Thursday, February 4, 2010

thurs ramblings (and Wednesday eve / Thurs morning pre-market ES )

315
i'll go on record... might be wrong... i see qqqq back to 44.47 in coming days... that's the setup i see, tho many analysts disagree

308
i still have dxd from DOW 10,720ish but thats only 25%... took profits 10,200

303
i will keep the long swings.... not for the faint of heart... its not a "hope for higher"... i trul see higher prices.. if not,,,, i'll take the loss n move on
 
252
tyh 120.07 vs 119.51 cost but holding... tna still red and holding

251
and if this turns into a dbl bottom... much higher prices of course

250
charts and TA are suggesting a move over 1103 in coming days...might be next week

247
1111 is still possible. charts still suggest this to me. they suggest a high over 1103... need to also watch for dbl bottom in the qqqq... watching both sides long n short

234
a 10min candle close over 42.94 would strengthen it

233
qqqq daytrade buy signal here... qqqq 4288

229
nervous tyh could exit here for small profit/breakeven... i will stay

224
under 1076 is bearish spx.... see if it can even get there
 
137
4297 4314 qqqq targets to start...more to follow

122
qqqq 10min bull harami bounce up candle pattern... also bottoming tail wicks....held the last low... needs to hold the 4276/4261

1256
the qqqq's held up ok on that last onslaught... held their LOD

1252
i'm waiting to see what happens at qqqq 42.61 if it gets there

1232
TNH will have wild swings....its the nature of that etf

1228
but i'm not taking that trade...already got sso (red now down 4.4%... swing size pos not daytrade size)

1228
an sso 10min candle close over 3546 would trigger a daytrade long sso...last 3535

1225
i'm going to give the tna tyh some room to breathe..wont necess sell on break of low of day.... eval as it goes along...

1220
positioned daytrade long via tnh tna,,, and will prob sell the tna sooner since i like tnh better

1211
TYH is 3x tech

1210
trying TYH 119.51

1201
also mental stop 3720 tna

1159
tna daytrad: 3734.. mental stop under Low Of Day

1152
now...watching out for poss bull inv HS to form in the 3min qqqq

1152
that might have been the qqqq low of day....42.79, tho 42.63 is so close it might want to test that

1150
BULL divergences setting up on 3min qqqq... but of course a 3min chart is "weak" and the move down is "strong"... but a bounce is expected as a result... last qqqq 4288

1145
i heard about that bloomberg thing like 2 weeks ago... that news is what i think is causing this hard selloff... link here  http://www.bloomberg.com/insight/birth-death-model.html

1126
for qqqq, a 10minute candle close over 43.11 would suggest a small intraday bounce up to 43.27.. last 43.03 and struggling to hold 43.00 else 42.61

1111
Interesting: the 60 min spx DTL Resist is at 1084.44. The 60 min 5MA R is 1084.44

1107
QLD avg cost now 52.59

1106
the 60min qqqq is right at RSI trendline support here.... qqqq 43.02

1102
52.23 QLD added at qqqq 43.01

1100
stopped out of last 25% piece of xlf... took loss on the last 25%, profit on 75%

1030
on Tuesday i suggested that SPX QQQQ might plunge down, but that i still expect a move higher than 1103 to follow the plunge. It sounds crazy, but amazinly the charts still support this, as I see them now...

1021
buy QLD 52.31 .. cost now 52.77

1017
buying QLD 52.31 here (QQQQ 43.04)

1011
vix 24.54... R at 25.07
1020
we win some,... lose some... this looks "bad" but the 60min chart and daily still arent "broken"...that is i see a bounce up...

1005
sounds crazy...but the door is not closed for a move over 1103 spx....yet.. not expecting that today of course, but still open

947
took some 5323 QLD here... 25% position starter.. last 5316

941
ah no...not perfect touch sorry... trendline is at about 1085 spx

941
60min--spx just did a perfect touch to my broken DTL (backtest).... held on first try

939
qqqq bull hammer forming...

918
i lowered the xlf stop to 13.97 while i watch the first 1-2 hours....

849
but right now... the ES is just chopping around... and the spx chart i posted last eve is still in play... that chart is good with ES over 1080...

843
to me it depends on how much volatility we get today and tomorrow. It's possible that spx could see 1111/1115 today in volatility, tho it seems crazy, its certainly possible. Or it might decline and whipsaw around until Monday. Preferably the ES would stay over the 1084/80 area but certainly would need to hold 1066 low (though i don't expect that far down). If 1080 doesn't hold though, a 1066 test is likely and then perhaps 1105 was "it" for now,,,

837
es 1086 first level support holding thus far,,,, 1082 next support... under 1082 could cause fireworks

836
right now weekly qqqq bull harami but it would require a close of 43.80 or higher

829
There is a coil in spx that could break either way. Right now, premarket, the ES is backtesting it's breakout point. I still expect the 1111/15 spx but it might come after a down move first, as the 60min churns. As long as support holds i expect 1111/15.... if support breaks then it's questionable.

8:22 AM
I will try Pre-market: limit sell sso 37.19. Then maybe buy it back... unsure...


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

No comments:

Post a Comment