More on SPX pullback, and still believe DOW 10,754 is "it" for 2010

I will try to add some charts here later; right now I have about 15 charts, but none are suitable for display LOL (too confusing, messy).

SUMMARY
I took shorts on an EARLY entry setup last Thursday and Friday.  Pullback to 1080/70 SPX. Could pop higher first but I am short now. Continue to believe that DOW will not exceed 10,753 in year 2010. I'm short SPX QQQQ ORCL CSCO HAS BIIB. Long VXX (expecting VIX to rise). Long TYP (which means I'm shorting tech).


DETAILS
My analysis continues to suggest a pullback to 1080/70ish and then 1038 (more precise targets later).  Longer term, I see 916/950ish, even 667 perhaps (more precise targets later). Since March, I haven't been convinced that we will see 667 or lower, but I must say that it is now "more likely" to me now, then in April, July, or September.  In November, December, it began to appear more likely.

A pop UP first before the decline to 1080 / 38 cannot be ruled out, but from a swing perspective i have an EARLY entry short setup. I've already positioned myself short on Friday as posted (short SPX QQQQ ORCL CSCO HAS BIIB). Long VXX (expecting VIX to rise). Long TYP (which means I'm shorting tech).

Because this is an early short setup / signal entry, a move up could happen but I've positioned myself short "early" in order to participate in case the move up does not happen. This could be similar to when I went long Feb 1 around 1075(my target was 1111)  and the spx moved down to 1044 after I went long. Because this was an early entry long, prices declined further before they went up. I simply bought more at lower prices, but I closed that position when my 1111 target was hit on Friday.

True, the setup / signal is early (as of Friday 4:00 PM) but it could easily turn to "confirmed short entry" on Monday. We will wait and see what develops.

Last year, I called for the DOW to get to 10,753 and then decline. It came very close to that (it made 10,730).

I also stated that I believe that the DOW WILL NOT GET OVER 10,753 in 2010. 

Right now, I still believe this. The next two weeks could change my viewpoint to thinking the DOW will go higher than 10,750 this year, but for now, I continue to see a slow dribble down all year.


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