Friday, February 26, 2010

friday ramblings (and Thurs eve / Friday pre-market ES Futures)

400
wow!!!! vix hit my exact target at 16:00 pm.... 1984




350
more selling here....for me (10 cent price drop)

329 PM
expected vix to close over 1984 today.... last 1938...



324
my software says the marketmakers continue selling into this,, at 108pm, and now again

320
the qqqq is starting to break down out of its bear rising wedge here... suggesting downward in the coming days

248
inability to push the q's to 45 on light volume is not bullish

242
few days ago... sold the calls at 60 cents, covered at 42 cents for 30% profit



Inaccurate:

211
4456 qqqq test could happn still today



400
wow!!!! vix hit my exact target at 16:00 pm.... 1984
 
350
more selling here....for me

349
sell programs on my software now
 
347
the VIX 1957 target hit.. :).... 1984 next .... hit exeactly 1957 and backed down
 
 
346
adding more qqqq shorts swing

342
1957 vix and 1984 targets on vix

341
vix climbing toward my 1984 target up from 1938...last 1947

339
i have a SWING SHORT qqqq signal if the qqqq close under 4474

329 PM
expected vix to close over 1984 today.... last 1938...

325
suggests lower prices in coming hours days

324
my software says the marketmakers continue selling into this,, at 108pm, and now again

320
the qqqq is starting to break down out of its bear rising wedge here... suggesting downward in the coming days

254
my software says the MM are on the bid, selling into this

248
inability to push the q's to 45 on light volume is not bullish

242
few days ago... sold the calls at 60 cents, covered at 42 cents for 30% profit

235
will buy back some today if they drop (take profits)

234
expecting those 61 cent calls to drop to 30 cents approx

228
filled on the 61 cents

223
selling calls qqqq at 61 cents

220
qqqqq might have just topped for the day....

217
954 TYP

212
qqqq broke above the intraday bull wedge but are now back inside ... loooks like 60min bear wedge forming... bull inside a bear

211
4456 qqqq test could happn still today

208
the WEEKLY qqqq candle setup is bearish....

206
daytrade short setup still valid surprisingly...nervous could exit now breakeven

205
weakening q's

159
the 60min qqqq is dev a bearish rising wedge... takes longer to take effect

156
qqqq marginally violating that wedge to upside now...

154
see what happense here and at 4486....

153
thus far.... the qqqq rejected the 4480 but its first try...see what happns on second try

153
right here is impt test in the qqqq at 4480....watching reaction.... there's more vol here so test impt

151
the q's still have that bull falling wedge intraday...

144
aapl is neutral here to slightly weaker

138
the 60min qqqq candles remain bearish tho.. those are topping pattern candles

136
need to be careful short here... i'm short but watching ... NOW maybe a BULL fall wedge qqqqq 3min all day wedge...

112
there are mixed signals tho... could break higher too so watching for that... bias still down for now for me... if we see a vol move up i'll get bullish

111
if the q's break 4460 with force i might short "down there"... aggressive trade... unsure if it has merit now....i would only do that with heavy volume,,,,

108
hmm my software signaled "marketmakers selling"...earlier today shorted not now.... just another tidbit... that would suggest a move lower into the close

1257
still have the q's short daytrade from 4476...holding it for breakout if it comes..tho today is narrow range

1255
my qqqq scalp just got covered atain at the 4466.... hit 4467

1253
i had a "buy mkt vxx stop mkt 2661 and got filled 2666ish

1251
yea took some 2666 vxx daytrade

1250
scalping 10k shares 4467 -- 4477 gives $1,000 profit each time,,,, $500 for 5000 shrs,

1243
vix looking better here...crawling up

1242
reshorting at the 4476 / 4477 again here.... taking back the scalps i covered

1240
if qqqq hit 4423 then the 42 in that timefram would be suspect... here come the disclaimers lol

1237
make it by next friday...easier to remember

1236
i'll go on record for this: i expect qqqq to 42 in 4 days... last 4472

1231
the q's have 3 bearish 60min candles

1227
reloading q's at 4468....riskier but have profits from b4

1225
why? cuz the 10min 13min are deteriorating....

1224
the qqqq rising 3min stoch represents an opp to reload short in a lil while, vs an opp to go long

1220
scalpers can re-load on 4474 limit short if filled, with stop in place of course... last 4466...

1219
limit orders set for cover at 4433 to catch any quick spike down

1217
of course took some scalp profits as the qqqq retested the prior 4464

1216
the "simple view" rsi 60min under 61 has worked today also....bearish under that.... has been unable to get over it

1215
a bounce to 4473 here would be ok if it comes

1215
4444 q downside target...interesting...target calc comes to same 4444 as 2 days ago...

1213
there go the q's yea..... watch to take profits scalping on the stalls....daytrade holding for more of course... roadmap very good thus far
 
 
1211
if i hadnt taken scalp profits b4 at 4465 i would take them here

1211
looks like it will break

1210
if this 4466 holds i'll take scalp profits ... but waiting first to see if breaks lower...could bounce here

1209
poss bear HS pattern forming in 3min q's

1207
one more pop to qqqq 4480 wont damage the short setup,,

1205
this is the inverse of what we saw yesterday.... look at 10AM to 1PM yest and compare to today in same time frame... we haave a bear pattern mimicing the bull pattern from yest

1156
qqqq stall at 4464 expected, will take some scalp profits there for 2nd time if able, and hold rest for better profits

1154
backtest could go to 4479ish if it comes....doesnt always backtest,,, could go in narrow boring range here

1153
ok the q's have broken my 3rd and usually final UTL....now a backtest up would be ok... then down below the 4462 would seal the daytrade short,,, scalpers taking some profits there for the 2nd time, and daytraders holding for the lower levels

1149
q's "should hold here a little... if not then the 3rd UTL is very weak

1147
this 3rd qqqq UTL could hold here an push the qqqq to 4486ish... or could break...watrching

1144
a break of 4474 might do it for q's ....hard to tell...there is poss 3rd UTL there...

1145
a 3min close in the q's under 4463 would be bearish for daytrades

1142
ok the qqqq breaking it's 2nd 2min UTL... should fall moderately to form the 3rd and final utl before a fall and shorts kick in .. thus far qqqq is following the daytrade roadmap from 10:00 AM

1141
4480 q resist here

1129
11:34am should give either under 1170 or over 1178,,, bias down

1128
q's have a triple bear diverg forming 3min

1126
possible qqqq break up or down at 1134.... nothing dramatic

1123
q's breaking utl#2 here.... #3 to form,,, another lil push up possible, then down i expect

1120
the q's 13min chart continues to weaken, forming a backdrop for the daytrade short....

1120
4470 is utl#2 support

1119
the q's 2min chartis on its 2nd UTL of 3 normal... expecting to break the 2nd UTL lower, form a 3rd UTL, then fall

1113
looking for q to hold under 4477 here....

1108
scalpers would take the 1% profits here in typ

1100
15min bear harami candles in the q's

1100
that q short is working,, strengthening

1047
i remain daytrade short the qqqq 300% position size... trade premise still valid for me

1045
considering aapl short at 208ish... UNSURE... setup incomplete... might go long instead... aapl looks ready for a big move ... but my setup is not there yet... not likely to get the setup till next week

1042
many R layers close together in the q's "up here"

1040
daytrade short q premise still valid to me,,,,i remain short from 4476

1040
my work suggests that this is not as bullish as it appears.... yet

1038
at the very least, even if this is a qqqq breakout,,, i would expect a baktest to its broken UTL 60min

1035
a 15min close under 4460 would be fantastic for shorts if it comes...last 4471

1031
grrr i could not get a fill on TYP so directly shorting qqqq here... typ vol abysmal....4476... shorting 3x # of q shares to mimic the typ

1027
daytrade typ at 951... qqqq 4471ish ... qqqq could see 4480/90/4505 but trying the short q here

1022
if qqqq sustain over 4505ish i will likely dump my TYP and look for re-entry, or maybe even long

1018
aapl rite at 204 R.... see if it can break it higher for 208

1016
qqqq trying for 4481 target up...last 4462... so those r micro up and down side trgts

1013
my fxp china short doing better than short qqqq.. as expected... yest i traded some of the q shorts in for fxp, as posted when i said "forget TYP"

1011
micro look... watching if qqqq halts at 4458 instead of 4460... or if it hurdles 4460

1006
simple view: while qqqq 60min rsi < 66 (pref < 61) qqqq bearish... 14 period rsi... i use other indicator combos...thats just a quick glance view

1004
charts suggest 4440 will break

1004
qqqq 4440 break should give 4432

959
i'm short qqqq but as mentioned several times, i still do NOT LIKE the fact that acc/dist has a bull diverg BUT Money Flow is neutral ... the ADX is neutral right now suggesting sideways

955
aapl is trying to push over 203 R but there's more R at  204 R. if 204 breaks then 208 trgt

951
the qqqq 4460 is impt pivot...will it act as support or R? watching

950
i'm watching the ung reaction to 896 test... breakout? reject? consolodate? then i might take a position

947
fxp stop 883 for now. alt stops 911 and 899

942
4440 4432 qqqq down targets ...last 4447... see if the supports hold or break lower

939
paas near breakeven now,,,still short

937
PAAS short silve gapped up but is putting in a bear shooting star...

811
charts right now suggest a break below the 1101 before 9:30 AM is possible, tho the range 1101-08 could easily continue until more volume comes after 930. but bias is down now

7:54 AM
ES futures are in a range 1101 to 1108. Between 1101 and 1108 is neutral, a break over 1108 suggests 1110 then 1113, 1120. If 1120 is hurdled and sustained then the bulls could start to get some upside momentum. If bears break under 1101 then targets 1094, 1090, 1085, and if 1085 is broken then 1066 and 1039 are targets down. If 1039 is broken lower, then the bears will have momentum.

The 1085 - 1120 range is very important, and a break either way should determine direction of the bull or bear. I attach great significance to this range because IT IS THE SAME RANGE that ES was in from 11/12 to 12/21.

So today's pivots:  under 1101 bearish and over 1108 bullish.
Mid term pivots:    under 1085 bearish and over 1120 bullish.

I remain bearish until 1120 is broken to the upside.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

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