400
wow!!!! vix hit my exact target at 16:00 pm.... 1984
350
more selling here....for me (10 cent price drop)
329 PM
expected vix to close over 1984 today.... last 1938...
324
my software says the marketmakers continue selling into this,, at 108pm, and now again
320
the qqqq is starting to break down out of its bear rising wedge here... suggesting downward in the coming days
248
inability to push the q's to 45 on light volume is not bullish
242
few days ago... sold the calls at 60 cents, covered at 42 cents for 30% profit
Inaccurate:
211
4456 qqqq test could happn still today
400
wow!!!! vix hit my exact target at 16:00 pm.... 1984
350
more selling here....for me
349
sell programs on my software now
347
the VIX 1957 target hit.. :).... 1984 next .... hit exeactly 1957 and backed down
346
adding more qqqq shorts swing
342
1957 vix and 1984 targets on vix
341
vix climbing toward my 1984 target up from 1938...last 1947
339
i have a SWING SHORT qqqq signal if the qqqq close under 4474
329 PM
expected vix to close over 1984 today.... last 1938...
325
suggests lower prices in coming hours days
324
my software says the marketmakers continue selling into this,, at 108pm, and now again
320
the qqqq is starting to break down out of its bear rising wedge here... suggesting downward in the coming days
254
my software says the MM are on the bid, selling into this
248
inability to push the q's to 45 on light volume is not bullish
242
few days ago... sold the calls at 60 cents, covered at 42 cents for 30% profit
235
will buy back some today if they drop (take profits)
234
expecting those 61 cent calls to drop to 30 cents approx
228
filled on the 61 cents
223
selling calls qqqq at 61 cents
220
qqqqq might have just topped for the day....
217
954 TYP
212
qqqq broke above the intraday bull wedge but are now back inside ... loooks like 60min bear wedge forming... bull inside a bear
211
4456 qqqq test could happn still today
208
the WEEKLY qqqq candle setup is bearish....
206
daytrade short setup still valid surprisingly...nervous could exit now breakeven
205
weakening q's
159
the 60min qqqq is dev a bearish rising wedge... takes longer to take effect
156
qqqq marginally violating that wedge to upside now...
154
see what happense here and at 4486....
153
thus far.... the qqqq rejected the 4480 but its first try...see what happns on second try
153
right here is impt test in the qqqq at 4480....watching reaction.... there's more vol here so test impt
151
the q's still have that bull falling wedge intraday...
144
aapl is neutral here to slightly weaker
138
the 60min qqqq candles remain bearish tho.. those are topping pattern candles
136
need to be careful short here... i'm short but watching ... NOW maybe a BULL fall wedge qqqqq 3min all day wedge...
112
there are mixed signals tho... could break higher too so watching for that... bias still down for now for me... if we see a vol move up i'll get bullish
111
if the q's break 4460 with force i might short "down there"... aggressive trade... unsure if it has merit now....i would only do that with heavy volume,,,,
108
hmm my software signaled "marketmakers selling"...earlier today shorted not now.... just another tidbit... that would suggest a move lower into the close
1257
still have the q's short daytrade from 4476...holding it for breakout if it comes..tho today is narrow range
1255
my qqqq scalp just got covered atain at the 4466.... hit 4467
1253
i had a "buy mkt vxx stop mkt 2661 and got filled 2666ish
1251
yea took some 2666 vxx daytrade
1250
scalping 10k shares 4467 -- 4477 gives $1,000 profit each time,,,, $500 for 5000 shrs,
1243
vix looking better here...crawling up
1242
reshorting at the 4476 / 4477 again here.... taking back the scalps i covered
1240
if qqqq hit 4423 then the 42 in that timefram would be suspect... here come the disclaimers lol
1237
make it by next friday...easier to remember
1236
i'll go on record for this: i expect qqqq to 42 in 4 days... last 4472
1231
the q's have 3 bearish 60min candles
1227
reloading q's at 4468....riskier but have profits from b4
1225
why? cuz the 10min 13min are deteriorating....
1224
the qqqq rising 3min stoch represents an opp to reload short in a lil while, vs an opp to go long
1220
scalpers can re-load on 4474 limit short if filled, with stop in place of course... last 4466...
1219
limit orders set for cover at 4433 to catch any quick spike down
1217
of course took some scalp profits as the qqqq retested the prior 4464
1216
the "simple view" rsi 60min under 61 has worked today also....bearish under that.... has been unable to get over it
1215
a bounce to 4473 here would be ok if it comes
1215
4444 q downside target...interesting...target calc comes to same 4444 as 2 days ago...
1213
there go the q's yea..... watch to take profits scalping on the stalls....daytrade holding for more of course... roadmap very good thus far
1211
if i hadnt taken scalp profits b4 at 4465 i would take them here
1211
looks like it will break
1210
if this 4466 holds i'll take scalp profits ... but waiting first to see if breaks lower...could bounce here
1209
poss bear HS pattern forming in 3min q's
1207
one more pop to qqqq 4480 wont damage the short setup,,
1205
this is the inverse of what we saw yesterday.... look at 10AM to 1PM yest and compare to today in same time frame... we haave a bear pattern mimicing the bull pattern from yest
1156
qqqq stall at 4464 expected, will take some scalp profits there for 2nd time if able, and hold rest for better profits
1154
backtest could go to 4479ish if it comes....doesnt always backtest,,, could go in narrow boring range here
1153
ok the q's have broken my 3rd and usually final UTL....now a backtest up would be ok... then down below the 4462 would seal the daytrade short,,, scalpers taking some profits there for the 2nd time, and daytraders holding for the lower levels
1149
q's "should hold here a little... if not then the 3rd UTL is very weak
1147
this 3rd qqqq UTL could hold here an push the qqqq to 4486ish... or could break...watrching
1144
a break of 4474 might do it for q's ....hard to tell...there is poss 3rd UTL there...
1145
a 3min close in the q's under 4463 would be bearish for daytrades
1142
ok the qqqq breaking it's 2nd 2min UTL... should fall moderately to form the 3rd and final utl before a fall and shorts kick in .. thus far qqqq is following the daytrade roadmap from 10:00 AM
1141
4480 q resist here
1129
11:34am should give either under 1170 or over 1178,,, bias down
1128
q's have a triple bear diverg forming 3min
1126
possible qqqq break up or down at 1134.... nothing dramatic
1123
q's breaking utl#2 here.... #3 to form,,, another lil push up possible, then down i expect
1120
the q's 13min chart continues to weaken, forming a backdrop for the daytrade short....
1120
4470 is utl#2 support
1119
the q's 2min chartis on its 2nd UTL of 3 normal... expecting to break the 2nd UTL lower, form a 3rd UTL, then fall
1113
looking for q to hold under 4477 here....
1108
scalpers would take the 1% profits here in typ
1100
15min bear harami candles in the q's
1100
that q short is working,, strengthening
1047
i remain daytrade short the qqqq 300% position size... trade premise still valid for me
1045
considering aapl short at 208ish... UNSURE... setup incomplete... might go long instead... aapl looks ready for a big move ... but my setup is not there yet... not likely to get the setup till next week
1042
many R layers close together in the q's "up here"
1040
daytrade short q premise still valid to me,,,,i remain short from 4476
1040
my work suggests that this is not as bullish as it appears.... yet
1038
at the very least, even if this is a qqqq breakout,,, i would expect a baktest to its broken UTL 60min
1035
a 15min close under 4460 would be fantastic for shorts if it comes...last 4471
1031
grrr i could not get a fill on TYP so directly shorting qqqq here... typ vol abysmal....4476... shorting 3x # of q shares to mimic the typ
1027
daytrade typ at 951... qqqq 4471ish ... qqqq could see 4480/90/4505 but trying the short q here
1022
if qqqq sustain over 4505ish i will likely dump my TYP and look for re-entry, or maybe even long
1018
aapl rite at 204 R.... see if it can break it higher for 208
1016
qqqq trying for 4481 target up...last 4462... so those r micro up and down side trgts
1013
my fxp china short doing better than short qqqq.. as expected... yest i traded some of the q shorts in for fxp, as posted when i said "forget TYP"
1011
micro look... watching if qqqq halts at 4458 instead of 4460... or if it hurdles 4460
1006
simple view: while qqqq 60min rsi < 66 (pref < 61) qqqq bearish... 14 period rsi... i use other indicator combos...thats just a quick glance view
1004
charts suggest 4440 will break
1004
qqqq 4440 break should give 4432
959
i'm short qqqq but as mentioned several times, i still do NOT LIKE the fact that acc/dist has a bull diverg BUT Money Flow is neutral ... the ADX is neutral right now suggesting sideways
955
aapl is trying to push over 203 R but there's more R at 204 R. if 204 breaks then 208 trgt
951
the qqqq 4460 is impt pivot...will it act as support or R? watching
950
i'm watching the ung reaction to 896 test... breakout? reject? consolodate? then i might take a position
947
fxp stop 883 for now. alt stops 911 and 899
942
4440 4432 qqqq down targets ...last 4447... see if the supports hold or break lower
939
paas near breakeven now,,,still short
937
PAAS short silve gapped up but is putting in a bear shooting star...
811
charts right now suggest a break below the 1101 before 9:30 AM is possible, tho the range 1101-08 could easily continue until more volume comes after 930. but bias is down now
7:54 AM
ES futures are in a range 1101 to 1108. Between 1101 and 1108 is neutral, a break over 1108 suggests 1110 then 1113, 1120. If 1120 is hurdled and sustained then the bulls could start to get some upside momentum. If bears break under 1101 then targets 1094, 1090, 1085, and if 1085 is broken then 1066 and 1039 are targets down. If 1039 is broken lower, then the bears will have momentum.
The 1085 - 1120 range is very important, and a break either way should determine direction of the bull or bear. I attach great significance to this range because IT IS THE SAME RANGE that ES was in from 11/12 to 12/21.
So today's pivots: under 1101 bearish and over 1108 bullish.
Mid term pivots: under 1085 bearish and over 1120 bullish.
I remain bearish until 1120 is broken to the upside.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
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