqqq should bounce arond 4407 else they r weak
228
in the TYP 983 with tite stop,,978 stop, risk a small amt, for large potential reward
227
trading in my spxu for typ daytrade...like the typ more... took minor profit in the spxu
224
ah watching for the qqqq to now form a 3min bear HS.... half done
222
the qqqq came 2 cents from the first R mentioned b4 and backed down... still thinking down after the move up
219
i might buy more typ today, unsure, not yet
212
i'm not surprised at the move up,,,expected this... still think lower low
211
see if q can get over that old .21ish .30ish mini R from this morn
205
qqqq have that up a lil, down hardder, bounce up pattern now
157
vix climming...last 2181 from 2160
154
if qqqq manages to close with a candle like this, prob will gap up tomorrow (well open above todays close not really gap) and then make a lower low
if qqqq can get a bigger red candle, then different opening for tomorrow....
152
qqqqq vol picking up some here
150
wow the CSCO 15min stoch moves up with no upward price movement... if it hits 80 then turns down csco could fall hard
148
LOL glad to be out of that TSN...what a DUD that was...no gain no loss,,,, asleep
146
VIX>.......breaking out as expected
135
watching for a crouching tiger bullish setup... forming but incomplete now, for VIX
128
csco looks like its moving up but it has unfinished biz on the downside in coming hours days i thikn
121
3 cents from stopout on orcl....
119
there are 3 min bull HS forming though,,,,why i tightened up stop on the orcl
119
NOw the qqqq have Resist 4417 b4 the 4430 (estimated R)
115
the VIX... sorry to sound like a broken record...but its suggesting another breakout today for lower spx
112
spx might not see over 1098 b4 1087
110
shorter term swing traders could take some csco profits here at 1.8%
107
csco i will hold swing
106
there are better ops me thinks than orcale.. so i'll take the gift on the move down today on orcl
105
ok i'll take profits / exit the orcl at stop 24.48 very tite last 2442.. better stop would be 2453 but i'll keep the 2448 for now
103
i might exit this orcl today... its bearish but i dont like the MF and volume on it for a short
1254
2250ish target on
VIX today on break over 2165
1252
intraday its all
about vix...its at daily R
now...breakout and spx will hit the targets lower
1247
watching for VIX to break HOD>..looks like it will...testing now
1245
vix close to that new HOD i suggested 20mins ago
1243
the spxu is likely a daytrade (rare for me these days) ,,, in from 3701
1235
4273 is midterm target for my qqqq short, typ long
1231
taking 210% profits on a piece of the qqqq calls i wrote here.... again saving 25% for call to expire worthless and keep whole premium
1227
7 cents from qqqq target :D
1225
see if it stalls or blows past the 4387...should stall
1222
a momentum trade on a break and 5min close under 1093 spx could work with a 2-5 point stop if it gets there .. i might try that, not sure
1221
if spx breaks 1093 we could see fireworks and a 10 point drop... last 1095.49
1219
i'm not sure tbt will be ready for re-entry in the next week....this wrecked my chart.... expected one more pop up b4 this red candle, didnt get
1206
might see that 4387ish qqqq target hit today
1205
qqqq made a margninal new low of day...watching to see reaction here
1203
a csco close today under 2406 would confirm the eve star that i suggested yest might form today
1149
thus far qqqq cannot even get over the minor R mentioned b4....
1148
'orcl headed for 2444 test...if that breaks should see a drop to 2430
1146
csco 15min bear flag... very bearish under 2410, last 2398
1144
tbt is headed to retest its low... why i exited and took the loss b4 that happened
1139
nervous ORCL shorts could exit here breakeven, i'm staying short (I entered a bit early, and did not add to position or avg down the cost) .. instead i shorted CSCO and added that
1128
my scanner is running now for "re-enter or add to shorts"... cannot find a single stock that meets my criteria
1116
taking some more profits on the qqqq calls (sold short, wrote)... 82% profit ....
1109
TBT i am raising stop to 48.97 and will take 1.5% loss if hit. i can always re-entr later. tight sstop. last 4802
1107
qqqq have unfinished biz on the downside as i see it. so does csco. csco last 2396 qqqq last 4422
1104
the tbt is my "semi-long" hedge... not tech long but often moves with mkt... tho i see higher tbt in 2010 and lower spx apart from the squiggles
1043
closing TSN for breakeven... its not moving, so im out.... just another thing i don't have to watch monitor now
1036
prices continue to act as expected thus far in qqqq spx (green profit)... tbt was an early re-entry yesterday (red loss), will need to manage that one
1012
only problem with WRITING calls is your gain is limited to 100% (double)
1011
taking 46% profit on some of that qqqq calls i wrote here
1003
my swing first target short down qqqq is 4387 last 4451
1001
qqqq didnt even
make the 4486 target up at least not
yet...very bearish
953
watching qqqq reactino at 4487 ... if it does NOT stall there and breaks up it would be bullish else bearish, to me
941
csco setting up for bearish 3 day eve star reversal
936
a 15 or 60min close under 4447 for qqqq would be bearish intraday. last 4466
9:18
I remain bearish the qqqq.
simplified view qqqq: rsi 60min close over 62 bullish, close under 50 bearish, remains bearish while under 62 since slope is down. of course, this is a simplified view, more accurate forecasts come by combining other indicators along with price and chart pictures patterns
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
A ONCE A YEAR bearish event, happening now
I have many bearish indicators going on right now. From a longer term perspective, look at the chart below.
We are experiencing right now a ONCE A YEAR event that marks an excellent opportunity for swing and multi-month position trades.
The chart below is the more powerful WEEKLY chart of QQQQ. Charts for SPX DOW are similar.
The most salient thing about the chart is the MACD. Notice that I've numbered 1,2,3,4,5,6. Last week, we experienced an UPTICK on the MACD histogram. Is that bullish? Well, notice that the NORMAL PATTERN when the MACD hist falls below zero is a small valley that goes down, then up. But notice also that THE LARGER VALLEY normally follows. I believe this is what we are experiencing here. Notice that 2 <1, 4<3, and 6<5???
This is one reason, among many, that I believe that the DOW will not make it over 10,754 in 2010, that the DOW high for the year is in (DOW charts are similar).
Also notice the following (bearish):
1. Bearish RSI dbl top on 9/14 and 1/11 with RSI bear failure swing below the 58 RSI (It's previous low).
Bullish warnings on the chart:
3.) Stoch hooking back up... does it want to re-visit 80? If so, then we would likely see a double top or even a higher high for the year.
4. The RSI has a failure swing (bearish) but it remains over 50 and it is trying to hook back up.
However, for 3 and 4, remember that this is a weekly chart, and it's Monday, so this could all change by end of this week.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
We are experiencing right now a ONCE A YEAR event that marks an excellent opportunity for swing and multi-month position trades.
The chart below is the more powerful WEEKLY chart of QQQQ. Charts for SPX DOW are similar.
The most salient thing about the chart is the MACD. Notice that I've numbered 1,2,3,4,5,6. Last week, we experienced an UPTICK on the MACD histogram. Is that bullish? Well, notice that the NORMAL PATTERN when the MACD hist falls below zero is a small valley that goes down, then up. But notice also that THE LARGER VALLEY normally follows. I believe this is what we are experiencing here. Notice that 2 <1, 4<3, and 6<5???
This is one reason, among many, that I believe that the DOW will not make it over 10,754 in 2010, that the DOW high for the year is in (DOW charts are similar).
Also notice the following (bearish):
1. Bearish RSI dbl top on 9/14 and 1/11 with RSI bear failure swing below the 58 RSI (It's previous low).
2. Bearish RSI divergence on 9/14 and 1/11. Note that prices rocketed while the RSI only double topped..
Bullish warnings on the chart:
3.) Stoch hooking back up... does it want to re-visit 80? If so, then we would likely see a double top or even a higher high for the year.
4. The RSI has a failure swing (bearish) but it remains over 50 and it is trying to hook back up.
However, for 3 and 4, remember that this is a weekly chart, and it's Monday, so this could all change by end of this week.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Monday, February 22, 2010
Possible new long and short positions for Tuesday
These are ideas only right now, I will be looking at these opps during the day.
SHORT
BZH
KFT
LCC
NYX
PAAS
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
SHORT
BZH
KFT
LCC
NYX
PAAS
LONG
AMGN (does not look ready yet)'
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Swing positions, quick charts CSCO
CSCO short looks good. Declining RSI and STOCH, bear diverg. 60min chart below.
Below is the daily. Bear wedge does have room to go higher, but decreasing vol, bearish MACD, bearish RSI. The daily candle is also bearish and the last 3 days have made MARGINAL small new highs.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Below is the daily. Bear wedge does have room to go higher, but decreasing vol, bearish MACD, bearish RSI. The daily candle is also bearish and the last 3 days have made MARGINAL small new highs.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Monday ramblings (and Sunday night futures)
1553
TBT may have some more downside, but i like this entry here .... it's been performing well weaving in and out of this tbt
1552
Going long TBT here at 4974
1549
SHORTING the TSN at 1662
1522
out of BIIB breakeven.,,,, will maybe re-enter later
1511
out of HAS....covered... minimal profit
1503
3554 stop HAS
1500
orcl is close to its UTL resistance here
1459
orcl hit the 2493 just over 2491 trgt...watching here
1455
biib stop 5583
1453
stop biib 5617 to cover...last 5564
1428
qqqq 60min could have dbl top or complex bear HS
1427
until it changes, i see a break of the 60min UTL, and a lower hi thus far.
1356
qqqq daily might have dbl topped at 4505 ... the qqqq broke under the 60min uptrend support line, so watching to see if it makes a lower high
1314
biib right at support now testing... seee if it breaks lower for the short
1312
poss dbl top bearish in the ORCL intraday top
1310
HAS trgt 3532 last 3548
1309
biib target is 5551...might cover there and re-enter on bounce...unsure
1308
BIIB and HAS shorts doing very well...csco in limbo asleep for now
1306
the trade premise for ORCL short still is valid, but it's an irritating day in the orcl..grr... ORCL might go for 24.91/25 before falling, but not sure, so i hesitate to exit/re-enter the trade
1202
testing the 3555 in hasrbro now
1201
HAS targets: 3532 if 3550 breaks
1141
taking 26% profit on some of my qqqq written calls here...at qqqq support...holding rest for much higher profit levels
1138
intraday, qqqq trgt 4439 then stall, 4464 last... expect under 4439 in coming days
1134
see if qqqq break under 4463 here and SUSTAIN under... charts suggest they will
1113
watchin to see if qqqq re-tests that 44.63/56 and if so, whethr it breaks or holds... last 4467
1112
has test 3566 impt support here now.... then 3537 trgt if broken... HAS is bearish today thus far but bullish daily...hasbro..i'm short
1104
the March 45 calls that I WROTE (sold) are up 20% here
1008
ORCL is pressing lower,,, marginally made new low of day here.. i'm short ORCL
1003
charts suggest the 4462 will be pierced and lower low will be made today...qqqq last 4465
1002
qqqq cracked that 4462 on the first try... uh oh unless it bounces up here.. 4557 last
1001
a csco bounce up here at 2421 would be ok for short pos.... first test
957
qqqq look bearish today
952
see if qqqq stalls and bounce up at 4462. last 4474. if it doesn't stall at 4462 it would be very bearish (yest low)
946
ORCL is forming a bull pennant 60min chart but other indicators are bearish. possible bear evening star 3 day pattern developig, today day 2 of 3. orcl would need a spinning top today for that pattern on day 2
944
shorts in BIIB HAS CSCO all trading properly. ORCL is acting up slightly, tho the trade premise for short still valid. vxx and typ doing ok
9:29
Looks like the SPX QQQQ will increase some here, as suggested possible. I still look for lower levels.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
TBT may have some more downside, but i like this entry here .... it's been performing well weaving in and out of this tbt
1552
Going long TBT here at 4974
1549
SHORTING the TSN at 1662
1522
out of BIIB breakeven.,,,, will maybe re-enter later
1511
out of HAS....covered... minimal profit
1503
3554 stop HAS
1500
orcl is close to its UTL resistance here
1459
orcl hit the 2493 just over 2491 trgt...watching here
1455
biib stop 5583
1453
stop biib 5617 to cover...last 5564
1428
qqqq 60min could have dbl top or complex bear HS
1427
until it changes, i see a break of the 60min UTL, and a lower hi thus far.
1356
qqqq daily might have dbl topped at 4505 ... the qqqq broke under the 60min uptrend support line, so watching to see if it makes a lower high
1314
biib right at support now testing... seee if it breaks lower for the short
1312
poss dbl top bearish in the ORCL intraday top
1310
HAS trgt 3532 last 3548
1309
biib target is 5551...might cover there and re-enter on bounce...unsure
1308
BIIB and HAS shorts doing very well...csco in limbo asleep for now
1306
the trade premise for ORCL short still is valid, but it's an irritating day in the orcl..grr... ORCL might go for 24.91/25 before falling, but not sure, so i hesitate to exit/re-enter the trade
1202
testing the 3555 in hasrbro now
1201
HAS targets: 3532 if 3550 breaks
1141
taking 26% profit on some of my qqqq written calls here...at qqqq support...holding rest for much higher profit levels
1138
intraday, qqqq trgt 4439 then stall, 4464 last... expect under 4439 in coming days
1134
see if qqqq break under 4463 here and SUSTAIN under... charts suggest they will
1113
watchin to see if qqqq re-tests that 44.63/56 and if so, whethr it breaks or holds... last 4467
1112
has test 3566 impt support here now.... then 3537 trgt if broken... HAS is bearish today thus far but bullish daily...hasbro..i'm short
1104
the March 45 calls that I WROTE (sold) are up 20% here
1008
ORCL is pressing lower,,, marginally made new low of day here.. i'm short ORCL
1003
charts suggest the 4462 will be pierced and lower low will be made today...qqqq last 4465
1002
qqqq cracked that 4462 on the first try... uh oh unless it bounces up here.. 4557 last
1001
a csco bounce up here at 2421 would be ok for short pos.... first test
957
qqqq look bearish today
952
see if qqqq stalls and bounce up at 4462. last 4474. if it doesn't stall at 4462 it would be very bearish (yest low)
946
ORCL is forming a bull pennant 60min chart but other indicators are bearish. possible bear evening star 3 day pattern developig, today day 2 of 3. orcl would need a spinning top today for that pattern on day 2
944
shorts in BIIB HAS CSCO all trading properly. ORCL is acting up slightly, tho the trade premise for short still valid. vxx and typ doing ok
9:29
Looks like the SPX QQQQ will increase some here, as suggested possible. I still look for lower levels.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Sunday, February 21, 2010
Looking for re-entry into TBT, short UAUA
Yes, I still like TBT long and UAUA short, and will be looking for re-entry there. Currently I have no swings in either. Do have a multi-week hold still on the TBT.
I've been weaving in and out of TBT for awhile now (swing) and have a longer term position trade in it (not weaving in and out) from around 47.50.
UAUA is a bit trickier than TBT. It's unclear whether UAUA is going to reverse hard or not, as mentioned in previous posts. That's why I am only using swings (not multi week / months positions) in UAUA for now. I did take profits in UAUA at around 2-2.5% on a 2 day swing, but only on 50% of my shares. I held the other 50% and got stopped out at breakeven, unfortunately. UAUA might be forming a massive bear Head Shoulders on the daily chart, but it could also continue in the uptrend. Again, UAUA gapped UP a few days ago with that big green bar, which is bullish until proven otherwise. So for now, I'm doing contra-trend trades in UAU, taking quick profits, in an effort to make some 2% profits but also be positioned "early" if UAUA makes a run down for $12 or $10 (last 15.33).
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
I've been weaving in and out of TBT for awhile now (swing) and have a longer term position trade in it (not weaving in and out) from around 47.50.
UAUA is a bit trickier than TBT. It's unclear whether UAUA is going to reverse hard or not, as mentioned in previous posts. That's why I am only using swings (not multi week / months positions) in UAUA for now. I did take profits in UAUA at around 2-2.5% on a 2 day swing, but only on 50% of my shares. I held the other 50% and got stopped out at breakeven, unfortunately. UAUA might be forming a massive bear Head Shoulders on the daily chart, but it could also continue in the uptrend. Again, UAUA gapped UP a few days ago with that big green bar, which is bullish until proven otherwise. So for now, I'm doing contra-trend trades in UAU, taking quick profits, in an effort to make some 2% profits but also be positioned "early" if UAUA makes a run down for $12 or $10 (last 15.33).
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
More on SPX pullback, and still believe DOW 10,754 is "it" for 2010
I will try to add some charts here later; right now I have about 15 charts, but none are suitable for display LOL (too confusing, messy).
SUMMARY
I took shorts on an EARLY entry setup last Thursday and Friday. Pullback to 1080/70 SPX. Could pop higher first but I am short now. Continue to believe that DOW will not exceed 10,753 in year 2010. I'm short SPX QQQQ ORCL CSCO HAS BIIB. Long VXX (expecting VIX to rise). Long TYP (which means I'm shorting tech).
DETAILS
My analysis continues to suggest a pullback to 1080/70ish and then 1038 (more precise targets later). Longer term, I see 916/950ish, even 667 perhaps (more precise targets later). Since March, I haven't been convinced that we will see 667 or lower, but I must say that it is now "more likely" to me now, then in April, July, or September. In November, December, it began to appear more likely.
A pop UP first before the decline to 1080 / 38 cannot be ruled out, but from a swing perspective i have an EARLY entry short setup. I've already positioned myself short on Friday as posted (short SPX QQQQ ORCL CSCO HAS BIIB). Long VXX (expecting VIX to rise). Long TYP (which means I'm shorting tech).
Because this is an early short setup / signal entry, a move up could happen but I've positioned myself short "early" in order to participate in case the move up does not happen. This could be similar to when I went long Feb 1 around 1075(my target was 1111) and the spx moved down to 1044 after I went long. Because this was an early entry long, prices declined further before they went up. I simply bought more at lower prices, but I closed that position when my 1111 target was hit on Friday.
True, the setup / signal is early (as of Friday 4:00 PM) but it could easily turn to "confirmed short entry" on Monday. We will wait and see what develops.
Last year, I called for the DOW to get to 10,753 and then decline. It came very close to that (it made 10,730).
I also stated that I believe that the DOW WILL NOT GET OVER 10,753 in 2010.
Right now, I still believe this. The next two weeks could change my viewpoint to thinking the DOW will go higher than 10,750 this year, but for now, I continue to see a slow dribble down all year.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
SUMMARY
I took shorts on an EARLY entry setup last Thursday and Friday. Pullback to 1080/70 SPX. Could pop higher first but I am short now. Continue to believe that DOW will not exceed 10,753 in year 2010. I'm short SPX QQQQ ORCL CSCO HAS BIIB. Long VXX (expecting VIX to rise). Long TYP (which means I'm shorting tech).
DETAILS
My analysis continues to suggest a pullback to 1080/70ish and then 1038 (more precise targets later). Longer term, I see 916/950ish, even 667 perhaps (more precise targets later). Since March, I haven't been convinced that we will see 667 or lower, but I must say that it is now "more likely" to me now, then in April, July, or September. In November, December, it began to appear more likely.
A pop UP first before the decline to 1080 / 38 cannot be ruled out, but from a swing perspective i have an EARLY entry short setup. I've already positioned myself short on Friday as posted (short SPX QQQQ ORCL CSCO HAS BIIB). Long VXX (expecting VIX to rise). Long TYP (which means I'm shorting tech).
Because this is an early short setup / signal entry, a move up could happen but I've positioned myself short "early" in order to participate in case the move up does not happen. This could be similar to when I went long Feb 1 around 1075(my target was 1111) and the spx moved down to 1044 after I went long. Because this was an early entry long, prices declined further before they went up. I simply bought more at lower prices, but I closed that position when my 1111 target was hit on Friday.
True, the setup / signal is early (as of Friday 4:00 PM) but it could easily turn to "confirmed short entry" on Monday. We will wait and see what develops.
Last year, I called for the DOW to get to 10,753 and then decline. It came very close to that (it made 10,730).
I also stated that I believe that the DOW WILL NOT GET OVER 10,753 in 2010.
Right now, I still believe this. The next two weeks could change my viewpoint to thinking the DOW will go higher than 10,750 this year, but for now, I continue to see a slow dribble down all year.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Saturday, February 20, 2010
SPX 1111 target suggested on Feb 3 achieved, pullback now
RE: SPX 1111 target suggested on Feb 3 achieved, pullback now
Well today the SPX achieved the 1111 target that I mentioned all the way back on Feb 3 and again on Feb 4. I'll do more analysis to confirm, but a pullback now seems to be coming in the coming days.
Many analysts were bearish on Feb 3 and Feb 4, calling for further downward moves without a break up first. But the 1111 was achieved. Now, it seems that we will head back down (though many might be very bullish now).
Need to confirm through more analysis, but something like down to 1030, up to 1103, down below 1030 to 923ish target.
Here are my previous postings (cut and pasted here, see actual posting in posts below this one).
feb 3
115
i still have 1111 target lol...being stubborn... charts still sguggest it to me
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Well today the SPX achieved the 1111 target that I mentioned all the way back on Feb 3 and again on Feb 4. I'll do more analysis to confirm, but a pullback now seems to be coming in the coming days.
Many analysts were bearish on Feb 3 and Feb 4, calling for further downward moves without a break up first. But the 1111 was achieved. Now, it seems that we will head back down (though many might be very bullish now).
Need to confirm through more analysis, but something like down to 1030, up to 1103, down below 1030 to 923ish target.
Here are my previous postings (cut and pasted here, see actual posting in posts below this one).
feb 3
115
i still have 1111 target lol...being stubborn... charts still sguggest it to me
Feb 4
247
1111 is still possible. charts still suggest this to me. they suggest a high over 1103... need to also watch for dbl bottom in the qqqq... watching both sides long n short
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Thursday, February 18, 2010
Friday ramblings (and Thurs eve / Friday pre-market ES Futures)
1542
out of rest of uaua at breakeven, took 2 - 2.5% profit on half of shares
1541
this looks head-fakish....es at 1108
1538
SHORTING csco 2428... will add more if gets higher ... swing
1532
if CSCO surges up.. i might short into the surge up...today..unsure.. last 2426
1525
plan: close uaua today swing,,, keep the shorts in biib has orcl, keep qqqq march puts, keep typ vxx and everything else
1524
es...1102 break would suggest 1098... maybe not happn here in opex
1522
es should see 1102.....it stalled bounce at 1105 not 1104 suggests 1102... i think lol
1519
BIIB should make it down to 5627 then maybe 5617... last 5652
1518
ok ORCL stalled exactly at the 2423 and is moving up... still ok for shorts, expected this
1517
i dont think the last move down was a headfake... see lower ahead
1515
orcl stall at 2421 would be ok for shorts...last 2423
1515
es 1104/02 trgt next
1514
that ES daytrade
signal 1108 worked nice... last 1105
1513
since jan 25,,,, i have held we would go to 1040 then up to 1111 then down to 1040 up to 1100 then break below 1040.... though spx never hit 1040 only hit 1043.50ish... I dont know what that is in e-wave, but thats still my roadmap
1503
biib stall down at 5626 is ok for shorts...last 5658
1501
es needs to break 1106.50...last 1107.50
1500
i have an ES short setup daytrade here now at 1108 ES
1448
uaua vol soooo light today
1427
1426
uaua needs to break under 1518 and close 10min candle under there else it likely heads to 1540/43ish. last 1524
1422
HAS hasbro may be forming the 5 day candle pattern bearish rising methods...on daily chart
1419
tbt has been a goldmine these days but i see no re-entry yet... do not expect one today .. swinging tbt every 2-4 days is whats required for now, except for the long term piece i'm holding as a position trade for months
1411
uaua needs to crack and close 10min under 1918 for some downside momen. last 1522
1408
ORCL stoch daily looks like it will dbl top, the daily rsi is confirming a lower hi...more to follow details....lots of signals in the ORCL
1407
ORCL looks like a really nice swing short... details later... but daily chart good, a bit early entry but the doji inside day,,,, 60 min cracking, 15min weakening... this is an early entry with higher returm but still only moderate risk.... the risk is less than most early entries .. daily chart says "wait" for swing... but i'm in short from 2440. last 2428
1358
I will likely close my UAUA short today (the second half, took 2-2.5% profit already on first half), and re-eval re-entry on Monday if merited. Same strategy as exiting the TBT at 50.27 yest b4 this tbt decline today. i've entered ORCL new position today instead, as swing
1354
still short uaua...stop survived by 2 cents
1352
shorting orcl here swing 24.40
1301
stop 1533 uaua...give a lil room
1259
stop 1531 on uaua
1255
uaua 4 cents from stopping out even on 50% of short that i didnt take profits on. last 15.25 .. i took 2-2.5% profits on other half already
1243
still no re-entry into tbt
1150
my feb 5 target for spx was 1111...lets see if it gets there or not... 1110.37 high so far
1126
biib bearish rising wedge nearing apex
1125
stops on remaining UAUA are set to breakeven, partial 2% profits already taken as posted previously
1039
sorry for sparse comments today... managing 12 open positions here... all trade premises still valid... shorts in biib has uaua,,, long vxx typ
944
UAUA is forming a shooting star in 60 min. i will be watching this czu shoot star can be BULLISH when it occurs near a bottom... 60min trend down but UAUA might want 1529 so watching it... last 1500
942
uaua short is all over the map this morn... still green but jerky
839
ES pivot now is 1102: over that, bullish, under it bearish. Last 1101
8:33am
Well ES started to follow the roadmap below from 9:24 last night. It hit 1093, bounced up, and is now at 1100.50. Will it turn back down here, or continue higher?
9:24 PM
The ES futures are down sharply tonight, 11 points right now at 1096 with a low so far of 1093.
It's still early for roadmaps, but a possible roadmap would be 1093 to 1100 to 1093 to 1086 to 1080
We cannot rule out a rally up tomorrow if the markets gap down, although I remain bearish (as I have been for the past 3 days).
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
out of rest of uaua at breakeven, took 2 - 2.5% profit on half of shares
1541
this looks head-fakish....es at 1108
1538
SHORTING csco 2428... will add more if gets higher ... swing
1532
if CSCO surges up.. i might short into the surge up...today..unsure.. last 2426
1525
plan: close uaua today swing,,, keep the shorts in biib has orcl, keep qqqq march puts, keep typ vxx and everything else
1524
es...1102 break would suggest 1098... maybe not happn here in opex
1522
es should see 1102.....it stalled bounce at 1105 not 1104 suggests 1102... i think lol
1519
BIIB should make it down to 5627 then maybe 5617... last 5652
1518
ok ORCL stalled exactly at the 2423 and is moving up... still ok for shorts, expected this
1517
i dont think the last move down was a headfake... see lower ahead
1515
orcl stall at 2421 would be ok for shorts...last 2423
1515
es 1104/02 trgt next
1514
that ES daytrade
signal 1108 worked nice... last 1105
1513
since jan 25,,,, i have held we would go to 1040 then up to 1111 then down to 1040 up to 1100 then break below 1040.... though spx never hit 1040 only hit 1043.50ish... I dont know what that is in e-wave, but thats still my roadmap
1503
biib stall down at 5626 is ok for shorts...last 5658
1501
es needs to break 1106.50...last 1107.50
1500
i have an ES short setup daytrade here now at 1108 ES
1448
uaua vol soooo light today
1427
ORCL poss mini roadmap: down to 2405 up to 2437 break under 2405 ... 2381, 2291, 2173 targets to start
1426
uaua needs to break under 1518 and close 10min candle under there else it likely heads to 1540/43ish. last 1524
1422
HAS hasbro may be forming the 5 day candle pattern bearish rising methods...on daily chart
1419
tbt has been a goldmine these days but i see no re-entry yet... do not expect one today .. swinging tbt every 2-4 days is whats required for now, except for the long term piece i'm holding as a position trade for months
1411
uaua needs to crack and close 10min under 1918 for some downside momen. last 1522
1408
ORCL stoch daily looks like it will dbl top, the daily rsi is confirming a lower hi...more to follow details....lots of signals in the ORCL
1407
ORCL looks like a really nice swing short... details later... but daily chart good, a bit early entry but the doji inside day,,,, 60 min cracking, 15min weakening... this is an early entry with higher returm but still only moderate risk.... the risk is less than most early entries .. daily chart says "wait" for swing... but i'm in short from 2440. last 2428
1358
I will likely close my UAUA short today (the second half, took 2-2.5% profit already on first half), and re-eval re-entry on Monday if merited. Same strategy as exiting the TBT at 50.27 yest b4 this tbt decline today. i've entered ORCL new position today instead, as swing
1354
still short uaua...stop survived by 2 cents
1352
shorting orcl here swing 24.40
1301
stop 1533 uaua...give a lil room
1259
stop 1531 on uaua
1255
uaua 4 cents from stopping out even on 50% of short that i didnt take profits on. last 15.25 .. i took 2-2.5% profits on other half already
1243
still no re-entry into tbt
1150
my feb 5 target for spx was 1111...lets see if it gets there or not... 1110.37 high so far
1126
biib bearish rising wedge nearing apex
1125
stops on remaining UAUA are set to breakeven, partial 2% profits already taken as posted previously
1039
sorry for sparse comments today... managing 12 open positions here... all trade premises still valid... shorts in biib has uaua,,, long vxx typ
944
UAUA is forming a shooting star in 60 min. i will be watching this czu shoot star can be BULLISH when it occurs near a bottom... 60min trend down but UAUA might want 1529 so watching it... last 1500
942
uaua short is all over the map this morn... still green but jerky
839
ES pivot now is 1102: over that, bullish, under it bearish. Last 1101
8:33am
Well ES started to follow the roadmap below from 9:24 last night. It hit 1093, bounced up, and is now at 1100.50. Will it turn back down here, or continue higher?
9:24 PM
The ES futures are down sharply tonight, 11 points right now at 1096 with a low so far of 1093.
It's still early for roadmaps, but a possible roadmap would be 1093 to 1100 to 1093 to 1086 to 1080
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
UAUA United Airlines, short, quick charts
Some quick charts here. More detail later.
Today I shorted UAUA at 15.30. The trade is already up green 2% (today alone).
I usually don't short stocks that have GAPPED UP like UAUA did on Tuesday. (Because gap ups that hold are bullish. But of course there are bearish exhaustion gaps, etc). However, this presents an interesting opportunity. Right now I am trading the pullback, but this could turn into a very lucrative longer period trade as well (3-21 days).
On the 60 minute chart, the Uptrend line was broken lower, and it did not even backtest. It gapped down today (unfortunately, since I had identified UAUA last night as a stock I wanted to short, if it didn't gap down I would have gotten a better price.
IF the 60min RSI can get below 33, that would present more downside and would probably confirm a 60 minute downtrend (not a daily downtrend). In that case I would be looking for a lower high and lower low. The 20 and 50 MA are about to do a bearish cross. Yes the stoch in 60 min has been under 20 for awhile, but notice the MACD hist still is pretty low. It IS starting to possibly tick up higher, so we will need to watch this for a possible exit and re-entry if validated.
However, the DAILY histogram is DECLINING which is bearish, and has not even crossed below 0 yet. So there is potentially much more downside.
I'll revise the targets later for this, some are posted in the "Daily ramblings" below for Thursday. Just wanted to throw these out there quickly.
TARGETS
More details later perhaps, but IF 14.92 can be broken and sustained lower, the targets are 14.17, 13.81, 13.29, 13.01, 12.16, and even as low as 8.11 (after some up and down of course).
But one step at a time. Right now, I'm trading this as a swing (2-5 days) and see what happens from there.
60 Minute Chart 1 - double click to see whole chart, enlarged
*
Today I shorted UAUA at 15.30. The trade is already up green 2% (today alone).
TARGETS
More details later perhaps, but IF 14.92 can be broken and sustained lower, the targets are 14.17, 13.81, 13.29, 13.01, 12.16, and even as low as 8.11 (after some up and down of course).
I usually don't short stocks that have GAPPED UP like UAUA did on Tuesday. (Because gap ups that hold are bullish. But of course there are bearish exhaustion gaps, etc). However, this presents an interesting opportunity. Right now I am trading the pullback, but this could turn into a very lucrative longer period trade as well (3-21 days).
On the 60 minute chart, the Uptrend line was broken lower, and it did not even backtest. It gapped down today (unfortunately, since I had identified UAUA last night as a stock I wanted to short, if it didn't gap down I would have gotten a better price.
IF the 60min RSI can get below 33, that would present more downside and would probably confirm a 60 minute downtrend (not a daily downtrend). In that case I would be looking for a lower high and lower low. The 20 and 50 MA are about to do a bearish cross. Yes the stoch in 60 min has been under 20 for awhile, but notice the MACD hist still is pretty low. It IS starting to possibly tick up higher, so we will need to watch this for a possible exit and re-entry if validated.
However, the DAILY histogram is DECLINING which is bearish, and has not even crossed below 0 yet. So there is potentially much more downside.
I'll revise the targets later for this, some are posted in the "Daily ramblings" below for Thursday. Just wanted to throw these out there quickly.
TARGETS
More details later perhaps, but IF 14.92 can be broken and sustained lower, the targets are 14.17, 13.81, 13.29, 13.01, 12.16, and even as low as 8.11 (after some up and down of course).
But one step at a time. Right now, I'm trading this as a swing (2-5 days) and see what happens from there.
60 Minute Chart 1 - double click to see whole chart, enlarged
DAILY Chart 2 - double click to see whole chart, enlarged
*
"Disclaimer".
ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Thurs ramblings (and Wednesday eve / Thurs morning pre-market ES )
1555
uaua is now re-testing its LOD...likely to break lower
1533
looking for BIIB to stay under 5611... last 5601
1529
tried to add UAUA shorts but never popped up all day since entry.. so shorted HAS
1522
there goes tbt down from 5054 as expected... 5012 last and more downside... will consider re-loading again later
1513
i am writing some qqqq march 45 calls ... selling at 84 cents.. those are written not bought
1504
if spx 1107 is pierced there is good possibility of a shoot star after
1452
shorts in biib hasbro uaua not participating on the rally up here
1441
big shoot stars bearish in the BIIB
1439
spx 1108 is key... if bulls CLOSE OVER
1108..would be bullish
1436
tbt is looking tired, needs a rest and decline, then another move up in coming days.. still could hit daily
targets but getting tired
1432
BIIB short is also not participating in this lil rally
1425
UAUA doesnt care about this move up... its still down :)
1424
tbt headed for that 5070ishh target
1417
qqqq run risk of going up to 45.47 in coming days but for now i'm bearish on them for a pullback at least, if not more
1414
the UAUA is green up 2.5% in one day thus far (uaua is down 3.74 % but i shorted at a lower price)
1404
YES...uaua is cracking further down, deteriorating... last 1492
1353
ideally uaua will push even lower than 1496 today, or it might decide to pop back up to 15.58 tomorrow... last 1498
1341
shorted HAS at 35.63
1333
i've been waiting all day for a chance to short PCFB... no entry yet
1332
might buy back at 5001, tbt, maybe lower,, idk
1330
sold that tbt just in time... last 5017
1327
small port... locking in 50% of shares... gain of 4.5% TBT
1305
last 4 qqqq candles are bearish in 15min...but still have not gotten that 15min close under the 4460.. almost but didnt get it
1304
tbt 5070ish ...might take some profits if it gets there today
1303
tbt is forming an asc triangle bullish in 3min... its been straddling small candles right up the support UTL...
1302
uaua might want 1507 / 1513 before going down more
1301
small port uaua.... taking profit on 50% of shares at 1.8%
1300
large port...locking in some more uaua profits here at 2% profit,,,, if it pops up i will re-short them... closing half of shares...
small port... no action
1255
tbt clue was a break and close over 4919 over the narrow upper band, which expanded them. buy on break over narrow bands. Short if bands are wide, prices pierce over it, then close under it (upper band). reverse for lower band.
1254
tbt has a nice bullish bollinger band vs candle formation... 15min and 60 min
1251
true... inability to move UP on light vol is bearish
1248
qqqq have a very bearish 2 day candle pattern now (could change depennding on close of course).... a hammer followed by shoot star .. its a topping formation if the shoot star holds today
1245
grr marginal tbt support line break...3min.. still looks fine as swing
1240
oh here are the qqqq at 4460 impt level...maybe we will get some action here.. needs a 15min candlde close under it
1239
tbt is right on its accel UTL now... if this doesnt hold near 5022 then it will likely want 5001 before the next move up. last 5023
1238
gdx looks like poss bear island reversal setting up, one reason i'm short gdx
1234
if the qqqq get a 15min candle close under 4460 that should set up a pattern for further declines... needs to close under it
1225
3 white soldiers 3min tbt, and other indicators, suggest tbt should break over the 5030 to retest high 5042 and break the 5042 higher to 5060ish next... as long as the 3min trendline support holds
1219
TBT looks like mini dbl top in 3min but i think thats just a painted chart fake... over 1510ish its above its UTL
1212
the es 1098 should crack lower in 7 minutes... last 1098.50
1208
ooop...LOL its UAUA... UAL is the airline code when buying a ticket
1208
ual going downnnnnnn....last 15.00 :) on the way to 1418
1202
50,000 foot view roadmap for UAL in coming weeks/months: est #'s... 15 to 14 to15 to 12 to 14 to 10 for possible 50% return ... forecasting only on half-baked data... one step at a time.... 1418 target for now
1200
if tbt can get 50.90ish today, i'll take some profit up there for 5% profit on 50% of the shares on the swing and buy back
1155
taking some shares off UAUA here..locking in 1.5% profit in 2 hours daytrade piece....
1154
if uaua is cracking now... 1511
1151
if uaua can crack this 15.12 we should get the 14.18 target... lower targets later but stall 1418 ... last 1511
1144
wow uaua is stuck at 1512 the last 25 minutes.. break lower lol
1128
uaua is right at the 1511 support... last 1512...needs to crack the 1511 to 1509 then lower
1121
UAUA short doing good...needs to break 1509... last 1512
1120
wow tbt hit the 5042 target in the time it took me to type 5021... watching for possible profit taking here at 4% profit
1120
tbt another new high at the 5022 target.... 5041 next... prob will stall if it gets 5041
1109
1107
tbt is breaking out as expected 10 min ago... still watching for signs to take partial profits, then rebuy. i'll only take profits on 25-50% of swing shares, hold the rest. last 50.12.. 5022,,, 50.43 targets maybe
1057
tbt is setting up a pattern that might suggest taking some profits and then buying back... i'm waiting to see what happens in the 60min chart...15min chart weakening... last 4980, HOD 49.99... should get a new high, then maybe profits on a piece... still have the higher tbt targets for swing piece... may sell some and then buy back again (like before)
1054
qqqq hit 4469, 4 cents from the feb 5 target of 4473... expecting a move down now in qqqq in coming hours days
1042
1019
ok the qqqq hit a high of 4378 or 5 cents over my feb 5 call. lets see if it declines from here or not
1017
i still think GILD will go lower, but took loss and swapped the weaker UAUA for gild isntead
1016
took a nasty loss on gild at 49,,, but tbt rocking again....tbtb last 4998 high of day here
1014
qqqq 6 cents from 4473 target here
9:50
SHORTED UAUA at 15.33
948
OUT of GILD for now... took a loss ... stopped out
925
under 1097 es i am bearish intraday... last 1096... a pop above is ok but cannot sustain above it
9:22
bought a few qqqq puts feb for 12 cents yest just for fun... see if they expire worthless or pop up today... last 10 cents
9:20
vxx is up a lil premarket here (bearish spx)
845
considering UAUA united air...short today...
8:34 AM
The 1:00 AM roadmap continues along. ES just declined from 1098.50 to 1094 for another 1094 test.
6:38 AM
Well ES hit it's first target exactly (see 1:06 AM post, below this one). 1094 was the overnight low. It hit 1094, then bounced. Last is 1098.50. A retest of 1094 is likely, with a break and move to 1088 still the target for now.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
uaua is now re-testing its LOD...likely to break lower
1533
looking for BIIB to stay under 5611... last 5601
1529
tried to add UAUA shorts but never popped up all day since entry.. so shorted HAS
1522
there goes tbt down from 5054 as expected... 5012 last and more downside... will consider re-loading again later
1513
i am writing some qqqq march 45 calls ... selling at 84 cents.. those are written not bought
1504
if spx 1107 is pierced there is good possibility of a shoot star after
1452
shorts in biib hasbro uaua not participating on the rally up here
1441
big shoot stars bearish in the BIIB
1439
spx 1108 is key... if bulls CLOSE OVER
1108..would be bullish
1436
tbt is looking tired, needs a rest and decline, then another move up in coming days.. still could hit daily
targets but getting tired
1432
BIIB short is also not participating in this lil rally
1425
UAUA doesnt care about this move up... its still down :)
1424
tbt headed for that 5070ishh target
1417
qqqq run risk of going up to 45.47 in coming days but for now i'm bearish on them for a pullback at least, if not more
1414
the UAUA is green up 2.5% in one day thus far (uaua is down 3.74 % but i shorted at a lower price)
1404
YES...uaua is cracking further down, deteriorating... last 1492
1353
ideally uaua will push even lower than 1496 today, or it might decide to pop back up to 15.58 tomorrow... last 1498
1341
shorted HAS at 35.63
1333
i've been waiting all day for a chance to short PCFB... no entry yet
1332
might buy back at 5001, tbt, maybe lower,, idk
1330
sold that tbt just in time... last 5017
1327
small port... locking in 50% of shares... gain of 4.5% TBT
1305
last 4 qqqq candles are bearish in 15min...but still have not gotten that 15min close under the 4460.. almost but didnt get it
1304
tbt 5070ish ...might take some profits if it gets there today
1303
tbt is forming an asc triangle bullish in 3min... its been straddling small candles right up the support UTL...
1302
uaua might want 1507 / 1513 before going down more
1301
small port uaua.... taking profit on 50% of shares at 1.8%
1300
large port...locking in some more uaua profits here at 2% profit,,,, if it pops up i will re-short them... closing half of shares...
small port... no action
1255
tbt clue was a break and close over 4919 over the narrow upper band, which expanded them. buy on break over narrow bands. Short if bands are wide, prices pierce over it, then close under it (upper band). reverse for lower band.
1254
tbt has a nice bullish bollinger band vs candle formation... 15min and 60 min
1251
true... inability to move UP on light vol is bearish
1248
qqqq have a very bearish 2 day candle pattern now (could change depennding on close of course).... a hammer followed by shoot star .. its a topping formation if the shoot star holds today
1245
grr marginal tbt support line break...3min.. still looks fine as swing
1240
oh here are the qqqq at 4460 impt level...maybe we will get some action here.. needs a 15min candlde close under it
1239
tbt is right on its accel UTL now... if this doesnt hold near 5022 then it will likely want 5001 before the next move up. last 5023
1238
gdx looks like poss bear island reversal setting up, one reason i'm short gdx
1234
if the qqqq get a 15min candle close under 4460 that should set up a pattern for further declines... needs to close under it
1225
3 white soldiers 3min tbt, and other indicators, suggest tbt should break over the 5030 to retest high 5042 and break the 5042 higher to 5060ish next... as long as the 3min trendline support holds
1219
TBT looks like mini dbl top in 3min but i think thats just a painted chart fake... over 1510ish its above its UTL
1212
the es 1098 should crack lower in 7 minutes... last 1098.50
1208
ooop...LOL its UAUA... UAL is the airline code when buying a ticket
1208
ual going downnnnnnn....last 15.00 :) on the way to 1418
1202
50,000 foot view roadmap for UAL in coming weeks/months: est #'s... 15 to 14 to15 to 12 to 14 to 10 for possible 50% return ... forecasting only on half-baked data... one step at a time.... 1418 target for now
1200
if tbt can get 50.90ish today, i'll take some profit up there for 5% profit on 50% of the shares on the swing and buy back
1155
taking some shares off UAUA here..locking in 1.5% profit in 2 hours daytrade piece....
1154
if uaua is cracking now... 1511
1151
if uaua can crack this 15.12 we should get the 14.18 target... lower targets later but stall 1418 ... last 1511
1144
wow uaua is stuck at 1512 the last 25 minutes.. break lower lol
1128
uaua is right at the 1511 support... last 1512...needs to crack the 1511 to 1509 then lower
1121
UAUA short doing good...needs to break 1509... last 1512
1120
wow tbt hit the 5042 target in the time it took me to type 5021... watching for possible profit taking here at 4% profit
1120
tbt another new high at the 5022 target.... 5041 next... prob will stall if it gets 5041
1109
qqqq made a marginal new high to 44.73, by exact target from feb 5... if that was HOD it would be cool... could stretch higher tho
1107
tbt is breaking out as expected 10 min ago... still watching for signs to take partial profits, then rebuy. i'll only take profits on 25-50% of swing shares, hold the rest. last 50.12.. 5022,,, 50.43 targets maybe
1057
tbt is setting up a pattern that might suggest taking some profits and then buying back... i'm waiting to see what happens in the 60min chart...15min chart weakening... last 4980, HOD 49.99... should get a new high, then maybe profits on a piece... still have the higher tbt targets for swing piece... may sell some and then buy back again (like before)
1054
qqqq hit 4469, 4 cents from the feb 5 target of 4473... expecting a move down now in qqqq in coming hours days
1042
UAUA short from 15.31... targets1505 1511 1418. then re-eval at 1418... other details and refined target to follow... calculating now... last 1517, green ~1% in last hour... swing trade.... scalpers could lock some 1% gains here,,, i'll just hold swing longer
1019
ok the qqqq hit a high of 4378 or 5 cents over my feb 5 call. lets see if it declines from here or not
1017
i still think GILD will go lower, but took loss and swapped the weaker UAUA for gild isntead
1016
took a nasty loss on gild at 49,,, but tbt rocking again....tbtb last 4998 high of day here
1014
qqqq 6 cents from 4473 target here
9:50
SHORTED UAUA at 15.33
948
OUT of GILD for now... took a loss ... stopped out
925
under 1097 es i am bearish intraday... last 1096... a pop above is ok but cannot sustain above it
9:22
bought a few qqqq puts feb for 12 cents yest just for fun... see if they expire worthless or pop up today... last 10 cents
9:20
vxx is up a lil premarket here (bearish spx)
845
considering UAUA united air...short today...
8:34 AM
The 1:00 AM roadmap continues along. ES just declined from 1098.50 to 1094 for another 1094 test.
6:38 AM
Well ES hit it's first target exactly (see 1:06 AM post, below this one). 1094 was the overnight low. It hit 1094, then bounced. Last is 1098.50. A retest of 1094 is likely, with a break and move to 1088 still the target for now.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
ES to 1094 then 1088 tonite / early tomorrow?
The overnight futures have a chart pattern (M) that suggests a possible move down to 1088 overnight or tomorrow morning. Will be interesting to watch. 1094 then 1088.
This is speculative, the pattern is not firmed up, only half-baked at 1:03 AM EST.
Last ES is 1098.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
This is speculative, the pattern is not firmed up, only half-baked at 1:03 AM EST.
Last ES is 1098.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Bearish... In the minority, again?
12:35 AM update:
i remain in typ (3x short tech), vxx, tbt, and short some individ stocks like GILD (yes might need to take a loss on the GILD, will see... others still have a valid trade premise. The TYP is red now, but still valid for me. SImilar to when my longs were red around Feb 6, but then moved green. GILD is currently the only "iffy" one, somewhat of a mess
***************************************************************************
It seems that everyone is getting excited about this recent rally. During the daily ramblings today, I mentioned several things that I see as bearish, that I've noticed during the day today, as well as in the last few days.
Yes, I realize that I am once again in the minority here. When the QQQQ were down and most were bearish, I was calling for a move in qqqq to 44.47. The target was achieved, and qqqq made a slightly higher price. Maybe it could pop up higher. But overall, I am mid-term bearish.
I still will be looking for that 3 day bearish eve star candle pattern tomorrow (that I postulated earlier today).
WE COULD GO HIGHER, but I still see at least a minor pullback, then maybe 1110/20 (if we get there at all), then 1030, then a bounce, then a break under 1030.
Other notes:
rally is on declining volume
could see 1110/15 but should go down first if we do, then up 1110
60 min macd hist momen declining (lower bars)
qqqq bear rising wedge 60min. macd hist falling (of course, wedges can convert to bullish up channels instead).
0448
qqqq daily volume is very low the last 7 trading days, prices can drift up until we see volume. i expect a move down whenever volume returns. we could drift up all
week, with minor pullbacks.
0349
i have an "early short swing" setup now
0307
this rally up has been ...advancing prices on declining vol... but of course we've seen THAT before, sometimes relentlessly... bearish
0257
i like the vix action here... suggesting a bounce up in the vix (down spx)
0241
a tbt close over 49.62 would be nice for tbt longs.. last 4963
0230
a vix 60min close over 22.67 would be bullish for vix, bearish for spx... last 21.90 ... charts suggest a move higher in vix
1357
on vix...compare 2/2 and 2/3 and with yesterdays candle and todays candel.. what do u see? suggests that vix will move up (spx down) in coming days
1356
6 days of spx clawing up to undo one red candle....below the 50 MA, lower highs, lower lows, ... to me this is bearish still
1328
Alt view: bearish ... look at spx candles on 2/1 and 2/2. then 2/3 and 2/4
1258
qqqq can chop around in this narrow range, push it up to overhought, and then the TYP should do well.. last qqqq 44.44
*****************
1249
the qqqq daily spin top could possibly set up a bearish 3 day eve star pattern tomorrow
9:16
i see qqqq just over the 4447 now just over my feb 6 target of 4451.. watching to see if they decline after open or striver for 4471. I do expect a pullback to around 44 to backtest, at least, sometime in the coming hours
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
i remain in typ (3x short tech), vxx, tbt, and short some individ stocks like GILD (yes might need to take a loss on the GILD, will see... others still have a valid trade premise. The TYP is red now, but still valid for me. SImilar to when my longs were red around Feb 6, but then moved green. GILD is currently the only "iffy" one, somewhat of a mess
***************************************************************************
It seems that everyone is getting excited about this recent rally. During the daily ramblings today, I mentioned several things that I see as bearish, that I've noticed during the day today, as well as in the last few days.
Yes, I realize that I am once again in the minority here. When the QQQQ were down and most were bearish, I was calling for a move in qqqq to 44.47. The target was achieved, and qqqq made a slightly higher price. Maybe it could pop up higher. But overall, I am mid-term bearish.
I still will be looking for that 3 day bearish eve star candle pattern tomorrow (that I postulated earlier today).
WE COULD GO HIGHER, but I still see at least a minor pullback, then maybe 1110/20 (if we get there at all), then 1030, then a bounce, then a break under 1030.
Other notes:
rally is on declining volume
could see 1110/15 but should go down first if we do, then up 1110
60 min macd hist momen declining (lower bars)
qqqq bear rising wedge 60min. macd hist falling (of course, wedges can convert to bullish up channels instead).
Today during the day, i made some comments. I've looked at the charts this evening again, and still see things the same way.
Below, I've cut and pasted some comments I made during the day today. I believe these are all still valid.
0448
qqqq daily volume is very low the last 7 trading days, prices can drift up until we see volume. i expect a move down whenever volume returns. we could drift up all
week, with minor pullbacks.
0349
i have an "early short swing" setup now
0307
this rally up has been ...advancing prices on declining vol... but of course we've seen THAT before, sometimes relentlessly... bearish
0257
i like the vix action here... suggesting a bounce up in the vix (down spx)
0241
a tbt close over 49.62 would be nice for tbt longs.. last 4963
0230
a vix 60min close over 22.67 would be bullish for vix, bearish for spx... last 21.90 ... charts suggest a move higher in vix
1357
on vix...compare 2/2 and 2/3 and with yesterdays candle and todays candel.. what do u see? suggests that vix will move up (spx down) in coming days
1356
6 days of spx clawing up to undo one red candle....below the 50 MA, lower highs, lower lows, ... to me this is bearish still
1328
Alt view: bearish ... look at spx candles on 2/1 and 2/2. then 2/3 and 2/4
1258
qqqq can chop around in this narrow range, push it up to overhought, and then the TYP should do well.. last qqqq 44.44
*****************
1249
the qqqq daily spin top could possibly set up a bearish 3 day eve star pattern tomorrow
9:16
i see qqqq just over the 4447 now just over my feb 6 target of 4451.. watching to see if they decline after open or striver for 4471. I do expect a pullback to around 44 to backtest, at least, sometime in the coming hours
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
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