422
i know that other stocks might give a better % return than appl... but the aapl chart is "clean", to me
421
i'm watching AAPL and will be taking a position in it in the coming hours or days... the charts are strongly suggesting that AAPL is about to make a significant move in one direction or the othe. waiting to see if it will be long or short but the short side is favored, for now, for multiple reasons. but i'll jump long on aapl if merited. could be wrong... but this chart setup in aapl... it usually results in a large move. move will not happen in one day, but in 3-21 days type thing
415
for me, we have a higher low but not higher hi yet... i'm using the 11/02 high... i prefer the more conservative (harder to get) higher high over the last high that touched the trendline before it broke ... in this case 11/02
414
on sds daily... draw a trendline from highs from8/19/09 until 11/3 and extend it down... sds broke OVER that dtl and has backetested it, on daily and it is currently OVER the DTL
409
bearish from swing perspective in coming days, not necessarily just tomorrow
408
i'm still bearish... the daily and 60 min DTL have not been violated. Have not pierced up and backtested... and very overbought with declining macd and bearish divergences
403
since spx tested the 50 MA resist on 2/19, we have gotten lower highs and lower lows on daily candles
402
i view it more as just a move between S and R today... the candles work much better when there's a trend,,, we are moving sideways here, or a mild downtrend the last few days
400
hmm q's closed at 4460...missed the 4452 trgt close
358
what happened today? we tested support. it held. then bounced up to resist. it held. charts suggest the next move is down to me
350
looking for the last qqqq 60min candle to close around 4452... last 4464
335
typ 958 filled also
334
first fill.... typ at 961
332
limit buy 962 typ
323
for now i'll do limit buy TYP at 958
317
the qqqq have formed a nice down channel in 60min chart.. very easy to see it now
301
i do not have a re-enter short setup here... qqqq 4442
258
still looking to short that silver PAAS... hit the 2140 target but i want to make sure it doesnt want higher first....getting close
221
i intend to add more FXP when these charts look cleaner
208
the chinese market is weaker than usa right now...earlier last yr was stronger but no longer
206
forget TYP.... buying some FXP here at 9.45
200
took profits in typ...stopped out
157
qqqq nailed that target #1...see if it backs down now....
156
or 968 typ stop...mental stop on typ
155
972 stop on typ to take profits there
152
this looks impressive qqqq but thus far merely a marginal violation of the HOD with a few layers of R above.....
151
4429 QQQQ resist...might stop there
146
lets see what happn qqqq 4414 last 4408
126
MM dropped bids... see if it retreats... last 4400 qqqq
124
paas target is 2147 then 2170... last 2125... waiting still to short that silver
123
at same time qqqq exhibiting signs of re-testing high of day and poss hit higher targets from 2 hrs ago.... still not going long,,,remain short
121
adx is suggesting a move down to lower intraday lows....
120
hmm interestingly the DMI ADX is saying "more lower prices.... downtrend getting stronger" even tho its moving up here...this is tricky
119
that "up then down" pattern i mentioned before... this is the "up" part...so far very weak,,, still in the "up part"
117
often they will have an underlying bid while they sell into it,,, then when they r done selling they drop the bid and the market drops
116
MM are holding this up but i think they r selling into while holding up...hard to tell from my software readings
110
tiger weaker now 73%
108
the inability of the bulls to get over 1090 spx is extremeeeeeeeeeeeely bearish... thus far unable...watching to see if they do
106
ok they r letting off the bid now... *whew*...still watching...this is tricky here for me at least
104
might sell typ early if qqqq break higher.. i do not like the underlying bid.... but waiting
103
TYP stop at 9.78,,,,might raise it or exit b4 then....
1256
PAAS taking off....
2114...why i waited to short silver
1255
gary.... i am glad charts look like this now at 1255pm instead of at 4pm....charts like this at 4pm...me no like.. maybe it will actually close clearly
1253
the qqqq candle close 15min from 945AM still valid...but so close it's iffy
1252
qqqq....hard to tell if MM playing games and painting charts here... looks bullish but stilll not long setup for me
1251
still watching paas to short...but a close over 20.73 on 60min suggests more up, so waiting, tho the 2101 right here is decent entry but early
1248
qqqq up targets would be 4414, 4423, 4431 ... not trading it long
1242
hmm ok my charts suggest another one of those up down patterns like we got other day... if the q's break over 4303 and 4314ish
1240
88% confidence on qqqq crouching tiger.... candle close 15min over 4403 still valid too... but its a contratrend tiger so less powerful
1234
bears have pushed AAPL UNDER its daily 50 MA and now under 20MA... bears barely (no pun) did it, but its there
1231
taking some qqqq options profits now at 33% profit, holding most for better levels... options that i got yest or day b4...i forget lol
1230
if VIX can close a 15min candle over 22% that would be bullish vix, bearish spx qqqq
1229
VIX is holding for now.... but no bear crouching tiger on it... tiger confid 73% now (moderate)
1226
hmm this is tricky here now.... could go either way... still bearish intraday but finger is on the "cover shorts" button lol
1219
i might sell some typ if qqqq breakout higher.... not yet...
1216
paas hit that 20.97 target to short...but waiting
1203
i want to short the PAAS silver but being patient... 20.97 short is viable but i'll wait even longer to see what it does.. could go higher
1202
2190 comp.... watching reaction if it gets there.. bounce or penetrate? should stall 2190/84.... last 2201
1158
if ADX can rise over 21 in 60min that could create fireworks .. over 30 would be awesome, last 18.45
1156
ok the DMI ADX is now saying DOWNTREND FORMING but not 100%... 80% confidence.. it is beginning to confirm the downtrend should accelerate.... in the daily and 60min ADX DMI
1151
to be more bearish, i want to see the qqqq 60min rsi make a lower low...it has NOT done so yet
1149
the bears really need to push lower today, i know this looks like a nice red candle already, but if they don't push lower, it will setup the charts for a bounce back up. i still expect such a bounce to be a lower high, but it will keep us locked in this range....
1149
qqqq look like they will break this time lower..last 4392
1144
BEARS still need to break the 20 MA daily, and CLOSE BELOW it .. until then we can see this chop between the 50 and 20 MA.... i remain bearish tho
1139
thinking of using PAAS short instead of ZSL or SLV short, for the silver short trade....
1107
for last 3 days i've been waiting for entry to short silver... not ready yet but starting to get closer
1057
when i see heavy selling like that, near resist 2800, i step aside....
1056
i am EXITING the ABC long now, near breakeven, a small losss... dont like this.. can always re-enter... out at 2789
1054
hmm ABC just saw some heavy selling at 2790...need to watch this for possible HOD.... still bullish but warning....
1052
lets see how qqqq does on next test up of 4403. last 4401
1050
the ABC is amazingly resilient
1049
nice. ABC long seems destined to test yest hi at 2804,,, charts surprisingly suggest a breakout over it today IF it stays over 2774ish! last 2794
1047
thus far, the 15min candle close over 4303 idea has held... qqqq hit 4303 but did NOT CLOSE the candle over it
1046
hmm there is a poss mild bull diverg in qqqq 15minutes tho, so watching this... could get whipsaw
1045
but charts suggest a break under 4390 to test the low, at least, of 4383
1044
qqqq just survived the first hit to 4390 supp...held 4391...
1043
*under 1092 not 1090
1043
i still expect spx to make a lower low intraday, then bounce, and close under 1090 today
1040
qqqq need to hold 4390 else a new low of day...last 4394....hold 4390 could bounce up
1035
spx will likely stall at 1092 to 1090, then maybe up more..last 1090.50
1029
ABC stall at 28000/2804 expected, last 2792
1029
ABC long position is rocking up, esp considering this awful spx red day
1028
1090 spx conintues to maintain authority... the NEXT try to pierce it higher could work....watching
1023
wow the ABC long recovered nicely....now is only dow 0.23% ... nervous ABC longs could exit here, i will stay long for now
1022
qqqq moving up a lil but i do NOT trust long yet,,,still no 4303 close on 15min
1020
abc 2781 stall expected...last 2780
1019
good... ABC made a marginal new high... trying to fill its gap...wathcing that one
1017
then use the 133t 1,2,3 min to time the entry
1016
a qqqq close over 4403 candle 15min would likely give a daytrade long qqqq but i won't take it ... not sure that it will give the setup on 4403 but it looks likely
1014
spx 1090 R is holding auth so far... some pops over it are allowed but inability to get 1103 would be very bearish
1012
the BERKSHIRE short newly entered yesterday is down nice, on track.. yea i know many wouldn't short warren buffet
1010
ok there was the 1090 down to 1088 b4 over 1090,,, still no scalp long signal
1009
the ABC long is recovering nicely and doing ok during this onslaught in spx. i might close the abc today for small profit or small loss, depending on charts
1007
i thnk spx will move down to 1088 before over 1090....last 1090
1006
i do not even have a scalp long setup on qqqq (smallest setup: scalp, daytrade, swing, position)
1000
lets see if spx 1092 holds its authority, with a max high today of 1094 / 1101
957
STOP 2743 on ABC long.... its down 0.81%
955
last night... i called for a close today under 1092 spx....lets see if we get it... if we do, very bearish, and more down in coming days even on a bounce up... the mid range spx down targets should get hit if the close comes
946
i could have gotten a better price on csco but just wanted out of it...took the profits a bit early... csco was showing "relative" strength so i abandon
938
took CSCO profits....all gone at 23.97
936
vix up 9.8% :)
935
wow qqqq taget 4388 and bounced...one penny from target
933
the QQQQ calls i wrote yest are up 30% profit today ... took a few profits, holding most for much better profits
929
right now, i see no recovery high. that might change, but since 2/19 i've said 2/19 is the high for now b4 we break the prior low... that analysis still valid IMHO
901
qqqq' targets similar to yesterday's... premarket this morn i see the q's hit the 4423 target from yesterday,,,
8:58 AM
my sds targets 35.63 3578 3621 3657 3711 3787 3798 3823 3847 3863 3897 3935 in coming hours days
Wedn 11:14 PM
Summary
I remain bearish the QQQQ (and spx) despite today's move up.
Minor details
This up down up down sideways action is typical of topping patterns. We still have the bear eve star from yest, rsi is down, volume on green days remains lower than red days. Further the QQQQ failed to re-test the last minor high today, not making it up. This morning I called that the QQQQ would not make it over .73,,,, they did make it higher but not much. So the QQQQ continue on the roadmap I put out last week pretty well thus far.
Bullish warnings
There are some bullish signs also, so a move up cannot be ruled out. I just remain bearishly biased until more bullish action presents itself. The Money Flow and other breadth indicators are still bullish.
Sideways
The QQQQ are stuck between the 20 and 50 MA, bouncing around there, which is creating this sideways action. But yest I mentioned sideways as likely, based partly on the ADX DMI. Mid-day today I mentioned that ADX still said sideways, and it is starting to move bearishly but nothing conclusive there. The 10 min QQQQ does show lower highs...
The QQQQ need a close BELOW yesterdays low to be bearish. If they can close over yest HIGH that would start to move things bullishly.
Recent swing "duds"
The past few days I did enter and exit a few swings with minor profits. This is due to the sideways action. The premise for the trade weakened (was still valid but weaker) so I decided to abandon these and re-invest elsewhere. It's frustrating to close trades at 1/2 % profit, but better than a loss, or holding it for 2 weeks waiting for some movement.
TBT took a loss yesterday. VXX is red now.
Other successful trades
But we've had some nice gains lately too, as posted in posts below. Today took 2% a few times on daytrading TYP,,,, yesterday took 20% and 80% profits on qqqq options
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
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